robert h. tai university of virginia july 9 - 11, 2008
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Texas Regional Collaboratives for Excellence in Science and Mathematics Teaching Fourteenth Annual Meeting Planning Ahead and Looking Back: Connections Between Early Science Interest and Science-related Careers (and a few other things you might find interesting). Robert H. Tai - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Texas Regional Collaboratives for Excellence in Science and Mathematics Teaching
Fourteenth Annual Meeting
Planning Ahead and Looking Back: Connections Between Early Science Interest and Science-related Careers (and a few other things you might find interesting)
Robert H. TaiUniversity of Virginia
July 9 - 11, 2008
National Research Council Report raises questions about the United States continuing to maintain its dominance as a world leader in science and technology
A commonly held belief among many scientists is that childhood interest plays
an important role in guiding and sustaining persistence in science study.
Can we offer an analysis that would provide convincing evidence for this
conclusion?
National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Public Release database
• Data collected from 1988 - 2000, a 12 year span
• Participants’ age ranged from 14 - 26 years old
• Data analysis used a subsample which inlcuded 3359 students
What do you want to be when you grow up?
Career Expectations in 8th grade
? ?
Majors of Earned College Baccalaureate Degrees
What kind of work do you expect to be doing when you are 30 years old? (MARK THE ANSWER THAT COMES CLOSEST TO WHAT YOU EXPECT TO BE DOING. IF YOU HAVE TWO OR THREE THINGS YOU THINK YOU MAY BE DOING, DO NOT CHOOSE MORE THAN ONE ANSWER. INSTEAD, MAKE ONE BEST GUESS.)
Multinomial Logistic Regression• Compared three outcome groups
– Physical Science/Engineering degrees– Life Science degrees– Nonscience degrees
• Two comparisons– Nonscience to Physical Science/Engineering – Nonscience to Life Science
• Question Predictor - Career Expectation• Controls
– Achievement– Demographic background– Academic characteristics– Parental background
Science Expecters
Nonscience Expecters
Science Expecters
Nonscience Expecters
Expected Science-related Career
Did Not Expect Science-related Career
Conclusions• Students’ future career aspirations in 8th grade
are a significant predictor of their likelihood to earn baccalaureate degrees in science-related fields based on this analysis
• Academic achievement as measured by a standardized mathematics test is NOT as consistently significant as 8th grade career aspirations in predicting science–related college degree concentrations in this analysis
Additional research findings from more recent work
What do scientists and graduate students have to say about their experiences?
• National survey study of chemists, physicists, and graduate students
• 30% response rate
• Analysis shows data is representative of chemists and physicists
Q18:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
K-5th grade 6-8th grade 9-10th grade 11-12th grade first 2 yr college after 2 yr of college
When did you first become interested in science?
Percent
studentscientist
For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they form their initial interest in science?
• 70% of scientists and 69% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades K-8
• 24% of both scientists and graduate students reported developing their interest in science in Grades 9 - 12
• 6% of scientists and 7% of graduate students reported developing their interest in science in College
Q19:145 - When do scientists and graduate students say they first became interested “science”?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
K-5th grade 6-8th grade 9-10th grade 11-12th grade first 2 yr college after 2 yr of college
When did you first become interested in chemistry/physics?
Percent
studentscientist
For scientists and graduate students in chemistry and physics, when do they
form their initial interest in their career field?
