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ISSUE: 039

01ST JUNE, 2019

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

Disclaimer: Karvy Stock Broking Limited [KSBL] is registered as a research analyst with SEBI (Registration No INZ000172733). KSBL is also a SEBI registered Stock Broker, Depository Participant, Portfolio Manager and also distributes financial products. The subsidiaries and group companies including associates of KSBL provide services as Registrars and Share Transfer Agents, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, financial consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data management, data analytics, market research, solar power, film distribution and production, profiling and related services. Therefore associates of KSBL are likely to have business relations with most of the companies whose securities are traded on the exchange platform. The information and views presented in this report are prepared by Karvy Stock Broking Limited and are subject to change without any notice. 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Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned in this report, investors may please note that neither KSBL nor any associate companies of KSBL accepts any liability arising from the use of information and views mentioned in this report. Investors are advised to see Risk Disclosure Document to understand the risks associated before investing in the securities markets. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Associates of KSBL might have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company or might have been mandated by the subject company for any other assignment in the past twelve months. Associates of KSBL might have received compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months or for services rendered as Registrar and Share Transfer Agent, Commodity Broker, Currency and forex broker, merchant banker and underwriter, Investment Advisory services, insurance repository services, consultancy and advisory services, realty services, data processing, profiling and related services or in any other capacity.KSBL encourages independence in research report preparation and strives to minimize conflict in preparation of research report. Compensation of KSBL’s Research Analyst(s) is not based on any specific merchant banking, investment banking or brokerage service transactions. KSBL generally prohibits its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their relatives from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover.KSBL or its associates collectively or Research Analysts do not own 1% or more of the equity securities of the Company mentioned in the report as of the last day of the month preceding the publication of the research report. KSBL or its analysts did not receive any compensation or other benefits from the companies mentioned in the report or third party in connection with preparation of the research report and have no financial interest in the subject company mentioned in this report. Accordingly, neither KSBL nor Research Analysts have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this report. It is confirmed that KSBL and Research Analysts, primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein of this report have not received any compensation from the subject company mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months. It is confirmed that Research Analyst did not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report. KSBL may have issued other reports that are inconsistent with and reach different conclusion from the information presented in this report. Neither the Research Analysts nor KSBL have been engaged in market making activity for the companies mentioned in the report. We submit that no material disciplinary action has been taken on KSBL by any Regulatory Authority impacting Equity Research Analyst activities.

Macro Indicators show that India’s consumption is shrinking

Consumers have evidenced to be drivers for the Indian economy in the last 3 years, supporting demand

for goods and services with their spending whilst the investment leg of the economy has stalled.

However, macro indicators within the last 5 months indicate that private consumption expenditure is

losing steam. Passenger vehicle (PV) sales have registered contraction for the 5 consecutive months

to March 2019. Two-wheeler sales are in negative territory for four months. The consumer durables leg

of the Index of Industrial Production has grown by less than 2% since November 2018. Air passenger

traffic that was booming at 20% and growth rates till September 2018 have lost momentum to register

barely any growth in March. An analysis of India Inc’s results for the fourth quarter of FY19 brings

further proof of a demand slowdown that’s currently threatening profit recovery for listed firms.

FMCG giants like Hindustan Unilever have commented on slowing rural as well as urban consumption

that has led to a marked slowdown in volume growth.

It is true that a part of the consumption slowdown indicated by the economic indicators is the result

of onetime factors. For example, regulative disruption for the future transition directly from BS IV to

BS VI norms on top of a spike in insurance prices has curtailed PV production and sales in recent

months. Aviation has also been hit by Jet Airways’ monetary woes that has taken substantial capability

off the air and sent airfares soaring. However, there are additional serious factors underlying the

consumption retardation too. The structural collapse in agricultural crop prices that have damaged

rural incomes is already well-documented. However, the consumption cutbacks on consumer goods

and consumer staples in recent months recommend that the Indian middle class isn’t in a healthy

financial condition either. For middle-income earners, the support from the Seventh Pay Commission

that had delivered a lift to incomes in FY17 and FY18 has materially waned. The muted nominal GDP

growth of the last 3 years due to low inflation has curtailed the company’s top-line growth and muted

private sector wage spikes too. In the last six months, the NBFC liquidity crisis also worsened the

business surroundings and placed a spoke in the wheels of consumer finance, a giant driver for high-

ticket consumer purchases.

Overall, with consumption weakening, the new government can have its task cut out to sustain 7-7.5%

value growth. However, speaking on the sidelines, the economic agendas of political parties ignored

the spending retardation and took nominal income growth and middle-class prosperity for granted

and announced various income support schemes for BPL classes. Without a revival in consumption

expenditure and nominal value growth, going ahead with such transfers in India’s resource-constrained

budget may prove to be a herculean task.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-16

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Aditya Kistampally

Viplav Dhandhukia

Srinivas Krishnan Bobba

Vaishali Paruthi

Chetan K Waghray

Konpal Pali

Rahul Sharma

Sourabh Gilda

Akshaya Ravindra

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Veeresh Hiremath

Siddhesh Ghare

Rahul Chander

Ravi Pandey

Ravikanth P

Kushal Asthana

Arpit Chandna

Vinod J

Amit Kumar

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31/P, Karvy Millennium Towers, Nanakramguda, Financial District, Gachibowli, Hyderabad, Telangana-500032, India.

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- VIVEK RANJAN MISRAHead-Fundamental Research

EQUITY

Economy

• Narendra Modi was sworn in as the Prime Minister of India for the second successive term. At the swearing-in ceremony at Rashtrapati Bhavan, 24 Cabinet Ministers including Bharatiya Janata Party President Amit Shah were also administered the oath of office and secrecy by President Ram Nath Kovind.

• The RBI may continue to rely on open market operations and repo auctions to infuse liquidity into the banking system in addition to occasional use of foreign exchange swaps.

• Goods and Services Tax mop-up in May is likely to be lower than the record Rs. 1.139 Tn collected in April.

Power

• The National Company Law Tribunal rejected a settlement offer by Essar Power for its subsidiary Essar Power Jharkhand which is undergoing insolvency.

• Coal India Ltd’s consolidated net profit jumped over fourfold on year in the March quarter to Rs. 60.24 Bn and total revenue rose 7.5% to Rs. 285.46 Bn. During Jan-Mar, total expenditure including finance cost was down at Rs. 214.73 Bn from a year ago. Finance cost was flat on year at Rs. 1 Bn.

Telecommunication

• The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India floated a consultation paper to review inter-connection norms for fixed-line networks.

• Bharti Airtel: Q4FY19 ARPU increased 18.3% QoQ to Rs. 123 – the biggest jump since its listing. Company says that India customer base declined by only 16 lakh to 28.26 crore.

Banking

• Global ratings agency Fitch affirmed the long-issuer rating of STATE BANK OF INDIA, BANK OF BARODA, PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK, CANARA BANK, and BANK OF INDIA at ‘BBB-’.

• Export-Import Bank of India will raise up to $3 Bn (nearly Rs. 210 Bn) in bonds and loans through capital markets in FY20.

Information Technology

• Tata Consultancy Services Ltd through its cloud solution has helped US’ Wyoming Department of Workforce Services transform its unemployment insurance tax system. The solution is a fully modernised and scalable unemployment insurance platform that improves the way employers interact with the Wyoming state.

Financial Services

• Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services has defaulted on payment of interest on non-convertible debentures that were due on Thursday.

• The Serious Fraud Investigation Office filed its first charge sheet in the Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services case against 30 individuals and entities including C. Sivasankaran and nine former directors of IL&FS Financial Services on Thursday.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• Real GDP in the US expanded by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to 3.2% announced in the first estimate and matched the market expectation.

