scotiabank energy infrastructure conference...2020/11/18 · scotiabank energy infrastructure...
TRANSCRIPT
Scotiabank Energy Infrastructure Conference
November 18th & 19th, 2020
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Forward-Looking Information This document contains “forward-looking information” and statements which reflect the current view with respect to the Company’s expectations regarding future growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and may not be appropriate for other purposes within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws. All such information and statements are made pursuant to safe harbour provisions contained in applicable securities legislation. The words “anticipates”, “believes”, “budget”, “could”, “estimates”, “expects”, “forecast”, “intends”, “may”, “might”, “plans”, “projects”, “schedule”, “should”, “targets”, “will”, “would” and similar expressions are often intended to identify forward-looking information, although not all forward-looking information contains these identifying words. The forward-looking information reflects management’s current beliefs and is based on information currently available to Emera’s management and should not be read as guarantees of future events, performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of whether, or the time at which, such events, performance or results will be achieved.
The forward-looking information is based on reasonable assumptions and is subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or results anticipated by the forward-looking information. Factors that could cause results or events to differ from current expectations are discussed in the “Business Overview and Outlook” section of the Management’s Discussions and Analysis (“MD&A”) and may also include: regulatory risk; operating and maintenance risks; changes in economic conditions; commodity price and availability risk; liquidity and capital market risk; future dividend growth; timing and costs associated with certain capital investment; the expected impacts on Emera of challenges in the global economy; estimated energy consumption rates; maintenance of adequate insurance coverage; changes in customer energy usage patterns; developments in technology that could reduce demand for electricity; global climate change; weather; unanticipated maintenance and other expenditures; system operating and maintenance risk; derivative financial instruments and hedging; interest rate risk; counterparty risk; disruption of fuel supply; country risks; environmental risks; foreign exchange; regulatory and government decisions, including changes to environmental, financial reporting and tax legislation; risks associated with pension plan performance and funding requirements; loss of service area; risk of failure of information technology infrastructure and cybersecurity risks; uncertainties associated with infectious diseases, pandemics and similar public health threats, such as the COVID-19 novel coronavirus (“COVID-19”) pandemic; market energy sales prices; labour relations; and availability of labour and management resources.
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking information as actual results could differ materially from the plans, expectations, estimates or intentions and statements expressed in the forward-looking information. All forward-looking information in this MD&A is qualified in its entirety by the above cautionary statements and, except as required by law, Emera undertakes no obligation to revise or update any forward-looking information as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Nothing in this document should be construed as an offer or sale of securities of Emera or any other person.
Non-GAAP MeasuresEmera uses financial measures that do not have standardized meaning under USGAAP and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. Emera calculates the non-GAAP measures by adjusting certain GAAP measures for specific items the Company believes are significant, but not reflective of underlying operations in the period. Refer to the Non-GAAP Financial Measures section of our MD&A for further discussion of these items.
