risk analysis & management. phases initial risk assessment risk analysis risk management and...
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Risk Analysis & ManagementRisk Analysis & Management
PhasesPhases
Initial Risk Assessment Risk Analysis Risk Management and
Mitigation
Risk Assessment for Initial Risk Assessment for Initial Business CaseBusiness Case
Looking at Uncertainty
Why the Initial Risk AssessmentWhy the Initial Risk Assessmentis neededis needed
To decide whether it is worth proceeding with the project
As an input into the Value Management study As an input into the Scenario Analysis As an input into Risk Management As a factor in deciding Project Strategy (inc.
Purchasing)
Definitions of Project RiskDefinitions of Project Risk
Narrow Definition Risk is the possibility that project
objectives may not be achieved
ORWider Definition
Risk is a recognition of the uncertain outcome of any project
Initial Risk AssessmentInitial Risk Assessment
Clarify the project objectives Identify all the possible risks For each risk assess:
the probability of occurrence the potential impact on the project if the risk
occurs the overall ‘seriousness’
Identify potential ‘show-stoppers’
Project ObjectivesProject Objectives
Risk cannot be assessed unless the project objectives are clear
Most projects have a range of objectives The project ‘Sponsor’ needs to identify the
main ‘business drivers’
But, each ‘Stakeholder’ will have his/her own priorities for the project
A hierarchy of objectives should be agreed
Objectives HierarchyObjectives Hierarchy
Business Objectives must be part of the objectives hierarchy
Key Objective
Prime Objective
or Reason
Sub-Objective
Identification of RiskIdentification of Risk
Internal Risks Project resources are inadequate
External Risks A key supplier goes bankrupt Market collapses
Uncertainties Future exchange rates
Record risks in a Risk Log
Probability of OccurrenceProbability of Occurrence
No risk has 100% probability of a particular outcome - if it does it becomes a certainty
Suggested range of probabilities: - “Likely” - a probability of 50% or more is high “May happen” - a probability of 25% to 45% is
medium “Unlikely” - a probability of 20% or less is low
Impact of RisksImpact of Risks
The cost of implementing the project will be higher than expected
The time taken to implement the project will be longer than expected
The required technical or commercial performance (or quality) of the deliverable will not be achieved
Impact ratings of ‘High’, ‘Medium’ or ‘Low’ should take account of any planned risk management actions
Seriousness RatingSeriousness Rating
Probability
High Medium High High
Medium Low Medium High
Low Low Low Medium
Low Medium High
Impact
Check-list:Check-list:Initial Risk AssessmentInitial Risk Assessment
Have the project objectives been clarified? What are the risks of failing to meet these
objectives? What other uncertainties exist? Does the assessment of risk identify any
potential ‘show-stoppers’? If so, can anything be done to reduce the risk?
Are you convinced that there is an acceptable balance between risk and reward?
Risk and Scenario AnalysisRisk and Scenario Analysis
Considering Different Project Outcomes
The Risk Management ProcessThe Risk Management ProcessRisk Analysis
What are the uncertainties,
probabilities andimpacts?
Value Management
What are the options?Define preferred option
Scenario Analysis
What is the range of probable outcomes?
Risk Containment
How do we control the outcome?
Full Risk AnalysisFull Risk Analysis
Verify Risk Log Estimate percentage probabilities Score potential impacts Rank seriousness of risks Explore options which will mitigate risks
(using Value Management study) Prepare ‘scenarios’ to demonstrate range of
possible outcomes for the preferred option
Quantification of RiskQuantification of Risk Estimate percentage probabilities Score potential impact on scale 1 - 10
1 = lowest impact - perhaps because it will be easy to manage the risk if it occurs
10 = sufficient impact to halt project - and no effective risk management countermeasures are envisaged
Multiply percentage times score to give a seriousness rating
A seriousness rating above 2.5 could represent an ‘unacceptable’ risk - establish threshold for project
Seriousness Rating = 2.5Seriousness Rating = 2.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
IMPACT
PR
OB
AB
ILIT
Y
Full Risk Analysis: SummaryFull Risk Analysis: Summary
The Risk Log should list those events which might affect the outcome of your project
The seriousness of each risk is defined as the percentage probability times the impact
A numerical threshold of acceptability can then be defined - but a high potential reward would justify a higher threshold
The next steps are Scenario Analysis and Risk Management
Scenario AnalysisScenario Analysis
Trying to define the range of possible project outcomes: ‘Pessimistic’ ‘Most Likely’ ‘Optimistic’
This is an alternative the more traditional Sensitivity Analysis
Probability Distribution - Graph Probability Distribution - Graph 11
Probability
Outcome
Most Likely
Pessimistic Optimistic
Using Scenario Analysis Using Scenario Analysis
For each area of uncertainty (in the Risk Log), define the ‘pessimistic’, ‘most likely’ and ‘optimistic’ outcomes
Record these using a Scenario Template Use these assumptions to prepare three
financial scenarios in the Financial Appraisal - ‘pessimistic’, ‘most likely’ and ‘optimistic’
The pessimistic and optimistic scenarios should represent the extreme outcomes which have realistic probability of happening
Risk ManagementRisk Management
“No project is risk free. Risk can be managed, minimised, shared, transferred or accepted. It must not be ignored.”
(Sir Michael Latham, 1994)
Risk ManagementRisk Management
Review the risk log Prepare contingency or pro-active actions Try to benefit from uncertainties Consider risk transfer mechanisms Allocate responsibility for risk management Monitor progress against the risk log Take decisive action when risks occur
Risk ManagementRisk Management
Identify Risk
Determine appropriate action(s)
Contingency:- only invoked
when necessary
Pro-active:- taken before
risk occurs
REDUCE OR ELIMINATEADVERSE IMPACT
MAY IMPROVEEXPECTED OUTCOME
Accept Risk -no action identified
Risk Transfer MechanismsRisk Transfer Mechanisms
One pro-active strategy is to transfer risk to another party - e.g. a supplier or insurance
This does not eliminate the risk - it merely shifts the responsibility for that risk
“Risk should be borne by the party which is best able to manage it”
Allocate ResponsibilitiesAllocate Responsibilities
Allocate responsibilities to those best able to handle the risks
For example, the Purchasing Manager should handle risks associated with external suppliers
Ask managers to look for upside potential as well as avoiding downside risk
Monitor Progress and Take Monitor Progress and Take ActionAction
A Risk Management Log should identify responsibilities, proposed actions and dates
This log should be reviewed regularly as the project progresses
If unforeseen problems arise, then immediate action may be needed
Issue LogIssue Log
An optional “action list” based on the Risk Management log
Defines who is responsible for any actions not already pre-planned as part of the WBS
Links Risk Management Log to the Change Management Log
Risk Management: Risk Management: SummarySummary
Try to anticipate all possible risks Plan how do deal with these risks Allocate responsibilities or transfer risk Monitor progress and be prepared for the
unexpected Act promptly when risks occur