• US President Donald Trump has announced tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico in a bid to curb illegal immigration. In a tweet, Mr Trump said that from 10 June a 5% tariff would be imposed and would slowly rise until the Illegal Immigration problem is remedied.

• US International trade deficit widened to $72.1 Bn in April from $71.9 Bn in March. Exports of goods for April were $134.6 Bn, $5.9 Bn less than March exports. Imports of goods for April were $206.7 Bn, $5.6 Bn less than March imports.

TRENDSHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 39714.00 38961 39337 40107 40499 Up

NIFTY 11923.00 11698 11810 12037 12152 Up

NIFTYBANK 31375.00 30100 30738 31898 32421 Up

RELIANCE 1330.00 1288 1309 1347 1363 Up

HDFC 2183.00 2082 2132 2215 2248 Up

SBIN 353.00 335 344 362 371 Up

INFY 738.00 691 715 752 766 Up

ICICIBANK 424.00 401 412 437 451 Up

YESBANK 148.00 132 140 156 165 Down

TCS 2197.00 1982 2089 2254 2312 Up

AXISBANK 808.00 771 790 825 841 Up

HDFCBANK 2425.00 2308 2366 2475 2524 Up

LT 1558.00 1491 1524 1599 1640 Up

FORTHCOMING RESULTSCOMPANY NAME EVENT DATE/EX-DATE

ADVANCE LIFESTYLES LTD. Result 04-JUN-19

MAC HOTELS LTD. Result 05-Jun-19

RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE LTD. Result 07-Jun-19

RELIANCE POWER Result 07-Jun-19

AVADH SUGAR Dividend - Rs. - 3.0 03-Jun-19

YES BANK Final Dividend - Rs. - 2.0 03-JUN-19

COLPAL Interim Dividend - Rs. - 8.0 04-Jun-19

TATAPOWER Final Dividend - Rs. - 1.30 04-Jun-19

TCS Final Dividend - Rs. - 18.0 04-Jun-19

FDC Ltd. Buy Back of Shares 06-Jun-19

HINDPETRO Final Dividend - Rs. - 9.40 06-Jun-19

NATCOPHARM Interim Dividend - Rs. - 1.25 06-Jun-19

UFO

Interim Dividend - Rs. -

12.5/Special Dividend - Rs.

- 15.0

06-Jun-19

KSTREET - 01ST JUNE 2019 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

Source: Bloomberg

0.00

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NIFTY INDEX

SENSEX INDEX

SPBSMIP INDEX

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NIFTYJR INDEX

NSEMCAP INDEX

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2500.00

24-05-19 27-05-19 28-05-19 29-05-19 30-05-19

FII DII


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Sobha Ltd CMP Rs.545Target Price Rs.632Upside 16%

Investment Rationale

Sobha Limited is engaged in the construction and development of residential and commercial projects. The Company is also engaged in contractual projects. It has completed approximately 390 projects in both real estate and contract verticals with a total developed area of over 81.64 million square feet. Its residential projects include luxury and super luxury apartments, villas, row houses, plotted development and aspirational homes.

• Sobha aims to grow its business by2.5 times over a period of next 5 years. The company is aggressively looking to expand its portfolios across segment. In the Residential space it is focusing on the affordable housing segment and launching new projects.

• Sobha’s pre-sales improved from 3 million sq.ft. in FY17 to 4 million sq.ft. in FY19, with sales value of over Rs. 3125 Cr in FY19 supported by stable sales in core market of Bengaluru and improving sales momentum in Gurugram and Cochin.

• Sobha’s contractual division is focused on developing facilities for corporate entities like Infosys, Lulu Group, Biocon, Dell and HCL among others. It has executed 301 contractual projects across 48 msft and is currently executing 8.8 msft across 26 cities.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 10.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 554/380

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 51657/739

EPS (Rs.) 31.5

Dividend Yield (%) 1.2

Stock Exchange BSE

P/E CHART

Valuation

We expect Sobha to be a major beneficiary of post RERA scenario which has resulted in consolidation in real estate industry wherein reputed players backed by execution track record stand to gain market share from unorganized players. The current liquidity crisis will strengthen the position of large developers having minimal dependency on external funding for project completion. Our NAV model yields a per-share value of Rs. 790 and we have valued Sobha at 20% discount to NAV, resulting in a target price of Rs. 632.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY 19 FY 19 FY 20

Revenue 34421 42507 48391

Ebitda 7468 9171 10335

Ebitda margin(%) 21.7 21.6 21.4

Net Profit 2971 4052 4744

EPS(Rs) 31.5 43.0 50.3

RoE(%) 13.3 15.4 15.3

Pe(X) 17.3 12.7 10.9

56

24.6

15.0

4.4 Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60

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-18

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18

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Sobha Sensex

67.7

10.1

7.1

15.1 Promoter

FII

DII

Others

250

350

450

550

32,500

34,500

36,500

38,500

May

-18

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18

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Sensex (LHS) Cadila Healthcare (RHS)

56

24.6

15.0

4.4 Promoter

FIIs

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Others

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Sobha Sensex

67.7

10.1

7.1

15.1 Promoter

FII

DII

Others

250

350

450

550

32,500

34,500

36,500

38,500

May

-18

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BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Cadila Healthcare Ltd CMP Rs.264Target Price Rs.320Upside 24%

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 432/241

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 263/3762

EPS (Rs.) 17.8

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 14.4

Dividend Yield (%) -

Stock Exchange NSE

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY19 FY20 FY21

REVENUE 131,656 144,217 155,881

EBITDA 29,731 29,745 32,625

EBITDA(%) 22.6 20.6 20.9

PAT 18,488 15,089 18,213

EPS (Rs.) 18.1 14.7 17.8

RoE (%) 17.2 12.4 13.7

PE (x) 14.2 17.4 14.4

Investment Rationale• Domestic formulations to grow in double digit: Restructuring of domestic

operations to end in Q4 FY2019. Company’s endeavour is to improve productivity from Rs. 4.5 lakh PCPM to Rs. 6.5 lakh PCPM and outperformed industry by 1.25x. Improved productivity coupled with better revenue traction to aid margin improvement.

• US business to maintain tempo of new launches: Rivastigmine was launched wherein company is expected to gain 15-20% market share. Company is expected to launch 35 plus products in US markets in FY20. 10-12 products from this space would be decent sized products.

• Heinz distribution reach to be leveraged for the Wellness business: Distribution reach of Heinz in the FMCG space to complement Zydus Cadila in the pharma space. They plan to increase their distribution reach to 3.5-4 lakhs and manage cost savings of Rs. 300-Rs. 400 Mn in current year. The company would also have savings on trade spend and distribution margins. These initiatives would enable the company to grow by 10% and improve profitability.

Valuation

We downgrade our Revenues by 9.9%/9.7% in FY20E/FY21E due to major downgrade in US business. We increase our EBDITAM by 30 bps/90 bps to 20.6%/20.9% for FY20E/FY21E. We downgrade our EPS for FY20E/ FY21E by 22.1%/13.3% to Rs 14.7/ Rs 17.8 for FY20E/FY21E. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock with a price target of Rs. 320 based on 18x FY21E. Possible OAI status for Moraiya plant remains a major risk on the stock.

