sceleton framework and some resultssceleton framework and some results 13.3.2015 juha kiviluoma,...
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SCELETON FRAMEWORK
AND SOME RESULTS
13.3.2015Juha Kiviluoma, Jussi Ikäheimo, Pekka Savolainen, Miguel Azevedo, Erkka Rinne
Neo-Carbon Energy 3rd Researcher DaysEspoo 1.6.2015
Contents
• Sceleton energy modelling framework (Juha & Jussi)
• Exploring PV and storage investments (Juha)
P2G, P2XJussi Ikäheimo
P2G, P2XJussi Ikäheimo
Long term generalized storage StoSSch
Erkka Rinne
Improved district heatingJussi Ikäheimo
Frequency responseMiguel Azevedo
Interface and framework developmentPekka Savolainen
ScenariosGeographic scopeMiguel Azevedo & Jussi Ikäheimo
Intra-day stages
Day-ahead stages
time
…
Settlement period(1 hour)
Wilmar optimizes plant scheduling 36 hours ahead with rolling horizon
Problem: large seasonal hydropower reservoirs and other long-term storages
Stored energy has value well beyond the model horizon
How to control the use of storages?How to take uncertain future into account?
• Problems:• Changed generation fleet?• Changed climate?• Does not give
comparable marketprices
Old solution: Try to follow historical reservoir levels.
maximum
Re
se
rvo
ir c
on
ten
t
t i m eJan
Use less hydropowerIf below reference path
Use more hydropowerIf above reference path
Dec
referencepath
• Finds cost-optimal generation schedule for the next 365 days• Based on stochastic wind power feed-in and hydropower inflow
(currently 22 historical scenarios)Storage charging/discharging decisions minimise expected costs (in all scenarios)
• Finds Storage values (€/MWh): How much less (€) would the generation schedule cost if there were on unit (MWh) more storage energy available?
Stochastic Storage Scheduler (StoSSch)
WILMAR JMM & StoSSch
Wilmar JMM StoSSch
every day (12:00):– power system data– current storage levels
historical scenarios
storage values
realisation of inflow, wind, solar power
Balmorel
• Generation planning model, LP optimization
• Three weeks with hourly+ time steps
10/02/2016 14
Background for PV and storage investments
A comparison of flexibility from different sources Including batteries
Impact of flexibility on the ’optimal’ share of wind power/PVNordic+Baltic+Germany+Poland
Lot of reservoir hydro powerLow solar resource
Long term futureGeneration planning + unit commitment and dispatch
10/02/2016 15
Type Fuel
Eff. at full
outputInv. Cost,
€/kW/ year
Fixed cost, €/
kW/year
Variable cost,
€/MWhEngine/GT Nat. gas 40 % 700 17 1.21ST cond. Coal 46 % 1500 36 1.45ST cond. inno Coal 50 % 1875 36 1.45CC cond. Nat. gas 60 % 1250 28 0.67Nuclear U235 33 % 4760 97 1.21ST CHP Coal 50 % 2275 55 1.61CC CHP Nat. gas 64 % 1500 40 0.67Heat boiler Fuel oil 95 % 105 4 1Heat boiler Nat. gas 95 % 100 4 0.67Heat boiler Wood 85 % 400 19 2.7Heat boiler Elec. 98 % 60 1 0.5Boiler + grid Elec. 98 % 190 1 0.5Heat pump Elec. 300 % 575 4 0PHP - 100 % 329 9Battery Elec. 100 % 50-150 2Wind turbine - 100 % 950-1600 36PV - 100 % 25-1394 10
10/02/2016 16
Shorthand DescriptionBase No flexibility optionsBattery Li-ion battery at 50–150 €/MWhPHP Pumped hydro power in South Norway, 6094 MWTrans. Max. 1400 MW between each regionTrans. unlim. Unlimited transmission investmentsDem. resp. Price sensitive demand responseFlex. Lower minimum load in conventional power plantsElec. boil. Electric boilers in district heatingHeat stor. Heat storage in district heatingHeat pump Heat pumps in district heatingEB+HP+HS Elec. boil. + heat stor. + heat pumpAll All flexibility options (trans. max. 1400, battery 100
€/MWh)Batteries 1 MWh 1 MW
Wind capacity factor: 30.8 – 42.8 %PV capacity factor: 9.5 – 10.1 %
10/02/2016 17
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Aver
age
cost
of w
ind
pow
er (€
/MW
h)
Share of wind power of total electricity production
BaseBattery 50 €/MWhEB+HS+HPTrans unlim.All
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PV
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
400350300250200150100 50
Shar
e in
ele
c. g
ener
atio
n
Cost of PV €/kW
All flex.Bat. 50 €/MWhBat. 100 €/MWhBat. 150 €/MWhBase
10/02/2016 19
Wind power
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
400350300250200150100 50
Shar
e in
ele
c. g
ener
atio
n
Cost of PV €/kW
All flex.Bat. 50 €/MWhBat. 100 €/MWhBat. 150 €/MWhBase
10/02/2016 20
PV + Wind power
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
400350300250200150100 50
Shar
e in
ele
c. g
ener
atio
n
Cost of PV €/kW
All flex.Bat. 50 €/MWhBat. 100 €/MWhBat. 150 €/MWhBase
10/02/2016 21
Cost of PV€/MW
Sha
re in
ele
ctric
ity p
rodu
ctio
n
10/02/2016 22
Winter week
020406080
100120140160180200
BatteryPVWindDemand
GW
10/02/2016 23
Summer week
020406080
100120140160180200
BatteryPVWindDemand
GW