rice university corpus christi, texas october 14, 2010

The Population of Texas and The United States: Historical Patterns and Future Trends Affecting

Education, The Labor Force and Economic Development

Steve H. MurdockDepartment of Sociology

Rice University

Corpus Christi, Texas

October 14, 2010

Major Topics of the Presentation__________________________

• Change in Rates and Sources of Population Growth

• Increase in NonAnglo Populations• Aging of the Population• Implications of Demographic Change for

Education, the Labor Force and Economic Development

Total Population and Percent Population Change in Texas and the United States, 1850-2009

4

Total Population Percent Change

Year Texas U.S. Texas U.S.1850 212,592 23,191,876 --- ---1860 604,215 31,443,321 184.2 35.61870 818,579 39,818,449 35.5 26.61880 1,591,749 50,155,783 94.5 26.01890 2,235,527 62,947,714 40.4 25.51900 3,048,710 75,994,575 36.4 20.71910 3,896,542 91,972,266 27.8 21.01920 4,663,228 105,710,620 19.7 14.91930 5,824,715 122,775,046 24.9 16.11940 6,414,824 131,669,275 10.1 7.21950 7,711,194 150,697,361 20.2 14.51960 9,579,677 179,323,175 24.2 19.01970 11,196,730 203,302,031 16.9 13.41980 14,229,191 226,545,805 27.1 11.41990 16,986,510 248,709,873 19.4 9.82000 20,851,820 281,421,906 22.8 13.22009 24,782,302 307,006,550 18.8 9.1

*Source: Derived from the U.S. Census Bureau decennial census and population estimates. Values for years ending in 0 reference April 1 of the year. Value for 2009 is an estimate for July 1.

Components of Change, U.S. and Texas, 2000-2009

United States Texas

ComponentNumeric Change

Percent of Total Change

Numeric Change

Percent of Total Change

Total Change 25,584,644 100.0 3,930,482 100.0

Natural Increase 15,875,579 62.1 2,124,124 54.0

Net Domestic Migration ---- --- 848,702 21.6

Net International Migration 9,709,065 37.9 957,656 24.4

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Ten Largest States in the United States by Population Size in 2009: Population in 2000 and 2009

9

State 2000

Population*2009

Population*

Change 2000-2009

Numeric Percent

California 33,871,648 36,961,664 3,090,016 9.1Texas 20,851,820 24,782,302 3,930,482 18.8New York 18,976,457 19,541,453 564,996 3.0Florida 15,982,378 18,537,969 2,555,591 16.0Illinois 12,419,293 12,910,409 491,116 4.0Pennsylvania 12,281,054 12,604,767 323,713 2.6Ohio 11,353,140 11,542,645 189,505 1.7Michigan 9,938,444 9,969,727 31,283 0.3Georgia 8,186,453 9,829,211 1,642,758 20.1North Carolina 8,049,313 9,380,884 1,331,571 16.5

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.

Source: Derived from U.S. Bureau, Population Division

Ten States in the United States with Largest Numeric Population Increase: 2000-2009

10

State 2000

Population*2009

Population*

Change 2000-2009

Numeric Percent

Texas 20,851,820 24,782,302 3,930,482 18.8

California 33,871,648 36,961,664 3,090,016 9.1

Florida 15,982,378 18,537,969 2,555,591 16.0

Georgia 8,186,453 9,829,211 1,642,758 20.1

Arizona 5,130,632 6,595,778 1,465,146 28.6

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,380,884 1,331,571 16.5

Virginia 7,078,515 7,882,590 804,075 11.4

Washington 5,894,121 6,664,195 770,074 13.1

Colorado 4,301,261 5,024,748 723,487 16.8

Nevada 1,998,257 2,643,085 644,828 32.3 * Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.


Ten States in the United States with Largest Percentage Population Increases: 2000-2009

11

State 2000

Population*2009

Population*

Change 2000-2009

Numeric Percent

Nevada 1,998,257 2,643,085 644,828 32.3

Arizona 5,130,632 6,595,778 1,465,146 28.6

Utah 2,233,169 2,784,572 551,403 24.7

Georgia 8,186,453 9,829,211 1,642,758 20.1

Idaho 1,293,953 1,545,801 251,848 19.5

Texas 20,851,820 24,782,302 3,930,482 18.8

Colorado 4,301,261 5,024,748 723,487 16.8

North Carolina 8,049,313 9,380,884 1,331,571 16.5

Florida 15,982,378 18,537,969 2,555,591 16.0

South Carolina 4,012,012 4,561,242 549,230 13.7

* Population values are decennial census counts for April 1 for 2000 and estimates for July 1 for 2009.


Percent Change 1990-2000

< 0.0% (n=68)

0.0 - 9.9% (n=61)

10.0 - 21.9% (n=66)

22.0 - 86.2% (n=59)

Population Change in Texas Counties, 1990-2000

Source: Texas State Data Center

Texas Regional Councils of Governments

Councils of Governments in Texas Ranked by Total Population in 2009: Total Population in 2000 and 2009; Numeric and Percent Change, 2000-2009;

and Percent of the State Population (2009) and State Population Change

Total Population Population Change Percent of State

Council of Government 2000 2009 Numeric %Population

2009Change, 2000-09

North Central Texas 5,309,270 6,614,889 1,305,619 24.6 26.7 33.2Houston-Galveston 4,854,447 6,005,334 1,150,887 23.7 24.2 29.3Alamo Area 1,807,877 2,175,874 367,997 20.4 8.8 9.4Capital Area 1,346,835 1,816,818 469,983 34.9 7.3 12.0Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,780 1,157,918 233,138 25.2 4.7 5.9East Texas 745,180 813,566 68,386 9.2 3.3 1.7Rio Grande 704,318 775,920 71,602 10.2 3.1 1.8Coastal Bend 549,014 559,067 10,053 1.8 2.3 0.3Central Texas 374,513 422,767 48,254 12.9 1.7 1.2Panhandle 402,856 415,856 13,000 3.2 1.7 0.3Permian Basin 376,670 402,277 25,607 6.8 1.6 0.7South Plains 377,870 397,355 19,485 5.2 1.6 0.5

South East Texas 385,090 378,477 -6,613 -1.7 1.5 -0.2Deep East Texas 355,861 369,671 13,810 3.9 1.5 0.4Heart of Texas 321,533 345,308 23,775 7.4 1.4 0.6South Texas 264,177 323,142 58,965 22.3 1.3 1.5West Central Texas 324,897 317,539 -7,358 -2.3 1.3 -0.2Brazos Valley 267,087 301,428 34,341 12.9 1.2 0.9Ark-Tex 270,475 278,570 8,095 3.0 1.1 0.2Nortex 224,362 217,270 -7,092 -3.2 0.9 -0.2Texoma 178,202 191,679 13,477 7.6 0.8 0.3Golden Crescent 183,906 187,532 3,626 2.0 0.8 0.1Middle Rio Grande 154,385 163,408 9,023 5.8 0.7 0.2Concho Valley 148,213 150,637 2,424 1.6 0.6 0.1

State of Texas 20,851,818 24,782,302 3,930,484 18.8 100.0 100.0

Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas

Metropolitan Statistical Areas in Texas Ranked by Numerical Change Between 2000 and 2009: Total Population in 2000 and 2009 and

Numeric (U.S. Rank) and Percent Change, 2000-2009Total Population Population Change

Metropolitan Statistical Area 2000 2009 Numeric (Rank) %Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington 5,161,544 6,447,615 1,286,078 (1) 24.9Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 4,715,407 5,867,489 1,152,072 (3) 24.4Austin-Round Rock 1,249,763 1,705,075 455,329 (12) 36.4

San Antonio 1,711,703 2,072,128 360,412 (17) 21.1

McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 569,463 741,152 171,681 (34) 30.1El Paso 679,622 751,296 71,674 (71) 10.5Brownsville-Harlingen 335,227 396,371 61,144 (84) 18.2Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood 330,714 379,231 48,522 (97) 14.7Laredo 193,117 241,438 48,321 (99) 25.0Tyler 174,706 204,665 29,959 (133) 17.1College Station-Bryan 184,885 212,268 27,383 (139) 14.8Lubbock 249,700 276,659 26,962 (141) 10.8Amarillo 226,522 246,474 19,952 (171) 8.8Waco 213,517 233,378 19,859 (174) 9.3Midland 116,009 132,316 16,307 (198) 14.1Odessa 121,123 134,625 13,502 (212) 11.1Longview 194,042 206,874 12,832 (215) 6.6Corpus Christi 403,280 416,095 12,813 (217) 3.2Sherman-Denison 110,595 120,030 9,435 (240) 8.5Texarkana /AR 129,749 137,486 7,732 (257) 6.0San Angelo 105,781 110,119 4,338 (286) 4.1Victoria 111,663 115,396 3,728 (292) 3.3Abilene 160,245 160,070 -171 (318) -0.1Wichita Falls 151,524 147,421 -4,103 (340) -2.7Beaumont-Port Arthur 385,090 378,477 -6,613 (349) -1.7