56

24.6

15.0

4.4 Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

60

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Sobha Sensex

67.7

10.1

7.1

15.1 Promoter

FII

DII

Others

250

350

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32,500

34,500

36,500

38,500

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56

24.6

15.0

4.4 Promoter

FIIs

DIIs

Others

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Sobha Sensex

67.7

10.1

7.1

15.1 Promoter

FII

DII

Others

250

350

450

550

32,500

34,500

36,500

38,500

May

-18

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EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Century Textile and Industries Ltd

CENTURYTEX has bounced well after taking support near cluster of moving averages on daily charts. Previously, the stock has seen trading in the range of 886-941 levels. The recent breakout in the stock has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts which enhanced our bullish view in the stock. The historical price action in the stock reflects that any meaningful dip in the stock may attract market participants. This helps stock to resume its up move. Prior to that, the stock has seen profit taking from swing high of 952 levels. This has dragged the stock to the low of 705.50 levels. Thereafter, the stock has bounced from the low and given “V” shape recovery on daily charts. This indicates strength in the stock. The stock has seen increase in deliverable quantity to trade quantity on daily chart. This indicates strong hands are accumulating the stock at current levels. On technical setup, the 14 period RSI is pointing northward given the positive crossover with signal line and is trading comfortably above signal line. The parabolic SAR has triggered fresh buy on daily charts that reflects uptrend in the stock will remain intact in near term. The recent development in the stock suggests that the stock is well placed to take its up move.

Infosys

INFY is our preferred bet amongst IT sector. The stock has been in the secular uptrend on the weekly charts making higher highs and higher lows. The stock has closed the previous week with a gain of nearly 4.03% outperforming the NIFTY IT index which gained around 3.79% during the said time frame. The stock has witnessed profit taking from its all time high near 773 levels and found support near its 100 DEMA moving average on the daily chart which is placed around 699 levels. The historical price action reflects that stock has respected the said Moving average and bounced well from the same. The bounce that the stock has seen from above said levels of 100 day moving average has seen higher volumes suggesting accumulation taking place in this counter. On the momentum oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is placed above the 9 period signal line on the daily as well as weekly charts and pointing northwards which suggests strength in the near term. The major support for the stock is seen around its short to medium term moving averages on the daily chart placed near 699-700 levels, breaching which it may find its next support around its long term moving average on the daily chart which also coincides with the swing support for the stock placed near 650 levels. The stock is trading above all of its major moving averages on daily and weekly charts indicating positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames.

STOCK CENTURYTEX

CMP 1020.60

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 1000

AVERAGE 940

STOP LOSS 880

TARGET 1 1140

TARGET 2 1170

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS

STOCK INFY

CMP 735.35

ACTION BUY

ENTRY 730

AVERAGE 680

STOP LOSS 625

TARGET 1 880

TARGET 2 900

TIME FRAME 6-9 MONTHS


EQUITY

Sentiment

Initiation 162

Stop Loss 168

Target 152

Lot Size 2300

Margin 72000

21-DEMA 165

Open Interest Shares 47083800

Change in OI 12279100

Cost of Carry (%) 5.05

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY IT (16160.65) traded on a positive note, settled with gains of nearly 3.83% on weekly closing basis indicating renewed buying interest in the index. On the stock front, all the major stocks ended in a green; TCS 7.42%, INFY 3.93%, TECHM 3.69%, NIITTECH 3.30%, HCLTECH 2.26%, WIPRO 1.25%, TATAELXSI 1.08% & OFSS 0.16% while MINDTREE -0.20% & INFIBEAM -0.54% closed in negative on a weekly closing basis. NIFTY IT index after placing a swing low near 15461 levels witnessed a gradual recovery in last few sessions. Technically, index found support above its 200-DEMA which is currently placed near 15138 levels and currently it is holding above its 21 & 50-DEMA placed near 15890 & 15850 levels respectively. On the momentum oscillator front, 14-pd RSI after witnessing bullish crossover of its signal line inching higher towards overbought territory indicating possibility of momentum to continue further in sessions to come. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 15850 levels followed by 15700 levels while on the higher side, 16250 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 16400-16500 levels. Going forward, index on sustaining above 16000 levels is likely to trade with positive bias between 16000-16500 levels.

NIFTY FINSE (13,479.80) has closed the week with a positive return of around 1.26% and outperformed Nifty last week where Nifty closed the week with a positive return of around 0.63%. The index is in uptrend and making higher high. The index is trading near its life time high of 13581.70 levels. The historical price action suggests that any meaningful dip in the index may attract market participants. The index has bounced well from the low of 12900 levels after giving gap up opening and bounce in the index has seen supportive volume formation on daily charts. Most of the stocks from the financial space were seen trading in green closed the week with decent return. The immediate support in the index comes around 13100 levels and below that are 12900 levels. The index may find resistance around 13600 levels and above that at 13750 levels. The stocks that closed the week with positive bias are BAJAJFINSV, EDELWEISS, HDFC, HDFCLIFE, ICICIPRULI, M&MFIN and PFC with a positive return of around 0.35%, 11.14%, 2.86%, 8.20%, 4.38%, 3.11% and 7.63% respectively. Whereas, the stocks like BHARTFIN, IBULHSGFIN closed the week in red and generated a negative return of around 3.08%, 1.27%. The stock specific action is expected from the sector in coming week. Holding our positive view in the index for the week and expect it to trade in the range of 12900- 13750 levels.

NIFTY AUTO (8,175.50) has underperformed the Nifty 50 index on week to week basis as it ended the week with losses of around 3.50%. After a decent recovery in the index from the lows of 7821 levels, the index tumbled and witnessed huge fall which was basically due to the plunge in heavyweight counters which fell from 2% to 5.50% on week to week basis. Except BOSCHLTD, all the major heavyweights ended the week in red indicating bears to take control in the counter. Technically, the index has plunged downside on the back of robust volumes indicating stiff resistance on the higher side. The immediate support for the index is placed around 8000 levels followed by the recent swing low of 7800-7820 levels, breaching which the index may trigger fresh short positions for the coming future. On the contrary, the resistance is pegged around 8400 levels followed by 8550-8600 levels which are the recent swing highs on the higher side. On oscillator front, the index has witnessed correction from the mean of the Bollinger band (20, 2) and is heading towards the lower band. Even the 14 period RSI is placed around 40-41 levels and is on the verge of giving a negative crossover suggesting further downside room in the counter. Going forward for the coming week, it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter as majority of the stocks have seen some correction and even the sales data would also be in the pipeline to look for in near future.

NIFTY BANK (31,375.40) underperformed the Nifty with a gain of 0.52% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.66%. During the last week, the index witnessed a consolidated movement in the range of 31230-31780 after a huge gap up and a stellar rally in view of the exit polls and election results in the prior week. During the week, Bank Nifty witnessed an upward biased consolidated movement in the range of 31230 and 31770 levels. It may continue to trade with a bullish bias until and unless 31200 levels are taken off from upside. On the earnings front, IDBI Bank reported its 10th consecutive quarterly loss in the March 2019 quarter. Loan-loss provisions jumped to Rs. 7,233 crore in the reporting quarter against Rs. 5,075 crore in the preceding quarter. Net interest income rose 76% year-on-year (YoY) to Rs.1, 609 crore in the reporting quarter, against Rs. 915 crore in the year-ago period. On the other hand, SBIN is hoping to capitalize on the country’s shadow banking crisis by building its mortgage and small business loan book as the non-banks are forced to pull back according to its Chairman Rajnish Kumar. On the stock front, YESBANK, RBLBANK, AXISBANK and HDFCBANK gained by 4.50%, 2.88%, 2.24% and 2.18% respectively during the week while PNB, BANKBARODA, INDUSINDBK and ICICIBANK lost by 8.67%, 2.84%, 2.54% and 2.03% respectively. As indicated by the derivatives data, Bank Nifty may face resistance at 31500 levels followed by 32000 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 31000 levels followed by 31500 levels

ASIAN PAINTS LIMITED: BUY ASIANPAINT (JUN FUTURE) | CMP: 1405.30 SECTOR: CD

ASIANPAINT in the week passed by closed with a gain of nearly 1.65% whereas benchmark index NIFTY INDIA CONSUMPTION closed around with a cut of around 0.82% outperforming the said index while the benchmark NIFTY 50 closed with a gain of 0.66% clearly indicating outperformance of the said stock. On the price chart, the stock has found support around 1300 levels and appears to resume its uptrend where its monthly 21-EMA moving average is also placed and reversed its downward trend from the highs of 1529.80 levels. The momentum indicators like 14 periods RSI on the daily charts is trading above its signal line indicating a bullish bias in the near term. On the derivative front, the stock has seen long build up in the last trading session and also on weekly basis. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate long position near 1406 levels for the higher target of 1440 levels keeping a stop loss below 1380 levels.

