seced 2015
TRANSCRIPT
@FORTRESS_EUhttp://fortress-project.eu
Cascading effects & community recovery
SECED 9-10 JulySession: Community dimensions of vulnerability and impact
Kim HagenTrilateral Research & Consulting
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
• Cascading effects: Situations where a disruption of one element, such as infrastructure, causes a sequence of disruptive events, which can cause deleterious impacts far beyond the initial impacts of the crisis (Little, 2010)
• Social impacts and community recovery
• Fieldwork carried out on the Solomon Islands
• Categorisation of triggers of cascading effects developed in the FORTRESS project.
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
Fieldwork Solomon Islands
• Aftermath of 2007 SI earthquake and tsunami
• Social long-term impacts and cascading effects: how did communities recover and what influenced their paths of recovery?
• Research 4, 5, and 6 years after the earthquake and tsunami hit
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
FORTRESS
• Foresight tools for responding to cascading effects in a crisis
• 3 year EU-funded project
• To identify and gain insight into cascading effects in crises and disasters
• Develop an incident evolution tool and decision-support tool to assist decision-makers in preparing for crises with cascading effects
• Analysis of 9 disastrous events
− 1999 Galtür avalanche disaster, Austria− 2000 Enschede fireworks factory explosion,
the Netherlands− 2000 Central European Floods− 2003 European Heatwave, France − 2005 London attacks, UK
− 2003 European Heatwave, France − 2005 London attacks, UK− Eyafjallajökull volcanic eruption, Iceland/UK− 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan− 2012 Hurricane Sandy, USA− 2014 MH17 plane crash, Ukraine
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
FORTRESS
• Disruption of
• Information relation
• Organisation relation
• Supply relation
• Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation
• Disturbance relation
• Pre-disaster conditions
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
FORTRESS
• Disruption of
• Information relation
• Organisation relation
• Supply relation
• Malfunctioning of legal and regulatory relation
• Disturbance relation
• Pre-disaster conditions
Are these triggers also applicable to cascading effects of a disaster in a developing context?
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
Triggers of cascading effects
• Lack of inter-agency collaboration, cooperation and management
• Absence of guidelines/protocols on how to respond
- Duplication of work, multiple needs assessments
• Chaos needs to be addressed
Malfunctioning of organisational relations
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Triggers of cascading effects
• New division of work
- new round of assessments
- previous assessments disregarded
• Implications of new divisions of work were not fully understood by affected population
• Unrealistic expectations of aid
Malfunctioning of communication and
information relations
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
Triggers of cascading effects
• Unrealistic expectations of aid: people received less than expected & perceived aid to be missing
-Wantokism
− suspicion that other wantok groups confiscated aid
-Position of leaders and elders
− suspicion that powerful people within the community confiscated aid
Pre-disaster conditions
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Long-term cascading effects
• Inter- and intra community tensions associated with aid triggered conflict
- Communities split up and new villages were created
- Community cohesion decreased drastically
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
Discussion
• Malfunctioning of organisational relations,
• Malfunctioning of communication and information relations &
• Pre-disaster conditions
Combination of triggers that caused deleterious effects on community level
• Variation in triggers of cascading effects
• Unintended effects of disaster management and aid
• Study of hazards in holistic manner.
@FORTRESS_EU
http://fortress-project.eu
THANK YOU
If you have any further questions or more information, e-mail
Kim Hagen: [email protected]
FORTRESS has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research, technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 607579.