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ISSUE: 017

29TH DECEMBER, 2018

RULE THE MARKET

From The Desk Of Research Head

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Gold, Equities, USDINR and Crude Oil - The essential gears of Financial Markets working in unisonGold, equities, USDINR and crude oil prices have similar characteristics such as asset price inflation and

momentum. They are significantly correlated with each other and with the business cycle. The price of

all these assets, as determined in the free markets is an important indicator of collective expectations

of the future state of the world economy. Let’s look into each one of them in the following lines.

Gold: Gold is one of the important store of value today and the most important component of the

global economy since 1945. Gold’s value remains fairly constant or increases over time. It is hence

used as an ideal hedge against inflation. Increasing gold prices are a traditional indicator of a recession

or a downturn in an economy.

Equities: When the economy is doing good or is expected to do good, stock markets rise and take

a dive during economic slowdown. Indian economy is highly integrated with the global economy but

does not have enough leverage to affect it in any way. It is hence vulnerable to external shocks, things

that the government cannot control.

USDINR: Whenever India buys crude oil from Iran, natural gas from Russia and electronics from China,

we pay them in dollars and vice-versa for exports. Dollar-Rupee exchange rate is thus very important

for both imports and export competitiveness. When it increases, consumers are affected by higher

prices in finished goods. Similarly, the stronger the rupee, exporters are affected with lowered profit

margins.

Crude oil prices: India is a major importer of oil and oil is the most important energy resource. An

increase in the global oil prices weakens the USDINR and the Indian economy.

The relationship between these assets is quite complex. Let us see how the change in one asset

impacts the other three assets.

1. If the future expectation of the global economy is pessimistic, people run to the safety of the USD

and Gold and sell stocks. The price of gold rises and the value of the dollar rises against the rupee.

FIIs and FDIs pull money out of the Indian stock market causing it to decline.

2. When the price of the dollar rises, there will be a surge in crude oil prices for India. This puts a

strain on the economy as inflation increases with fuel costs. Because of high inflation, people

invest more in gold and less in stocks causing the stock markets to fall.

3. When the price of crude oil decreases such as the case now, energy costs reduce. This reduction

may or may not cause an effect on the other three assets. Ideally, this will reduce the costs of

energy, we will spend fewer dollars buying crude oil and the rupee will strengthen.

4. When the demand for dollar goes down, the price of crude oil goes down reducing energy costs

and the cycle repeats.

To conclude in brief, it turns fruitful to study the price of these assets in aggregation, as they heavily

depend on the prevailing macroeconomic conditions. For example, when the business cycle is positive

i.e. the GDP is rising, stocks rise while gold falls. If inflation is rising along with GDP, then both gold and

stocks rise; stocks rise on FDI infusion and gold rises because of inflation.

CONTENTSEquity 1-6

Derivatives 7-8

Commodity 9-12

Currency 13-14

Events 15

TeamDr. Ravi Singh

Syed Hasan Jafar

Viplav Dhandhukia

Amrita Preetam

Amit Samar

Chirag M Solanki

Chetan K Waghray

Vaishali Paruthi

Pankaj Wadhwani

Benjamin Francis

Vivek Ranjan Misra

Kiran Shankar Prasad

Munindra Upadhyaya

Konpal Pali

Yash Bhotika

Veeresh Hiremath

Arpit Chandna

Ravi Pandey

Anup. B.P

Amit Kumar

Ramesh Chenchala

Vinod Jaya kumar

Ravikanth Pedapati

Karvy Head Office

Karvy Stock Broking Limited, Plot No.31, 6th Floor, Karvy Millennium Towers, Financial District, Nanakramguda, Hyderabad, 500 032, India.

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Analyst CertificationThe following Karvy Research Desk, who is (are) primarily responsible for this report and whose name(s) is/ are mentioned therein, certify (ies) that the views expressed herein accurately reflect his (their) personal view(s) about the subject security (ies) and issuer(s) and that no part of his (their) compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report.

- DR. RAVI SINGHHead-Technical & Derivatives Research

EQUITY

Economy

• The central government’s fiscal deficit widened further in November. The fiscal deficit stood at Rs 7.17 trillion at the end of November 2018, 114.8 per cent of the budgeted target of Rs. 6.24 trillion, showed the latest data released by the Controller General of Accounts. The government has budgeted to cut the fiscal deficit to 3.3 per cent of GDP in 2018-19, from 3.53 per cent in the previous financial year.

Automobile

• Maruti Suzuki to stop making diesel engines at Gurgaon plant.

• Auto sector may attract an additional USD 8-10 billion investment by 2023.

BFSI

• The Reserve Bank of India has allowed National Housing Bank to raise its refinance limit to Rs. 500 bn rupees from Rs. 300 bn rupees for its current financial year that started on July 1.

• ESAF Small Finance Bank has been granted the status of a scheduled bank by RBI, with effect from Nov 12.

• The government would infuse Rs. 286.15 bn rupees by December end in seven state-run banks to help them meet regulatory norms on maintaining adequate capital buffers.

E-Commerce

• In a major setback to e-commerce players such as Amazon and Flipkart in India, the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion has tightened norms for foreign direct investment in e-commerce companies.

• The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India has issued revised guidelines that directly impact online food and grocery operators such as Grofers and BigBasket as well as food delivery platforms like Swiggy and Zomato.

Metals

• The Commerce Ministry is in favour of raising import duty on aluminium to support domestic manufacturers and government is working on an integrated gold policy, which is expected to be released soon, to promote growth of the yellow metal industry and exports of jewellery.

Telecom

• India’s mobile phone companies must invest and innovate beyond traditional voice and data offerings, else they run the risk of being disrupted by aggressive rivals or app makers.

• The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India is looking at ways to lower the base price at which bids will be sought for airwaves in future auctions as it seeks to move away from its usual practice of mechanically hiking the starting price in every successive sale.

Pharma

• Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Ltd. launched sevelamer carbonate for oral suspension, a generic of Sanofi’s Renvela oral suspension, in the US. Sevelamer carbonate will be available in 0.8-gm and 2.4-gm packets in count size of 90.

Oil and gas

• The Delhi High Court dismissed GAIL India Ltd’s claims of Rs. 3.57 bn rupees from the company pertaining to supply of domestic natural gas from July 2006 to May 2014.

• In 8 months, state oil firms use 63% of Rs. 89,000 crore capex target for FY 19.

NEWS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

• President Donald Trump said he won’t relent on the partial government shutdown unless Congress funds his proposed border wall and wouldn’t say whether he’d accept less than $5 billion for the project.“Whatever it takes,” he told reporters accompanying him on an unannounced visit to US troops deployed at an air base in Iraq.

• China’s government said it has made plans with Washington for talks in January aimed at ending a tariff battle that threatens to depress global trade. The two sides have “made specific arrangements for face-to-face meetings” and are talking by phone.

• The FHFA House Price Index (HPI) reported a 0.3 percent increase in U.S. house prices in October from the previous month,” the U.S. Federal Housing Finance Agency reported. From October 2017 to October 2018, house prices were up 5.7 percent.

• China’s central bank PBoC declared to use multiple monetary policy tools to support the economy. The PBoC said it will use prudent monetary. It will step up counter-cyclical adjustments and it will keep Yuan basically stable.

TREND SHEETSymbol CMP S2 S1 R1 R2 TREND

SENSEX 36076.72 34577 35327 36511 36945 Up

NIFTY 10859.9 10404 10632 10991 11122 Up

NIFTYBANK 27125.25 26093 26609 27441 27756 Up

RELIANCE 1,125.55 1039 1082 1152 1178 Down

YESBANK 181.45 169 175 187 192 Up

IBULHSGFIN 849.25 764 807 875 900 Up

INFY 656.95 626 642 668 679 Down

TCS 1,896.05 1831 1864 1935 1974 Down

AXISBANK 625.05 594 610 634 643 Up

MARUTI 7,505.55 7259 7382 7649 7792 Down

HDFCBANK 2,122.90 2041 2082 2151 2179 Up

SUNPHARMA 425.20 399 412 436 447 Down

BAJFINANCE 2,634.80 2454 2544 2685 2734 Up

FORTHCOMING EVENTSCOMPANY NAME EX DATE PURPOSE

Dhanuka

Agritech Ltd.01-Jan-19 Buy Back of Shares

Techno Electric

& Engineering

Company Ltd.

