SCIENCE MEETS POLICY – AND POLITICS!

Miriam DiamondUniversity of Toronto

Duke University Feb 20, 2009

Societal Myths

Myth 1: Science & Technologywill keep us prosperous

Myth 2: Science Policy

Great Lakes

Societal Myths“… socially constructed comprehensive

visions that give shape and direction to life."

Colin Grant 1999 The Myths We Live By

“The assertion that ours is a myth-free culture may actually be one of our most important cultural myths!”

William Rees 2008 Science, cognition and public policy

Myth – Science & Technology Science Action Societal Good

Truth (scientific knowledge) & capability (technology, policy development & implementation) will allow us to solve our problems

Dolly the Cloned Sheep

Truth as a Myth

“Not truth, but error has always been the chief factor in the evolution of nations… The masses have never thirsted after truth. They turn aside from evidence that is not to their taste, preferring to deify error, if error seduce them. Their master; whoever attempts to destroy their illusions is always their victim.”

Gustave Le Bon 1896 The Crowd: A Study of The Popular Mind

Truth & Government?? Folly “wooden-headedness, the

source of self deception …. plays a remarkably large role in government. It consists in assessing a situation in terms of preconceived fixed notions [i.e., ideology] while ignoring any contrary signs. It is acting according to wish while not allowing oneself to be deflected by the facts.”

Barbara Tuchman 1984 March of Folly: From Troy to Viet Nam

The Trojan Horse

Folly Gone too Far - Collapse• Wealth & power• Wealth & power Population & societal

complexity• Population & complexity More food & trees • More food Land degradation• Land degradation Lower return on energy

investment• Lead poisoning

– Sterility among men, stillbirths, cretinism, lunacy

Homer-Dixon T. 2006. The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization. Vintage Press, Toronto.http://www.epa.gov/history/topics/perspect/lead.htmhttp://www.professorpage.info/Roman%20Empire_files/image039.jpg

Synchronous Failure<Energy Return/Energy Invested

Our myths

have led to folly.

Will our myths lead to

collapse?

Resources

Food per capita

Population

Pollution

Industrial outputPer capita

Meadows, D.,D. Meadows, J. Randers, W. Behrens. 1972. The limits to growth. New York: Universe Books.

The Limits to GrowthVoices against folly

Societal Myths

Myth 1: Science & Technologywill keep us prosperous

Myth 2: Science Policy

Great Lakes

Impact of Public Opinion on Environmental Policy

Impact of Public Opinion on Environmental Policy

Societal Myths

Myth 1: Science & Technologywill keep us prosperous

Myth 2: Science Policy

Great Lakes

Environmental Routes of Societal Failure - “Collapse”, Jared Diamond 2005

4 reasons for societal collapse: 1. Failure to anticipate a problem 2. Failure to perceive a problem

once it has arrived3. Failure to solve the

problem4. Failure of solutions

to the problem

Diamond, J. 2005 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Viking Books.

•Climate change•Resource

exhaustion•Deforestation•Loss of

agricultural production

•Water shortages

Science in Decision Making?

“… ignoring or misusing science in environmental policy is all but inevitable – short-term limbic and brain-stem defenses are not easily swayed by long- term logic, rational assessments, or moral and ethical arguments.”

Bill Rees 2008

The Making & Implementation of Policy

1. Government science & policy with academic science

2. Public pressure 3. Inside interest group

lobbying4. Competing issues

blog.ecr.co.za/cockontheblog/?p=357

2008 December Report of the Commissioner of the Environment and

Sustainable Development

“Four decades after national environmental laws and departments were created to clean up Canada's air and water and to safeguard biodiversity, wetlands, and habitats, Canadians still face mounting environmental problems. Despite progress in tackling such problems as lead pollution, acid rain, and ozone-depleting substances, too many smog alerts, respiratory illnesses, and days with high UV-radiation still occur. Few if any of the problems that led to the advent of the environmental protection agenda have been fully resolved.”

http://www.oag-bvg.gc.ca/internet/English/parl_cesd_200812_00_e_31817.html#hd3a

Government Science

• Economic starvation – Reorganization– Expanding role of “enablers” and bean

counters• Direct political interference in

bureaucracy• Funding

– Scientists seeking own funding convenient means of not mobilizing resources for planned priorities

www.dwmbeancounter.com/acctg.html

Academic Science

Time

Relevance to problem solving

FocusSpecificity

Reductionism

Convention withreigning paradigm

FUNDING!!

Societal Myths

Myth 1: Science & Technologywill keep us prosperous

Myth 2: Science Policy

Great Lakes

Environmental Routes of Societal Failure - “Collapse”, Diamond 2005

4 reasons for societal collapse: 1. Failure to anticipate a problem 2. Failure to perceive a problem

once it has arrived3. Failure to solve the

problem4. Failure of solutions

to the problem

Diamond, J. 2005 Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail or Succeed. New York: Viking Books.

• Climate change• Invasive species • Habitat destruction• Nutrient loads• Contaminant loads• Competing priorities• Lack of infrastructure renewal

Action on the Great Lakes

Time

Activity

Acid Rain

EutrophicationP control

Virtual eliminationof persistence organochlorines

Deficit reduction

Tax “relief”

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000

????

Academic Science

Time

Relevance to problem solving

FocusSpecificity

Reductionism Great LakesResearch

Convention withreigning paradigm

FUNDING!!

Societal Myths

Myth 1: Science & Technologywill keep us prosperous

Myth 2: Science Policy

Great Lakes

Turning Point ?

• Public thirst for vision, leadership

• Yet….. Past & current trend towards individualization of issues, not collective action

• Can we turn the boat around??