SEASONAL  FIRE  EARLY  WARNING  SYSTEM  

Rizaldi  Boer,  M.  Ardiansyah,  A.  Faqih,  Achmad  Siddik  Thoha,  Syamsoe  Dwi  Jatmiko,  Anter  Parulian  Situmorang    

CCROM  SEAP-­‐Bogor  Agricultural  University  E-­‐mail:  rizaldiboer@gmail.com  HP:  +62811117660  

h1p://geospasial.bnpb.go.id  

IntroducDon:  General  Standard  OperaDonal  Procedure  for  Disaster  Management  

PREVENTION/MITIGATION  

ANTICIPATION  EMERGENCY  RESPONSE  

REHABILITATION/RECONSTRUCTION  

No  Disasters  Post  Disasters  

Poten9ally  Disaster  will  Occurs  During  Disaster  

Funding  for  Disaster  Management  

•  Indonesian  Government  RegulaDon  No.  22/2008  on  Financing  and  Aid  Management:  –  ArDcle  12  reads:  Funds  for  disaster  management  in  the  pre-­‐disaster  phase  shall  be  allocated  for  acDviDes  under  the  following  circumstances:    

•  No  incident  reported;  and    •  There  is  potenVal  for  a  disaster  to  occur.    

–  ArDcle  14,  paragraph  (1),  reads:  The  use  of  the  funds  for  disaster  management  when  there  is  potenVal  for  a  disaster  to  occur  referred  to  ArDcle  12,  point  b,  includes  their  use  for:    

•  Preparedness  acDviDes;    •  Early  warning  system  development;  and    •  Disaster  miDgaDon  acDviDes.    

Hotspot  density  increase  significantly  during  longer  dry  season  (El  Nino  years)  in  Kalteng  

El Nino information and rainfall is very potential to be used for the development of seasonal fire early warning system

In Indonesia, long DS is often associated with El Nino events

DEFINING  FIRE  RISK  

• Fire  brigade  (Manggala  Agni)  

• Fire  care  community  • Extension  services/field  facilitators  

• CommuniVes’/farmers’  insVtuVons  

• PopulaVon  • GDP  of  Districts  •  Indigenous  land  boundary  

• Main  source  of  income  

• Land  cover  • Depth  of  peatland  • Land  system  or  landscape  

• Presence  of  Water  management  

•  Hotspot  density  •  Distance  to  road  •  Distance  to  river  •  Distance  to  village  center  

•  Distance  form  HTI/Oil    Palm  Licenses  

•  Readiness  of  HTI/HPH/etc   Exposure   Bio-­‐physic  

(SensiDvity)  

AdapDve  capacity  

Social  and  economic  (SensiDvity)  

Forest  Fire  Vulnerability  

Rescaled  score  of  E,S,AC  based  

on  its  relaDonship  to  

hotspot  

Composite  Mapping  Analysis    

FV  =  f  (E,S,AC)    

Fire  Vulnerability  

Maps  of  fire  vulnerability  can  be  updated  regularly  as  land  use  data  and  others  available  and  also  based  on  spaDal  plan  

Defining  Fire  Risk  

Rainfall/Hotspot    PredicVon    

Fire    Vulnerability  

 Below  

Normal/High  

 Normal/Medium  

 Above  

Normal/Low  

Very  High   VH   H   M_H  

High   H   M-­‐H   M  

Medium   M-­‐H   M   M-­‐L  

Low   M   M-­‐L   L  

Very  Low   M-­‐L   L   VL  

Fire  Risk  PredicDon  

Model  Hotspot  

Rainfall  forecast  (good  skill)  

Vulnerability  Map  

Y  =  f(Rain)  +  error  

Fire  risk  

Hotspot  PredicDon  

(1)  

(2)  

(3)  

Peluang(HS(melewati((Batas(ambang(

Tingkat((Kerentanan(

(Tinggi((>60%)(

(Sedang((40>60)%(

(Rendah((<40%)(

Sangat(tinggi( ST( T( S>T(Tinggi( T( S>T( S(Sedang( S>T( S( S>R(Rendah( S( S>R( R(Sangat(rengdh( S>R( R( SR((

Fire  risk  classificaVon  •  VH  =  very  high  •  H  =  high  • M-­‐H  =  medium  –  high  • M  =  mediun  •  L-­‐M=  low  –  medium  •  L  =  low  •  VL  =  very  low  

50  x  

28  forecast  

Determ

inaD

on  process    

of  fire  risk  level  

Vulnerability  map   Hotspot/Rainfall  predicDon  

Fire  risk  map  

Peluang(HS(melewati((Batas(ambang(

Tingkat((Kerentanan(

(Tinggi((>60%)(

(Sedang((40>60)%(

(Rendah((<40%)(

Sangat(tinggi( ST( T( S>T(Tinggi( T( S>T( S(Sedang( S>T( S( S>R(Rendah( S( S>R( R(Sangat(rengdh( S>R( R( SR((

Fire  Risk  System    (h1p://kebakaranhutan.or.id)  

Feature:  #1  Fire  Vulnerability  Map  of  Central  Kalimantan  Province  

Feature:  #2  Fire  Vulnerability  Map  of  Kapuas  District  at  Central  Kalimantan  

Feature:  #3  Fire  Vulnerability  Map  of  Kapuas  District  At  Central  Kalimantan  

Check  land

 cover  of  h

igh  

vulnerable  area  

PredicDon  of  Fire  Risk  Map  for  Sep  2015  

Fire  Risk  InformaDon  by  village    (1-­‐3  month  lead  Dme)  

LaVtude    (a-­‐b)  

Longitude    (c-­‐d)  

