royal dutch shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

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Royal Dutch Shell plc February 2, 2017 Fourth quarter 2016 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case #makethefuture

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Page 1: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell plc February 2, 2017

Fourth quarter 2016 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case

#makethefuture

Page 2: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer Royal Dutch Shell

Page 3: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 3

Definitions & cautionary note

Reserves: Our use of the term “reserves” in this presentation means SEC proved oil and gas reserves.

Resources: Our use of the term “resources” in this presentation includes quantities of oil and gas not yet classified as SEC proved oil and gas reserves. Resources are consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE) 2P + 2C definitions.

Discovered and prospective resources: Our use of the term “discovered and prospective resources” are consistent with SPE 2P + 2C + 2U definitions.

Organic: Our use of the term Organic includes SEC proved oil and gas reserves excluding changes resulting from acquisitions, divestments and year-average pricing impact.

Shales: Our use of the term ‘shales’ refers to tight, shale and coal bed methane oil and gas acreage.

Underlying operating cost is defined as operating cost less identified items. A reconciliation can be found in the quarterly results announcement.

The companies in which Royal Dutch Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this release “Shell”, “Shell group” and “Royal Dutch Shell” are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Royal Dutch Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words “we”, “us” and “our” are also used to refer to subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These expressions are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular company or companies. ‘‘Subsidiaries’’, “Shell subsidiaries” and “Shell companies” as used in this release refer to companies over which Royal Dutch Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as “joint ventures” and “joint operations” respectively. Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as “associates”. The term “Shell interest” is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in a venture, partnership or company, after exclusion of all third-party interest.

This release contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Royal Dutch Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Royal Dutch Shell to market risks and statements expressing management’s expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as ‘‘anticipate’’, ‘‘believe’’, ‘‘could’’, ‘‘estimate’’, ‘‘expect’’, ‘‘goals’’, ‘‘intend’’, ‘‘may’’, ‘‘objectives’’, ‘‘outlook’’, ‘‘plan’’, ‘‘probably’’, ‘‘project’’, ‘‘risks’’, “schedule”, ‘‘seek’’, ‘‘should’’, ‘‘target’’, ‘‘will’’ and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Royal Dutch Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this release, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell’s products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (l) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; and (m) changes in trading conditions. There can be no assurance that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this release are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Royal Dutch Shell’s 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov ). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward looking statements contained in this release and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this release, February 2, 2017. Neither Royal Dutch Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this release.

With respect to operating costs synergies indicated, such savings and efficiencies in procurement spend include economies of scale, specification standardisation and operating efficiencies across operating, capital and raw material cost areas.

We may have used certain terms, such as resources, in this release that United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov.

Page 4: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 4

Key messages

Cash engines

today’s free cash flow

Growth priorities

deep water and chemicals

Future opportunities

shales and new energies

Create a world class investment case

Grow free cash flow per share, higher ROCE

More resilient and more focused company

RE-SHAPING SHELL

MANAGING THE DOWN-CYCLE

PORTFOLIO PRIORITIES Pulling levers to manage

financial framework

Re-set our costs

Reduce debt

BG integration completed; synergy delivery continues

Page 5: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 5

Transition 2016 + delivery 2017+

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

Business mix underpins results

Downstream + Integrated Gas offsetting Upstream

Underlying CCS earnings 2016 $7 billion

CFFO 2016 $21 billion

Expected Q117 dividend $0.47 per share, unchanged

Continued drive to re-shape Shell

Consolidated BG into Shell

2017 capital investment

Progressing 4 levers: cost reductions, capital spend,

divestments and project start-ups

Leader: value + influence

Reducing our carbon

intensity

Shared value with

society

World-class investment case

FCF/share + ROCE growth

Conservative financial

management

Page 6: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Strong free cash flow and returns

