Roads & Transit 2007Roads & Transit 2007A Smart Joint Program?A Smart Joint Program?

Financial Considerations

As of April 15, 2007

2

Roads & Transit 2007Currently FundedSound Move Rail

Currently Funded Road Projects

$9.3 billion RTID*Road Program$18.3 billion ST2*Transit Program

This is the comprehensive mapbeing put forward to voters. But let’s break it down into the proposed NEW tax programs.

* Capital costs only.

Tacoma

LakewoodMcCord

AFB

Fort LewisOrting

U of WOverlake

RedmondNorthgate

Shoreline

Edmonds

Woodinville

Lynnwood

Kirkland

Bothell

MonroeMukilteo

LakeStevens

Marysville

Everett

Seattle

Puyallup

Sumner

Auburn

Kent

FederalWay

SeaTac

Tukwila

RainierValley

MercerIsland

Renton

First Hill

CapitalHill

Burien

Issaquah

Bellevue

Arlington

167

167

410

162

161

518

7

509

16

18

509

5

5

405

5

522

520

99

99

405

90

2

522

531

9

5

The ST2 “MaximumRail” Program merelyextends light rail as an overlay of the bestserved express bus routes in the region.

524

This is the $28 billionRoads & Transit Packagecoming in November

Eliminate Currently Funded Rail Projects Eliminate Currently Funded Road Projects

Now Eliminate the RTIDprojects that addressroad congestion

33

Program Capital CostsProgram Capital Costs

RTIDRTID – Original Plan - $18 billion (YOE$)Original Plan - $18 billion (YOE$)

But transit proponents called for a “balanced” Roads and But transit proponents called for a “balanced” Roads and Transit program”Transit program”

– Current Reduced Capital Plan - Current Reduced Capital Plan - $9.3 billion$9.3 billion (YOE$) (YOE$)– Being Shown to Voters as Being Shown to Voters as $6.7 billion$6.7 billion (2006$) (2006$)

ST2ST2– Original Plan Expectation - $9.4 Billion (YOE$)Original Plan Expectation - $9.4 Billion (YOE$)– Current Expanded Plan - Current Expanded Plan - $18.3 billion$18.3 billion (YOE$) (YOE$)– Being shown to Voters as Being shown to Voters as $9.8 billion$9.8 billion (2006$) (2006$)

But These are only the Program Capital Costs

44

YOE$ vs 2006$YOE$ vs 2006$

YOE$ = Project costs inflated to “Year of YOE$ = Project costs inflated to “Year of Expenditure” – the true costs of projectsExpenditure” – the true costs of projects

All highway Mega-project Cost EstimatesAll highway Mega-project Cost Estimatesare being disclosed in YOE$are being disclosed in YOE$

The RTID Financial Plan was Disclosed in January The RTID Financial Plan was Disclosed in January 2007 in terms of actual future Revenue & Expense2007 in terms of actual future Revenue & Expense

Enter: Apple to Orange comparison to make Enter: Apple to Orange comparison to make program costs appear lowerprogram costs appear lower

Sound Transit has influenced the RTID to publicize Sound Transit has influenced the RTID to publicize revenues and costs in terms of 2006$revenues and costs in terms of 2006$

So we are now comparing RTID and ST2 in 2006$ to So we are now comparing RTID and ST2 in 2006$ to our knowledge of Road Projects in YOE$our knowledge of Road Projects in YOE$

55

RTID Financial SummaryRTID Financial Summary

Revenues Taxes $7,900* Bonds 6,240 Other 190 Total $14,330

Expenses Projects $9,280** Finance 4,945 Other 105 Total $14,330

** Being publicized as $6.7 billion.

2008 thru 2027 Post 2027 Debt Service

Remaining Debt Service:Bond Principal - $5,750Bond Interest - $4,200Debt Balance - $9,950Total Tax Collection = $7,900+9,950 = $17,850

Total Program CostThru 2027 - $14,330Interest Bal - $4,200

Grand Total - $18,530

YOE $millions

* Being publicized as $4.7 billion. In effect, half of the programCost is for bond interest.

Source: RTID, January 26, 2007

66

What Does East King Get?What Does East King Get?

$1.1b for I-405 expansion from Renton to Bellevue$1.1b for I-405 expansion from Renton to Bellevue

$380m for I-405/SR-167 HOV Ramp System$380m for I-405/SR-167 HOV Ramp System

$550m to apply to the East King half of the $4.4 billion $550m to apply to the East King half of the $4.4 billion SR-520 Bridge Replacement ProjectSR-520 Bridge Replacement Project

The.. the.. the.. That’s all Folks!The.. the.. the.. That’s all Folks!– $2 billion out of the $18.5 billion RTID$2 billion out of the $18.5 billion RTID

Leaves SR-520 Trans-lake only half fundedLeaves SR-520 Trans-lake only half funded

Does nothing to resolve the SR-520 Redmond MessDoes nothing to resolve the SR-520 Redmond Mess