02-Jan-19 Buy Back of Shares

Oil and

Natural Gas

Corporation

Ltd.

03-Jan-19 Buy Back of Shares

Selan

Exploration

Technology Ltd.

03-Jan-19 Interim Dividend - Rs. 5

Shanthi Gears

Ltd.04-Jan-19 Interim Dividend - Rs. 5

KSTREET - 29TH DECEMBER 2018 1

INDIAN INDICES (% CHANGE)

GLOBAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

NIFTY MIDCAP100TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

SECTORAL INDICES (% CHANGE)

FII/FPI & DII TRADING (IN RS. CRORES)

NSE NIFTY TOP GAINERS & LOSERS (1W)

EQUITY

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0 NIFTY

IND

EX

SEN

SEX

IND

EX

BS

E Mid

cap

BS

E Sm

allcap

NIFTY

Jun

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NS

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cap

-4.5

-4.0

-3.5

-3.0

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

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to

Ban

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Se

rvices

Ph

arma

IT Me

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FMC

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-2.50

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-1.50

-1.00

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SD

AQ

DO

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BA

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EICH

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OTO

RS

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AS

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PA

INTS

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BA

JAJ A

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LTD

IND

IAN

OIL C

OR

P LTD

HER

O M

OTO

CO

RP

LTD

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

21-12-18

22-12-18

23-12-18

24-12-18

25-12-18

26-12-18

27-12-18

28-12-18

FII/FPI DII

Source: Bloomberg


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Bharat Electronics Ltd. CMP Rs.87.9Target Price Rs.109Upside 24%

Investment Rationale

• Q2 Performance from BEL: A Beat: Revenue for the quarter grew by 37% YoY and EPS grew by ~39% to reach Rs. 2.34 in Q2 which is higher than our and consensus estimate by ~20%. Execution of better margin IACCS, supply of legacy product and EW systems led to robust Q2 performance. However, value of production grew by only ~27% YoY during the quarter which included EVM & VVPAT and legacy orders. Q2 order inflows was at Rs.108 bn which included LRSAM orders of Rs. 92 bn and order backlog reached Rs. 490 bn which covers ~4x FY18 revenue. Q2 EBITDA was higher by 44% at Rs. 8.5 bn mainly on account of revenue mix and net income for the same period was higher by 40%. We expect BEL to clock order inflow of ~Rs. 130-140 bn annually till FY20E and revenue could grow at a 14% CAGR to reach Rs. 136 bn by FY20E. At CMP Rs. 87.9, BEL is available at 12.3x of FY20E EPS of Rs. 7.2 and we continue to value BEL at 15.2x FY20E EPS for a target price of Rs. 109. Key risk to our call is margin profile of orders to be executed in the next two quarters.

• Long awaited orders flowing in: Order inflow during Q2 stood at Rs. 108 bn comprising of a large order for LRSAM of Rs. 92 bn. LRSAM order was one of the large awaited orders for several quarters and other orders include Multi Capacity Encryption Units and Humsa - NG Sonar. Inflows include US$ 27 mn of export orders. One major order expected in FY19 is the long awaited Akash (7 squadrons). We estimate order inflow at ~Rs. 130-140 bn annually for the next two years.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 187/74.2

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 213/3.04

EPS (Rs.) 7.2

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 12.2

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4

Stock Exchange NSE

P/E CHART

Valuation

BEL has significantly corrected in the last one year and reasons were aplenty. We would like to highlight three reasons which are operationally attributable to BEL 1) new pricing policy (50 bps – 100 bps impact at PBT level) 2) higher tax rates due to R&D deductions (~400 bps higher tax impact in FY21) and 3) Significant CapEx of Rs. 6 bn p.a for next 3 years (~77% increase in Gross Block) for next phase of growth which could impact the return ratios in the medium-term. Hence, we assign 11 year average 1 year forward earnings and value it at 15.2x FY20E EPS for a target price of Rs. 109 which represents an upside of 24% allowing us to maintain ‘BUY’ rating on BEL. Key risk to our call is margin profile of orders to be executed in the next two quarters.

EQUITY

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

Revenue 104008 119531 136026

EBIDTA 20352 22815 26069

EBIDTA Margin(%) 19.6 19.1 19.2

PAT 14310 15484 17451

EPS 5.8 6.4 7.2

RoE (%) 18.2 17.7 16.9

PE (x) 24.3 13.7 12.2


BEAT THE STREET - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

LT Foods LimitedCMP Rs.41.90Target Price Rs.71Upside 69%

Investment Rationale

• LT Foods Limited posted consolidated revenue of Rs. 9278 Mn in Q2FY19 registering growth of 8.8% on YoY basis mainly on brand strength, higher realization and overall strong demand scenario for basmati rice.

• Utilization of Rs. 3000 Mn raised through QIP towards debt servicing to contribute in reduced finance cost which will in turn have positive bearing on net profit.

• The management has given to understand that capex for next 3-4 years will be normal in the range of Rs. 400 to 600 Mn, effectively meaning thereby that margins and profitability of the company will be improving, going ahead.

• Branding exercise and value-added products helped the company in increased market reach.

• With depreciation in INR, share of branded business which is high margin in nature is likely to increase further.

• The ramp-up in European business is on track to break-even by FY19. The company has been following the strategy of backward integration which ensures better produce and pricing and in position of addressing quality concerns raised by EU.

VALUE PARAMETERSFace Value (Rs.) 1.0

52 Week High/Low (Rs.) 110/35

M.Cap (Rs. Bn/US $mn) 13.2/0.2

EPS (Rs.) 6.8

P/E Ratio (times) (FY20E) 6.2

Dividend Yield (%) 0.4%

Stock Exchange NSE/BSE

ValuationWe have valued the stock on 1 year forward PE 10.4x of FY20E EPS and have arrived at TP of Rs. 71 with potential upside of 69%.

EQUITY

P/E CHART

% OF SHARE HOLDING

in Rs.Mn ACTUAL ESTIMATE

YE Mar FY18 FY19E FY20E

REVENUE 36137 40112 44524

EBITDA 3780 4532 5045

EBITDA(%) 10.5 11.3 11.3

PAT 1444 1876 2172

EPS (Rs.) 4.5 5.9 6.8

ROE (%) 15.7 14.8 14.8


EQUITY

BEAT THE STREET - TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Siemens Limited

SIEMENS is one of the preferred counters from the universe of capital goods. The stock has witnessed huge surge in the trading volumes from past two months and has

generated more than 22% of returns since then. At current juncture, the stock has given a consolidation range breakout and is placed above all its major moving averages

indicating inherent strength in the counter. On oscillator front, 14 period RSI is placed in the comfort zone of 60-67 levels on daily chart suggesting further upside room and

even on the indicators front, the stock has witnessed outburst on the Bollinger band (20, 2) and is placed above the upper band of the Bollinger affirming the bullish view in

the counter. Adding to it, the Parabolic SAR and Heiken candlesticks are signalling positive trend on the daily chart reflecting that the stock is well placed to move higher in the

coming days. Even 14 period RSI is trading above the 9 period averages in weekly chart indicating positive momentum. At the current levels, the stock has given an excellent

opportunity for medium to long term investors to accumulate the stock on dips around 1020 levels for the potential upside targets of 1150 levels, breaching which it may have

the potential to reach 1180 levels over the next 6-9 months, keeping a stop loss below 930 levels.

