sameway leisure《同路人優悠版》325期
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《同路人》是全澳发行的高质素免费社区生活刊物。总编辑部位于维多利亚州首府墨尔本热闹的Burwood区。杂志每周四出版,坚持每期为澳洲华人奉上一个能激励人心的故事,一个能帮助移民融入主流社会的热点专题,以及更多覆盖家庭、教育、健康、文化、时事、经济、社会、生活资讯、信仰人生等方面的文章。除了杂志,同路人还拥有自己的书店,网站,FM电台。TRANSCRIPT
325
ISSN 1839-7913 www.sameway.com.au TEL 03 9888 7199 FAX 03 9888 7299 22.03.13–28.03.13
P.11P.11
* NCG ˆ 31/03/2013
$200$200$1480 ˆ
$1680*1.25 2.5kW/3.2kW
*
TLC Family Dental Group395 Springvale Rd, Donvale, VIC 3131 (Mel 48 F6)Junction of Springvale Rd and East Link (M3)
Ph: 03) 9878 6078
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Dr Timmy NgaiB.D.Sc.(Melb) F.I.C.C.D.E.Dental Surgeon
Dr Linda LaoB.D.S.(Otago)Dental Surgeon
Dr Melody KuoB.D.Sc.(Melb)F.I.C.C.D.E.Dental Surgeon
Dr Arthur ChuangB.D.S.(Otago)Dental Surgeon
Medibank PrivateHBA • HCF • MBFPreferred Provider
www.tlcdentist.com.au
Dr James Kwong Dr Michael Kotsifakis
/
Dr James Kwong Dr Michael Kotsifakis
3 Rezes St, Wantirna VIC 3152
03 9887 0805
8/249 Stud Rd, Wantirna VIC 3152
03 9887 0888
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60
Camberwell Electrics1110 Toorak Rd, Camberwell VIC 3124 (Melway 60 C5)Alamein Line - Burwood StationNo. 75 (Stop 51 - Toorak Road)
0419 989 444CAR PARK
TOORAK ROAD
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CAMBERWELL ROAD CITY
03 9835 4343
22•03•201306
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A) 3/4,5/4(2 )B) 8/4,10/4,12/4(3 )10:00am - 11:30am5-12 A) 30 /2B) 45 /3
(Oil Pastel) 6H-6B
A) 3/4,5/4(2 )B) 8/4,10/4,12/4(3 )11:45am - 1:15pm5-12 A) 30 /2B) 45 /3
A) 2/4 - 5/4 (4 )B) 8/4 - 12/4(5 )1:30pm - 3:00pm5-12 A) 60 /4B) 75 /5
HB
8/4 - 12/4(5 )1:30pm - 3:00pm7-15 75 /5
9/4 11/4(2 )10:00am - 11:30am7-12 40 2
2013
A) 2/4 - 5/4 (4 )B) 8/4 - 12/4(5 )1:30pm - 3:00pm7-15 A) 60 /4B) 75 /5
6H-6B
Maths tuition Year 11Linear Equations, Matrices, Algebraic Manipulation,
Specifics of quadratics/Cubics/Quartics/ Graphs to power N, Graphing, Domains/Ranges and probability etc.
(1) VCE: ATAR of 99.9 with Special Maths (50) Mathematical Methods (48)(2) Recipient of University Melbourne: Melbourne National Scholarship(3)
8/4 - 12/4/133:00pm 4:30pm$150/5
(03) 9898 8832 / 0401 697 791
22•03•201307
2 0 1 3 3 6Australian Chinese Medical Association
Dr Danforn Lim
Dr Stephen Li
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Listen out for lung cancer3 17
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• David Currow
2013 3 17
www.cancerinstitute.org.au.
