Voting IntentionTracking Poll

13th Feb 2011

Methodology and Weighting

RED C interviewed a random sample of 1025 adults aged 18+ by telephone between the 8th-10th Feb 2011.

A random digit dial (RDD) method is used to ensure a random selection process of households to be included – this also ensures that ex-directory households are covered.

Half of the sample are interviewed using an RDD landline sample, with the other half conducted using an RDD mobile phone sample, this ensures 98% coverage of the population reaching landline only households, mobile only households and those with both a landline and a mobile.

Interviews were conducted across the country and the results weighted to the profile of all adults. A further past vote weighting is included that takes the current recall for how people voted at the last election, compares this to the actual results, and weights the data to halfway between the two.

Finally vote intention results are based on those who will actually go and vote, using a 10 point scale, where 1 is not at all likely and 10 is very likely, those rating 4 to 10 are included as being those who will actually go and vote.

SUNDAY BUSINESS POST – 13th Feb - Opinion Poll

Fine Gael upward trend continues

Fine Gael sees a further gain in first preference vote share as undecided voters begin to make up their minds, and in doing so support the party. They take 38% share of the first preference vote and while this is up 3% since a week ago, of more interest is the trend over the campaign. When polls are conducted so frequently the trend is key to the analysis, rather than the poll on poll movement. The trend for Fine Gael is very positive, with a series of poll results since the beginning of the year that has seen the party move from 32, to 35, to 33, to 37, to 35 to 38. This upward trend means on average in the past three polls (those taken in February) Fine Gael is securing 37% share overall.

Independent and other parties are the other big winner this week. Having seen the largest number of independent candidates registered in this election earlier in the week it is perhaps not a surprise that many voters are now choosing this option. Particularly when such a large number of undecided voters are past Fianna Fail supporters with no home to go to at the moment. In total Independents/others secure 14% share, up 3% since last week, and averaging out at 12% over the past three polls.

Fianna Fail could potentially be suffering as Independents gain share, given that such a large number of past Fianna fail candidates are now running as Independents. Certainly in this poll the party secures just 15% of the first preference share, down 25 since a week ago, and leaving the average share over the past 3 polls at 17%. This perhaps is the most surprising result from the poll, as many commentators myself included had suspected that the Fianna Fail vote would harden in the weeks before the election. Now it appears that despite the popular appeal of new leader Michael martin the party may not see a late surge of undecided voters move back to the party. Even the spiral of silence analysis that we conduct suggest that the share is not significantly depressed by “shy voters”.

Labour will also be disappointed in today's poll, which sees the party secure 20% first preference, but this figure is also inline with recent trends that has seen the party strength of support weaken in the past few weeks. Their average for the past three polls is now relatively stable at 20%, but in order to ensure they remain in the mix of the next government the party will want to see support return to the low to mid 20’s.

Sinn Fein also lose share in this poll, down 3%, to leave the party back at 10% and back to the same levels seen before the Donegal by election surge. This is a very similar pattern to that the party had at the last election, and may mean they do not benefit as much as had been hoped for. Finally the Green party secure 3% of the vote which is remaining relatively steady as the campaign progresses, but still may not be enough to see them take any seats.

38%

15%

20%

10%

3%

14%

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

18%

32%

27%

9%

4%

10%

17%

33%

27%

11%

3%

8%

17%

34%

23%

14%

2%

10%

16%

33%

21%

13%

2%

15%17

%

35%

22%

13%

2%

11%15

%

38%

20%

10%

3%

14%

5%

7%

27%

42%

6%

10%

Fianna Fáil Fine Gael Labour Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

General election 2007

Oct 2010

Nov 2010

Dec 2010

Jan 2011

6th Feb 2011

13th Feb 2011

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

CURRENT FIRST PREFERENCE SUPPORT

Core figures

13th Feb 2011

Excluding undecided

2007 Election Results

% % %

Fine Gael 31 38 27

Labour 16 20 10

Fianna Fáil 12 15 42

Sinn Féin 8 10 7

Green Party 2 3 5

Independents/

Others14 15 6

Undecided 17

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

38%

20%

15%

10%14%

37%

20%16%

10%3%

14%

3%

Normal D/K allocation Past Vote weighted D/K Allocation

Fine Gael Labour Fianna Fail Sinn Féin Green Party Independents/ Other

Spiral of Silence Allocation of Undecided Voters.If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would you give your first preference vote? (Base: All adults WHO WILL VOTE 18+)

The Spiral of SilenceAssumes that one party is so poorly thought of that respondents are “ashamed” to admit that they will vote for them.