Container Corporation of India Ltd

CONCOR has been witnessing a strong rally from 642 levels to 695.8 levels and followed by consolidation during which the stock has witnessed good accumulation. On

27th December, 2018, stock has given a fresh breakout with a runaway gap and huge jump in volume on daily chart indicating a fresh leg of rally. On the weekly charts, the

stock is trading above all of its 21/50/100/200 period Exponential Moving Averages levels indicating the positive momentum in the counter for all major time frames. Among

other leading indicators Parabolic SAR is trading below the current market price and suggests a positive trend in the counter on daily charts as well as weekly charts. Another

indicator Heiken candlestick also indicates bullish trend in the counter on daily as well as weekly charts. Among the momentum indicators, MACD is trading above the signal

line on daily charts indicating positive momentum in the stock on medium to long term perspective. The stock has tested the mean in Bollinger bands (20, 2) and bounced

back to test the upper band and the bands are expanding on weekly charts indicating very strong momentum in the counter.

Stock SIEMENS

CMP 1043.35

Action BUY

Entry 1020

Average 970

Stop loss 930

Target 1150

Target 2 1180

Time Frame 6-9 Months

Stock CONCOR

CMP 670.40

Action BUY

Entry 650-660

Average 615

Stop loss 600

Target 750

Target 2 780

Time Frame 6-9 Months


EQUITY

Sentiment

Stop Loss 2900

Target 2600

Lot Size 250

Margin 119700

21-DEMA 2761

Open Interest Shares 2179500

Change in OI 1480000

Cost of Carry (%) 6.97

SECTORAL SNIPPETS

NIFTY FINSERVICES (11586.25) traded with positive bias in the week passed by, closed with gains of 1.27% on a weekly closing basis. On the stock front RECLTD & PFC gained 11.97% & 7.90% and remained in focus. IBULHSGFIN, M&MFIN, BAJAJFINSV, CHOLAFIN, BAJFINANCE, ICICIBANK, SRTRANSFIN, HDFC & IBVENTURES managed to outperform the index whereas MFSL, KOTAKBANK, SBIN, AXISBANK, HDFCBANK, ICICIPRULI & HDFCLIFE have underperformed the index, however, it managed to close on a positive note while BAJAJHLDNG & EDELWEISS closed on a negative to flat note. Index made a swing low near 10837 in the earlier week, where it found support near its major 200-DEMA, and witnessed smart recovery in last couple of sessions. Technically, index is holding well above its major average and also above its 21 & 50-DEMA which is currently placed near 11357 & 11178 levels respectively. On the momentum setup 14-period RSI consolidating above equilibrium level from last few sessions, indicating positive momentum is gradually building up. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 11350 levels followed by 11200 levels, below which important support lies near 11000 mark, while on the higher side 11650 will work as an immediate resistance, followed by 11850 mark. Going forward, index on sustaining above 11350 will continue to strengthen further towards 11850 and higher levels.

NIFTY IT (14385.80) traded with mixed to positive note, settled with gains of nearly 1.27% on weekly closing basis, exhibiting renewed buying interest in the index. On the stock front TECHM 2.41%, MINDTREE 2.32%, WIPRO 2.17%, INFY 1.59%, TATAELXSI 1.52%, HCLTECH 0.79% & OFSS 0.21% have gained during the week while TCS closed on a flat note. On the other hand INFIBEAM & KPIT have closed with cuts -2.85% & -2.99% on a negative note. From last few trading session, USDINR is trading between the range of 69.50-70.50 which is putting mild pressure on IT counters. NIFTY IT index after placing a swing high near 14931 witnessed correction towards its major 200-DEMA (14133) where it found support by making a swing low near 14018 and recovered from the lows. Technically, index is holding above its major average, but below its 21 & 50-DEMA which is currently placed near 14504 & 14615 levels. On the momentum setup, 14-period RSI found support near 40-levels and gradually inching higher towards equilibrium levels, indicating bulls are still active at lower levels. On the downside, index has an immediate support near 14100 levels followed by 14000 levels while on the higher side, 14500-14600 will work as an immediate resistance followed by 15000. Going forward, index on sustaining above 14000 may continue to strengthen further, failing to protect which index may tumble further.

NIFTY AUTO (9223.80) has underperformed the Nifty 50 index on a week to week basis and ended the week on a negative note with over 1% of loss. This was majorly due to the fall in the heavy weight counters like HEROMOTOCO, BAJAJ-AUTO, EICHERMOT, TATAMOTORS, MOTHERSUMI, BOSCHLTD and ASHOKLEY which plunged around 6%, 3.10%, 1.80%, 2.70%, 3.50%, 1.30% and 2.20% respectively while M&M and BHARATFORG were the gainers from the same universe which surged around 3% and 1.20% respectively on weekly basis. Technically, the index has witnessed resistance near 9350 levels and plunged downwards. The multiple resistance zones of 9350-9360 levels played a crucial role and reversed the trend for the index. On daily chart, the stock is still placed below all its major moving average and the upside may be expected near to the recent swing high of 9570-9580 levels, which would play a crucial role for resisting the index. The immediate support for the index is placed around 9000-9050 levels followed by 8850-8900 levels while on the contrary the resistance is pegged around 9350-9400 levels followed by 9570-9580 levels. For the coming week, stock specific action can be seen as sales figure will be out from 1st January. Hence it is advisable to trade cautiously in the counter and to look for stock specific action.

NIFTY BANK (27125.25) marginally underperformed the Nifty with a gain of 0.95% during the week passed by while the broader index Nifty gained by 0.98%. During the week, the index took support at 26400 levels after testing the support levels close to 50 days EMA at 26385 levels. However, on the last trading day of the week, the index took resistance at 27240 levels indicating 27200 surround zone as a strong resistance to the index. Considering the technical setup on the daily charts, the index may trade with a positive bias in the short term ahead until unless 26400 levels are breached. On the stock front, BANKBARODA, RBLBANK and PNB gained by 3% to 2.55% during the week. On the other side, YESBANK and IDFCBANK marginally lost by 0.68% and 0.58 respectively with respect to the weekly closing basis. Technically, Bank Nifty may face crucial resistance at 27370 and 27550 levels. For the week ahead, support for the index can be pegged at 26700 levels followed by 26380 levels. On the momentum setup 60-period weekly CCI is plotting above its +100 line indicating an underlying bullishness in the index. However, we may expect a subdued movement in the index if it falls below the 26400 levels.

ADANI PORTS AND SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD: BUY ADANIPORTS (JAN FUTURE) | CMP: 389.00 SECTOR: INFRA

ADANIPORTS has traded the week with a positive bias. The stock has closed the week with a positive return of more than 7% ending at 387.40 levels. Adding to that, the stock is making higher highs from last couple of trading sessions and well placed above its major moving averages on daily chart with positive price structure, suggesting positive momentum in the stock is likely to continue. On oscillator front, the 14 period RSI is trading above its 9-day signal line and poised with bullish bias, suggesting strength in the counter. The Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) on daily chart is trading below the price which reflects buying will remain intact in the counter in the coming trading sessions. The derivatives data suggests that the stock has witnessed addition of long positions during last trading session, which is re-confirming our bullish view. From the above observation of price momentum, it seems the stock is likely to trade with a positive bias and may move higher towards psychological mark of 400 levels continuing recent trend. Hence, we recommend Smart Traders to go long in the stock around 382 levels with stop loss placed below 370 for the higher target of 400 levels.

Sentiment

Stop Loss 370

Target 400

Lot Size 2500

Margin 170900

21-DEMA 369

Open Interest Shares 22820000

Change in OI 18780000

Cost of Carry (%) 5.63

BAJAJ AUTO LIMITED: SELL BAJAJ-AUTO (JAN FUTURE) | CMP: 2737.55 SECTOR: AUTO

BAJAJ-AUTO has closed the week with a negative return of more than 3% and underperformed its benchmark index NIFTY AUTO which closed the week with a negative return of nearly 1% during the last week. Technically, the stock is trading below its 21/50/100/200 DEMA on daily chart, exhibiting underlying weakness in the stock. On the technical indicator front, the 14-period RSI is trading below its 9-day signal line and poised with weak bias, indicating downtrend in the counter in near term. The Parabolic SAR (Stop & Reverse) on daily chart is trading above the price, indicating weakness is likely to continue in the stock. The derivatives data suggests that the stock has witnessed addition of short positions during last trading session, re-confirming our bearish view. From the above observation of price momentum, it seems the stock is likely to trade with negative bias in the coming trading sessions also. Therefore, we recommend Smart Traders to initiate short position in the counter around 2,780 levels with a stop loss placed above 2,900 levels for the lower target of 2,600 levels.


