santa clara county real estate market overview dynamics · q3 2016 q4 2016 q1 2017 q2 2017 q3 2017...
TRANSCRIPT
Santa Clara County
Real Estate Market Overview Dynamics
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
All numbers should be considered approximate.
Santa Clara County Home Price AppreciationMedian House Sales Prices, 1990 – Present, by Month
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
$1,300,000
$1,400,000
Ja
n-9
0
Sep
-90
Ma
y-9
1
Ja
n-9
2
Sep
-92
Ma
y-9
3
Ja
n-9
4
Sep
-94
Ma
y-9
5
Ja
n-9
6
Sep
-96
Ma
y-9
7
Ja
n-9
8
Sep
-98
Ma
y-9
9
Ja
n-0
0
Sep
-00
Ma
y-0
1
Ja
n-0
2
Sep
-02
Ma
y-0
3
Ja
n-0
4
Sep
-04
Ma
y-0
5
Ja
n-0
6
Sep
-06
Ma
y-0
7
Ja
n-0
8
Sep
-08
Ma
y-0
9
Ja
n-1
0
Sep
-10
Ma
y-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Sep
-12
Ma
y-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Sep
-14
Ma
y-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Sep
-16
Ma
y-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Sep
-18
Sales reported to MLS by 12/31/18
Monthly median sales prices for “existing” houses since 1990, per CA Association of Realtors.
Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
Median sales prices for existing houses
per MLS & CA Association of Realtors.
Early 90’s
recession after
80’s boom
Mid-90’s recovery
to dotcom boom
Market crash
& recession
2012 – 2018
recovery
Decline in loan
standards
2007
peak
Santa Clara County Home Price AppreciationAnnual Median House Sales Prices since 1990
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
$1,000,000
$1,100,000
$1,200,000
$1,300,000
Median sales figures can be affected by other market factors besides changes in fair market value.
Per MLS & CA Association of Realtors for existing single family dwellings. Analysis may contain
errors and subject to revision.
Subprime bubble
Early 90’s recession, after 80’s boom
Mid-90’s recovery to dotcom boom
Market crash & recession
2013 – 2018recovery
Collapse in loan standards
9.0%
0.3%
7.3%
15.5%15.3%
9.1%
31.7%
0.2%
3.8%
0.9%
14.0%
17.2%
5.2%
8.3%
-20.2% -20.7%
12.3%
-4.2%
13.2%
20.9%
10.3%10.6%
7.3%
15.6%
13.1%
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
35.0%
1994
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
2015
201
6
201
7
201
8
Year-over-Year Percentage Change in Annual Median Sales Price
↑ Mid-90’s recovery ↑to peak of dotcom bubble
For Santa Clara County, per CA Association of Realtors for “existing single family dwellings.” Data from
sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers are approximate.
2008 financial
markets crash
▼
↑ Recovery ↑high-tech boom
Santa Clara Median House Price Changes Since 1994
Annual % Change, Comparing Annual Median Sales Price to Previous Year
Market ↑ Recession ↑
↑ Financing ↑bubble
2010 Homebuyer
tax credit
▼
22,085
17,115
13,041
12,130
16,216
15,708 15,889
16,920
16,069
15,121 15,598
14,547
15,329
14,110
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
21,000
22,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed reliable,
but may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Annual Home Sales Volumes
Santa Clara County Market Trends since 2005 MLS residential sales data.
2012 - 2018 market recovery
2006 – 2011 market decline, crash
and recession
Sales volume is determined not only by the strength of buyer
demand, but by the inventory of listings available to purchase.
73
225
245
260
281
282
285
329
343
454
459
510
551
579
586
623
649
672
Los Altos Hills
Mountain View
Cupertino
Saratoga
Los Altos
Campbell
Milpitas
Alamaden Vly, S.J.
Palo Alto
Morgan Hill
Los Gatos/M.S.
Evergreen, S.J.
Gilroy
Willow Glen, S.J.