22•03•201308
RejoiceCommunityCentre
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450
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17/4/13 - 19/6/13
A) 11:30am – 12:30pm
B) 7:30pm – 8:30 pm
2 - 6 Oxford St., Box Hill, VIC 3128
$ 120 / 10
Zumba
10
(03) 9898 8832 / 0401 697 791(Melbourne)
2-6 Oxford St., Box Hill, (Melway 47 C10)
9:30 3:00
(03) 9898 8832 / 0401 697 791(Melbourne) 2-6 Oxford St.,
Box Hill (Melway 47 C10)9:30 3:00
16/4 - 14/5/13 10:00am - 12:00nn$100/5
A)15/4 - 6/5/13A)1:00pm - 2:30pm B)18/4 - 16/5/13B)1:00pm - 2:30pm $80/4
A)15/4 - 6/5/13A)10:00am - 11:30pm B)18/4 - 16/5/13B)10:00am - 11:30am $80/4
17/4 - 8/5/13 11:00am - 12:30pm$80/4
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ConsonantPronunciation(B-Z), Vowels (a,e,i,o,u) 100 most frequent words.
19/4 - 10/5/13 10:30am - 12:30pm$120/4
15/4 - 13/5/131:00pm - 2:30pm$90/5
A)18/4 - 27/6/13B)19/4 - 28/6/13 A)10:00am - 11:30pmB)10:00am - 12:00nnA) $110/10 B)$121/11
22•03•201309
(03) 9898 8832 / 0401 697 791
(Melbourne) 2-6 Oxford St., Box Hill (Melway 47 C10)
9:30 3:00
Search Engine Internet
11/4/13 – 6/6/13
10:00am - 12:00pm
$110/8
17/4/13 – 5/6/13
12:30am - 3:00pm
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skype
29/4/13 – 24/6/13
12:30pm - 3:00pm
$110/8
A)15/4/13 – 3/6/13
10:00am - 12:30pm
B) 9/4/13 – 28/5/13
7:00pm - 9:30pm
$110/8
11/4/13 – 6/6/13
12:30pm - 3:00pm
$110/8
9/4/13 – 28/5/13
10:00am - 12:30pm
$110/8
Photoscape
PhotoscapeMicrosoft PowerPoint
17/4/13 – 5/6/13
10:00am - 12:30pm
$110/8
MYOB - Payroll Module
(1) (2) (3)
(4) (5)
17/4/13 – 19/6/13
7:00pm - 9:30pm
$150/10
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ACFE
PowerPointMYOB
MYOB-
(1)(2) (3)
(4)(5)
(6)
20/4/13 – 8/6/13
9:30am - 12:30pm
$150/8
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13/4/13 - 1/6/1312:30pm - 3:00pm$110/8
22•03•201310
Nicholas Kotsiras1,400
22
Premier of Victoria Chinese Column - : : 03 9651 5000 : 03 9651 5054: [email protected]: 1 Treasury Place, Melbourne, 3002
: www.premier.vic.gov.au
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22•03•201311
Professor Seong-Seng Tan Specialist Orthodontist
BDS(Mal), MDS (Adel) DPhil (Oxon) FRACDS
Dr. Larry Ching-Fan Li Specialist Orthodontist
BDS, MOrth(HK), MRACDS, MOrthRCSEd, ADC
03 9579 0111 0435919258
UMakeMeSmile.com.au
[email protected] East174 East Boundary Road, Bentleigh East 3165
Canterbury102 Highfield Road, Canterbury, VIC 3126
20
12Damon system
18
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Professor Seong-Seng Tan 30
You Make Me SmileYou Make Me SmileDR.TAN ORTHODONTICS
1991
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NZMAF
10AM-5:00PM 10AM-4PM03-9898 3893 0412 181 798 www.fengyu.com.au
908 Whitehorse Road, Box Hill VIC 3128
22•03•201313
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1722-03-2013 ISSUE 325 Driveway
Editor: Geoff Fickling, Edmund Chow Design: Driveway Design Group Tel: 03 9888 7199 Fax: 03 9888 7299 Suite 7, Level 1, 2-8 Burwood Hwy, Burwood East VIC 3151 [email protected]
Audited17,000
as at Mar 31,2012
Distributed inMelbourne, Sydney,Brisbane & Adelaide
22-03-13 No. 325
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20 30“ ” “ ”
Alfa Romeo Enzo Ferrari • Enzo Ferrari
1947
25 Modena 166 Spider Corsa
Bill Lowe • 20 50
French Lombard 1929Philip Island Grand Prix
212 Export Coupe 2 2.6 V12 Mille Miglia
Le Mans 24
1952
7011 Rob Roy Hill Climb •
3 W H Lowe and Co Pty Ltd4,600 4,600
Translate: Edmund Chow
Driveway22-03-13 No. 325
Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-201318
20 50 1954 1 Peter Whitehead
1949 125Dick Cobden • Queensland(
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1952/53 500 21955 F1 3.0
• Tony GazeLex Davison
19571958 Bathurst Panorama circuit
Alberto Ascari• 1952 1953
