1DSCI 2710-002 FALL – 2016Th 6:30 – 9: 20 PM: Classroom: BLB 080

INSTRUCTOR: Xiaotong Liu, Ph. D.

OFFICE: BLB 367 D E-MAIL: Xiaotong.liu@unt.edu

OFFICE HOURS: TH 5:20 – 6:20 p.m. Other hours by appointment.

REQUIRED BOOKS

1. Business Statistics: Analytics for Decision Making (CUSTOM EDITION) by Kvanli/Pavur/Keeling (It is a light blue paper cover = easy to recognize)

Comment: The hard copy of this text will be used along with the electronic version available on Blackboard. The hard copy is packaged with the access code. You cannot purchase the access code separately. To access the electronic version with its supporting materials, you will need to login to your section’s Blackboard website and then provide the access code that appears inside the front cover of your textbook upon your initial use of the electronic textbook material. After completing all the assigned homework for each chapter, you will take the chapter’s post-test in Blackboard, testing you over the assigned homework exercises of that chapter. These post-tests will be part of your final grade. Do not purchase a used version of the textbook since you will be unable to take the post-tests as the access codes are designed for one-semester use in this course by each student and are not transferable.

2. Technology Blackboard Learn is being used for this course. This web site is located at

IMPORTANT: If for any reason, you end up re-taking this course during another semester, this code will no longer be usable and you will need to purchase another code. Essentially, you are purchasing the rights to the Cengage material in Blackboard for one semester. Keep this in mind if you are deciding whether to drop the course. If you are retaking DSCI 2710 this semester, send an email to me and I will give you another textbook option. Be sure to tell when you last took the course and the instructor’s name. If you are retaking the course, you will not need to purchase another 30-character Hawkes code.However, once you complete DSCI 2710, you will have access to the course materials in DSCI 3710 and will not be required to purchase a separate code in that course.

IMPORTANT NOTE – This is the last semester we shall use the KPK textbook noted above for DSCI 2710 and the Spring 2017 semester will be the last semester for this book for DSCI 3710; therefore we highly recommend that you take DSCI 3710 in the Spring 2017 = all your materials will be good for both courses.

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learn.unt.edu. & announcements will be posted here as needed. Click on “First Look” to view the requirements of the course.

3. Business Statistics:Hawkes Learning, by James S. Hawkes of Hawkes Learning. Notes: (1) This software is required to complete the assignments that are equivalent to a substantial part of your grade. (2) You will be able to use this software by purchasing an Access Code. To Purchase and Access Code: For those of you with a Visa or MasterCard, follow Option (1). If you don=t have such a card, follow Option (2).

Option 1: Go to http://www.hawkeslearning.com and select Get your Access Code. Then click on the button under Purchase your Access Code. Shop by School: University of North Texas - Denton Statistics will appear; select that and then pay. Option 2: Purchase the box containing this software in the UNT Bookstore or wherever this software is sold on campus. Inside the box is a software license number that is necessary in Step 4 (below). Obtain your access code by using Step 4.

4. Obtaining your Hawkes code: Log on to www.hawkeslearning.com and select Get your Access Code. Then click on the button under Get your Access Code. Be sure to select University of North Texas – Denton as the School. Then click on Submit. If there is a 15 minute delay in receiving your code, contact Hawkes Learning at 800-426-9538 and they will be happy to assist you. Be sure to enter your name exactly as the registrar at UNT has your name (e.g., no nicknames or newly-married names).

The course ID is UNTBSTAT.After clicking on Getting Started, you will see the following seven PowerPoint files. Take a look at these seven files (in order) to get off to a smooth start in this course.

You will also find copies of old Practice Exams by going to the BLB Computer Lab: Computer --------S Drive-----------Dake Folder.

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GOALS: At the end of the course, you should:

1. have an increased appreciation for the use of statistics in business decision making,2. be better able to select the appropriate statistical tool/methodology to aid in business decision making, 3. be able to use a computer spreadsheet program such as Excel to describe and analyze numerical data,4. be better able to communicate in the language of applied business statistics,5. have acquired a more positive attitude towards business statistics,6. be able to manipulate simple statistical formulae to solve non-verbal (numerical) problems,7. have an enhanced ability to follow directions and instructions,8. have a much better vision of how analytics are used in analysis and business decisions,9. understand more about job/career potential of analytics and Decision Sciences.10. Think about becoming a Decision Sciences Major!

