sa’s crime profile & crime hub n ovember 2011 camprosa conference: sinfonia johan b urger
DESCRIPTION
SA’s crime profile & CRIME HUB N ovember 2011 CAMPROSA Conference: Sinfonia Johan B urger C rime & Justice P rogramme INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES. Presentation Outline. Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats) Some business indicators of crime trends - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
SA’S CRIME PROFILE & CRIME HUBNovember 2011
CAMPROSA Conference: Sinfonia
Johan Burger
Crime & Justice Programme
INSTITUTE FOR SECURITY STUDIES
• Perceptions of credibility (police crime stats)
• Some business indicators of crime trends
• Policing operations & arrests
• SA’s crime profile:
o Overall national trends
o Curious provincial trends
• Worrying new trend (kidnapping)
• Concluding remarks
Presentation Outline
SAPS and the crime stats …
Credibility of police crime statistics ?
International Business Report: Victim survey in South Africa (2007 – 2011)
%
Retail Crimes (Armed Robberies & Burglaries): 2009 & 2010
2009 2010 % decrease
Armed Robberies(Incidents)
282 159 - 43,6%
Burglaries(Incidents)
426 311 - 27%
Armed Robberies(Financial loss)
R19,36m R10,03m - 48%
Burglary(Financial loss)
R19,97m R10,07 - 49%
Consumer Goods Risk Initiative (CGRI)
House robbery Business robbery
Vehicle hijacking
--------------------------------------
Vehicle theft
Business burglary
House burglary
4 – 21% (average decr)
19 – 28% (average decr)
19 – 31% (average decr)
--------------------------------------
8 – 17% (average decr)
5 – 9% (average decr)
4 – 12% (average decr)
South African Insurance Association (SAIA)(Claims for 2010/11 compared to 2010/09)
SAPS: 20 most serious crimes recorded1994/95 – 2010/11
94\95
95\96
96\97
97\98
98\99
99\00
00\01
01\02
02\03
03\04
'04\05
05\06
06\07
07\08
08\09
09\10
10\11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
66.9 67.962.8
59.959.8
52.5 49.8
47.8
47.4
42.7
40.3 39.5 40.5 38.6 37.334.1
31.9
69.4 68.1 70.8 68.3 70.165.5
64.4
70.2
78.9
64.8
52.6
43.9 42.5 39.337.6
35.331
Murder Att Murder
Murder & attempted murder trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)
Relationships & motives relating to murder
Perpetrators known to victims
Perpetrators as relatives, friends, etc
Relatives as perpetrators
80% 60% 20%
Relationships
Motives/ConditionsSocial behaviour(E.g. domestic conflict such as arguments, jealousy, alcohol & drug abuse, etc)
Criminalbehaviour (E.g. resulting from other crime such as robbery, etc)
Group behaviour(E.g. gang & taxi violence, vigilantism, etc)
Other(E.g. retaliation, self-defence, police actions, etc)
65% 16% 7% 12%
Att murder - 60% Rape - 75% Assault - 90%
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01\02
02\03
03\04
04\05
05\06
06\07
07\08
08\09
09\10
10\11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
220
196
164
177
220 230
260
262
279 288272
255
267
247
249
230
203
Aggravated robbery trend1994/95 – 2010/11 (rates per 100 000)
10627
16889
14667
39291999
57951
Car hijacking
House robbery
Bus robbery
Bank robbery
CIT
Truck hijacking
Street robbery
2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010\110
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
5498
3677
3320
4387
6689
9862
13920
1453414667
1469113793
12434 1282513599
14201
14915
13902
10627
9063 93519391
10173
12761
14481
18438 18786
16889
Business robberies Car hijackings House robberies
Trio crimes2002/03 – 2010/11
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000\01
2001\02
2002\03
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600 561
463
493
450
469
356
127
54 5859
129 144
10293
39
359
236 223 226
196
238
374
192
220
383
467
395 386 358
291
Bank robbery CIT
Bank & Cash-In-Transit robberiesIncidents from 1996/97 – 2010/11
04\05 05\06 06\07 07\08 08\09 09\10 10\110
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
8 10
139
431
387
247
399
ATM attacks/bombings2004/05 – 2010/11
+61,
5%
Scene at an ATM bombing
2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010\110
100
200
300
400
500
600
700645.2
592.8559.9
526.8497.1 506.5 520.2
495.3
139.3120.3 116 123.3 131.7 143.8 145.5 138.2
Res Burglary Bus Burglary
Residential & non-residential burglary(Rates per 100 000)
03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/110
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
55,869 53,931 54,214
61,69065,286
77,474
84,842
88,388
71,88866,525 64,491 65,489 66,992
