rv 2014: beyond mobility: corridor planning for the bigger picture by katherine idziorek
DESCRIPTION
Beyond Mobility: Corridor Planning for the Bigger Picture AICP CM 1.5 Transit can do more than move people and generate revenue. More and more, cities are investing in transit to transform their communities and deliver on more expansive city-building objectives. Traditional transit goals are expanding to address the promise of livable communities, environmental stewardship, economic development and improved public health. Hear how two cities -- Seattle and Portland -- are shaping development scale and character with transit investment. Both cities are using parcel-based, pro forma-based tools to quantify the potential impact of transit projects. Join us for an interactive discussion about the capabilities and limitations of these tools. Hear their stories and learn how to evaluate your own projects against a broader set of goals using technical and market-based analysis. Moderator: Catherine Ciarlo, AICP, Senior Project Manager, CH2M Hill, Portland, Oregon Katherine Idziorek, AICP, LEED AP ND, Urban Designer, VIA Architecture, Seattle, Washington Antonio Gomez-Palacio, Principal, DIALOG, Toronto, Ontario Eric Engstrom, Principal Planner, City of Portland, Bureau of Planning & Sustainability, Portland, OregonTRANSCRIPT
DEVELOPMENTPROPENSITYMETHODOLOGY& ANALYSIS
TRANSIT EXPANSION STUDYBALLARD TO
DOWNTOWN SEATTLE
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
PROJECT BACKGROUND
Elliott Bay Downtown Seattle
Ballard*
*
Project Study Area
» Level 2 analysis
» Partnership between Sound Transit (ST) and the Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT)
» Outcomes: Support Seattle
Transit Master Plan
Inform Sound Transit Board decisions
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
LAND USE + TRANSIT INTEGRATION ANALYSIS
GOALS » Support sustainable urban growth by:
Supporting economic and transit-oriented development in the corridor
Supporting the development of compact and sustainable communities
A B CA CB D E
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
» “4Ds” + P
Density
Design
Diversity
Destinations
MEASURE: OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
jobs and people.
+ Development
Propensity: the art and science of anticipating future development
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW
DISCOVERYDevelop scenarios and apply filters
Test outcomes
OUTPUT
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
DISCOVERY
Understand land use within walkshedsGather readily-available King County Assessor’s data at the parcel level
1
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
APPLY FILTERS
Understand land use within walkshedsGather readily-available King County Assessor’s data at the parcel level
1
Create key filters to identify which parcels are likely to redevelop in the future
2
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND VALUES
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
SCENARIO 2:HCT investment
SCENARIO 3:HCT investment +
Station-area upzone
SCENARIO 1:Existing
conditions
Estimate the impact on land value that HCT service and a potential rezone may have on parcels within the walksheds3
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
SCENARIO 1
» Scenario 1: Existing conditions - no transit investment, no upzone jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
Corridor ID: A B CA CB D E
HCT Tech-nology:
Tunnel/Elevated Light Rail
Elevated Light Rail
At-Grade Light Rail or Street-
car
At-Grade Light Rail or Street-
car
Tunnel Light Rail
At-Grade Streetcar
Quality of Transit: % Impact on Land Value 45% 36% 29% 29% 45% 24%
Criteria Char-acteristics
Criteria Maximum
Weight Corridor ScoringPotential Travel Time Savings
4 4 4 3 3 4 2
Reliability/On-Time Perfor-mance
3 3 3 2 2 3 1.5
Passenger Comfort/Safety
2 2 1 1 1 2 1
Perception of Permanence 2 2 2 1 1 2 1
Station TypeElevated Sta-tions 1 1
Surface Sta-tions 2 2 2 2
Tunnel Stations 3 3 3
Potential for Rezone 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 1 0.5
Total Score 15 12 9.5 9.5 15 8
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
SCENARIO 2: TRANSIT INVESTMENT
» Adjusted to reflect land value lift as a result of transit investment
» Increase in rents translated into land value increase
TRANSIT QUALITY INFLUENCE ON LAND VALUES
Weighting range:Tunnel/elevated LRT = 45% (high) to At-grade streetcar = 24% (low)
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
jobs and people.jobs and people.
jobs and people.jobs and people.
SCENARIO 3: TRANSIT INVESTMENT + UPZONE
» Five geographies reflect differences in land value across neighborhoods
» “One-step” zoning modification
» Increased potential for density has positive impact on land value
» Additional FAR allows for larger buildings that support more jobs and house more people
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
ESTIMATE POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH
developmentcapacity (FAR)
#potential residents
#potential employees
% res x sf/resident
+% emp x sf/employee
( )x =
Estimate the growth of population and employment for each alternative4
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
OUTPUT
EMPLOYMENTD D
POPULATION
Potential employment capacity increase
on parcels likely to redevelop (# jobs)
4-500
501 - 1000
1001 - 1500
1501 - 2000
2001 - 2500
2501 - 3000
Potential residential capacity increase
on parcels likely to redevelop (# residents)
3-200
201 - 400
401 - 600
601- 800
801 - 1000
1001 - 1016
Transit investment & upzone
Transit investment
Current conditions
Transit investment & upzone
Transit investment
Current conditions
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
OUTPUTA B CA CB D E
A B CA CB D E
Scenarios 2 & 3: Residential growth beyond baseline
HCT investment & upzone
HCT investment+3,300
+1,900
+3,100
+1,600
+2,400
+800
+3,000
+800
+3,300
+1,900
+2,900
+1,300
DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS
A B CA CB D E
OUTPUT
A B CA CB D E
Scenarios 2 & 3: Employment growth beyond baseline
HCT investment & upzone
HCT investment+2,500
+10,900+2,300
+6,900+2,100
+5,400
+2,200
+5,400
+3,000
+4,600
+1,600
+8,200