Forward Looking Information and Non-GAAP Measures
$32BAssets
$6.1BRevenues
65%
US earnings
7.4K
Employees
Emera at a Glance
Predominately regulated portfolio of electric and natural gas utilities, natural gas pipelines and energy
marketing and trading serving 2.5 million customers across North
America and the Caribbean
▪ EMERA
NEWFOUNDLAND
& LABRADOR
▪ EMERA INC
▪ NOVA SCOTIA POWER
▪ EMERA ENERGY
▪ EMERA NEW
BRUNSWICK
▪ TAMPA ELECTRIC
▪ PEOPLES GAS
▪ NEW MEXICO GAS
▪ GRAND BAHAMA POWER
▪ BARBADOS LIGHT & POWER
▪ DOMINICA ELECTRICITY SERVICES
3 As at December 31, 2019
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$7.4B to
$8.6BCapital program from
2021 to 2023
7.5% to
8.5%Rate base growth from 2021 to 2023
4% to 5% Dividend growth
guidance through to 2022
Investor Highlights
65%+adjusted earnings from the US
95%of earnings from regulated utilities
~11%ten-year TSR1, outperforming the TSX Composite and Capped Utilities Index
1Total shareholder return as at September 30, 2020
$0.84 $0.89 $1.16 $1.31 $1.36 $1.41 $1.48 $1.66 $2.00 $2.13 $2.28 $2.38
00 05 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20F 21F 22F
Note: Denotes annual cash dividends paid
4-5%target through to 2022
6% CAGR since 2000
Delivering a Growing and Sustainable Dividend
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EmeraStrategy
CUSTOMER FOCUS Cleaner, affordable, reliable energy delivered safely
ASSET FOCUS Regulated electricity & gas assets
GEOGRAPHIC FOCUS North American markets with opportunities for growth
FINANCIAL FOCUS
Dividend Growth 4-5% growth target through to 2022
Rate Base Growth7.5% to 8.5% compound annual growth to 2023
Disciplined Capital Allocationbalance the ongoing growth and diversity of the portfolio to achieve our financial targets
Balance Sheetachieve target capital structure, supporting our investment grade ratings
STRATEGIC INITIATIVES
Carbon Reduction investing in renewable and cleaner generation to reduce the carbon intensity of our operations
Operational Excellence & AffordabilityInvesting in, and optimizing our systems for reliability with a focus on cost control, “Fuels to Assets” and “O&M to Assets” initiatives
Customer Experience and InnovationDelivering on our promise to customers with the best experience and solutions for today and the future
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Emera’s
StrategyCapital
InvestmentsRate Base
GrowthDividend Growth
Shareholder Returns
Emera’s Strategy Drives Shareholder Value
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• Emera’s strategy is rooted in its ESG commitments and has been focused on decarbonizing our generation fleet for 15+ years
• ~80% planned reduction in coal generation1
• Reduced GHG emissions by 35%1
• $7.4B to $8.6B capital program (2021 to 2023)
• ~60% of Emera’s capital program invested in decarbonization and reliability projects
• 7.5% to 8.5% rate base growth (2021 to 2023)
• EPS and cash flow growth should track rate base growth over time
• Dividend growth guidance of 4% to 5% through to 2022
• 6% dividend CAGR since 2000
• Current dividend yield of 4.6%2
• Track record of superior long term returns for shareholders as compared to major indices2
• 10-year total shareholder return of 11%2
1 As compared to 2005; and 2 As of September 30, 2020
Emera’s ESG commitments are core to our strategy and our culture. Our decarbonization initiatives are central to our strategy and are driving our growth and in turn, value creation for shareholders.
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Transitioning to Cleaner Energy
1 2005 baseline adjusted to include emissions from TECO Energy2 GWh total generation
35%reduction in GHG emissions
Emera wide since 20051
30%energy delivered to Nova Scotia Power
customers is from renewables (>triple 2005 levels)
60%of our 2021-2023 capital spend is focused
on cleaner and more reliable energy initiatives
22%of Tampa Electric’s generation capacity, or ~1,250 MW, will be from the sun in 2023
(<1% at the time of the Emera acquisition)
1,107 MWinstalled renewable capacity
(33% increase from 2018)
80%Reduction in coal usage by the end of
2023 as compared to 20052
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Emera’s Decarbonization Strategy in Action
Tampa Electric and Nova Scotia Power GHG Emissions (in Mt)
24.1
15.111.6
2005A 2019A 2023F
Emera’s strategy, which is focused on decarbonizing our generation fleet through investments in renewables and natural gas, has made significant advancements in reducing its GHG emissions
Emera recently published its Sustainability Report which highlights our progress on Environmental, Social and
Governance initiatives
48%
19%10%
3%
12% 27%
2005A 2019A 2023F
Coal Renewables
101 Represents the total GWh for Tampa Electric and Nova Scotia Power
Emera’s Decarbonization Strategy in Action
The integration of renewables and natural gas has significantly transformed Emera’s generation fleet and our committed capital projects will further advance our decarbonization strategy
Nova Scotia Power and Tampa Electric1
Coal and Renewables as a % of total GWh Generation • ~80% reduction in coal generation by 2023
• Renewables to increase from 3% in 2005 to 27% in 2023
• Natural gas, a transition fuel, to increase from 23% in 2005 to 59% in 2023
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$2.3$2.7
$2.4
$0.2
$0.4$0.6
2021F 2022F 2023F
Forecasted Capital Spend1
Baseline Forecast Opportunities Under Development
1 In billions of Canadian dollars. US dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.33 in 2021-2023. Capital spend forecast by affiliate can be found in the appendix.
