Goals: Policy & PoliticsSecond Half of Global

Warming Course

Dr. Chris Hamilton2-4 T,W,Th Henderson 222

670-1738 chris.hamilton@washburn.edu

UNDERSTAND:

The REAL Scientific Facts Science vs Science DenialPolitically-driven & Corporate-bought resistance to ScienceHow to Effectively respond to Science Denial propaganda Best scientific projections of the Dangers of climate change / warming Evidence of dire changes now Tipping Points

Scientific Future Scenarios for the Humans, and the Planet

BEST Policies

Policies & Agreements (of Governments, European Union, US, states & cities, industry, other nations

Policies of NGOs and Religions, Business

Develop personal, family, lifestyle changes

HOW SEVERE A THREAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE ?MYTHS* We can carry on as now. * We’ll adapt to climate change — civilization has survived droughts and temperature shifts before. * Inventions will save us.FACTS

We must REVERSE climate change. The best of Physical, and Social sciences shows these hard scientific realities:

The current warming of our climate will bring major hardships — untold human suffering, in the 21st century & beyond for our children and grandchildren, and species extinctions. Climate has changed in the past, humans survived, but… *the climate changes are VASTLY greater and * they are human induced

Today’s times are vastly different: huge population growth, fossil-fuel based economic growth, and Carbon and temperature increases are INTERCONNECTED, with hazards that can produce Major Extinction Events in future centuries, if trends are not stabilized in this century.

If current trends continue we face a warming trend unseen since human civilization began 10,000 years ago. (IPCC 2001) and unseen back 50 million years (IPCC 2007). Projected: + 2.0 - 4.0 degree C in this century.According to best science, effects of current trends will be dire by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, May 2007)

20-30 % plant & animal species will approach extinction

Coasts eroded, then flooded by 2070s, hundreds of millions inundated, esp. So. Asia, and the world’s big coastal cities

Up to 40% melt of ice/snow at high altitudes, flooding & then loss of water supply where 1 of 6 live in So. Asia, affecting 1 billion by 2050

Minus 10-30% precipitation in mid latitudes, eg Mediterranean, Africa, S. Eur

Increased droughts, heat waves, floods, storms, scarcity of water and food, spread of infections diseases Will increase: Vast Human, and species death; Economic depression & collapse; Government breakdowns; civil wars & major conflicts throughout the globe.

2050

SCIENTIFICALLY, WHY THIS IS A TURNING POINT How Scientists Know: http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagid=54125

WHAT they know: http://www.edf.org/article.cfm?contentID=11016

SEEING is Believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djLZhO60LS0&feature=related

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/past-present-and-future.html#3 Data Trends http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/greenhouse-gas.html multiple Greenhouse Gas Trendshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F9FbdqGRsg&feature=related Video of Greenland meltinghttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpqnElX2RWU&feature=fvwrel CBS TV reporthttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hgvNO_WT9o&feature=watch_response_rev Video of Ice Loss Over Time

How it is Human Caused: \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Human.Induced.Timeline.docx Basic Scientific Proof of Cause & Effect: 1. Correlation 2. Time – Order is Correct, Causes Come Before Effect

Tipping Points Research: Allianz Ins. & WWF http://knowledge.allianz.com/search.cfm?519/climate-tipping-points-study

\\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.12Tipping. Points.docx http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42269650/ns/us_news-environment/

Average temperatures in a region (isotherms) are moving north or south 35 miles per decade http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2007/0902-our_changing_climate.htm

If carbon CO2 emissions increase at current rates, isotherm movement to the Poles will double this century to at least 70 miles per decade This will vastly outrace the ability of animals and plants to migrate and adapt. If this continues, as many as 50% or more of species on Earth could become extinct. Similar to geologic extinction events in past eons. This is in addition to Human world changes.Jim Hansen, Director, NASA/Goddard Earth Institute http://www.answers.com/topic/james-hansen

Under a Green Sky Peter Ward, other paleontologists

• But Worse than all This… • Is The Green Sky… Extinction Events…when almost all life dies in Geologic History , Gives Guide to Current GHGas Threat http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071024083644.htm http://www.amazon.com/Under-Green-Sky-Warming-Extinctions/dp/006113791X

• Four Geologic Eras when GHGases & Warming Increased from Volcanic Interruptions, nearly all oxygen-based life died out

•GIGANTIC volcanic eruptions between Tectonic plates threw out massive gases, heat, magma on ocean floors•During the Permian extinction, almost 90% of species died•Same at the end of the Triassic the first part of the "age of the dinosaurs. At the end of the Triasic all dinos died, eg “comet impact” theory•But the crater in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be the wrong age by several million years

How Almost All Life Died:•carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels were indirectly measured via isotope ratios in rocks all over the world•The Extinctions started on the ocean floor going up, replacing oxygen-breathers with anoxic bacteria•This bacteria, plus Eruptions released billions of tons of sulfide gases & particulates into the oceans, the gases “burped” into the atmosphere• Poisonous gases, and global warming expanded rapidly. Oceans turned thick, The Sky Turned Green, and virtually all oxygen-breathing life in oceans and on land DIED IN A FEW DECADES. Oxygen life return took hundreds of thousands of years.

