sa’s 2 speed demographic it’s not just about ageing! jim myhill february 2015 [email protected]
TRANSCRIPT
SA’s Ageing Population
National population and dwelling growth
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 -
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000 Building Approvals and Population Growth, 1997-2014 Building Approvals
Population Growth
Median age, states, 2011
New South Wales Victoria ACT Tasmania South Australia Northern Territory Western Australia Queensland25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
Median Age
Percentage aged 65+
New South Wales Victoria ACT Tasmania South Australia Northern Territory Western Australia Queensland0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Percentage aged 65+
Comparative growth among the states
NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
State % growth 2014 State % growth 2014
Absolute Growth
NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
State absolute growth 2014 State absolute growth 2014
But let’s take a closer look at the trends
Population by five year age group,South Australia, 1976
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-34
35-3940-44
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1976
Age group
Pers
ons
Population by five year age group,South Australia, 1976-1986
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-34
35-3940-44
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
19761986
Age group
Pers
ons
Population by five year age group,South Australia, 1976-1996
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-34
35-3940-44
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
197619861996
Age group
Pers
ons
Population by five year age group,South Australia, 1976-2006
Source: ABS, Australian Historical Population Statistics, 2008
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-34
35-3940-44
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1976198619962006
Age group
Pers
ons
Population by five year age group,South Australia, 1976-2011
Source: 2006 and 2011 Censuses of Population and Housing
0-4 5-910-14
15-1920-24
25-2930-34
35-3940-44
45-4950-54
55-5960-64
65-6970-74
75-7980-84
85+0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
1976
1986
1996
2006
2011
Age group
Pers
ons
SA Age profile 2011
SA Ageing profile 2006-2011
The mini baby-boom cause #1 - fertility
National fertility rate, 1930 to 2010
Source: ABS, Births, Australia, 2010 (3301.0) – annotations by .id
National fertility rate by age of mother, 1975-2013
15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 490
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1801975 2013
Mothers age
Birt
h ra
te p
er 1
,000
The mini baby boom cause #2 - Immigration
Historical migration - national
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
20140
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
Annual net migration
Historical overseas migration, SA
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000 Chart Title
Year
Pers
ons
Arriving migrants, SA, 2006-2011
5-9 years
10-14 years
15-19 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-34 years
35-39 years
40-44 years
45-49 years
50-54 years
55-59 years
60-64 years
65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
80-84 years
85-89 years
90-94 years
95-99 years
100 years and over
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Age of arriving migrants
Migration history SA, 1960-2011
Age of arriving migrants
Where are the migrants coming from?
Birthplace, SA
Birthplace change, SA 2006-2011
SA “Young People Drain”
Historical interstate migration, SA
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20122014
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Year
Pers
ons
Net interstate migration, SA, 2006-2011
5-9 years
10-14 years
15-19 years
20-24 years
25-29 years
30-34 years
35-39 years
40-44 years
45-49 years
50-54 years
55-59 years
60-64 years
65-69 years
70-74 years
75-79 years
80-84 years
85-89 years
90-94 years
95-99 years
100 years and over
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
Some local examples
Encounter Bay 2 - 2011
Andrews Farm 2011
Andrews Farm 2006 to 2011
Andrews Farm 2006 to 2011
Littlehampton and District
3 Growth Markets - Australia
Population growth by age, Australia, 2011-2031
Population growth by age, Mt Barker, 2011-2036
Further reading
.id blog
http://blog.id.com.au
E-book - 3 Growth Markets in Australia
http://home.id.com.au/public-resources/demographic-resource-centre
Demographic Resources
http://content.id.com.au/community-profile-australian-demographic-information-profile.id