scir issue iii
DESCRIPTION
This is the digital version of the Spring 2012 issue of the Southern California International Review, USC's undergraduate Journal of International Studies.TRANSCRIPT
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.e Southern California International Review (SCIR
SCIR
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Southern California International Review
Southern California InternationalReview
S!"#$%&' C()*+!&'*( I'#%&'(#*!'() R%,*%-
Sta!Editor-in-Chief
Assistant Editors-in-Chief:
Editors:
Cover Design and Layout:
Contents
Assessing the In!uence of "ird-Party Mediators on Negotiation Outcomes
Explanations for the Lack of Political Participation and the Rami#cations for Democracy in Russia
Dual Citizenship, Expatriate Voting, and the Appeal of Migrant Political Candidates
An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
A letter from the editor:
Sincerely,
Editor-in-Chief
Shalom Y’all Assessing the In!uence of "ird-Party Mediators on Negotiation
Outcomes (abridged)1
Peacemaking e$orts in intractable con!icts rarely set high expectations for success. "e con!ict’s prolonged, historical nature paired with its deep psychological wounds make it nearly impossible for leaders to adopt political solutions. Given these di%cult realities, the third-party mediators who lead peacemaking e$orts are rarely held responsible for the outcome of negotiations—the di%cult circumstances are deemed to be outside of a mediator’s control. Intrigued by the lack of consideration devoted to the third-party mediator, this study raises the question of whether a mediator could in fact have a signi#cant in!uence on the outcome of an international negotiation, and if so, what factors could make some mediators more successful than others in leading disputing parties to reach an agreement. Using comparative analysis, this study o$ers an answer by evaluating the di$erences between the Egyptian-Israeli nego-tiations in 1978-9 and the Syrian-Israeli negotiations in 2000. "ese two cases demonstrate signi#cant similarities, and yet one reached an agreement while the other ended in failure. While systemic, domestic, and individual analyses each attempt to explain the cases’ di$er-ing outcomes without considering the role of the mediator, these explanations are not entirely convincing. By examining the in!uence of third-party mediators, three relevant conclusions emerge:
1. A mediator who pursues a directive strategy, and has the power to enact it, is more likely to reach an agreement than one who resorts to merely facilitative tactics.
2. A mediator who prioritizes the peace process over other national security concerns is more likely to reach an agreement than one who does not deem the agreement to be essential to the national interest.
3. A mediator who utilizes team members with signi#cant decision-making authority will be more likely to reach an agreement than one who does not.
"ese three conclusions suggest that a third-party mediator can have a signi#cant in!uence on the outcomes of a negotiation—one that can rival, and at times supersede, systemic, domes-tic, or individual conditions.
is a senior at the University of Southern California double-ma-joring in International Relations and Spanish.
Landry Doyle
Peace has one thing in common with its enemy,with the #end it battles, with war—
Peace is active, not passive;Peace is doing, not waiting;
Peace is aggressive—attacking;Peace plans its strategy and encircles the enemy;Peace marshals its forces and storms the gates;
Peace gathers its weapons and pierces the defense;Peace, like war, is waged.
