Sean P MacDonald Labor Market Analyst 914-997-4108

usaspm@labor.state.ny.us

NYS Department of Labor, Division of NYS Department of Labor, Division of Research and Statistics.Research and Statistics.

Labor Market Resources and Overview of Orange/Ulster Economic Developments

•Current Population, population projections

• Per capita and median household income: Orange, Ulster and Hudson Valley Region.

•Educational attainment

•Labor market/Job Growth Trends

•Commuting patterns

•Resources for Career Exploration and Planning

•Useful Labor Market websites

Orange County Population Trends

•At a rate of close to 6.4 percent, Orange County has been the fastest growing county in New York State since 2000, gaining 22,000 new residents.

•At a rate of 1.9 percent, Ulster County has gained +3,362 new residents since 2000. Its growth rate ranked fifth among Hudson Valley counties.

•All counties in the region have experienced population growth rates higher than the state’s of 1.1 percent since 2000.

Population projections by age: 2000 – 2020 Percent change by county and New York State

CountyCounty 0 – 190 – 19 20 – 2420 – 24 25 – 4425 – 44 45 – 6445 – 64 65+65+

DutchessDutchess - 1.7%- 1.7% +21.6%+21.6% -4.6%-4.6% +14%+14% +50.7%+50.7%

OrangeOrange +10.6+10.6 +38.5+38.5 +6.4+6.4 +20.8+20.8 +53.3+53.3

SullivanSullivan +12.2+12.2 +29.3+29.3 +3.3+3.3 +16.4+16.4 +40.3+40.3

UlsterUlster +9.3+9.3 +22.7+22.7 +6.5+6.5 +14.6+14.6 +40.1+40.1

New York New York StateState

-3.4-3.4 +9.8+9.8 -8.4-8.4 +17.5+17.5 +30.4+30.4

Source: Cornell University, New York State Statistical Information System, Projection data by county.

Population Projected to grow strongly through 2020

•Both Orange and Ulster Counties are projected to experience strong population growth among residents 19 and under.

•…And in a reversal of the 1990 – 2000 trend, both counties – as well as the region - are expected to make strong gains among the younger worker age groups that declined sharply through 2000:

•20 to 24 year olds and

•25 to 44 year olds

•Both counties, as well as the entire region will also see tremendous expansion among older workers- those aged 45 and over.

Projections conclusions

•Population aged 20 –24 begins to increase – aging of 0 – 17 population of 2000.

•The post Baby Boom generation (those born after 1964 slows somewhat. (25 to 44 year olds).

•The Baby Boom generation, now aged 45 – 64 increases significantly.

•The older population, those over 65 years, also expands significantly.

•Potential work force will be both young (20 – 24) and older – aged 45+

Income Demographics:

Per capita income 2001 State rank

•Orange County $28,081 20

•Ulster County $26,023 23

• Hudson Valley $42,385

•New York State $35,626

•The region’s per capita income outranked that of NYS in 2001.

Median Household Income: Hudson Valley Counties & New York State 20031

Orange: $57,791

Dutchess: $84,465

Ulster:2 $42,551

New York State: $46,195

1. Source: American Community Survey, New York State and counties

2. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 (data for 2003 not available)

Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin, Orange County: 1990 - 2000

84.877.6

6.7 7.51.2 1.5

711.6

0.1 0.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

White Black Asian Hispanic Other

1990

2000

Change in Distribution of Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: Ulster County, 1990-2000

90.5% 85.5%

4.1%5.1%

3.9%6.2%

1.1% 1.2% 0.1% 0.2%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

White Black Hispanic Asian Other

1990

2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1990 and 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older

High school graduate or higher

79.8

84

77.2

81.8

76.6

81.7

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

Dutchess Orange Ulster

19902000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older

Associate degree or higher

33.3

36.7

26.6

30.7 29.8

33.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Dutchess Orange Ulster

19902000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

Percent change in educational attainment, 1990 – 2000: persons 25 years and older

Bachelor’s degree or higher

24.8

27.6

19.5

22.5 21.6

25

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Dutchess Orange Ulster

1990

2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

In all counties, rates of educational attainment have risen since 1990.

•The population of the counties and the region is becoming more racially and ethnically diverse.

•It is also becoming more educated.

•The region’s workforce will also become increasingly diverse and encompass more of both younger and older workers over the next 20 years.

Conclusions

Dutchess-Orange and Ulster County Job Growth Trends

• The Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown MSA gained 3,700 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 1.9 percent.

