RETURN TOREPORTS DESK T RESTRICTED

WITHIN IL Report No. PA-142aONE WEEK

This report is for official use only by the Bank Group and specifically authorized organizationsor persons. It may not be published, quoted or cited without Bank Group authorization. TheBank Group does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the report.

INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMET

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION

APPRAISAL OF

AN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

THE GAMBIA

August 8, 1972

Agriculture Projects Department

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CURRENCY EQUIVALENT

Currency Unit a Gambian DalasiDI - US$0.52US$1 a D 1.92

WEIGHTS AND MEASURES

1 acre (ac) - 0.45 hectares (ha)1 mile e 1.61 kilometer (kn)1 square mile - 640 acres - 259 ha1 ton - 2,240 pounds (lb.) - 1.093 kilograms (kg)1 cusec m 1 cubic foot per second

ABBREVIATIONS

cif - Cost, insurance and freightfob - Free on boardGPMB - Gambia Produce Marketing BoardLEA Licensed Buying AgentMANR - Ministry of Agriculture and Natural ResourcesUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeMID MacCarthy Island DivisionMDW - Ministry of WorksODA United Kingdom's Overseas Development

AdministrationPHU 5 Project Management UnitPMWA - Bank's Permanent Mission in West AfricaU. K. - United Kingdom

CONVERSION RATIOS

Paddy to Milled Rice = 66%Unshelled to Shelled Groundnuts - 70%

FISCAL YEAR

July 1 - June 30

THE GAMBIA

APPRAISAL OF ANAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page No.

SUMKARY .. i -ii

I. INTRODUCTION .. 1

II. BACKGROUND ................................................ 1

A. General .............................................. 1B. Agricultural Sector .................................. 2C. Agricultural Strategy ................................ 5

III. THE PROJECT AREA .. 6

IV. THE PROJECT ............................................... 8

A. Project Description .................................. 8B. Detailed Features .................................... 9

V. COST ESTIMATES AND FINANCIAL ARRANGEMENTS ................. 13

A. Project Costs ........................................ 13B. Proposed Financing ................................... 15C. Procurement .......................................... 16D. Disbursement ......................................... 16E. Accounts and Audit ................................... 16

VI. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT ............................... 17

A. General .............................................. 17B. Staffing ............................................. 17C. Pump Irrigation ...................................... 18D. Preparation of an Integrated Agricultural Development

Project for MID .................................... 19

VII. YIELDS, PRODUCTION, MARKETS, PRICES AND FINANCIAL RESULTS. 19

A. Yields and Production ................................ 19B. Markets and Prices ................................... 20C. Farmer's Benefits .................................... 20D. Impact on Government Budget .......................... 21

This report is based on the findings of an IDA mission composed of Messrs.A. Storrar, A. Cole and A. Duncan (PMWA) which visited The Gambia inFebruary 1972.

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Page No.

VIII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION ................................ 21

A. Pump Irrigation ...................................... 21B. Preparation of an Integrated Development Project for

MID ................................................ 22

IX. RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................... 22

ANNEXES

1. The Cooperative Societies

2. Gambia Produce Marketing BoardTable 1 - Increase in net worth of GPMBTable 2 - Profit and Loss Account GMPBTable 3 - GPMB Produce Purchases and Sales

3. Agriculture and Land Tenure in the Project Area

4. Hydrological and Topographical Studies of the Gambia River Basin

5. Land Resource Development Project Study

6. Irrigation and Pumping Requirements

7. Draft Terms of Reference for Consultants

8. Project CostsTable 1 - Summary of Project CostsTable 2 - Rice Component - AdministrationTable 3 - Rice Component - On-farm CostsTable 4 - Studies on SwampsTable 5 - Agricultural Experiments

9. IDA Credit Disbursements

10. Farmer BenefitsTable 1 - Labor Requirements per acreTable 2 - Farm PlansTable 3 - 1 Acre Budget for Irrigated RiceTable 4 - Profit Per AcreTable 5 - Economic Value of PaddyTable 6 - Economic Value of GroundnutsTable 7 - Cash Flow for Project Farm Plan