Santa Clara
Sunnyvale
Blossom Vly, S.J.
Cambrian, S.J.
San Jose in its entirety had 5315 house sales during the 12 month period. This chart breaks out selected
S.J. neighborhoods. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Santa Clara County Real Estate Market
12 Months Unit House Sales & Median Sales Prices As reported to MLS
through 11/30/18
Median HOUSE Sales Prices & Avg. $/S.F.Los Altos Hills $4,500,000 $1231/s.f.
Los Altos $3,400,000 $1478/s.f.
Palo Alto $3,215,000 $1776/s.f.
Saratoga $2,805,000 $1094/s.f.
Cupertino $2,371,000 $1244/s.f.
Mountain View $2,350,000 $1412/s.f.
Los Gatos, M.S. $1,970,000 $ 877/s.f.
Sunnyvale $1,900,000 $1201/s.f.
Almaden Vly $1,640,000 $ 715/s.f.
Campbell $1,513,500 $ 918/s.f.
Willow Glen $1,490,000 $ 844/s.f.
Santa Clara $1,480,000 $1015/s.f.
Cambrian $1,310,000 $ 863/s.f.
Evergreen $1,250,000 $ 621/s.f.
Milpitas $1,200,000 $ 746/s.f.
Morgan Hill $1,050,000 $ 464/s.f.
South San Jose $ 825,000 $ 590/s.f.
Gilroy $ 785,000 $ 400/s.f.
Median house sizes range from 1400 to 3700 s.f. ↑ Number of house ↑sales reported to MLS
Santa Clara County Home Value TrendsMedian Dollar per Square Foot Values, 1996 – Present
$-
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
19
96-0
4
19
96-0
9
19
97-0
2
19
97-0
7
19
97-1
2
19
98-0
5
19
98-1
0
19
99-0
3
19
99-0
8
20
00-0
1
20
00-0
6
20
00-1
1
20
01-0
4
20
01-0
9
20
02-0
2
20
02-0
7
20
02-1
2
20
03-0
5
20
03-1
0
20
04-0
3
20
04-0
8
20
05-0
1
20
05-0
6
20
05-1
1
20
06-0
4
20
06-0
9
20
07-0
2
20
07-0
7
20
07-1
2
20
08-0
5
20
08-1
0
20
09-0
3
20
09-0
8
20
10-0
1
20
10-0
6
20
10-1
1
20
11-0
4
20
11-0
9
20
12-0
2
20
12-0
7
20
12-1
2
20
13-0
5
20
13-1
0
20
14-0
3
20
14-0
8
20
15-0
1
20
15-0
6
20
15-1
1
20
16-0
4
20
16-0
9
20
17-0
2
20
17-0
7
20
17-1
2
20
18-0
5
20
18-1
0
Mid-90’s recovery
to dotcom boom
Market crash
& recession
2012 – 2018
recovery
Decline in loan
standards
Previous
market peak
Median values disguise a wide range ofvalues in the underlying sales. Countiesinclude cities and neighborhoods ofwidely varying values.
Updated 12/2018. For house, condo and co-op sales. Data from Zillow Research:https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ . Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for
more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be
considered approximate.
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI): A
smoothed, seasonally adjusted measureof median estimated home values.
$1
,25
0,0
00
$1
,30
0,0
00
$1
,40
0,0
00
$1
,37
2,0
00
$1
,27
0,0
00
$1
,16
1,0
00
$1
,18
2,8
88
$1
,07
0,0
00
$1
,00
0,0
00
$1
,00
0,0
00
$1
,08
0,0
00
$9
70
,00
0
$9
36
,00
0
$9
60
,00
0
$9
80
,00
0
$800,000
$850,000
$900,000
$950,000
$1,000,000
$1,050,000
$1,100,000
$1,150,000
$1,200,000
$1,250,000
$1,300,000
$1,350,000
$1,400,000
$1,450,000
Q4 2
018
Q3 2
018
Q2 2
018
Q1 2
018
Q4 2
017
Q3 2
017
Q2 2
017
Q1 2
017
Q4 2
016
Q3 2
016
Q2 2
016
Q1 2
016
Q4 2
015
Q3 2
015
Q2 2
015
Sales reported by 1/2/19. Median sales price is that price at which half the sales occurred
for more and half for less. It is a very general statistic that can be affected by other
factors besides changes in fair market value. All numbers are approximate and subject
to revision.