Sentiment

Initiation 1405

Stop Loss 1380

Target 1440

Lot Size 600

Margin 156000

21-DEMA 1377

Open Interest Shares 5426400

Change in OI -382200

Cost of Carry (%) -1.92

VEDANTA LIMITED: SELL VEDL (JUN FUTURE) | CMP: 161.15 SECTOR: METAL

VEDL is being in a secular downtrend placed below all its major moving averages on daily chart indicating inherent weakness in the counter. In the past week, it plunged over 2% on the back of robust volumes and has even underperformed its broader index on weekly basis suggesting bearishness in the counter. On daily chart, the stock has faced resistance from its recent swing high and witnessed reversal which was backed by notable increase in the volumes. On oscillator front, 14 period RSI has given a negative crossover and is trading near 43-45 levels suggesting further downside room in the counter. Even on the Bollinger band (20, 2) the stock has taken a stiff resistance from the mean and witnessed sell-off plunging towards its lower band affirming the negative sentiment in the counter. Hence, it is advisable to go short in the counter keeping a stop loss above its recent swing high around 168 levels for the potential downside of 152 levels in the coming future.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (11922.80): Indian equity benchmark index Nifty 50 closed at a record high after a stellar rally witnessed in view of the election results favouring NDA attaining a complete majority

in the prior week. However, the index was confined in a tight range of 11865-12030 during the week. The index rose by 0.66% amid subdued volatility witnessing buying on every dip. In the

current scenario, Nifty may trade with a bullish bias unless and until 11865 levels are taken off from upside and sustained. For the week ahead to watch, market participants may lay their

focus on Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (May) and Nikkei Services PMI (May) releasing on Jun 3rd and Jun 5th respectively. The index may also regain its volatility in view of the RBI’s

interest rate decision on Jun 6th. The markets will remain closed on Jun 5th on account of Eid-Ul-Fitr. On the derivatives front, Open interest data suggests that the index is likely to trade

in the range of 11700 to 12200 levels.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

TYPE CALL RATIO IN BANK NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of BANKNIFTY 06 JUN 31400 CE @ 214

SECOND LEG Sell 2 lot of BANKNIFTY 06 JUN 31700 CE @ 105

BEP Lower BEP 31404, Upper BEP 31996

MAX PROFIT 5920

MAX LOSS 80 below LBEP and Unlimited above UBEP

RATIONALE From last couple of sessions, index is inching higher and high, clocked a fresh high in the week passed by and underlying momentum indicates possibility of prices to scale further in an uncharted territory in sessions to come.

TYPE BUY CALL IN NIFTY

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of NIFTY 06 JUN 12000 CE @ 32

BEP 12032

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED ABOVE BEP

MAX LOSS 2400

RATIONALE Nifty index is scaling higher in an uncharted territory and underlying momentum indicates possibility of prices to scale further higher in sessions to come.

TYPE COVERED CALL IN MARICO

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of MARICO 27 JUN FUT @ 373

SECOND LEG Sell 1 lot of MARICO 27 JUN 380 CE @ 7.50

BEP 365.5

MAX PROFIT 37700

MAX LOSS Unlimited below BEP

STOP LOSS 358 (Spot Levels)

RATIONALE From last couple of sessions, stock price was consolidating above its 21-DEMA while in the last session, stock gained momentum with renewed buying interest in the counter indicating possibility of prices to scale higher in sessions to come.

TYPE BUY PUT IN VEDL

FIRST LEG Buy 1 lot of VEDL 27 JUN 155 PE @ 4.50

BEP 150.5

MAX PROFIT UNLIMITED BELOW BEP

MAX LOSS 10350

RATIONALE The stock has witnessed selling pressure with spurt in volume and stock is poised below its long term average. Also in the last session, stock witnessed rise in open interest with fall in price indicating short accumulation in the counter reaffirming underlying weakness in the counter.

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7KSTREET - 01ST JUNE 2019

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

BERGEPAINT 330.3 6.38 4035000 124.75

KSCL 548.35 12.52 1017000 38.09

CUMMINSIND 790.05 4.25 1450000 23.72

PFC 124.3 7.71 28594000 19.27

RAMCOCEM 816.1 0.21 1334000 14.64

UJJIVAN 362.45 4.38 3218000 14.2

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


TATAGLOBAL 244 3.87 10475000 -42.05

PEL 2222.95 1.08 2619000 -33.17

ENGINERSIN 121.6 1.33 6759000 -30.64

GAIL 361 5.66 9751000 -28.87

MRPL 63.3 0.56 4245000 -28.72

IDEA 13.95 8.56 3.97E+08 -28.31

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


VEDL 160.55 -2.04 47084000 35.28

REPCOHOME 402.8 -4.06 817000 25.46

HINDZINC 245.8 -2.77 6045000 17.92

PCJEWELLER 77.1 -26.15 13542000 11.67

GLENMARK 545.35 -2.44 4588000 10.82

NCC 97.75 -14.33 42896000 10.1

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


MINDTREE 977.9 -0.22 1078000 -44.05

DCBBANK 233.15 -0.21 3533000 -30.59

INDUSINDBK 1605.35 -2.64 8155000 -28.64

CGPOWER 35.45 -9.57 14148000 -27.85

BATAINDIA 1324.9 -1.11 1580000 -26.71

JINDALSTEL 160.05 -0.56 18477000 -26.49

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI

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COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold gained for second consecutive month during the week ended on 31st May 2019 on continued buying support. However, the market started the week on weaker note reacting to stronger dollar and global equity market. US President Donald Trump said in a news conference with Japanese President Shinzo Abe that he was “not ready to make a deal with China”. US consumer confidence improved to 134.1 from previous reading of 129.2 and market expectation of 130.1. US GDP for first quarter came at 3.1% against previous reading of 3.2% while goods trade deficit widened to USD -72.1 billion from USD -71.9 billion. Weekly unemployment claims increased by 215,000 from 212,000 of previous week. Global economic growth concern is lingering following no signs of immediate resolution to the ongoing trade tension between US and China. Departure of Theresa May as prime minister deepened fears about a chaotic exit for Britain from the European Union. Japanese Yen gained further after a renewed risk-aversion gripped the Asian markets on the reports that the US President Trump imposed new tariffs on Mexico, which intensified the global trade war fears. On domestic front, MCX gold futures surged to trade above Rs. 32000 per 10 grams tracking stronger international market as well as depreciation of Indian Rupee against US Dollar.