Source: U.S. Census Bureau




< 0.0% (n=98)

0.0 - 1.9% (n=50)

2.0 - 5.4% (n=53)

5.5 - 28.2% (n=53)


Source: Prepared from U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2006 County Estimates by the Texas State Data Center, The University of Texas at San Antonio


< 0.0% (n=103)

0.0 - 2.9% (n=40)

3.0 - 6.0% (n=38)

6.1 - 60.5% (n=73)

Population of the United States by Regions, 1900-2000

Population (in thousands)a

United States/Regions 1900 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

United States 76,212 151,326 179,323 203,302 226,546 248,710 281,422

Regionsb Percent by Region

Northeast 27.6 26.1 24.9 24.1 21.7 20.4 19.0 Midwest 34.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 24.0 22.9 South 32.2 31.2 30.7 30.9 33.3 34.4 35.6 West 5.7 13.3 15.6 17.1 19.1 21.2 22.5

Northeast 27.6 26.1 24.9 24.1 21.7 20.4 19.0 Midwest 34.5 29.4 28.8 27.9 25.9 24.0 22.9

Proportion of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicityin Each Region in 2000

Region Total White Black Other Hispanic Anglo

Northeast 19.0 19.6 17.3 18.4 14.9 20.1 Midwest 22.9 25.5 19.0 12.5 8.8 26.8 South 35.6 34.4 54.5 20.7 32.8 33.8 West 22.5 20.5 9.2 48.4 43.5 19.3 U.S. Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Population, Percent Population Change, and Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States,

1980-1990Proportion of

Number Percent PopulationEthnic ChangeCategory 1980 1990 1980-90 1980 1990

Texas

Anglo 9,350,297 10,291,680 10.1 65.7 60.6Black 1,692,542 1,976,360 16.8 11.9 11.6Hispanic 2,985,824 4,339,905 45.4 21.0 25.6Other 200,528 378,565 88.8 1.4 2.2

Total 14,229,191 16,986,510 19.4 100.0 100.0

United States

Anglo 180,602,838 188,128,296 4.2 79.7 75.7Black 26,091,857 29,216,293 12.0 11.5 11.7Hispanic 14,603,683 22,354,059 53.1 6.5 9.0Other 5,247,427 9,011,225 71.7 2.3 3.6

Total 226,545,805 248,709,873 9.8 100.0 100.0

Texas

Anglo 9,350,297 10,291,680 10.1 65.7 60.6Black 1,692,542 1,976,360 16.8 11.9 11.6

United States

Anglo 180,602,838 188,128,296 4.2 79.7 75.7Black 26,091,857 29,216,293 12.0 11.5 11.7

Source: Texas State Data Center using 1980 Census Sample Data and 1990 Summary Tape File 1 (STF 1) – 100-Percent Data

Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Population by Race/Ethnicity

for Texas and the United States, 1990 and 2000

Proportion ofNumber Percent Population

Ethnic ChangeCategory 1990 2000 1990-2000 1990 2000

Texas

Anglo 10,291,680 11,074,716 7.6 60.6 53.1Black 1,976,360 2,421,653 22.5 11.6 11.6Hispanic 4,339,905 6,669,666 53.7 25.6 32.0Other 378,565 685,785 81.2 2.2 3.3

Total 16,986,510 20,851,820 22.8 100.0 100.0

United States

Anglo 188,128,296 197,165,673 4.8 75.7 70.1Black 29,216,293 35,195,894 20.5 11.7 12.5Hispanic 22,354,059 35,305,818 57.9 9.0 12.5Other 9,011,225 13,754,521 52.6 3.6 4.9

Total 248,709,873 281,421,906 13.2 100.0 100.0

Number Percent PopulationEthnic Change

Texas

United States

Anglo 188,128,296 197,165,673 4.8 75.7 70.1Black 29,216,293 35,195,894 20.5 11.7 12.5


Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Texas and the United

States, 2000 and 2009

PopulationPercent Change

Proportion of Population

Race/Ethnic Category 2000 20092000-2009 2000 2009

TexasWhite Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,965 11,583,116 5.4 52.7 46.7Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,444 2,812,015 18.2 11.4 11.3Other, Not Hispanic 816,745 1,239,115 51.7 3.9 5.0Hispanic 6,669,666 9,148,056 37.2 32.0 36.9Total 20,851,820 24,782,302 18.8 100.0 100.0

United States

White Alone, Not Hispanic 195,575,485 199,851,240 2.2 69.5 65.1Black Alone, Not Hispanic 34,313,007 37,681,544 9.8 12.2 12.3Other, Not Hispanic* 16,227,596 21,054,442 29.7 5.8 6.9Hispanic 35,305,818 48,419,324 37.1 12.5 15.8Total 281,421,906 307,006,550 9.1 100.0 100.0

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division, Population Estimates for the United States, 2009 Vintage

Proportion of Change in Population by Race/Ethnicity for Texas and the United States from 2000 to 2009

Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Bexar County and Texas,

2000 and 2009




Bexar County

White Alone, Not Hispanic 500,477 516,932 3.3 35.9 31.3Black Alone, Not Hispanic 96,768 111,859 15.6 6.9 6.8Other, Not Hispanic 38,653 60,057 55.4 2.8 3.6Hispanic 757,033 962,600 27.2 54.3 58.3Total 1,392,931 1,651,448 18.6 100.0 100.0

Texas

White Alone, Not Hispanic 10,986,965 11,583,116 5.4 52.7 46.7Black Alone, Not Hispanic 2,378,444 2,812,015 18.2 11.4 11.3Other, Not Hispanic 816,745 1,239,115 51.7 3.9 5.0Hispanic 6,669,666 9,148,056 37.2 32.0 36.9Total 20,851,820 24,782,302 18.8 100.0 100.0


Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Dallas County and Texas,

2000 and 2009




Dallas County

White Alone, Not Hispanic 989,665 844,279 -14.7 44.6 34.4Black Alone, Not Hispanic 448,697 492,238 9.7 20.2 20.1Other, Not Hispanic 117,808 147,665 25.3 5.3 6.0Hispanic 662,729 967,548 46.0 29.9 39.5Total 2,218,899 2,451,730 10.5 100.0 100.0

Texas



Population, Percent Change in Population and Proportion of Total Population by Ethnicity for Harris County and Texas,

2000 and 2009




Harris County

White Alone, Not Hispanic 1,444,160 1,438,913 -0.4 42.5 35.3Black Alone, Not Hispanic 623,637 730,010 17.1 18.3 17.9Other, Not Hispanic 213,030 282,640 32.7 6.3 6.9Hispanic 1,119,751 1,619,426 44.6 32.9 39.8Total 3,400,578 4,070,989 19.7 100.0 100.0

Texas



Population Change by Race/Ethnicity, continued

Numerical Percent Percent of2000 2005 Change Change Population

Race/ Census Estimated 2000- 2000-Ethnicity Population Population 2005 2005 2000 2005

Hidalgo County

Anglo 60,316 58,526 -1,790 -3.0 10.6 8.7Black 2,052 2,147 95 4.6 0.4 0.3Hispanic 503,100 611,628 108,528 21.6 88.3 90.2Other 3,995 5,601 1,606 40.2 0.7 0.8Total 569,463 677,902 108,439 19.0 100.0 100.0

Nueces County

Anglo 120,191 107,811 -12,380 -10.3 38.3 34.0Black 13,294 13,018 -276 -2.1 4.2 4.1Hispanic 174,951 189,764 14,813 8.5 55.8 59.8Other 5,209 6,551 1,342 25.8 1.7 2.1Total 313,645 317,144 3,499 1.1 100.0 100.0

San Patricio County

Anglo 31,206 30,763 -443 -1.4 46.5 44.4Black 1,906 2,094 188 9.9 2.8 3.0Hispanic 33,181 35,454 2,273 6.9 49.4 51.2Other 845 970 125 14.8 1.3 1.4Total 67,138 69,281 2,143 3.2 100.0 100.0

Webb County

Anglo 9,706 9,965 259 2.7 5.0 4.4Black 325 330 5 1.5 0.2 0.1Hispanic 182,070 216,423 34,353 18.9 94.3 94.8Other 1,016 1,636 620 61.0 0.5 0.7Total 193,117 228,354 35,237 18.2 100.0 100.0

Source: Texas State Data Center, institute for Demographic and SocioeconomicResearch, University of Texas at San Antonio