Santa Clara County House Price AppreciationMedian House Sales Prices, 2015 – Present, by Quarter As reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Seasonal fluctuations are common. Longer-term
trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.
98.9%
112.0%
118.4%
128.3%
127.0%
116.1%
109.5%110.3%
106.8%
104.2%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Q4 2018Q3 2018Q2 2018Q1 2018Q4 2017Q3 2017Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016Q3 2016
Sales reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Percentages reflect appreciation rates
in median house sales price,
comparing the quarter delineated with
the same quarter in the previous year:
127% signifies 27% year-over-year
appreciation in median sales price.
99% = 1% y-o-y decline
Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates by Quarter
Santa Clara County, % Changes in Median House Sales Prices
Median sales prices are prone to fluctuation, sometimes without great meaningfulness as to changes in fair
market value. Longer term trends are always more important than short-term changes. Data from sources
deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
↑ Year-over-Year Appreciation ↑
Santa Clara County House Sales
12 Months Sales by Bedroom Count [as of 12/28/18]
105
165129
7636
15 12 11 22 8
330
871
810 808
440
261
177
111 126 122
4
123
605
684
596
460
276
204 191
263287
3529
115154 169
144112
81 79
129
241
86
9
$500k -$749k
$750K -$999K
$1m -$1.249m
$1.25m -$1.49m
$1.5m -$1.749m
$1.75m -$1.99m
$2m -$2.249m
$2.25m -$2.49m
$2.5m -$2.99m
$3m -$4.99m
$5m -$9.99m+
$10m+
2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms 4 Bedrooms 5+ Bedrooms
House sales reported to
MLS, per Broker Metrics.
Not all sales are reported to MLS. This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from
sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and is subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Santa Clara house sales by bedroom
count and price segment.
Behind the single median house sales
price for Santa Clara is an enormous
range of thousands of individual sales.
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
105%
106%
107%
108%
109%
110%
111%
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oc
t-1
6
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-
17
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Spring 2017
Spring 2018
Autumn 2017
▲ Over Asking Price▲
Autumn 2018
These analyses were performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed
reliable, but they may contain errors and are subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
MLS sales of houses, condos,
townhouses, duets, per Broker Metrics.
Average Sales Price to Original List Price (SP-OP) Percentage
Santa Clara County Market: Overbidding of Asking Prices
111% signifies an average sales price 11% over original
asking price. 96% = 4% below asking price.
Autumn 2016
Silicon Valley Home Value TrendsMedian Dollar per Square Foot Values, 1996 – Present
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
19
96-0
4
19
96-0
9
19
97-0
2
19
97-0
7
19
97-1
2
19
98-0
5
19
98-1
0
19
99-0
3
19
99-0
8
20
00-0
1
20
00-0
6
20
00-1
1
20
01-0
4
20
01-0
9
20
02-0
2
20
02-0
7
20
02-1
2
20
03-0
5
20
03-1
0
20
04-0
3
20
04-0
8
20
05-0
1
20
05-0
6
20
05-1
1
20
06-0
4
20
06-0
9
20
07-0
2
20
07-0
7
20
07-1
2
20
08-0
5
20
08-1
0
20
09-0
3
20
09-0
8
20
10-0
1
20
10-0
6
20
10-1
1
20
11-0
4
20
11-0
9
20
12-0
2
20
12-0
7
20
12-1
2
20
13-0
5
20
13-1
0
20
14-0
3
20
14-0
8
20
15-0
1
20
15-0
6
20
15-1
1
20
16-0
4
20
16-0
9
20
17-0
2
20
17-0
7
20
17-1
2
20
18-0
5
20
18-1
0
Atherton
Palo Alto
Los Altos
Menlo Park
Hillsborough
Burlingame
Saratoga
Mid-90’s recovery
to dotcom boom
Market crash
& recession
2012 – 2018
recovery
Decline in loan
standards
Previous
market peak
Cities include neighborhoods of widelyvarying values. Home size also plays a role:All things being equal, a smaller home willsell for a higher dollar per square foot value.
