Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood and Drought Predictions for the Kabul River Basin with surface and groundwater modelling

(2017-2019)

PI: Dr. Jay Sagin - Nazarbayev University, Kazakhstan, jaysagin@gmail.com Co-PI: Dr. Mohammad Ibrahim Najaf - Kabul Polytechnic University, Afghanistan, drnajaf3@yahoo.com Co-PI: Dr. Muhammad Abid - COMSATS University Pakistan, drabid@ciitwah.edu.pk

The project involves the integrated surface and groundwater modelling for the transboundary Kabul River Basin (KRB) ) with Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Flood and Drought Predictions

A lack of accurate snow depth and snow water equivalent data, and a lack of understanding of snowmelt processes and soil infiltration during soil freeze and thaw events in the KRB inhibit the ability to improve the flood prediction

Thus, the scientific merit of this project is to develop the flood prediction models of KRB using NASA satellite observations that capture the magnitude, timing, and spatial distribution of water shed scale snowmelt parameters as well as antecedent soil conditions

Objectives

The US NASA, US NEXRAD, US Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technologies and training program adaptations for research

National and International Trainings

• 4th CAWA Summer School was attended on “Methods and Tools for the assessment and monitoring of Central Asian Water and Land Resources” from 5-18 June 2017 in Almaty, Kazakhstan. (~50% Females)

• “Water resource management and sustainable development strategies in arid regions” from 17-30 Sep 2017 in China

• “Remote Sensing and GIS Applications in Flood Management” during 18 - 31 July 2017 at National University of Sciences and Technology

• Second Summer School on Integrated Water Resources Management: Connecting Science and Policy 27th – 31st Aug, 2018 COMSTECH Secretariat, Islamabad Organized by LEAD and MET Pakistan

• “Sumer School on Flood Modeling” in Kirgizstan in Aug 2018

• US Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) technologies implementation and training program for future research is planned in 2019

• COMSATS University Islamabad • Dr. Muhammad Abid – CoPI – IRC • Ms. Rabbia Murtaza – CCRD • Dr. Toqeer Ahmed – CCRD • Dr Shahina Tariq & Mr. Maqbool Ahmed – MET Dept

• FOCUS Pakistan • Mr. Alamgeer Hussain (Now working in Gilgit)

• Arid Agriculture University Rawalpindi • Dr. Muhammad Hasan Ali Baig • Mr. Muhammad Amin • Mr. Hafiz Abdul Basit Zaid (MS Student) • Mr. Obaidur Rahman Janjua (MS Student) • Mr. Roman Khan (MS Student)

• University of Agriculture Faisalabad • Dr. Muhammad Rashid & Dr. Mairaj Din

• Univ. of Engineering and Technology Peshawar • Dr. Zia Ul Haq & Mr. Arshed (MS Student)

• Quaid-i-Azam University Islamabad • Ms. Zaineb Abid

• Global Change Impact Studies Center (GCISC) • Ms. Qudsia and Dr. Shahbaz

• Other Government Departments for Data Collections / provision (MET, GCISC, PCRWR etc)

Project Subgroups • Web Geo Portal, RS &GIS

• Snow-glacier melt modelling

• Hydro Meteorological modelling

• Hydrological modelling

• Flood modelling

• Underground water modelling

• Integrated water modelling

• Water Quality

• Drought Scenarios & Future Predictions

• Crop Patterns

• Climate Change Impacts

• Water and Women

Team Members, Institutions & Project Sub Groups

International Meetings and Forums

• Dr. M. Abid and Dr Jay Sagin attended “The Indus Basin: New Knowledge on Frontiers for Development and Resilience” during 3-6 July 2017 in Columbo, Srilanka

• Dr. M. Abid and Dr Jay Sagin attended “ISTC SAC Central Asian Water Forum” on 2-3 Nov, 2017 in Almaty Kazakhstan (9 countries participated from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Georgia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan. There were in total 96 Forum participants).