Median Age in the United States and Texas,

1900-2007

22.924.1

25.326.5

29.030.1 29.5

28.130.0

32.9

35.336.6

33.132.330.8

28.026.427.0

27.926.8

23.722.0

20.218.7

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007

United States Texas

Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 1990-2000

13.7

1.55.3

49.4

14.812

21.7

16.3 15.3

60.3

2420.7

<18 18-24 25-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Age Groups

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Percent Change

United States Texas

Percent Change in Population by Age Group in the United States and Texas, 2000-2007

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

< 18 years 18-24 years 25-44 years 45-54 years 55-64 years 65+ years

United States Texas

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2000

39.541.6

45.0 45.043.1 44.4

47.8

53.0

57.260.2

63.566.4 67.1

72.6

44.041.3

38.0 38.440.5

38.635.3

30.526.7

24.222.4

20.6 20.316.7

< 5

year

s

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

Percent of Texas Population by Age Groupand Ethnicity, 2040*

* Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

17.719.3 19.9 20.3 19.8 19.3 19.4 20.5 20.6 21.9

25.3 26.5 27.2

39.8

69.967.8 66.5 65.5 66.0 66.8 66.4

64.362.6

60.6

56.7 55.252.3

37.1

< 5 y

ears

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

year

s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0Percent

Anglo Hispanic

Percent of United States Population By Age Group and Ethnicity, 2000

58

.4

59

.9

62

.8

63

.1

61

.1

61

.9 65

.2 69 7

1.9

74

.2

76

.6

78

.3

78

.5 83

.6

41

.6

40

.1

37

.2

36

.9

38

.9

38

.1

34

.8

31

28

.1

25

.8

23

.4

21

.7

21

.5

16

.4

< 5 y

ears

5 to

9 y

ears

10 to

14

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s

15 to

19

year

s

20 to

24

year

s

25 to

29

year

s

30 to

34

year

s

35 to

39

year

s

40 to

44

year

s

45 to

49

year

s

50 to

54

year

s

55 to

59

year

s

60 to

64

year

s

65 +

yea

rs0

20

40

60

80

100Percent

Anglo Non-anglo

POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS AND SOCIOECONOMIC CONDITIONS

Median Household Income in the United States by Age of Householder, 1999

$25,171

$42,174

$50,873

$56,917

$44,597

$27,304

$19,161

15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Age of Householder

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Dollars

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Money Income in the United States: 1999, Current Population Report P60-209

Median Household Income in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 1989 and 1999 with

Percent Change 1989 to 1999

MedianHousehold Income

PercentRace/Ethnicity 1989 1999 Changeof Householder (in 1999 dollars) 1989-99

Total $ 39,009 $ 41,994 7.7

Anglo 41,106 45,367 10.4

Black 25,643 29,423 14.7

Hispanic* 31,351 33,676 7.4

Asian 48,030 51,908 8.1

*Hispanics can be of any race.

Median Household Income In 1999 in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder

$47,162

$29,305 $29,873

$50,049

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Anglo Black Hispanic Asian

Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years

of Age By Race/Ethnicity _____________________________________

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

< High School

High School

Some College

College or More

Hispanic

Black

Anglo

Asian

Percent

Average (Mean) SAT Scores for College Bound Seniors in the United States in 2001

by Selected Characteristics SAT Score

Mean Mean

Characteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479African American or Black 433 426Hispanic: Mexican American 451 458 Puerto Rican 457 451 Other Hispanic 460 465White 529 531Asian American or Pacific Islander 501 566

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443 $10,000 - 20,000 442 456 $20,000 - 30,000 468 474 $30,000 - 40,000 487 489 $40,000 - 50,000 501 503 $50,000 - 60,000 509 512 $60,000 - 70,000 516 519 $70,000 - 80,000 522 527 $80,000 - 100,000 534 540

> $100,000 557 569

SAT Score

Mean Mean

Characteristic Verbal Math

All Students 506 514(N = 1,276,320)

Race/Ethnicity:American Indian 481 479

Household Income: < $10,000 421 443

> $100,000 557 569

Total and Percent of the Population in Poverty and Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, 1999 and 2009

1999 2009

Populationin Poverty %

Median Household

Income* Population in Poverty %

Median Household

Income

Anglo 826,459 7.8 $60,839

1,010,170 9.0 $59,836

Hispanic

1,658,434 25.4 $38,536

2,364,407 26.4 $35,628

Black 525,082 23.4 $37,803

630,479 23.1 $35,438

Asian

65,048 11.9 $64,576

105,186 12.1 $63,692

Other 42,586 13.9 NA 40,000 11.9 NA

Total

3,117,609 15.4 $51,506

4,150,242 17.2 $50,043

*In 2009 DollarsSource: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and American Community Survey, 2009

Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Corpus Christi and Texas, 2009

Number Percent

Educational Attainment Anglo HispanicTotal

Population Anglo HispanicTotal

PopulationLess than high school 4,237 30,433 36,807 6.3 30.8 20.6H.S. diploma or equivalent 15,877 29,480 48,282 23.6 29.9 27.0Some college 23,471 27,682 56,042 34.8 28.0 31.3Bachelor's degree or more 23,781 11,141 37,864 35.3 11.3 21.2Population Age 25 and Older 67,366 98,736 178,995 100.0 100.0 100.0

Number Percent



PopulationLess than high school 667,138 2,071,537 3,093,666 8.3 42.5 20.1H.S. diploma or equivalent 2,028,759 1,227,751 3,906,082 25.3 25.2 25.4Some college 2,608,744 1,043,316 4,444,505 32.5 21.4 28.9Bachelor's degree or more 2,721,408 533,913 3,917,304 33.9 10.9 25.5Population Age 25 and Older 8,026,049 4,876,517 15,361,557 100.0 100.0 100.0

State of Texas

Corpus Christi

Source: American Community Survey Hobby Center for the Study of Texas at Rice University48

Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Nueces County and Texas, 2009

Number Percent




Number Percent




State of Texas

Nueces County


Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in San Patricio County and Texas, 2009

Number Percent




Number Percent




State of Texas

San Patricio County


Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Corpus Christi MSA and Texas, 2009

Number Percent




Number Percent




State of Texas

Corpus Christi MSA


Educational Attainment by Ethnicity in Texas and the United States, 2009

Number Percent




Number Percent



PopulationLess than high school 13,467,562 10,210,226 29,785,248 9.6 39.1 14.7H.S. diploma or equivalent 40,968,940 6,829,539 57,551,671 29.3 26.2 28.5Some college 41,990,049 5,778,537 58,279,810 30.0 22.1 28.9Bachelor's degree or more 43,535,648 3,288,285 56,335,654 31.1 12.6 27.9Population Age 25 and Older 139,962,199 26,106,587 201,952,383 100.0 100.0 100.0

United States

State of Texas


Occupation by Ethnicity in Corpus Christi and Texas, 2009

Number Percent

Occupation Anglo HispanicTotal

Workforce Anglo HispanicTotal

WorkforceProfessional 18,004 17,031 37,569 41.3 25.2 31.1Services 5,520 15,974 23,996 12.7 23.6 19.9Sales & Office 11,564 16,047 30,181 26.5 23.7 25.0Agriculture 86 340 572 0.2 0.5 0.5Construction, Extraction, Repair & Related 4,616 9,897 14,893 10.6 14.6 12.3Production, Transportation, & Related 3,805 8,380 13,658 8.7 12.4 11.3Civilian Workforce 43,595 67,669 120,869 100.0 100.0 100.0

Corpus Christi

State of Texas Number Percent



WorkforceProfessional 2,450,418 718,713 3,791,027 43.3 19.0 33.8Services 691,143 937,410 1,985,713 12.2 24.7 17.7Sales & Office 1,539,859 846,715 2,843,008 27.2 22.3 25.4Agriculture 23,128 36,984 63,306 0.4 1.0 0.6Construction, Extraction, Repair & Related 473,244 664,321 1,223,179 8.4 17.5 10.9Production, Transportation, & Related 481,603 587,263 1,305,378 8.5 15.5 11.6Civilian Workforce 5,659,395 3,791,406 11,211,611 100.0 100.0 100.0


Occupation by Ethnicity in Nueces County and Texas, 2009

Number Percent




Nueces County






Occupation by Ethnicity in San Patricio County and Texas, 2009

Number Percent




San Patricio County






Occupation by Ethnicity in Corpus Christi MSA and Texas, 2009

Number Percent



WorkforceProfessional 27,641 21,338 51,904 38.9 23.3 29.8Services 9,213 23,804 36,008 13.0 26.0 20.7Sales & Office 18,610 20,618 42,291 26.2 22.5 24.3Agriculture 452 888 1,486 0.6 1.0 0.9Construction, Extraction, Repair & Related 7,856 12,713 21,244 11.1 13.9 12.2Production, Transportation, & Related 7,289 12,160 21,327 10.3 13.3 12.2Civilian Workforce 71,061 91,521 174,260 100.0 100.0 100.0

