S U G A R R U S H 10

Currency Markets outlook

for the EU Sugar Industry

Eddie Tofpik

Head of Foreign Exchange

Member of the Society of Technical Analysts

Market Technicians Association (affiliate)

ACI-UK Member

Geneva April 2016

Welcome to Geneva

1st one to ask for itcan have it

A Major Currency First

This is what I work with on a

daily basis

in EURUSD

a very messy Chart

Lets make it a little

simpler

so we can see

how I work

Start with just EURUSD

add some Moving Averages Note how some act as support & resistance

Add in significant lowsand highs. Now you can see were getting somewhere.

Now

some Longer Term Fibonacci's

..some Medium Term Fibonaccis

now Short Term Fibs

You can now see some significant

Support and not much Resistance.

but its not really going higher.

If it doeswhere could it go to?

Bullish Andrews Pitchfork

Note the angle of attack.

Bullish Schiff Pitchfork Note the Support from the Middle Tine.

So what does this all tell us

So what does this all tell us

My clients horizon is usually a month or so

ahead (though I do look longer term).

this is what I can see now

X (approx 1.1475) marks Target

for the Halfway Hesitation higher

basically achieved. Circle is a

key crossover day (18th 20th Apr)

watch for volatility then

Very recently theres been a lot of

indecision (another Bullish

Hesitation perhaps??) but the

Trend is for higher prices with

resistance at 1.1432, 1.1453,

1.1495 & then nothing really till

1.1637 & 1.1711.

Support is at 1.1325, 1.1263,

1.1211, 1.1174 but best within

1.1136 1.1125. If we go below

this then the whole bullish notion

needs reconsideration.

I pause now for any questions

Now you have seen how I work on

EURUSD

what about some others?

Now you have seen how I work on

EURUSD

what about some others?

USDDZD?

add some Moving Averages Note the Bullish Golden Cross & higher

subsequent actionMAs now turning Down.

add Fibs & Uptrends

and now

a Bullish Andrews Pitchfork

Prices are testing lower and have

closed (partway) below the key

50% Fib at 107.83. Further support

is at 107.12 but the best is a

dynamic band between 106.66

105.86. Closes below this and the

whole bullish idea needs review.

Nothing supportive till 105 area.

If prices close back over the 50%

Fib (107.83) then weve resistance

at 108.25, 108.53, 108.62, 108.97,

109.18 (a small Downtrend though

I havent drawn it) & then nothing

till over 110.

I pause now for any questions

EURUSD & USDDZD

Lets look at some

others

EURUSD & USDDZD

Lets look at some

others

USDRUB

Straight in with MAs. Note the recent

(indecisive) action around the Long MA.

Nextthe Fibs. Note the Medium Term

50% Fib at 67.3950 and the (indecisive)

action around there as well.

Other Fibs & a Longer Term Bullish Sciff

Pitchforknote the Lower Tine support at

64.0700.

Markets currently indecisive. It

wishes to try down to the Lower

Tine (64.0732) but Long MA

(68.1986) & 50% Fib (67.3950)

attrition is causing indecision.

Neither is there impetus for a try

higher (yet). MAs turning down

& another key 50% Fib at 73.3615.

I pause now for any questions

EURUSD, USDDZD,

USDRUB

now its

EURUSD, USDDZD,

USDRUB

now its

USDKES

Straight in with the Fibsand youll

notice one thing straight away.

Bow Tie Formationgood exit but

poor approach. 29th Mar 5th Apr.

Nearby Fibs gives lots of overhead

resistance as well as the MAs

Longer Term Fibs give support

and possible downside targets.

Add in lots of significant lows/highs

as support (& some resistance)

Finally,,,

the rising Long Term Uptrend.

With the 1) the Bow Tie, 2) MAs being

above the market plus 3) were moving

lower away from the recent 50% Fib

103.59, it seems likely that we will see

prices lower.

Initial target area may be 99.83 100.57

support. Lower & there may be sell

stops pushing down to 98.11 but best

support between 97.30 97.51. After

that, the key is the Long Term 50% Fib

(94.36) & Uptrend (currently 94.53).

Topside, prices need to overcome ALL

the MAs plus the key recent 50% Fib at

103.59. To maintain the bullish thread,

prices soon thereafter would need to

test the 2015 & 2014 highsotherwise

sidewaysperhaps.

I pause now for any questions

I am mindful that time

is short

so here is the final bit!

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+44 20 7390 2952 (24 Hours)

eddie.tofpik@admisi.com

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