scottish urban air quality steering group - modelling & monitoring workshop - stephen thomson
TRANSCRIPT
Knots and problems
Summary of current position: Data & Monitoring
Opportunities and challenges
Stakeholder survey findings
Introduction to workshop
Stakeholders
SUAQ: To provide direction for work on Urban Air Quality in Scotland & to drive specific areas of work, associated with LES
TS
SG
HPS
SEPA
GCC
Knots and problems
We need to create free, robust, integrated and supported AQ decision making tools
across scales and sectors
“What’s wrong with the tools that we’ve got”
“We don’t have the time or resource”
“How can we work together”
“Not a simple problem, but its not a unique problem”
Key Stages • Define the task.
• Match task parts with distinctive
capabilities of different contributing organisations.
• Divide and distribute the work.
• Measure progress.
“A careful, focused definition of a problem can open the way to novel solutions”.
“We don’t have a single national model that applies to every scale”
“Appraisal must be proportionate and pragmatic (not unique to AQ)”
“Tool(kit)s is a more reasonable phrase, rather than referring to a national model”
“Identifying the right levers will drive your data collection”
Roadside AQ monitoring
No No2 SO2 O3 CO
au
n_no
, aqm
esh7
_no,
aqm
esh1
4_no
0
50
100
Sep 08 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 13
aun_no aqmesh7_no aqmesh14_no
AQ appraisal needs…
‘It is essential that there are detailed and
high quality (1) traffic data available across Scotland, especially in densely populated
city centres and surrounding areas.’ LES draft (Nov 14)
(2) Sum of emissions from vehicles
(3) dispersion model
Local models
• Perth City Centre
• Dundee
• Aberdeen
Models are built from various data sources, with analysis from microsimulation
Microsimulation: Scheme based analysis
• Model individual vehicles for schemes • Real time information • Complex metrics • Realistic analysis • Post processing using AIRE tool
Origin destination modelling
• What are we trying to model and why?
• Models have specific purpose (ladle vs spoon)
• Grain and scale of model is key
• Models are intrinsically complicated…how to share skills and model assumptions
‘Essential that LES is supported by modelling, data requirements and decision making, that is undertaken in a consistent manner to the same standards’
Opportunities & Challenges
Opportunities & Challenges
‘…AQAM seeks a standardised approach to modelling air quality at the regional and local scales.’
‘…help LA’s to explore possible LEZ scenarios and other effective measures.’
‘Modelling the potential effectiveness of the LES measures is a necessary part of the process.’
Opportunities & Challenges
Good understanding of, and ability to source, traffic data, is essential but perhaps still missing
BEST PRACTICE: How to analyse and present model / data outputs
GUIDANCE: Outlining
essential modelling and data requirements
TOOLS: Web-based
interactive data products
GUIDANCE: How to deal
with modelling uncertainty
Opportunities & Challenges
Thoughts: AQMM approach...
MODEL Modelling Assessment LEZ Framework
PURPOSE National, Scotland-wide, linked to planning decisions, cross-boundary
Local, area specific, link to AQMA assessment, linked to LEZ scoping
PROCESS AQMA modelling, LATIS, STAG, DPMTAG
Spotfire and MATlab tools, AIRE
DATA AURN data, NTDS Limited proxy data available
RESOURCE Scottish Government, Transport Scotland, SEPA
Transport Scotland, SEPA, Local Authorities, consultants, urban big data
Stakeholder survey Question Answer
Organisations to include?
Planning, development control, local businesses, operators
Training needs? Dispersion modelling, sensitivity analysis
Main Challenges? Traffic counts, funding, complexity of modelling, stakeholder acceptance
Other bodies to help?
Collate and provide transport data, training
Future key actions Training, robust peer review of process
Governance? Regular meetings, clear structure, open up models to scrutiny and peer review, right players, ability to procure specialist skills
Observations? Very little time to acquire and share knowledge (to become aware of AQMM), expert/specialist are key.