•Job growth was strong across many industries, especially trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade and transportation, warehousing & utilities in particular) educational & health services and leisure & hospitality.

• Ulster County – now known as the Kingston MSA - gained 1,200 new private sector jobs from Feb. 2004 through Feb. 2005, a growth rate of 2.5 percent over the year. • Industries with the strongest job gains included trade, transportation & utilities (retail trade especially) information and leisure & hospitality.

• Both areas outpaced the State’s private sector job growth of 1.2 percent over the same twelve-month period.

2000 Commutation Patterns: Orange County

County Residents At Work 2000% of Total

Persons Working in County 2000% of Total

Total County Residents at Work 152,489 100.0% Total Persons Working in the County 127,659 100.0%Worked in New York State 138,924 91.1% Lived in New York State 122,626 96.1%

Worked in County 99,901 65.5% Lived in County 99,901 78.3%Worked outside County 39,023 25.6% Lived Outside County 22,725 17.8%

Worked in other counties of MSA 18,906 12.4% Lived in other counties of MSA 85,605 67.1%Rensselaer 8,561 5.6% Rensselaer 32,232 25.2%Schenectady 6,653 4.4% Saratoga 26,515 20.8%Saratoga 3,326 2.2% Schenectady 22,450 17.6%Schoharie 217 0.1% Montgomery 2,207 1.7%Montgomery 149 0.1% Schoharie 2,201 1.7%

Worked outside MSA 4,277 2.8% Lived outside MSA 13,952 10.9%Greene 1,441 0.9% Greene 3,537 2.8%Columbia 701 0.5% Columbia 2,947 2.3%Warren 414 0.3% Washington 1,452 1.1%Other 1,721 1.1% Other 6,016 4.7%

Rockland 9,746 6.4% Ulster 8,676 6.8%New York 9,610 6.3% Sullivan 4,900 3.8%Westchester 5,569 3.7% Dutchess 3,828 3.0%Dutchess 5,160 3.4% Rockland 1,739 1.4%Bronx 2,414 1.6% Westchester 1,233 1.0%Ulster 1,995 1.3% Putnam 393 0.3%Kings 1,117 0.7% Queens 224 0.2%Queens 901 0.6% Kings 205 0.2%Sullivan 865 0.6% Bronx 204 0.2%Putnam 499 0.3% Monroe 165 0.1%Other 1,147 0.8% Other 1,158 0.9%

Worked outside of New York State 13,565 8.9% Lived outside of New York State 5,033 3.9%

Total outcommutation 52,588 34.5% Total incommutation 27,758 21.7%

Net Outcommutation: +24,830

2000 Commutation Patterns: Orange County

(county residents working outside county) (county nonresidents working in county)

2000 Commutation Patterns

Ulster County

           

County Residents At Work 2000% of Total

Persons Working in County 2000% of Total

           

Total County Residents at Work 81,726 100.0% Total Persons Working in the County 64,729 100.0%

Worked in New York State 80,542 98.6% Lived in New York State 64,393 99.5%

Worked in County 54,373 66.5% Lived in County 54,373 84.0%

Worked outside County 26,169 32.0% Lived Outside County 10,020 15.5%

Dutchess 10,685 13.1% Dutchess 3,430 5.3%

Orange 8,676 10.6% Orange 1,995 3.1%

New York 1,565 1.9% Sullivan 1,108 1.7%

Westchester 1,157 1.4% Greene 1,083 1.7%

Sullivan 729 0.9% Delaware 439 0.7%

Rockland 579 0.7% Columbia 437 0.7%

Greene 574 0.7% Albany 304 0.5%

Albany 504 0.6% Westchester 237 0.4%

Columbia 393 0.5% Queens 123 0.2%

Putnam 213 0.3% Rockland 89 0.1%

Other 1,094 1.3% Other 775 1.2%

Worked outside of New York State 1,184 1.4% Lived outside of New York State 336 0.5%

           

Total outcommutation 27,353 33.5% Total incommutation 10,356 16.0%

(county residents working outside county)   (county nonresidents working in county)  

           

Net Outcommutation: 16,997

Conclusions:

•More than two-thirds of Orange County residents work in the County. 12.4 percent worked in Dutchess and 6.3 in Manhattan.

•In Ulster County, approximately two-thirds of residents also worked within the county, with most of the rest - almost 24 percent working in neighboring Orange and Dutchess counties.