Corpus Christi MSA






Occupation by Ethnicity in Texas and the United States, 2009

Number Percent




State of Texas

United States Number Percent



WorkforceProfessional 38,108,011 3,728,247 50,179,987 39.6 18.6 35.7Services 14,312,602 5,277,207 25,066,647 14.9 26.3 17.8Sales & Office 24,935,871 4,394,921 35,425,756 25.9 21.9 25.2Agriculture 442,765 475,857 988,070 0.5 2.4 0.7Construction, Extraction, Repair & Related 8,223,456 2,806,607 12,273,897 8.6 14.0 8.7Production, Transportation, & Related 10,148,918 3,372,212 16,668,113 10.6 16.8 11.9Civilian Workforce 96,171,623 20,055,051 140,602,470 100.0 100.0 100.0


Median Household Income by Householder Ethnicity in Selected Areas, 2009

Geographic Area Anglo HispanicAll

HouseholdsCorpus Christi $52,350 $36,538 $42,157 Nueces County $52,321 $34,881 $40,831 San Patricio County $57,139 $41,302 $47,838 Corpus Christi MSA $53,381 $34,935 $42,278 Texas $59,836 $35,628 $48,259 United States $54,671 $39,923 $50,221


PROJECTIONS

Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races2000 195,771 34,414 10,436 5,909 35,629 282,1582010 200,853 37,985 14,083 7,586 49,726 310,2332020 205,255 41,847 18,308 9,612 66,365 341,3872030 207,217 45,461 22,991 11,904 85,931 373,5042040 206,065 48,780 28,064 14,523 108,223 405,6552050 203,347 51,949 33,418 17,503 132,792 439,010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2008 National Projections

Year

(Resident population as of July 1. Numbers in thousands)Non-Hispanic

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Numeric Change in the Projected U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050 (in millions)

7.617.5

23.0

11.6

97.2

156.9

Non-HispanicWhite alone

Non-HispanicBlack alone

Non-HispanicAsian alone

Non-Hispanic allother races

Hispanic (anyrace)

Total


Projections of the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

White alone Black alone Asian aloneAll other

races2000 69.4 12.2 3.7 2.1 12.62010 64.7 12.2 4.5 2.4 16.02020 60.1 12.3 5.4 2.8 19.42030 55.5 12.2 6.2 3.2 23.02040 50.8 12.0 6.9 3.6 26.72050 46.3 11.8 7.6 4.0 30.2


Year

(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)Non-Hispanic

Hispanic (any race)

Projected Change in the U.S. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2000 to 2050

Non-Hispanic White alone5%

Non-Hispanic Black alone11%

Non-Hispanic Asian alone15%

Non-Hispanic Other7%

Hispanic62%


Projected Age Distribution of the U.S. Population: 2000 to 2050

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Under 5 years 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.45 to 19 years 21.7 20.3 19.9 19.7 19.4 19.320 to 44 years 36.9 33.8 32.7 32.0 31.5 31.745 to 64 years 22.1 26.1 24.7 22.6 22.7 22.465 to 84 years 10.9 11.1 14.1 17.0 16.5 15.885 years and over 1.5 1.9 1.9 2.3 3.5 4.3

Age Group(Percent of total resident population as of July 1)


Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age Groups: 2000

Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 69.4 12.2 3.7 2.1 12.6 100.0Under 5 years 58.7 14.4 3.6 3.8 19.5 100.05 to 17 years 62.1 15.0 3.4 3.1 16.4 100.018 to 24 years 62.0 13.9 4.2 2.5 17.4 100.025 to 44 years 67.4 12.5 4.4 1.9 13.8 100.045 to 64 years 76.7 10.4 3.5 1.5 7.9 100.065 years and over 83.7 8.0 2.3 0.9 5.0 100.0

65 to 74 years 81.6 8.7 2.7 1.1 5.9 100.075 to 84 years 85.8 7.2 2.0 0.8 4.1 100.085 years and over 86.9 7.3 1.5 0.7 3.6 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)

Projected Percent Race and Hispanic Origin Distribution of the U.S. Population by Selected Age

Groups: 2050Non-Hispanic White alone

Non-Hispanic Black alone

Non-Hispanic Asian alone

Non-Hispanic all other races

Hispanic (any race)

Total

Total 46.3 11.8 7.6 4.0 30.2 100.0Under 5 years 37.1 11.1 5.9 6.5 39.4 100.05 to 17 years 38.3 11.3 6.0 5.7 38.6 100.018 to 24 years 39.6 11.6 6.4 4.9 37.5 100.025 to 44 years 43.6 12.1 7.8 4.1 32.4 100.045 to 64 years 49.7 12.8 8.9 3.1 25.5 100.065 years and over 58.5 11.2 8.4 2.1 19.8 100.0

65 to 74 years 54.5 12.1 9.3 2.4 21.7 100.075 to 84 years 58.2 10.9 8.8 2.0 20.2 100.085 years and over 67.4 9.9 5.9 1.8 15.1 100.0


Age(Percent of each age group's resident population as of July 1)

Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projectionsof the Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other Total 2000 11,074,716 2,421,653 6,669,666 685,785 20,851,820 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 11,331,876 2,627,287 8,060,605 783,215 22,802,983 2020 11,381,134 2,771,406 9,336,505 841,642 24,330,687 2030 11,171,448 2,823,276 10,576,279 878,111 25,449,114 2040 10,733,060 2,796,623 11,662,274 893,152 26,085,109 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 11,533,976 2,754,751 9,080,459 961,460 24,330,646 2020 11,796,448 3,052,417 11,882,980 1,273,895 28,005,740 2030 11,789,274 3,268,623 15,140,100 1,632,578 31,830,575 2040 11,525,089 3,403,163 18,804,311 2,028,602 35,761,165 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 11,740,011 2,888,474 10,252,202 1,177,908 26,058,595 2020 12,227,572 3,361,698 15,226,394 1,921,052 32,736,716 2030 12,442,120 3,783,666 21,871,385 3,020,460 41,117,631 2040 12,376,306 4,140,679 30,604,633 4,585,923 51,707,541 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 11,441,595 2,925,751 9,847,852 1,158,749 25,373,947 2020 11,612,122 3,447,896 13,940,031 1,858,400 30,858,449 2030 11,525,269 3,922,900 18,973,424 2,863,893 37,285,486 2040 11,196,427 4,341,627 25,090,745 4,243,239 44,872,038

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Populationin Texas by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex

and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration Non-Hispanic Period White Black Hispanic Other Total Assuming Zero Net Migration 2000-2010 2.3 8.5 20.9 14.2 9.4 2010-2020 0.4 5.5 15.8 7.5 6.7 2020-2030 -1.8 1.9 13.3 4.3 4.6 2030-2040 -3.9 -0.9 10.3 1.7 2.5 2000-2040 -3.1 15.5 74.9 30.2 25.1

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2000-2010 4.1 13.8 36.1 40.2 16.7 2010-2020 2.3 10.8 30.9 32.5 15.1 2020-2030 -0.1 7.1 27.4 28.2 13.7 2030-2040 -2.2 4.1 24.2 24.3 12.3 2000-2040 4.1 40.5 181.9 195.8 71.5 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2000-2010 6.0 19.3 53.7 71.8 25.0 2010-2020 4.2 16.4 48.5 63.1 25.6 2020-2030 1.8 12.6 43.6 57.2 25.6 2030-2040 -0.5 9.4 39.9 51.8 25.8 2000-2040 11.8 71.0 358.9 568.7 148.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2000-2010 3.3 20.8 47.7 69.0 21.7 2010-2020 1.5 17.8 41.6 60.4 21.6 2020-2030 -0.7 13.8 36.1 54.1 20.8 2030-2040 -2.9 10.7 32.2 48.2 20.3 2000-2040 1.1 79.3 276.2 518.7 115.2

Percent of Population in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in2000 and Projections of the Population in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040

Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other 2000 53.1 11.6 32.0 3.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 49.8 11.5 35.3 3.4 2020 46.7 11.4 38.4 3.5 2030 43.8 11.1 41.6 3.5 2040 41.2 10.7 44.7 3.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 47.4 11.3 37.3 4.0 2020 42.2 10.9 42.4 4.5 2030 37.0 10.3 47.6 5.1 2040 32.2 9.5 52.6 5.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 45.1 11.1 39.3 4.5 2020 37.3 10.3 46.5 5.9 2030 30.3 9.2 53.2 7.3 2040 23.9 8.0 59.2 8.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 45.1 11.5 38.8 4.6 2020 37.6 11.2 45.2 6.0 2030 30.9 10.5 50.9 7.7 2040 24.9 9.7 55.9 9.5

Percent Anglo Population

Less Than 50% Anglo Population

50% or Greater Anglo PopulationSource: 2006 Population Projections, Texas State Data Center,Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio

2000

2040 2040(2000-2004 Scenario)(0.5 Scenario)

2040(1.0 Scenario)

Texas Counties with 50 Percent or More of Their Total Population That is Angloin 2000 and Projected for 2040 Under Alternative Projection Scenarios

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=66)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=70)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=80)

20.0 or more (n=38)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Census 2000 Summary File 1.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2000

Percent 65 Years Old and Older

< 11.9 (n=2)

12.0 - 14.9 (n=19)

15.0 - 19.9 (n=79)

20.0 or more (n=154)

Source: Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research,The University of Texas at San Antonio. Texas Population Estimatesand Projections Program, 2006 Projections.