Re-shape Shell Driving strategy in multiple time horizons

CONVENTIONAL OIL + GAS

CHEMICALS

OIL PRODUCTS

DEEP WATER INTEGRATED GAS

OIL SANDS MINING

SHALES NEW ENERGIES

Cash engines: today

Growth priorities: 2016+

Future opportunities: 2020+

Competitive + resilient

Funds dividends + balance sheet

FCF + ROACE pathway

Affordable growth in advantaged positions

Material value + upside

Managed exposure

Path to profitability

Cash engines 2020+

Relentless portfolio high-grading

6

Page 7: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 7

Re-shape Shell

Divestments progress: Gaining momentum

Showa Shell SADAF JV exit UK North Sea assets

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Sale of ~31% of Showa Shell

Sekiyu KK to Idemitsu

~$1.4 billion

Lubricants and fuel brand

licensing agreements

Completed in 2016

Sale of 50% petrochemicals

SADAF joint venture to SABIC

~$0.8 billion

Completion expected in 2017

Showa Shell Sekiyu K.K. Kawasaki Refinery, Japan

Sale of package of UK North

Sea assets to Chrysaor

$3 billion + up to ~$0.8 billion

115 kboe/d production in

2016

Completion expected in 2017

SADAF Petrochemicals facility, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

$30 billion 2016-18 Completed: ~$5 billion Announced: ~$5 billion Advanced progress:

>$5 billion

Page 8: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 8

Re-shape Shell

Capital discipline, supporting growth

Excludes BG acquisition in 2016

Historical BG Capital investment is based on BG’s published 2014 Annual Report

Future opportunities

Growth priorities

Cash engines

$ billion

Capital investment

-$20 billion

Shell BG

30

25

$ billion 2016 2017E 2018

Oil products 4 ~4 3-4

Conventional oil + gas 5 ~4 5-6

Integrated gas 4 ~5 4-5

Oil sands mining <1 <1 <1

Deep water 9 ~7 6-7

Chemicals 2 ~3 3-4

Shales 2 ~2 2-3

New energies <1 <1 <1

Total 27 ~25 25-30

More predictable development flow

Economic resilience of projects

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Page 9: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Shell

Prince Rupert

9

Re-shape Shell

2016: Moving quickly on office footprint

# staff x 1,000

FTE movements

BG

Net reductions

Shell

Calgary

BG

x Office closure

Kitimat Vancouver x x

Houston x

Mexico x

x Trinidad & Tobago

Bolivia

Uruguay

x Tanzania Kenya

Equatorial Guinea

x Cairo

x Tunisia

Stavanger x x Oslo

Astana x

New Delhi x

Mumbai

Myanmar x

x Bangkok

Singapore x

Tokyo x

Brisbane

Perth x

Aberdeen x x Manchester x Reading London

Rio de Janeiro x

Iconic moves London, Houston 25 closures in ‘16/’17

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

x Rotterdam x

Beijing x

x

Page 10: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 10

Portfolio priorities

Delivering growth now

2016 start-up production: once fully ramped-up

2016 start-ups: >300 kboe/d ; 3.9 mtpa LNG

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

BC-10 Ph3 Shell 50%

Gorgon start-up 15.6 mtpa LNG Shell 25%

Kashagan 300 kboe/d Shell 17%

Stones 50 kboe/d Shell 100%

8th FPSO – ‘Saquarema’ 150 kboe/d Shell 25%

9th FPSO – ‘Caraguatauba’ 100 kboe/d Shell 30%

ML South start-up 35 kboe/d Shell 35%

7th FPSO 1st oil – ‘Maricá’ 150 kboe/d Shell 25%

Start-up

Forcados Yokri 50 kboe/d Shell 30%

Gbaran Ubie ph2 150 kboe/d Shell 30%

Geismar AO4 425 ktpa alpha olephins Shell 100%

Malikai 60 kboe/d Shell 35%

Pernis – Solvent deasphalting 7.2 kbpd Shell 100%

Schiehallion redevelopment 125 kboe/d Shell 55%

Scotford HCU debottleneck 14 kbpd Shell 100%

10th FPSO – ‘Lula South’ 150 kboe/d Shell 25%

11th FPSO – ‘Lula North’ 150 kboe/d Shell 25%

Q4 2016

Q4 2016

Q4 2016

Page 11: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 11

Re-shape Shell

Financial performance: On-track

2019-21: 2016 RT $60 scenario, mid-cycle Downstream

*FCF + proceeds from sale of interests in entities while retaining control; 2016 excluding BG cash element