• Dr. M Abid, MS Rabbia Murtaza, Ms. Zaineb Abid and Ms. Saiqa Imran. Participated in workshop titled “Remediating Metal Mine Contaminated Water Bodies with a focus on Asian impacted water” in Astana during 2-5 July 2018.

a) Environmentally Sustainable Acid mine drainage remediation measures b) Water Quality Pollution in Surface Water Bodies of Pakistan c) Water Scarcity and Pollution in Central Asia

• Dr. M. Abid participated in “Regional Knowledge Forum on Drought: Earth Observations and Climate Services for Food Security and Agricultural Decision Making in South and Southeast Asia” in Nepal during 7-11 October, 2018. Organized by ICIMOD & World Bank.

Regular Meetings with Team members involved in PEER project

Project Subgroups

• Web Geo Portal, RS &GIS

• Snow-glacier melt modelling

• Hydro Meteorological modelling

• Hydrological modelling

• Flood modelling

• Underground water modelling

• Integrated water modelling

• Water Quality

• Drought Scenarios & Future Predictions

• Crop Patterns

• Climate Change Impacts

• Water and Women

• Regular Reports • Annual 2017

• Quarterly 2018 • Q2

• Q3

• Annual Progress presentations

Quarter and Annual Progress Reports and Presentations

Regularly Updated with Progress Reports, Events, News and Data

Web Page (http://www.ckrb.org)

Drought Scenarios in Kabul River Basin and future projection – Roman Khan 1. To assess meteorological and agricultural drought conditions using SPI and NDVI 2. To analyze the spatiotemporal variability of drought in the Kabul River Basin.

3.To predict future drought trend by developing projections of SPI and NDVI.

Remote-Sensing-based Vegetation Data: MOD13Q1 dataset from MODIS is used.

Climate Observations and Model Data: Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS)

• Image processing: Erdas Imagine 2014 and GIS: ArcInfo GIS

Satellite Enhanced Snowmelt Runoff Modelling of KRB – Abdul Basit Zaid

QUANTIFICATION OF GROUNDWATER STORAGE VARIATION AND STRESS AREA USING MULTI TEMPORAL GRACE DATA OF KABUL RIVER BASIN - Ubaid-ur-Rehman Janjua

• To assess the GWS in Kabul River Basin using multi temporal satellite (GRACE) data from 2002-2015

• Temporal trend quantitative analysis of GWS variation of Kabul River Basin.

• To identify the GWSV and stress zonation mapping of Kabul River Basin.

• Satellite Data Acquisition (GRACE) Monthly from 2002-2017; MASCON RL05-v2 JPL; CSR; GFZ • Processing in ArcGIS to extract Data of study area; Add Raster Data in Arc GIS; Conversion from Raster to Point • Calculate Latitude and longitude; Extract data of Study Area; Convert Extracted Data into Excel sheet • GRACE satellite due to scheduled shutdown and maintenance, the data of 21 month in total is not available and

156 months data will be used.

• Flood hydraulic modeling of Chitral River basin from Chiantar glacier source of Chitral River to Osiak Drosh village near Afghanistan boarder using unsteady flow analysis in HEC-RAS environment.

• 2015 flood discharge data of Yarkhun, Laspur, Torkhow, Garamchasma and Karimabad streams couple with 30 meter digital elevation model (DEM) with appropriate upstream and downstream boundary conditions.

• The observed and simulated flood and stage hydrograph are compared at five streams.

• The performance statistic discloses that simulated flood flow in close agreement with observed flow.

• The hydrological modeling can be used for flood forecasting in lower part of chitral river basin.

Flood Hydraulic Modelling of Chitral River Basin Alamgeer Hussain

Flood map of Chitral river

Flood Velocity Map (2015) of Karimabad & Garamchasma Rivers

Road Name Length (Km)

Chitral River 79

Laspur 12

Lotkhow 90

Torkhow 14

Yarkhun 66

FID LULC Flood Exposure Area Acres Hectares

2 Settlements 444.7 180.0

1 Agriculture Land 8150.0 3298.2

3 Barren Land 5029.1 2035.2

4 Forest 1690.8 684.3

6 Shrubs And Bushes 3892.5 1575.3

7 River Beds 13679.0 5535.7

8 Water Bodies 3.7 1.5

Total flood exposure 32889.9 13310.1

Land use Land cover flood exposure of Chitral River Basin

Flood road exposure of Chitral District

DEVELOPMENT OF STATISTICAL MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF RAINFALL EVENTS • Three different models were developed for modeling and prediction of rainfall events namely; normal

distribution, log-normal distribution, and multiple linear regression techniques. Average of these three models were also computed.

