scenario planning on lte mobile network virtualization xue bai supervisor : prof. heikki hämmäinen...
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Scenario Planning on LTE mobile network Virtualization
Xue BaiSupervisor : Prof. Heikki HämmäinenInstructor : Nan Zhang
MSc. in Communications Ecosystem
Aalto University
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Agenda
• Research Objectives
• Background of LTE & LTE virtualization
• Methodology
• Scenario planning
• Brainstorm(PEST model)
• Key Findings
• Conclusion
• Future work
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Objectives
• The mobile networks are expensive and scarce• Network virtualization reduces the amount of infrastructure
– reduces energy usage
• What are the alternative scenarios of virtualized LTE network for next 5 years?
• Supporting strategic questions:
– What is the role of key stakeholders in LTE virtualization?– How will different scenarios influence the mobile network
virtualization in the future?
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Background --- LTE(Long-Term Evolution )• A standard for wireless communication
Figure 1: Basic LTE system architecture(Harri&Antti 2011)
Core network
Radio access network
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Background --- LTE Core network virtualization
Figure 2: 3GPP compliant OpenFlow controlled gateway architecture (Jari 2013)
HSS
MME PCRF
UE E-UTRAN
OpenFlow Controlled GW
S-GWP-GW
OpenFlowController
forwarding forwarding
Operator’ sIP services
S1-MME
S1-ULTE-Uu SGi
Gx Rx
S11
S6a
1-n
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Background --- LTE Access network virtualization(Air interface)
Figure 3: Virtualized LTE eNodeB protocol stack (Yasir 2012)
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Methodology ---Scenario Planning(1/2)
• To forecast the future?– Too difficult
• To envision alternative futures (= scenarios)– Not just the probable futures, but also the improbable ones– Not to forecast, but to bound the uncertainty
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Methodology ---Scenario Planning(2/2)
Figure 1: Scenario planning process (Schoemaker 1993)
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Methodology ---Brainstorm
• An individual or group process of idea generation
• To identify key trends and uncertainties
• PEST analysis – Economic / industry forces– Social forces– Technological forces– Political / regulatory forces
Importance
UncertaintyKey uncertainties
Key trends
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Key findings ---Major stakeholders(value network)
Network equipment
provider
Service/content provider
End-user
Mobile virtual network operator
Mobile network provider
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Key findings ---Scenario analysis(1/5)
MNO: Mobile Network OperatorCSP: Cloud Service Provider NEP: Network Equipment ProviderMVNO: Mobile Virtual Network Operator
Key uncertainties:U1: Will LTE virtualization result in intense competition in the mobile market ?U2: Will virtualization of LTE lower the costs?
High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
Sc.2:MNO-driven mobile market
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
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Key findings ---Scenario analysis(2/5)
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition• Regulator has the power to increase the competition.
• MNOs will be pushed to give the cloud out.
• NEPs may own the network, since they operate the network now.
• CSPs may establish their own mobile network to compete with MNOs.
• CSPs/NEPs may challenge the leadership position of MNO in the market.
• More new players will entry the market.
• Price to consumers may decrease.
High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
Sc.2:MNO-driven mobile market
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
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Key findings ---Scenario analysis(3/5)
Sc.2: MNO-driven mobile market
• MNOs may try to replace the role of CSPs.
• CSPs may rent the network from MNOs to reduce the cost.
• NEPs may need expand to provide ICT solutions to keep their profit.
• High barrier will be set for new entrants.
• The price for consumers may not decrease significantly.
High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
Sc.2:MNO-driven mobile market
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
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Key findings ---Scenario analysis(4/5)
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
• MNOs may sale the network to NEPs/MNVO to compete with CSPs.
• The price for consumers may decrease.
• High barrier will be set for new entrants.
• The level of virtualization is not high.
High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
Sc.2:MNO-driven mobile market
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
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Key findings ---Scenario analysis(5/5)
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
• MNOs will not take the role of CSPs.
• MNOs may rent/sale the cloud services to CSPs.
• MNOs may rent/sale the network to NEPs.(No threaten to MNOs)
• The revenue of MNOs may increase because of the better performance.
• The price for consumers may not decrease.
• High barrier will be set to new entrants.
High competition
Low competition
Cost reduction happend
No cost reduction
Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition
Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO
Sc.2:MNO-driven mobile market
Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP
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Conclusion & Future work
• The level of LTE virtualization will be determined by the cost reduction.
• LTE virtualization may change the market value network in the future.
• Scenarios are built from the perspective of LTE virtualization.
• Key uncertainties are correlated to a certain extent.
• Strategic planning can be done by any given key stakeholder in the future.
• Cost reduction can be measured in OPEX and CAPEX.
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Thank you!