thematic presentation climate change impacts on extreme floods
TRANSCRIPT
Thematic Presentation
Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Floods
Marco Borga
University of Padova
Italy
Climate Change Impacts
on Extreme Floods
Focus on:
�flash floods
�urban floods
�coastal floods
�emerging technology and costs of natural hazards
�national projects
�Social impacts/Economics
�Embankments
�Uncertainty
�Stakeholders/case studies
�Communication issues/User engagement
�Focus o
n im
pro
ved thunders
torm
modelling a
nd
observ
ation techniques h
ave b
een d
eveloped
�New real tim
e lightn
ing p
roduct fo
r th
e
Mediterranean o
nline (http://flashpro
ject.org
)
�New thunders
torm
“nowcasting”pro
duct online for
1-3
hour fo
recasts o
f heavy rainfa
ll
�New thunders
torm
“fo
recasting”pro
duct online for
6-7
2 h
our fo
recasts o
f heavy rainfa
ll
�New synoptic indicato
rs o
f flash floods
�New e
ducational outreach w
ebsite o
n flash floods
and thunders
torm
s
6 partners from 5 European countries, EC contribution of 1.2 M
€,
ends August 2010
FLASH:
Thunderstorms and Flash Floods
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n d
evelopm
ent of a E
uro
pean
observ
ational strate
gy o
n flash floods, coupling:
weath
er ra
dar observ
ations, post-flood surv
eys,
hydro
logical m
odelling.
�Hydro
-mete
oro
logical analysis o
f flash flood
regim
es / e
xtrem
e e
vents
: space-tim
e scale a
nd
resolution, inte
ractions b
etw
een
hydro
logy/g
eom
orp
hology/h
ydra
ulics
�Developm
ent of hydro
-mete
oro
logical m
odels for
pre
cipitation n
ow-c
asting a
nd flash flood
guidance/fore
casting/w
arn
ing
14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 2.35 M€, end May 2010
–International partners: China, USA, Africa
HYDRATE:
Hydro-meteorological data resources
and technologies for effective flash flood
forecasting
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n im
pro
vem
ent o
n anticipation
(rainfa
ll fore
cast), pre
pare
dness a
nd
opera
tional risk m
anagem
ent fo
r Flash
Flood a
nd D
ebris F
low g
enera
ting e
vents
, th
us reducing casualties a
nd d
am
ages to
the e
nvironm
ent.
�Meth
ods a
nd tools to b
e u
sed b
y
em
erg
ency a
gencies a
nd u
tility
com
panies
responsible for th
e m
anagem
ent of FF/D
F
risks a
nd a
ssociate
d e
ffects
�Develop p
roto
type teste
d o
n six
selecte
d flash flood/d
ebris flow p
rone
are
as (Alpine a
nd M
editerranean
catchm
ents)
17 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.3 M€, end February 2012
–International partners: South Africa
IMPRINTS:
Preparedness and risk management for
flash floods and debris flow events
Practitioner's Tool
(Beta version)
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
IMPRINTS:
Preparedness and risk management for
flash floods and debris flow events
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
Fla
sh F
loo
ds
an
d D
eb
ris
Flo
ws
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na
ge
me
nt.
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rt 1
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vin
g w
ith
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SMARTEST:
Smart resilient technology, system and tools
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n cost-effective solutions for th
e flood
resilient syste
ms in the u
rban e
nvironm
ent.
�Developm
ent of m
odel of FRe syste
ms
�A d
am
age m
odel fo
r th
e sim
ulation o
f FRe
construction, te
chnology a
nd syste
m; A d
ecision
support tool fo
r pro
fessional sta
keholders
in
flood resilience technology
�A g
uideline for th
e im
plem
enta
tion o
f flood
resilience construction, te
chnology a
nd syste
m
by sta
keholders
�W
ork
shops a
t local level in case stu
dy a
reas to
define requirem
ents for FRe syste
ms; National
work
shops for local conta
ct and language
dissem
ination
�Policy b
rief on e
nvironm
enta
l im
pact of th
e
researc
h
Photo: Floodplan
�Focus o
n d
iffe
rences in u
rban flooding in
Asia a
nd E
uro
pe
�Meth
odology for assessm
ent of im
pacts
and p
ossible responses b
y e
nvisaging
diffe
rent scenarios o
f re
levant drivers
(clim
ate
change, socio-e
conom
ic tre
nds,
land u
se/p
lanning e
tc.)