Percent of Persons 65 Years of Age and Older in Texas Counties, 2040*

* Assuming rates of migration equal to 2000-2004

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative

Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Coastal Bend Council of Governments

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 211,723 20,925 308,190 8,174 549,012

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration

2010 214,009 22,226 352,071 9,485 597,7912020 212,552 23,308 389,237 10,377 635,4742030 206,367 23,759 419,870 10,846 660,8422040 198,448 23,557 442,907 10,976 675,888

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2010 213,946 22,802 374,776 10,993 622,5172020 211,318 24,522 440,665 14,072 690,5772030 201,933 25,604 501,925 17,238 746,7002040 188,909 25,830 556,767 20,358 791,864

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2010 211,886 23,679 397,173 13,490 646,2282020 203,702 26,455 491,175 21,095 742,4272030 185,478 28,324 576,970 32,087 822,8592040 161,045 29,061 650,540 46,660 887,306


2010 192,512 22,651 356,153 11,849 583,1652020 167,853 23,694 389,509 15,645 596,7012030 137,520 23,450 401,620 19,433 582,0232040 107,037 21,951 392,741 23,512 545,241

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of

Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Coastal Bend Council of Governments

Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration

2000-2010 1.1 6.2 14.2 16.0 8.92010-2020 -0.7 4.9 10.6 9.4 6.32020-2030 -2.9 1.9 7.9 4.5 4.02030-2040 -3.8 -0.9 5.5 1.2 2.32000-2040 -6.3 12.6 43.7 34.3 23.1

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000

2000-2010 1.0 9.0 21.6 34.5 13.42010-2020 -1.2 7.5 17.6 28.0 10.92020-2030 -4.4 4.4 13.9 22.5 8.12030-2040 -6.4 0.9 10.9 18.1 6.02000-2040 -10.8 23.4 80.7 149.1 44.2

Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000

2000-2010 0.1 13.2 28.9 65.0 17.72010-2020 -3.9 11.7 23.7 56.4 14.92020-2030 -8.9 7.1 17.5 52.1 10.82030-2040 -13.2 2.6 12.8 45.4 7.82000-2040 -23.9 38.9 111.1 470.8 61.6


2000-2010 -9.1 8.2 15.6 45.0 6.22010-2020 -12.8 4.6 9.4 32.0 2.32020-2030 -18.1 -1.0 3.1 24.2 -2.52030-2040 -22.2 -6.4 -2.2 21.0 -6.32000-2040 -49.4 4.9 27.4 187.6 -0.7

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under

Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Coastal Bend Council of Governments

Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

2000 38.6 3.8 56.1 1.5


2010 35.8 3.7 58.9 1.62020 33.4 3.7 61.3 1.62030 31.3 3.6 63.5 1.62040 29.4 3.5 65.5 1.6


2010 34.3 3.7 60.2 1.82020 30.6 3.6 63.8 2.02030 27.1 3.4 67.2 2.32040 23.8 3.3 70.3 2.6


2010 32.7 3.7 61.5 2.12020 27.4 3.6 66.2 2.82030 22.6 3.4 70.1 3.92040 18.1 3.3 73.3 5.3


2010 33.0 3.9 61.1 2.02020 28.1 4.0 65.3 2.62030 23.7 4.0 69.0 3.32040 19.7 4.0 72.0 4.3

Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from

2020 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Coastal Bend

Council of GovernmentsAgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios

<18 21.7 28.1 32.9 25.7 28.318-24 8.3 13.9 11.7 11.0 10.525-44 27.5 33.1 28.7 33.3 28.445-64 25.6 16.3 18.2 23.6 21.165+ 16.9 8.6 8.5 6.4 11.7

Assuming Rates of Zero Migration

2020

<18 20.4 21.6 29.0 20.8 25.718-24 7.5 12.3 10.5 8.2 9.625-44 25.7 34.1 27.9 24.9 27.345-64 25.3 21.1 21.0 25.9 22.565+ 21.1 10.9 11.6 20.2 14.9

2040

<18 17.9 17.1 24.4 16.2 22.118-24 7.7 11.0 9.8 7.3 9.225-44 24.3 30.3 27.7 22.2 26.745-64 25.6 25.9 22.8 22.8 23.765+ 24.5 15.7 15.3 31.5 18.3

Percent of Net Change in the Population from 2000-2040 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Alternative

Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Coastal Bend Council of Governments

Race Number Percent


Anglo -13,275 -10.5Black 2,632 2.1Hispanic 134,717 106.2Other 2,802 2.2Total 126,876 100.0






Anglo -104,686 2776.0Black 1,026 -27.2Hispanic 84,551 -2242.1Other 15,338 -406.7Total -3,771 100.0

Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex

and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Corpus Christi Metropolitian Statistical Area


2000 168,207 15,544 212,703 6,826 403,280


2010 170,536 16,482 243,953 7,870 438,8412020 169,748 17,338 270,409 8,630 466,1252030 164,991 17,645 292,533 9,024 484,1932040 158,596 17,393 308,723 9,161 493,873


2010 169,761 17,037 264,678 9,370 460,8462020 167,613 18,578 318,205 12,299 516,6952030 160,128 19,570 369,853 15,382 564,9332040 149,848 19,821 417,978 18,485 606,132


2010 167,414 17,829 285,689 11,761 482,6932020 160,641 20,376 367,889 19,021 567,9272030 146,406 22,262 446,978 29,678 645,3242040 127,730 23,213 519,696 44,012 714,651


2010 149,486 16,748 249,430 10,065 425,7292020 127,536 17,494 277,275 13,676 435,9812030 102,293 17,216 289,712 17,423 426,6442040 77,805 15,937 287,020 21,347 402,109

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Population by Race/Ethnicity Under Alternative Scenarios of

Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Corpus Christi Metropolitian Statistical Area

Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total


2000-2010 1.4 6.0 14.7 15.3 8.82010-2020 -0.5 5.2 10.8 9.7 6.22020-2030 -2.8 1.8 8.2 4.6 3.92030-2040 -3.9 -1.4 5.5 1.5 2.02000-2040 -5.7 11.9 45.1 34.2 22.5


2000-2010 0.9 9.6 24.4 37.3 14.32010-2020 -1.3 9.0 20.2 31.3 12.12020-2030 -4.5 5.3 16.2 25.1 9.32030-2040 -6.4 1.3 13.0 20.2 7.32000-2040 -10.9 27.5 96.5 170.8 50.3


2000-2010 -0.5 14.7 34.3 72.3 19.72010-2020 -4.0 14.3 28.8 61.7 17.72020-2030 -8.9 9.3 21.5 56.0 13.62030-2040 -12.8 4.3 16.3 48.3 10.72000-2040 -24.1 49.3 144.3 544.8 77.2


2000-2010 -11.1 7.7 17.3 47.5 5.62010-2020 -14.7 4.5 11.2 35.9 2.42020-2030 -19.8 -1.6 4.5 27.4 -2.12030-2040 -23.9 -7.4 -0.9 22.5 -5.82000-2040 -53.7 2.5 34.9 212.7 -0.3


2000 41.7 3.9 52.7 1.7


2010 38.8 3.8 55.6 1.82020 36.4 3.7 58.0 1.92030 34.1 3.6 60.4 1.92040 32.1 3.5 62.5 1.9


2010 36.9 3.7 57.4 2.02020 32.4 3.6 61.6 2.42030 28.3 3.5 65.5 2.72040 24.7 3.3 69.0 3.0


2010 34.7 3.7 59.2 2.42020 28.3 3.6 64.8 3.32030 22.7 3.4 69.3 4.62040 17.9 3.2 72.7 6.2


2010 35.1 3.9 58.6 2.42020 29.3 4.0 63.6 3.12030 24.0 4.0 67.9 4.12040 19.3 4.0 71.4 5.3

Percent of Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections of the Population by Race/Ethnicity from 2010 to

