In economics, a shock is an unexpected or unpredictable event that affects an economy, either positively or negatively. Technically, it refers to an unpredictable change in exogenous factors—that is, factors unexplained by economics—which may have an impact on endogenous economic variables.

(after Helmut Lütkepohl (2008), source Wikipedia 21/11/12)

Risk is the potential that a chosen action or activity (including the choice of inaction) will lead to a loss (an undesirable outcome).See figure to the left

(Source: wikipedia 21/11/12)

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Example of a formal risk-analysis method, in this case a Failure Tree (Arbrede Panne). This example is based upon the NEN-norms for risk analysis.

The example is less than perfect, as the NEN norm focuses on cybernetic systems and economic shocks generally are more holistic. The philosophy of identifying cause-and-effect relations are none the less valid in my opinion.

Very roughly put, I see a analogy between the scenario planning explained on the campus weekend and risk analysis.

Assuming correct measurements in place and a correct understanding of the cause-and-effect relations, the combination of risk management and scenario planning could mitigate or prevent shocks