Relentless portfolio high-

grading

2019-21 ~$60

Capital employed

($ bln)

Free cash flow*

($ bln p.a)

ROACE

(%)

~65% 15-20 ~10

~25% ~5 ~10

~5% ~0 <5

20-25

20-25

~5

270-290 20-30 ~10

Capital employed

($ bln end ‘16)

Free cash flow*

($ bln p.a)

ROACE

(%)

~65% 2 5

~25% -4 1

~5% -1 -6

-3

3

5

281 8 3

Capital employed

($ bln end ‘15)

Free cash flow*

($ bln p.a)

ROACE

(%)

~65% 8 12

~20% 0 11

~5% -4 -12

5

0

7

223 7 8

2016 ~$44 2013-15 ~$90

Cash engines

Growth priorities

Future opportunities

Organic FCF

Organic FCF (excl. w/c)

Divestments

Total (incl. Corporate, excl. w/c)

Page 12: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Simon Henry Chief Financial Officer Royal Dutch Shell

Page 13: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

$ billion Q4 2015 Q4 2016

Upstream (1.0) 0.1

Integrated Gas 1.2 0.9

Downstream (CCS) 1.5 1.3

Corporate & non-controlling interest (0.2) (0.5)

CCS net earnings 1.6 1.8

CCS earnings, $ per share 0.25 0.22

Cash flow from operations 5.4 9.2

ROACE (%) 5.2 2.9

Dividends 3.0 3.8

Dividend, $ per share 0.47 0.47

13

Q4 2016

Financial highlights: Strong cash performance

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings Q4 2015 to Q4 2016

Environment Choice

Page 14: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 14

Q4 2016

Earnings and cash flow momentum

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings

Cash flow from operations excluding working capital Cash flow from operations excluding working capital - 4 quarters rolling (RHS)

$ billion

Page 15: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

2016 Reserves performance

2016 RRR 208%

2014-16 RRR 81%

BG Feb’16 ~2.4 billion boe

Reserves life at end 2016 ~9.6 years

15

Preliminary results

SEC proved reserves position

1 Reserves attributable to Royal Dutch Shell shareholders

Billion boe

Reserves performance

2015 2016

(billion boe) 2015 2016 Avg 3-yr

Production 1.1 1.4 1.2

SEC proved reserves1 11.7 13.2 12.7

Reserves life ~10.5 ~9.6 ~10.4

RRR -20% 208% 81%

Page 16: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 16

Integration with BG

BG portfolio is delivering

Thousand boe per day

Increasing production

Thousand boe per day

Queensland LNG

$ billion

Synergies BG

Thousand boe per day

Brazil pre-salt

Majority of synergies captured

Production delivery Re-shaping Shell – learning

BG

LNG Deep water Conventional oil + gas

2.8

4.0 4.5

#

1st LNG Train 1 Dec 2014

T2 start up Nov 2015

Production Number of cargoes delivered in the quarter (RHS)

+30%

Costs Exploration

FPSO Cidade de Caraguatatuba Lapa Field started on the 19th of December.

+70% +100%

Bid announced

Page 17: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

17

Re-shape Shell

Integrated Gas from growth priority to cash engine – Global LNG

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

Million tonnes per annum

LNG volumes

Peru LNG

QG-4

Atlantic LNG Oman

Sakhalin

Malaysia

Sabine Pass

Equatorial Guinea

Pluto NWS

Brunei

QCLNG

Gorgon

LNG liquefaction volumes LNG sales volumes

IOC leadership position

Global footprint

Integrated Gas is >30% capital employed of Shell

Value from optionality

Integrated Gas: earnings + cash flow

Nigeria

Equity capacity Long-term offtake agreement

Spot offtake in 2015-16 FY Deliveries in 2015-16 FY

$ billion

Earnings Cash flow from operations

Page 18: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 18

Improving our Downstream footprint and performance

Earnings and ROACE on CCS basis, excluding identified items

Portfolio change

$ billion

Earnings + ROACE

2016:

Showa Shell

Motiva split

Denmark refining

Malaysia refining

PSPC IPO

Denmark marketing

MLP dropdowns (3)