Plan to Invest Between $7.4B to $8.6B in Rate Base
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$19.0$20.8
$22.6$24.5
$26.2
2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F
Forecasted Rate Base1
Baseline Rate Base Opportunities Under Development
1 2019 actuals exclude Emera Maine. Average total rate base in billions of Canadian dollars. U.S. dollar denominated rate base is translated at a forecasted exchange rate of 1.33 in 2020-2023. Details by affiliate can be found in the appendix.
Capital Program Drives Future Rate Base Growth
Florida Investment Highlights
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Solar• Investing US $850M to
install 600MW of solar by 2021 (~550MW in-service today)
• Further 600MW (related US $600M included in the 2021-2023 capital forecast)
Big Bend Modernization • Investing US $850M to
repower Unit 1 with natural gas combined cycle technology and retire Unit 2
• Construction began in August 2019 and will be completed in 2023
• Project is on schedule and on budget
Storm Protection• Legislation passed
promoting utility storm-hardening investments
• Tampa Electric filed its storm protection plan with the FPSC in 2020
• 2021-2023 capital forecast includes US ~$400M of related investments
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Further Decarbonization
Balancing Customer Affordability
Increased Electrification
▪ Emera’s strategy will continue to be relevant for the foreseeable future
▪ Regulations and customer demand for cleaner energy will continue to create opportunities
▪ The coal remaining at Tampa Electric and Nova Scotia Power will be targeted for further decarbonization opportunities
▪ Emera is committed to balancing the pace of decarbonization with customer affordability
▪ Electrification is expected to increase over the long-term across all customer classes
Beyond 2023
Superior ShareholderReturns
~11%total shareholder return over the last ten years1
Consistently outperform the PHLX UtilityIndex and the TSX Capped Utilities Index
Representation in the TSX Composite, TSX Capped Utilities, TSX60 and select MSCI and FTSE World Indices
Regulated, Florida-Focused Portfolio
95%of earnings derived from regulated investments
55%of rate base located in Florida
~65%of earnings from US operations
Visible
Growth Plan
$7.4B to $8.6Bcapital investment plan to drive rate base growth through 2023
7.5% to 8.5% rate base growth through 2023, driven by Florida investments
70%of capital program to be invested in Florida
Growing & Sustainable Dividend
4-5%dividend growth target through to 2022
6%growth in dividend per share over the last 20 years
4.5%dividend yield1
Why Invest in Emera
151 As of September 30, 2020
Appendix
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Proven Decarbonization Strategy – Tampa Electric
43%
6% 2%
37%
84% 86%
4%12%
2005A 2019A 2023F
Coal Natural Gas Renewables
Reducing coal generation by investing in solar and natural gas1,2 Major Decarbonization Projects3
1,250 MW of solar by 2023, currently 600 MW in-service (~$1.6 billion)
Big Bend Modernization Project, 1,090 MW (repowering unit 1 with natural gas and retiring unit 2), ~$850 million investment
30MW battery storage by 2023 to work with solar investments
Converted four simple-cycle combustion turbine units into a combined cycle unit at Polk plant