The Really Bad NEWS: Methane

•At current rates of GHGas increaseWe are about one century away from Extinction Event GHGas levels higher than 900 ppm (CO2). \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Under a Green Sky.docx See Last Pages, 3 scenarios.

•PROBLEM: the new Threat of Methane Release as Permafrost zones thaw out & undersea methane release may worsen.•http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/10/russia.climatechange•http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hundreds-of-methane-plumes-discovered-941456.html http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42269650/ns/us_news-environment/ Video, scroll to pt. 3

How Humanity is at a Turning PointSyllabus, Pg 14

Unchecked GHG induced Climate Change threatens a great loss of human populations, similar to ancient plagues.

The developing vast changes in climates threaten established human life, civilization, species & ecologies, including the degrading of oceans eco-systems & life.

The potential for change is perhaps less than a massive Comet impact, but greater than the Industrial Revolution, Colonialism & the World Wars.

Human ability to adapt away from global fossil-fuel based Industrial-urban growth capitalism, and toward sustainable, environmentally balanced economies is actually possible. (Syllabus pg. 9)

http://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-environment/climate-change/49860.html?itemid=986

But change in time to avert disaster is politically difficult, apparently possible, but far from certain.

Change Probably Must Be Coordinated in at least Five Social Sectors, Worldwide: \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Alternative.Futures.docx

From Capitalism to Sustainable Development; Consumption; Population growth; Energy (Fuel, Sector use & Conservation) Human Values

Biggest Change Agents: Governments, NGOs, Culture & Lifestyle, Business, ReligionsGrowth Capitalism, Politics + cultural resistance, not technological feasibility is the greatest obstacle to human adaptation View “The Story of Stuff” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLBE5QAYXp8

Currently, the greatest political obstacles and resistance lies in the politics, and culture of the United States, China, India and the fast-developing 3rd world nationsWe have between 20 and 40 years to change, in the best-science projections

What Is Sustainable Development ? http://www.hks.harvard.edu/sustsci/ists/docs/whatisSD_env_kates_0504.pdf

Since 1972, SD attempts to reconcile development aspirations with the need to preserve the basic ecological life support systems of Earth. Examples of: http://greenliving.lovetoknow.com/Slideshow:Examples_of_Sustainable_Development

The practice of SD is an ongoing dialogue and re-definition in 40 plus years of scientific work & political agreementsOriginally it was defined as the “ability to make development sustainable—to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 1987 UN Bruntland Commission, and Board on Sustainable Development of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission

By 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development defined it as “three pillars of sustainable development” economic develop- ment, human-social development and environmental protection & preservation—at local, national, regional and global levels.”Human-social development emphasizes “human well-being,” “social justice,’’ “equity,” and “poverty & hunger alleviation.” Major Policy Examples: Electronic Course File \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\

Climate.Change.Policies.Major.Examples.docx The Amazing Milpa http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milpa http://themilpaproject.com/folio_images/9.html

New Vast advances in measuring human development & well-being have been made: Human Development Index http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Index and Well Being Index http://well-beingindex.com/

Nature is valued for itself, rather than its utility for human beings. New Vast advances in measuring Environmental and ecological well-being have been made: Environment Performance Index

http://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/repository/epi/data/2010EPI_summary.pdf   General Progress Index http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genuine_progress_indicator http://www.gpiatlantic.org/gpi.htm

We can now measure & track how we are doing in these realms

Now that we can accurately track Climate, Ecology & Human Conditions, the Big Question is:

Do We Know How We Can Get Out of The Disaster?

The Answer Seems to be Yes, in Two Ways:

A. The Possible Human Reform Sources, and B. Advanced Social Science Modelling Now Shows Paths Out –

The most informative is the GLOBAL TRANSITIONS INIITIATIVE

A. POSSIBLE HUMAN REFORM SOURCES

“Top Down”

Big Power Nation “leaders”… Blair, Gore, Clinton ?

Collective of big nation leaders Blair + Germany + EU policies

International organizations, treaties Kyoto, G-8

Big Capitalist Reformers in league with political leaders Ex: Bill Gates, BP, Climate Action Coalition

“Bottom Up”

Arts & Music Communities Live Earth, Bono

Scientists, most Mass Media, Schools/universities, Environmental groups

International NGOs & Sustainable Development Orgs(increasingly powerful)

Religions & Interfaith NGOs (increasingly powerful)VS

Entrenched capitalists & politicians, Development forces, Consumer attitudes & hungers/habits, Cultures

B. Advanced Social Science Modeling, the Global Transitions Project

The GTI model re-describes successful global Sustainable Development in a “New Sustainability Paradigm” or a Great Transition in the next 100 years.