11. Table 1 - Impact on Government BudgetTable 2 - Farm Credit Disbursements & Repayments

12. Economic Rate of Return CalculationsTable - Economic Rate of Return

MAPS

1. The Gambia2. The MacCarthy Island Division of The Gambia

THE GAMBIA

APPRAISAL OF ANAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

i. This report appraises an agricultural development project in the

MacCarthy Island Division (MID) of The Gambia for which an IDA Credit of

US$1.30 million is proposed. The principal objectives of the project

are twofold; to reduce The Gambia's present substantial rice imports by

increasing local ptoduction; and to prepare an integrated agricultural develop-

ment project based on ongoing and new studies, and on improved agricultural

experimentation. This would be the first agricultural project financed by

the Bank group in The Gambia.

ii. The project would be carried out in the period 1972 - 1975 andwould involve:

(a) developing 3,000 acres of land in MID for doublecropping rice under pump irrigation, using existingsuccessful techniques; selecting suitable land and providingsecurity of tenure to about 3,000 participants; formingmanaged cooperatives and providing credit for irrigationequipment as well as seed and fertilizer for the first crop;

training and strengthening field staff; and constructingstaff housing and offices.

(b) preparing an integrated agricultural development project

for MID by the end of 1974. The future project would bebased on a study of the utilization of swamp areas for

intensive rice production and subsequent development ofpilot flood control works; a transport study includingroad designs and cost estimates for a feeder road system;and experimental work on rainfed crops, swamp rice and

alternative crops for the present irrigated rice schemes.

iii. Project costs are estimated at US$1.48 million. Principal components

are on farm investments US$0.33 million; vehicles, equipment and civil works

US$0.20 million; staff and services US$0.42 million; consultants US$0.12

million; training US$0.09 million; and contingencies US$0.32 million. The

foreign exchange component is US$0.81 million. The proposed credit of US$1.30

million would finance 88% of project costs; the balance would be met from

Government budgetary allocations. Not included in project costs is the sub-

stantial amount of labor provided by farmers to clear and level the land

and to tend the crops; at the current wage rate, this is valued at US$0.74

million during the development period. Project farmers would also purchaseseasonal inputs valued at US$0.21.

iv. The project would be managed by a Project Management Unit (PMU)within the Department of Agriculture. The PMU would be advised by

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a committee, made up of government representatives and the managing directorof The Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GPMB), under the chairmanship of theSecretary for Development. Ten supervisors from the Republic of China,presently employed on the successful ongoing project, would be made availablefor in-service training of Gambian project field staff. GPMB would supplyfarmers' seasonal inputs in kind, purchase the paddy and own and run therice milling operations. Credit would be made available through cooperativesmanaged by PMU and the interest rate (10%) on farmers' loans would be unsub-sidised.

v. International competitive bidding would be employed to procurepumps, vehicles, equipment, (US$0.16 million). The small civil works program(US$0.16 million) would be carried out by force account, and consultantservices (US$0.12 million) would be obtained under the Bank group's normalprocedures.

Vi. Project-induced rice production would rise to 5,000 tons of milledrice by project year 4 (1976) and would substantially reduce The Gambia'sdependence on imported rice which amounted to 10,000 tons in 1971. Thedevelopment of pump irrigation would provide fuller employment for 3,000participating families and would increase their annual income from US$270 toUS$340. The economic return on the project is calculated at 30%.

vii. The Gambia's agriculture is poorly developed and is traditionallydependent on rainfed crops grown by hand under shifting cultivation.Groundnuts are the main cash crop and account for about 70% of agriculture'scontribution to GDP. Rice, sorghum, and millet are the main subsistencecrops. Groundnut marketing is efficient, but other services to agriculture,including extension and credit are restricted. Agriculture in MID, as inthe rest of The Gambia, is dominated by groundnuts, but MID has reasonablepotential for rainfed and irrigated crops. Rural incomes are low, aboutUS$45 per capita, and cash earnings are sensitive to fluctuations of theworld market price. The project's pre-investment activities, together withongoing resource studies, would enable Government to prepare detailed plansby the end of 1974 to further develop MID's agricultural potential.

viii. The project is suitable for an IDA Credit of US$1.30 million tothe Republic of The Gambia.