• Performance of developed models were; 47% to 72%, 80% to 89%, and 54% to 79% for normal distribution, log-normal distribution, and MLR respectively. Performance of average of these three models was 72% to 93%.

• It is found that all the models explain 47% to 89% of rainfall prediction as compared to the actual rainfall.

• According to the results log-normal distribution model were acceptably accurate and can be used for predicting the rainfall. Also average of the three models be used for more accurate prediction of rainfall events.

• All models shows better performance at east location as compared to west weather stations. And the performance of models at north weather stations was better than south weather stations.

• Comparatively the performance of new models; normal and log-normal distributions was better than well-known MLR model.

Assessment of the impact of drought on agricultural crops by Dr Rashid and Dr Mairaj - UAF

• The real time monitoring and assessment of drought need collection of rainfall and other related data

• Drought intensity depending upon rain fall deficiency using scale 26-50% (Moderately drought) and >50% (Severe drought). Area experiencing consecutively 2-3 or more months with rainfall less than 75 mm for dry land crops and 200 mm for bunded rice.

• Fall of soil moisture below 65% of the field moisture capacity or 10% decrease in soil moisture.

• Low vegetation index Type of Data Source of Data

Precipitation PMD, WAPDA-GMRC

Topography data (DEM)(Satellite image) Soil moisture data

SPARCO, USGS PMD

To estimate the change in vegetation pattern of the Kabul river basin

a) Identification of major vegetation b) Ground trouthing of major vegetation

To estimate the production of major vegetation in the Kabul river basin

a) Data collection of major vegetation b) Computation of vegetation indices for major vegetation

Land-cover change detection by RS image analysis Maqbool Ahmed

Data Collection

• MODIS Satellite Snow data procurement (2001-2015).

• DEM (high resolution) data collection. (www.opentopography.org)

• Daily discharge data is collected from the Chitral gauging for the period of 2000-2012.

• Climatological data such as temperature, and precipitation is collected from PMD.

• Chital shape file extraction/generation/collection. (This step has been accomplished)

Data Analysis

• Snow cover mapping (2001-2015): Work on HEC-HMS and SRM model is in process to learn and apply in Chitral Kabul River Basin (CKRB) in Pakistan.

• Trend assessment and analysis of snow cover over upper Chitral River sub Basin: Snow data from MODIS is downloaded for 2005-2015.

• Daily Precipitation data for Chitral river has been collected during 2013-2017 from Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

• Soil map of Pakistan including Chitral has been obtained from Survey of Pakistan

• Daily discharge data during for Chitral river 2013 to 2015 was taken from WAPDA.

• SRTM 90m DEM has been downloaded from http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org/SELECTION/inputCoord.asp Tools applied for watershed modelling

• Archydro, Arcmap 10.5 and HEC-HMS

Hydrological modelling of Chitral River using HEC-HMS by Rabbia Murtaza

Land cover classification of Chitral 2017

Watershed modelling of CRB using archydro based on DEM • The catchment of Chitral river basin was modeled in three

simulations using Arc Hydro.

• It was proved that DEM reconditioning could improve the accuracy of watershed modeling, and that lower stream threshold value could not only lead to a more detailed stream network but also improve the accuracy of catchment modeling.

International Journal Publications - 2018

• Hussain, A.; Sagin, J.; Chun, K.P. A Remote Sensing Contribution to Flood Modelling in an Inaccessible Mountainous River Basin. https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/201810.0650/v1

• Z. Sagintayev, M. Sultan, S. D. Khan, S. A. Khan, K. Mahmood, E. Yan, A. Milewski, P. Marsala. "A remote sensing contribution to hydrologic modelling in arid and inaccessible watersheds, Pishin Lora basin, Pakistan" https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/hyp.8114

• Ahmed, M., Tariq, S., Sagin, J., 2018, Climate Change Adaptation and Assessment with Remote Sensing and GIS Technologies for the Chitral-Kabul Trans-Boundary Basins, Vietnam National University Press. https://riseandfallmekong.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/inovative_water_solution_VACI2018.pdf