Updated 12/2018. For house, condo and co-op sales. Data from Zillow Research:https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ . Median value is that value at which half the sales occurred for
more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be
considered approximate.
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI): A
smoothed, seasonally adjusted measureof median estimated home values.
Selected High Price Cities
in Santa Clara & San Mateo Counties
Santa Clara COUNTY Condo Price AppreciationMedian CONDO Sales Prices, 1996 – Present
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
$800,000
$900,000
19
96-0
4
19
96-0
9
19
97-0
2
19
97-0
7
19
97-1
2
19
98-0
5
19
98-1
0
19
99-0
3
19
99-0
8
20
00-0
1
20
00-0
6
20
00-1
1
20
01-0
4
20
01-0
9
20
02-0
2
20
02-0
7
20
02-1
2
20
03-0
5
20
03-1
0
20
04-0
3
20
04-0
8
20
05-0
1
20
05-0
6
20
05-1
1
20
06-0
4
20
06-0
9
20
07-0
2
20
07-0
7
20
07-1
2
20
08-0
5
20
08-1
0
20
09-0
3
20
09-0
8
20
10-0
1
20
10-0
6
20
10-1
1
20
11-0
4
20
11-0
9
20
12-0
2
20
12-0
7
20
12-1
2
20
13-0
5
20
13-1
0
20
14-0
3
20
14-0
8
20
15-0
1
20
15-0
6
20
15-1
1
20
16-0
4
20
16-0
9
20
17-0
2
20
17-0
7
20
17-1
2
20
18-0
5
20
18-1
0
Mid-90’s recovery
to dotcom boom
Market crash
& recession2012 – 2018
recovery
Decline in loan
standards
Previous
market peak
Median values disguise a wide range ofvalues in the overall market. Countiesinclude markets of widely varying values.
Data from Zillow Research: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/ . Median sales price is that price at
which half the sales occurred for more and half for less. Analysis may contain errors and subject to
revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
Estimates from Zillow Research
Santa Clara Home Sales Breakdown12 Months Sales by Property Type & Bedroom Count
649
4407
4128
1456
471
2097
1404 2-BR Houses - $1,155,500
3-BR Houses - $1,350,000
4-BR Houses - $1,646,000
5+ BR Houses - $2,372,000
1-BR Condos - $599,700
2-BR Condos - $838,000
3-BR Condos - $1,078,000
3-BR House Sales
Avg. 1511 sq.ft.
3-BR Condos Sales
Avg. 1561 sq.ft.
4-BR House Sales
Avg. 2169 sq.ft.
2-BR Condo Sales
Avg. 1146 sq.ft.
1-BR Condo Sales
Avg. 788 sq.ft.
Average Sales Prices
Does not include sales unreported to MLS. Based upon data sources deemed reliable, but
may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
5+ BR House Sales
Avg. 3197 sq.ft.
2-BR House Sales
Avg. 1124 sq.ft.
Sales reported to MLS 8/1/17 – 7/31/18
Silicon Valley Home Sales Breakdown2018 YTD Sales by Price, San Mateo & Santa Clara
4004
4661
2248
1672
717195
Under $1,000,000
$1m - $1,499,999
$1.5m - $1,999,999
$2m - $2,999,999
$3m - $4,999,999
$5,000,000+
Sales under $1,000,000 = 30%
of sales. 2066 of the 4004
were condo sales. 2093 of the
4004 were in San Jose.