THE GAMBIA

APPRAISAL OF ANAGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

I. INTRODUCTION

1.01 The Government of The Gambia has asked IDA to help finance anirrigated rice project in its MacCarthy Island Administrative Division (MID).Water for irrigation would be pumped from the Gambia River. A PMWA 1/mission identified the project in February 1969, and the FAO/IBRD CooperativeProgram completed project preparation for Government in July 1971.

1.02 The project proposed by the preparation mission included developing6,500 acres of irrigated rice over four years at a cost of US$3.7 million.It was intended that The Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GPMB) would beresponsible for field operations and that the Ministry of Agriculture andNatural Resources (MANR) would play no part in direct project operations.

1.03 During appraisal in 1972, a number of changes were made in agreementwith Government. These changes took account of Government's restricted finan-cial resources; MANR's ability to implement projects on a limited scale; themaximum use of existing facilities and services in the project, as well ason-going bilateral and UNDP technical assistance. The revised project, whichis the subject of this report, is estimated to cost US$1.63 million. Itsprincipal features would be developing 3,000 acres of irrigated land, assistingfarmers to grow rice on this land, as well as carrying out studies and experimentsto allow preparation of an integrated agricultural development project in theMID. The project would be carried out over three years and would be manag-ed by MANR as it is the appropriate Government agency responsible for agricul-tural extension and planning. The project would be the Bank Group's firstagricultural lending operation in The Gambia.

1.04 This report is based on the findings of an IDA appraisal missioncomposed of Messrs. A. Storrar, A. Cole, and A. Duncan (PMWA), which visitedThe Gambia in February 1972.

II. BACKGROUND

A. General

2.01 The Gambia is a small country on the West African Coast, with aland area of only 4,000 square miles. It consists of a 20 to 30 mile widestrip of land, 240 miles long, straddling the Gambia River. Except for itsshort coastline, The Gambia is surrounded by Senegal (Map).

1/ Bank's Permanent Mission in West Africa.

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2.02 Population totals about 375,000, and is estimated to be growingat about 2% per year. GDP, which is growing annually at between 2 and 3%,was US$44.5 million or US$120 per capita in 1970/71. Agriculture accountsfor about 56% of GDP, trade and tourism 19%. Agriculture provides employ-ment for about 85% of the population, and the average per capita income ofrural Gamibians is estimated at about US$45 (cash plus subsistence).

2.03 Groundnuts, and groundnut oil and cake are The Gambia's main exports(95%); textiles and foodstuffs the main imports (55%). Rice comprised 8%of imports over the period 1968-1971, with an average annual value of US$1.6million. Foreign trade deficits average about 20% of the value of importsand were US$4.0 million in 1970/1971. These deficits are offset in thebalance of payments by foreign aid, mostly from Britain.

B. Agricultural Sector

2.04 Cash crop production is dominated by groundnuts, which account forabout 70% of agriculture's contribution to GDP. In the period 1965/66 to1970/71, the sales varied from 110,000 to 126,000 tons of unshelled nuts.Groundnut and groundnut-derived exports in 1970/71 were valued at aboutUS$15.0 million; annual exports of palm kernels, the only other significantcash crop, average about 2,000 tons and in 1970/71 were valued at US$0.4million. Some effort is being made to develop a lime juice export industry,but so far only 30 acres have been planted for comnercial production.

2.05 Subsistence crops include sorghum, millet, rice and cassava.Traditionally sorghum and millet were the main food crops, but over thelast twenty years rice has become more important. The latest estimatesindicate that about 30,000 tons of millet and sorghum and 40,000 tons ofpaddy are grown annually. Small quantities of cassava are grown to supplementcereal supplies.

2.06 Livestock are kept, more as a status symbol than for meat and milk,although some cattle are now being used as draught animals. Since animalhealth campaigns began in the 1950's, the cattle population has doubledand the national herd of cattle, sheep, and goats is now equivalent toabout 200,000 adult cattle units. The present annual offtake for the domesticcommercial market is about 13,000 head of cattle, mostly for the capitalcity, Bathurst; this market is growing slowly and consequently presentstocking rates are high. Government is studying ways to export meat toincrease offtake.