WEEKLY VIEW OF THE MARKET

NIFTY (10,859.90): Nifty after making a swing low at 10534 levels witnessed a sharp bounce towards 10893 levels and closed with a weekly gain of 0.98%.The index recouped all the losses accumulated during the early week to close at 10860 levels due to the strong rebound in global markets. Investors have fretted over fears of a monetary policy mistake by the US Federal Reserve, an ongoing government shutdown in Washington and potential signals that the global economy may be slowing down. Global market participants are also watching developments on the trade front as China and the U.S. try to strike a deal on trade and the clock ticks down on the two nations’ tariff ceasefire. However, Indian market participants in the weeks ahead might act cautiously as the government might announce populist measures to woo voters ahead of 2019 general elections which may lead to fiscal slippage. In the current scenario, 10935-10985 zone may act as a hurdle zone which is in confluence with prior swing highs and 50% Fibonacci retracement for the down move of 11760 levels to the major swing low of 10030 levels. This indicates that the above resistance zone might act as a strong resistance in the short run ahead. Nifty may indicate further strength once the resistance at 10985 levels is confidently taken out from the downside. For the week ahead to note, as global markets remain closed for first half of the weekend, we may notice lacklustre volumes during the said period. However, market participants may lay their eyes keenly on the ongoing parliament sessions for any major cues ahead of the general elections. PMI data releasing during the week may also set the cues for further direction in the market. On the derivatives front, Open interest data suggests that the index may likely to trade in the range of 10600 to 11100 levels during the week.

DERIVATIVE STRATEGIES

DERIVATIVES

Type: BUY CALL in BHEL

First leg Buy BHEL 31 Jan 75 CE @ 1.70

BEP 76.70

Max Profit Unlimited

Max Loss 12750

Stop Loss 69 (Spot Levels)

Rationale The stock has given break out from a small trading range on line charts and the volumes and derivative action on the stock are also notable. The stock has ended the week with a gain of more than 3% last week.

Type: Bull Call in SAIL

First leg Buy one lot of SAIL 31JAN 2018 55 CE @ 2.30

Second leg Sell one lot of SAIL 31 JAN 2018 60 CE @ 0.80

BEP 56.50

Max Profit 42000

Max Loss 18000

Rationale The stock has ended the week with a gain of around 6.50% and the volumes on the up move are huge with strong derivative rollover action. Hence bullish view for near term.

Type: Buy Call in NIFTY

First leg Buy one lot of NIFTY JAN 11000 CE @ 130


BEP 11130

Max Loss 9750

Stop loss 75 (Option levels)

Rationale The index is in strong up move and backed by strong gains over last three days up moves. The stock is also trading above its short term moving averages. Hence bullish view for near term.

Type: Buy Call in BANKNIFTY

First leg Buy one lot of BANKNIFTY 03 Jan 27200 CE @ 170


BEP 27370

Max Loss 3400

Stop loss 80 (Option levels)

Rationale The index is in strong up move and backed by strong gains over last three days up moves. The stock is also trading above its short term moving averages. Hence bullish view for near term.

7KSTREET - 29TH DECEMBER 2018

DERIVATIVES

FII ACTIVITY IN INDEX FUTURES FII ACTIVITY IN STOCK FUTURES

TOP 6 LONG BUILD UP

Stock Name LTP % Price Change Open Int % OI Change

AJANTPHARM 1193.9 5.09 626500 14.32

PCJEWELLER 88.25 7.23 10354500 10.24

RELCAPITAL 229.75 3.70 13123500 9.87

SUNTV 619.2 4.24 7301000 7.43

NBCC 56.9 1.43 37600000 5.05

JETAIRWAYS 273.45 21.89 5955400 4.14

BANKNIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION (WEEKLY) CHANGE IN BANKNIFTY OPTION OI (WEEKLY)

TOP 6 SHORT CLOSURE


ZEEL 475.8 5.46 11837800 -58.27

GAIL 354.85 3.61 10892028 -47.23

CONCOR 672.5 2.13 2130000 -45.19

POWERGRID 196.2 0.13 25680000 -41.19

OFSS 3690.05 0.48 108300 -40.53

HINDPETRO 249.05 1.65 13832700 -39.94

TOP 6 SHORT BUILD UP


SRF 2013.55 -7.03 752000 56.53

JUBLFOOD 1256.4 -4.96 2453500 29.93

CASTROLIND 153.05 -0.42 7252200 28.89

EICHERMOT 23297.4 -1.71 254875 28.44

HEROMOTOCO 3141.25 -5.95 1359600 25.12

- - - - -

TOP 6 LONG CLOSURE


BPCL 356.2 -2.40 9444600 -45.17

UJJIVAN 274.65 -0.29 3048000 -40.71

VOLTAS 554.5 -2.27 3901000 -40.46

TVSMOTOR 565.8 -0.99 4026000 -37.05

IOC 137.95 -1.81 53102000 -28.03

CEATLTD 1305.15 -1.26 703200 -24.75

NIFTY OPTION OI CONCENTRATION CHANGE IN NIFTY OPTION OI


COMMODITIES

BULLIONGold prices extended the positive trend for second consecutive week during the week ending on 28th December, 2018. Comex gold prices rallied to fresh 6 month high on emergence of risk aversion buying. Weakness in the dollar index after lesser rate hikes in 2019 brought positivity to the yellow metal. Further, the bullion market was influenced by partial shutdown of US government wherein US President sought to collect money for building border wall between US and Mexico. US consumer confidence posted its sharpest decline in more than three years in December, rattling investors already nervous about the prospect that a global economic slowdown was spilling over into the US. CB Consumer Confidence fell sharply to 128.1 in November against previous record of 136.4 raising concerns over economic growth. China’s net gold imports via main conduit Hong Kong rose 28 percent in November from the previous month to their highest since July. As far as silver is considered, it outperformed gold during the week as the Comex silver prices broke key resistance of $15 per troy. Similar trend was seen in the Indian market, however, the gains were capped by appreciation in Indian rupee.

ENERGY COMPLEXWTI Crude prices opened 3% higher on Friday recovering grounds after falling on Thursday but remained pressurized as API data reported growth in US crude stockpiles and concerns about the global economy also kept prices under pressure. Crude prices fell to their lowest in more than a year on Thursday, a day after their biggest one-day rally in two years, pulled down by worries about the global economy and a supply glut. As per API data, US crude inventories for the week to Dec. 21 rose by 6.9 million barrels to 448.2 million barrels on increased refinery output. Separately due to holidays this week, EIA inventory reports will be releasing during evening session on Friday. As per Reuter’s poll data, crude oil inventories fell by 2.869 due to increased refinery inputs for operations. Among the highlights of past week, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said that rising protectionism and the unpredictability of the US administration had greatly contributed to global oil price volatility over the past two years. Novak also said Russia would cut its crude output by between 3 and 5 million tonnes in the first half of 2019 as part of a deal between producers. Meanwhile, US has emerged as the world’s biggest crude producer, pumping 11.6 million barrels per day (bpd), more than both Saudi Arabia and Russia. Separately on the supply side, exports from Iraq’s northern Kirkuk oilfields to the Turkish port of Ceyhan is expected to remain between 80-90,000 barrels per day (bpd) as most of the crude produced is being diverted to feed refineries in the north. In the upcoming week, crude oil prices are likely to witness the range bound movement wherein $45/bbl for WTI will be a crucial psychological level pertaining which global traders are going to decide their positioning in the market.