CRUDE OILGlobal crude oil prices noted the biggest monthly fall after US trump administration imposed tariffs on 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico from June 10 until illegal immigration is stopped. As per EIA, U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell less than expected last week, while gasoline stocks posted a hefty surprise build ahead of the Memorial Day long weekend as refiners boosted their rates to the highest in five months. Crude inventories fell 282,000 barrels in the week to May 24, compared with market’s expectations for a decrease of 857,000 barrels and American Petroleum Institute report of a 5.3 million-barrel draw. Separately, Saudi Arabia has raised production in May, but not by enough to compensate for lower Iranian exports which collapsed after the United States tightened the screw on Tehran. As per Reuter’s survey data, 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 30.17 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, the survey showed, down 60,000 bpd from April and the lowest OPEC total since 2015. Asia’s crude oil imports from Iran jumped to the highest in nine months in April, as buyers rushed to ship in purchases before their waivers from U.S. sanctions on Iran expired in May. Top buyers China, India, Japan and South Korea imported a total 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude from Iran in April, up 3.2% from the previous month to the highest since July. Recently, Iran has managed to export out about 400,000 bpd so far this month to Asia which is nearly half of the April’s export rate. And as US pressure looms over Iran, its effects are quite visible as exports are falling and Iran’s revenues are falling. Separately in June OPEC is also expected to extend its production cut deal till the end of this year to balance the global oil markets. Since, Iranian & Venezuelan supplies will not be a part of global supplies; OPEC could enact to increase the production to fill in the gaps. Hence, upcoming month would be a crucial month for dictating the direction to the prices as Russia has recently shown interest in extending production cuts.

BASE METALSBase metals traded on a flat to negative note for the last week of the month amid the on-going trade tensions and rising dollar strength given the revision in GDP data. Fall in China’s PMI on the last session made the prices to pick up weaker note. China has imported 7.54 million tons of bauxite from Indonesia during 2018, accounting for less than 10% of its total imports. Growing supplies from Guinea further offset the hopes of less ore exports from Indonesia, though it eased the ban from January 12, 2017. Social inventories of refined zinc across Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin extended their declines over the weekend as more cargoes moved from warehouses in Guangdong to eastern China. SMM data showed that inventories decreased by 21,500 tons from Monday May 20, and by 5,100 tons from Friday May 24, to stand at 137,300 tons as of Monday May 27. Global tin demand during January to March 2019 was 91.6 kt which was 1.9 per cent below the comparable period of 2018. Japanese consumption was 7.1 kt which was 12.2 per cent below the comparable total for January to March 2018. As per WBMS data, Global nickel market was in deficit of 23,200 tons in January to March 2019. Mine production over the period stood at 534,800 tons, 45,000 tons higher than the same period a year earlier, and Chinese smelter/refinery output rose on the year by 14, 000 tons. At Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Li Zhicong, aluminum consumption in India is expected to grow to 8.91 million tons, or 10% of the World’s consumption of copper and aluminum will increase to 3.3 million tons or 9%, and 6.5 million tons or 8%, respectively. Qinghai-based miner Huasheng Industry & Trade with an annualised capacity of 5000 tons of lead and 8000 tons of Zinc is likely to recover its production of lead and zinc concentrate from the start of last week after it suspended on weather issues at the end of November. Indonesia which stopped exports since 2017 resumed its contribution to China’s bauxite needs and rose considerably high over the past few months. The country’s shipments during first four months of 2019 grew by 176.4 percent on the year, pushing its overall total of bauxite shipped to China to 13 percent of its intake. Beijing reported a total of 9.77 million metric tons of bauxite ore were shipped into China during April, which was higher than March imports by 24.5% and up by 68.2% compared to Apr- 18. The global zinc market saw a deficit of 44,500 tonnes in March, compared with a surplus of 27,600 tonnes in February, as per the latest data from International Lead and Zinc Study Group. As per SMM survey, Chinese producers sold 34,300 tons of zinc oxide in April 2019, down 1.9% month on month and up 57.7% from a year ago. The sales in Shandong

province declined 8.1% from previous month to 11,300 tons. Producers in Hebei sold 10,400 tons of zinc oxide, increasing 3.6% from March. The sales in Jiangsu were 4,850 tons, down 4% from a month ago. .

COTTONCotton prices witnessed huge volatility during the week ending on 31st May due to change fundamentals. MCX near month cotton futures started to recover from the recent low of Rs.19950 per bales on account of short covering supported by firmness in global prices. Moreover, growing supply deficit concerns and forecast of delayed arrival of monsoon rainfall helped prices to remain higher during the week. Indian cotton market is running with supply shortage due to lower production and small carryover stocks and seeking cheaper import from overseas market. Considering the supply situation in India, about 25-30 lakh bales of arrivals out of the 315 lakh bales of production is expected to come to the market in upcoming months of year 2018-19. CCI holding about 10 lakh bales of cotton stocks out of which 3 lakh bales has been released so far while 1.93 lakh bales were reported at MCX warehouses. Cotton Corporation of India has been releasing its stocks on comparatively higher prices (Rs47000-48000 per candy) restricting major losses in domestic prices. However, prices lost most of the gains by end of the week due to surging selling pressure at futures platform. Projection of normal monsoon rainfall in IMD recent estimates weighed on the prices at futures platform. Moreover, intensified trade dispute between US and China also impacted market sentiments negatively. USDA released its weekly plating progress report showed about 57% of cotton planting activities were completed till 26th May against the 61% of prior year for corresponding period and 58% of five year average. In Texas, about 48% of cotton plating was finished till 26th May compare to 50% of prior year and 44% of five year average.

RUBBERGlobal rubber futures prices traded on positive note during the week ended on 31st May 2019 due to supportive gained in Shanghai futures rose sharply. Tightness in the physical market following stop in tapping due to unfavorable weather condition supported the futures to trade higher. ANRPC reported that world natural rubber production for the first quarter fell by 5.2% YoY 2.989 million tonnes due to extended wintering seasons and outbreak of new leaf fall disease in South Sumatra. In the month of April, China had imported 180,000 tonnes of rubber, which was higher by 14% YoY As per the Yunnan Natural rubber industry group, the main growing area in China was stopped tapping due to drought conditions and sharp increase in temperature. Thailand and Vietnam also suffer from same condition. As per the Yunnan Natural rubber industry group, the main growing area in China was stopped tapping due to drought conditions and sharp increase in temperature. Thailand and Vietnam also suffer from same condition. Malaysian rubber is likely to benefit from trade spat between US and China as increase in export tax in Chinese gloves may increase the demand of Malaysian gloves to the US.As per the ANRPC, the new policy implemented by the China on importing rubber will be affected by 50% of imports from Thailand and Vietnam. As per the Thailand Rubber Association, the country is unlikely to cut their exports immediately further delaying implementation of a supply cut. As per the Malaysian Gloves Manufacturing Association (MGMA), the global demand for rubber gloves was estimated at US $ 300 billion in 2019, up by 12% YoY. Malaysia is the largest producer and exporter of gloves in the world, accounting for 63% of the global supply of gloves (followed by Thailand 18%, China 10% and Indonesia 3%).Oil prices fell almost 4% to their lowest in over two months on a smaller-than-expected decline in U.S. crude inventories and fears of a global economic slowdown due to the U.S.-China trade war.

SOYBEAN Soybean futures traded down for most part of the week due to balanced supply outlook at domestic market. Higher production outlook and domestic and international market capped the excessive gains. However, CBOT soybean futures rose substantially due to slower planting progress in US. USDA released its planting progress report on 28th May showed 11% on soybean planting completed till 26th May compare to 44% of prior year for corresponding period and 35% of five years average. Most active July delivery futures traded at CBOT closed the day at 889 cent/bushel, higher by 1.95%. The Solvent Extractors Association of India has released its monthly data on meal export from India showed remarkable rise in oil meal export during marketing year 2018-19 on yearly basis. The overall export of oil meals during the year (2018-19) has revived and reported at 3,324,693 tons compared to 3,026,628 tons during the same period of last year (2017-18). Soybean Meal exported reported at 1,358,083 tons compare to 1,187,818 of prior year up by 14%. Similarly, Mustard seeds futures at NCDEX platform traded higher on improved demand outlook. Increased buying from government led agencies and surging seasonal demand of mustard seeds from pickle industry added positivity to prices at futures platform. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May rose 7.1 percent 1,688,422 tonnes from 1,576,442 tonnes shipped during April, according to independent inspection company AmSpec Agri Malaysia said on Friday. During Nov’18.-Apr.’19, Import of refined oil (RBD Palmolein) increased to 1,199,052 tons from 980,353 tons in same period of last year, however, Import of crude oil decreased and reported at 6,004,778 tons from 6,166,398 tons during the same period of last year.