I. Introduction
2
New York Times
11
Shalom Y’all
II. Research Methods and Selection of Cases
Case One: Camp David Negotiations 1978-1979
4
Camp David: Peacemaking and Politics
12 Landry Doyle
Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Con!ict since 1967White House Diary
Shalom Y’all
8
Case Two: Shepherdstown and Geneva Negotiations 1999-2000
Camp
14 Landry Doyle
11
Shalom Y’all
12
14
New York TimesInnocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East
Landry Doyle
18
III. "e Individual Mediator
Peace ProcessMy Life
Journal of Peace Research
Shalom Y’all
21
22
Political Studies
18 Landry Doyle
IV. Variable One: Mediation Strategy
1. Carter succeeds as a directive facilitator intending to shape the negotiation process and outcome1.1 Carter’s problem-solving style preferred detail-oriented, comprehensive prepara-tion
24
PowerCamp Peace ProcessPowerCamp
Shalom Y’all
1.2 Carter proactively initiates a risky summit negotiation
28
White KeepingWhiteKeeping
Camp
Landry Doyle
1.3 Carter places no time constraints on negotiation and devotes his full attention
1.4 Carter develops a profound understanding of both negotiating parties
Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Re-sponses to International Con!ict
21
Shalom Y’all
1.5 Carter sees himself as an active negotiator
Keeping
PowerWhite
Camp
22 Landry Doyle
1.6 Carter advances a bold American position
41
42
44
1.7 Carter sees the agreement through to its completion
White
KeepingKeeping Camp
Camp Hard Choices: Critical Years in America’s Foreign Policy
Shalom Y’all
48
1. Clinton slides into a more communicative role and refuses bold, shaping action1.1 Clinton’s problem-solving style is centered on his superb political abilities
White
Camp
24 Landry Doyle
Peace Process
Shalom Y’all
1.2 Clinton articulates a passive approach to the peace process throughout his term
1.3 Clinton does not prepare adequately for Shepherdstown and does not give the summit his full attention
Peace Process
Danger and Opportunity: An American Ambassador’s Journey "rough the Middle East
Landry Doyle
1.4 Clinton assumes a role as a passive facilitator at Shepherdstown
Cambridge Review of International A$airs 12,
Shalom Y’all
1.5 Clinton allows Barak to assume a directive role
28 Landry Doyle
Shalom Y’all
1.6 Clinton never puts forth an independent American proposal
81
Landry Doyle
82
1.7 Clinton understands Syria’s bottom line, but never forces Barak to meet it
84
88
Shalom Y’all
1.8 Clinton never forced Israel to disclose its bottom line
"e New Yorker
Landry Doyle
1.9 Barak continues to direct the negotiations at Geneva, while Clinton merely facili-tates
Shalom Y’all
V. Variable Two: Prioritization of Mediation Outcomes Relative to the Na-tional Interest
2. Carter saw the outcomes of mediation as a critical part of the national interest2.1 Articulates the strategic importance of Middle East peace
Landry Doyle
Keeping
Presidential Studies QuarterlyMorality Reason, and Power: American Diplomacy in the Carter Years
Power
Shalom Y’all
Keeping
Landry Doyle
2.2 Ignores domestic pressures and sacri#ces political interests to achieve peace
111
KeepingCamp
Peace Process
Shalom Y’all
112
114
2.3 Describes Middle East peace as the de#ning issue of his presidency and continues involvement a&er leaving o%ce
KeepingCamp
WhitePalestine: Peace Not Apartheid We Can Have Peace in the Holy Land: a plan that will work
Keeping
Landry Doyle
2. Clinton expresses strategic interest in the Middle East, but the importance of Syri-an-Israeli peace is unclear in the Administration’s long list of ambiguous priorities2.1 "e Administration articulates an ad hoc approach to national security goals
118
A National Security Strategy of Engagement and EnlargementInternational Security
Foreign A$airs
Shalom Y’all
2.2 Understands value of Middle East stability, but Syrian and Palestinian negotia-tions vie for Administration’s attention
121
122
124
Landry Doyle
2.3 Clinton demonstrates a concern for domestic political considerations and is un-sure of the relation to national security concerns
Peace Process
41
Shalom Y’all
128
42 Landry Doyle
VI. Variable "ree: Use of Negotiating Team
3. Carter’s team works cohesively allowing Secretary Vance to exert authority as Carter’s second in command
Shalom Y’all
Keeping
44 Landry Doyle
3. Clinton’s team is not utilized to its fullest capacity, allowing a non-authoritative #gure to lead the process
141
Camp
Shalom Y’all
142
VII. Conclusions
Landry Doyle
Shalom Y’all
BibliographyNew York Review
of BooksMadam Secretary
Journal of Palestine Studies
Journal of Peace Research
Peacemaking in International Con!ict: Methods and Techniques
Negotiation Journal
Journal of Peace ResearchMediation in International Relations: Multiple Ap-
proaches to Con!ict Management"e Clinton Tapes: Wrestling History with the President
Foreign Policy
Power and Principle: Memoirs of the National Security Adviser 1977-1981
