IATSS ReSeARch Vol.33 No.2, 2009    125

cHnroad traFFic accidents in cHinaShengchuan ZHAOProfessor, Dalian University of Technology, Dalian, china(Received September 3, 2009)

1. BacKgroUnd

China has been experiencing dynamic urbanization and motorization due to rapid economic growth. During the period 1980-2005, the overall GDP increased by ap-proximately 40 times, averaging around 10% growth per annum; the urban population tripled while the total popu-lation increased by 30%. The numbers of motor vehicles and motor vehicle drivers increased approximately 18 times and 33 times respectively (Table 1).

During the last 20 years a road network has steadi-ly been formed. As can be found from Table 2, by the end of 2005, the total mileage of highways in China reached 1.931 million km (excluding HK, Macao and Taiwan); the density of the road network reached close to 20.1km/100 km2. Expressways have been rapidly de-veloped since 1988. In 1988 the first 18.5 km-long Shang-hai-Jiading Expressway was completed and opened to traffic. In less than 20 years the total length of express-ways reached 41,005 km in 2005. The central govern-ment approved in January 2005 the National Expressway Network Master plan comprising 85,000 km (so called “7918” plan), which will be completed in the next 20-30 years.

Table 3 demonstrates the changes of share by each transport mode since 1980. Due to the improvement of the road infrastructure and rapid motorization, the amount of road transport has kept increasing since 1980. The share of passenger-km by highway has increased from 32.0% in 1980 to 53.2% in 2005, while the share of freight ton-km by highway has increased from 6.4% in

1980 to 10.8% in 2005. Railway and waterway are still major modes for transporting long-distance heavy cargo (Table 3).

2. tHe cHaracteristics oF traFFic accidents in cHina

As a result of these dynamic changes in the econo-my, road transport infrastructure development and motor-ization, road traffic accidents have become a more severe problem in China. According to the annual report of the China Road Traffic Accident Statistics, the number of people who died from road traffic accidents in 2005 was 98,738, with the number of injured five times higher, and is believed to be underestimated in rural areas in China. This fatality number is about 20% of the total traffic fa-talities in the whole world each year, and the number of fatalities is expected to be even worse due to the rapidly increasing number of vehicles and novice drivers.

2.1  Trends of traffic accidentsAs can be seen from Table 4, there is a jump from

1984 to 1985 in the numbers of accidents, deaths and inju-ries, possibly because of the rapid increase in the number of automobile drivers since 1984. Since 2001 the number of deaths has been exceeding a high level of 100,000, though there is a slight decrease in 2005. Considering 1.3 billion population in China, this number might not be surprising, however, as Figure 1 indicates, the number of deaths per VKT in China is 5-10 times higher than that of other developed countries.

Table 1 Changes in economics, population, urbanization and motorization, 1980-2005

GDP (billion RMB)

Population(10,000 persons)

per Capita GDP (RMB/person)

Motor vehicle ownership

Motor vehicle drivers

Year Total Urban %(10,000 units) (10,000 persons)

1980 455 ��,�05 1�,140 1� 4�1 1�� 2451985 �02 105,�51 25,0�4 24 �52 321 4�21990 1,��� 114,333 30,1�5 2� 1,�33 551 ��11995 �,0�� 121,121 35,1�4 2� 5,01� 1,040 1,��32000 �,�21 12�,�43 45,�0� 3� �,�2� 1,�0� 3,�4�2005 1�,30� 130,�5� 5�,212 43 14,002 3,1�0 �,01�

2005/1980 40.3 1.3 2.� 2.2 30.4 1�.� 32.�

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2006

12�    IATSS ReSeARch Vol.33 No.2, 2009

2.2  Characteristics of fatalitiesThe characteristics of road traffic fatalities during

2000-2005 can be summarized as follows:1. Novice drivers (driving years of less than one year)

and less experienced drivers (driving years of 2-3 years) are causing more fatalities since 2003. This is partly because SARS broke out in 2003, which fa-

cilitated the transfer of travelers from public trans-portation to automobiles, and accounted for a huge number of novice and less experienced drivers, who might have caused traffic fatalities. On the other hand, experienced drivers (driving years of more than 11 years) are causing fewer fatalities. It is evident that driving experiences, accumulated by either prac-

Table 2 Highway investments and developments, 1986-2005

Year GDP

(billion RMB) Highway investment

(billion RMB) Highway investment/

GDP (%) Highway mileage

(10,000 km) Expressway mileage

(km)

