sabet presentation
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Marijuana Legalization
Issues: Where Can We
Go?
Kevin A. Sabet, Ph.D.Director, Drug Policy Institute and Assistant
Professor, University of Florida President, Policy Solutions Lab, Cambridge, MA
www.kevinsabet.com
Disclosure
Neither I nor any member of my family has a relationship with any
proprietary entity concerning services discussed in this
presentation.
Neither I nor any member of my family has a relationship with the
alcohol or tobacco industry.
Why Are We Having This Discussion?
Because They Have Been Brilliant…
And We Have Not Been!
All or nothing?Legalization vs. Prohibition
They’ve organized at the state level to push their
initiatives.
They have major donors who fund their work and
messages.
They’ve secured legislative champions at all levels – local, state and federal.
They’ve gotten the attention of editorial boards and media –
including print, television and social media.
They’ve mobilized major grassroots and student
supporters.
They are present and active in every single
academic, think-tank, UN, and other international and domestic discussion
on drug policy.
How Can We Turn This Around?
Sources: Gallup http://bit.ly/olrSEQ and GSS
Marijuana legalization could pass: In one poll, National support is 50%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Do not support legalization Support Legalization
But Have We Seen This Before?
Percentage of U.S. 12th Grade Students Reporting Past Month
Use of Cigarettes and Marijuana, 1975 to 2009
19751977
19791981
19831985
19871989
19911993
19951997
19992001
20032005
20072009
0
10
20
30
40
Perc
ent Cigarettes
Marijuana
Source: The Monitoring the Future study, the University of Michigan
Is the late 1970s…
In 5 years, 11 states “decriminalized” marijuana
NORML bragged, 1978: Keith Stroup “We are trying to get marijuana reclassified medically. If we do that, (we'll do it in at least 20 states this year for chemotherapy patients) we'll be using the issue as a red herring to give marijuana a good name.” (Emory Wheel, 1978)
2012: MASSCANN/NORML spokesman: “Stepping stone to legalization? I hope so. That’s the plan. Decrim 2008, Medical 2012, Legal 2016. Yes we want to legalize! We will completely legalize for everybody in 2016.” (YouTube, 2012)
Legalization Resurgence
Brilliant PR: “Marijuana is Medicine”
Tight Marijuana Legalization Races in ‘12
Our Side Often Feels Dejected (public grantees “cannot lobby”)
Generational trends in support for legalization (Caulkins)
Perc
enta
ge F
avor
ing
Lega
lizati
on
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%Percent Favoring Legalization by
Birth Cohort (GSS)
Overall Silent Generation (1925-1945)Baby Boomers (1946-1964) Generation X and Y (1965-2000)
In 2012
Three States Voting on Marijuana Legalization: OR, WA, CO
WA and CO are most worrisome – professionally run campaigns with $
$$
Four States to Vote on “Medical” Marijuana
Factors Leading to Increase
Outspent
Messenger problem (generational familiarity)
Seen and framed as sensible alternative
We Must Always Emphasize
We Don’t Have All The Answers
Current Policies Can Be Reformed, But Legalization is Unnecessary for
That
Legalization Exposes Us to Unknown Risk
Ultimately the Question is this:
“Is the right to get high and buy legal pot in a store worth the risk to kids in the form of greater addiction and learning
deficits, the risk to society when we have another legal entity advertising an
addictive substance, and the risk to our economy in the form of greater safety
and health costs (like car crashes or the costs to health care and the costs of a
newly regulated system)?”
We Lose When We…
Say that Current Policy Needs No Changes, “Everything is Great”
Go on the Defensive About Law Enforcement Resources
Don’t Integrate Doctors, Health Workers, Teachers, Soccer Moms in
Our Work
Going Through the Arguments
6.6
23.3
51.9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Marijuana Cigarettes Alcohol
Current Use of Major Substances inthe General Population, 2009
Source: SAMHSA, 2009 National Survey on Drug Use and Health (September 2010).
Past Month Use (Ages 12 or Older)
Alcohol & Tobacco: Money Makers or Dollar Drainers?
Alcohol
Costs
$14
Tobacco
$185bil.
$25
$200bil.
Revenues
bil.bil.
Costs
Revenues
“If Only We Treated It Like Alcohol…”
2.7 million 847,000Arrests for alcohol-related Marijuana-related
crimes in 2008 arrests in 2008(Does NOT include violence;
Includes violations of liquor laws anddriving under the influence)
Effect of Legalization on Price & Consumption
RAND: Price Will Drop More Than 80%
Consumption Will Increase
Tax evasion a major concern
What incentives do legal corporations have to keep price
low and consumption high?
Alcohol: “Drink Responsibly” and
Tax Low
Legalization: Experience Elsewhere?
No modern nation has tried legalization, though most Western countries do not imprison people for simple marijuana possession.
- The Netherlands, Portugal, Italy use rates lower for some drugs since 10 yrs ago; higher for others.
- The Dutch experienced a three-fold increase in marijuana use among young adults after commercialization expanded.
Num
ber o
f Sen
tenc
ed P
rison
ers
38,900148,600
224,900 263,800 251,400
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners and Drug Offenders Under State Jurisdiction, 1985 to 2009
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, Prisoners in 2009 (December 2010); Prisoners in 1996 (June 1997).
