rogers - diffusion of innovations

8/6/2019 Rogers - Diffusion of Innovations

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DiffusionofInnovations,byEverettRogers(1995)

ReviewedbyGregOrr

March18,2003

Muchhasbeenmadeoftheprofoundeffectofthetippingpoint,thepoint

atwhichatrendcatchesfirespreadingexponentiallythroughthepopulation.The

ideasuggeststhat,forgoodorbad,changecanbepromotedrathereasilyinasocial

systemthroughadominoeffect.Thetippingpointideafindsitsoriginsindiffusion

theory,whichisasetofgeneralizationsregardingthetypicalspreadofinnovations

withinasocialsystem.Inanefforttojudgethetruthandpowerofepidemic

spreadingoftrends,IreadEverettRogerssscholarlyandscientificDiffusionof

Innovations(1995),whichhasbecomethestandardtextbookandreferenceon

diffusionstudies.WhatIfindinthiscomprehensiveandeven-handedtreatmentis

aninsightfulexplanationoftheconditionsthatindicatethataninnovationwillreach

themuch-hypedtippingpoint.Inthisreview,Iwilloutlinethesebasic

characteristicsofaninnovationanditscontextthatcorrelatewithitsdiffusion.

Furthermore,Iwillshowthewaysinwhichtheseunderstandingsimproveour

capacitytotakeefficaciousactiontospeeditup.Atthispoint,Iwillbeableto

evaluatetheclaimthatthetippingpointmakesiteasytospreadchange.

The Mechanism of Diffusion


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Diffusion is the process by which an

innovation is communicated through certain

channels over time among the members of asocial system (5). Given that decisions are

not authoritative or collective, each member

of the social system faces his/her own

innovation-decision that follows a 5-step

process (162):1)

Knowledgepersonbecomesawareofaninnovationandhassomeideaofhowitfunctions,

2) Persuasionpersonformsafavorableorunfavorableattitudetowardtheinnovation,

3) Decisionpersonengagesinactivitiesthatleadtoachoicetoadoptorrejecttheinnovation,

4) Implementationpersonputsaninnovationintouse,5) Confirmationpersonevaluatestheresultsofaninnovation-decision

alreadymade.

Themoststrikingfeatureofdiffusiontheoryisthat,formostmembersofasocial

system,theinnovation-decisiondependsheavilyontheinnovation-decisionsof

theothermembersofthesystem.Infact,empiricallyweseethesuccessful

spreadofaninnovationfollowsanS-shapedcurve(23).Thereis,afterabout10-

25%ofsystemmembersadoptaninnovation,relativelyrapidadoptionbythe

remainingmembersandthenaperiodinwhichtheholdoutsfinallyadopt.Iwill

reviewRogerssassessmentofthefactorsaffectingtheadoptionofaninnovation


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withthegoalofelucidatinghowtheearlieradoptersofaninnovationprofoundly

affecttheinnovation-decisionsoflateradopters.

Theinnovation-decisionismadethroughacost-benefitanalysiswherethe

majorobstacleisuncertainty.Peoplewilladoptaninnovationiftheybelievethatit

will,allthingsconsidered,enhancetheirutility.Sotheymustbelievethatthe

innovationmayyieldsomerelativeadvantagetotheideaitsupersedes(208).How

cantheyknowforsurethattherearebenefits?Also,inconsiderationofcosts,

peopledeterminetowhatdegreetheinnovationwoulddisruptotherfunctioning

facetsoftheirdailylife.Isitcompatiblewithexistinghabitsandvalues?Isithard

touse?Thenewnessandunfamiliarityofaninnovationinfusethecost-benefit

analysiswithalargedoseofuncertainty.Itsoundsgood,butdoesitwork?Willit

break?IfIadoptit,willpeoplethinkImweird?

Sincepeopleareonaveragerisk-averse,theuncertaintywilloftenresultina

postponementofthedecisionuntilfurtherevidencecanbegathered.Butthekeyis

thatthisisnotthecaseforeveryone.Eachindividualsinnovation-decisionis

largelyframedbypersonalcharacteristics,andthisdiversityiswhatmakes

diffusionpossible.Forasuccessfulinnovation,theadopterdistributionsfollowa

bell-shapedcurve,thederivativeoftheS-shapeddiffusioncurve,overtimeand

approachnormality(257).Diffusionscholarsdividethisbell-shapedcurveto

characterizefivecategoriesofsystemmemberinnovativeness,where

innovativenessisdefinedasthedegreetowhichanindividualisrelativelyearlierin

adoptingnewideasthanothermembersofasystem.Thesegroupsare:1)

innovators,2)earlyadopters,3)earlymajority,4)latemajority,and5)laggards


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(262).Thepersonalcharacteristicsandinteractionofthesegroupsilluminatesthe

aforementioneddominoeffect.