80,773
88,634
78,383
Commercial Crime Shoplifting
Commercial crime & shoplifting
Car Hijackings
House Robberies
Business Robberies2003/04 – 2009/10
Att Murder
Murder
1994/95 – 2009/10
1994/95 – 2009/10
2003/04 – 2010/11
Police numbers
Comparing the trends
22.725.4
29.332.5
36.4
41.5
47.6
52.6
2003/04 – 2010/11
Police budget (SA Rand in billions)
(+49,2%)
(+131,7%)
134857
149060
156060
163060173000
182754190199
193892
Police numbers
2003/04 – 2010/11
House Robberies
Business Robberies
Car Hijackings
Att Murder
Murder
Assault GBH
Assault Common
1994/95 – 2010/11
1994/95 – 2010/11
2003/04 -2010/11
(+44%)
Actions 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 % inc
Roadblocks 35 003 42 601 52 233 65 381 25%
Cordon & search 23 590 20 490 38 129 61 216 60%
Stop & search 842 580 1 006 186 1 542 031 2 063 923 33%
Vehicle patrols 1 065 196 1 354 304 1 775 170 3 851 034 117%
Persons searched 9 794 533 11 667 505 15 232 422 19 754 241 29%
Vehicles searched 3 542 802 4 121 994 2 666 181 7 712 536 189%
Arrests 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 %
Contact crimes 173 838 217 047 242 902 283 002 16%
Aggravated robbery 24 952 22 051 20 934 25 077 20%
Property & other serious crime
- 176 346 210 548 208 041 - 1%
Crimes dep. on police action 90 891 102 906 130 257 149 138 14%
Policing operations & arrests
Crime type Detection rate (%)
% cases court ready
Conviction rate (%)
Contact crimes (crimes against the person)
56,99% 32,24% (new baseline)
23,78%
Property-related crimes 15,84% 31,06% (new baseline)
24,50%
Crimes dependent on police action 98,53% 28,41% (new baseline)
37,13%
Murder 26,57% 28,95% (new baseline)
13,55%
Aggravated robbery 14,77% 34,82% (new baseline)
11,40%
House robbery 18,99% - 3,59%
Business robbery 18,83% - 12,69%
Detection & conviction rates (selected crimes)
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Gauteng W Cape National
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Gauteng W Cape National
Average national & provincial crime ratios
Overall crime ratios (29 crimes) Crimes detected by police action (3 crimes)
• Illegal possession of firearms• Drug related crimes• Driving under the influence
343%
2003/2004 2004/2005 2005/2006 2006/2007 2007/2008 2008/2009 2009/2010 2010/20110.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
48.8
41.6 38.8 40.8 38.937.9
32.729.1
63.158.7 59.2 60.7
58.6
44.642.4 44.2
42.7 40.339.6 40.5
38.6 37.3 34.1 31.9
Gauteng Western Cape RSA
Cri
me
Ra
tio
pe
r 1
00
,00
0 p
op
ula
tio
nNational & provincial ratios: murder2003/04 – 2010/11
2003\04 2004\05 2005\06 2006\07 2007\08 2008\09 2009\10 2010\110
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 84.8
70.5
59.658.3
54.349.1
45.6
36.7
76.7
54.5
39.9 43.138.1
33.6 31.9
41.4
64.8
52.6 43.8 42.539.3
37.6 35.3
31
Gauteng W Cape National
National & provincial ratios: attempted murder 2003/04 – 2010/11
26%
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Gauteng W Cape National
2003\04
2004\05
2005\06
2006\07
2007\08
2008\09
2009\10
2010\11
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Gauteng W Cape National
House robbery Business robbery
National and provincial trends (Actual figures)
0
1 00
0 2
000
3 00
0 4
000
3 004 2 618
2 320 2 345 2 323 2 535
2 889
3 604
Eastern Cape_x000d_ Free State_x000d_ Gauteng_x000d_KwaZulu-Natal_x000d_ Limpopo_x000d_ Mpumalanga_x000d_North West_x000d_ Northern Cape_x000d_ Western Cape_x000d_RSA_x000d_
Nu
mb
er
of
rep
ort
ed
cri
me
sNational & Prov crimes: Kidnapping‘The unlawful intentional deprivation of a person of his freedom of movement or, if such a person is a child, the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent of control over the child’ (Cf ‘abduction’)
55%
The Crime and Justice Hub(Institute for Security Studies)
• The Home Page of the Hub• Part of the front page – some broad categories of topics covered• For the maps, we advise to use Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome
search engines, but possible with Explorer 9 (just a bit more patience required!)
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct irrespective of population figures in a police station area
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
This map shows the 2009/2010 commercial crime statistics per police precinct per capita
For Sandton, there is an increase in commercial crime as per the graph generated on the hub
The Crime and Justice Hub (Contd.)(Institute for Security Studies)
