risk from climate change & extreme …...1. climate change is real and irreversible 2. means to...
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RISK FROM CLIMATE CHANGE & EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS: ARE WE PREPARED?
Dr. Blair FeltmateHead, Intact Centre
October 31, 2019
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1. Financial and social costs of extreme weather are
increasing
2. Good news - Canada has well informed guidance to limit
flood risk
3. Profile practical means to limit flood risk:
Home
Community
Natural Infrastructure
4. Summary/Discussion
AGENDA
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HUMAN INFLUENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTREME WEATHER
It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century…
IPCC 2014
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WORLD ENERGY SUPPLY (Mtoe)
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COSTS OF EXTREME WEATHER: P&C CATASTROPHIC INSURABLE LOSSES ($CAD)
Courtesy: Insurance Bureau of Canada
Note: Cost to government and homeowners 3-4X that of private insurers.
Loss + Loss Adjustment Expenses $2017 - total natural-catastrophe losses normalized by inflation and per-capita wealth accumulation
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
$ B il li o n
Eastern Ice Storm
Ontario Wind and Rain
Alberta and Toronto Floods
Fort McMurray Fire
Quebec Floods
premiums up 20-25% over past 5 years (15% = water) increase in % of homes with low cap limit ($10 - $20K)
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MENTAL HEALTH IMPACTS OF BASEMENT FLOODING
“It’s something you never want to experience again in your life” Average time off work following basement flood – 7.1 days
Non-Flooded Respondents (n=37)
Flooded Respondents (n=48)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Three Years After A Flood: Responses to "How Worried Do You Get When it Rains?"
% of Respondents Who Gave a 4 or 5 on a Scale of 1-5 (1= not worried, 5 = very worried)
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GUIDANCE ON HOME AND COMMUNITY FLOOD RISK MITIGATION (NRC AND SCC MERIT CREDIT)
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Home Flood Protection Guideline
New Community Flood Guideline
Existing Community Flood Guideline
Commercial RealEstate Flood Guideline
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FLOOD RISKS OUTSIDE THE HOME
Undersized or Leaking Eaves Troughs
Cracks or Gaps in Windows or Frames
Sump Discharge < 2 m from Foundation
Grading Directs Water Towards Foundation
Clogged Drains or Poorly Sealed Doors Below Grade
Downspouts Discharge < 2 m from Foundation
Window Wells < 4-6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
62%
63%
68%
69%
75%
78%
82%
Top Flood Risks Outside the Home
Percent
7
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FLOOD RISKS INSIDE THE HOME
Obstruction of Water Flow to Floor Drain
Risk of Damage from Hazardous Materials
Valuables at Risk of Water Damage
Furniture/Electronics at Risk of Water Damage
No Sump Pump Back-Up Power
No Back-Up Sump Pump
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
35%
61%
65%
71%
84%
85%
Top Flood Risks Recorded Inside the Home
Percent
8
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SELF-REPORTED MAINTENANCE FLOOD RISKS INSIDE THE HOME
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9
Significant percentage of residents have never maintained their backwater valve or sump pump systems
No Maintenance of Sump Pump
No Testing of Sump Pump Back-Up Battery
No Maintenance of Backwater Valve
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
40
43
53
Top Self-Reported Maintenance Flood Risks Inside the Home
Percent
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A multitude of actions can be engaged to limit flood risk (applicable to new an existing communities): 1. Flood walls2. Berms3. Diversion channels4. Holding ponds5. Cisterns/storage tanks/
tunnels6. Sewer separation projects7. Naturalized areas
COMMUNITY FLOOD RISK PROTECTION –ROLE FOR NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE
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5. PAN-CANADIAN ACTION: NATURAL INFRASTRUCTURE RETENTION AND RESTORATION PROGRAM
Wetlands can reduce infrastructure costs from major storms by 29 – 38%
Next Step: launch national program focused on utilizing natural infrastructure to limit flood risk: retain what you have restore what you have lost build what you must
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1. Climate change is real and irreversible
2. Means to limit climate change and extreme weather risk have been developed / are being developed
3. Canada must move faster to operationalize practices to limit climate risk
4. Home owners have “the power” to limit home flood risk right now
5. Adaptation is the “gift that keeps on giving”
SUMMARY / DISCUSSION