rv 2014: beyond mobility: corridor planning for the bigger picture by eric engstrom
DESCRIPTION
Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture AICP CM 1.5 Transit can do more than move people and generate revenue. More and more, cities are investing in transit to transform their communities and deliver on more expansive city-building objectives. Traditional transit goals are expanding to address the promise of livable communities, environmental stewardship, economic development and improved public health. Hear how two cities -- Seattle and Portland -- are shaping development scale and character with transit investment. Both cities are using parcel-based, pro forma-based tools to quantify the potential impact of transit projects. Join us for an interactive discussion about the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Hear their stories and learn how to evaluate your own projects against a broader set of goals using technical and market-based analysis. Moderator: Catherine Ciarlo, AICP, Senior Project Manager, CH2M Hill, Portland, Oregon Katherine Idziorek, AICP, LEED AP ND, Urban Designer, VIA Architecture, Seattle, Washington Antonio Gomez-Palacio, Principal, DIALOG, Toronto, Ontario Eric Engstrom, Principal Planner, City of Portland, Bureau of Planning & Sustainability, Portland, OregonTRANSCRIPT
Beyond Mobility Planning for the Bigger Picture
Eric Engstrom, AICP City of Portland, OR Rail~Volu>on 2014
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Expected Growth by 2035:
• 122,000 more households
• 140,000 projected new jobs
Comprehensive Plan
Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns
Default Growth Scenario Corridor Growth Scenario Hubs Growth Scenario
Comparing Different Growth Pa:erns
What makes a city healthy?
Safety
Basic Public Services
Social Connections Businesses & Amenities
Active Transportation Quality Housing
Healthy Food Parks & Nature
Watershed Health
Performance Measures Complete Neighborhoods Tree Canopy
Access to Frequent Transit Access to Family Friendly
Bike Network Watershed Health
Housing Mix Vehicle Miles Traveled Housing Affordability Mode Split Risk of Displacement/
Gentrification Carbon/GHG Emissions
Parks Access
City Shaping Tool
City Shaping Tool
Distribu>on of New Housing (2010-‐2035)
Comp Plan Context – Form
Growth Strategy
What is the streetcar predic-ve model?
An analy>cal tool to predict real estate development that would be s>mulated by streetcar and related investments.
What the model tells us… 1. Magnitude of new development
s>mulated by public investment 2. How local regula>ons affect
development feasibility 3. Es>mated fiscal and economic
benefits of development
About the PredicHve Model
• Considers ownership paSerns, zoning paSerns and codes, property values, local market data, and applica>on of suppor>ve public policy. • Models individual pro-‐forma decisions that developers make • Spreadsheet-‐based • Developed by Johnson Economics • Peer reviewed • Requires economic exper>se to run
About the PredicHve Model
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT MODULE
PREDICTED MAGNITUDE AND FORM OF DEVELPOMENT
SUPPORTABLE VALUE
CURRENT VALUE
PRICING
COST
RETURN ZONING
PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT/ REDEVELOPMENT
RESIDUAL PROPERTY VALUE MODULE
Research on cause and effect is limited
User inputs…
User inputs…
10 Study Areas
9.5%
2.2%
1.0% 0.8%
0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Macadam Foster Sandy MLK Gateway Belmont 82nd Broadway
Average Change in RMV w. Streetcar Rela>ve to Baseline (Change as a % of present RMV)