BASE METALSBase metals traded on a mixed note during the last week of the year 2018, amid the growing concerns for economic growth of China. On the global front, after spending over eight months labouring against some of the toughest sanctions levied in recent years by the US government on a Russian firm, the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced on 23rd Dec about its intentions to end sanctions on En+ Group plc, UC Rusal plc, and JSC Euro Sib Energo. This made the international prices of Aluminium tumble to $1852 per tonne towards the end of week on Dec. 28th. Nickel’s deficit in 2019 is expected to come down by half to 49,000 tonnes from 93,000 tonnes in 2018 because of higher output and of lower grade Nickel Pig Iron in Indonesia as stated by Sumitomo, the top metal miner. China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) on Dec. 27th at Shanghai had decided Copper’s floor treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) at $92 per tonne and 9.2 cents per pound for Q1-2019 up by 2.2 percent compared to Q4-2018. On a yearly basis, there was a variation by 5.75%. The increase in TC/RC charges may have to retrace in 2019 as the mining supply is tightening and there are increased refining activities from China. On economic front, China plans to remove import and export tariffs in 2019 on a range of goods, including import taxes on alternative meals used in animal feed to secure supplies of raw materials amid trade tensions with the US and boosting outbound cargoes.

COTTONMCX Cotton is likely to trade down in upcoming week tracking weaker global cues. Growing demand concerns due to weaker global economic outlook for year 2019 could keep prices down in coming week. International cotton advisory committee estimated that global cotton consumption for year 2018-19 is projected to fall up to 26.7 million tonnes against the 26.8 million tonnes of prior year. Global cotton production is estimated at 26.12 million tonnes against the 26.75 million tonnes of prior year. Domestic cotton futures could track weakness in ICE cotton futures which could slip further on growing worries over the tepid export enquires from China. Meanwhile, USDA announced special import quota of 56650 bales of upland cotton effecting from 27th Dec. Moreover, prices are likely to be weighed down by surging selling pressure at physical market in line improved arrivals at key trading

centres. Domestic demand has been subdued in recent time due to sluggish export of yarn wherein daily arrivals have improved up to 1.75 - 1.8 Lakh bales. Spot prices are ruling near Rs. 43800-44000 per candy levels at Rajkot market. However, prices could bounce back any time due to the weaker production outlook for year 2017-18. Lower yield realization in central and southern region will affect the pace of arrivals adversely in coming weeks. Average yield for cotton in India during year 2018-19 is estimated at 502 kg/hac against the 506 kg/hac of prior year. Cotton Association of India estimated total cotton production for year 2018-19 at 343.25 Lakh bales, lower by 1.4% compare to prior year.

OILS & OILSEEDSSoybean futures could keep its down in upcoming week too due to higher production outlook for year 2018-19. Meanwhile, limited buying at physical market due to tumbling crush margin to millers could be other factor which may keep prices under pressure. Soybean Processors Association of India (SOPA) estimated soybean production for year 2018-19 at 114.8 lakh tons against the 83.5 lakh tons of prior year. Similarly, RM Seed futures are expected to trade on weaker note due to higher production outlook for upcoming season. Reports of increased acreages under mustard seed could keep prices under pressure. The area under mustard seed cultivation has touched 65.79 Lakh hectares as against 63.82 Lakh hac till 28th Dec, higher by 3.09% y/y. However, expectation of rise in export demand of mustard seed oil cake from China could restrict major downfall. China has lifted the ban on the import of mustard seed cake from India. Similarly, Soy ref oil prices could slip further due to sluggish demand outlook. Strengthening of Indian currency could impact the overall import in coming month keeping its cheaper. Likewise MCX CPO futures could trade down in expectation of cut in import duties in coming months. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for December 1 - 15 fell 4.7 percent to 525,939 tonnes from 551,857 tonnes shipped during November 1 - 15 as per cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services. India’s veg oil imports in November fell 10 percent to 1.1 million tonnes from a year ago, a trade body said on Thursday. The country’s imports of palm oil in November stood at 691,827 tonnes, while soy oil imports were 203,734 tonnes, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said in a statement. Malaysia’s palm oil stockpiles at the end of Nov rose by 10.45% M/M to 3.007 million tonnes wherein export for Nov month dropped by 12.87% to 1.37 million tonnes as per latest data released by Malaysian Palm Oil Board ( MPOB). However, production tumbled by 5.64% m/m to 953,750 tonnes as per MPOB.

SPICESCardamom Futures mostly traded negative during the week on limited buying activities at the spot market on account of Christmas. For the week ahead, Cardamom Futures are likely to improve their value; buying activities are likely to revive owing to decline in supplies. Stock availability is reported to be minimum at the production centers due to lower crop size. Overall, trade in the broader range of Rs. 1480-1540/kg is expected. Turmeric Futures traded mostly lower except for the day when it rallied to its upper circuit. Expectations of beginning of harvesting activities in coming days that will increase the supplies at spot market would weigh on prices. However, with the promise of higher prices and MSP for turmeric during Telangana election, farmers may hold back new crop anticipating better prices. Crop is estimated to be lower than earlier projections due to yield concerns in growing states. Jeera Futures extended their bearish trend for the 8th consecutive week losing 20% and fell to 6-month low of Rs. 17070/quintal. For the week ahead, profit booking from lower levels may support prices to trade higher. However, gains will be capped tracking the progress of sowing activities. As per latest data, area coverage is more than the normal area but is lagging behind by last year; govt. assured water facilities and improvement in weather conditions in the growing regions supported the progress. As per latest data, sowing in Gujarat has got completed in 321363 hec of land that was 369561 hec last year during the corresponding period; area is lower by 13% Y/Y while it has covered 101% of the normal area. Dhaniya Futures traded in zigzag note witnessing huge volatility during the week. Prices traded higher tracking slow sowing progress under dhaniya. As per latest data, sowing in Gujarat is completed in only 29112 hec of land which was 68784 hec last year during the corresponding period; area is lower by 58% Y/Y while it has covered just 31% of the normal area. Due to higher prices, demand has slowed down while stock availability is sufficient.


CPO

• CPO MCX Jan is currently trading at Rs. 509

per 10 kg. During the week, it made a high of

Rs. 511/10 kg and low of Rs. 499.90/10 kg.

• The RSI is trading at 41.62. Moving average of

13 is at Rs. 507.60 per 10 and 55 is at 533.29.

• The trend is looking negative for the week.

Hence, recommending Sell at 514-514.50 TP

500 SL above 520.

SILVER

• Silver MCX Mar is currently trading at 38830.

During the week, it made a high of 38860 and

low of 37305. The RSI is trading at 54.34.

• Moving average of 13 is at 37808 and 55 is at

38520. The trend is looking positive for the

week.

• Hence, recommending Buy at 38480-38500

TP 39500 SL 38050.

NICKEL

• Nickel MCX Jan is currently trading at 750.

During the week, it made a high of 772.60 and

low of 749.90.

• The RSI is trading at 31.54. Moving average of

13 is at 835.22 and 55 is at 895.79.

• The trend is looking negative for the week.

Hence, recommending Sell at 770-775 TP 720

and SL above 810.

COMMODITIES

TREND SHEET

Commodities 21-Dec 28-Dec % Change 52 Week High% Change from 52

Week High52 Week Low

% Change from 52 Week Low

MCX Gold (Rs/10 gms) 31193.00 31608.00 1.3% 32311.00 -2.18% 28910.00 9.33%

MCX Silver (Rs/Kg) 37256.00 38700.00 3.9% 41698.00 -7.19% 34981.00 10.63%

MCX Crude Oil (Rs/bbl) 3236.00 3225.00 -0.3% 5669.00 -43.11% 2993.00 7.75%

MCX Natural Gas (Rs/mmBtu) 265.40 241.60 -9.0% 358.70 -32.65% 162.50 48.68%

MCX Copper (Rs/kg) 417.35 419.20 0.4% 493.25 -15.01% 402.55 4.14%

MCX Lead (Rs/kg) 137.85 143.00 3.7% 172.50 -17.10% 133.15 7.40%

MCX Zinc (Rs/kg) 177.35 179.15 1.0% 232.70 -23.01% 163.80 9.37%

MCX Nickel (Rs/kg) 758.90 742.80 -2.1% 1095.20 -32.18% 735.00 1.06%

MCX Aluminium (Rs/kg) 133.85 130.60 -2.4% 178.85 -26.98% 128.30 1.79%

NCDEX Soybean (Rs/Quintal) 3343.00 3360.00 0.5% 3895.00 -13.74% 3047.00 10.27%

NCDEX Refined Soy Oil (Rs/10 kg) 726.05 724.60 -0.2% 796.35 -9.01% 713.60 1.54%

NCDEX RM Seed (Rs/Quintal) 3983.00 3923.00 -1.5% 4262.00 -7.95% 3727.00 5.26%

MCX CPO (Rs/10 kg) 511.90 502.90 -1.8% 673.00 -25.27% 483.40 4.03%

NCDEX Castor Seed (Rs/Quintal) 5142.00 5158.00 0.3% 6300.00 -18.13% 3831.00 34.64%