TEACHING METHOD

1. You are encouraged to pay attention to commercials and news items in printed as well as audio-visual media to become aware of the wide use of statistics in our daily lives. To better assist you in understanding the use of these methodologies in business many of the class problems will be presented as simple business cases.

2. You should work the homework exercises assigned during the course since the post-test questions refer to these assigned exercises. In addition to the problems in the textbook, the Hawkes Learning modules are intended to assist you in better structuring the learning time you spend on practice problems.

EVALUATIONTo demonstrate your ability to use quantitative techniques in business, you will answer exam questions based on short cases. Rather than being purely numerical, problems will be presented in word format. In addition, you will work on Excel case studies that require you to use an Excel spreadsheet program to analyze and describe real-world business data. By simulating real business problems and requiring you to communicate in writing, using the language of statistics, these evaluation instruments will reinforce the course objectives.

General Comments:11. Doing the assignments is essential to succeeding in this course. You are encouraged to keep up with the homework problems and check the answers to the odd-numbered exercises provided in the back of the textbook. These answers are also available in

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Blackboard by clicking on Course Chapters > Resources > Textbook Appendix B.

2. You have the final responsibility for seeing that you properly withdraw before the scheduled last drop day. Anyone who stops attending class should execute the drop procedure since failure to do so Dec. result in a grade of “F” which cannot be changed.

3. You are requested not to phone or email the ITDS department or the instructor for your final grade in the course. Course grades are available electronically in the week following final-exam week.

The PowerPoint Lectures

The PowerPoint lecture for each chapter is available inside Blackboard Course Content For example, here is the lecture file for Chapter 1.

1DSCI 2710 Course Specific Policies

1. Homework: Homework will be assigned (see page 16) and should be completed when due. Completing the homework is critical to learning the material and completing the exams on time. You are expected to read and understand the relevant sections of the textbook. Note – I will review “where to start” on the homework in class.

NOTES: (1) Part of your grade will consist of the nine chapter post-tests. To take a post-test, while in Blackboard, click on Post-Tests (inside Course Content) and then click on the post-test you wish to take. For more information, see Getting Started #3 (slides 5 – 8). (2) The post-test questions are taken directly from the homework. Since the post-tests are timed, you must complete the homework assignment before taking the post-test. They are timed!

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The lecture file is here

. 2. Excel Assignments: Five exercises (see pages 11 - 13) using Excel are assigned. There will be quizzes on these Exercises to establish your point score. They will be demonstrated in class prior to the quiz. Quizzes are in BBL (Blackboard Learn).

3. Tutorial Exercises: 20 tutorial exercises (see page 14) using the Hawkes Learning modules are assigned. These are an important part of the course grade. The modules will be registered online upon completion. Suggest you print out a “Certification” also.4. Exams: There will be three exams plus a comprehensive final exam. All exams will be closed book. For each exam, bring a formula sheet, any tables that apply, your student ID and ID number. Old exams to review are noted above.

Point Allocation: Exam #1 150 Exam #2 150

Exam #3 150 (Low exam of #1, #2, #3 will be thrown out) -150

Final exam (cumulative) 200 Tutorials (Hawkes Learning) 200 (10 points each)

Excel assignment quizzes 100 (20 points each) TOTAL 800

5. Grade Assignment: ≥ 90% = A ≥ 720 points≥ 80% = B ≥ 640 points≥ 70% = C ≥ 560 points≥ 60% = D ≥ 480 points

Below 60% = F < 480 points

6. A Statistics Lab. is available on campus for students seeking additional help. Hours will be posted on BBL. The purpose of the lab is to assist students to overcome difficulties they Dec. encounter in attempting statistics problems.The lab is located in BLB 131 = Go visit to see where it is located. Also the UNT Learning Center is located in Sage Hall 315 and is also available to work with you.

Comments regarding the stat lab1. The statistics lab is not available to aid students in taking post-test quizzes. Also note that the lab is Closed During Final Exam Week

2. (IMPORTANT) The stat lab is especially busy right before exams. There is not enough staff to handle a surge of students and so you Dec. not get the help you need. It is much better to visit the stat lab as homework questions come up and not wait until the last minute.

DEPARTMENT & COLLEGE POLICIES1. If you wish to register a complaint, you should first discuss your complaint with me.

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To further pursue your complaint contact Dr. Nicholas Evengelopoulos (course coordinator) and you can also: contact Dr. Mary Jones; ITDS Department Chair.

