sailing into a sea of excitement: an earth system perspective on marine research in the next decade...
TRANSCRIPT
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SAILING INTO A SEA OF EXCITEMENT:An Earth System Perspective on Marine
Research in the Next Decade
Will SteffenExecutive Director, IGBP
Royal Swedish Academy of SciencesStockholm
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Set points at ca.200 & 290 ppm
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The Vostok Challenge
What are the forcings and feedbacks that move the Earth System between glacial and interglacial states?What are the important marine processes in theseforcings and feedbacks?
What is the role of the ocean in controlling the set points?
How important is marine biology in the self-regulation of the Earth System as seen in the Vostok record?
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J.R. Petit et al., Nature, 399, (1999)J.R. Petit et al., Nature, 399, 429-436 (1999)
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From Ridgwell 2002
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SeaWIFS Project, NASA/GFSC & ORBIMAGE
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SeaWiFS data from NASA/GSFC
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From Takahashi et al. 1997
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From Piketh et al. 2000
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The Role of the Ocean in the Planetary Machinery
How important is marine biology in the functioningof the Earth System?
How important is the complexity of marine ecosystems? Of higher trophic levels in food webs?
How critical is the linkage between land and oceanin the functioning of the Earth System?
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From Schellnhuber 2002
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Abrupt Changes?
Records from the past have shown us that the Earth Systemis capable of abrupt changes that could devastate modern civilisations. For example, the mean temperature in the North Atlantic region has changed by 10 deg C in a decade.Could such changes happen again? Could global change actas a trigger for such changes? Are human pressures on theEarth System pushing the System towards or away from these changes?
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From Rahmstorf and Alley 2002
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After Broecker 1991
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From Rahmstorf and Alley 2002
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Change in the strength of the North Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (svds) in a
number of simulations with increases in greenhouse gases
Source: Cubasch et al. 2001
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•the Atlantic THC can have multiple equilibria which implies thresholds
•reorganisations of the THC can be triggered by changes in the surface heat and freshwater fluxes
•most models indicate a weakening of the THC in the next 100 years. This implies an approach towards possible thresholds
•crossing of thresholds and associated irreversible changes of ocean circulation cannot be excluded within the range of projected climate changes of the next century.
Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation:
Abrupt Changes: Future Surprises?
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Source: K. Lochte, IGBP/SCOR Ocean Futures Document
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From Takahashi et al. 1997
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From Sundby 2000
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Adapted from Fromentin and Planque 1996
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Ocean Dynamics, Thresholds, Regime Shifts and Abrupt Changes
What are the critical thresholds and switches in the ocean?
How are abrupt changes and regime shifts in one aspect ofOcean dynamics processed through the entire physical-Chemical-biological system?
What are the best techniques for analysing and predictingAbrupt changes and regime shifts?
Adapted from the GAIM ’Earth System Questions’
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ATMOSPHERE
LAND
OCEAN
LAND-OCEAN
ATMOS-OCEAN
ATMOS-LAND
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Vostok Ice Core
Mauna Loa Record
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IPCC Projections2100 AD
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
0
0.5
1
-0.5
2
4
3
5
6
1
0
N.H
. Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Glo
bal
Tem
pera
ture
(°C
)
Adaptation -Sustainability
Survival
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Ocean Dynamics and Global Change in the 21st Century
What and where are the vital aspects/componentsof marine biology and chemistry in terms of Earth System functioning?
What and where are the switch-points that can be triggered by direct human actions?
Will the ocean act as a brake on or an accelerator ofglobal change in the 21st century?
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