2.07 Rural services and infrastructure are almost non-existent, exceptfor road and river transport. The number of schools is increasing, butschool enrolment is low (15-20% of primary, and 5-10% of secondary school-age children). Electricity is not supplied to rural areas, and water isdrawn by hand either from village wells or rivers. Medical facilities

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are poor but the population is relatively healthy; bilharzia which isnormally prevalent in tropical riverine and swamp areas is not a majorhealth problem. Only one commercial bank operates an office outside Bathurstand, except for agricultural produce, trading is limited to a small range ofimported consumer goods, mostly textiles. Apart from hand tools, traders donot stock agricultural inputs, and the small amounts of fertilizer, seed, andfarm equipment that reach farmers are supplied through Government agencies.Rural areas have no commercial servicing facilities for vehicles and machi-nery, and only a few sales outlets for motor fuels and lubricants.

2.08 The national road network consists of about 500 miles of mainroad (180 miles paved) and 300 miles of minor roads. Good all-weather roadsrun along both sides of the river, but access from these to the hinterlandis restricted by a limited feeder road network. All river crossingsare by ferry, but the Governments of The Gambia and Senegal are planning abridge at Mansa Konko for a highway, which will link North and South Senegal.

2.09 The River is an important means of communication, and is navigablethroughout the year for about 240 miles eastwards as far as Basse (Map).About three-quarters of the groundnut crop is carried by boat, either toBathurst or to Kaur, 140 miles upstream from the sea; 40% of the crop isshipped directly overseas from Kaur, and the remainder from Bathurst afterprocessing into oil and cake. Government runs a weekly mail and passengerservice between Bathurst and Georgetown, about 200 miles upstream, andThe Gambia River Transport Company handles most of the groundnut rivertransport. Despite its cost advantage and all-year facility, the Riverhas lost most of its general cargo and passenger traffic to faster roadtransport.

2.10 The main institutions serving farmers are the MANR and theGPMB. MANR is responsible for agricultural policies and development plans,agricultural extension and research. It consists of a small headquartersadministration at Bathurst and three main technical departments -- Agricul-ture, Veterinary, and Cooperative.

2.11 MANR is handicapped by shortages of finance and trained technicalstaff. In 1970/71 the Ministry received US$850,000 or 7% of the Government'stotal budget. Technical departments lack trained staff, and are short ofagricultural graduates. This is particularly serious for the agriculturalextension service, which employs only three Gambian graduate officers andseven sub-professional officers; locally-trained technicians (agriculturalassistants) do most of the field work. Consequently, the service lackstechnical direction, particularly in the field. Agricultural research,though better supplied with trained staff (mainly expatriates), is verylimited. Research work is concentrated at Bathurst (the Yundum Station),but, because of different ecological conditions, the experimental results arenot applicable to much of the rest of the country. The Cooperative Depart-ment also suffers staff shortages, especially trained accountants andauditors.

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2.12 The national Cooperative Movement comprises The Gambia Coopera-tive Union (GCU), 49 primary marketing societies, and two thrift societies.Total membership is about 50,000, most of whom are farmers, and its mainactivity is groundnut marketing; in 1970/71 cooperatives handled about athird of the crop. Cooperatives are the only source of institutionalcredit, and mostly make short term cash loans that amount to about US$800,000annually. While Cooperatives were reasonably efficient until the late 1960's,in recent years bad management, increasing produce losses, and misuse offunds have led to loss of farmer confidence. The report of a GovernmentCommission set up to investigate the movement highlighted GCU and societymanagement weakness, and recommended that the audit unit of the CooperativeDepartment should be strengthened. Since the Commission reported, seniorofficials of GCU and the Cooperative Department have been replaced, andthe department's audit unit has been strengthened (Annex 1).

2.13 The Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GPMB) is a statutory organi-zation established in 1948 (as the Gambia Oilseeds Marketing Board), withresponsibility for marketing groundnuts and palm kernels. The scope ofGPMB activities was enlarged by Government in 1970 to allow it to handleall agricultural produce. While the full extent of GPMB responsibilitiesis yet to be defined by new legislation now in preparation, GPMPB hasalready taken over responsibility for rice importing, marketing, milling andpricing under the Rice Control Act of 1966.