Sales $1 million to $1,499,999
= 34.5% of total sales. 1120 of
the 4661 were condo sales.
Home sales of $3 million+ = 7% of total sales.
Sales reported to MLS: Not all sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed
reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
House and condo sales
reported to MLS by 8/24/18
Sales $1.5 million to $1.99m
= 16.5% of sales.
Sales $2 million to $2.99m
= 12% of total sales.
The 3551 condo sales in the
period made up 26% of total
home sales.
Sales by Price Segment
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
Ma
r-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
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8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
# New Listings Coming on Market
# Listings Accepting Offers
Mid-Winter Mid-Winter Mid-Winter
Residential activity reported to MLS. December 2018 numbers are estimates. Data from
sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to
be considered approximate.
Activity reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
New Listings & Listings Accepting Offers
Santa Clara County Market Seasonality
Spring 2017
Spring 2018
Summer-Autumn 2017
The market is fiercely seasonal, activity typically peaking in spring and plunging in mid-winter.
Summer-Autumn 2018
Average Days on Market by Price Segment by Quarter
Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3 2
017
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
$3 Million+
$2m -
$2,999,999
$1m -
$1,999,999
Under $1Million
For sold properties, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Santa Clara and San Mateo
residential market activity,
per Broker Metrics.
The lower the average days on market, thefaster buyers are snapping up new listings.
Average days on market typically ebb andflow by season with Q2 usually being theperiod of highest demand. | Extremely hot market |
Avg. Sales Price to Original List Price % by Price Segment
Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
112%
114%
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2 2
017
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
Under $1
Million
$1m -$1,999,999
$2m -
$2,999,999
$3 Million+
Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Santa Clara and San Mateo
residential market activity,
per Broker Metrics.
The greater the competition between buyers for new listings coming onmarket the higher the Sales Price to Original List Price Percentage.
The higher the percentage, the hotter the market. Anyreading over 100% signifies an average sales price overasking price. 110% = 10% overbidding.
| Extremely hot market |
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers by Price Segment
Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Dynamics, 2015 to Present
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q4
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q1 2
018
Q4
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q4
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q4
20
15
Q3
20
15
Under $1
Million
$1m -
$1,999,999
$2m -
$2,999,999
$3 Million+
Activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources
deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
Santa Clara and San Mateo
residential market activity,
per Broker Metrics.
The higher the percentage of listings accepting offers (going into contract),the stronger the buyer demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale.Generally speaking, the lower the price segment, the higher the percentage.
Over 50% and 60% are very high quarterlypercentages by historical standards.
| Extremely hot market |
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Jan
-14
Fe
b-1
4M
ar-
14
Ap
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
n-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Au
g-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Oc
t-1
4
No
v-1
4
Dec
-14
Jan
-15
Fe
b-1
5M
ar-
15
Ap
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
n-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Au
g-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Oc
t-1
5
No
v-1
5
Dec
-15
Jan
-16
Fe
b-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ap
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
n-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oc
t-1
6
No
v-1
6
Dec
-16
Jan
-17
Fe
b-1
7M
ar-
17
Ap
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
Dec
-17
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8M
ar-
18
Ap
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
Dec
-18
May
April
December
May
Sept.
2016
April
2017
Oct.
2017
May
2018 Sept.
2018
December December
Data per Realtor.com Research Data at https://www.realtor.com/research/data Data
from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All
numbers should be considered approximate.
Houses, condos and townhomes.
Santa Clara County Market Seasonality
New Home Listings Coming on Market since 2014
DecemberDecember
0
100
200
300
400
500
Oct-
16
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-17
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Sep
-17
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Feb
-18
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
December
2016
December
2017
December
2018
December number estimated from data available on 1/2/19. Data from sources
deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should
be considered approximate.
Houses, condos, duets, duplexes as
listed in MLS per Broker Metrics.