NCDEX Turmeric (Rs/Quintal) 6604.00 6730.00 1.9% 8020.00 -16.08% 5978.00 12.58%

NCDEX Jeera (Rs/Quintal) 17740.00 17260.00 -2.7% 21900.00 -21.19% 14010.00 23.20%

NCDEX Dhaniya (Rs/Quintal) 6340.00 6150.00 -3.0% 6892.00 -10.77% 4186.00 46.92%

MCX Cardamom (Rs/kg) 1526.60 1534.70 0.5% 1550.00 -0.99% 818.50 87.50%

NCDEX Wheat (Rs/Quintal) 2142.00 2112.00 -1.4% 2162.00 -2.31% 1614.00 30.86%

NCDEX Guar Seed (Rs/Quintal) 4308.00 4265.00 -1.0% 4869.50 -12.41% 3494.50 22.05%

NCDEX Guar Gum (Rs/Quintal) 8594.00 8348.00 -2.9% 10510.00 -20.57% 7200.00 15.94%

MCX Cotton (Rs/Bale) 20770.00 20650.00 -0.6% 24280.00 -14.95% 19400.00 6.44%

NCDEX Cocud (Rs/Quintal) 1867.00 1861.00 -0.3% 2043.00 -8.91% 1166.00 59.61%

NCDEX Kapas (Rs/20 kg) 868.00 868.00 0.0% 986.50 -12.01% 854.00 1.64%

MCX Mentha Oil (Rs/kg) 1476.40 1536.40 4.1% 1846.10 -16.78% 1106.00 38.92%

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONS


COMMODITIES

NEWS DIGEST

• Imports of Iranian crude oil by major buyers in Asia hit their lowest in more than five years in November as US sanctions on Iran’s oil exports took effect last month, government and ship-tracking data showed. China, India, Japan and South Korea last month imported about 664,800 barrels per day (bpd) from Iran, according to the data, down 12.7 percent from the same month a year earlier. China’s Iranian oil imports rebounded to close to 390,000 bpd in November, up from about 247,000 bpd in October, the lowest in more than five years.

• The Indian government on Friday doubled export incentives for onion farmers to 10 percent, following steep drops in recent weeks in the prices for onions, a staple food in India. The move will result in better prices for onions in the domestic market.

• India is likely to cut import tax on palm oil, a government source said on Friday, in line with New Delhi’s trade agreements with Southeast Asian countries. Earlier this year, India, the world’s top buyer of vegetable oils, raised the import tax on crude palm oil to 44 percent from 30 percent and lifted the tax on refined palm oil to 54 percent from 40 percent. India imports palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia.

• China’s customs administration began allowing rice imports from the US effective

• Dec. 27, according to a statement posted on the customs authority’s website on Friday. Imports of brown rice, polished rice and crushed rice from the US are now permitted, as long as the cargoes meet China’s inspection standards and are registered with the United States Department of Agriculture, according to the statement.

• A measure of US consumer confidence posted its sharpest decline in more than three years in December, rattling investors already nervous about the prospect that a global economic slowdown was spilling over into the United States. In a sign households were growing more worried about the economy, the Conference Board on Thursday said its consumer confidence index fell this month by 8.3 points to a reading of 136.4, the largest one-month drop since July 2015.

WEEKLY COMMENTARY

• Crude oil prices rebounded on Friday, recovering slightly from heavy losses this week, but remained close to the lowest levels in over a year as rising US inventories and concern over global economic growth rattled markets.

• Gold scaled a six-month peak on Friday, supported by a weaker dollar, worries over global economic growth and stock market tumult, for a second consecutive week of gains. Gold prices rose as market sentiment soured anew, weighing on bond yields and cooling US Federal Reserve rate hike bets. That buoyed the appeal of non-interest-bearing bullion.

• Copper on Friday posted its first weekly gain in five weeks as a rebound on global equity markets revived interest in riskier assets and a weaker dollar made metal cheaper for buyers with other currencies. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was up 0.7 percent at $6,029 a tonne at 1141 GMT and up 0.6 percent this week.

• Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher on Friday for a second straight day of gains and tracking strength in soy oil on the Chicago Board of Trade. The benchmark palm oil contract for March delivery 1FCPOc3 on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange closed up 0.8 percent at 2,121 ringgit ($511.08) a tonne. The contract, however, declined 1.7 percent this week after two consecutive weekly gains. Palm is up tracking soy oil, but the stronger ringgit is limiting gains. A strengthening of the Malaysian ringgit, palm oil’s traded currency, usually makes the edible oil more expensive for foreign buyers. The ringgit strengthened by 0.4 percent to 4.1500 per dollar on Friday, its sharpest gain in over three weeks.

MCX CRUDE MCX NATURAL GAS

MCX CRUDE- PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST MCX NATURAL GAS – PRICE, VOLUME & OPEN INTEREST

3500

3550

3600

3650

3700

3750

3800

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

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ec

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Volume Open Interest Price (INR/Bbl)

230

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330

0

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40000

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11-Dec 13-Dec 17-Dec 19-Dec 21-Dec 26-Dec

Open Interest Volume Price (INR/MMBTU)

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

14-Dec 16-Dec 18-Dec 20-Dec 22-Dec 24-Dec 26-Dec 28-Dec

$/B

BL

-0.2

-0.18

-0.16

-0.14

-0.12

-0.1

-0.08

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0 13-Dec

14-D

ec

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ec

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$/M

MB

tu


COMMODITIES

PRICES OF METALS IN LME/ COMEX/ NYMEX (IN US $)

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Dec 28-Dec % change

Aluminium LME 3M 1907.00 1860.00 -2.46%

Copper LME 3M 5978.00 5972.00 -0.10%

Lead LME 3M 1961.50 2035.50 3.77%

Nickel LME 3M 10875.00 10720.00 -1.43%

Zinc LME 3M 2489.00 2491.00 0.08%

Gold CME FEB 1259.10 1278.10 1.51%

Silver CME MAR 14.70 15.29 4.05%

WTI Crude oil CME FEB 45.42 45.41 -0.02%

Natural Gas CME FEB 3.67 3.64 -0.85%

INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY PRICES

Commodity Exchange Contract 21-Dec 28-Dec % change

Soybean CBOT JAN 909.50 896.25 -1.46%

Soy oil CBOT JAN 27.87 27.31 -2.01%

CPO BMD MAR 2156.00 2104.00 -2.41%

Cotton ICE MAR 73.23 72.03 -1.64%

SPOT PRICES (% CHANGE)

LME WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)

Commodity Previous week This week Change % Change

Copper 129725 130325 600 0.46%

Zinc 130375 130425 50 0.04%

Aluminium 1265250 1266550 1300 0.10%

Lead 107625 107475 -150 -0.14%

Nickel 209052 209070 18 0.01%

SHANGHAI WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)*


Copper 122222 110702 -11520 -9.43%

Zinc 24879 21520 -3359 -13.50%

Aluminium 688825 681045 -7780 -1.13%

WEEKLY STOCK POSITION IN LME (IN TONS)

COMEX WAREHOUSE STOCKS (IN TONS)


Copper 114594 110705 -3889 -3.39%

PROGRESS OF AREA COVERAGE UNDER RABI CROPS AS ON 28.12.2018

S.No. Crops Normal RabiArea (DES)