2.14 GPMB purchases groundnuts and palm kernels through seven licensedbuying agents (LBArs), six private companies and the GCU. It pays itsLBA's a transport fee and an allowance to cover buying costs. Sub-agents,appointed by LBA's, operate about 70 buying stations where farmers deliverproduce. The LBA's ensure that their sub-agents pay the minimum producerpriceu set annually by GPMB and Government. GPMB exports all its palmkernels, and about 40% of its groundnut purchases as shelled nuts; theremaining groundnuts are delivered to Bathurst and sold to two private millersfor processing prior to export. Overseas sales and shipping are handled bythe London-based Gambia Oilseeds Company, which is wholly owned by GPMB.

2.15 Before 1971, a consortium of three private companies imported about10,000 tons of rice annually for Government, and arranged for distributionthrougl about 80 licensed traders. When GPMB took over responsibility forsuch imports it continued to use most of these traders, but it now plans tostreamltne distribution and improve enforcement of price controls by reducingthe number of licensed distributors.

2.16 Marketing of locally-grown paddy was not organized before the1971/72 harvest season when, with the prospect of increased domestic ricesupplies, ! 3PMB undertook to purchase and mill locally-grown paddy. GPMBhas taken over 600 tons of silo storage and a 2,500 ton/annum mill at Sapu,it is also installing a new 5,000 ton a year mill at Kuntaur (Map).

2.17 GPMB is well managed and operates efficiently. Operating profitsaverage-1 US$3.2 million for the three years ending 1970/71; reserves, together

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with the surplus for 1970/71, total about US$11.0 million. Annex 2 givesfurther details of GPMB 's operations and financial position.

C. Agricultural Strategy

2.18 As vet, The Gambia has no known commercially exploitable minerals,and the only sectors of the economy with development potential at presentare agriculture and tourism. Although tourism is growing rapidly, itsimpact on the economy is limited to the coastal district, and seasonallylimited to the seven-month dry season. Consequently, the agriculturalsector remains the main vehicle to provide employment and income for mostGambians.

2.19 Past Governments have concentrated on increasing groundnut exports,and over the last 20 years the marketed crop has risen from 60,000 to 110,000tons a year. This increase has come mainly from improveu marketingefficiency and prices; these measures encouraged additional cultivation inThe Gambia and the movement of produce into the country from the borderareas of Senegal. Agricultural extension and research have had only a limitedimpact on yields, which remain low at about 1,000 lb/acre.

2.20 In recent years Government has tried to help farmers increase theproduction of food crops; it has encouraged ox plowing and the use ofimproved seed with some success; but its promotion of subsidized tractorplowing for swamp rice and fertilizer for groundnuts has had poor results.These programs lacked the sound planning, finance, and experienced supervisionnecessary to have an impact on productivity. One recent project has beensuccessful; in 1966, Government obtained technical assistance from theRepublic of China to develop a project of irrigated rice cultivation (para3.08 and Annex 3).

2.21 More recently, the urgency to develop agriculture has increased.The United Kingdom's support of the Government's recurrent budget has beenphased out; and although the UK continues to provide assistance for development,continuation of such assistance cannot be guaranteed. The Gambia needs moreagricultural earnings to provide a stronger revenue base to meet Government'sincreasing recurrent expenditures and for investment in development. TheGambia also requires more agricultural output to earn and save foreign exchangeif it is to achieve a favorable trade balance.

2.22 The main objective of the Government's present agricultural policyis to increase agricultural production and efficiency, and to diversifyoutput. In particular, Government intends to replace rice imports withlocal rice, to increase yields of traditional cash and subsistence crops, andto introduce new cash crops. In pursuit of these objectives MANR is carryingout field experiments on dry land crops including groundnuts, sorghum, millet,maize and cotton; and on irrigated crops including rice, vegetables, andcitrus. It is also strengthening and integrating the work of technical

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services and institutions supporting agriculture, particularly extensionand research.

2.23 Since adequately trained and experienced Gambian staff are notreadily available to carry out its plans, Government is obtaining technicalassistance for this purpose. The Republic of China is presently providing30 rice specialists and technicians, and the UK about 10 research andextension specialists. In addition, UNDP and the UK are undertaking studiesof The Gambia's natural resources (Annexes 4 and 5). These studies shouldprovide the information needed for sound national agricultural planning,as well as for the preparation of development projects. The UK studyhas concentrated initially on the MID and is directed towards selectingareas suitable for rice and cash crops and exploring ways of improvingtraditional farming systems. The main study findings for MID will beavailable by the middle of 1973.