Resilience

Attr

activ

enes

s

Backbone / grow: Chemicals China LNG for transport Premium fuels + lubes Refinery crude flexibility others

Fix: Netherlands Rheinland Manufacturing Singapore Motiva JV restructuring others

Exit: Australia Denmark marketing Harburg Italy LPG France Norway Selected UK retail sites Tongyi lubricants China Showa Shell Malaysia refining Denmark refining SADAF petrochemicals JV others

completed ROACE (RHS) Refining & trading

Chemicals Marketing

%

Page 19: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 19

Deep water: Growing now Thousand boe per day 2016 delivery good progress to 2020 production

growth to ~900 kboe/d

Reducing break-even: new projects less than

$45/bbl

Brazil pre-salt well below $40/bbl

Structural improvements in capital efficiency and

operating cost reductions

Deep water growth

Strong deep water capabilities combined with advantaged portfolio

2009 BC-10

2014 Mars B Gumusut-Kakap

2010 Perdido

2005 Bonga

2001 Brutus

1999 Ursa

1997 Ram Powell

1996 Mars

2016 Stones Malikai Brazil pre-salt

1994 Auger

Under construction Coulomb Appomattox Kaikias Brazil pre-salt

Brazil Gulf of Mexico Other

Page 20: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 20

Americas shales: Growth to come

Discovered + prospective resources shown at year end 2016; consistent with the Society of Petroleum Engineers 2P (Proved + Probable Reserves) , 2C (Contingent Resources) and 2U (Prospective Resources) definitions.

Material discovered + prospective resources >11

billion boe

25% liquids, 75% gas

Selective acceleration of liquids development

Capital investment $2-3 billion per annum

Permian and Fox Creek growth of ~140 kboe/d

Average break-even price ~$40 per barrel

Thousand boe per day

Production

Western Canada Gas

Western Canada LRS

Appalachia

Permian Argentina

Haynesville Liquids rich

Dry gas

Advantaged positions in Permian and Fox Creek

Improving capital efficiency and reducing unit operating costs

Permian Fox Creek Other

Fox creek

Permian well site

Page 21: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 21

Manage down-cycle

Cash flow priorities 2016-18

Powerful levers to underpin financial framework

Priorities for cash Debt reduction Dividends

Buybacks & capital

investment

1

2

3

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Page 22: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 22

Manage down-cycle

Divestments 2016-2018 2016-2018 completed + announced ($ billion)

2016 Completed Announced

Upstream 1.5 ~3.0

Integrated Gas 0.4 ~0.9

Downstream/Corporate 2.9 ~1.3

TOTAL 4.7 ~5.2

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

$30 billion 2016-18

Completed: ~$5 billion

Announced: ~$5 billion

Advanced progress: >$5 billion

Page 23: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

BG

$25-30 billion

23

Manage down-cycle

Predictable high-quality investment funnel

Excludes BG acquisition in 2016

$ billion

Capital investment

Growth options/exploration Base + short cycle Committed growth projects

58

47

36

27

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Shell + BG C.I. on a cash basis

~25

Planning for $25-$30 billion range

2016 $27 billion

2017 around $25 billion

Focus on economic resilience of projects

-$20 billion

2017E

Page 24: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 24

Manage down-cycle

Reduce operating cost: 20% down in 2 years

Operating costs excluding identified items

$ billion

Underlying operating cost

$10 billion reductions delivered

“Lower for ever” mindset + BG synergies

Divestments, growth, FX impacts

2017 less than $40 billion

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Shell BG

-$10 billion

< $40 billion 39

2016 identified items

Page 25: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

2016 CFFO (RHS)

25

Manage down-cycle

Deliver new projects: ~$10 billion by 2018

BG organic growth from 1.1.2016; LNG volume includes offtake; 2016 RT $60 oil price scenario 2018

Thousand boe per day / mtpa

Shell projects start-ups 2014+

~$10 billion CFFO > 1 million boe/day Cash operating cost

<$15/boe Tax rate ~35%

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

Start-up

$ billion

Gorgon

Cardamom

Permian

Bonga NW

Gumusut-Kakap

Malikai

Stones QCLNG

7-9th FPSO

Kashagan

/ 15

/ 10

/ 5

Production

LNG volume 2018E CFFO (RHS)

Page 26: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 26

Capital investment excludes BG acquisition; BG organic growth from 1.1.2016; *2016 RT $60 oil price scenario 2018

Manage down-cycle

Pulling levers to manage financial framework

$ billion 2015 baseline:

Shell + BG 2016 2017-2018 potential

Operating costs 46 39 (underlying) Multi-billion p.a.