2. As a general rule NO MAKE-UP EXAMS will be given; if an emergency occurs - See me3. The University policy on Code of Conduct and Ethics is contained in the Student Guide book. You are responsible for knowing the information contained in this and all other official University publications.

4. Students with Disabilities: The College of Business Administration complies with the Americans with Disabilities Act in making reasonable accommodations for qualified students with disability. If you have an established disability as defined in the "Act" and would like to request accommodation, please see me as soon as possible.

5. Dates of drop deadlines, exams, final exams, etc., are published in the university catalog and schedule of classes. Please be sure you keep informed about these dates.

6. A grade of "I" will not be assigned except in rare circumstances. If you think you will not be able to complete the class satisfactorily, please drop the course. An “I” grade cannot be used to substitute your poor performance in class.

7. If a student is caught cheating, he or she will be immediately removed from the class with a "WF" grade. To be reinstated, the student must provide substantial evidence to the contrary in a hearing held in the Dean of Students Office, University of North Texas.

DSCI 2710 – 001: SYLLABUS: Fall - 2016The syllabus below is a tentative outline for the semester. It is meant to be a guide and several items are subject to change. Exams may be moved in time & will be announced in class. Certain topics may be stressed more or less as will be indicated in classroom coverage.

Week 1 Topics Sections in Text Sept. 01 Introduction to Statistics Chap. 1.1 thru 1.6 Frequency Distributions Chap. 2.1 Hawkes: Obtain access codeWeek 2 Sept. 08 Descriptive Graphs Chap. 2.2 thru 2.6

Descriptive Measures Chap. 3.1 thru 3.6

Week 3Sept. 15 Descriptive Measures cont. Chap. 3.1 thru 3.6

Trend & Seasonal Variation Chap. 4.1 thru

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Week 4Sept. 22 Index Numbers-CPI Chap. 4.10

REVIEW

Week 5Sept. 29 ** Exam #1 ** Descriptive Statistics and Time Series Ch. 1-4

Week 6Oct. 06 Probability Concepts Chap. 5.1 thru

5.4

Discrete Prob. Distribution Chap. 6.1 thru 6.2

Week 7Oct. 13 Binomial Distribution Chap. 6.3

Poisson Distribution Chap. 6.4

REVIEW Week 8Oct. 20 *** Exam #2 *** Chapters 5 and 6

Week 9Oct. 27 Continuous Prob. Dist. Chap. 7.1 thru 7.4

The Normal Curve Chap. 7.5 thru 7.7

Week 10Nov. 03 Inference & Sampling Chap. 8.1 & 8.2

Confidence Intervals: For the mean (σ known) Chap. 8.3

For the mean (σ unknown) Chap. 8.4

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Week 11Nov. 10 Determining Sample Size Chap. 8.5

REVIEW Week 12Nov. 17 *** Exam #3 *** -- Chapters 7 and 8

Week 13 Nov. 24 **********THANKSGIVING**********

Week 14Dec. 01 Quality Improvement Chap. 9.1 thru 9.4

Control Charts Chap 9.5Control Charts for Variables Chap. 9.6 Control Chart Patterns Chap. 9.6Control Charts for Attributes Chap. 9.7

Week 15

Dec. 08 REVIEW for FINALAll Hawkes Modules will close Dec. 08, 2016 @ 11:59 pm.

All Post Tests will close Dec. 12, 2016 @ 11:59 pm.

Week 16Dec. 15 **********FINAL***************

6:30 – 9: 20 PM: THURSDAYNote the change of time

In this Classroom BLB 080

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Taking Excel Quizzes

Be sure to go through the PowerPoint slides in Getting Started #6 (see page 2 in this syllabus).

• On the due date for this Excel assignment, or the day before the due date, you need to take the Excel quiz through Blackboard

Notes(1) These quizzes will not open until the scheduled time in the syllabus. Once you click on the Begin button, the clock is running for the assigned time allotted for the quiz. Therefore, get everything you need (e.g., hard copy of the Excel spreadsheets, calculator, textbook) BEFORE opening the quiz.

(2) I will announce in class when the Excel Quizzes are opened, will work them in class and note when they close. Once they are closed; there is no partial credit or further option to take the quiz. See planned schedule and write-ups on the following pages and summary schedule on p. 14.