III. THE PROJECT AREA

3.01 The project area comprises the MacCarthy Island Division -- MID --(Map), which extends to about 1,100 square miles or a quarter of the total areaof The Gambia. The western boundary of MID is about 100 miles from Bathurstand the division extends eastwards for about 100 miles along both banks ofthe River. Population of the project area is about 80,000 and of Georgetown,the administrative headquarters, about 2,000.

3.02 Climate. About 90% of rainfall, which averages 40 inches per year,falls in the five months of June through October. Rainfall incidence is veryvariable, especially in September and October when an assured rainfall iscritical for satisfactory yields in the case of most rainfed crops. Meanmaximum temperatures range from about 90'F in August/September to 104°Fin March/April, and the mean minimum from 76'F in December to 87°F inApril (Annex 3). Although rainfed crops can be grown only in the period Junethrough October, the climate is suitable for year-round cropping underirrigation.

3.03 Topographyis determined by the River; about 20% of the area isflats and swamps along the river banks; 40% is a transitional zone, theso-called lower and upper benches that rise between the flats and the uplandplateaus. The latter comprise the remaining 40% of the land area, but theirmaximum elevation does not exceed 40 ft. above sea level. On the easternboundary of MID the River cuts through upland plateaus and its banks are30-40 ft high, but in most of MID below Bansang (see map), the banks areonly about 6 ft high.

3.04 Soils in the project area are variable. The upland plateau soils,which are sandy, well drained and often contain lateritic gravel, areinfertile and unsuitable for intensive agriculture. The upper and lowerbench scils are hydromorphic and sandy; and though more fertile than theuplands, are low in plant nutrients. Alluvial river flat and swamp soils are

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loamy and heavy clays; they are fertile and suitable for intensive agricultureand irrigation.

3.05 The Gambia River is tidal for about 180 miles from its mouth,including 80 miles in MID. Its catchment area is 30,000 square miles, ofwhich 90% is outside The Gambia in Senegal and Guinea. A UNDP financed studyto plan water management for the whole River basin began in 1971 and will becompleted in 1974 (Annex 4). It involves collecting hydrological and topographi-cal information over the length of the river; training local personnel indata collection; and preliminary studies of storage dam sites in Senegalto regulate the River flow. Since The Gambia, Senegal, and Guinea have noagreement on water rights, The Gambia Government has forwarded to the governmentsof Senegal and Guinea notes informing them of the development of the proDosedproject.

3.06 River flows are recorded at Goulomba (Senegal), about 70 miles eastof MID. Records show an average flow of about 1,000 cusecs 1/ at the beginningof the dry season, declining to about 350 cusecs by the end of the dry season.Even at its lowest flow, the river would more than meet present irrigationrequirements of the MID, as well as the additional irrigation proposed inthis project, a total of 100 cusecs. The river flow is supplemented belowGoulomba by groundwater supplies. There are no known development plans forthe river basin, which would adversely affect the proposed project during itseconomic life, but the use of large quantities of river water for irrigationin the future will nonetheless require careful planning, and cooperation ofthe three Governments. The ongoing UNDP study should provide the data neededfor this purpose (para 2.23 and Annex 4).

3.07 Agriculture in MID, as in the whole of The Gambia, is dominated bygroundnuts, which are grown on the uplands and benches; the marketed cropis about 30,000 tons per year (30% of the country's total production).MID also produces about 25% of The Gambia's rice, mostly on river flats andswamps, but increasingly under pump irrigation on the river flats aboveflood level (para 3.08). Groundnuts are grown under shifting cultivationin rotation with food crops, mainly millet and sorghum; the land is croppedfor two to three years and then allowed to revert to bush fallow for at leastthree years. Most cultivation is by hand.

3.08 The Republic of China rice project started in 1966 and, of 2,500acres now under cultivation, 1,700 acres are in MID. The project headquartersis at Yori-Beri-Kunda in MID, where the Chinese team carry out experimentsand train Gambian agricultural assistants and field demonstrators. TheRepublic of China provides agronomists, engineers, extension workers,motorized pumps and power tillers to participants free of charge; and forsubsequent crops participants pay the cost of fertilizers, fuels and pumpoperators. Informal farmers' associations have been established in each areaof development to settle local problems and to provide a channel for distri-buting seasonal inputs. Paddy yields average about 4,300 lb/acre/crop, and

1/ One cusec represents a flow of one cubic foot (6-1/4 gallons) per second.