The Great Transition is a retreat from global capitalist growth and its climate, human and eco-catastrophes, replaced byan emerging sustainable civilization based on a vast change in human cultures that embraces SD, and a quick establishment of Sustainable Development Societies. SEE: the Global Transitions Initiative quick interactive models: http://www.gtinitiative.org/perspectives/taxonomy.html and electronic file \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Alternative.Futures.docx

To avert Ecological Catastrophe, TWO deep changes must combine as major reforms. One reform is widespread Eco-Communities built from the “bottom up”, local communities everywhere based on sustainable agriculture, regional economies & renewable energies. These are advanced especially by global non-governmental organizations, media and education, and religions. The second major reform is a global “top down” Policy Reform, especially from governments & international agreements http://www.tellus.org/publications/files/Global_Scenarios_for_the_Century_Ahead.pdf

The 21st Century projections are: * Severe crises will ensue from 2015 to 2040. Policy Reforms from governments will be weak until after 2020. * Eco-Communalism based on Sustainable Development will grow strongly from 2020

forward with increasing rapidity. * Large zones of Barbarism, and some Fortress Nation-states will opt out. * About 2050 Climate Tipping Point disasters may be stalled, and Co2 levels will stabilize back to 350 ppm. * Late 21st century improvements in species death, human death, population, toxic pollution, global poverty, hunger, and international human development will ensue.However -- if humans pursue only government Policy Reforms, or especially ONLY Market-based reforms, then Climate Disasters and species death will increase, and humanity will descend into Barbarism, and all life will be imperiled.

HOW HARD IS IT TO BRING ABOUT THIS HUGE CHANGE ?Scientifically, moderately hard. See A. Politically, even harder, but possible. See B

A. IPCC 2007 Report Scientific Projections.A 2 to 4 degree C increase is predicted for 21st century. No parallel in last 50 million years.even a 50% reduction of CO2 levels in this century would stabilize atmospheric Carbon but

only for less than a decade, (stabilizing temperatures briefly). Much more than a 50% reduction is required to eventually decrease atmospheric CO2 and warming. Perhaps do-able, See Plan B 4.0 IPCC link http://www.globalpolicy.org/images/pdfs/0504ipccthree.pdf

B. IN POLITICS, AND ECONOMICS, CAN WE CHANGE FAST ENOUGH ?

Hamilton Political Feasibility Scale 1 – 10, 1=easy to change, 10 = almost impossiblChina, India, and US must change public policies, fossil-fuel, industrial, & consumption. 7 ?Positive trends must be simultaneously forced in Population growth, urban & land-use, de-forestation, retreat from industrialization/fossil fuels, consumption, & renewable energy growth in the most developed & developing nations. 6-7 ?Green policies & Sustainable Development must spread quickly through the Southern world, and from Europe, to US, to big developing economies, inside of 30 years. Technologically, it is possible: http://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-environment/climate-change/49860.html?itemid=986 6 ?Global Transitions modeling says it is possible with Eco-Communalism + Policy Reform 7 ?

SCIENCE DENIAL, and POLITICAL/CORPORATE OPPOSITION IN THE UNITED STATES

Only 13% of Republicans think G. Warming is human induced; 95% Democrats Science Denial (similar to Tobacco) is promoted by pro-capitalist, right-wing media, politicians, parties & business = mindset of Capitalism, Corporate & stockholder earnings, protection of class interests and wealth, Consumption

HOW DO YOU TRACK EVIDENCE FOR THIS EXPLANATION ? Trace the financial/political ties between Science Deniers & Corporations, and right-wing Media outlets & mouthpieces, and “think tanks” and.. Trace their money & effort at spreading Science Denial disinformation to public audiences http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/dailyfacts.html http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/global_warming_contrarians/global-warming-skeptic.html Rush Limbaugh http://mediamatters.org/research/200605230011

Compare the consensus of Sciences about climate, versus the Bogus science denial Understand Bush Administration & 2011 Republican pressure against Scientists; Oil lobbyists & paid-for Politicians in top government & environmental government jobs http://www.truth-out.org/article/the-secret-campaign-president-bushs-administration-deny-global-warming Contrast the above with true Science Advisors and Governments in much of the rest of the world Note the reliance of Mass Media in the rest of the world on valid Science and scientific sources vs US Media

US BIG POWER ELITES ARE DIVIDED

In the US, the Capitalist and Big BusinessCommunities were deeply split on Climate Change by 2007:

Many Big corporate interests pushed foradaptation, alternative energy, green policies

US Climate Action Partnership Pew Foundation http://www.pewclimate.org/ VS

• A Few Big corporate interests, were allied with Cheney/Bush in obfuscation, delay, and outright resistance to Science.