Keeping the Faith: Memoirs of a President
White House DiaryMy Life
Herding Cats Multiparty Mediation in a Complex World
Taming Intractable Con!icts: Mediation in the Hardest Cases
48 Landry Doyle
Negotiation JournalDanger and Opportunity: An American Ambassa-
dor’s Journey "rough the Middle East. In Search of Identity: An Autobiography
Foreign A$airsForeign A$airs
.” Journal of Palestine Studies
Innocent Abroad: An Intimate Account of American Peace Diplomacy in the Middle East
"e Washington Quarterly
Middle East Policy
Cambridge Review of International A$airs
New York TimesCon!ict Regulation in Divided Societies
International Stud-ies Perspectives
Interna-tional Security
Security StudiesCamp David: Peacemaking and Politics
Peace Process: American Diplomacy and the Arab-Israeli Con!ict since 1967
Shalom Y’all
Middle East Memo: "e Saban Center for Middle East Peace
International Studies Quarterly
Presidential Studies Quarterly
"e Missing Peace: "e Inside Story of the Fight for Middle East Peace
Journal of Pales-tine Studies
Political Studies
Political Science QuarterlyMorality Reason, and Power: American Diplomacy in the Carter Years
"e Other Arab-Israeli Con!ict: Making America’s Middle East Policy from Truman to Reagan
Negotiation JournalMiddle East Insight
Managing Global Chaos: Sources of and Responses to International Con!ict
"e Go-Between: Jan Eliasson and the Styles of Media-tion
Landry Doyle
"e Truth About Camp David: "e Untold Story About the Collapse of the Middle East Peace Process
"e Middle East JournalPower and Leadership in International Bargaining: "e Path to the Camp David Ac-
cords.International Mediation in "eory and Practice
Hard Choices: Critical Years in America’s Foreign Policy
Re-thinking Foregin Policy Analysis: States, Leaders, and the Microfoundations of Behavioral International Relations
"e New YorkerA National Security Strategy of Engagement and Enlargement
International Organizations
Shalom Y’all
The Sounds of Silence Individual level explanations for the lack of political participation and
the rami#cations for a democratic future in Russia
"is article seeks to explain the comparative lack of political participation in Russia through the individual, as opposed to the aggregate, lens. Although this analysis takes into account the in!uence of more general factors like history and economics, the pri-mary variables constitute Personal Engagement—an individual’s awareness and knowl-edge of political and social issues of the day—and Personal Engagement—an individual’s con#dence in government institutions and the sense that he or she has a “say” in policy decisions and government machinations. By analyzing political participation at the indi-vidual level, this article attempts to shed light on the democratic potential of the Russian populace and on democratization in Russia in general.
1
is a senior at the University of Southern California majoring in International Relations and minoring in French, Russian, and Painting.
Lara Nichols
CONTRIBUTING FACTORS
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
2
3
4
5
2
4
Lara Nichols
6
7
(Fig. 1) Percent of respondents who approved of the economy and the current presi-dent from years 1991-20098
8
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
9
Lara Nichols
(Fig. 2) Percent of respondents who approved of the economy and the current presi-dent from January 2010-December 201110
PARTICIPATION RESULTSVoting
11
11
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
12
13
Nonvoting Participation
14
14
Lara Nichols
15
16
17
18
19
18
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
20
POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT
Awareness
21
TV
21
Lara Nichols
22
Media Legitimacy
23
22
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
24
25
26
24
Lara Nichols
27
Potential for Participation
28
Conclusions on Engagement
28
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
EFFICACY
Sense of E%cacy
29
Sense of Agency
Europe-Asia Studies
Lara Nichols
30
Generalized Trust and its Implications
31
"e Moral Foundations of Trust
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
32
33
34
35
Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy
Lara Nichols
Institutional Trust
36
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
Con#dence in Institutions
37
38
Lara Nichols
39
Conclusions on E%cacy
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
CONCLUSION
40
Lara Nichols
41
42
41 42
"e Lack of Political Participation in Russia and Russia’s Democratic Future
Bibliography
Russian Election Study 2003-2004
Russia: the Challenges of Transformation
Europe-Asia Studies
Problems of Democratic Transition and Consolidation: Southern Europe, South America and Post-Communist Europe
Voter Turnout since 1945: a Global Report
Russia: the Challenges of Transformation
Making Democracy Work: Civic Traditions in Modern Italy
State Building in Putin’s Russia: Policing and Coercion a&er Communism.