2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Corpus Christi

Metropolitian Statistical Area

Percent of Population by Age Group and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Percent of Population by Age and Race/Ethnicity from

2020 to 2040 Under Alternative Scenarios of Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Corpus Christi

Metropolitian Statistical AreaAgeGroup Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

All Scenarios

<18 18.3 19.2 24.8 17.0 22.418-24 7.7 8.7 9.7 6.8 8.925-44 24.0 26.6 27.5 21.9 26.345-64 25.3 28.7 22.7 23.1 23.765+ 24.7 16.8 15.3 31.2 18.7

Assuming Rates of Zero Migration

2020

<18 22.1 32.9 33.5 26.5 28.618-24 8.1 11.2 11.7 10.0 10.125-44 27.7 28.1 28.9 33.3 28.545-64 25.7 17.8 18.0 23.9 21.365+ 16.4 10.0 7.9 6.3 11.5

2040

<18 20.2 24.5 28.9 20.3 25.718-24 7.3 10.1 10.6 7.1 9.425-44 24.7 30.6 30.8 26.0 28.845-64 25.8 23.6 19.7 28.8 22.065+ 22.0 11.2 10.0 17.8 14.1

Percent of Net Change in the Population from 2000-2040 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Alternative Scenarios of

Age/Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for the Corpus Christi Metropolitian Statistical Area

Race Number Percent








Anglo -90,402 7720.2Black 393 -33.6Hispanic 74,317 -6346.5Other 14,521 -1240.1Total -1,171 100.0

U.S. EDUCATION

Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment

in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other Total

Total Enrollment

2000 48,210,516 11,401,765 11,583,495 5,577,745 76,773,521 2010 45,818,641 11,372,040 15,839,927 6,911,552 79,942,160 2020 44,987,166 11,616,295 20,623,690 8,545,532 85,772,683 2030 44,729,776 12,139,946 25,763,323 10,190,591 92,823,636 2040 43,321,445 12,364,257 31,741,606 12,027,667 99,454,975 2050 42,431,107 12,801,740 37,970,089 14,123,748 107,326,684

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000 36,491,940 9,163,622 9,695,332 3,917,404 59,268,298 2010 33,735,042 8,825,219 13,412,715 4,858,347 60,831,323 2020 33,566,335 8,984,880 17,413,828 6,023,510 65,988,553 2030 33,328,448 9,393,383 21,607,545 7,063,674 71,393,050 2040 31,941,753 9,463,222 26,572,664 8,308,712 76,286,351 2050 31,386,808 9,786,556 31,637,838 9,745,502 82,556,704

College Enrollment 2000 11,718,576 2,238,143 1,888,163 1,660,341 17,505,223 2010 12,083,599 2,546,821 2,427,212 2,053,205 19,110,837 2020 11,420,831 2,631,415 3,209,862 2,522,022 19,784,130 2030 11,401,328 2,746,563 4,155,778 3,126,917 21,430,586 2040 11,379,692 2,901,035 5,168,942 3,718,955 23,168,624 2050 11,044,299 3,015,184 6,332,251 4,378,246 24,769,980

Percent of Projected Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment

in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other

Total Enrollment

2000 62.7 14.9 15.1 7.3 2010 57.4 14.2 19.8 8.6 2020 52.5 13.5 24.0 10.0 2030 48.1 13.1 27.8 11.0 2040 43.6 12.4 31.9 12.1 2050 39.5 11.9 35.4 13.2

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000 61.5 15.5 16.4 6.6 2010 55.5 14.5 22.0 8.0 2020 50.9 13.6 26.4 9.1 2030 46.6 13.2 30.3 9.9 2040 41.9 12.4 34.8 10.9 2050 38.0 11.9 38.3 11.8

College Enrollment 2000 66.9 12.8 10.8 9.5 2010 63.3 13.3 12.7 10.7 2020 57.8 13.3 16.2 12.7 2030 53.2 12.8 19.4 14.6 2040 49.1 12.5 22.3 16.1 2050 44.5 12.2 25.6 17.7

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Elementaryand Secondary School, Community College and Public University

Enrollment in the United States by Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Origin Other Total

Total Enrollment 2000-2010 -5.0 -0.3 36.7 23.9 4.1 2010-2020 -1.8 2.1 30.2 23.6 7.3 2020-2030 -0.6 4.5 24.9 19.3 8.2 2030-2040 -3.1 1.8 23.2 18.0 7.1 2040-2050 -2.1 3.5 19.6 17.4 7.9 2000-2050 -12.0 12.3 227.8 153.2 39.8

Elementary and Secondary Enrollment 2000-2010 -7.6 -3.7 38.3 24.0 2.6 2010-2020 -0.5 1.8 29.8 24.0 8.5 2020-2030 -0.7 4.5 24.1 17.3 8.2 2030-2040 -4.2 0.7 23.0 17.6 6.9 2040-2050 -1.7 3.4 19.1 17.3 8.2 2000-2050 -14.0 6.8 226.3 148.8 39.3

College Enrollment 2000-2010 3.1 13.8 28.5 23.7 9.2 2010-2020 -5.5 3.3 32.2 22.8 3.5 2020-2030 -0.2 4.4 29.5 24.0 8.3 2030-2040 -0.2 5.6 24.4 18.9 8.1 2040-2050 -2.9 3.9 22.5 17.7 6.9 2000-2050 -5.8 34.7 235.4 163.7 41.5

Percent of Net Change in Elementary and Secondary School, Community College and Public University Enrollment in the

United States Due to Each Race/Ethnicity, 2000-2050

Race Number Percent

Total Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -5,779,409 -19.0 Non-Hispanic Black 1,399,975 4.6 Hispanic Origin 26,386,594 86.4 Non-Hispanic Other 8,546,003 28.0 Total 30,553,163 100.0 Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -5,105,132 -21.9 Non-Hispanic Black 622,934 2.7 Hispanic Origin 21,942,506 94.2 Non-Hispanic Other 5,828,098 25.0 Total 23,288,406 100.0 College Enrollment Non-Hispanic White -674,277 -9.3 Non-Hispanic Black 777,041 10.7 Hispanic Origin 4,444,088 61.2 Non-Hispanic Other 2,717,905 37.4 Total 7,264,757 100.0

U.S. LABOR FORCE

Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United States from2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity from the Middle Projection Scenario

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other Total

2000 100,177,990 14,453,507 14,719,717 8,317,584 137,668,798 2010 102,572,104 16,572,350 20,337,473 10,991,486 150,473,413 2020 99,503,638 17,955,037 26,838,744 13,848,138 158,145,557 2030 96,065,987 19,025,575 34,158,931 17,002,785 166,253,278 2040 94,977,559 20,209,376 42,394,793 20,351,836 177,933,564 2050 93,550,875 21,127,696 52,120,668 24,013,290 190,812,529

Percent of the Projections of the Civilian Labor Force of the United Statesfrom 2001 to 2050 by Race/Ethnicity for the Middle Projection Scenario

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Year White Black Hispanic Other

2000 72.8 10.5 10.7 6.0 2010 68.2 11.0 13.5 7.3 2020 62.8 11.4 17.0 8.8 2030 57.9 11.4 20.5 10.2 2040 53.4 11.4 23.8 11.4 2050 49.0 11.1 27.3 12.6

Percent Change for Selected Time Periods for Projected Civilian LaborForce by Race/Ethnicity for The United States, 2000-2050

Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic Non-Hispanic TIME White Black Hispanic Other Total

2000-2010 2.4 14.7 38.2 32.1 9.3 2010-2020 -3.0 8.3 32.0 26.0 5.1 2020-2030 -3.5 6.0 27.3 22.8 5.1 2030-2040 -1.1 6.2 24.1 19.7 7.0 2040-2050 -1.5 4.5 22.9 18.0 7.2 2000-2050 -6.6 46.2 254.1 188.7 38.6

Percent of Net Change in the U.S. Civilian Labor Force from 2000-2050 Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group Under Middle Scenario

Race/Ethnicity Number Percent

Non-Hispanic White -6,627,115 -12.5 Non-Hispanic Black 6,674,189 12.6 Hispanic 37,400,951 70.4 Non-Hispanic Other 15,695,706 29.5 Total 53,143,731 100.0

TEXAS EDUCATION

Enrollment and Change in Enrollment of Economically Disadvantaged and All Students by Ethnicity in Texas

Public Schools, 1998-99 and 2008-09 School Years

Enrollment 10-Year Change

Race/Ethnic Category 1998-99 2008-09 Numeric Percent

Economically DisadvantagedWhite 368,387 402,057 33,670 9.1African American 364,434 460,703 96,269 26.4Other 36,589 57,852 21,263 58.1Hispanic 1,146,071 1,765,647 619,576 54.1Total 1,915,481 2,686,259 770,778 40.2