DUTCHESS COUNTY INDUSTRIES WITH THE LARGEST EMPLOYMENT GROWTH: 2001 - 2004

             

    2004 2004 2001 2001 - 2004 2004

      March March Change Avg. Annual

NAICS Industry Description Firms Emp Emp in emp Wages

             

334 Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing** 25 13,307 8,111 5,196 96,386

611 Educational Services 104 6,692 5,139 1,553 29,778

722 Food Services and Drinking Places 509 6,395 5,415 980 12,578

611 Educational Services (public) 102 10,088 9,358 730 31,204

561 Administrative and Support Services 350 4,783 4,184 599 25,188

624 Social Assistance 172 2,876 2,343 533 17,789

623 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities 97 4,776 4,245 531 25,930

236 Construction of Buildings 341 1,565 1,296 269 39,979

813 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations 181 1,314 1,064 250 20,176

622 Hospitals 5 3,670 3,425 245 35,936

443 Electronics and Appliance Stores 37 657 462 195 29,071

713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 71 1,127 936 191 12,353

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 86 1,647 1,472 175 40,547

425 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents 56 261 89 172 47,664

454 Nonstore Retailers 50 632 529 103 39,864

621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 510 5,259 5,158 101 39,292

424 Merchant Wholesalers, Nondurable Goods 88 621 525 96 33,694

485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) 6 508 414 94 25,496

Orange County Largest Growth Industries: 2001 - 2004

             

    2004 2004 2001 2001 - 2004 2004 Avg.

NAICS Industry Description Firms March Emp March Emp Empl change Ann. Pay

621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 603 5,569 4,567 1,002 39,638

722 Food Services and Drinking Places 627 6,886 6,134 752 12,759

624 Social Assistance 176 3,450 2,803 647 17,309

561 Administrative and Support Services 354 3,872 3,302 570 20,893

928 National Security and International Affairs (public) 4 1,412 873 539 45,283

425 Wholesale Electronic Markets and Agents 112 870 352 518 45,676

541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 764 4,580 4,114 466 38,458

453 Miscellaneous Store Retailers 129 1,779 1,336 443 21,103

444 Building Material and Garden Equipment and Supplies 111 2,032 1,623 409 29,715

452 General Merchandise Stores 44 3,336 3,051 285 17,622

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 127 2,211 1,940 271 38,588

622 Hospitals 6 4,772 4,528 244 31,330

711 Performing Arts, Spectator Sports, and Related Activities 40 348 118 230 23,416

812 Personal and Laundry Services 241 1,390 1,198 192 17,180

622 Hospitals (public) 4 1,254 1,073 181 65,202

485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation (public) 6 627 447 180 24,080

485 Transit and Ground Passenger Transportation 49 1,459 1,282 177 22,109

448 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores 214 2,522 2,368 154 18,483

921 Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 46 5,387 5,260 127 36,113

532 Rental and Leasing Services 64 592 470 122 29,241

713 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 83 1,010 889 121 13,216

524 Insurance Carriers and Related Activities 254 2,318 2,207 111 39,593

ULSTER COUNTY LARGEST GROWTH INDUSTRIES: 2001 - 2004

             

      2004 2001 2001 - 2004 2004

    2004 March March Change Avg. Annual

NAICS Description Units Emp Emp in emp. Wages

722 Food Services and Drinking Places 393 3,965 3,594 371 11,386

611 Educational Services (public) 42 7,727 7,434 293 26,166

621 Ambulatory Health Care Services 273 2,855 2,566 289 33,239

813 Religious, Grantmaking, Civic, Professional Organizations 114 930 707 223 17,216

541 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services 406 1,733 1,547 186 28,365

921 Executive, Legislative, and Other General Gov 29 3,405 3,229 176 33,505

441 Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 95 1,144 975 169 34,994

522 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities 78 1,054 896 158 47,206

491 Postal Service 35 420 263 157 45,586

451 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 50 558 411 147 16,266

531 Real Estate 147 435 326 109 26,711

112 Animal Production 9 164 63 101 26,386

311 Food Manufacturing 26 454 378 76 31,086

321 Wood Product Manufacturing 10 262 193 69 32,922

237 Heavy and Civil Engineering Construction 25 170 102 68 47,876

238 Specialty Trade Contractors 361 1,479 1,414 65 31,415

•The largest growth industries over the last few years are heavily concentrated within:

•Health services

•Educational services

•Administrative & support services

•Leisure & hospitality

•Construction

•Professional & technical services

Conclusions

•The largest employing industries within the county’s biggest and fastest growing industries provides a good indicator of occupations most in demand.

