sba 2013 hurricane prep

7/28/2019 Sba 2013 Hurricane Prep

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Protect Your BusinessThis Hurricane Season

Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center

Bob Boyd , President & CEO, Agility Recovery For copies of the slides presented during todays session,

please visit:

http://agil.me/sba2013hurricaneprep


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Agenda

Dr. Gerry Bell1. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks

Bob Boyd2. Preparing YOUR Organization3. Lessons Learned


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Dr. Gerry BellNOAA Climate Prediction Center

Lead Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecaster at the NOAA Climate

Prediction Center His research led to the establishment of NOAAs seasonal Atlantic

hurricane outlooks in 1998 Specializes in monitoring global climate variability, especially patterns

related to the El Nio, the multi decadal cycle, and other large scale atmospheric processes.

Published multiple times, appeared on many major broadcast networks, and given many lectures on tropical weather

Received the prestigious NOAA 2005 Isaac Klein Award for his leading role in developing NOAAs seasonal Atlantic hurricane outlooks.


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NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricanewww.climate.gov/news features/videos

Gerry Bell, Ph. D., NOAA/NWS/Climate Prediction Center

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane


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1. Features of NOAAs hurricane season outlooks

2. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks

3. The Atlantic hurricane season outlook

4. Recipe for a hurricane5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks

6. Hurricane landfalls

7. Summary


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NOAAs Seasonal Outlook Regions


Atlantic BasinStorm Tracks 1980 2005

Central and Eastern North Pacific Storm Tracks 1980 2005

Central Pacific Eastern Pacific

Images Courtesy of Wikipedia

NOAA issues seasonal hurricane outlooks for the Atlantic basin, the central North Pacific, and the eastern North Pacific.

Main Development Region


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Features of NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks

Active/ inactive seasons often result from coherent set of atmospheric conditions controlled by tropical climate patterns. Not Random.

Predicting tropical climate patterns is the basis for making a seasonal hurricane outlook.

Outlooks indicate the expected overall seasonal activity.

Outlooks are

NOT

a seasonal

hurricane

landfall

prediction

and

do

not

predict levels of activity for any particular region.

Outlooks are probabilistic, meaning the stated ranges have a certain likelihood of occurring.


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2. NOAAs 2013 hurricane season outlooks

NOAAs 2013 Hurricane Season Outlooks

NOAAs outlooks indicate expected overall seasonal activity. They are not a seasonal hurricane landfall prediction. Persons in hurricane prone regions should prepare every year regardless of the seasonal outlook.


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Atlantic Hurricane Season Basics

Atlantic hurricane season runs from 1 June through 30 November.

Most hurricane activity (90% or more) occurs during August October.

We are now 18 years into a high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes that began in 1995.

12 of the last 18 seasons have been above normal, compared to only two above normal seasons during the preceding low activity era 1971 1994.

No consensus on how long the current high activity era will last.

Historically, high and low activity eras have lasted 25 40 years.

3. NOAAs Atlantic hurricane season outlook


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2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/hurricane/

This outlook will be updated in early August.


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How Well NOAA Outlooks Have Done in the Past

NOAA Atlantic

hurricane

season

outlooks

issued

in

May

have

correctly

predicted the season strength (Above , near , or below normal) 70% of the time. Outlooks issued in August were correct 79% of the time.


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2013 Expected Season Strength Compared to Past Seasons

ACE index measures overall season strength by accounting for the combined number, intensity, and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes.


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3.1 Atlantic hurricanes since 1995 compared to 1971 1994

Comparing Hurricane

Numbers

Between

High and LowActivity Aras

5

8

0

2

4

6

8

10

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Hurricanes

Average Hurricanes Per Season

Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared tothe 1971 1994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more thandoubled.