Santa Clara Market Dynamics
Listings Expired or Withdrawn (No Sale)
Listings typically expire or are withdrawn without selling due to
being perceived as overpriced by buyers, and/or to avoid the
slower markets of mid-late summer and mid-winter.
December is typically the month with the highest number of
these listings. Many re-list in the new year, often at lower prices.
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
3,250
3,500
3,750
4,000
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Active Listings on Market – on Average Day of Month
Santa Clara County Market Supply & Seasonality, by Month since 2012
Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
for houses, condos and townhouses. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may
contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers to be considered approximate.
July-2016
Mid-Winter
Mid-WinterMid-WinterMid-Winter
Mid-Winter
September
2015
August
2014
August
2013
May 2017
Mid-Winter
This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given
day of the specified month. The number of active listings is affected by 2 major dynamics:
1) How many new listings come on market, and 2) how quickly buyers purchase them.
Oct. 2018
May 2012
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1050
1150
1250
1350
1450
1550
1650
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oc
t-1
6
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Feb
-17
Ma
r-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Sep
-18
Oct-
18
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
Mid-Winter Mid-Winter
Residential activity reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may
contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
As reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Number of Listings Accepting Offers
Santa Clara County Market Seasonality by Month
Spring 2017
Summer 2016
Autumn 2017
Spring 2018
Buyer demand typically peaks in spring, drops to plateau in summer-early
autumn, and then plunges going into the mid-winter holidays.
Autumn2016 Autumn
2018
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Price Reductions on Active Listings by Month
Santa Clara County Market Seasonality, by Month since 2012
Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
All numbers to be considered approximate.
August
2016
May
2017
Price reductions typically climb after the end of the spring selling season,
increasing through the end of summer or early autumn, as sellers try to sell their
homes prior to the market slowdowns of mid-summer and mid-winter.
August
2014
August
2013
October
2015
Oct.
2018
June
2012
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
Price Reductions on Active Listings by Quarter
Santa Clara County Market Seasonality, by Month since 2014
Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
All numbers to be considered approximate.
Price reductions typically climb after the end of the spring selling season,
increasing through the end of summer or early autumn, as sellers try to sell their
homes prior to the market slowdowns of mid-summer and mid-winter.
Q4
2018
Q4
2017
Q4
2016Q4
2015
Q4
2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Ma
y-1
2
Ju
l-1
2
Sep
-12
No
v-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
r-13
Ma
y-1
3
Ju
l-1
3
Sep
-13
No
v-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
r-14
Ma
y-1
4
Ju
l-1
4
Sep
-14
No
v-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
r-15
Ma
y-1
5
Ju
l-1
5
Sep
-15
No
v-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
r-16
Ma
y-1
6
Ju
l-1
6
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Median Days on Market
Santa Clara County Market Demand & Seasonality since 2012
Per Realtor.com Real Estate Data Library: https://www.realtor.com/research/data/
Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision.
All numbers to be considered approximate.
Spring
Mid-Winter
Mid-Winter Mid-WinterMid-Winter
Spring
SpringSpringSpring 2017
Median days on market in this analysis is defined as the time between the initial listing
of a property and either its closing date or the date it is taken off the market.