Innovatorsareventuresometypesthatenjoybeingonthecuttingedge(263).

Theinnovationspossiblebenefitsmakeitexciting;theinnovatorsimaginethe

possibilitiesandareeagertogiveitatry.Theimplementationandconfirmation

stagesoftheinnovatorsinnovation-decisionsareofparticularvaluetothe

subsequentdecisionsofpotentialadopters.

Earlyadoptersusethedataprovidedbytheinnovatorsimplementationand

confirmationoftheinnovationtomaketheirownadoptiondecisions.Iftheopinion

leadersobservethattheinnovationhasbeeneffectivefortheinnovators,thenthey

willbeencouragedtoadopt.Thisgroupearnsrespectforitsjudicious,well-

informeddecision-making,andhencethisgroupiswheremostopinionleadersina

socialsystemreside(264).Muchofthesocialsystemdoesnothavetheinclination

orcapabilitytoremainabreastofthemostrecentinformationaboutinnovations,so

theyinsteadtrustthedecisionsmadebyopinionleaders.Additionally,muchofthe

socialsystemmerelywantstostayinstepwiththerest.Sinceopinionleader

adoptionisagoodindicatorthataninnovationisgoingtobeadoptedbymany

others,theseconformity-lovingmembersareencouragedtoadopt(319).

Soalargesubsectionofthesocialsystemfollowssuitwiththetrusted

opinionleaders.Thisisthefabledtippingpoint,wheretherateofadoptionrapidly

increases.Thedominoeffectcontinuesas,evenforthosewhoarecautiousorhave

particularqualmswiththeinnovation,adoptionbecomesanecessityasthe

implementationoftheinnovation-decisionsofearlieradoptersresultinsocial


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and/oreconomicbenefit.Thosewhohavenotadoptedlosestatusoreconomic

viability,andthiscontextualpressuremotivatesadoption(265).

Thelastadopters,laggards,caneitherbeverytraditionalorbeisolatesin

theirsocialsystem.Iftheyaretraditional,theyaresuspiciousofinnovationsand

ofteninteractwithotherswhoalsohavetraditionalvalues.Iftheyareisolates,their

lackofsocialinteractiondecreasestheirawarenessofaninnovationsdemonstrated

benefits(265).Ittakesmuchlongerthanaverageforlaggardstoadoptinnovations.

Sowehaveseenpotentialadoptersuncertaintyaboutaninnovationis

assuagedthroughastepwisesocialprocess.Thetippingpointismarkedbyopinion

leaderadoption.Well-informedopinionleaderscommunicatetheirapprovalor

disapprovalofaninnovation,basedontheinnovatorsexperiences,totherestofthe

socialsystem.Themajorityrespondsbyrapidlyadopting.Thisanalysissuggests

thatthespreadofaninnovationhingesonasurprisinglysmallpoint:namely,

whetherornotopinionleadersvouchforit.

Affecting the Diffusion of an Innovation Nowthatweknowthemechanismsofdiffusion,wehaveabasisfor

consideringwhateffortsaremostsuccessfulinencouragingthespreadofan

innovation.Itusedtobeassumedthatthemassmediahaddirect,immediate,and

powerfuleffectsonthemassaudience(284).Butdiffusiontheoryarguesthat,since

opinionleadersdirectlyaffectthetippingofaninnovation,apowerfulwayfor

changeagentstoaffectthediffusionofaninnovationistoaffectopinionleader


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attitudes.Iwillexaminethepotencyofthemassmediaandpersuasionofopinion

leadersinencouragingthediffusionofaninnovation.

Themassmediasmostpowerfuleffectondiffusionisthatitspreads

knowledgeofinnovationstoalargeaudiencerapidly(285).Itcanevenleadto

changesinweaklyheldattitudes.Butstronginterpersonaltiesareusuallymore

effectiveintheformationandchangeofstronglyheldattitudes(311).Researchhas

shownthatfirmattitudesaredevelopedthroughcommunicationexchangesabout

theinnovationwithpeersandopinionleaders.Thesechannelsaremoretrusted

andhavegreatereffectivenessindealingwithresistanceorapathyonthepartofthe

communicatee.