1.5

3.7

0

1

2

3

4

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Major Hurricanes

Average Majo r Hurricanes Per Season


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Recipe for a Hurricane

4. Recipe for a hurricane

Warm Ocean

A pre existing disturbance Area of low pressure and thunderstorms moving westward from Africa

Not too much wind shear


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Warm Ocean


Main DevelopmentRegion


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A Pre Existing Disturbance



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Not Too Much Wind Shear


WEAK SHEAR = FAVORABLE

low clouds

high cloudsSTRONG SHEAR = UN FAVORABLE

E Y E

LOWER-LEVEL WINDS

UPPER-LEVEL WINDSUPPER-LEVEL WINDS

LOWER-LEVEL WINDS


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Typical Conditions Associated withActive Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

This set of conditions has strong links to tropical climate factors. There is an extensive monitoring program to assess and predict these conditions and the climate factors.

WarmerAtlantic SSTs

Wetter, strongerWest African

Monsoon

DrierWeaker TradeWinds(Dark Blue

Arrow )

Upper- levelEasterly windsexpand westward(Green arrows)

Warmer Ocean

Higher Pressure inUpper Atmosphere

Favorable African Easterly J et

Warmer OceanReduced Wind ShearLower Air Pressure(Red Area )

Main Development Region(MDR)


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5. Science behind NOAAs hurricane season outlooks

Science Behind NOAAs Hurricane Season Outlooks

Three main climate factors strongly control Atlantic hurricane season

1. Tropical multi decadal (25 40 year) signal : Reflects fluctuations in West African monsoon strength, and the wind and air pressure patterns across the tropical Atlantic Ocean.

2. El Nio and La Nia; Reflect large year to year changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.

3. Atlantic Ocean temperatures

NOAAs seasonal outlooks are based on predictions of these climate factors, along with a suite of climate model forecasts.


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Tropical Multi Decadal Signal

This climate pattern lasts 25 40 years, and produces high activity era for Atlantic hurricanes: warmer waters, reduced wind shear, favorable winds that strengthen cloud systems coming from Africa.

Stronger, Wetter West African

MonsoonDrier

Main Development Region (MDR)

Warmer Ocean

Warmer Ocean


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More Shear

Stronger Wind Shear, Fewer Hurricanes

Warm, Wet

La Nia favors more hurricane

activity by

decreasing

the

vertical

wind shear.

Less Shear

Weaker Wind Shear, More Hurricanes

Cool, Dry

La Nia


El Nio and La Nia

El Nio suppresses hurricane activity.

Its strong wind shear can prevent hurricanes from forming, and can also kill an existing hurricane.

El Nio

El Nio and La Nia reflect large year to year changes in tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures.


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Hurricane and Tropical Storm Hazards

Hurricane and Tropical Storm hazards include:

1. Storm surge2. Inland flooding3. Heavy rains4. High Winds5. Tornadoes

6. Rip currents



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Slide 3.1 Repeated: Atlantic hurricanes since 1995 compared to 1971 1994

Comparing Hurricane Numbers Between High and LowActivity Eras

5

8

0

2

4

68

10

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Hurricanes

Average Hurricanes Per Season

Since 1995, the number of hurricanes has increased by 60% compared tothe 1971 1994 period, and the number of major hurricanes has more thandoubled.

1.5

3.7

0

1

2

3

4

1971-1994 1995-2012

Atlantic Major Hurricanes

Average Majo r Hurricanes Per Season


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Comparing U.S. Hurricane Landfalls Between High and LowActivity Eras

1.3

1.9

0.00.2

0.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

1971-1994 1995-2012

U.S. Hurricane Landfalls

Average U.S. Hurricane Landfal ls Per Season

Since 1995 U.S. has averaged almost two hurricane landfalls per season, an almost 50% increase compared to 1971 1994.



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Atlantic Hurricane Tracks

In a high activity era, many more hurricanes and major hurricanes form andmake landfall. In active seasons, many storms form in the MainDevelopment Region (MDR). Less active seasons have little activity in MDR.

High Activity: 24 Years1959-1970, 1995-2006

Low-Activity: 24 Years1971-1994

Main Development Region Main Development Region


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Hurricane Landfalls in Above Normal Seasons

The probability for multiple U.S. hurricane landfalls increases sharply forvery active seasons (red bars, ACE > 165% of median), even when

compared to other abovenormal seasons (blue bars). Since 1995, therehave been 8 very active seasons (There were none during 1971 1994.).