Spring 2018
Mid-Winter
2012
Mid-Winter
Mid-Winter
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Ja
n 2
00
8
Ap
r 200
8
Ju
l 200
8
Oct
20
08
Ja
n 2
00
9
Ap
r 200
9
Ju
l 200
9
Oct
20
09
Ja
n 2
01
0
Ap
r 201
0
Ju
l 201
0
Oct
20
10
Ja
n 2
01
1
Ap
r 201
1
Ju
l 201
1
Oct
20
11
Ja
n 2
01
2
Ap
r 201
2
Ju
l 201
2
Oct
20
12
Ja
n 2
01
3
Ap
r 201
3
Ju
l 201
3
Oct
20
13
Ja
n 2
01
4
Ap
r 201
4
Ju
l 201
4
Oct
20
14
Ja
n 2
01
5
Ap
r 201
5
Ju
l 201
5
Oct
20
15
Ja
n 2
01
6
Ap
r 201
6
Ju
l 201
6
Oct
20
16
Ja
n 2
01
7
Ap
r 201
7
Ju
l 201
7
Oct
20
17
Ja
n 2
01
8
Ap
r 201
8
Ju
l 201
8
Unsold Inventory Index in Months of Supply of Active Listings
Santa Clara County Real Estate Market since 2008
Per California Association of Realtors Annual Historical Data Summary and Monthly Market
Reviews. Initial months on chart topped out at 10 months of inventory. Not seasonally adjusted;
does not include condo Inventory. Data from sources deemed reliable, but may contain errors and
subject to revision. Numbers are approximate.
California Association of Realtors
for existing single family dwellings
The CAR Unsold Inventory Index measures how long it would take to
sell the current inventory of active listings at the current rate of sale.
The lower the MSI, the stronger the buyer demand as compared tothe supply of listings on the market.
Under 3 months of inventory would typically
be considered to indicate a sellers’ market. Like
most market statistics, this measurement is
subject to seasonal fluctuations.
| 2008 – 2011 Market recession | | 2012 Market recovery →
12951263
1039
721760
12181263
1575
1698
14391474
13321276
1150
991
630
768
1213
1364
1517
1428
12701294
1061
1137
1034
821
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Spring into Summer
Autumn
Autumn into Winter
Spring into Summer
House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable
but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Santa Clara County Sales Volume by Month
Market Dynamics & Seasonality: Unit Sales
Autumn into Winter
Sales of houses, condos, townhouses &
duets reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics
3015
3626
4309
2611
3417
42454536
2699
3597
4005
4486
2588
3509
4288
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Spring into
Summer
Autumn into
Winter
Spring into
Summer
Autumn into
Winter
Spring into
Summer
Autumn
House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable
but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Sales Volume by Quarter
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics & Seasonality
Autumn into
Winter
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Ju
l-1
6
Au
g-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Oc
t-1
6
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Fe
b-1
7
Ma
r-1
7
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-1
7
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
Dec-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-1
8
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-1
8
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
De
c-1
8
# New Listings Coming on Market, $3m+
# Listings Accepting Offers, $3m+
Mid-Winter Mid-Winter
Residential activity reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable but may
contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
San Mateo and Santa Clara activity
reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics
New Listings & Listings Accepting Offers, $3 Million+
Silicon Valley Luxury Home Market Seasonality
September 2016
Spring 2017
Summer
Summer
Spring 2018
September 2017
Summer
September 2018
Santa Clara County High-End Homes MarketSales Prices of $2,000,000 & Above, by Quarter
446
500
806
475
521527
597
296
347361
488
233
290
382
482
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Q4 2018 sales estimated from data available on 1/2/19. Sales reported to MLS.
Data from sources deemed reliable, but subject to error and revision. All
numbers are approximate.
The market for higher-priced homes in Santa Clara fluctuates by
season, with spring typically the dominant selling season. In Q2
2018, home sales of $2 million and above exploded, climbing
36% higher than in Q2 2017, but in Q3 & Q4 2018 the number of
sales dropped on a year over year basis.
35
42
19
24
19
5052
67
79
5153
5854
69
46
24
48
94
86
110
95
70
75
39
67
51
34
0
20
40
60
80
100Spring into Summer
Autumn into Winter
Spring into Summer
Autumn into
Winter
Sales activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable but may
contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Santa Clara County Luxury Home Sales by Month
Sales Prices of $3 Million & Above
Autumn into
Winter
Sales reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
17.7%
26.7%
34.8%
25.8%
27.4%28.4%
22.8%
16.8% 17.3%16.0%
12.4%
6.3% 5.0%
-1.6%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Oct-
17
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
Sales reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Autumn 2018
Percentages reflect appreciation rates in median
house sales price, comparing the month delineated
with the same month in the previous year.