Capital investment 36 27 25-30

Divestments 6 + 5 5 30 over 2016-18

Projects start-up post-2014 (CFFO) n/a >$1 ~10

by 2018*

Divestments Reduce capital investment

Reduce operating costs

Deliver new projects

2016-18 levers

Reducing our cash break-even

Further options available

+/- $10 Brent = ~$5 billion CFFO

Underlying operating costs <$40 billion

Page 27: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer Royal Dutch Shell

Page 28: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 28

Key messages

Cash engines

today’s free cash flow

Growth priorities

deep water and chemicals

Future opportunities

shales and new energies

Create a world class investment case

Grow free cash flow per share, higher ROCE

More resilient and more focused company

RE-SHAPING SHELL

MANAGING THE DOWN-CYCLE

PORTFOLIO PRIORITIES Pulling levers to manage

financial framework

Re-set our costs

Reduce debt

BG integration completed; synergy delivery continues

Page 29: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 29

Questions & Answers

Ben van Beurden Chief Executive Officer

Simon Henry Chief Financial Officer

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Page 30: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Royal Dutch Shell plc February 2, 2017

Fourth quarter 2016 results Re-shaping Shell, to create a world-class investment case

“Let’s make the future”

Page 31: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 31

Q1 2017 Outlook

Q1 – Q1 OUTLOOK: Year-ago baseline reflects Shell’s earnings seasonality

BG fully consolidated, Q116 was 2 months

Integrated gas

Earnings negatively impacted by reduction ~-100 kboe/d

Upstream

Divestment impact: ~-45 kboe/d

Maintenance: ~-40 kboe/d

One additional month of production from BG assets

Downstream

Refinery availability increase

Chemicals availability increase

Divestment impact oil products sales volumes: ~-35 kboe/d

2017 OUTLOOK:

Corporate segment : net charge, excluding the impact of currency exchange rate effects and interest rate movements, of $350 – 450 million in Q1; $1.4 - 1.6 billion 2017

Shell + BG earnings sensitivity:

Brent: $10/bbl Brent +/- ~$5 billion earnings per annum, of which:

Upstream +/- ~$3 billion

Integrated Gas +/- ~$2 billion (4-6 month LNG price lag versus Brent) Henry Hub: $1/mmbtu +/- ~$250 million earnings per annum

Page 32: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Q4 2016

Prices & margins $/barrel

Shell oil & gas realisations

$/barrel

Industry refining margins

$/tonne

Industry chemicals margins

US ethane Western Europe naphtha NE/SE Asia naphtha

US West Coast US Gulf Coast coking Rotterdam complex Singapore

Oil Gas (RHS)

32

$/mscf

Page 33: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 33

Q4 2016

Upstream results

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings Q4 2015 to Q4 2016

Environment Choice

Page 34: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 34

Q4 2016

Integrated Gas results

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings Q4 2015 to Q4 2016

Environment Choice

2.0

0

1.0

Page 35: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 35

Q4 2016

Downstream results

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings Q4 2015 to Q4 2016

$ billion

Earnings mix

Marketing Refining & Trading

Chemicals

Page 36: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

2.75

3.00

3.50

36

Q4 2016

Oil and gas production

Million boe per day

Upstream + Integrated Gas – oil & gas

Million tonnes

LNG liquefaction volumes

Choice: +31%

3.25

3.75

4.00

Page 37: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017 37

2016

Financial highlights

Earnings on CCS basis, excluding identified items

$ billion

Earnings 2015 to 2016

$ billion

Earnings Q4 2015 to Q4 2016

Page 38: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Financial dashboard

Competitive financial data as published. Free cash flow: cash flow from operations less cash used in investing activities. $/ADR for European companies.