GOLD

COMMODITIES

TRENDSHEET

Commodities 24-May 31-May % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52 Week High

52 Week Low% Change from

52 Week Low% Change from

52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 31530.0 32050.0 1.6% 34031.00 -5.82% 29268.00 9.51% 9%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 36384.0 36540.0 0.4% 41698.00 -12.37% 34981.00 4.46% 3%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 4071.0 3839.0 -5.7% 5669.00 -32.28% 2993.00 28.27% 62%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 180.3 173.7 -3.7% 358.70 -51.58% 170.70 1.76% 24%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 415.5 408.9 -1.6% 493.25 -17.10% 397.40 2.89% 5%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 126.4 124.5 -1.5% 171.60 -27.48% 123.80 0.53% 8%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 214.0 203.6 -4.8% 233.65 -12.86% 163.80 24.30% 6%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 862.8 840.8 -2.5% 1063.50 -20.94% 735.00 14.39% 34%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 145.7 142.6 -2.1% 167.80 -15.05% 124.75 14.27% 15%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3736.0 3698.0 -1.0% 3915.00 -5.54% 3149.00 17.43% 18%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 744.5 755.0 1.4% 784.00 -3.70% 713.60 5.80% 13%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3937.0 3955.0 0.5% 4244.00 -6.81% 3711.00 6.58% 12%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 507.6 518.3 2.1% 655.40 -20.92% 483.40 7.22% 15%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5802.0 5690.0 -1.9% 6300.00 -9.68% 3831.00 48.53% 21%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 7062.0 6950.0 -1.6% 7464.00 -6.89% 5958.00 16.65% 3%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 17710.0 17430.0 -1.6% 21000.00 -17.00% 15140.00 15.13% 35%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 7534.0 7380.0 -2.0% 7688.00 -4.01% 4186.00 76.30% 13%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 2287.8 2445.1 6.9% 2495.40 -2.02% 818.50 198.73% 70%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 1950.0 1962.0 0.6% 2162.00 -9.25% 1752.00 11.99% 29%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4419.0 4265.0 -3.5% 4869.50 -12.41% 3494.50 22.05% 25%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8856.0 8511.0 -3.9% 10510.00 -19.02% 7200.00 18.21% 30%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 21540.0 21720.0 0.8% 24280.00 -10.54% 19950.00 8.87% 26%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 2772.5 2749.0 -0.8% 2807.00 -2.07% 1325.00 107.47% 43%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1478.4 1280.0 -13.4% 1846.10 -30.66% 1106.00 15.73% 58%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS

NATURAL GAS

ZINC

• Gold MCX Aug is currently trading at 32188. During the previous week, it made a high of 32229

and low of 31600.

• The RSI is trading at 52.09. Moving average of 13 is at 32013 and 55 is at 31537.

• The trend is looking positive for the week.

Recommendations:

Gold MCX Aug: Buy at 32040-32060 TP 32450 SL 31890

• Natural Gas MCX June is currently trading at 173.30. During the previous week, it made a high

of 186 and low of 173.

• The RSI is trading at 37.76. Moving average of 13 is at 184.82 and 55 is at 213.64.

• The trend is looking negative for the week.

Recommendations:

Buy Lead May MCX at RS 125.50-125 TP 132 SL 122

• Zinc MCX June is currently trading at 207.05. During the week, it made a high of 212.60 and

low of 206.40.

• The RSI is trading at 50.88. Moving average of 13 is at 216.23 and 55 is at 195.29.

• The trend is looking negative for the week.

Recommendations:

Buy Copper June MCX at Rs 413-415 TP 430 SL 403


COMMODITIES

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX - CRUDE OIL CALENDAR SPREAD NYMEX – NATURAL GAS

NEWS DIGEST

• Solvent Extractor Association of India (SEA) released its meal export

data for the month of April showed soy meal export from India for

month of April, 2019 was reported at 12265 MT against the 68264 MT

of same moth during prior year.

• Government has released its production forecast for year 2018-

19 pegged total soybean production at 134.59 lakh tonnes against

the 109.81 lakh tonnes of prior year, higher by 23% y/y. Soybean

Processors Association of India ( SOPA) estimated soybean

production for year 2018-19 at 114.8 lakh tons against the 83.5 lakh

tons of prior year

• China’s Manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4 against the expectations

of 49.9 giving concerns for the metal prices and demand growth

from the top metal consumer.

• World crude steel production for the 64 countries reporting to the

World Steel Association was 156.7 million tonnes in April 2019, a 6.4%

increase compared to April 2018.

• Crude oil exports from Iraq’s southern ports on the Gulf have

risen to 3.454 million barrels per day (bpd) so far this month, two

oil officials told Reuters on Thursday. Exports from the southern

Basra oilfields were 3.354 million bpd in April and 3.254 million bpd

in March.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• The crude oil prices ended the week on a weaker note, as the fall that triggered because of a lower than expected inventory withdrawals, intensified after the US stoked global recession fears by slapping a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico from June 10 until illegal immigration is stopped. The tariff would gradually increase to 25% by Oct. 1

• Total crude arrivals into Asia for May closed at 24.81 million barrels per day (bpd), down from 26.73 million bpd last month, when refiners ramped up purchases ahead of tightening U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, as crude stock built up on the back of heavy refinery turnarounds.

• The Solvent Extractors Association of India has released its monthly data on meal export from India showed remarkable rise in oil meal export during marketing year 2018-19 on yearly basis. The overall export of oil meals during the year (2018-19) has revived and reported at 3,324,693 tons compared to 3,026,628 tons during the same period of last year (2017-18). Soybean Meal exported reported at 1,358,083 tons compare to 1,187,818 of prior year up by 14%.

• USDA released its weekly plating progress report showed about 57% of cotton planting activities were completed till 26th May against the 61% of prior year for corresponding period and 58% of five year average. In Texas, about 48% of cotton plating was finished till 26th May compare to 50% of prior year and 44% of five year average.

• US GDP for first quarter came at 3.1% against previous reading of 3.2% while goods trade deficit widened to USD -72.1 billion from USD -71.9 billion. Weekly unemployment claims increased by 215,000 from 212,000 of previous week. US Goods trade balance was little negative from -72.0 billion to -72.1 billion giving the sign of less exports.

• Cotton import in India is expected to increase substantially during year 2018-19 could cross the 30 lakh bales marks as per industry estimates. Cheaper availability of cotton in International market could cap the excessive gains in cotton prices in coming days.

• CCI holding about 10 lakh bales of cotton stocks out of which 3 lakh bales has been released so far while 1.93 lakh bales were reported at MCX warehouses. Cotton Corporation of India has been releasing its stocks on comparatively higher prices (Rs47000-48000 per candy) restricting major losses in domestic prices.