Year-over-Year Appreciation Rates by Month
Santa Clara County, % Changes in Median House Sales Prices
▲ These are insanely high appreciation rates▲
Monthly median sales prices are prone to fluctuation, sometimes without great meaningfulness as to
changes in fair market value. Longer term trends are always more important than short-term changes.
Data from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
Oc
t-1
6
No
v-1
6
De
c-1
6
Jan
-17
Fe
b-1
7
Ma
r-17
Ap
r-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Ju
n-1
7
Ju
l-17
Au
g-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Oc
t-1
7
No
v-1
7
De
c-1
7
Jan
-18
Fe
b-1
8
Ma
r-18
Ap
r-1
8
Ma
y-1
8
Ju
n-1
8
Ju
l-18
Au
g-1
8
Se
p-1
8
Oc
t-1
8
No
v-1
8
Spring into Summer
2017
Autumn
2017
Spring 2018
House and condo activity reported to MLS, per Broker Metrics. Data from sources deemed reliable
but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers should be considered approximate.
Percentage of Listings Accepting Offers
Santa Clara County Market Dynamics by Month
Autumn
2016
As reported to MLS,
per Broker Metrics
Autumn
2018
Generally speaking, the higher the percentage, the stronger
the demand as compared to the supply of listings for sale.
50%+ indicates a ferociously hot market.
Santa Clara County CONDO Sales
12 Months Sales by Bedroom Count [as of 8/1/18]
139
236
59
121 1
206
544
435
160
61
18 2214
111
139
77
4423 14
$250,000 -$499,000
$500,000 -$749,000
$750,000 -$999,000
$1m -$1,249,000
$1.25m -$1,499,000
$1.5m -$1,749,000
$1,750,000+
Studio & 1 Bedroom 2 Bedrooms 3 Bedrooms
Sales reported to MLS
This analysis was performed in good faith with data derived from sources deemed
reliable, but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
101
290
368
323
702
928
1520
54
73
69
159
280
368
695
15
9
6
50
77
143
142
Napa
Sonoma
Contra Costa
Alameda
Marin
San Francisco
San Mateo
Santa Clara
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 2500
Sales $2m - $2,999,999 Sales $3m - $4,999,999 Sales $5,000,000+
Sales of houses, condos, co-ops, TICs and townhouses reported to MLS: Not
all luxury home sales are reported to MLS. Data from sources deemed reliable
but may contain errors and subject to revision. All numbers approximate.
Bay Area High-End Home Market by County
Homes Selling for $2,000,000+, 12 Months Sales
Unit Sales within Price Segment
Sales reported to
MLS by 11/15/18
◄ Virtually all of Contra Costa County luxury
home sales are in Diablo Valley & Lamorinda
◄ San Francisco is the only county with a large
luxury condo and co-op market: 32% of its total
home sales of $2m+
◄▲ The 2 Silicon Valley counties now
dominate Bay Area luxury home sales
◄ High-end home sales in the wine country
often include substantial acreage
The $2 million threshold is relatively arbitrary: In some
affluent neighborhoods, $2m would buy a tear-down, while
in others, a gorgeous mansion on a big lot.
63/21/13
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California, DRE 01527235. Equal Housing Opportunity. This report
has been prepared solely for information purposes. The information herein is based on or derived from information generally
available to the public and/or from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty can be given with respect to
the accuracy or completeness of the information. Compass disclaims any and all liability relating to this report, including
without limitation any express or implied representations or warranties for statements contained in, and omissions from, the
report. Nothing contained herein is intended to be or should be read as any regulatory, legal, tax, accounting or other advice
and Compass does not provide such advice. All opinions are subject to change without notice. Compass makes no
representation regarding the accuracy of any statements regarding any references to the laws, statutes or regulations of any
state are those of the author(s). Past performance is no guarantee of future results.