ROACE underlying: European companies: CCS basis excluding identified items. US companies: reported earnings excluding special non-operating items. Capital employed on gross debt basis.

%

Gearing

%

ROACE

$/share

Free cash flow per share

%

Total shareholder return

Shell Peer group

3-years: 2014 - 2016 % 2016

38

Page 39: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

$ billion Q4 2016 2016

Beginning cash 20.0 31.8

Earnings 1.6 4.8

Depreciation 6.6 25.0

Working capital / other 1.0 (9.2)

Divestments 3.0 4.7

Capex / other investment (6.1) (23.2)

BG acquisition cash - (11.4)

Shareholder distributions (2.4) (9.9)

Debt / other financing 4.5 6.5

Ending cash 19.1 19.1

39

Q4 2016

Sources and uses of cash

$ billion

2016 Full year

Dividend Capex / other investment

Debt / other financing Divestments

BG acquisition – cash element

Cash flow from operations

Priorities for cash: Debt reduction

Dividends

Buybacks + capital investment

Page 40: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Projects under construction

40

Start up Project Country Shell share (direct &

indirect) %

Peak Production

100% kboe/d

LNG 100% Capacity mtpa

Products Legend Theme Shell Operated

2017-18

Baronia / Tukau Timur Malaysia 40 65 Conventional oil + gas Berbigão** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Clair Ph2 United Kingdom 28 100 Conventional oil + gas Coulomb United States 100 20 Deep water Fox Creek* Canada various 26 Shales Forcados Yokri Interagted Project (FYIP) Nigeria 30 50 Conventional oil + gas Gbaran-Ubie Ph2 Nigeria 30 150 Conventional oil + gas Geismar AO4 United States 100 425 kta AO Chemicals Gorgon T3 Australia 25 5.2 Integrated Gas Lula Extreme South** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Lula North** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Lula South** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Permian* United States various 54 Shales Prelude FLNG Australia 68 131 3.6 1.7 mtpa NGLs Integrated Gas Pernis solvent deasphalting Netherlands 100 7.2 kbpd Oil Products Schiehallion Redevelopment United Kingdom 55 125 Conventional oil + gas Tempa Rossa Italy 25 50 Conventional oil + gas

2019+

Appomattox United States 79 175 Deep water Atapu 1** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Atapu 2** Brazil 25 150 Deep water Kaikias Ph1 United States 80 40 Deep water Nanhai China Chemicals China 50 1200 kta C2 Chemicals Pennsylvania cracker United States 100 1500 kta C2 Chemicals Rabab Harweel Integrated Project Oman 34 40 Conventional oil + gas Southern Swamp AG Nigeria 30 30 Conventional oil + gas

* Permian and Fox Creek production represents Shell entitlement share of production and is the production growth expected between 2016 peak to 2018 peak production

** The Lula, Berbigão, Sururu, Atapu accumulations are subject to unitisation agreements; production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator

Page 41: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017

Pre-FID options

* Production shown is FPSO oil capacity as per operator

41

Phase Project Country Shell share (direct &

indirect) %

Peak Production

100% kboe/d

LNG 100% Capacity mtpa

Products Legend Theme Shell Operated

Select

Bonga Main Integrated Redevelopment Nigeria 55 112 Deep water Libra pilot FPSO* Brazil 20 180 Deep water LNG Canada T3-4 Canada 50 14 Integrated Gas

Define

Bonga South West Nigeria 43 154 Deep water Bokor Malaysia 40 12 Conventional oil + gas

Changbei II China 50 57 Integrated Gas

Lake Charles United States 100 16 Integrated Gas LNG Canada T1-2 Canada 50 14 Integrated Gas Penguins Redevelopment United Kingdom 50 40 Conventional oil + gas Sakhalin T3 Russia 28 69 ~5 Integrated Gas Val d'Agri Ph2 Italy 39 60 Conventional oil + gas Vito United States 63 100 Deep water

Page 42: Royal Dutch Shell plc fourth quarter 2016 results webcast presentation

Royal Dutch Shell February 2, 2017