1986 1,02�  3  0.3    ��  -1987 1,20�  4  0.3    ��  -1988 1,504  5  0.4  100  14� 1989 1,���  �  0.4  101  2�1 1990 1,���  �  0.4  103  522 1991 2,1��  �  0.4  104  5�4 1992 2,��2  1�  0.�  10�  �52 1993 3,533  34  1.0  10�  1,145 1994 4,�20  4�  1.0  112  1,�03 1995 �,0��  �0  1.0  11�  2,141 1996 �,11�  ��  0.�  11�  3,422 1997 �,���  �1  1.2  123  4,��1 1998 �,440  21�  2.�  12�  �,�33 1999 �,���  21�  2.4  135  11,�05 2000 �,�21  232  2.3  140  1�,314 2001 10,���  2��  2.4  1�0  1�,43� 2002 12,033  321  2.�  1��  25,130 2003 13,5�2  3�1  2.�  1�1  2�,�45 2004 15,���  4�0  2.�  1��  34,2�� 2005 1�,30�  54�  3.0  1�3  41,005

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2006 China Statistical Yearbook of Communication & Transportation 2005

Table 3 Modal shares (%), 1980-2005

Passenger-km Freight Ton-km

YearRailway Highway waterway Civil

AviationRailway Highway waterway Civil

AviationPipeline

1980 �0.� 32.0 5.�   1.� 4�.5   �.4 42.0 0.0 4.11985 54.5 3�.� 4.0   2.� 44.2 10.4 42.1 0.0 3.31990 4�.4 4�.� 2.�   4.1 40.5 12.� 44.2 0.0 2.41995 3�.4 51.1 1.�   �.� 3�.3 13.1 4�.� 0.1 1.�2000 3�.0 54.3 0.�   �.� 31.1 13.� 53.� 0.1 1.42005 34.� 53.2 0.4 11.� 25.� 10.� �1.� 0.1 1.4

Source: China Statistical Yearbook 2005

IATSS ReSeARch Vol.33 No.2, 2009    12�

tical driving or reeducation at driving school, are contributing to road traffic safety. It is noteworthy that about 80% of the victims are between 21-45 years old.

2. The number of deaths on expressways is continu-ously increasing, corresponding to the rapid develop-ment of expressways. The top three causes for fa-talities on expressways are: unsafe distance between vehicles, fatigue and speeding.

3. The number of deaths per vehicle is negatively cor-related with the density of classified roads. Rural ar-eas with less classified roads (high grade roads) are likely to cause more fatalities.

Table 4 Traffic accident data, 1980-2005

Year Number of accidents Number of deaths Number of injuries Number of deaths

per 10,000 vehicle 1) Number of deaths

per 100,000 population

1980 11�,��2  21,�1�  �0,�24  104.4�  2.21 1981 114,���  22,4��  ��,54�  �5.�5  2.25 1982 103,���  22,1�4  �1,3�5  �5.32  2.�1 1983 10�,�5�  23,�44  �3,�5�  �4.35  2.33 1984 11�,���  25,251  ��,��5  42.��  2.43 1985 202,3�4  40,�0�  13�,�2�  �2.3�  3.�� 1986 2�5,13�  50,0�3  1�5,��5  �1.12  4.�0 1987 2��,14�  53,43�  1��,3��  50.3�  4.�4 1988 2��,0�1  54,�14  1�0,5��  4�.05  5.00 1989 25�,030  50,441  15�,002  3�.2�  4.54 1990 250,2��  4�,2�1  155,0�2  33.3�  4.31 1991 2�4,�1�  53,2�2  1�2,01�  32.15  4.�0 1992 22�,2��  5�,�2�  144,2�4  30.1�  5.00 1993 242,343  �3,50�  142,251  2�.24  5.3� 1994 253,53�  ��,3�2  14�,�1�  24.2�  5.54 1995 2�1,�43  �1,4�4  15�,30�  22.4�  5.�0 1996 2��,��5  �3,�55  1�4,44�  20.41  �.02 1997 304,21�  �3,��1  1�0,12�  1�.50  5.�� 1998 34�,12�  ��,0��  222,�21  1�.30  �.25 1999 412,��0  �3,52�  2��,0�0  15.45  �.�2 2000 �1�,��1  �3,�53  41�,�21  15.�0  �.2� 2001 �54,�1�  105,�30  54�,4�5  15.4�  �.51 2002 ��3,13�  10�,3�1  5�2,0�4  13.�1  �.�� 2003 ���,50�  104,3�2  4�4,1�4  10.�1  �.0� 2004 51�,���  10�,0��  4�0,��4  �.�3  �.24 2005 450,254  ��,�3�  4��,�11  �.5�  �.�0 

Note 1) : Two-wheel motorcycles & some tractors are includedSource: China Road Traffic Accidents Statistics 2005

Fig. 1 Number of deaths per 100 million VKT in 1995

10

8

6

4

2

0France Japan Italy Germany USA UK China

Number of deathper 100 million VKT

1.79 1.76 1.62 1.591.07 0.84

9.06