Excel Assignments

Excel #1 --- Due Sept. 22

Retrieve the data for exercise # 3.78 (page 97) using data set EX3-78.xls. Ignore the questions in the exercise and answer the following questions: a. Produce two histograms, using the travel expenses for the Marketing Department and the travel expenses for the R&D Department.

b. Do you agree with the statement that: “The travel expenses for the Marketing Department rarely exceed $10,000? Why or why not.c. Determine the descriptive statistics using Excel's

Click on the quiz you wish to take

The Excel quizzes are here

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Data > Data Analysis > Descriptive Statisticsd. Give a reason why the distribution is skewed (if it is) and in which direction.

Be sure to use the Pearson measure of skewness, not the Excel measure of skewness.

Excel #2 --- Due Sept. 29

Retrieve the data for exercise # 4.50 (page 151) using data set EX4-50.xls. Ignore the questions in the textbook and answer the following questions: a. Using the Excel macros; what are the seasonal indexes and trend line? b. What are the cyclical components for the year 2008? c. What do you observe in the data?

Excel #3 --- Due Oct. 13

Use the binomial function to answer the following questions (there is no data set here): Suppose a shipment of 410 components contains 70 defective and 340 non-defective computer components. From the shipment you take a random sample of 20.When sampling with replacement (binomial), determine the probability of obtaining:

a. Exactly two defective components in the sample of 20. b. Four or more defective components in the sample of 20.

c. Four or less defective components in the sample of 20. d. Between one and four (inclusive) defective components. e. More than three defective components.

f. What are the mean and variance of this discrete random variable?

Enter 0 through 20 in column A and construct the entire distribution in column B using Excel’s BINOM.DIST function (explained on pages 233 and 234 in the textbook).

X P(x)0 0.xxxx 1 0.xxxx 2 0.xxxx

. .

. 20 0.xxxx

1.0000

Excel #4 --- Due Nov. 10

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Retrieve the data for exercise # 8.20 (page 311) using data set EX8-20.xls. a. Answer part (a) in Exercise 8.20 on page 311. Ignore the discussion regarding SPSS and MINITAB. In part (a) it is assumed from past experience that the population standard deviation is known and is equal to $11.60. b. Referring to part (a), what is the 80% Confidence Interval for the mean fee charged?

c. Suppose in part (a) that the population standard deviation is not known Now calculate the 95% confidence interval for the mean fee charged?

Excel #5 --- Due Dec. 08

Using data set EX9-29.xls (discussed in Exercise 9.29, page 362), construct the Xbar chart and R chart. Also, look for patterns in the Xbar chart. Does the process appear to be in control?

DUE DATES[All Hawkes Modules will Close Dec. 08, 2016 @ 11:59 pm]

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Hawkes Learning Systems: Business Statistics**Modules Receive Half Credit if Late**

Module Module - Name Due Date 1 1.2 Level of Measurement 09/04 2 3.1 Measures of Center 09/113 3.3 Constructing Samples 09/094 3.2a Measures of Dispersion 09/115 5.1 Discrete Random Variables 10/096 5.2 The Binomial Distribution 10/097 4.1 Classical Probability 10/028 4.3 Counting Rules 10/169 5.3 The Poisson Distribution 10/1610 6.2 Reading a Normal Curve Table 10/3011 6.4 Find the Value of z 10/3012 6.3 The Normal Distribution 11/0313 7.3 Sampling Distributions - Means 11/0614 8.3 Estimating Means: Sigma Known 11/0615 8.4 Estimating Means Sigma Unknown 11/1316 6.5 Find the Value of t 11/1317 13.1 R Charts 12/0418 13.4 Mean Charts using Range 12/0419 13.2 p Charts 12/0420 13.3 c Charts 12/04

EXCEL ASSIGNMENTS ONLINE POST-TESTS **Post Tests Close completely @ 11:59 pm; 12/12

Assignment # Due Date Chapter # Suggested Due Date**1 09/22 1 09/042 09/29 2 09/113 10/13 3 09/184 11/10 4 09/255 12/08 5 10/02

6 10/11 7 10/30

8 11/139 12/06

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Student Getting Started Directions – see www.hawkeslearning.com/ for helpTO PURCHASE THE SOFTWARE (an Access Code) ONLINE FOR YOUR

Excel Quizzes are taken on line using your Blackboard Learn to receive credit for your Excel Exercises; by the dates specified above. The dates shown above are the ending dates. Once past the due date; these are unavailable!

