west virginia political outlook: 2012 trends & tendencies & impact presentation for west...
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WEST VIRGINIA POLITICAL OUTLOOK: 2012 TRENDS & TENDENCIES & IMPACT
Presentation for West Virginia Oil & Natural Gas Association Dr. Robert Rupp West Virginia Wesleyan College [email protected]
WV ENERGY/ WV POLITICS
• Concrete Abstract
LIKE POLITICS, ENERGY IN WEST VIRGINIA IS ALSO IN TRANSITION
ENERGY REVOLUTION:EXTRACTION ECONOMICS
• Oil Boom
• Coal Boom
• Marcellus Shale Boom
• Characteristics of WV Politics• 3 Trends in WV Politics• 3 Trends in Energy• Balance Sheet of Marcellus Shell• Benefits/Concerns• Conclusion- Intersection of Energy & Politics
WEST VIRGINIA- UNIQUE POLITICS
• Everything in West Virginia is political, except
Politics which is Personal”
We are a state that takes its politics seriously and practices it somewhat differently.
COMPARISON OF WEST VIRGINIA & LOUISIANA
Louisiana Questions1-Who is your Mama?2-Are you Catholic?3-How do you fix your gumbo?
West Virginia Questions1-Who is your Daddy?2-Are you Methodist?3- Food ???
WEST VIRGINIA IDENTITY
• Not South- Carved out of a State• Have Statue of Lincoln• Not North• Not “Mid-Atlantic”- no natural lake
KEY: BASED ON TOPOGRAPHY NOT GEOGRAPHY
Mountains: Identity + Resources
• Energy & Politics share 1 thing• Our industry is in historic Transition
3 STATEWIDE TRENDS& THEIR IMPACT ON POLITICS
1-Geography
2-Commerce3-Partisanship
STATEWIDE TREND- #1
•1. Changing GEOGRAPHIC/$ Center
------ Moving North and EastPopulation-Past Decade -Kanawha - 3.5% -Monongalia + 18%/Jefferson +27%Political ImportanceThe party that recognizes this trend & acts in next
decade will control the state
Legislature does not reflect this trend• Southern counties = disproportionate power
STATEWIDE TREND #2
2. Changing face of Commerce -RETAILWHOLESALE
Political Importance
-Personal contactRobo-calls, ads
The party that recognizes this trend & acts in next decade will control the state
STATEWIDE TREND- #3
2. Changing PARTISAN TREND ------ More Republican But slowed by :• 1) #’s = 2 to 1 Democrat registration
• 2) “Big Tent” of Democratic party
• 3) Ideology = West Virginia Schizophrenia• a. Reliance on Government Program/New
Deal b. Suspicion of Government- Libertarian
• -Suspicious of Obamacare
Status Quo-2012 PARTISAN WV = Split-Level StateCharleston- DemocratWashington- Republican Presidential since 2000 Congress- Capito-2000/McKinley-2010 Senate- Rockefelle*Manchin*
HOW THE 3 STATETRENDS IMPACT ON ENERGY
1-Geography
2-Commerce3-Partisanship
STATEWIDE TREND- #1
1.Changing GEOGRAPHIC/$ Center ------ Moving North and East
Implications for ONG & Coal in WV
STATEWIDE TREND #2
2. Changing face of Commerce : RETAIL WHOLESALE Home HardwareWalmart
? ENERGY- Consolidation Local individual -- Big Companies
Implications for ONG
STATEWIDE TREND- #3
3. Slow evolution in PARTISAN TREND ------ More Republican
Implications for ONG For Now: Must deal with Split-level
Uncertainty- State/National
BALANCE ????
•The Economic Promise and
• The Environmental Concerns
BENEFITS FOR WEST VIRGINIA
• BENEFITS FOR NATION• Reduce dependence on Middle East oil• Reduce green house gas emissions
• BENEFITS FOR WEST Virginia• Creates Jobs • Creates Revenue • Creates potential for other industries:• Ethane-- “Cracked” into Ethylene.
•MARCH 16.2012 Ethane cracker plant might come to Institute
•CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- South Charleston-based Aither Chemicals is expected to announce plans next week to build a $300 million ethane catalytic "cracker" plant that would employ up to 200 workers at the Institute Industrial Park by 2015,
CONCERNS OF WEST VIRGINIANS
•The Economic Promise and
• he Environmental Concerns
•The economic promise and environmental questions have invited comparisons to West Virginia’s coal industry.
•Mining has brought much-valued jobs and revenues to the Mountain State, but its long history has also included incidents of ruined land, poisoned water and mistreated workers.
•
• Fool me once shame on you, • Fool me twice, _________
• 2012 is not 1882• Knowledge is Different- i.e. Incomplete • Communication is Different • Players are Different-land owners,
environmentalists, government, business,etc.
CONCERNS
• Landowners• Water• Roads• Worker
Horizontal Drilling+/- 3,000–4,000 ft of horizontal drilling length
FOOTPRINT ON LAND:
• Landowner rights• ? Mineral rights/surface rights• Watch Test case-Wheeling• Landowner Land KEY: Selective Impact-- Localized Regulation-Buffer Landowner’s Neighbor- Notification
FOOTPRINT ON WATER
Not new- 1940 2000-take off
Product is safe - 99.51% water Amount of it• -Chemicals in kitchen Amount & Control
Record- never, none Little research• - Lisa Jackson quote
•May 2, 2012•Drilling chemicals could move quickly to aquifers, study says
•CHARLESTON, W.Va. -- Chemicals injected into the ground by natural gas drillers could migrate toward drinking water supplies much more quickly than previously thought, according to a new study that raises questions about West Virginia's ongoing Marcellus Shale boom.
•Industry officials argue that fracking chemicals cannot possibly pollute drinking water, because fracking occurs far below aquifers used for wells and chemicals would take far too long to ever possibly migrate through thick layers of rock.• The new study by Myers is the first scientific paper to strongly question that
thesis.
FOOTPRINT ON ROADS
Marshall County Sheriff told U.S. Senate committee : "We were never prepared for the onslaught of heavy trucks that would monopolize our roads, damage our property, and destroy our roads.” "The drivers are not from here so they do not care what happens as a result of their reckless operations.“
Versus: Chesapeake plans to spend another $93 million this year
WORKERS
•Rockefeller pressed Randy Albert, chief operating officer for CONSOL Energy's gas operations, about why the industry doesn't improve trucking safety by hiring more West Virginia drivers who know the local roads.•Albert said that CONSOL tries to employ West Virginians, but added, "I can't mandate to my subcontractors that they hire West Virginians."•Rockefeller shot back, "You know, I think you can. And I think most of them aren't West Virginians. I would think that you probably could do that."
CONCLUSION
• Understand 3 Things about Energy in West Virginia and its relation with Politics
• 1-Revolutionary Dimension• Historic Time• 2-Dynamic Tension- • Jobs v. Environment• Cost of v. Need for regulation• 3- Political Intersection• Government= Arena• Your Voices heard
WEST VIRGINIA POLITICAL OUTLOOK: 2012 TRENDS & TENDENCIES & IMPACT
Presentation for West Virginia Oil & Natural Gas Association Dr. Robert Rupp West Virginia Wesleyan College [email protected]