•In most cases, these occupations range from entry-level jobs requiring little training and education to high-level professional, technical and managerial occupations requiring a two-to four-year college degree and beyond.

•This also provides a useful guide to possible career ladders in the industry.

Health Services Occupational Trends: Why is demand for workers expanding so rapidly?

•The Health Services Industry has been one of the Hudson Valley Region’s and Orange County’s fastest growth industries and one of its largest employers.

•Over the past year, the Poughkeepsie-Middletown-Newburgh area gained + 900 new jobs in health care & social assistance. The 7-county region overall gained + 2,700 new jobs in this area.

•Many occupations in the field are projected to continuing adding jobs through 2012. •This points to positive job prospects for those training for professions in the field.

•Demand for workers in health services professions overall are projected to grow by more than 22 percent through 2010.

•The largest gainers are expected to be

•Registered nurses

•Physical therapists

•Pharmacists

•Pharmacy technicians

•Health technologists and technicians ( including medical & clinical lab technicians; cardiovascular technicians; sonographers; surgical technologists).

•Licensed practical nurses

•Medical records & health information technicians

WHY will demand grow in many health related occupations?

•The aging of the population, both regionally and nationally means increased demand for health services and an expansion of employment in the field overall.

•Increased retirements among those in the baby-boom generation will mean increased need to replace workers.

Aging:

•In Orange, Ulster and the region as a whole, the fastest growing portion of the population is in that aged 45 and over.

Replacement:

•A look at the occupational projections for 2002 – 2012 suggests that hiring due to ‘replacement need’ will constitute a large portion of new openings over the next several years.

Among the top twenty occupations with favorable employment prospects through 2010, approximately half are in health and technology-related occupations.

Occupations with Favorable Employment Prospects, 2000 - 2010: Hudson Valley Region

PROJECTED FASTEST GROWTH OCCUPATIONS PROJECTED LARGEST GROWTH OCCUPATIONSPercent increase per year Growth per year

Occupational Title Occupational Title

Network and Computer Systems Administrators 5.2% Registered Nurses 410 Computer Support Specialists 5.1% Home Health Aides 370 Hazardous Materials Removal Workers 4.7% Teacher Assistants 320 Physician Assistants 4.4% Retail Salespersons 320 Database Administrators 4.1% Customer Service Representatives 270 Personal and Home Care Aides 4.0% Office Clerks, General 260 Stonemasons 3.9% Personal and Home Care Aides 230 Medical Records and Health Information Technicians 3.7% Carpenters 210 Ambulance Drivers and Attendants, Except Emergency Medical Technicians3.7% Child Care Workers 200 Sheet Metal Workers 3.5% Cashiers 190 Cardiovascular Technologists and Technicians 3.5% Receptionists and Information Clerks 190 Electricians 3.3% Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 180 Structural Iron and Steel Workers 3.3% Electricians 180 Social and Human Service Assistants 3.2% Computer Support Specialists 170 Helpers--Electricians 3.2% Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 170 Roofers 3.2% Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 170 Special Education Teachers, Preschool, Kindergarten, and Elementary School3.2% Social and Human Service Assistants 150 Earth Drillers, Except Oil and Gas 3.2% Bus Drivers, School 140 Helpers--Brickmasons, Blockmasons, Stonemasons, and Tile and Marble Setters3.1% Accountants and Auditors 130 Respiratory Therapists 3.1% Computer Systems Analysts 110

•Occupational wageshttp://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/oeswage.html

Occupational projectionshttp://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html

Current employment by industry: all areashttp://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/projections_generator.html

Unemployment rates & labor forcehttp://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/laus.html

Population and income – historical data for region & countieshttp://64.106.160.140:8080/lmi/population.html

CareerZone – Career Exploration Resource/skill/training requirements for hundreds of occupationshttp://www.nycareerzone.org/

Links to Hudson Valley Labor Market Information

Links, continued

Business Directory: locate employers by occupation/location

http://www.labor.state.ny.us/working_ny/finding_a_job/diremp/search.asp

Downloadable Job Search Program – WDSuite

http://www.workforcenewyork.org/wdsuite/

Business Expansions & Contractions Report

http://www.workforcenewyork.org/hudsonvalleylmi/

Get detailed information on skill and training requirements for hundreds of occupations at

www.nycareerzone.org