1 GWh total generation; 2 Based on forecasted fuel prices; and 3 In USD
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Proven Decarbonization Strategy – Nova Scotia Power
55%43%
23%
2%
12%
7%
9% 30%
59%
2005A 2019A 2023F
Coal Natural Gas Renewables
Reducing coal generation by investing in hydro, wind and transmission projects1,2 Major Decarbonization Projects3
Added ~500 MW of wind (~150 MW rate base and ~350 MW through IPPs)
Completed Maritime Link ($1.7 billion) project which is capable of transmitting500 MW of hydro energy in 2021
Investing $850 million (minority position) in the 900 MW Labrador Island Link
Refurbishment of Nova Scotia Power hydro facilities (~400 MW) will secure existing hydro capacity ($500 to $600 million)
1 GWh total generation; 2 Based on forecasted fuel prices; and 3 In CAD
10.1%
9.6%
11.1%
11.5%
12.0%
10.3%
6.6%
8.1%
8.2%
11.1%
10.2%
7.8%
3 year
5 year
10 year
20 year
Emera TSX Utilities Index PHLX Utility Index
Note: Total shareholder return as at September 30, 202019
Superior Long-Term Shareholder Returns
Tampa Electric
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Utility Type Vertically integrated electric utility
Regulator Florida Public Service Commission
Regulatory Construct9.25-11.25% Allowed ROE | 10.5% Earned ROE | 54% Allowed Equity | $7.1 billion Rate Base
Regulatory Arrangements Settlement agreement through 2021
Capex $4.0 billion (2021-2023)
Generation84% Natural Gas | 6% Coal & Petcoke | 4% Renewable | 6% Purchases
T&D 2,150 km of transmission | 18,750 km of distribution
Customers 765,000
Note: All data as at December 31, 2019, and in US dollars
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Gas LDCs
New Mexico Gas Company
Type of Utility Natural gas transmission and distribution system
Regulator New Mexico Public Regulation Commission
Regulatory Construct9.1% Allowed ROE | 52% Allowed Equity | $0.6 billion Rate Base
Regulatory Arrangements
Filed a general rate case for new rates in 2021
Capex $0.4 billion (2021-2023)
T&D 2,600 km of transmission | 17,000 km of distribution
Customers 534,000
Peoples Gas System
Type of Utility Natural gas distribution system
Regulator Florida Public Service Commission
Regulatory Construct9.25-11.75% Allowed ROE | 10% Earned ROE | 54.7% Allowed Equity | $1.1 billion Rate Base
Regulatory Arrangements Filed a general rate case for new rates in 2021
Capex $1.1 billion (2021-2023)
Gas Lines20,900 km of main lines | 11,900 km of service lines
Customers 406,000
Note: All data as at December 31, 2019, and in US dollars
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Utility Type Vertically integrated electric utility
Regulator Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board
Regulatory Construct8.75-9.25% Allowed ROE | 9.25% Earned ROE | 40% Allowed Equity | $4.1 billion Rate Base
Regulatory ArrangementsRate stabilization agreement through 2019 and 2020-2022 fuel stability plan in place
Capex $1.1 billion (2021-2023)
Generation12% Natural Gas | 53% Coal & Petcoke | 28% Renewable | 7% Purchases
T&D 5,000 km of transmission | 27,000 km of distribution
Customers 523,000
Nova Scotia Power
Note: All data as at December 31, 2019, and in Canadian dollars
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Utility CompaniesBarbados Light & Power Company Ltd. Grand Bahama Power Company Ltd. Dominica Electricity Services Ltd.