To take account of this we look at how those who are currently undecided or refuse to give a preference voted at the last general election.

We then re-allocate 50% of these to the party they voted last time, and 50% to how the rest claim they will vote this time.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

GE 0

2Ap

l 05

Sep-

05De

c-05

Jan-

06Fe

b-06

Mar

-06

Apr-0

6M

ay-0

6Ju

n-06

Jul-0

6Se

p-06

Oct-0

6No

v-06

Jan-

07Fe

b-07

Mar

-07

Apr-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7M

ay-0

7GE

07

Sep-

07Oc

t-07

Nov-

07Ja

n-08

Feb-

08M

ar-0

8Ap

r-08

May

-08

Jun-

08Se

p-08

Oct-0

8No

v-08

Jan-

09Fe

b-09

Mar

-09

Apr-0

9M

ay-0

9M

ay-0

9Se

p-09

Sep-

09Oc

t-09

Nov-

09Ja

n-10

Feb-

10M

ar-1

0Ap

r-10

May

-10

Jun-

10Se

p-10

Oct-1

0No

v-10

Dec-

10Ja

n-11

Feb-

11Fe

b-11

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

38%

20%

15%

Independent

10%

3%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

14%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

GE

07

Oct

-07

Nov

-07

Jan-

08

Feb-

08

Mar

-08

Apr-

08

May

-08

Jun-

08

Sep-

08

Oct

-08

Nov

-08

Jan-

09

Feb-

09

Mar

-09

Apr-

09

May

-09

May

-09

Sep-

09

Sep-

09

Oct

-09

Nov

-09

Jan-

10

Feb-

10

Mar

-10

Apr-

10

May

-10

Jun-

10

Sep-

10

Oct

-10

Nov

-10

Dec

-10

Jan-

11

Feb-

11

13th

feb

11

If there were a general election tomorrow, to which party or independent candidate would give your first preference vote?(Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

38%

20%

15%

Independent

3%

10%

14%

42%

24%

18%17% 17%

13%14%

16%18%

17%15%

27%

31%32%

33%34%

32%

35%

33%

37%

35%

38%

10%

23%

27% 27%

23%24%

21% 21%22%

20%

7%

10%9%

11%

14%

16%

14%13%

12%13%

10%

5%

3%4%

3%2%

3%4%

2%3%

2%3%3%

6%

9%10%

8%

10%11%

12%

15%

11% 11%

14%

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

GE 07 SBP Sep2010

SBP Oct2010

SBP Nov2010

SBP Dec2010

Irish SunDec 2010

PaddyPower

Jan 2011

SBP30th Jan

2011

PaddyPower

2nd Feb2011

SBP 6th Feb

2011

SBP13th Feb

2011

General Election 2011Run Up and Campaign 1st Preference Poll Trends (Base: All adults 18+)

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Green Party

PDs

Independent

Fianna Fáil

Labour

Fine Gael

Independent

Sinn Féin

Green Party

9 11 12 10 1217 17 20

10 8 10 8 6 8 10 127

15 136

25 23 2422 18

29 29 27

1210

1715

44 41 37 34

20

23 24

23

24 25 2425

11

189

13

46 4943

41

8 5 5 9

25

20 22

14

7 10 7 9

12

8

79

4 7 28

10 179

11

2

4 7

2

7 4 3 3

15

3

3

34

62 2 7 3

45

3

02

1

14 14 18 18 15

15

1714 9

1214 19 14 15

24 15

17

2019

31

14 13 12 13 1710

18 14 158 12 7 11 11 11 14

2618 13

23

Second Preference among First preference voters

FG%

FF%

Labour% %

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn FéinGreen

Independents

Undecided

First Preference

Second Preference

TOTAL%

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

9 9 11 1019 19 20 22

16 12 13 13 10 10 10 104 2 2 2

10 11 9 8

2920 21 20 28

21 20 20

12 10 11 10

98 6 5

8 7 8 10

13

17 15 16 15

17 17 18

8 8 8 910

9 10 12

10 15 12 11

1213 10 11 14

16 14 15

11 12 11 1015

15 14 15

6056 57 57

24 27 29 27 2229 31 30

55 57 57 57 59 62 63 61

3 2 3 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 3 4 3 4 5 5

Attitude to 1st Preference Voting for this Party at Next General Election

FG%

FF%

Labour% % %

(Base: All Adults Likely to Vote – 913)

Definitely Will

Likely To

Might Do

Probably Won’t

Definitely Won’t

D/K Refused

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011

Jan

2011

6th F

eb 2

011

Dec

201

0

13th F

eb 2

011