1956 1951 212 Export Berlinetta Nino Sacilotto 1954
Monza Sports Stan Coffey •
1956F1 8
1959 250 GT •
Tony Oxley • David McKay • 1961
19511960
Scuderia Veloce1962 Scuderia Veloce Motors
(SVM) 1964 250 LM LM Le Mans 1965 6
12 WH Lowe and Co
250 LM Spencer Martin •
Surfers Paradise, Queensland 12
250 LM “... ...“
1968 250 LM 330 P4Mount Panorama’s
Con-Rod Straight 291
GP Chris Amon • 1968 Tasman SeriesDino 246 F1 Derek Bell -
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Graeme Lawrence • 1970Tasman
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Ralph Lowe • W H Lowe and Co RHD
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1975 36 1976 39
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1974 246 Dino 308 GTB 308 GT / 4
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1983 • SVMBill Brown •
Laurie Sutton Suttons CEOScuderia Veloce Motors(SVM)
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1991 2713
20 901995 2004 50 82Suttons
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1922-03-2013 ISSUE 325 Driveway
20 Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-2013
Driveway22-03-13 No. 325
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2007 60F1
100 Lygon Street F1
Circular Quay
2007 Kimi Raikkonen -
F430 - F430 -
Ferrari FF
www.mazda.gws.com.au
Garry and Warren SmithG S iGarry and Warren Smith
715 Springvale Road, Mulgrave LMCT 506
Tel: 03 8562 5555 Fax: 03 9561 4070
Garry and Warren Smith Mazda
8:30am - 6:00pm 10:00am - 5:00pm
Service@Mulgrave 715 Springvale Road Service@Ferntree Gully 1020 Burwood Highway [email protected] Chan
0411 148 133 Simon Chea
0411 637 301
www.gws.com.au
Andrew Ng0400 359 361
CX9 classic$45990
3.7 V6 7204kW 367Nm
$48500
2122-03-2013 ISSUE 325 Driveway
HING CHEONG PROFINISHAccident Repair Centre
*
*
24
15 Pilgrim Court, Ringwood, VIC 31349873 1886 Hak Kouch 0408 336 388
NICHOLAS BODY WORKS
Lexton Rd
Springfield RdM
iddleboroughRd
61-63 Lexton Road, Box Hill, 3129 (MelwayP47 G7)Email: [email protected]
(03) 9899 1831 / 0438 709 828
RACV, AAMI, GIO, ALIANCE
Knox City5
RACV,AAMI,ALLIANZ,GIO,HOTLINE
24
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DRAGON PANEL WORKS P/L
Wilson Tang 0438 268 068 Maggie 0439 369 972F5/5 Sherwood Court, Wantirna South 3152 (Melway 64B11)Tel: 03-9887 3688 Fax: 03-9800 3688
3 Richards Street, Mitcham, VIC 3132 map 48 H903-9873 1399 0438 765 525
vincentsmashrepairs.com.au email: [email protected]
Vincent Goh( )
Driveway ISSUE 325 22-03-201322
Driveway22-03-13 No. 325
2008 F430 Scuderia 5California
California 2008 10
2008 10 Zagame
16 430 Scuderia16M
16M 2009 Ferrari California 6 7458 Italia
2010 Amedeo FelisaFerrari Maserati Sydney
Zagame
2011 FF Steve WyattCoppa Shell
2012 458 GT3 Bathurst 12Bathurst
60 FF Ferrari 458 SpiderF12 Berlinetta
2013Herbert •Appleroth 2013 4 1
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: 0421 784 [email protected]
www.youtube.com/707 tommylam www.youtube.com/d200hk
0426 991 781 0433 966 251
0421 249 439 03-9790 0462
1 5 View Road Springvale 3171 Melway 80B11
2 33 Efron St Nunawading 3131
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418 Station St, Box Hill : 434 486 189/98971298 Rachel S
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167 Coleman Pde, Glen Waverley vic 3150
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city couple, Deakin160 180
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22•03•201323
James Motor Repairs
(03)9878 2928 (03)9878 2833 0412 635 4329/11Mary Street, Blackburn, VIC 3130 Melway Ref: 48A10
Low Bake Oven
R.W.C. Benny’s Motor Auto Repair (R.W.C)
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Mobile: 0411 479 884
4 250 6 310 8 370 12 500 16 630 20 750
$32 $110
0415 688 222 G a r y