TotalWhite 1,746,896 1,616,115 -130,781 -7.5African American 568,757 671,871 103,114 18.1Other 112,068 186,487 74,419 66.4Hispanic 1,526,713 2,275,098 748,385 49.0Total 3,954,434 4,749,571 795,137 20.1

Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools, 2008-09 http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/research/pdfs/enrollment_2008-09.pdf

District/County/School Year White (%)African American

(%)

Hispanic (%)

Asian/Pacific Islander (%)

Native American

(%)

Total Enrollment

Houston ISD (Harris)2000-2001 10.0 32.1 54.9 2.9 .1 208,4622007-2008 8.0 28.4 60.3 3.2 .1 198,769

Dallas ISD (Dallas)2000-2001 7.8 35.9 54.5 1.4 .4 161,5482007-2008 4.8 28.7 65.3 1.0 .2 157,605

Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (Harris)2000-2001 58.5 10.0 23.4 7.9 .2 63,4972007-2008 38.8 15.2 37.1 8.6 .3 96,546

Northside ISD (Bexar)2000-2001 36.7 6.6 54.3 2.2 .2 63,7392007-2008 25.4 7.8 63.2 3.3 .3 85,544

Austin ISD (Travis)2000-2001 33.7 15.7 47.8 2.5 .3 77,8162007-2008 26.4 12.1 58.0 3.3 .2 82,181

Fort Worth ISD ( Tarrant)2000-2001 21.4 30.9 45.4 2.1 .2 79,6612007-2008 14.3 25.6 58.2 1.6 .3 78,732

Fort Bend ISD (Fort Bend)2000-2001 37.8 28.0 18.1 16.0 .1 53,9992007-2008 24.4 31.8 23.0 20.6 .2 67,780

Arlington ISD (Tarrant)2000-2001 47.3 21.3 24.0 6.8 .6 58,8662007-2008 31.4 23.9 37.2 7.1 .4 62,560

North East ISD (Bexar)2000-2001 49.1 9.4 38.8 2.5 .2 50,8752007-2008 39.2 9.4 47.4 3.7 .3 61,910

El Paso ISD (El Paso)2000-2001 15.2 4.8 78.5 1.2 .3 62,3252007-2008 12.2 4.8 81.3 1.4 .3 61,839

Total Public School Students by Race/Ethnicity in the 10 Largest* School Districts in Texas, 2000-2001 and 2007-2008

*Largest enrollment based on 2007-2008 school yearSource: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center from Texas Education Agency, Academic Excellence Indicator System (AEIS) District Profiles

Texas Higher Education Enrollment in Public Universities, Public 2-year Colleges andHealth-related Institutions by Race/Ethnicity, 2000 and 2008

Enrollment by Race/Ethnicity

Public Univ

Public 2-year Colleges

Health-related Institutions

2000 Enrollment

White (%) 58.4 52.8 61.3

African American (%) 9.8 11.0 4.9

Hispanic (%) 19.6 28.9 12.6

Asian (%) 5.7 3.9 14.6

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .5

International (%) 5.3 2.4 4.8

Unknown (%) .7 .5 1.3

Total 2000 Enrollment 414,626 447,998 13,806

2008 Enrollment

White (%) 50.4 45.2 51.3

African American (%) 11.6 11.8 6.6

Hispanic (%) 24.3 34.1 13.8

Asian (%) 6.6 4.2 14.5

American Indian (%) .5 .5 .6

International (%) 5.7 2.5 9.7

Unknown (%) .9 1.7 3.5

Total 2008 Enrollment 509,136 617,507 20,421

Source: Data compiled by the Texas State Data Center using data from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board (THECB)

Public Elementary and Secondary Public CommunityCollege, and Public University Enrollment in Texas by

Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 AssumingRates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)


Total Public Education (All Levels)

2000 2,186,097 661,995 1,785,676 160,507 4,794,275 2010 2,125,643 693,172 2,367,308 231,798 5,417,921 2020 2,106,211 731,976 3,308,472 326,936 6,473,595 2030 1,992,718 746,148 4,324,751 432,828 7,496,445 2040 1,852,133 739,828 5,596,378 590,265 8,778,604

Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 1,727,733 576,977 1,582,538 114,979 4,002,227 2010 1,643,722 588,781 2,065,327 164,425 4,462,255 2020 1,643,592 619,318 2,892,656 227,683 5,383,249 2030 1,527,293 623,104 3,729,428 287,975 6,167,800 2040 1,411,454 612,608 4,803,635 397,902 7,225,599

Public Community Colleges 2000 230,497 46,742 124,057 19,782 421,078 2010 239,191 56,798 184,582 29,824 510,395 2020 232,120 62,178 254,482 44,330 593,110 2030 232,363 68,156 364,216 65,020 729,755 2040 220,266 70,850 485,107 88,280 864,503

Public Universities 2000 227,867 38,276 79,081 25,746 370,970 2010 242,730 47,593 117,399 37,549 445,271 2020 230,499 50,480 161,334 54,923 497,236 2030 233,062 54,888 231,107 79,833 598,890 2040 220,413 56,370 307,636 104,083 688,502

Total Public Colleges and Universities 2000 458,364 85,018 203,138 45,528 792,048 2010 481,921 104,391 301,981 67,373 955,666 2020 462,619 112,658 415,816 99,253 1,090,346 2030 465,425 123,044 595,323 144,853 1,328,645 2040 440,679 127,220 792,743 192,363 1,553,005

Percent of Public Elementary and Secondary, PublicCommunity College and Public University Enrollment in Texasby Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming

Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other

Public Education (All Levels)

2000 45.7 13.8 37.2 3.3 2010 39.2 12.8 43.7 4.3 2020 32.5 11.3 51.1 5.1 2030 26.5 10.0 57.7 5.8 2040 21.1 8.4 63.8 6.7

Public Elementary and Secondary 2000 43.2 14.4 39.5 2.9 2010 36.8 13.2 46.3 3.7 2020 30.6 11.5 53.7 4.2 2030 24.7 10.1 60.5 4.7 2040 19.5 8.5 66.5 5.5

Public Community Colleges 2000 54.7 11.1 29.5 4.7 2010 46.9 11.1 36.2 5.8 2020 39.1 10.5 42.9 7.5 2030 31.9 9.3 49.9 8.9 2040 25.5 8.2 56.1 10.2

Public Universities 2000 61.5 10.3 21.3 6.9 2010 54.5 10.7 26.4 8.4 2020 46.4 10.2 32.4 11.0 2030 38.9 9.2 38.6 13.3 2040 32.0 8.2 44.7 15.1

Total Public Colleges and Universities 2000 58.0 10.7 25.6 5.7 2010 50.5 10.9 31.6 7.0 2020 42.5 10.3 38.1 9.1 2030 35.0 9.3 44.8 10.9 2040 28.4 8.2 51.0 12.4

Percent Change in Projected Public Elementary andSecondary, Public Community College and Public University

Enrollment in Texas Assuming Rates of Net MigrationEqual to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

Time Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Total Public Education (All Levels)

2000-2010 -2.8 4.7 32.6 44.4 13.0 2010-2020 -0.9 5.6 39.8 41.0 19.5 2020-2030 -5.4 1.9 30.7 32.4 15.8 2030-2040 -7.1 -0.8 29.4 36.4 17.1 2000-2040 -15.3 11.8 213.4 267.8 83.1

Public Elementary and Secondary Schools 2000-2010 -4.9 2.0 30.5 43.0 11.5 2010-2020 -0.0 5.2 40.1 38.5 20.6 2020-2030 -7.1 0.6 28.9 26.5 14.6 2030-2040 -7.6 -1.7 28.8 38.2 17.2 2000-2040 -18.3 6.2 203.5 246.1 80.5

Public Community Colleges 2000-2010 3.8 21.5 48.8 50.8 21.2 2010-2020 -3.0 9.5 37.9 48.6 16.2 2020-2030 0.1 9.6 43.1 46.7 23.0 2030-2040 -5.2 4.0 33.2 35.8 18.5 2000-2040 -4.4 51.6 291.0 346.3 105.3

Public Universities 2000-2010 6.5 24.3 48.5 45.8 20.0 2010-2020 -5.0 6.1 37.4 46.3 11.7 2020-2030 1.1 8.7 43.2 45.4 20.4 2030-2040 -5.4 2.7 33.1 30.4 15.0 2000-2040 -3.3 47.3 289.0 304.3 85.6

Total Public Colleges and Universities 2000-2010 5.1 22.8 48.7 48.0 20.7 2010-2020 -4.0 7.9 37.7 47.3 14.1 2020-2030 0.6 9.2 43.2 45.9 21.9 2030-2040 -5.3 3.4 33.2 32.8 16.9 2000-2040 -3.9 49.6 290.2 322.5 96.1