Some have disbanded, and for awhile became weaker: Cooler Heads Syllabus pgs 8-9, sect 3

Global Climate Coalition ExposeExxon.com• Even so, the Business Roundtable-backed USCAP Coalition that backed

Cap & Trade GHG Regulation was defeated in the Senate & doomed by the 2010 Republican gains in Congress

SCIENCE DENIERS – Bought & Paid For

Understanding The Science Deniers 101 http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Climate_change_skeptics

More Sources of Science Denial and political disinformation followGlobal.Warming.ScienceDeniers.Rebuttals.docx

How to Talk to A Science Denierhttp://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how_to_talk_to_a_sceptic.php

Cheney background 1

Philip Cooney background

Exxon Denial Campaign after 1997

See Lecture Files & Links Below Titled:

Exxon Climate Denial Evidence\\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonClimateDenialEvidence.docx

http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/gwdeniers.html Brief description

Exxon Warming Deniers Network\\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonWarmingDeniersNetwork.docx

http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/exxon_report.pdf

Exxon Climate Denial Campaign\\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonScienceDenialCampaign.docx

http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/globalwarming.html http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/exxon-secrets

MAP FROM EXXON TO PAID-FOR DENIERS

Bush Administration’s censorship campaign, and flawed policies on global warming, under Dick Cheney’s secrecy leadership

• Especially suppress all information and references to the National Assessment of Climate Change & NRC reports, and

• Censor & pressure top Agency scientists to downplay, and stop references to Warminghttp://www.truth-out.org/article/the-secret-campaign-president-bushs-administration-deny-global-warming

• Keep Close White House ties to Science Denial organizations, follow their advice:

Exxon/Mobil, George Marshall Inst,Competitive Enterprise Institute, the American Petroleum Institute

Rick Piltz Jan ’07 Congressional testimony http://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2007/02/07/rick-piltz-testimony-before-the-senate-commerce-committee/

• The Goals of the American Petroleum Institute under the Bush Administration, the friendly point man being V.P. Dick Cheney:

1. Voluntary industrial greenhouse gas limits, well below anything science calls for

2. No regulatory caps on emissions3. Put Cheney & Phillip Cooney in charge

of suppression of science information 4. Avoid & suppress scientific information inside Agencies, to Congress & public

Best & Worst, 2007, 2010

2007 Globie Awards http://www.edf.org/article.cfm?contentID=5980

2010 Climate B.S. Awards http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=80061

Leadership, Effective Policy Solutions of Governments

Standard approaches for current “modern” economies to reduce global warming (Kyoto, EU initiatives) include:Reduce energy use (per person, in various economic sectors) Shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources, nuclear, phase-in re-newable energyGeoengineering including carbon sequestration Birth control, to lessen demand for resources

These measures may be politically feasible, but scientifically not enough. Their weakness is the efficiency, new technology and birth control strategies do not reduce the resource consumption nature of the capitalist global “annual growth economies” enough to offset its long-term negative GHG impacts. (See Lester Brown, Plan B 2.0). World economic energy efficiency is presently improving at about half the rate of world economic growth.

A strategy for deeper reduction of global warming in the 21st Century includes: basic changes in capitalist “modern” economies, such as fast development of sustainable or organic farming, massive drops in house-hold energy usesustainable economic sectors which drastically reduce resource consumption & energy use in transportation, industry, and buildings, shift to carbon-use taxes, renewable energystrictly curtail traditional land-use “development” & make it “green”, massive campaigns of birth control in LDCs However, such changes may be politically difficult in the 21st century; may take several centuries.

ENERGY CONSERVATION THE OTHER BIG ANSWER

REDUCES GHG

SAVES MONEY NOW (NEW ALTERNATIVES COST MONEY AT FIRST)California’s Energy Conservation Guruhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUisk0IJlzY

Amazing GHG Reductions in Energy Conservation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USenergy2004.jpg U.S. Energy Use by Sector. 30-40% of energy end- use & GHG emission is from excessive energy use, eg: Energy WASTE. Can be reduced with industrial best practices, with cost-savings + GHG reductions by New Buildings energy architectural standardsOld buildings energy conservation retro-fitResidential Housing & appliances conservation Insulation-windows (infiltration), Heating (incl. Passive Solar), Cooling, Lighting, Waste recycling

Public transportation alternatives http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_levitation_train Industrial process energy use reductionsElectrical transmission improvementsConservation, Major Professions Architects: http://www.aia.org/SiteObjects/files/greenbuilding.pdf

Industrial engineers: http://www.ceere.org/iac/assessment%20tool/index.html

Renewable Energies Natural Gas + Wind (Pickens plan)

Natural Gas is plentiful, useable forelectricity instead of coal with less GHG

Wind… can produce up to 20% of nation’s electricity at current technology

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25588631/ • Biofuels…. The fast-developing