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COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 24-May 31-May % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1802.00 1781.00 -1.17%

Copper LME 3M 5962.50 5858.00 -1.75%

Lead LME 3M 1830.00 1799.00 -1.69%

Nickel LME 3M 12380.00 12095.00 -2.30%

Zinc LME 3M 2555.00 2559.00 0.16%

Gold CME June 1284.30 1288.00 0.29%

Silver CME May 14.53 14.28 -1.69%

WTI Crude oil CME June 59.02 56.41 -4.42%

Natural Gas CME May 2.60 2.56 -1.50%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 24-May 31-May % change

Soybean CBOT July 843.00 900.75 6.85%

Soy oil CBOT July 27.01 27.74 2.70%

CPO BMD June 2014.00 2071.00 2.83%

Cotton ICE July 68.31 69.35 1.52%

FUTURE PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 185575 212000 26425 14.24%

Zinc 101925 100800 -1125 -1.10%

Aluminium 1200800 1155025 -45775 -3.81%

Lead 71675 69700 -1975 -2.76%

Nickel 165564 158604 -6960 -4.20%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 172266 165439 -6827 -3.96%

Zinc 56320 59351 3031 5.38%

Aluminium 539202 507353 -31849 -5.91%

*Until Wednesday, (Chinese market was closed last week)

GLOBAL STOCK POSITION (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 31825 31648 -177 -0.56%

-13.42%

-5.94%

-4.84%

-3.90%

-3.83%

-3.48%

-2.55%

-2.13%

-2.04%

-1.93%

-1.59%

-1.58%

-1.73%

-1.54%

-1.02%

-0.85%

-0.85%

0.42%

0.46%

0.62%

0.84%

1.42%

1.65%

2.11%

6.88%

-15.00% -10.00% -5.00% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00%

Mentha Oil

Crude Oil

Zinc

Guar Gum

Natural Gas

Guar Seed

Nickel

Aluminum

Dhaniya

Castor Seed

Turmeric

Jeera

Copper

Lead

Soybean

Barley

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Silver

RM Seed

Wheat

Cotton

Soy Oil

Gold

CPO

Cardamom

China Trade Data

Previous Pct Year Pct Year Pct

April month change ago change to date change

mln T mln T mln T mln T

Imports:

Crude oil 43.73 39.34 11.2 39.46 10.8 164.9 8.9

Refined products

3.51 2.99 17.4 3.01 16.6 12.22 8.8

Fuel Oil No. 5-7

1.69 1.46 15.8 1.51 11.9 5.91 4.9

Natural gas 7.65 6.94 10.2 6.82 12.2 31.89 16.4

Exports:

Crude oil N/A 0.32 N/A 0.23 N/A 0.32 -72.9

Refined products

6.17 7.21 -14.4 5.12 20.5 22.61 16.4

Net Imports:

Crude oil N/A 39.02 N/A 39.23 N/A 164.58 9.5

Refined products

-2.66 -4.22 37.0 -2.11 -26.1 -10.39 -27.2

CRUDE OIL & REFINED PRODUCTS BASE METALS

Previous Pct Year Pct Year Pct

April month change ago change to date change

Imports: tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes

Unwrought copper 405,000 391,000 3.6 442,000 -8.4 1,585,000 -5.3

Copper ores

& concentrates 1,656,000 1,767,000 -6.3 1,553,000 6.6 7,243,000 16.7

Exports:

Unwrought aluminium

and products 498,000 546,000 -8.8 451,000 10.4 1,940,000 12.9


USD/INR

USDINR is currency trading at 69.68. During the week, it made a high of 69.99 and low of 69.34. The RSI is at 47.27. Moving average of 32 is at 70.48 and 55 is at 70.22. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend Buying at 69.60-69.50 TP 70.50 SL 69.00

EUR/INR

EURINR is currency trading at 77.67. During the week, it made a high of 78.08 and low of 77.56. The RSI is trading at 40.16. Moving average of 32 is at 79.77 and 55 is at 80.35. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, recommend selling at 78.50-78.40 TP 77.50 SL 79.00.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is currency trading at 87.60. During the week, it made a high of 88.54 and low of 87.57. The RSI is trading at 36.06. Moving average of 32 is at 91.01 and 55 is at 91.27. The trend is looking negative for the week. Hence, recommend selling at 88.00-88.10 TP 87.00 SL 88.50.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is currency trading at 64.01. During the week, it made a high of 64.30 and low of 63.34. The RSI is at 55.15. Moving average of 32 is at 63.45 and 55 is at 63.15. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommend Buying at 63.80-63.90 TP 65.00 SL 63.30.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

USD/INR ended the week at 69.68. Post election result the pair traded quite range bound. India’s April CPI food price inflation came at 1.1 % from 0.30 % in March. China’s offshore Yuan hit a fresh 2019 low as a fresh escalation in China-U.S. trade tensions hit sentiment, with each country raising tariffs on the other’s goods. The pair hit a high of 70.52 and a low of 69.21 in the month of May. Rupee tested its biggest gain in two months after exit poll results. It was a historic month of May for Indian markets as both Sensex and Nifty hit fresh record highs. Both Sensex and Nifty50 hit a record high in the month of May. This month month saw massive volatility in India VIX registering record highs but normalized after election results. Rupee was relatively stable as compared to Indian equities and saw a movement of about 70 paise for the whole month.DXY hit a high of 98.37 and a low of 97.03 in the month of May-2019. The Dollar Index made a multi month high in May. US dollar has been strengthening overall, as treasuries continue to attract a lot of money. A new two-year high was recorded on May 23 at 98.37 before it reversed. Concerns of a further escalation in the trade conflict between the United States and China prompted investors to rush to the safe-haven assets. A global wave of risk aversion sent sovereign bond yields falling across the world. Benchmark U.S. Treasury yields fell to their lowest levels since September 2017.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• Landslide victory of the NDA helped the Indian equities hit record closing high in the week ended May 31.

• Chinese Yuan is approaching the Critical 7.00 mark. Chinese Yuan has dropped nearly 3% post the US- China recent trade tensions. Though, the China’s central bank has said they will not let the currency weaken past 7.00.

• US- China trade concern remains high. U.S. President Donald Trump said that US was not ready to make a deal with Beijing but he expected one in the future. He also expects Japan to even out a trade imbalance with the US.

• Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini said the European Commission could fine Italy 3 billion euros for breaking EU debt and deficit rules.

• ECB warned that growing uncertainty about global economic growth could lead to “bouts of high volatility” in financial markets.

• Departure of Theresa May as prime minister deepened fears about a chaotic exit for Britain from the European Union.

• Japanese Yen gained further after a renewed risk-aversion gripped the Asian markets on the reports that the US President Trump imposed new tariffs on Mexico, which intensified the global trade war fears.

• China’s manufacturing activity contracted more than expected for in the month of May. PMI for May came in at 49.4 lower than the forecast.

• US real GDP increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the first quarter of 2019, in line as forecasted.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 69.42 70.07 69.36 69.68

EURINR 77.82 78.12 77.58 77.68

GBPINR 88.12 88.56 87.58 88.64

JPYINR 0.6346 0.6431 0.6338 0.6403


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

GMT Start Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Reuters Poll Prior Unit

3 Jun 2019 13:30 Euro Zone Markit Mfg Final PMI May 47.7 47.7 May

3 Jun 2019 14:00 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Mfg PMI May 52 53.1 May

3 Jun 2019 19:15 United States Markit Mfg PMI Final May 50.6 May

3 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Construction Spending MM Apr 0.4 -0.9 Apr

3 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI May 53 52.8 May

3 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM Mfg Prices Paid May 50 May

3 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manuf Employment Idx May 52.4 May

3 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM Manuf New Orders Idx May 51.7 May

3 Jun 2019 20:30 United States Export Wheat Inspected 30 May, w/e 494097 30 May, w/e

3 Jun 2019 20:30 United States Export Corn Inspected 30 May, w/e 1098948 30 May, w/e

3 Jun 2019 20:30 United States Exp Soybean Inspected 30 May, w/e 532881 30 May, w/e

4 Jun 2019 02:30 United States All Car Sales May 4790000 May

4 Jun 2019 02:30 United States All Truck Sales May 11640000 May

4 Jun 2019 04:31 United Kingdom BRC Retail Sales YY May 3.7 May

4 Jun 2019 14:00 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Cons PMI May 50.5 50.5 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone HICP Flash YY May 1.3 1.7 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F&E Flash YY May 1 1.4 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY May 0.9 1.3 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM May 0.9 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone CPI NSA May 105.09 May