Number and Percent of Net Change in Projected Public Elementaryand Secondary, Public Community College and Public University

Enrollment in Texas Due To Each Race/Ethnicity Group,Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario)

Race/ Ethnicity Number Percent

Total Public Education (All Levels) Anglo -333,964 -8.4 Black 77,833 2.0 Hispanic 3,810,702 95.6 Other 429,758 10.8 Total 3,984,329 100.0 Public Elementary and Secondary Anglo -316,279 -9.8 Black 35,631 1.1 Hispanic 3,221,097 99.9 Other 282,923 8.8 Total 3,223,372 100.0 Public College Colleges Anglo -10,231 -2.2 Black 24,108 5.4 Hispanic 361,050 81.4 Other 68,498 15.4 Total 443,425 100.0 Public Universities Anglo -7,454 -2.4 Black 18,094 5.7 Hispanic 228,555 72.0 Other 78,337 24.7 Total 317,532 100.0 Total Public Colleges and Universities Anglo -17,685 -2.3 Black 42,202 5.5 Hispanic 589,605 77.5 Other 146,835 19.3 Total 760,957 100.0

Future Demands for Specific Programs

Source: The New Texas Challenge: Population Change and the Future of Texas

186.8%

119.9%

48.5%

183%

188.1%

64.7%

101.9%

69.9%

Bilingual/ESL

Economically Disadvantaged

Gifted and Talented

Immigrants

Limited English Proficiency (LEP)

Special Education

Title 1

Career and Technology Education

0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

2000-2040 Percent Change

76.2% Elementary and Secondary Enrollment Growth

TEXAS LABOR FORCE

Projections of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/EthnicityAssuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000 to 2040


2000 5,741,765 1,053,552 2,700,075 335,167 9,830,559 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 5,810,029 1,199,667 3,299,753 368,732 10,678,181 2020 5,563,393 1,265,378 3,850,987 372,710 11,052,468 2030 5,312,914 1,279,307 4,332,859 364,545 11,289,625 2040 5,110,308 1,274,155 4,722,681 352,305 11,459,449 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 5,922,120 1,258,663 3,805,362 464,481 11,450,626 2020 5,778,384 1,395,998 5,071,050 586,070 12,831,502 2030 5,619,763 1,485,116 6,539,041 707,879 14,351,799 2040 5,497,055 1,557,689 8,111,449 833,779 15,999,972 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 6,036,408 1,320,511 4,394,254 582,258 12,333,431 2020 6,001,817 1,539,959 6,720,289 915,688 15,177,753 2030 5,944,488 1,723,492 9,917,813 1,364,129 18,949,922 2040 5,913,114 1,903,402 13,980,316 1,958,552 23,755,384 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 5,886,054 1,346,947 4,278,133 583,323 12,094,457 2020 5,710,962 1,593,503 6,293,283 901,517 14,499,265 2030 5,528,586 1,803,590 8,824,223 1,304,376 17,460,775 2040 5,378,380 2,015,813 11,638,896 1,788,788 20,821,877

Percent Change in Projected Civilian Labor Force in Texas byRace/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,

2000-2040Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total

Assuming Zero Net Migration 2000-2010 1.2 13.9 22.2 10.0 8.6 2010-2020 4.2 5.5 16.7 1.1 3.5 2020-2030 4.5 1.1 12.5 2.2 2.1 2030-2040 3.8 0.4 9.0 3.4 1.5 2000-2040 11.0 20.9 74.9 5.1 16.6

Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2000-2010 3.1 19.5 40.9 38.6 16.5 2010-2020 2.4 10.9 33.3 26.2 12.1 2020-2030 2.7 6.4 28.9 20.8 11.8 2030-2040 2.2 4.9 24.0 17.8 11.5 2000-2040 4.3 47.9 200.4 148.8 62.8 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2000-2010 5.1 25.3 62.7 73.7 25.5 2010-2020 0.6 16.6 52.9 57.3 23.1 2020-2030 1.0 11.9 47.6 49.0 24.9 2030-2040 0.5 10.4 41.0 43.6 25.4 2000-2040 3.0 80.7 417.8 484.4 141.6 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2000-2010 2.5 27.8 58.4 74.0 23.0 2010-2020 3.0 18.3 47.1 54.5 19.9 2020-2030 3.2 13.2 40.2 44.7 20.4 2030-2040 2.7 11.8 31.9 37.1 19.2 2000-2040 6.3 91.3 331.1 433.7 111.8

Projections of the Percent of Civilian Labor Force in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios,

2000-2040


2000 58.4 10.7 27.5 3.4

Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration 2010 54.4 11.2 30.9 3.5 2020 50.4 11.4 34.8 3.4 2030 47.1 11.3 38.4 3.2 2040 44.6 11.1 41.2 3.1

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 2010 51.7 11.0 33.2 4.1 2020 45.0 10.9 39.5 4.6 2030 39.2 10.3 45.6 4.9 2040 34.4 9.7 50.7 5.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 2010 49.0 10.7 35.6 4.7 2020 39.6 10.1 44.3 6.0 2030 31.4 9.1 52.3 7.2 2040 24.9 8.0 58.9 8.2

Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 2010 48.7 11.1 35.4 4.8 2020 39.4 11.0 43.4 6.2 2030 31.7 10.3 50.5 7.5 2040 25.8 9.7 55.9 8.6

Number and percent of Net Change in the Civilian Labor Force in Texas Due to Each Race/Ethnicity Group, Assuming

Alternative Projection ScenariosRace Number Percent

Assuming Zero Net Migration Anglo -631,457 -38.8 Black 220,603 13.5 Hspnc 2,022,606 124.2 Other 17,138 1.1 Total 1,628,890 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 Anglo -244,710 -4.0 Black 504,137 8.2 Hspnc 5,411,374 87.7 Other 498,612 8.1 Total 6,169,413 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 Anglo 171,349 1.2 Black 849,850 6.1 Hspnc 11,280,241 81.0 Other 1,623,385 11.7 Total 13,924,825 100.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2007 Anglo -363,385 -3.3 Black 962,261 8.8 Hspnc 8,938,821 81.3 Other 1,453,621 13.2 Total 10,991,318 100.0

Average Household Income in Texas, 2000-2040* (in 2000 Dollars)


$54,441

$52,639

$50,903

$49,326

$47,883

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

Projected Percent of Households in Poverty by Family Type in Texas, 2000 and 2040


11.4

7.5

15.0

26.7

18.9

14.415.4

11.8

17.0

30.0

18.9

16.6

Family Households

Married Couple

Male Householder

Female Householder

Nonfamily Households

Total Households

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Percent in Poverty

2000 2040

Projected Percent of Labor Force by Educational Attainment in Texas, 2000 and 2040


18.8

29 28.7

18.2

5.3

30.128.7

23.9

12.9

4.4

No High School Diploma

High School Graduate

Some College

Bachelor's Degree

Graduate/Prof.Degree

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Percent

2000 2040

Average Annual Household Income in Texas and the United States by Educational Attainment of Householder in 2000*

*From Census 2000 Public Use Microdata Sample (1% File)

$30,412

$42,271

$52,552

$80,950

$102,410

$32,473

$44,068

$54,467

$80,327

$104,294

Less ThanHigh School

High SchoolGraduate

Some College or Associate Degree

Bachelor'sDegree

Graduate/ProfessionalDegree

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

Average Income

Texas United States

Percent of Persons 25 Years of Age or Older by Level of Educational Attainment and Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected to 2040* Assuming 1990-2000 Trends in Educational Attainment Rates

*Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

12.7

25.7

31.6

30.0

24.0

29.9

30.6

15.5

50.7

22.0

18.4

8.9

21.0

16.1

20.6

42.3

2.2

16.6

33.4

47.8

4.3

25.6

40.5

29.6

32.1

25.8

24.1

18.0

13.4

7.6

11.0

68.0

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc.

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

< High School

High School

Some Coll/Assoc

Bachelor's +

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0

Percent

2000 2040

Black

Hispanic

Other

Anglo

Aggregate Income and Consumer Expenditures for Population 25 Years of Age or Older in Texas in 2000 and Projected Under

Alternative Educational Attainment Assumptions for 2040*

*Source: Texas State Data Center. Projections are shown for the 1.0 scenario

$251

$621

$765

$938

$210

$528

$629

$752

2000Base Values

2040 Assuming2000 Attainment

Differentials

2040 Assuming1990-2000 Trends

in Differentials

2040 AssumingAnglo Trends

Apply to all Groups

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

Billions

Aggregate Income Consumer Expenditures

The mark of a truly educated man is to be

moved deeply by statistics.

George Bernard Shaw

Steve MurdockPhone: 210-867-4385

E-mail: [email protected]

rice university corpus christi, texas october 14, 2010

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