Name  of  Villages  

Fire  Risk  Index  

a1-­‐b1   c1-­‐d1   Village  1   High  a2-­‐b2   c2-­‐d2   Village  2,  3   Medium  a3-­‐b3   c3-­‐d3   Village  4   Very  High  …   …   …   …  a4-­‐b4   c4-­‐d4   Village  x,  y   High  

Use of FRS for Fire Risk Management

PREVENTION   ANTICIPATION   EMERGENCY  RESPONSE  

REHABILITATION  

Epilogue  •  FRS  can  be  used  to  provide  early  informaDon  about  the  possible  danger  of  forest  and  land  fire  –  PrevenVon:  provides  analysis  to  predict  the  potenDal  forest  and  land  fire  

–  Control:  disseminate  data  and  informaDon  on  near-­‐real-­‐Dme  to  certain  stakeholders  for  fire  control  

–  Law  Enforcement:  provides  data  and  fact-­‐based  informaDon  on  violaDons  of  forest  and  land  fire  to  be  followed  up  legally  

•  IntervenDon  that  leads  to  lower  hotspot  number  during  the  abnormal  drought  years  may  indicate  lowering  GHG  emissions  from  peat  fire  (basis  for  incen2ves)  

Toward  Permanent  SoluDon    (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

•  RegulaDons  for  corporate  sustainability  (Landscape  management);  e.g.  mosaic  systems,  such  as  obligaDon  to  have  reservoir  per  unit  area  of  the  concession,  in  addiDon  to  those  already  defined  in  the  permit.  

•  Review  or  audit  compliance  and  environmental  permits;  the  imposiDon  of  sancDons  for  violaDons  

•  InsDtuDonal  Strengthening  &  Leadership  at  the  district  and  village  •  Design  of  policies  for  land  clearing  without  burning  (regulaDon,  

subsidies,  assistance,  etc.)  •  Development  of  educaDon  modules  and  generaDon  love-­‐environment  

(Adiwiyata)  •  InsDtuDonal  strengthening  in  society  (grassroots  /  local  level),  led  by  

the  Concerned  CiDzens  of  Fire  (Fire  Fighters)  and  student/student.  •  Community  Alliance  Dered  from  naDonal  level  to  the  District  /  

Municipal/District  /Village  

New  Approach  in  Fire  Management  in  2015  (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

•  The  instrument  technology  and  analy2cal  support  legal  ac2on  

•  Control  instruments  for  HOTSPOT  control,  air  quality  as  a  result  of  land  and  forest  fires  (ISPU  and  PM10)  and  health  problems  caused  by  land  and  forest  fires  (ISPA)  

•  Enforcement  of  the  law:  – MulD-­‐doors  (using  different  laws  and  regula2ons)  –  Second  line  law  enforcement  – AdministraDve  step  law  in  parallel  to  Criminal  Law  and  Civil  

(Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

CollaboraDon  with  Directorate  General  of  Law  Enforcement  and  Police  to  seal  fired  area  for  further  invesDgaDon  (police  line  and  sealed  board)  ~  deterrent  effect  (‘efek  jera’)  

Law  Enforcement  Efforts  in  Riau  Province  (Oct  2015)  (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

No  of  cases  Police  Unit   Burned  

Area  (ha)  No  of  Suspect  

Personal    Corporate  

68  Suspects  and  23  cases  completed  (P21)  Other  Compliance  Instrument:  -­‐  Economic  incenDves/DisincenDves  -­‐  EducaDon  

IncenDve  for  CommuniDes  (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

•  Providing  subsidy  and  equipment  support  for  land  clearing  without  burning  (PLTB)  

•  Procurement  blocking  the  canal  system  to  maintain  water  level  (peat)  •  Fire  exDnguishers  forest  and  land  •  Environmentally  friendly  agriculture  equipment's  •  Training  rural  economic  development  with  environment  friendly  vision  •  Assist  markeDng  agricultural  products  for  farmers  who  use  PLTB  •  Help  ferDlizer  and  ameliorant  in  order  to  increase  soil  ferDlity  without  

using  the  ash  •  GranDng  seeds  and  rights  to  culDvate  shrubs  to  rehabilitate  peat  using  

commodiDes  tolerant  to  shallow  ground  water  level  •  Property  tax  holiday  for  people  who  do  not  burning  •  Scholarships  for  children  /  community  members  who  are  not  burning  

forest  and  land  (government  or  CSR)  •  Discount  for  electricity  cost  •  The  assistance  program  or  provide  facilitaDon  for  community  in  

developing  agribusiness  acDviDes  that  do  not  burning  forest  and  land  etc  

IncenDves  for  Companies  (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

•  Tax  holiday  for  companies  that  acDvely  implement  forest  fire  control  in  its  concession  area  and  can  prevent  forest  and  land  fires  widely  (recently  on  HCS)  

•  RecommendaDons  for  the  cerDficaDon  process  of  the  company.  

•  Priority  facilitate  the  financing  of  the  company.  •  Guarantee  the  legality  of  the  status  of  the  region  

considering  many  overlapping  land  status  •  Award  in  the  field  of  environment  for  companies  that  do  

not  do  and  can  prevent  forest  and  land  fires  •  Simple  licensing  procedure  with  longer  permit  duraDon  for  

green  investment  acDviDes  •  Etc  

DisincenDves  (Panjaitan,  Ministry  of  Environment  of  Forestry,  2015)  

•  Law  enforcement  at  all  level  (communiDes  and  the  companies)  

•  Provide  AdministraDve  sancDons  (freezing  permits,  reducing  the  area  of  the  license,  the  imposiDon  of  fines,  revocaDon  of  licenses)  

•  The  imposiDon  of  civil  penalDes  /  fines  and  criminal  sancDons