KEY:

Very Active

SeasonsOther Above Normal Seasons

0

20

40

60

80

100

One or more Two or more Three or more P e r c e n

t o f

S e a s o n s

Number of Hurricane landfalls

US Hurr icane Landfalls


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Florida Population Growth Since 1900

High Active Era

Low-Activity

Era

Low-Activity

Era

FloridaHigh-ActivityEra


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Hurricane Katrina

Eye was 30 miles across

NewOrleans


Hurricane Katrina; 2005

Biloxi

Hurricane winds extend 125 miles from center.New Orleans and Biloxi were both in eye wall at same time.

Outer edgeof Eye Wall


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Hurricanes Not Just a Coastal Event


Leading cause of death is now from inland flooding.


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Hurricane Irene: 2011 (NASA)

6. Hurricane landfalls MH Irene in Bahamas

H Irene along U.S. East CoastMH Irene east of Florida

Track of Irene


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Hurricane Irene Rainfall Totals (Inches)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

7+ Inches


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Hurricane Sandy (October 2013)


Figures from accuweather.com

Confluence of factors: Large storm Hits heavily populated coastline

At high tidemassive storm surge Produces devastating flooding


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Hurricane Preparedness Week: This week



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Summary

7. Summary Strong scientific basis for making seasonal hurricane outlooks.

An above normal, possibly very active, 2013 Atlantic hurricane season is expected.

Atlantic high activity era began in 1995. These typically last 25 40 years.

Large build up of the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast since 1970.

Hurricanes NOT just a coastal event; impact millions in many different ways (storm surge, coastal and inland flooding, winds, rain, tornadoes)

Prepare for every hurricane season regardless of the seasonal outlook.


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ARE YOU PREPARED for the 2013 Hurricane Season?

Excellent Hurricane Preparedness Information

www.ready.gov

www.nhc.noaa.gov


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QUESTIONS?

STAY TUNED for the best ways to prepare YOUR Organization for the threats of

Tropical Weather Systems

Gerry Bell, Ph. D.NOAA Climate Prediction Center


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Is YOUR Organization Prepared for the 2012 Hurricane Season?

Preparedness Steps andLessons Learned

Bob BoydPresident & CEOAgility Recovery


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1. Assess risks to your critical operational functions.

2. Backup your data & ensure remote access. 3. Advise your supply chain of actions taken.

4. Activate crisis

communication

plan

&

Test

It.

5. Resupply emergency kits.6. Establish contact with your insurance provider.

7. Consider the need for alternate locations.8. Ensure Employees are Personally Prepared.

9.**Note Steps above do not constitute a complete plan.A full Disaster Recovery Business/Continuity Strategy

is required for maximum resilience.

Key Steps To Preparedness


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What types of emergencies have occurred in the past following storms in your area?

What could happen as a result of your office location(s)?

What types of issues could result from the design or construction of your facilities?

What could result from a process, system or supply chain failure?

Are there different risks for short and long term interruptions?

Are transportation or communication system failures likely?

Are critical employees personally prepared to endure the storm?

Assessing Risks to Critical Functions


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Realize the

limitations

of

outsourced IT Management

Lack of Responsiveness Staffing/Availability Communication Gaps

Automated, Daily back ups.

Store in an off site, secure

location, outside of your region Test a full restoration regularly to

remote location or secondary servers. Document the time & bandwidth resources required

Backing Up

Data

Properly


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Talk to your key vendors and suppliers about their recovery plans.

Ask yourself has it been tested? Develop relationships with alternate

vendors. Eliminate single points of failure.

Educate your clients about the importance of preparedness.

Insure what cant be protected. Ensure your crisis scenario doesnt

have supply

chain

holes Keep partners just as informed as

your employees during recovery

Supply Chain: the external vendors and suppliers you rely on to

deliver your everyday services and products to members/customers.

Preparing Your Supply Chain


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Develop a process to make sure all stakeholders (internal and external) are aware of decisions and expectations.

Ensure redundancies independent of cell or terrestrial networks as much as possible Ensure Phone List is UPTODATE (with alternate phone #s) Utilize multiple cellphone network carriers if possible Establish phone tree Password protected web page (centralized emergency status) Social Media strategy & usage Email alert (have primary & secondary email addresses) Callin recording system Text/Data Alert system Ensure everyone familiar with system

Manage customer and key vendor communications.

