Risk

The probability of a hazard event causing harmful consequences

Factors affecting the perception of risk

• Experience

• Wealth

• Personality

3 responses

• Do nothing

• Leave the area

• Adjust – This is what we are interested in

Human response to hazards

• Prevent or modify the event

• Modify the level of vulnerability

• Modify the loss

Prevent or modify the hazard event

• Hazard prevention and environmental control. The aim is to suppress the event by spreading the energy over a greater period of time. This is tricky and the most common example is flood control

• Hazard resistant design. Especially important in high risk structures such as dams

Modify vulnerability

• Prediction. Need to identify: when; how often; area affected and magnitude. Insurance companies have invested heavily in this Hurricane Andrew resulted in $16bn worth of insurance claims

• Warning. This depends on adequate monitoring and evaluation. The community must understand and then respond to the warning

Modify vulnerability

• Community preparedness. Prearranged measures which aim to reduce the loss of life and property damage. This involves education, awareness programmes, evacuation procedures, provision of emergency food, medical and shelter supplies.

• Land use planning. Prevent new developments from occupying hazard prone areas

Modify the loss

• Simply accepting losses incurred is not acceptable so losses should be shared via:

1. Insurance. Key strategy in MEDC’s. Insurance companies must make profits so premiums in high risk areas are going to be high or unavailable. Insurance can encourage people to take preventative measures themselves by making it a prerequisite

2. Aid. Disaster areas receive aid. Should aid be given to those who have done nothing to protect themselves. Also national pride can increase reluctance to ask. Media coverage seriously impacts upon aid given

Risk Management Cycle