Utility Types Vertically integrated electric utilities
RegulatorsBLPC: Fair Trade Commission, Barbados GBPC: The Grand Bahama Port Authority Domlec: Independent Regulatory Commission, Dominica
Regulatory Construct2 10.1% Allowed Return on Rate Base (RORB) | $1.0 billion Rate Base
Regulatory Arrangements GBPC rate stability agreement through 2021
Capex $0.3 billion (2021-2023)
Generation 95% Oil-fired | 5% Renewables
T&D 2,150 km of transmission | 18,750 km of distribution
Customers 180,000
Emera Caribbean
1 Note: All data as at December 31, 20192 Represents weighted average return on rate base
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Maritime Link
Type of Utility Transmission
Regulator Nova Scotia Utility and Review Board
Regulatory Construct8.75-9.25% Allowed ROE | 30% Allowed Equity | $1.8 billion Rate Base
Regulatory Arrangements
In 2019 UARB approved NSPML’s interim assessment for recovery from NSPI of 2020 Maritime Link costs of ~$145 million. The total recovery of $145 million includes approximately $115 million of O&M, debt financing and equity financing costs, and approximately $30 million for depreciation and amortization of financing costs.
Labrador Island Link
Type of Utility Transmission
Regulatory Construct 8.50% Allowed ROE | $550 million equity investment
Further Equity Investment $0.2 billion in 2022
Emera Newfoundland and Labrador
Note: All data as at December 31, 2019, and in Canadian dollars
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Other Investments
PipelinesEmera New Brunswick | Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline
Emera New Brunswick • Regulated by the National Energy Board• 145 km long natural gas pipeline• Firm service agreement with Repsol Energy expiring in
2034
Maritimes and Northeast Pipeline• Regulated by the National Energy Board• 1,100 km long natural gas transmission line• 12.9% equity investment
Emera Energy Emera Energy Services | Bear Swamp
Emera Energy Services • $15-30 million USD annual earnings ($45-70 million
USD of margin)• Earnings dependent on market conditions• Minimal commodity exposure
Bear Swamp • 50% joint venture • 600 MW hydro pumped storage capacity• Attracts ISO – NE capacity revenue
Note: All data as at December 31, 2019
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Capital Forecast by Affiliate
1 US dollar denominated capex is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.33 in 2021 - 2023
Capital Forecast (CAD millions) 2021F 2022F 2023F Total
Tampa Electric $ 1,300 1,370 1,360 4,030
Peoples Gas 400 390 350 1,140
Seacoast 30 60 40 130
New Mexico Gas 140 140 140 420
Nova Scotia Power 410 360 360 1,130
Emera Caribbean 60 110 100 270
Emera Newfoundland - 240 - 240
Other 10 20 10 40
Subtotal - Baseline Forecast $ 2,350 2,690 2,360 7,400
Add: Opportunities Under Development 170 440 590 1,200
Capital Forecast (CAD millions) $ 2,520 3,130 2,950 8,600
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Rate Base Forecast by Affiliate
Rate Base (CAD millions)1 2019A 2020F 2021F 2022F 2023F2019-2023
CAGR
Tampa Electric2 $ 9,225 10,335 11,200 12,025 12,815 8.6%
Peoples Gas2 1,450 1,810 2,225 2,535 2,810 18.0%
Seacoast3 85 185 205 245 270 33.5%
New Mexico Gas Company 775 845 990 1,005 1,050 7.9%
Nova Scotia Power 4,100 4,275 4,495 4,655 4,820 4.1%
Emera Caribbean 950 915 970 985 990 1.0%
Maritime Link 1,825 1,820 1,800 1,750 1,695 -1.8%
Labrador Island Link4 550 600 650 875 875 12.3%
Subtotal - Baseline Forecast $ 18,960 20,785 22,535 24,075 25,325 7.5%
Add: Opportunities Under Development - - 90 390 910
Total $ 18,960 20,785 22,625 24,465 26,235 8.5%
1 `Average rate base; US dollar denominated rate base is translated at a forecasted average USD/CAD exchange rate of 1.33 in 2020-20232 `Capital structures that support the rate base include deferred tax liabilities (DTL), a zero cost-of-capital component of the capital structure in Florida; 2019 capital
structures included DTLs of $1,200 million at Tampa Electric and $200 million at Peoples Gas3 `Reflects the capital asset values of the regulated pipeline investments 4 `Reflects Emera’s equity investment in the project