s1. global investment activity: where in the cycle? - cbre.kz · ** london, paris, stockholm,...

S1. Global Investment Activity: Where in the Cycle?

228 193

110 140 119

184 159

209 175

245 229

174 186

82

92

71

97 90

137

130

171

137

40 45

33

40

37

46

50

61

50

72

41

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

H1 2007 H2 2007 H1 2011 H2 2011 H1 2012 H2 2012 H1 2013 H2 2013 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015

Americas EMEA Asia Pacific

Global Commercial Real Estate Investment

$US Billion

By Region

Source: CBRE Research, Real Capital Analytics

-

30

60

90

120

150

180

210

240

270

H12007

H22007

H12008

H22008

H12009

H22009

H12010

H22010

H12011

H22011

H12012

H22012

H12013

H22013

H12014

H22014

H12015

Ты

сячи

Americas EMEA Asia Pacific



$US Billion

By Region

How Close to the Peak of the Investment Market?

Global Investment Activity By Region on a 6-monthly basis


S2. The State of the Global Economy

The State of the Global Economy Is the market momentum about to come to a halt?

Source: CBRE Research

-6,0

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Emerging Markets Advanced Economies World

World Growth is Sluggish, But on Track

Annual GDP growth, %

Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

% US Policy Rate Eurozone Policy Rate UK Policy Rate

Policy Rates Will Rise Very Slowly

Source: Oxford Economics, CBRE Research

S3. Sector Analysis: Changing Investor Preferences, or a Natural Evolution?

10

Global Investment Market: Sector Distribution


2007 v H1 2015

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 H1 2015 2013 2014 H1 2015 2013 2014 H1 2015

Office Retail Industrial Hotel Other


Share of the Total

By Sector


AsiaPac Americas EMEA

S4. Global Real Estate Values and Pricing

All Property, Annual Growth Rate

CBRE Global Capital Value Indices

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

20

04

Q2

20

05

Q2

20

06

Q2

20

07

Q2

20

08

Q2

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q2

20

11

Q2

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q2

20

14

Q2

20

15

Q2

Asia Pacific

Americas

EMEA


10,0

8,0

6,0

4,0

2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

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Tokyo

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Prime Office Yield 10-year Government Bond Spread

Global Real Estate-Bond Yield Gap

Prime office yield (net) relative to 10-year government bond, Q2 2015

(%)

Source: CBRE Research, Macrobond

Asia North America Pacific Europe

S5. Top Destinations of Capital

Key Destinations: Top 20 Markets and their Respective Rankings by Total CRE Investment


Key Destinations of Capital: Top 20 Cities in H1 2015


By Total Investment By International Capital Flows Only

$US Billion

S6. Three Trends US Investors Should be Watching

19

US Gateway Markets* Top European Markets**

Rise of ‘Permanent’ Capital: International Capital Flows

* New York, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago, San Francisco and Los Angeles

** London, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg and Munich


6%

34%

0% 6% 9%

16% 16%

32%

11%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H12015

Other REITs / SWFs

3% 8% 7% 4%

13% 20%

25%

13% 25%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 H12015

S7. Sources of Capital: The Tidal Wave of Cross-border Capital

8% 9% 10% 23% 24%

33% 41% 44% 48%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2013 2014 H1 2015 2013 2014 H1 2015 2013 2014 H1 2015

Domestic International

Americas


Share of the Total

By Buyer Origin


Asia Pacific EMEA

Global Capital Flows

Cross-Regional Capital Flows reached $67.5 billion in H1 2015, a

31% increase on H1 2014


* All commercial real estate and hotels, including multi-family sector in the North America

LONDON

Asia

LONDON

Pacific

Middle East

South America

Europe

LONDON

25.7

1.0

5.8

Africa

6.2

0.6

6.6

2.4

0.6 3.6 0.1

2.4

6.0

2.6 0.7

1.9 0.3

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

North America

Buyer Origin Key

(w/ total outbound capital, USD)

• Asia $16.5B

• Africa 0$0.8B

• Europe $6.4B

• Middle East $11.5B

• North America $28.8B

• Pacific 0$2.9B

• South America0 $0.6B

Top Sources of Cross-border Capital in Global CRE


H1 2015

S8. New Sources of Asian Capital

High Net Worth Wealth in Asia Pacific

Source: Capgemini Financial Services Analysis, 2015

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

12,0

14,0

16,0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$US Billion

S9. Outlook – Market Opportunities

Outlook and Market Opportunities


s1. global investment activity: where in the cycle? - cbre.kz · ** london, paris, stockholm,...

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