European technology, could replace coal/oil for Industry & Transport Sectors

Biofuels….expanding, adjusting Switchgrass http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5183608 2008 Germany reduces biofuel blend rule: http://www.cleantech.com/news/3765/germany-eases-biofuel-blend-rule In response, the EU boosts non-food related biofuel crops; India boosts biofuel goals http://www.cleantech.com/news/3426/india-eu-affirm-new-biofuels

The European Union’s Policies EU link Also see study link Projections… the EU to cut Carbon emissions by 9.3% of 1990 levels by 20102008 update shows progress only about 1/3 http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-climate-change-policies/article-117453 THIS LINK IS CRITICAL FOR EU POLICY SECTORS List of Measures, detailed by Handout, usually binding on 25 member nations: details link Emissions trading & Clean development policies for new EU nations…slow start, catching up http://www.pewclimate.org/eu-ets/execsum Electricity from renewable energy 11.3%

Biofuels for transport 5.75% by 2010 Electrical co-generation (re-used heat for electricity generation) Regulations by 2006 Biomass Action Plan 69 million tons of oil in 2003 to 150 by 2010 Renewable energy projects $780 million Euros by 2010 Buildings Energy use (40% all energy use) cut

by 20 Million tons CO2 per year by 2010 Product life-cycle energy efficiency by 8/07 Nations and Utilities must offer conservation

incentives and services by June 2007

Best Available Technologies….regulations for pollution control, reduced GHG emissions, and energy efficiency in major polluting industry and agriculture industries & firms by Oct 2007 Energy Efficient electrical motors $2 billion grants by 2006 to improve design CO2 emissions reductions for new cars…manufacturer and import agreements, CO2 tax on vehicles (2007)… 25% reduction in CO2 from 1995 levels by 2009 Grants to shift freight transport away from Road to Rail & Water….$100 million Euros/yr Phase out of AC pollutants

Reduction of Methane & GHG from landfills & large agricultural farms….permit system 2001

Recycling initiatives (esp. for new EU member nations)

Rural Development & Forestry…environment friendly farming & investments in forest $7 Billion Euros/yr, requirement of 25% of dev. funds since 2007 Energy crops subsidy (biodiesel, etc) $450 Euro per hectare to farmers per year spent since 2003Climate Change Research, and Demo Projects

is $16 Billion Euros/year since 2006

INDIVIDUAL EUROPEAN NATIONS HAVE POLICIES IN ADDITION TO THESE EU REQUIREMENTS

Kyoto Treaty 1997 Requirements:

5% cut in GHG from 1990 by 2008-2012 Binding for the 36 nations who signed both the 1990 Convention treaty and the 1997 Kyoto treaty; 175 nations total ratified Kyoto, not US. Covers the major GHG:

Countries in Kyoto Protocol and their emissions targets by 2008/2012 re: 1990EU-15*, + Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia,Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Switzerland - 8%US - 7% voluntary only, not metCanada, Hungary, Japan, Poland - 6%Croatia - 5%New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine 0Norway +1%Australia +8%Iceland +10%  The EU’s 15 member States will redistribute their targets among themselves

KYOTO HAS ACHIEVED 5 % Reduction of GHG compared to 1990 levels, by 2004 which is 4 years earlier than 2008 goal Parties may offset their emissions by domestic energy-use policies or by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere by so-called carbon “sinks” in land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. Only certain activities are eligible. These are afforestation, reforestation, forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation

If a nation fails to meet its target, it must make up the difference in the second commitment period, plus a penalty of 30%. It must also develop a compliance action plan, and its eligibility to “sell” under emissions trading will be suspended.joint implementation (in former East Bloc), clean development mechanism (in LDCs) …..nations allowed to carry out a project in another nation or LDC and count the reductions toward its own goals.emissions trading…nations allowed to transfer difficult goals between themselves when each “other guy” is more able to achieve a reduction.

"registries"-- like bank accounts of a nation's emissions units -- are being set up, along with "accounting procedures," an "international transactions log," and "expert review teams" to police compliance. After 2001 agreements (Marrakesh rules), then progress has been tracked by this accounting system

Individual Nations Reports Links

the G8 June 2007 “non-deal”

American States…What’s Being Done

What is “cap & trade” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading http://www.pewclimate.org/what’s_being_ done/in_the_states/news.cfm State energy building standards Other States adopting Calif. GHG stds States in planning for Climate Change

Descriptions, Links on Major Climate Change Programs of States

GHG compacts with other States Northeast States Emissions Initiative Western states Governors & Emissions

GHG emissions regulations for energy generation Alternative energy incentive tax, & grant programs for alternative industries & consumershttp://www.cnbc.com/id/25642976 2008 update All State energy efficiency programs, incl. utilities

What Cities can do Land Use; Waste mgt; Mass Transit; Energy Conservation are areas of Cities jurisdiction CCP International Cities program:

1. set up GHG data bank, database, monitoring, training workshops, software

2. City energy efficiency operations, and product use

3. Building energy conservation & re-hab = $ savings = less GHG

4. Bicycle paths & mass transit 5. Alternative fuels for city vehicles 6. Methane recovery technology for landfills 7. Help planners link benefits to other goals: air

quality, ozone reduction LINKS city possibilities

Obstacles to US Cities Many think the “issue” is global-only. This

can prevent local action Lack of personnel with technical knowledge Often a lack of financial resources to invest

in up-front costs without higher Govt aid Local energy utilities are usually more

regulated by States Some Local/Regional political cultures

prevent City Leaders from being progressive

US Government Policies History of US Govt policies since 1970sCurrent Bills and actions before the US CongressWarner-Lieberman, 2008 http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gIlax1wtOnl

JGkcoljyqL7PwPqnQ http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/pr

ess/press3241.html Green battle over bill:

http://www.grist.org/news/muck/2007/10/25/index.html

Three US President’s Policies

Obama-Biden Climate Change & Energy Plan

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/17/uselections2008-carbonemissions

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy http://www.usnews.com/blogs/fresh-greens/2008/11/06/how-obama-will-tackle-the-environment.html Al Gore/Obama speeches: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZq6qLePsME http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jVBfP9d4BE

Germany’s Policies Has an elaborate, staged plan, goes beyond EU requirements based on 2004 Energy Renewal Act and 2005 National Climate Protection Plan.German Federal energy Agency has regulatory & funding powers under these plans, with goals, programs & regs to 2020. Germany’s current Kyoto goal to reduce GHG by 2012 -21% compared to 1990 But the Fed. Energy Agency has strict goals of reducing GHG by -40% by 2020 and -80% by 2050.

SPECIFICS OF POLICIES:

Achieve goals without increasing nuclear End coal generated Electricity, replace with “Combined Cycle Gas Turbine” plants, using bio-fuels and bio-gas http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combined_cycle Greatly accellerate biofuels for all sectors of use (transportation, electricity, buildings) Greatly accellerate Wind power, and hydroelectric Industries: must replace use of oil with biomass and strict energy conservation

Germany, continuedPrivate households: must meet strict requirements for: massive insulation; move away from fuel oil and natural gas heat to biomass gas, electric heat, passive solar heat, and other renewable energiesBusiness retail/commercial: strict switch to renewables & conservation similar to housing Transport: shift entirely to biofuels in Rail, and water; reduce freight Trucking; Increase SUBSIDIES to Rail travel and Rail freight industries. CO2 reductions and increasing fuel efficiency mandatory regulations for ALL motors in all vehicles and modes of transport (rail, buses, airplanes, etc).

CO2 motor vehicle tax for inspected vehicles to increase

Organic farming: based on EU definition of organic-raised products. Goal: 20% of arable land by 2012 from 4% in 2006, with massive subsidies for new bio-fuels & alternative organic fertilizers

ELABORATE ECO-FINANCING LAW Tax energy consumption

Eco-tax…. A corporate profits tax on resources waste, eg, not meeting efficiency & CO2 regs…Inspector force. Tax REDUCTIONS allowed for compliant energy producers, agri firms, businesses Effective Emissions Traders in manufacturing, agri firms and electricity are to be exempt from the eco-tax

Germany, continuedEliminate climate damaging tax subsisides & grants in current Federal programs (fuel oils).

Increasingly strict Energy product, buildings codes, and HVAC standards for new buildings, and housing

Energy conservation certificate for used buildings and housing either re-habbed under new loans, or re-sold

England’s Policieshttp://www.carbontrust.co.uk/climatechange/policy/uk.htm UK Climate Change Plan, 2007: Reduction of GHG -14.6% below base year 1990 by 2004; projected -19.4 by 2012, and goal of -60% bgy 2050 Natural gas to steadily replace coal for electricity +10% elect. Generated by renewable and bio fuels by 2010Trust Fund 2001…to develop low greenhouse gases

England, continuedCity of London area emissions trading credits for business & industries 2005Loan Action Scotland : interest free loans to small & medium business for energy conservation Englands industries participate in energy product efficiency stnds of the EUNew buses and 10% of new cars must be 30% below current CO2 stds by 2010

5% of transport fuels must come from renewable biofuels by 2010 Road Tax is reduced for certain fuel efficient cars Energy efficiency stands for new, anr re-habbed buildings; energy certificate required to re-sell ANY building 2002, 2005 Forest land management, government or private owned to increase biomass productionSubsidies increased for sustainable organic farms, and alternative fertilizer industriesCity of London has its own Climate Change Regulatory Agency

RE-THINKING THE SUSTAINABLE ECONOMY:http://www.storyofstuff.com/

Problems in getting China & other Developing economies to tackle Global Warming

According to a Christian Aid report (September 1999), industrialized nations should be owing over 600 billion dollars to the developing nations for the associated costs of climate changes. This is three times as much as the conventional debt that developing countries owe the developed ones.