Leaves I-405 Expansion only half fundedLeaves I-405 Expansion only half funded

Leaves I-5 overloads diverted to I-405Leaves I-5 overloads diverted to I-405

Out of the $18.5 billion RTID Program Ultimate Cost

77

ST2 “Maximized Rail Extension”ST2 “Maximized Rail Extension”

Central Link -- 95% of Capital ProgramCentral Link -- 95% of Capital Program– Extends Link north to Lynnwood, south to Tacoma,Extends Link north to Lynnwood, south to Tacoma,

and east to Bellevue/Overlake – 42 milesand east to Bellevue/Overlake – 42 miles– Adds Rail Streetcar from downtown Seattle to Capital Hill StationAdds Rail Streetcar from downtown Seattle to Capital Hill Station

(Included to compensate for loss of First Hill rail station)(Included to compensate for loss of First Hill rail station)

Sounder -- 2% of Capital ProgramSounder -- 2% of Capital Program– 7 New stations and parking garages/expansions7 New stations and parking garages/expansions

Regional Express -- 3% of Capital ProgramRegional Express -- 3% of Capital Program– Parking Garages in Kenmore and BothellParking Garages in Kenmore and Bothell– Parking Garages at South Kirkland and RentonParking Garages at South Kirkland and Renton– REx Bus Fleet expansion (included in Phase I Fin Plan)REx Bus Fleet expansion (included in Phase I Fin Plan)

The ST-Preferred Capital Program Scenario

88

Losses to Regional ExpressLosses to Regional Express

As of January 2005 there were 80+ projects proposed by As of January 2005 there were 80+ projects proposed by ST member jurisdictions for ST2ST member jurisdictions for ST2

Included were 33 projects to enhance the Phase I Regional Included were 33 projects to enhance the Phase I Regional Express (REx) bus systemExpress (REx) bus system

16 of the REx projects were for East King16 of the REx projects were for East King– A significant enhancement of REx/BRT in the I-405 CorridorA significant enhancement of REx/BRT in the I-405 Corridor– 6 HOV lane access ramp systems and flyer stops6 HOV lane access ramp systems and flyer stops– BAT lanes on SR-522BAT lanes on SR-522

The $1.8 billion for East King REx projects could have The $1.8 billion for East King REx projects could have been financed by existing Phase I taxesbeen financed by existing Phase I taxes

All but 4 of the 33 REx projects were eliminated in All but 4 of the 33 REx projects were eliminated in the push to Maximize Rail Extensionsthe push to Maximize Rail Extensions

99

ST2 Financial SummaryST2 Financial Summary

Revenues ST1 Taxes $2,200 ST2 Taxes $11,700* Bonds 9,800 Grants/Other 1,300 Total $25,000

Expenses Projects $17,300** Admin/O&M 1,500 Finance 5,600 Other 600 Total $25,000

** Being publicized as $9.8 billion.

2008 thru 2027 2028 thru 2057

Remaining Debt Service:Bond Principal - $9,300Bond Interest - $10,200Debt Balance - $19,500

Total Program CostThru 2027 - $25,000Interest Bal - $10,200

Grand Total - $35,200Plus Post-2027 O&M

YOE $millions

* Being publicized as $7.5 billion.Source: MacIsaac estimate based onlimited financial info disclosed by ST.

To be paid by post-2027tax collections.

1010

Roads & Transit Sum thru 2027Roads & Transit Sum thru 2027

Revenues RTID ST2 Combined Taxes $7.9 $13.9 $21.8* Bonds 6.2 9.8 16.0 Grants/Other 0.2 1.3 1.5 Total $14.3 $25.0 $39.3

Expenses Projects $9.3 $17.3 $26.6** Finance Cost 4.9 5.6 10.5 O&M/Other 1.0 2.1 2.2 Total $14.3 $25.0 $39.3

YOE $billions Thru 2027

* Publicized as $12.2 billion.

** Publicized as $16.5 billion.Plus $29.5 billion of DebtService remaining after 2027

1111

ST2 Benefits?ST2 Benefits? ST2 is merely a rail overlay of the already best-ST2 is merely a rail overlay of the already best-

served Seattle-centric express bus transit routesserved Seattle-centric express bus transit routes

““It provides an alternative to being stuck in traffic”It provides an alternative to being stuck in traffic”– Does not provide a transit alternative for anyone not Does not provide a transit alternative for anyone not

already served by transitalready served by transit

““ST2 will increase Sound Transit use by ST2 will increase Sound Transit use by 160,000 rides per day by 2030” 160,000 rides per day by 2030”– That represents 1% of the 16 million daily trips by 2030That represents 1% of the 16 million daily trips by 2030– But 60% of those “new” trips on Sound Transit are But 60% of those “new” trips on Sound Transit are

merely raided from the existing bus systemsmerely raided from the existing bus systems

““Rail provides reliable transit service”Rail provides reliable transit service”– So 2% of trips are on time, and 98% are stuck in traffic So 2% of trips are on time, and 98% are stuck in traffic

in cars and buses?in cars and buses?