• Zaineb Abid, Muhammad Abid, Qudsia Zafar, Shahbaz Mahmood. Detrimental Effects of Climate Change on Women. Earth Systems and Environment

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-018-0063-9

• M. Abid, Z. Abid, J. Sagin, R. Murtaza, D. Sarbassov, M. Shabbir. Prospects of floating photovoltaic technology and its implementation in Central and South Asian Countries. Intl Jnl of Env. Sci. and Tech.

http://link-springer-com-443.webvpn.jxutcm.edu.cn/article/10.1007%2Fs13762-018-2080-5

• Water quality of Kabul River and its impacts on health, agriculture, aquatic life with Relation to Climate Change

Toqeer Ahmed, Muhammad Abid, Muhammad Zahir, Rabbia Murtaza, Jay Sagin, Maqbool Ahmad. Submitted to; Journal of Water by MDPI

• Environmental Change Detection Using Spatial Techniques: A Case Study of Lower Chitral-Kabul River Basin, Pakistan

Maqbool Ahmad, Shahina Tariq, Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Muhammad Zahir, Aatif Zeeshan

Submitted to IWA; Water Supply

• Water Harvesting techniques to alleviate Climate Change Effects in Afghanistan

Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory, Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Jun-ichiro Giorgos Tsutsumi, Tooryalay Ayoubi, Ezatullah Rabanizada. Submitted to: Journal of Climate and Development by Taylor & Francis

• Regional cooperation in climate change adaptation by the efficient use of water and energy resources through CASA-1000 project

Georgiv Petrova, Khakim Akhmedova, Khasan Karimov, Muhammad Abid, Jay Sagin, Jamal Abdul Naser Shokory, Mohammad Najaf Ibrahim. Submitted to IWA; Water Policy

International Journal Papers Submitted

• Water quality assessment of Kabul river with emphasis on catchment area in Pakistan in 7th International Conference on Environmentally Sustainable Development; August 26-28, 2017, CIIT Abbottabad, Pakistan. Presented By Mr. Muhammad Zahir, CCRD CIIT Pakistan.

• Flood Hydraulic Modelling of Chitral River Using HEC-RAS" in International Science Policy Conference on Climate Change (SP3C 2017) during 18-20 December 2017 in SP3C. Presentation by Mr. Alamgeer of FOCUS.

• Hydro Meteorological Hazard Mapping and Modeling of Chitral-Kabul River Basin’s in 6th Vietnam International Water Week (VACI2018) on 4-8 March, 2018 in Hanoi, Vietnam by Mr. Alamgeer Hussain

• Sedimentation in Reservoirs and Channels along KRB in 5th International conference “Earth Sciences Pakistan 2018” at Baragali, Pakistan. Muhammad Abid and Zaineb Abid

• Threats to Dams and Reservoirs by Sediment Issues in KRB and IRB in Pakistan’s Water Security Policy: Famine Threat and Future Challenges. 23rd April 2018. Muhammad Abid, Zaineb Abid

• Relationship of Women and Climate Change for Sustainable Development in International Science Policy Conference on Climate Change (SP3C), 18-20 Dec 2017, Islamabad, Pakistan. Poster presented by Ms Zaineb Abid, Department of Environmental Sciences, QAU, Islamabad Pakistan.

• Gender based violence. Submitted a Case study to IUCN by Rabbia Murtaza, Muhammad Abid and Zaineb Abid

Conference papers and posters presented

Approved

• GCRF CDT – by the UK Durham University GCRF CDT titled “Low cost passive water treatment for impacted households across the Afghanistan and Pakistan”

In Progress

• Disaster Monitoring & Management Utilizing GNSS in Pakistan and CA Countries is under progress jointly prepared by UET Peshawar and COMSATS University to be submitted to next PEER USAID funding call

• Prospects of floating photovoltaic technology and its implementation in Central and South Asian Countries is under progress to be submitted jointly to International Funding call

• The US NASA, US NEXRAD, US Global Satellite Navigation Systems (GNSS): Currently the hydro meteorological Baron Radar (US NEXRAD developer) and GNSS research and training facility was established on our research partner Nazarbayev University campus, Kazakhstan; we work on expansion of the similar facilities and we are looking for support from NASA to establish such facilities in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Future Projects