As the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) notes:Northern Industrialized countries developed much earlier than today’s Southern, poor countries, and have been emitting GHGs [Greenhouse gases] for a hundred or more years, with few restrictions. Since GHG emissions accumulate in the air for centuries, the Northern industrial countries’ GHGs emissions are still present in the earth’s atmosphere. Therefore, the North is responsible for the problem of global warming given their huge historical emissions. It owes its current prosperity to decades of overuse of the common atmospheric space and its limited capacity to absorb GHGs.— Background for COP 8, Center for Science and Environment, October 25, 2002

Other Developing Nations Arguments:

It is unfair to expect the developing & poor world to reduce emissions in the same way, especially considering their development and consumption is for basic needs. But the rich nations have moved on to luxury consumption and high life styles. Furthermore, some emissions in countries such as India and China are from rich North world country corporations out-sourcing their production to these poor South world countries. Products are then exported or sold back to the rich. Yet, currently, the “blame” for such emissions are put only on the producer-nations (India, China) not the out-sourcing corporation & consumer nations (US, France, etc).

Progress in Some Developing Nations in controlling GHG

New Scientist reports that Brazil, China, India and Mexico and other such fast developing countries have slowed their rising greenhouse gas emissions by more than the total cuts demanded of rich nations by the Kyoto Protocol yet this is rarely reported by the mainstream when Bush and others point to China and India concerns. LINK

A 2002 report from the Pew Center for example, highlights how key developing nations have been able to significantly reduce their combined greenhouse gas emissions by some 19 percent, or 300 million tons a year, with possibly another 300 million tons by 2010. Those nations are Brazil, China, India, Mexico, South Africa, and Turkey. LINK.

The China/India/LDC problem: Their Increasing GHG Emissions

Within the next two decades, China is expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, and Their coal-fired power plants will be the primary cause. Every week a new coal plant goes online in China.China’s energy industry as a whole is growing faster than that of any other nation, expanding at a rate three times the global average. In 2005, China's thirst for oil accounted for one-third of the worldwide increase in demand. Such rapid expansion is astonishing.So are its hard-to-stop negative effects for climate change & global warming. And this is just China…Over the past 10 years, NRDC has assembled a team of experts to help China avert catastrophe. LINK.

It is unlikely whether nuclear programs, big in the plans of China and India, can really be feasible, or as good as solutions to GHG reductions as other measures LINK. Even though India & China suffer now from global warming, and their awareness of this is growing, they are not yet committed to cutting GHGs LINKGreen Peace Environmental action in China: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgzKGv9tUFA

China’s Economic Growth vs Environment Pollution:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t77bLtIck2g&feature=related

And WORLD Religions Now Are Tackling Global Warming LINK.

Major Religions Theological re-thinking of the Morality of Climate Change: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iDpfPZCTso

California’s powerful Interfaith Power & Light movement is growing

ARC Project is forging an interfaith GHG alliance of major world religions LINK. Involves:• Sikhs in India have launched a Sikh initiative to reduce fossil and carbon-based fuels used in the kitchens of their gudwaras (temples) where millions of people are fed every day. • in the UK the Union of Liberal and Progressive Synagogues is conducting environmental audits in all its synagogues.• in the USA, the Episcopal Power and Light Ministry is promoting renewable energy among its congregation.ARC has issued a booklet to advise people

• Pressure on the Catholic Church to help deal with global warming is increasing LINK.

• National Council of Churches of the US comprising 340,000 congregations, and the World Council of Churches are starting to develop similar programs. LINK.

• The Baha’I religious leaders support UN climate

change initiatives LINK.Baha'i Views

• Muslims are promoting information, IslamOnline

• The 2009 World Parliament of Religions in Australia will tackle climate change & religious extremism, among the main issues LINK

And Non-Governmental Groups are powerfully entering the battle against global warming

Summaries of & links to national & global climate change action groups

Other Non Governmental Organizations websites link (click on links to Climate Solutions, Climate Justice Initiative, UK Stop Climate Chaos)

** Leading Business climate change policies ** The powerful USCAP Lobbying Goals for new Laws From Congress:

• “fast track” “cap & trade” emissions program• goals of: 90-100% of today’s levels in 10 yrs• and 70-90% (-30 to -10% ) in 15 yrs• Fund a National R & D program with stable financing• Require the EPA to regulate and allow geologic

sequestration of CO2, with demo projects• “consider” Transportation policies to promote lower

carbon fuels; “cost-effectively” reduce vehicle GHG emissions; enhance mass transit with less carbon-intensive energy; promote better urban growth; educate consumers; “look at” how to reduce emissions from air, rail and water