Normal ofCorresponding

week

2018-192017-18 Difference of 2018-19 over % Increase(+) / decrease (-)over 2018-19

2018-19 2017-18 Normal of Corresponding Week 2017-18 Normal of

Corresponding week 2017-18

1 Wheat 306.29 284.77 277.37 274.16 -7.39 3.22 2.60 1.17

2 Rice 41.87 14.21 11.81 16.45 -2.40 -4.64 -16.88 -28.18

3 Pulses 141.08 135.98 140.67 150.19 4.68 -9.52 3.44 -634.00

a Gram 89.45 88.91 91.64 102.54 2.72 -10.90 3.06 -10.63

b Lentil 13.94 15.22 16.40 16.89 1.19 -0.49 7.79 -2.89

c FieldPea 9.34 9.52 9.97 9.13 0.45 0.83 4.74 9.13

d Kulthi 2.09 3.99 5.05 4.11 1.07 0.94 26.71 22.84

e Urdbean 8.13 6.03 5.87 6.45 -0.16 -0.58 -2.64 -8.95

f Moongbean 9.62 3.24 3.08 2.92 -0.16 0.16 -5.00 5.44

g Lathyrus 4.58 3.75 3.52 3.20 -0.23 0.32 -6.12 10.01

h Other Pulses 3.92 5.34 5.14 4.95 -0.19 0.19 -3.61 3.88

4 Coarse cereals 64.53 52.96 42.22 50.91 -10.74 -8.69 -20.28 -17.07

a Jowar 37.40 32.34 22.46 29.19 -9.88 -6.73 -30.55 -23.05

b Bajra 3.66 0.21 0.11 0.20 -0.10 -0.09 48.37 -46.27

c Ragi 0.32 0.46 0.50 0.62 0.03 -0.13 6.74 -20.47

d Maize 16.51 12.76 12.13 13.64 -0.63 -1.51 -4.94 -11.04

e Barley 6.64 7.18 7.02 7.25 -0.16 -0.23 -2.20 -3.22

5 Oilseeds 80.60 77.18 74.15 74.40 -3.03 -0.25 -3.93 -34.00

a Rapeseed & Mustard 61.25 65.63 65.79 63.82 0.16 1.97 0.24 3.09

b Groundnut 7.85 4.05 3.29 4.26 -0.76 -0.97 -18.84 -22.77

c Safflower 1.62 1.02 0.34 0.72 -0.68 -0.38 -66.25 -52.43

d Sunflower 3.78 2.31 0.97 1.39 -1.34 -0.42 -58.08 -30.28

e Sesamum 3.04 0.47 0.40 0.29 -0.07 0.11 -15.28 38.25

f Linseed 2.93 3.23 3.10 3.63 -0.13 -0.53 4.06 -14.68

g Other Oilseeds 0.15 0.47 0.26 0.30 -0.21 -0.03 43.96 -11.29

Total Crops 63437.00 565.10 546.22 566.11 -18.88 -19.88 -334.00 -3.51

-9.04%

-3.00%

-2.89%

-2.71%

-2.43%

-2.12%

-1.76%

-1.46%

-1.40%

-1.00%

-0.58%

-0.37%

-0.32%

-0.20%

0.31%

0.43%

0.51%

0.53%

0.99%

1.33%

1.38%

1.91%

3.74%

3.88%

4.27%

-10.00% -8.00% -6.00% -4.00% -2.00% 0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00%

Natural Gas

Dhaniya

Guar Gum

Jeera

Aluminum

Nickel

CPO

RM Seed

Wheat

Guar Seed

Cotton

Crude Oil

Cotton Seed Oil Cake

Soy Oil

Castor Seed

Copper

Soybean

Cardamom

Zinc

Gold

Barley

Turmeric

Lead

Silver

Mentha Oil


USD/INR

USDINR is currently trading at 69.95. During the week, it made a high of 70.39 and low of 69.75. The RSI is at 46.80. Moving average of 13 is at 71.84 and 55 is at 68.11. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommending Buy at 69.50-69.60 TP 70.70 SL. 69.10

EUR/INR

EURINR is currently trading at 80.64. During the week, it made a high of 80.78 and low of 79.68. The RSI is trading at 45.69. Moving average of 13 is at 82.26 and 55 is at 80.58. The trend is looking positive for the week. Hence, recommending Buy at 80.20-80.10 TP 81.80 SL 79.60.

GBP/INR

GBPINR is currently trading at 89.17. During the week, it made a high of 89.465 and low of 88.575. The RSI is trading at 40.78. Moving average of 13 is at 92.69 and 55 is at 91.61. The trend is looking bullish for the week. Hence, recommending Buy at 88.60-88.50 TP 90.20 SL 88.00.

JPY/INR

JPYINR is currently trading at 63.70. During the week, it made a high of 63.82 and low of 63.04. The RSI is at 53.09. Moving average of 13 is at 63.96 and 55 is at 61.76. The trend is looking bullish for the week. Hence, recommending Buy at 63.40 TP 64.80 SL 62.60.

TECHNICAL RECOMMENDATIONMARKET STANCE

As widely anticipated, dollar index moved in a tight range, with lack of volumes during the festive season. Although thin volumes, DXY broke its interim support at 96.50 on Friday and traded lower. Weaker than expected US CB Consumer confidence numbers released on Thursday added weakness to the dollar index boosting Euro and Sterling. Combined with Trump’s political pressure on Federal Reserve, weaker US economic data would become another axe to cut down the probability of possible two rate hikes by Fed in 2019. Euro and pound would find relief from dollar weakness after their recent downfall followed by strong US economic data and Hawkish Federal Reserve. Japanese yen also drew its strength from weaker dollar but the gains were limited at 110.00. Japanese economy continued to publish weaker economic data, confirming the signs of the country might be on the edge of recession. In parallel with major currencies, rupee also moved in a sideways to bullish range, thanks to the softer crude prices. Month end demand from importers restricted the gains in rupee during the week. Rupee is likely to trade weaker with a strong resistance at 69.50 in the coming sessions.

NEWS FLOWS OF LAST WEEK

• President Trump tweeted that “the only problem our economy has is the Fed. Fed is like a powerful golfer who can’t score because he has no touch.”

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in December following a modest decline in November. The index now stands at 128.1 (1985=100), down from 136.4 in November.

• Increasing Global risks brought a major impact on Japanese retail sales for November. Industrial output contracts too.

• BOJ policymakers disagreed on the feasibility of allowing bond yields to move more flexibly around the central bank’s zero percent target.

• The US Congress and President Trump failed to agree to a spending bill by last Saturday which resulted in a partial US government shutdown.

• India’s Fiscal Deficit widened to INR 7,166.25 bn, while the budgeted estimates were at INR 6242.76 bn.

• Indian FX Reserves marginally increased to USD 393.29 bn during the week ended on 21 Dec 2018 from 393.12 bn.