�Quantification o
f cost-effectiveness o
f
resilience m
easure
s a
nd inte
gra
tive a
nd
adapta
ble flood m
anagem
ent plans for
these scenarios
�Advances in m
odelling d
rivers
and
pre
ssure
s, flood fore
casting, flood risk
analysis a
nd m
apping, flood im
pact
assessm
ent and flood risk m
anagem
ent
CORFU:
Collaborative research on flood resilience
in urban areas
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Focus o
n cost-effective m
eans for flood risk
managem
ent in u
rban a
reas.
�Knowledge o
n v
ulnera
bility critical infrastructu
re a
nd
impro
ving flood d
efe
nces: getting the b
alance in h
olistic
flood risk m
anagem
ent strate
gies
�Biote
chnical m
eth
ods for im
pro
ving flood d
efe
nces
�Concepts for m
ultifunctional flood d
efe
nces a
nd shelters
FLOODPROBE:
Technologies for improved safety of the built
environment in relation to flood events
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
14 partners from Europe, EC contribution of 3.5 M€,
end October 2013
�Consolidate
d m
eth
odologies for risk
assessm
ent with a
nalysis o
f drivers
and
impacts o
f changing flood risk a
nd
uncertainties in coasta
l pro
cess.
�Risk b
ased d
esign o
f innovative o
r
optim
ised d
efe
nce structu
res: w
ave e
nerg
y
converters
, re
efs, floating b
reakwate
rs,
dikes, nourishm
ent.
�Mainte
nance a
nd construction o
f habitat
for m
itigation p
urp
oses: biological re
efs,
dunes, saltm
ars
hes, m
anaged realignm
ent.
�Coasta
l risk g
overn
ance: insura
nce
schem
es, land u
se p
lanning, private
secto
r
strate
gies, post crisis m
anagem
ent,
knowledge m
obilization a
nd crisis p
lanning
pro
tocols.
THESEUS:
Innovative coastal technologies
for safer European coasts in a changing climate
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
UrbanFlood
UrbanFlood
ICT for Environmental Services and Climate Change Adaptation Programme
6 Partners; €4.1M programme of work; Grant agreement No. 248767
December 2009 � ���
November 2012
�Focus o
n d
eveloping innovative technologies to h
elp
em
erg
ency m
anagem
ent on flood conditions (as w
ell a
s
support for ro
utine a
sset m
anagem
ent)
�Developing a
work
ing flood risk e
arly w
arn
ing syste
m that
uses sensor te
chnology e
mbedded in flood e
mbankm
ents
(and flood d
efe
nces), linked v
ia Inte
rnet te
chnology w
ith
online u
ser inte
rfaces a
nd a
mutli-to
uch table syste
m for
em
erg
ency serv
ices a
ccess a
nd control.
�Application to 3
pilot sites in A
mste
rdam
, London a
nd S
t Pete
rsburg
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
�Com
pilation o
f sta
te-o
f-th
e-a
rt m
eth
ods
for cost assessm
ent of natu
ral hazard
s:
dro
ughts
, floods, sto
rms a
nd coasta
l
hazard
s, and a
lpine h
azard
s;
�Analysis a
nd a
ssessm
ent of th
ese m
eth
ods
in o
rder to
identify
best pra
ctice m
eth
ods
and identify
theore
tical and p
ractical
knowledge g
aps;
�Synth
esis o
f th
e resulting k
nowledge into
recom
mendations for assessm
ents o
f th
e
costs o
f natu
ral hazard
s a
nd identify
further
researc
h n
eeds.
ConHaz:
Costs of natural hazardsScientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
FRMRCand EQUIP:
National (UK) projects
�UK n
ational academ
ic collabora
tive p
roje
cts
�flood risk a
nd u
ncertainty
in clim
ate
im
pact assessm
ent
�Achievem
ents
�Researc
h a
ddre
sses “users
”pro
blem
s
�Policy-relevant re
searc
h
�FRMRC1 researc
h n
ow in u
se in U
K for inspection o
f flood d
efe
nce
infrastructu
re
�Aspiration to contribute
to IPCC A
R5
Scientific outputs
C-Extreme floods
FLASH FLOODS:
research perspectives
�Science inte
gra
tion:
�Monitoring/o
bserv
ations: to
tal lightn
ing d
ata
in real-tim
e m
onitoring o
f inte
nse sto
rms;
rainfa
ll a
t flash flood scales; pro
gra
ms for post-flood surv
ey;
�Modelling: ra
infa
ll d
ata
assim
ilation for pre
cipitation fore
casting in N
WP; flash flood
pre
diction/fore
casting in u
ngauged b
asins; Pro
babilistic fore
casts-U
ncertainty
assessm
ent.
