second international seville seminar on future-oriented technology analysis (fta): impacts on policy...

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology

Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making

28th- 29th September 2006

Foresight on Information Society Technologies Lessons Learnt for Policy

Intelligence Building in Europe

Corina Pascu, Jean-Claude Burgelman, Lajos Nyiri, Ramón CompañóDG JRC IPTS

Foresight on Information Society Technologies:Lessons Learnt for Policy



Intelligence Building in Europe Overview

•Context

•Objectives and Methodology

•IST-related Findings and Lessons

•Impact

•Conclusions

Context





ICTs drive current techno-economic changes (revolution)

Growing demand for detecting signals of ICT-enhanced disruptive effects

CHALLENGES:

1.ICTs have a pervasive, constantly changing nature

2.Modest Experience in European level foresight

exercise in IST

Objectives

FISTERA was launched in September 2002 just after the ‘burst of the Internet bubble in order to …

It aimed at: •creating a pan-European platform on foresight in IST, involving a wide range of key EU and national IST policy makers and players•providing elements for creating a European-wide IST vision•contributing to priority-setting in the context of Information Society





…contribute to a common vision and approach towards the Information Society in an enlarged Europe in 2010.

Methodology

Compendium of Foresight tools: •Systematic collection and analysis of IST-related foresight exercises undertaken by selected countries•Specific studies by recognised experts in the field;•bibliometric/statistical analyses and/or case studies;•Participatory tools including surveys, scenario building and online Delphi; •“Future-thinking” workshops;•Technology Trajectory Concept.





Policy recommendations

Technology Trajectory Model

Analyses (patent, bibliometric…)

Synthesis of foresight studies & technology

roadmapsScenario

building tools

Surveys

FISTERA Integrated

Methodology

Foresight studies tech roadmaps

IST-related findings

FISTERA delivered recommendations for decision makers along three axes:

•social and environmental needs and possible technological options;

•trends where social needs and technology trends come together in an integrated way;

•current and possible future technological developments.





Lessons

•Priority-setting requires constant interaction with and participation of actors and in particular stakeholders;

•A high degree of participation is key. This is particularly difficult for a pan-European exercise;

• Socio-economic considerations of ICT impact must be integrated in the foresight exercises from the early stages;





Impact(#1)

General remarks

•ICT policy making is a complex procedure with a considerable number of actors;•Impact on ICT policy making is largely indirect (e.g. ‘forward-thinking’ culture, changing mindsets, common visions of the future of IST, cooperation between stakeholders).





Impact(#2)

Structuring of impacts on European level policy/strategy formulation by:

1. Direct impacts via decision making institutions or key advisory bodies

2. Indirect impacts through institutional actors and/or improving framework conditions





Impacts

Direct impacts via key institutions/bodies

•Contribution to research policy in IST (preparation of FP7)

–EU Member States’ level: IST Research Directors Forum–EU Key Advisory bodies: IST Advisory Group (ISTAG)

•(Feeding & generating) Debates about the future of IST in Europe

–Support to eEurope advisory board–European think-tanks (e.g. EPC)–Exchange of views with industry associations (e.g. ETNO)





Impacts

Indirect impact through institutions

•IST industry–Technology Trajectories Concept used by industry and academia and societies (e.g. IEEE) as at ‘thinking tool’–SwissCom’s Vision 2015

•National Foresight practitioners–FISTERA Methodology ‘inspired’ Foresight exercises in Romania, Hungary, Austria, Poland and Colombia

(NISTEP- Japanese National Institute of Science and Technology Policy’s review on FISTERA)





Impacts

Improving the framework conditions policy formulation

•Creating a Pan-European Foresight Platform in IST–Network-building: > 20 workshops all over Europe + Final Conference. –Testing Online Delphi at European level with ~600 respondents–FISTERA website 300K Hints–Technology Trajectories online tool 4000–6000 Hits/month, 500-600 Visits (users)/month

•Raising awareness to the public–Numerous dissemination activities, including reports, studies, articles, books, CD-rom, etc.





Conclusions#1

•The impact and benefits of Foresight can be direct but largely indirect. Indirect impacts are equally important. •Actors (EU officials, industry associations, general public, etc) have different degrees of influence on policy formulation, but they all have their role. Outcomes of a Foresight project must be tailored to the needs of the different stakeholders. •Difficult to find an adequate balance of participants for a pan-European foresight exercise, in terms of stakeholders, geography and technology areas





Conclusions#2

•A foresight platform on IST is still far away for being operational. However, the availability of such a platform would be a great asset.

•The success of the foresight exercise increases whenever decision makers go beyond the role of mere receivers of the end products (e.g. reports) but become an integral part of the foresight process. The active participation of relevant stakeholders, especially from decision. makers, from the very early beginning is a key challenge! (particularly important for IST area).





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