SCENARIO PLANNING:THE CENTRAL TEXAS SUSTAINABLE PLACESPROJECT

Graduate Program in Community and Regional PlanningUT Center for Sustainable Development

Overview

Background on Central Texas ExperienceFive major shortcomings of Scenario Planningin Central TexasSustainable Places Project: The NextGeneration of Scenario Planning SoftwareCurrent Activities Next Steps….

The Central Texas Challenge

Not Unlike Many MetrosFragmented Metro area with many cities, MUDs,and counties not terribly coordinated in managinggrowth and development on a regional scaleOne of the Fastest Growing MSAs in the US for 3decades running…..Many fits and starts – some good plans made (butnot always adopted nor implemented)Recognition of the importance of sustainabilityapproach – that protects environment, improvessocial justices and enhances a place basedeconomy

1998 - _Present

2035 RTP37 Project

Activity Centers

Activity Center - Urban VillageWork, Live and Play

In Pursuit of Regional Sustainability

SustainableCommunities

Regional PlanningGrant

Address Five Major Problems

1. Transaction Costs to Doing ScenarioPlanning

2. Disbelief among important stakeholders thatit is based on market and profit realities

3. Often, indicators do not match the localvalues and therefore don’t aid in learning,adoption or implementation

4. N-table problem5. Helps clarify issues but not always solutions

Austin SustainableCommunities GrantBuild on Existing Regional Collaboration toImplement the Regional Plan Concepts in the ECTand CAMPO 2035 Plan through:Creation of the next generation sustainabilityAnalysis Software SuiteBeta Test and refine the software suite withDemonstration Planning Projects with CentralTexas Communities committed to the CAMPO2035 PlanTrain Region’s network of planners in the use ofthe New Software and apply to all centers….

The Central Texas SustainablePlace Analytic Suite

Assemble the best elements from all collaborators to producethe next generation of sustainability scenario planningsoftwareThe new “state of the art” sustainability analytic tools willincrease local usability and local capacity for analysis with ET+being the backbone of the effort.The tool will include many locally calibrated indicators ofsustainability that will enable Central Texas communities tomake better informed choices in land use and transportationplanning.Create a tool that better enables user learning and solutionswith pop up windows, links to source documents andthresholds for guidance where appropriate…

Sustainable Places Project:Analytic Tools Team

Building on the ET+ Framework

Suite of planning tools:Prototype Builder

Return on Investment (ROI) model

Scenario BuilderExtension for ArcGIS

University of Texas – Center forSustainable Development

Project Lead – Coordinates all partnerorganizations and working with local planningconsultants on the demonstration sites.Adding many Central Texas calibratedsustainability metrics for use with model.Adding higher user functionality with pop-upwindows that explain importance of each indicatorwith hyperlinks to on-line sources as well asplanning and design solutions when indicators arenot in a desired state.Long term steward and developer of analyticsystem for Texas and beyond

The Sustainable Places Project: Dealingwith Past Planning Shortcomings….

Many citizens and developers argue too muchplanning is utopian without grounding in fiscalrealities of the land development process andbottom line profit considerations…ET+ betteraddresses this upfront….Transparent and accessible tool

simple Arc-Excel linkmost calculations performed in Excel

Start at Building levelfinancially feasible scenarioswealth of available data on buildingseasily modeled indicators (land use, energy, financial)

Criterion Planners & AssociatesProblem: 80% of Scenario Planning Effort in start up…..

Solution: maximize usability with a standardized data schemaand reduce transaction costs where feasible with new tool: DataWizard

Data Quality WizardBad geometries removed (null, self-intersecting, etc)Street-centerlines-to-parcel-rights-of-way alignment checkedMulti-part demographic parcels splitProper boundary-to-land-use topology ensured

Provide technical design coordinationInsure integrated operationsStandardized Data Schema

HDR, Inc.

Sustainable Return on Investment (SROI)Monetize sustainable development benefitsProduce an inventory of social values to beused within the tool to determine monetaryvalues of the social and environmental impactsExamples: Value of a Statistical Life (VSL),Value of a Quality Adjusted Life Year (QALY),Social Cost of an Incremental Ton of GreenHouse Gases (GHGs), Social Cost of anIncremental Ton of Various Criteria AirContaminants (CAC’s), Social Value ofEcosystem Services, Business ProductivityImpacts, and Jobs and Tax Impacts.

Center for Transportation Research

Dynamic Traffic Assignment ModelEnsure transportation-related performancemeasures are appropriately incorporated intothe modelPossible regionally calibrated Bike andPedestrian Quality/Supply side factors tied toactual counts for design alternatives

18 “Apps” Either completed or underdevelopment with MRC Univ. of Utah

Growth Location PredictionBuilding and Land Use TypesBuilding EnergyConsumption7D Transportation EffectsReturn on InvestmentHousing + TransportationCostsAir Quality and CO2 ImpactsFiscal ImpactPublic HealthEmployment Growth

Employment ResilienceDevelopment CapitalRedevelopment TimingWater ConsumptionTransportation SafetyWorkforce HousingLEED-NDArts and Public AmenitiesLocal Jobs HousingBalance

Texas Advanced ComputingCenterCloud veil hosting of the analytic tool (web basedversion)Web display and visualization technology

Hardware and softwareIntegration with CityEngine 3D visualization

Site for one or two demo site charrettes – @ UTVisualization LabOn-line Participatory Planning Interface as well asTemplates for results from Charrettes for localitieswanting to share and expand the participation withinthe community via the WWW

Preliminary List ofSustainability Indicators

Walkable Schools

Parks for Everyone

Shaded, walkable str eets

Accessible Community Services

Accessible Retail Services

Healthy Food Access

Urban Efficiency

Land Use Diversity

Employment Center Competitiveness

Efficient Use of Land

Transit Supportive Neighborhoods

Accessible Important Places

Urban Forest

Park Space Availability

Healthy Water Systems

Climate Change

Air Quality

Road construction cost

Total Revenues

Total Expenditures

Fiscal Balance

Transit Accessibility

Pedestrian Friendly

Transit Supportive Activity

Sidewalks

Live-Work Places

Housing for Everyone

Adequate Parking

Necessary Public Services

Access to Education

Trend Scenario– Hutto, TX

Compilation Scenario– Hutto, TX

Select Indicators from Hutto

Tie to implementation solutions

Quality Growth Toolbox

Quality Growth Toolbox

Address Five Major Problems

1. Transaction Costs to Doing ScenarioPlanning (Data Schema/Wizard/Training)

2. Disbelief among important stakeholders thatit is based on market and profit realities. ET+

3. Often, indicators do not match the localvalues and therefore don’t aid in learning,adoption or implementation (Good Process –ask and then use appropriate analytics)

4. N-table problem (On-line engagement)5. Helps clarify issues but not always solutions

(Integrate planning and design solutions info)

Conclusions

Assemble the best elements from allcollaboratorsProduced a new “state of the art” suite ofsustainability analytic tools that increaseusability and local capacity for analysis withET+ the backbone of the effortHelp move Central Texas communitiesforward in realizing the Regional Vision….Energize local planning with more informedchoices from the analytics…grow the systemthrough open source community….

Q&A?