1212

ST2 - Wrong Plan for East KingST2 - Wrong Plan for East King

Over 90% of all Central Bellevue Over 90% of all Central Bellevue trips come from the Eastside and trips come from the Eastside and via the I-405 corridorvia the I-405 corridor

East Link will merely overlay East Link will merely overlay existing Routes 550 and 545existing Routes 550 and 545to/from downtown Seattleto/from downtown Seattle

ST2 delays for 20-30 years any ST2 delays for 20-30 years any significant improvement of significant improvement of Eastside job access by public Eastside job access by public transittransit

Should we not demand an ST2 Should we not demand an ST2 plan that better serves our plan that better serves our EASTSIDE transportation needs?EASTSIDE transportation needs?

Central Bellevue 2020Travel Patterns

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51

54

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45 47

52

4348

3637

55

42

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5758

60

59

61

82

81

80

39

3532

32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

74

75

76

77

78

79

79

34

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14

83

4 9

425

24

20

46

65

40

5%

4%

CBD1% 20%

13%

9%

7%

4%

8%

17%

7%

6%

29%Internal

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61

82

81

80

39

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32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

74

75

76

77

78

79

79

34

50

14

83

4 9

425

24

20

46

65

40

T IAZ

51

54

53

45 47

52

4348

3637

55

42

56

5758

60

59

61

82

81

80

39

3532

32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

74

75

76

77

78

79

79

34

50

14

83

4 9

425

24

20

46

65

40

5%

4%

CBD1% 20%

13%

9%

7%

4%

8%

17%

7%

6%

29%Internal

Source: PSRC2001 MTP Update

End of FinancialEnd of FinancialPresentationPresentation

1414

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32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

74

75

76

77

78

79

79

34

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14

83

4 9

425

24

20

46

65

40

CBD0.3%

5%

15%

10%

6%Internal

SUMMARY:84,800 Person Trips62% - East King Co12% - Seattle/North14% - Snoh Co10% - S King/Pierce2% - Kitsap Co

4%

Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.

4%

15%

9%

5%

23%

14.0

%

9%

30%

7%

2020 Home-Work Person Trips ToCENTRAL BELLEVUE

2020 Home-Work Person Trips ToOVERLAKE / MICROSOFT

T IAZ

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45 47

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3637

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13

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21

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15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

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71

7273

74

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79

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4 9

425

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65

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CBD0.1%

14%

SUMMARY:65,800 Person Trips67% - East King Co7% - Seattle/North

13% - Snoh Co10% - S King/Pierce3% - Kitsap Co

Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.

5%

2%

10%

2%Int

22%9%

23%

16%

6%

21%

1515

2020 Transit Mode Share*2020 Transit Mode Share*

Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Update Assumed full 125-mile LRT Master Plan

Total Person Trips 1998 2020

Seattle CBD 22.3% 37.3%

All of Seattle 9.0% 15.0%

Bellevue CBD 1.3% 3.8%

Overlake (MS) 0.1% 0.6%

All Eastside 0.6% 1.4%

Region 2.7% 4.1%

T IAZ

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1

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12

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8

9

27 26

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18

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2830

2910

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68

63

67

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70

71

7273

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75

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77

78

79

79

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4 9

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20

46

65

40I-4

05 N

orth

T =

1.9%

T = 0.5%

T = 1.2%

T =

1.8%

T = 10.9%

I-90/SR-520

SR-520

I-90 East

I-405

Sou

th

Internal2.1%

1616

T IAZ

51

54

53

45 47

52

4348

3637

55

42

56

5758

60

59

61

82

81

80

39

3532

32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

74

75

76

77

78

79

79

34

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4 9

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65

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985,000 External(Regional) Trips/day

80% Inbound20% Outbound

Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.

11%

27%

20%

12%24%

15%

18%4%Seattle

CBD

XX% % Distribution ofExternal Trips

10%

4%

BELLEVUE/OVERLAKE AREA2020 Weekday Person Trip Distribution

T IAZ

51

54

53

45 47

52

4348

3637

55

42

56

5758

60

59

61

82

81

80

39

3532

32 33

31

13

41

21

16

15

1

32

12

11

8

9

27 26

23

225 6

7

1917

18

38

2830

2910

66 69

68

63

67

64

62

70

71

7273

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75

76

77

78

79

79

34

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14

83

4 9

425

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20

46

65

40

24,500 External(Regional) Trips/day

Transit ModeShare = 2.5%

Source: PSRC 2001 MTP Trip Tables.Prepared by James W. MacIsaac, P.E.

4%16

%

8%

3%12%

11%

61%*Seattle

CBD

XX% % Distribution ofExternal Trips

24%

33%

4%

10.9%

* 60% carried by Rail, and 40%carried by Express Bus.

xx% Transit mode share

1.8%

1.9%

1.2%

0.5%

1.3%

2.1%

BELLEVUE/OVERLAKE AREA2020 Weekday Transit Trip Distribution