rey ty, public opinion, political science, roskin, chapter 8
TRANSCRIPT
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion
Rey Ty
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Rey Ty
Source:•Michael G. Roskin, Robert L. Cord, James A. Medeiros, & Walter S. Jones. (2012). Political Science: An Introduction. New York: Pearson Longman.
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion
Citizens’ reaction to current leaders’ actions, issues, and events
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion & Social Class
Lower Class
Middle Class
Upper Class
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Measuring Public Opinion
Subjective:
ask people
Objective:
data on income & quality of
neighborhood
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Public Opinion: What Matters
Class Region Religion Age Gender Ethnicity
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion
Class
Region
Religion
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion
Class
Region
Religion
Age
Gender
Ethnicity
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Rey Ty
Classic Opinion Curves•J-Curve or Stable Curve: Opinion curve is skewed to one side, if there are few doubters on an issue
Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rey Ty
Classic Opinion Curves•Bell-Curve or Uni-Modal Distribution: Opinion curve is mostly in the moderate center, with very few at the extreme left & right
Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rey Ty
Classic Opinion Curves•U-Curve (Extreme Division): Bi-modal distribution for polarizing issues; more extremes than moderates
Copyright @ 2012, 2010, 2008 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Rey Ty
Shape of Public Opinion
Some regions are more
conservative
Peripheries resent the
capital: center-
periphery tensions
Regional politics matter;
region can undermine
political party
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion Polls
No well-defined patterns in opinion
distribution, as most folks don’t pay
attention to politics most of the time
On most matters, only a small
minority pays attention to news to have a well-defined
opinion
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Rey Ty
Public Opinion Polls
Select random sample for accuracy
Reach the sample; replies
not representative as
responders are self-selected;
problems with phone surveys
too
Ask the unbiased questions to
avoid slanting responses
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Are Polls Reliable?
Public opinion is unstable,
changes quickly with changing
events
In general, public opinion
surveys are reliable but
there are limits
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Rey Ty
U.S. Presidents’
Rating
1
Honeymoon
2
Rally Events
3
Later in the term
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U.S. Presidents’ Rating
Honeymoon: Usually begin
with high ratings in early
term & then decline as
problems pile up
Rally Events: With crisis,
presidents have spikes in public support (rally
events) but only short term
Later in their terms,
Presidents willfully appear
dramatically decisive to
improve sagging popularity
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Rey Ty
U.S. Public Opinion
Most Americans are conservatives (not liberal), but many
call themselves moderates
Most industrial countries are
unimodal like the U.S., making
democracy possible
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Rey Ty
U.S. Public Opinion
Selective Perception:
People selectively pay
attention to matters that affect them
directly
Satisfaction: Some with be
satisfied, while others
dissatisfied
Political Competence: The fewer but
attentive public has ore impact,
as they voice out their ideas
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Gabriel Almond’s 3 Publics
General Public: Most people focus on their immediate
concerns (not foreign policy, except war or
international crisis)
Attentive Public: Better educated; follow abstract
concerns, such as foreign policy; elites
pay attention to them, as they might
need to mobilize the general public
Policy & Opinion Elite: Very
influential people making policy, such as representatives,
senators, & appointed officials who make policies
to other publics
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Is Polling Fair?Polls monitor & make
opinions
When media shows which candidate leads by a wide margin,
the underdog’s campaign loses contributions & supporters
Exit polls interview voters; can skew election results
Some media outlets practice self-discipline by not reporting on poll
results, until all polls in the country have closed
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Rey Ty
Reference:•Michael G. Roskin, Robert L. Cord, James A. Medeiros, & Walter S. Jones. (2012). Political Science: An Introduction. New York: Pearson Longman.
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OpinionRey Ty