CURRENCY

CURRENCY TABLE

Currency Pair Open High Low Close

USDINR 70.18 70.39 69.75 69.95

EURINR 79.80 80.44 79.56 80.24

GBPINR 88.69 89.12 88.40 88.77

JPYINR 63.21 63.68 62.92 63.45

DXY 97.43 97.46 96.17 96.95


ECONOMIC GAUGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK

GMT Start Date Local Time Country Indicator Name Period Poll Prior Unit Prior

2 Jan 19:25 United States Redbook MM W 29 Dec 0.1 Percent 218.5

2 Jan 19:25 United States Redbook YY W 29 Dec 7.8 Percent 1.668

31 Dec 06:30 China (Mainland) NBS Non-Mfg PMI Dec 2018 53.4 Diff.Idx -134

31 Dec 06:30 China (Mainland) NBS Manufacturing PMI Dec 2018 49.9 50 Diff.Idx -134

31 Dec 06:30 China (Mainland) Composite PMI Dec 2018 52.8 Diff.Idx 0.2

31 Dec 21:00 United States Dallas Fed Mfg Bus Idx Dec 2018 17.6 Index 6.2

2 Jan 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Mfg PMI Final Dec 2018 50.1 50.2 Diff.Idx -0.1

2 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Mfg Final PMI Dec 2018 51.4 51.4 Diff.Idx 316.4

2 Jan 20:15 United States Markit Mfg PMI Final Dec 2018 53.9 Diff.Idx 227.7

2 Jan 21:00 United States Texas Serv Sect Outlook Dec 2018 11.4 Index 783.7

2 Jan 21:00 United States Dallas Fed Services Revenues Dec 2018 21.4 Index 5.16

3 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Money-M3 Annual Grwth Nov 2018 3.8 3.9 Percent 4.851

3 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Loans to Households Nov 2018 3.2 Percent -0.077

3 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Loans to Non-Fin Nov 2018 3.9 Percent -1.295

3 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Broad Money Nov 2018 12271797 Mln EUR 0.183

3 Jan 18:00 United States Challenger Layoffs Dec 2018 53.073 Thou Person 0.008

3 Jan 18:45 United States ADP National Employment Dec 2018 175 179 Thou Person 1.162

3 Jan 20:15 United States ISM-New York Index Dec 2018 840.8 Index 0.191

3 Jan 20:15 United States ISM NY Biz Conditions Dec 2018 67.8 Index 0.208

3 Jan 20:30 United States Construction Spending MM Nov 2018 0.3 -0.1 Percent 0.423

3 Jan 20:30 United States ISM Manufacturing PMI Dec 2018 58 59.3 Index 2.6

3 Jan 20:30 United States ISM Mfg Prices Paid Dec 2018 58 60.7 Index -0.116

3 Jan 20:30 United States ISM Manuf Employment Idx Dec 2018 58.4 Index -0.02

3 Jan 20:30 United States ISM Manuf New Orders Idx Dec 2018 62.1 Index 22791

3 Jan 02:00 United States Domestic Car Sales Dec 2018 3.95 Mln No. of 1042

3 Jan 02:00 United States Total Vehicle Sales Dec 2018 17.2 17.49 Mln No. of

4 Jan 07:15 China (Mainland) Caixin Services PMI Dec 2018 53.8 Diff.Idx

4 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Serv Final PMI Dec 2018 51.4 51.4 Diff.Idx

4 Jan 14:30 Euro Zone Markit Comp Final PMI Dec 2018 51.3 51.3 Diff.Idx

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone HICP Flash YY Dec 2018 1.8 1.9 Percent

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F&E Flash YY Dec 2018 1.2 1.1 Percent

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY Dec 2018 1 1 Percent

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone HICP-X F, E, A, T Flash MM Dec 2018 -0.3 Percent

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone CPI NSA Dec 2018 104.32 Index

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices MM Nov 2018 -0.2 0.8 Percent

4 Jan 15:30 Euro Zone Producer Prices YY Nov 2018 4.1 4.9 Percent

4 Jan 19:00 United States Non-Farm Payrolls Dec 2018 178 155 Thou Person

4 Jan 19:00 United States Private Payrolls Dec 2018 175 161 Thou Person

4 Jan 19:00 United States Manufacturing Payrolls Dec 2018 20 27 Thou Person

4 Jan 19:00 United States Government Payrolls Dec 2018 -6 Thou Person

4 Jan 19:00 United States Unemployment Rate Dec 2018 3.7 3.7 Percent

4 Jan 19:00 United States Average Earnings MM Dec 2018 0.3 0.2 Percent

4 Jan 19:00 United States Average Earnings YY Dec 2018 3 3.1 Percent

4 Jan 19:00 United States Average Workweek Hrs Dec 2018 34.5 34.4 Hour

4 Jan 19:00 United States Labor Force Partic Dec 2018 62.9 Percent

4 Jan 19:00 United States U6 Underemployment Dec 2018 7.6 Percent

4 Jan 20:15 United States Markit Comp Final PMI Dec 2018 53.6 Diff.Idx

4 Jan 20:15 United States Markit Svcs PMI Final Dec 2018 53.4 Diff.Idx

CURRENCY


Coimbatore Union Bank Activity

Activity@PNB Tirupur Branch Activity@IOB Hathras branch

Activity @Canara Bank, Salem Jabalpur Union Bank Activity

Activity @IOB Vellore Actvity in OBC SALEM branch

DEMATERIALIZATIONIS MANDATORY

As per the notification issued by Ministry of Corporate Affairs, unlisted companies cannot issue physical shares from 2nd October, 2018. They have to issue shares in demat form only.

• Buyback, bonus issue and rights issue cannot be issued by these companies unless securities of company’s promoters, directors, etc. are in dematerialized form.

• Any investor who holds shares in unlisted companies has to get it dematerialized if he wants to transfer shares

• Any investor who wants to buy shares through private placement or avail bonus shares and rights issue has to hold shares in dematerialized form.

All unlisted companies are required to secure ISIN from CDSL or NSDL for each type of security.

Karvy being a pioneer in the financial realm since 3 decades and providing depository and RTA services as well can facilitate the process of dematerialization of existing shares and also offer demat account opening facility.

Q. What is the main objective of a Demat account?

The main objective of a demat account is to facilitate easy trade and transfer of the shares and also enable an investor to get the benefits of corporate actions like bonus shares, dividend, rights issue, etc.

Q. How many accounts can I have?

• You can open more than one Demat Account.

• You can hold shares, debentures, bonds, NSC, KVP in a single Demat Account.

• You can save charges on multiple accounts by consolidating your holdings into one account, if there are no other compelling reasons to keep separate accounts.

Q. Can I take a loan on my demat holding?

1. Yes, you can pledge the securities in your account in favor of a lender to avail a loan.

Q. Is there nomination facility in Demat Account?

• Nomination can be made only by individuals holding beneficiary accounts either singly or jointly.

• The Nominee needs to complete a few formalities with DP and get the securities transferred into his/her account.

STEPS TO TRANSFER SHARESFROM ONE DEMAT ACCOUNT TO ANOTHER

Fill the DIS form & submit to your current broker

Your broker will send request to

depository (NSDL/CDSL)

Depository shall transfer the shares to your new Demat

Account

Shares shall reflect in your new Demat

Account

Investor surrenders the physical certificates to the DP

DP informs the

Depository about the request

DP submits the certificates to the Registrar of the issuer company

Registrar communicates

with the depository to confirm the

request

Dematerialization of the certificates

is done by the Registrar

Registrar informs the

depository about completion of

dematerialization

1 2 3 654

STEPS TO CONVERT PHYSICAL SHARES TO DEMAT

Q. Do I have to contact all companies for any updation in my personal details?

For your demat shares, your one point contact for all the changes/updation is DP.

Q. What precautions should I take to prevent misuse of securities lying in my account?

• Keep DIS book in safe custody.

• When writing an instruction on the DI Slip, strike-out the empty spaces.

• Change your password frequently if you are using internet facility for your Demat Account.

• Before giving Power of Attorney (POA) to any person operating your Demat Account, understand the contents and implication of such POA.

Q. How much do I pay for my Demat Account?

1. You can pay Rs. 650 as an account opening fee and enjoy many exclusive offers*.

Q. Whom should I contact in case of any queries?

1. You can call on our toll free no 18004198283 or write a mail at [email protected].

Q. What all documents are required to Open Demat Account?

1. To open a demat account, you need a mobile number linked to Aadhaar, active mobile number, PAN card, digital signature, canceled personalized cheque.

Q. What if I already have a Demat account with another Depository Participant?

You can open a trading account with us and link it to your existing demat account. Alternately, you can open a new trading and demat account with us, transfer your securities and funds to the new account and close the older account.

Q. Things to check before Opening Demat Account

Before opening a demat account, one should always check the brokerage charges, annual maintenance charges, any other charges if applicable, technology and trading platforms and other supporting value-added features and customer services.

Q. Various Types of Demat Account

At Karvy, we offer customized solutions to meet every investor’s unique requirements. You can opt for only demat or only trading account, demat and trading account with access to trading equity, commodity, currencies, mutual funds and other exchange-traded securities.

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