• Align financial (tax) and regulatory requirements for power companies with goals of new energy efficiency programs

• Strong energy codes for buildings, equipment, appliances• Engage seriously in international negotiations

Weaknesses of USCAP proposals: Mainly relies on “cap & trade” regulation and emissions allowances purchasing scheme for industries. Explanation of cap and trade system http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cap_and_trade Doesn’t call for serious reductions inside of 15 years and longer term No clear funding amounts or policy emphasis asked for on the R& D Fund for alternative or renewable energies (link), bio-fuels (link; link) Doesn’t give emphasis to any energy alternatives other than “consider how to” get power generation & transportation to “move away from CO2 fuels” Doesn’t address buildings re-hab, or re-sale Is weak on methane emission controls (farms & landfills), unclear on urban growth controls, nothing on organic farming, no household consumption regulation, no energy tax policies (link), no mandates or demos via government operations & facilities

What Can You Do ?

Inconvenient Truth personal action lists (website handout: go to the middle of the Take Action website page and start clicking on Red action links “At Home”, etc)

Environmental Defense “www.fightglobalwarming.com”

2004, JOHN SCHELLNHUBER, distinguished science adviser at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research in the United Kingdom, identified 12 global-warming tipping points, any one of which, if triggered, will likely initiate sudden, catastrophic changes across the planet.

Understand the 12 “tipping points” that could drive

humanity swiftly into Climate Change, (link)

UNDERSTAND the Obstacles in CURRENT U.S. PUBLIC OPINION

** A 2005 study by Anthony Leiserowitz, published in Risk Analysis, found most Americans are moderately concerned about global warming, but the majority—68 percent—believe the greatest threats are to people far away or to the natural world alone.

** Only 13 percent see any real risk to themselves, their families, or their communities. As Leiserowitz points out, this perception is critical, since Americans constitute only 5 percent of the global population yet produce nearly 25 percent of the global carbon dioxide emissions.

** As long as this dangerous and delusional misconception prevails, the chances of preventing Schellnhuber's 12 points from tipping are virtually nil.

LEISEROWITZ'S STUDY OF risk perception found that Americans fall into "interpretive communities"—cliques, if you will, sharing similar demographics, risk perceptions, and worldviews.

On one end of this spectrum are the naysayers: those who perceive climate change as a very low or nonexistent danger.

Leiserowitz found naysayers to be "predominantly white, male, Republican, politically conservative, holding pro-individualism, pro-hierarchism, and anti-egalitarian worldviews, anti-environmental attitudes, distrustful of most institutions, highly religious, and to rely on radio as their main source of news."

This Naysayer group presented five rationales for rejecting danger:

belief that global warming is natural; belief that it's media/environmentalist hype; distrust of science; flat denial; and conspiracy theories, including the belief that researchers

create data to ensure job security.

These naysayers, who represent only 7 percent of Americans, control much of our government (campaign contributions, Exxon group, Talk Radio/right wing media)

So what will it take to trigger what we might call the 13th tipping point: the shift in human perception from personal denial to personal responsibility? Without the 13th tipping point, we can't hope to avoid global mayhem.

Hope: In spite of The Tragedy of the Commons (individual humans frequently don’t protect common goods)

Cooperation can & does build: Stuart West of the University of Edinburgh found that small groups of people are more likely to come together and cooperate (share resources) when engaged in repeated interactions, and when the competition for resources (or risk) occurs on a more global than local scale.

HERE'S WHAT HAPPENS when we don't cooperate. Left to governments alone, troubles breed and fester. For example, the Kyoto Protocol, ratified by 165 nations (but not the United States), requires its signatories to report their greenhouse gas emissions. A 2004 study by the European Commission Joint Research Centre in Italy found this voluntary reporting to be grossly inaccurate. The United Kingdom, for instance, which advertises itself as a leader in the global warming fight, actually emits up to 92 percent more methane than reported. (The previous 5 slides are from this Link).

HOPEFUL SIGNS OF INCREASING COOPERATION The dramatic change policies of German Industry and government, the EU and to a lesser extent other European nations. The dramatic development of USCAP, as an arm of the Business Roundtable, in the US, probably out-powering the more conservative business forces/Cheney alliance against climate change reforms. The “pick up the ball and run” Activities of US States, Governors, and the separate industrial-led self reforms (See PEW summaries of US business activities).

The fantastic growth and influence of Non Governmental Organization lobbies inside nations and internationally.The late-coming cooperation of major world religions, most of the Mass Media, schools & universities, and cultural/entertainment world Icons, and political figures (including Gore, Blair, Angela Merkl of Germany, etc) The growing political pressures inside China & India to “green up” their development programs. The massive unity of Scientists in their global campaign to study, and make public the information. (Dr. Hamilton website readings).

Humans Will Do This

Together, Tomorrow: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4nceCmigAM