Complexity, Scarcity and the School of the Future

Issues in the world are getting more complex

What are issues of complexity? Cause and effect Variables Permutations Ripple/butterfly wing effect

Natural resource scarcity

US debt crisis

EURO debt crisis

Permanent austerity the way forward? And scarcity driving innovation Originally refers to “retrenchment” of the

social welfare system (Pierson 1999) Are world governments heading towards

permanent austerity? Why? Global economic crisis – Ireland, Greece, Spain Ageing population In welfare states e.g. Nordic countries, inability to

deliver on promises How does this impact on education policy?

Government Policy Policy formulation is set in increasingly

complex settings Black swans (Taleb 2007) – incidents of

low probability or no probability but high impact

Weak signals Don’t have all the answers Planning 25-30 years ahead - strategic

planning

Government PolicyTools and government departments Scenario planning – all agencies Horizon scanning – Security secretariat Futures/ futurology – PSD/PMO and strategic

departments in agencies–Whole of government (WOG) Alvin and Heidi Toffler “Future Shock” 1970 Popularise “information overload” Predicted that people may not be able to cope with rapid

industrial and technological changes

Scenario planning and futures Scenario 1: continued prosperity – status quo Scenario 2: permanent austerity (greater

accountability of fiscal budget); lack of resources (non-renewable and others)

Scenario 2: permanent austerity Greater leverage on ICT because brick and mortar schools are

expensive Moore’s law on technology getting cheaper with time and

ICT becomes very mobile Teachers and students learn from home - telecommuting to

save cost Interaction with other children and with teachers at a

localised community level say with a 10 block radius A school without a building - administrative work done

online and classes conducted at places of interest say a museum for social studies

References Pierson P., 2001, “The new politics of the

welfare state”, Oxford University Press Toffler A., 1970 “Future Shock”, Batam Press Taleb, N., 2007, The Black Swan: The Impact

of the Highly Improbable, Random House