Pedro Ramirez
"e Return: Russia’s Journey from Gorbachev to Medvedev
"e Moral Foundations of Trust
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
Dual Citizenship, Expatriate Voting, and the Appeal of Migrant Political Candidates
"is paper explores the phenomenon of expatriate voting and other forms of transnational political participation in the case of Mexicans living in the United States. In the mid-1990s, the Mexican government abandoned decades of exclusionary policies and began to incorporate migrants in the electoral process. Dual nationality was #nally allowed and migrants were able to cast their votes for the presidential elections of 2006 from abroad for the #rst time. Despite these positive changes, voter turnout in 2006 was a big disappointment and expatriate voting remained limited to a relatively small pool of potential voters. While the government has spent considerable resources to improve the expatriate voting process in time for this year’s presiden-tial elections, migrant activists like Andres Bermudez–the Tomato King–have demonstrated that the boundaries for migrant political participation can still be stretched further. Migrants cannot only vote during elections; they can now run for public o%ce, as well.
1
is a senior at the University of Southern California majoring in Interna-tional Relations-Global Business, and minoring in Cinema-Television and East Asian Languages and Cultures (Mandarin).
Pedro Ramirez
"e Struggle for Migrant Voting Rights: 1929-2006
Mexicans Outside Mexico2
4
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
8
11
12
14
Pedro Ramirez
citizenship à la carte
18
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
21
22
24
28
Pedro Ramirez
Expatriate Voting in the 2006 and 2012 Presidential Elections
candados
IFE cards
81
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
candados
41
42
candados
82 Pedro Ramirez
44
candados
Alternative Paths for Migrant Political Participation
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
48
Ley Migrante
Los Angeles Times
84 Pedro Ramirez
campesino
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
1
2
Conclusion
Pedro Ramirez
Bibliography
"e Politics, Economics, and Culture of Mexican-US Migration: Both Sides of the Border
"e Journal of American History
International Migration Review
Mexican Studies / Estudios Mexicanos
Los Angeles Times
Citizenship, Political Engagement, and Be-longing: Immigrants in Europe and the United States
Citizenship across Borders: the Political Transnational-ism of El Migrante
Opportunities for Migrant Participation in Mexican Politics
88 Nancy Talamantes
is a junior at the University of Southern California ma-joring in International Relations-Global Business.
Institute de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques
"e universal popularity of soccer stems from its inclusivity of di$erent ethnicities, races, and cultures. People without common languages, traditions or backgrounds can engage in a game of soccer simply because it is easy to understand and play. "e unifying aspect of soccer enables it to unite people under a common goal and objective. In essence, the inclusive quality of soccer allows for it to become a common language people universally speak and thus a source of communication among them. Soccer therefore has the power to communicate social, cultural, and political matters. "erefore, as an integral part of the cultures of many nations, soccer can potentially be considered an imminent source to promote peace and conduct cultural diplomacy between nations.
The World Cup and World OrderAn Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
Nancy Talamantes
1
2
4
International Spectator
"e Global Art of Soccer
An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
8
Political Psychology
Sports: A Tool for International Relations
Nancy Talamantes
11
12
.e
14
18
International Journal of the History of Sport
FIFA.com - Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA).
An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
21
22
Nancy Talamantes
24
28
An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
31 “FIFA.com - Fair Play Code.”
Nancy Talamantes
.e
An Analysis of Soccer as a Tool for Diplomacy
41
42
BibliographyInterna-
tional Spectator
Nancy Talamantes
Political Psychology Sports: A Tool for International Relations
FIFA.com - Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA)
"e Telegraph.
International Journal of the History of Sport
General Assembly of the United Nations
"e Global Art of Soccer