Please complete End of Chapter Post Tests on a timely basis. These are available on Blackboard Learn

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COURSE:

1. Go to www.hawkeslearning.com and choose G et your access code under Students. Phone HLS at 800-426-9538 for help

2. Next, choose Purchase an Access Code.3. Type in the school name and select “continue.” Select an access code

for “Statistics,” click “add,” and proceed to your cart for checkout. 4. Choose pay with Credit Card.5. You will be taken to a secure site, where you will be asked to enter your

credit card information.  Please note that the address information MUST match the billing address of the credit card.

6. After your credit card information has been verified, you will be taken to a page where you will request an Access Code by entering your name, school, and email address.  Upon submitting the Access Code request, your Access Code will be emailed to you as well as displayed on the screen.

WHEN YOU HAVE AN ACCESS CODE - TO CREATE AN ONLINE WEB PLATFORM ACCOUNT:

1. Go to learn.hawkeslearning.com and select “Create an Account.”2. Paste your access code into Step 1, and follow the steps for account creation.3. You can visit the website from any internet connected computer to view your course

and complete assignments by logging in with your email address and password.

TO ENTER THE SOFTWARE AND SAVE YOUR ACCESS CODE : 1. Double-click on the icon on your Desktop (or go to Start, Programs, Hawkes

Learning Systems).2. Enter your access code when prompted.  You may type it, paste it, or load it

from a flash drive (if you saved it from e-mail) by clicking the “F1-Load From Disk” option and browsing to the path where you saved it.  If you type or paste your access code, you will be prompted to save it.  Save your access code to a flash drive to avoid typing it each time.

● The last nine slides in Getting Started #2 (see page 2 in the syllabus) discuss how to

● Late certification is accepted but at a 50% penalty.

No late Hawkes assignments will be counted after Dec. 08 @ 11:59 pm

Assigned Homework DSCI 2710Prior to the due date, complete the homework problems assigned below. Then log in to Blackboard Learn and complete the chapter post-test located under the “Homework Post Test” button. The post

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test questions ask about the assigned problems. For instance, the post-test might ask what was the solution to question #2? The post tests are timed, so be sure you have completed all of the assigned work before beginning the post-test and be sure you have all of the solution material in front of you. The first time you take the post-test, your score will be counted so be sure you are ready when you begin.

Chapter 1Exercises: 1.1 through 1.5, 1.21, 1.25

Chapter 2Exercises: 2.1, 2.2, 2.5, 2.8 (a,b,c), 2.10 (a,b,c,d), 2.11 (a,b,c,d), 2.14, 2.15,2.20 (uses a data set), 2.22 (uses a data set), 2.27, 2.29, 2.31, 2.32

Chapter 3Exercises: 3.1, 3.3, 3.4, 3.6, 3.8 (uses a data set), 3.9 (uses a data set), 3.13, 3.15, 3.16, 3.18, 3.24, 3.25, 3.27 (a,b,c,d), 3.28, 3.31 (uses a data set), 3.34, 3.37, 3.38, 3.41, 3.42, 3.44 (uses a data set)

Chapter 4Exercises: 4.2, 4.4, 4.5, 4.7, 4.12, 4.15 (uses a data set), 4.17, 4.19, 4.21, 4.24, 4.29, 4.30, 4.34 (uses a data set), 4.35, 4.36, 4.39, 4.40, 4.49 (uses a data set), 4.50 (uses a data set), 4.63, 4.64, 4.65, 4.67, 4.68, 4.71

Chapter 5Exercises: 5.1, 5.2, 5.7, 5.8, 5.9, 5.11, 5.12, 5.13, 5.16, 5.18, 5.22, 5.25, 5.28, 5.29, 5.31

Chapter 6Exercises: 6.1, 6.3, 6.4, 6.6, 6.7, 6.9, 6.11, 6.12, 6.15, 6.20 through 6.24, 6.26, 6.27, 6.30, 6.31, 6.34 through 6.37, 6.39, 6.41, 6.42, 6.45, 6.46, 6.49, 6.50, 6.53

Chapter 7Exercises: 7.1 through 7.8, 7.11 through 7.18, 7.22

Chapter 8Exercises: 8.1, 8.2, 8.3, 8.5, 8.6, 8.7, 8.10 through 8.18, 8.22, 8.23, 8.25, 8.26, 8.27, 8.28, 8.30, 8.34, 8.35, 8.37, 8.39, 8.40, 8.41

Chapter 9Exercises: 9.2 through 9.7, [Chapter 2: 2.34], 9.9, 9.11, 9.15, 9.21, 9.22 (a,b), 9.26, 9.29 (uses a data set), 9.30 (uses a data set), 9.33 through 9.

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