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$62 $120 0412169942 John
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4 :$280,6 :$3408 :$410,12 :$56016 :$700,20 :$850
SAM'S
City East Driving SchoolBURWOOD $110
8 (2 ) $380 12 (2 ) $520 20 (3 ) $790
HPT
0413 978 668
99%
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J's Road
/ ( )
$35 0413 451 081
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Ken ( ) 0403 218 688/
(03) 9855 8520
1590%
$35 $120
0413 256 170
ADTA
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DIA
0414 663 335
58 Sarton Road,Clayton (Mel. 79H2) Email: [email protected]
Tel: 03 9544 5858 Mob: 0422 696 633
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0431482295 0422409180
Registered Tax Agent / Registered ASIC Agent - $50 - $120
/ - $350 GST (BAS) - $60 - $28/hour - $60
- $650
Sw
-500
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70-74 Smith Street, Kensington Vic 3031 (Mel Way 2A,B3)
(03)9376 1188
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0433 828 532WhatsApp [email protected]
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Ground Floor, 635 Waverly Road, Glen Waverley, VIC 3150 (Glen ) 8683 5073 / 0434 192 930 www.jgaccountants.com.au
Sw
-620
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-487
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-829
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22•03•201324
CCL Aus
0431 440 788 /0411 611 208
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$45 / $120
$810(ABN/GST) $45
Financial Planning(Refer to Authorised Representative)Inverstment Retirement PlanningSelf Managed Superannuation
34C ILLUKA CRESCENT, MT WAVERLEY. VIC 3149 70H49886 6752 / 0431 787 223 E-mail:[email protected]
- Reg. Tax Agent
Glasslink
0415 657 585
Sw
-805
RMIT 1 MIEAust CPEng (Civil, Structural)
(Chartered Professional Engineer, National Professional Engineers Register)
0413 588 180 [email protected]
Consulting Engineers
Structural Engineer Civil Engineer
/
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1 5CCTV
/0431 607 876
718-151-805
0411 720 103
Sw
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: 0403 001 684Warranty
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Peter 0481 185 436
SUNY
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0433817688
: 0450 213 69803 9008 9283 JIM
9369 9988/ 0403 371 738
Licence
0412 362 279/ 9801 8120
9848 8681/0425 718 168
1.25 Panasonic $1280+GST /
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0414286588/ (Mark)
30
0413 495 177
• • • •
Quality Air Heating & Cooling
: David Que 0412 868 040 / 9891 8778
/
( / / )
:0404 734 888 / 0405 694 999
0421 240 698 9886 7718
0423 470 317
REC 15823
LAN TVWilson
0413 305 959 9893 3260
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0403 001 684
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: 0433 556 199 0402 961 012
JETTER
0419 135 720 Jeff ( )0433 263 537 Christi ( )
PLUMBERJeff & Sons Plumbing
PIC License No: 47082
Sw
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1300 228 2880424 329 388 Frank Kong)
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REC 22216 ARC AU30332
0432 808 188 James
Sw
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Available at Woolworths, Dan Murphy's and selected stores.
Distributed by Beach Avenue Wholesalers Pty Ltd 38-42 Ordish Road, Dandenong South, Victoria, 3175,
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购买方式 :拨打 *139*6139# 或简讯至6139 至 3535
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Adult Learning ClassAdult Learning Class
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2013
67%63%
2007 2010
30 200 10050
12012
7.5%
• Mervyn Lewis /
8%
2010 2011 10.4% 9.2%
2008 30%
10%7%
2.5% 30
2010 2018
20112019
1979
The China miracle. Is it coming to an end?