Prepare a media communications plan. Test the plan regularly and in the days prior to a notice

event

Activating Your

Crisis

Communications

Plan


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Recovery plan

Important records Insurance policies Fixed asset inventory Contracts

Operating system install disks Licensing keys/Passwords Letterhead Office Supplies

Cash Flashlight Battery powered radio Batteries

Food & Water for those working the recovery

ReSupply Emergency Kits


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Make certain you are insured for all potential risks. Know the different types of coverage and limits. Consider business interruption insurance and added expense insurance. Keep photos of your building, equipment lists and policy information

stored in a safe and secure offsite location. Maintain an up to date Asset management program.

MOST losses following hurricanes are due to flooding.Most general policies do not cover flooding. Ensure you fully

understand your coverage and any exposure to risk.Dont Wait until the Storm is Imminent. Do this Today.

Business Interruption/Resumption Insurance Coverage to help in

rebuilding your company in the event of a business interruptionAdded/Extra Expense Insurance Insurance to cover unexpected added costs in the event of an interruption or unexpected event.

Reviewing Your

Insurance

Coverage


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Mobile Recovery

Delivered to

a specific

location. Ideal for small to medium sized business.

High level of flexibility. Cost effective solution.

Hot Site Recovery Permanent, regional

facility. Fixed Site. First come, first served

at time of disaster. Susceptible to same risks Oversubscription

Other Alternatives

Reciprocal agreement Internal CoLocation

Considering an Alternate Location


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1. Do they have a plan?a) Evacuation/Shelter planb) Critical Document Storagec) Emergency Alert Systemd) Emergency/Go Kit

2. How can your organization help?a) Workshopsb) Checklistsc) Emergency Kitsd) Family Involvement

Days

Preparing Employees


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Ensure Employees knowledge of your plan & their

roles. (including new hires) Ensure any Work-From-Home Strategies in place are

tested

Cross-Train Employees for critical roles

Refuel company vehicles prior to the storm makinglandfall

Understand ways to help employees:

Consider car pooling

Flex Scheduling

Offering onsite day care

Preparing Employees


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Common Failures&

Lessons Learned



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Power: Generator on site Lack of Mobility?

Maintenance Up

to

Date?

Refueling Capability / Access Backup to the backup?

Alternate Site: Reliance on Hot/Cold Sites Over Subscribed Transportation Costs/Difficulties

Shared Sites Inflexible Solution

Have access to multiple Generators throughout the regionSet up Fuel ProvidersPerform Regular maintenanceKnow a local Electrician

Have options OTHER than a permanent siteUnderstand Employee Disruption if relocatingKnow the full implications of relocation (lodging, transportation, childcare)

Better Options:

Common Failures

Mistakes made during a Crisis


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Mistakes made during a Crisis

Communications: Rely on a Single Provider Single Mobile Carrier Single Email Servers No land lines Unfamiliarity with texting

Work from Home Strategy: Will it work? Low Productivity Connectivity Issues (Power/Internet) Distractions

Unable/Unwilling to report for duty

Have a backup Communications providerAlert Notification SystemUse Phone Redirection and know how it worksHave a backup Voicemail & Email Network (Gmail)

Better Options:

Relocating Employees Having a Plan for displacing of familiesSeek locations that offer familiar surroundings & lifestyleRestore the normal routine sooner

Common Failures


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Additional Resources



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Detailed Preparedness and Recovery Checklists:

www.PrepareMyBusiness.org

FEMA Official Hurricane Website

http://www.fema.gov/hazard/hurricane/index.shtm

Ready.gov Hurricane Preparedness Information:

http://www.ready.gov/hurricanes

National Hurricane Center Tropical System News & Information:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

American Red Cross Emergency Kits, etc.http://www.redcrossstore.org/

Links &

Resources


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QUESTIONS?

Todays session has been recorded.

Links to

the

archived

recording

will

be

emailedto all registrants automatically tomorrow .

For copies of the slides presented during todays session,please visit http://agil.me/sbahurricaneprep

Bob Boyd , President & CEO Agility Recovery [email protected]

704 927 7922

sba 2013 hurricane prep

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