4 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Unemployment Rate Apr 7.7 7.7 Apr

4 Jun 2019 18:25 United States Redbook MM 1 Jun, w/e 1.3 1 Jun, w/e

4 Jun 2019 18:25 United States Redbook YY 1 Jun, w/e 5.7 1 Jun, w/e

4 Jun 2019 19:15 United States ISM-New York Index May 882.8 May

4 Jun 2019 19:15 United States ISM NY Biz Conditions May 77.3 May

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Durables Ex-Def, R MM Apr -2.5 Apr

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Durable Goods, R MM Apr -2.1 Apr

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Factory Orders MM Apr -1 1.9 Apr

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Durables Ex-Transpt R MM Apr 0 Apr

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Nondef Cap Ex-Air R MM Apr -0.9 Apr

4 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Factory Ex-Transp MM Apr 0.8 Apr

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly crude stocks 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly gasoline stk 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly dist. stocks 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly heating oil 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly crude imports 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly product imports 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API weekly crude runs 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 03:00 United States API Cushing number 27 May, w/e #N/P #N/P 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Services PMI May 54.5 May

5 Jun 2019 13:30 United Kingdom New Passenger cars Registration May 161064 May

5 Jun 2019 13:30 Euro Zone Markit Serv Final PMI May 52.5 52.5 May

5 Jun 2019 13:30 Euro Zone Markit Comp Final PMI May 51.6 51.6 May

5 Jun 2019 14:00 United Kingdom Markit/CIPS Serv PMI May 50.6 50.4 May

5 Jun 2019 14:00 United Kingdom Reserve Assets Total May 1.72E+11 May

5 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices MM Apr 0.3 -0.1 Apr

CURRENCY


5 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices YY Apr 3.2 2.9 Apr

5 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales MM Apr -0.2 0 Apr

5 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Retail Sales YY Apr 1.6 1.9 Apr

5 Jun 2019 16:30 United States MBA Mortgage Applications 31 May, w/e -3.3 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 16:30 United States Mortgage Market Index 31 May, w/e 411.5 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 16:30 United States MBA Purchase Index 31 May, w/e 259.4 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 16:30 United States Mortgage Refinance Index 31 May, w/e 1255.4 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 16:30 United States MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate 31 May, w/e 4.33 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 17:45 United States ADP National Employment May 185000 275000 May

5 Jun 2019 19:15 United States Markit Comp Final PMI May 50.9 May

5 Jun 2019 19:15 United States Markit Svcs PMI Final May 50.9 May

5 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM N-Mfg PMI May 55.5 55.5 May

5 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Bus Act May 59.5 May

5 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Employment Idx May 53.7 May

5 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM N-Mfg New Orders Idx May 58.1 May

5 Jun 2019 19:30 United States ISM N-Mfg Price Paid Idx May 55.7 May

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Stocks 31 May, w/e -282000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist. Stocks 31 May, w/e -1615000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline Stk 31 May, w/e 2204000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Imports 31 May, w/e -476000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Rfg Stocks 31 May, w/e 3000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Heatoil Stock 31 May, w/e -347000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Prods Imports 31 May, w/e -195000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Dist Output 31 May, w/e -24000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Crude Runs 31 May, w/e 189000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Refining Util 31 May, w/e 1.3 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Wkly Crude Cushing 31 May, w/e -16000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA Weekly Gasoline O/P 31 May, w/e -20000 31 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 23:00 United States EIA Ethanol Ref Stk 27 May, w/e 22624000 27 May, w/e

5 Jun 2019 23:00 United States EIA Ethanol Fuel Total 27 May, w/e 1057000 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Employment Overall Final Q1 1.6E+08 Q1

6 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Employment Final YY Q1 1.3 Q1

6 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone Employment Final QQ Q1 0.3 Q1

6 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone GDP Revised QQ Q1 0.4 0.4 Q1

6 Jun 2019 14:30 Euro Zone GDP Revised YY Q1 1.2 1.2 Q1

6 Jun 2019 15:30 United Kingdom BBA Mortgage Rate May 4.29 May

6 Jun 2019 17:00 United States Challenger Layoffs May 40023 May

6 Jun 2019 17:15 Euro Zone ECB Refinancing Rate Jun 0 0 Jun

6 Jun 2019 17:15 Euro Zone ECB Deposit Rate Jun -0.4 -0.4 Jun

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Corn Export Sales New 27 May, w/e 1068300 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Corn Export Sales Net 27 May, w/e 906800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Corn Exp Sale Next Yr Net 27 May, w/e 76500 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Corn Exp Sales Net Total 27 May, w/e 983300 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Export Sales New 27 May, w/e 486500 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Export Sales Net 27 May, w/e 455700 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Next Yr Net 27 May, w/e 22000 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybean Exp Sale Net Total 27 May, w/e 477700 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybeanmeal Exp Sale Net 27 May, w/e 183800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soymeal Exp Sls Next Yr Net 27 May, w/e 65000 27 May, w/e

CURRENCY


6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Meal Exp Sls Net Total 27 May, w/e 248800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybeanoil Exp Sales Net 27 May, w/e 35100 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Nxt Yr Net 27 May, w/e 0 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Soybn Oil Exp Sls Net Total 27 May, w/e 35100 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Export Sales New 27 May, w/e 191900 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Export Sales Net 27 May, w/e 153000 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Next Yr Net 27 May, w/e 411800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Wheat Exp Sale Net Total 27 May, w/e 564800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Beef Export Sales New 27 May, w/e 22800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Beef Export Sales Net 27 May, w/e 21700 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales New 27 May, w/e 299400 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Up Cotton Exp Sales Net 27 May, w/e 288800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States US Pork Export Sales New 27 May, w/e 55800 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States US Pork Export Sales Net 27 May, w/e 54600 27 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States International Trade $ Apr -50500000000 -5E+10 Apr

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Goods Trade Balance (R) Apr -7.2E+10 Apr

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Initial Jobless Claims 1 Jun, w/e 215000 1 Jun, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Jobless Claims 4-Wk Avg 1 Jun, w/e 216750 1 Jun, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Continued Jobless Claims 25 May, w/e 1657000 25 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Labor Costs Revised Q1 -0.8 -0.9 Q1

6 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Productivity Revised Q1 3.6 3.6 Q1

6 Jun 2019 20:00 United States EIA- Nat Gas, Change Bcf 31 May, w/e 1.14E+11 31 May, w/e

6 Jun 2019 20:00 United States Nat Gas-EIA Implied Flow 31 May, w/e 1.14E+11 31 May, w/e

7 Jun 2019 13:00 United Kingdom Halifax House Prices MM May 0.1 1.1 May

7 Jun 2019 13:00 United Kingdom HalifaxHousePrice 3M/YY May 5 May

7 Jun 2019 13:30 China (Mainland) FX Reserves (Monthly) May 3.09E+12 3.1E+12 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Non-Farm Payrolls May 180000 263000 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Private Payrolls May 173000 236000 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Manufacturing Payrolls May 5000 4000 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Government Payrolls May 27000 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Unemployment Rate May 3.6 3.6 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Average Earnings MM May 0.3 0.2 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Average Earnings YY May 3.2 3.2 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Average Workweek Hrs May 34.5 34.4 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States Labor Force Partic May 62.8 May

7 Jun 2019 18:00 United States U6 Underemployment May 7.3 May

7 Jun 2019 19:30 United States Wholesale Invt(y), R MM Apr 0.2 0.7 Apr

CURRENCY


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