Persuadingopinionleadersistheeasiestwaytofomentpositiveattitudes

towardaninnovation.Rogersexplainsthatthetypesofopinionleadersthatchange

agentsshouldtargetdependonthenatureofthesocialsystem.Socialsystemscan

becharacterizedasheterophilousorhomophilous.Ononehand,heterophilous

socialsystemstendtoencouragechangefromsystemnorms.Inthem,thereismore

interactionbetweenpeoplefromdifferentbackgrounds,indicatingagreater

interestinbeingexposedtonewideas.Thesesystemshaveopinionleadershipthat

ismoreinnovativebecausethesesystemsaredesirousofinnovation(289).Onthe

otherhand,homophiloussocialsystemstendtowardsystemnorms.Most

interactionwithinthemisbetweenpeoplefromsimilarbackgrounds.Peopleand

ideasthatdifferfromthenormareseenasstrangeandundesirable.Thesesystems

haveopinionleadershipthatisnotveryinnovativebecausethesesystemsare

aversetoinnovation(288).


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Forheterophiloussystems,changeagentscanconcentrateontargetingthemost

eliteandinnovativeopinionleadersandtheinnovationwilltrickle-downtonon-

elites.Ifaneliteopinionleaderisconvincedtoadoptaninnovation,therestwill

exhibitexcitementandreadinesstolearnandadoptit.Thedominoeffectwill

commencewithenthusiasmratherthanresistance.

Forhomophiloussystems,however,encouragingthediffusionofaninnovationis

afarmoredifficultbusiness.Changeagentsmusttargetawidergroupofopinion

leaders,includingsomeofthelesselite,becauseinnovationsarelesslikelyto

trickle-down.Opinionleaderswhoadoptinnovationsinhomophiloussystems

aremorelikelytoberegardedassuspiciousand/ordismissedfromtheiropinion

leadership.Often,opinionleadersinhomophiloussystemsavoidadopting

innovationsinhopesofprotectingtheiropinionleadership(295).Generally,in

homophiloussystems,opinionleadersdonotcontrolattitudesasmuchaspre-

existingnormsdo.Changeagentsmust,ifpossible,communicatetoopinion

leadersaconvincingargumentinfavoroftheinnovationthataccentuatesthe

compatibilityoftheinnovationwithsystemnorms.Theopinionleaderswillthen

beabletousethisargument,whichwillhopefullyresonatewiththemasses,to

supporttheirownadoptiondecision.

Successfuleffortstodiffuseaninnovationdependoncharacteristicsofthe

situation.Toeliminateadeficitofawarenessofaninnovation,massmediachannels

aremostappropriate.Tochangeprevailingattitudesaboutaninnovation,itisbest

topersuadeopinionleaders.Further,whatwefindisthatinhomophiloussocial

systemsarelikelytofrustratechangeagentswiththeirresistancetoinnovation.It


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isonlyforheterophiloussocialsystemsthatpushinganinnovationtotheelusive

tippingpointisarelativelyeasythingtodo.

Conclusion

Whyhasthetippingpointbecomesuchapopularidea?Carefullyresearched

analysishasshownthatitisanundeniablephenomenonthatonceunderstood

providessimpleandvaluableprescriptionsforeffortsinencouragingdiffusion.

Thereseemtobemanyinnovationsthatarevaluableforthemasses,yettodate

haveresisteddiffusion.Forexample,westillusetheQWERTYkeyboarddespitethe

developmentofanotherkeyboardthatallowsmuchfastertypingfortheaverage

user.Also,therearemanysocialidealsthatalargenumberofpeoplearevery

interestedinspreading.Inparticularsituations,suchasourownrelatively

heterophilousnation,theresearchsuggeststhatthereisareasonablechancethat,

givenconcertedeffort,supportforthesevaluableproductsandideasmaybepushed

tothetippingpoint.Andasourcommunicationnetworksbecomedenserthrough

technologicaladvance,thediffusionprocessishappeningfasterandfaster.Soit

seemsthatunderstandingandutilizingdiffusionnetworkscanaidstrategyaimedat

quicklyinducingsystem-widechange.

rogers - diffusion of innovations

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