6/2011
All Offenses
Drug Offenses
Underground Markets and Crime
RAND: Mexican DTOs earn 15-25% of revenue from marijuana.
It is highly likely that legalization would not eliminate black markets for drugs.
State Legalization: 2-4% impact on DTO revenues (California)
- Most legalization proposals call for taxes on drugs, which increases likelihood that markets will remain endemic.
- TCOs involved in numerous illegal trades
Taxes Necessary to Prevent a Price Collapse Are Enormous
• Excise taxes create gray markets
• Most relevant metrics are– Price per unit weight– Price per unit volume
• Canada tried but had to repeal ~300% excise taxes on tobacco
Cross Sectional Relationship Between Tobacco Tax & Evasion (Caulkins)
y = 0.1141x + 0.0018R² = 0.5559
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
$0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00
Cons
umpti
on f
rom
Sm
uggl
ing
Excise Tax ($ per pack)
Placing a $50 per Ounce MJ Tax on the Same Scale (assuming 20 grams per
pack)
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
$0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60
Cons
umpti
on f
rom
Sm
uggl
ing
Excise Tax per Ounce
Marijuana’s Health Effects
Most people who use marijuana once will stop, and not get addicted.
1 in 6 kids who try marijuana will become addicted.
For the group of people who keep smoking marijuana, the health
harms are underappreciated and costly.
Potency: Increased THC Contentin Seized Marijuana
PERCENT THC FROM 1983 TO 200910%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0’85 ’90 ’95 ’00 ’05
Sources: The University of Mississippi Potency Monitoring Project
Long Term Effectsof Marijuana
32 ESTIMATED PREVALENCE OF DEPENDENCE AMONG USERS
23
1715
119
8
5
Tobacco Alcohol Marijuana Cocaine Stimulant Analgesics Psychedelics Heroin
Source: Wagner, F.A. & Anthony, J.C. From First drug use to drug dependence; developmental periods of riskfor dependence upon cannabis, cocaine, and alcohol. Neuropsychopharmacology 26, 479-488 (2002).
282Heroin
175Inhalants
126Sedatives
351Stimulants 358
Hallucinogens
451Tranquilizers
Dependence on or Abuseof Specific Illicit Drugs
in the Past Year AmongPersons 12 or Older, 2008
1,411Cocaine4,199
Marijuana
1,716Pain Relievers
Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration. (2009). Office of Applied Studies.Treatment Episode Data Set (TEDS): 2009 Discharges from Substance Abuse Treatment Services, DASIS.
Increased Marijuana TreatmentAdmissions 1993 and 2007
PERCENT OF ADMISSIONS60%
19932007
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0Alcohol Cocaine Heroin Marijuana
Source: Treatment Episode Data Set, US Health and Human Services, 1993 & 2007
Marijuana and Kids
The adolescent brain is especially susceptible to marijuana use.
That means that when kids use, they have a greater chance of addiction since their brains are being primed.
If used regularly before 18, new research shows that IQ drops by 8 points at age 38, even when that
person has stopped.
Let’s Not Go Back Here
The Liggett Group: “If you are really and truly not going to sell [cigarettes] to children, you are going to be out of business in 30 years.” R. J. Reynolds: “Realistically, if our company is to survive and prosper, over the long term we must get our share of the youth market.”
Lorillard: “The base of our business is the high school student.” Phillip Morris: “Today's teenager is tomorrow's potential regular customer… Because of our high share of the market among the youngest smokers, Philip Morris will suffer more than the other companies from the decline in the number of teenage smokers.”
There are many ways to reduce incarceration and other related consequences without legalizing drugs.
SolutionsSmart International
Prevention Treatment Recovery Enforcement Efforts
The future is uncertain…
19731975
19771979
19811983
19851987
19891991
19931995
19971999
20012003
20052007
20092011
20132015
20172019
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Extrapolation of Percentage Favoring Legalization Given Cohort Turnover
(Jonathan Caulkins)
Perc
enta
ge F
avor
ing
Lega
lizati
on
WWhat did we learn in California? (Caulkins)
20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Percent Voting No on Prop 19
Vo
tin
g N
o O
n P
rop
19
Min
us
Ou
twar
dly
Ag
ain
st L
egal
izat
ion
Liberal Income
$40K-$80K
Income Under $40K
Latino
Age 18-34
Immigrant
Conservative
< HS Educa-tion
Income $80K+
Parents of Children in Public Schools
Age 55+
Male
Female
49
Overall
Swin
g Vo
ters VOTED
NO
• 1 in 11 of those who voted ‘No’ agree that marijuana should be legalized but did not like the specifics of Prop 19
• Focus on Specifics of Proposal, NOT generalizations
• Form partnerships with key groups– Immigrant populations– 55+– Females, Soccer Moms, Public Schools
Immediate Steps for All of Us
Recruit Younger Generation as Leaders
Go Out of Our Way to Not Look Inflexible, We Must Reclaim
“Reform”
Pick Battles Wisely
Think Like “Google” or “Apple” Not “Microsoft”
THANK YOU!KEVINSABET@GMAI
L.COMWWW.KEVINSABET.C
OM