�Opera
tional/Policy inte
gra
tion -
Inte
raction:
�In
cre
ase o
f anticipation a
s a
key p
oint fo
r pre
pare
dness: Uncertainty
must be e
stim
ate
d a
nd
pro
vided to the e
nd-u
ser in a
pro
per way; Developm
ent of Tools a
nd S
oftware
adapte
d to
Pra
ctitioner’s n
eeds for th
e real-tim
e risk m
anagem
ent;
�Need to facilitate
scientist –
end u
ser/sta
keholder inte
ractions.
�Susta
inability:
�Im
pro
ve a
nalysis o
f influence o
f environm
enta
l changes (LU/C
C)on flash flood regim
es;
�Im
pro
ve a
nalysis o
f social changes o
n flash flood risks.
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�Science inte
gra
tion: d
evelopm
ent of dra
ft h
arm
onised sta
ndard
s (Euro
pean),
developm
ent of syste
m a
ppro
aches to the u
se o
f te
chnology a
nd a
ppro
priate
tools to
quantify
application a
nd p
erform
ance. S
pecific focus o
n:
�th
e v
ulnera
bility o
f critical infrastructu
re a
nd h
igh-d
ensity v
alue a
ssets,
�th
e reliability o
f urb
an flood d
efe
nces a
nd
�construction technologies a
nd concepts for flood-p
roofing b
uildings a
nd infrastructu
re
netw
ork
s.
�In
tera
ction: Enhancing the d
ialogue b
etw
een e
ngineers
and scientists, industry
(manufa
ctu
rers
and b
uilders
), local and n
ational govern
ment and a
gencies a
nd sta
ndard
s
bodies. Cata
loguing a
nd sharing b
est pra
ctice o
n m
itigation a
nd resilience m
easure
s.
�Significant incre
ase in the cost-effectiveness (i.e. perform
ance) of investm
ents in n
ewly
developed a
nd e
xisting flood p
rote
ction a
nd flood resilience m
easure
s incre
asing the
flood-resilience o
f th
e u
rban syste
m.
�Susta
inability: Developm
ent of a flood resilience a
ppro
ach in k
ey sta
keholders
.
URBAN FLOODS:
research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�In
tegra
tion. Inte
gra
tion o
f scientific
outcom
es into
design g
uidelines a
nd
software
tool fo
r defe
nce p
lanning.
�In
tera
ction. D
ialogue b
etw
een
engineers
and scientists
, land u
se
planners
, politicians a
nd the a
ffecte
d
public to a
chieve a
n e
ffective coasta
l
planning strate
gy.
�Susta
inability. D
evelopm
ent of
sta
ndard
inte
gra
ted p
ractices for th
e
selection o
f susta
inable m
itigation
measure
s.
�
COASTAL FLOODS:
Research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:
EMERGENING TECHNOLOGY:
Research perspectives
Research perspectives
�Sensor data
uncertainty
and resolution in relation to d
iffe
rent
end u
ser needs
�Verify
ing/e
nsuring syste
m reliability a
nd security
, particularly
during e
xtrem
e e
vents
�Im
plem
enta
tion a
t larg
er (c
atchm
ent) scale o
ffers
added
pote
ntial fo
r risk / e
vent m
anagem
ent but we then n
eed to
addre
ss the w
ider challenges o
f:
�In
tegra
ted o
pera
tion a
nd m
ainte
nance a
cro
ss n
um
ero
us
defe
nce structu
re o
wners
, flood risk m
anagem
ent and
em
erg
ency serv
ice o
rganisations
�Managem
ent and p
rocessing o
f very
larg
e d
ata
volum
es in
real tim
e
�Sta
ndard
s for design, insta
llation a
nd o
pera
tion
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
�Com
pile, analyse a
nd a
ssess e
xisting
knowledge for costing o
f diffe
rent
natu
ral hazard
types
�Recom
mendations o
n m
eth
ods,
knowledge tra
nsfe
r
�Netw
ork
ing w
ithin a
nd b
etw
een
natu
ral hazard
com
munities (re
searc
h,
pra
ctitioners
, policym
akers
)
COSTS OF NATURAL HAZARDS:
research perspectives
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods
FRMRC and EQUIP:
research perspectives
�Quantify
ing the scenarios a
nd u
ncertainty
for short-term
pre
cipitation e
xtrem
es a
nd flood im
pacts
�Contribution o
f land u
se a
nd m
anagem
ent to
flood risk m
anagem
ent
�The e
ffects o
f ageing o
f flood d
efe
nce infrastructu
re
on failure
pro
bability
�Quantify
ing u
ncertainty
in a
ssessm
ents o
f flood risk
and b
etter com
munication o
f uncertainty
Perspectives
C-Extreme floods