• 29% of scientists and 23% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades K-8
• 52% of scientists and 56% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in Grades 9-12
• 18% of scientists and 21% of graduate students reported developing their interest in chemistry/physics in College
New Analysis on Mathematics and Science Advanced Placement Using NELS:88 -
Restricted Access Database(in collaboration with C. Q. Liu & X. Fan)
• National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 - Restricted Access transcript data
• Respondents tracked beginning in 8th grade for 12 years, 1988 - 2000
• Focused on College graduates (4-year degrees) - Science-related v. Nonscience/Social Science Degrees
• Advanced Placement program participation - science & mathematics exams
Descriptive Statistics
Baccalaureate Degree
AP Calculus Exams AP Science Exams
Took Exam
Did Not Took Exam Did Not
Physical and Life Science-related
62 785 82 935
Nonscience/Social Science
56 1833 57 1476
Table 1a: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students in 1992
Descriptive Statistics
Table 1b: Math/Science AP and non-AP Students
AP Calculus Exams AP Science Exams
Took Exam Did Not Took Exam Did Not
Standardized Test Scores
Base-Year Math Mean (sd) n
54.9 (7.6)127
41.6 (10.6)3952
56.2 (6.8)152
42.5 (11.2)3539
Base Year ScienceMean (sd) n
24.3 (4.4)124
20.6 (4.5)3945
25.9 (3.9)152
20.9 (4.6)3539
SAT CompositeMean (sd) n
1185.0 (152.7)105
943.2 (180.6)1919
1236.8 (128.9)129
968.9 (197.5)1752
GPA in College Courses
Introductory MathMean (sd) n
3.3 (0.8)127
2.6 (0.9)3952
Level-1 ScienceMean (sd) n
3.1 (0.7)152
2.5 (0.9)3539
Logistic Regression
Outcome• Earned Science-related Baccalaureate (0, 1)
Predictors• Took AP science exam (0, 1)• Took AP math exam (0, 1)• Career Expectation (0, 1)• Demographic Background• Achievement Test Scores
Table 2: Logistic Regression Models of AP math and science exams predicting likelihood of earning Science-related Baccalaureate Degree (N=3863, Model 1 Pseudo R2 = 0.0450, *** p < 0.001, ** p < 0.01)
Odds Ratios for Nested Models
Model 1 Model 1a Model 1b Model 1c
Demographic Background
Included Included Included Included
Achievement Test Scores
Included Included Included Included
Career Expectation OR=1.98*** OR=1.96*** OR=1.97*** OR=1.93***
Took AP math exam OR=1.83** OR=1.69**
Took AP science exam OR=1.61** OR=1.30
Pseudo R2 0.007 0.003 0.007
Conclusions from new analysis using NELS:88 - Restricted Access Database
• Career Expectation remains a robust predictor for earning science-related baccalaureate degrees
• Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics and Science associated with greater likelihood to earn science-related baccalaureate degrees
• AP Mathematics participation subsumes AP Science participation
• Career Expectation and Advanced Placement participation in Mathematics or Science appear to be complementary
Association between High School science and mathematics and college science performance
• Sadler, P. M. & Tai, R. H. (2007). The Two High-School Pillars Supporting College Science. Science. 317(5837), 457 - 458.
• Project FICSS: Factors Influencing College Science Success
• Parallel analyses of three samples of introductory college science classes in biology (n = 2650), chemistry (n=3561), and physics (n=2263)
• Cross-disciplinary learning of high school biology, chemistry, and physics does not appear to be associated with higher levels of performance in introductory college science courses
hs bio hs chem hs phys
Broad Influence of Mathematics (i.e. Calculus)
• However, mathematics (specifically, high school calculus) has a significant association across introductory college science courses in all three disciplines, even biology
hs calculus
Recommendations
• Promoting Interest in Science is Important• Early Interest in Science is very important, but
continuing to promote interest in high school is also very important
• High test scores Do Not replace Interest• Advanced Placement in Calculus is not the only
answer, but it is helpful• Focus on steady advancement in K-12
mathematics culminating in Calculus will help promote higher achievement in introductory college science courses.
The national focus on secondary and post-secondary education appears to overlook
pre-secondary science education.
Given the apparent importance of the connection between
science interest (career expectations) and earned baccalaureate degrees in
science-related disciplines, reassessment of the
importance of the role of interest in science education
appears to be in order.
Thank you.
Robert H. Tai, [email protected]
Sections of the science “pipeline”
Interest in Science
Degrees in Science
Careers in Science
Many important questions are left unanswered.
• How do we best generate interest in science early within a child?
• How might an interest in science be translated into a child’s vision of her/his future?
• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to help guide our practices?
• What kind of evidence do we need to produce to convince an open-minded skeptic?
What is convincing evidence?
How do we know this interest came from your program and not from somewhere else?
How do we know that without your program, these children wouldn’t have arrived at their decision on their own?
What evidence do we have indicating that AYS-type programs are necessary?
Are Academies for Young Scientists
models for the future?
The answer to this question will not be based on whether or not your programs inspired children’s interest in science.
The answer to this question will be based on whether or not we can generate
convincing evidence.
Conclusions, again in English
Early Interest in Science
Degrees in Science
Careers in Science