阿德萊德市區唐人街 CHINATOWN 金源超市 東方超市 順發超市 香港食品中心 裕記食品 國際超市 地理旅遊社
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Notwithstanding anxieties about the debt crisis in Europe and the ‘now-you-see-it, now-you- don’t’ US recovery, few things matter as much for the rest of 2012 as what China does—and not just for Australia. China’s growth over the last decade, in combination with that of other emerging economies, has helped underpin the international economy post-crisis and prop up the ailing developed world.
In fact, what China has done can only be described as astonishing. Starting from a low base three decades ago, China is now the world’s second largest economy, a manufacturing powerhouse and a vast source of global savings. It generates extraordinary economic statistics, consuming 67% of the world’s corn, 63% of iron ore, buys more mobile phones than the rest of the world combined, and is the largest exporter of solar panels. It has passed the United States in steel production, exports, fixed investment, manufacturing output, car sales, patents granted, total energy consumption (crude oil, natural gas, nuclear power and renewables), and even spending on groceries.
Former Australian Prime Minister (2007-2010) Kevin Rudd recently noted that “the pace of change [in China] outstrips our analytical frameworks for comprehending it.” How true! China has transformed itself from a rural to a predominantly urban nation, achieving in 30 years what took about 200 years in Britain, 100 years in the United States and 50 years in Japan. Not surprisingly, the ten fastest growing cities in the world are all in China.
Yet, despite these remarkable accomplishments, there is considerable unease about China’s growth prospects. In January of this year, the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics warned that “2012 will be a year of complexity and challenges so we should be fully prepared.” And so it has turned out to be, with a major political crisis (the Bo Xilai affair) clouding the year of the leadership transition, and the lowering of the official growth rate target in March to 7.5%. This was followed by a disappointing second quarter annual growth rate of 7.6%. These events have set off a chorus of doomsayers saying that the Chinese export-oriented, high investment growth model was unsustainable all along.
The China critics have been wrong before and, for Australia’s sake at least, it must be hoped that they are wrong again. To this end, a number of points can be made.
First, as the Chinese population ages and the ranks of those of working-age fall relatively, China no longer needs to grow quite so quickly as the 8% target previously seen as necessary to maintain social cohesion.
Second, there is an element of statistical illusion as a result of the higher-than-expected growth rates of 10.4% and 9.2% in 2010 and 2011. Subsequent GDP numbers are being compared with a higher base, as the Chinese economy is 30% larger than it was in 2008.
Third, the Chinese economy does not grow steadily year after year. It experiences economic cycles, and rather large ones. The difference is that the cycle operates around a strong upward trend. It is more like a sine wave around a 45 degree line, not like one around a near horizontal line as observed for OECD countries. Uplift remains even during the downswing phase.
Fourth, the power of compound growth remains. Suppose that China slows from its previous 10% growth to 7% per annum. Its economy would instead double in size every 10 years instead of every 8 years. The United States would take almost 30 years to do the same if it grows at 2.5% per annum.
Fifth, using 2010 data, my co-author, Richard Iley, and I forecast that the Chinese economy was likely to overtake the United States economy and become the world’s largest economy measured in US dollar terms by the end of 2018 (the articles were published in Accounting Forum and Taylor’s Business Review in 2011). We have since recalculated the forecasts based on the current trajectories of the two economies. Surprisingly, the result is unchanged because the Chinese economy grew faster than we (and others) expected in 2011. China may still be on track to become the biggest economy end-2018. Even with growth scaled back China would appear to be fast closing the gap on the United States.
Such straight-line extrapolations are obviously fraught. After all, in 1979 Japan was predicted to take the Number One mantle from America. Will China also falter? Japan’s population then was one-half of the United States, and it needed to be twice as productive. China’s population is four times America’s, and only needs to be one-quarter as productive to exceed US output. This would seem not just possible, but virtually inevitable.
Mervyn Lewis is recognised as a world-expert in monetary economics, international finance and financial systems. He is the Professor of Banking and Finance in the School of Commerce and a member of UniSA’s Centre for Applied Financial Studies.
*The translation is done by Sameway
Magazine. UniSA and Professor Mervyn Lewis take no responsibility for any translation errors.
* unisa.edu.au/Research/CAFS
www.sameway.com.auwww.sameway.com.au
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