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two crops are obtained annually; these compare with yields of about 900

lb/acre for one crop of paddy grown under the traditional system in the swamps.

3.09 Land distribution and tenure are governed by customary law. The

land in each district is vested in the district council composed of the

district and village chiefs. Each village has recognized boundaries and

within these boundaries land is held by family groups (compounds) who are

descendants of the original settlers of the area. Within compounds, land

is distributed to adult males, but individual rights to land exist only as

long as the land is cultivated. The laws of The Gambia also provide for

communal land to be leased to individuals with the agreement of village and

local authorities (Annex 3, paras 24 to 26).

IV. THE PROJECT

A. PROJECT DESCRIPTION

4.01 The aims of the project would be twofold; to reduce The Gambia's

present substantial rice imports by increasing the local production of pump

irrigated rice; and to prepare an integrated agricultural development

project based on ongoing and additional studies, and on the results ofimproved agricultural experimentation.

4.02 The MANR would carry out project development with a Project

IManagement Unit (PMU) which would include a cadre of experienced field

officers provided under a Republic of China technical assistance program

(para 6.04). The project would involve the following:

(a) Pump irrigation - Developing over three years, about 3,000acres of land in MID for double cropping rice underirrigation. Suitable land, which is readily available,

would be selected and alloted with security of tenure toqualified participants. The land would be developed mainlyby hand labor provided by participants, and credit would beprovided for irrigation equipment as well as the seed and

fertilizer needed for the first crop. Extension staffwould be trained and strengthened and suitable staffhousing constructed.

(b) Preparation of an integrated agricultural developmentproject - Carrying out the following feasibility studiesand research, precedent to the preparation of an integrated

agricultural development project in MID, by the end of 1974:

(i) identification of areas suitable for swamp riceproduction in MID, ground survey of selected swamps,design of flood control works and related costs

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estimates, and the implementation of such works inone or two swamps to test the proposals in practice;

(ii) improvement of agricultural experimental facilities atSapu and research on rainfed crops, swamp rice, and alternativecrops for cultivation under irrigation; and

(iii) preparing designs and cost estimates for a feederroad system in MID.

B. Detailed Features

Pump Irrigation

4.03 Phasing - The project would develop and bring into cultivationabout 3,000 acres of irrigated land at a rate of about 1,000 acres a year.This represents a feasible increase over the rate of development achieved bythe ongoing pump schemes which have established 2,500 acres of irrigatedrice over five years, culminating with 750 acres developed in 1971.

4.04 Project field headquarters would be at the MANR Sapu agriculturalstation which at present is under utilized. Existing facilities at Sapuinclude a well equipped mechanical workshop and garage space which servesGovernment's tractor hire pool of 26 tractors; about 150,000 cubic feet ofgeneral stores; a 2,500 ton per year rice mill and 600 tons of silo storage;office space and staff housing; a rice seed multiplication farm and about50 acres of land suitable for experimentation on rainfed and irrigated crops.Adequate labor housing and storage space are available for the project.Under the project, 16 new houses would be built mainly for project fieldstaff, and existing office space would be enlarged; additional vehicles,survey and office equipment would be purchased.

4.05 Selection of areas and land tenure arrangements - Project staffwould select suitable sites for development in units of not less than 20 ac.Sites within about 20 miles of Sapu would be selected and developed first. Allunits would be adjacent to the Gambia River or its tributaries and aboveflood level; each unit would be within the boundaries of a village, and thevillage authority's agreement would be sought to set the land aside for theproject under customary law (Annex 3, paras 24 to 26). A rice growing coopera-tive would be formed and would obtain a 20-year lease for the land from thevillage and local administration authorities. Each cooperative member woulddevelop and cultivate about one acre of land. No difficulty is anticipatedin obtaining suitable land or participants. The proposed activities wouldnot adversely affect the ecological balance in the area.

4.06 Land development - The successful techniques used by the Chinesemission (Annex 3) would be followed. The PMU would survey the area to beirrigated, draw up necessary plans and mark out these plans on the ground.

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Under supervision and with hand equipment supplied by the PMU, participantswould clear and level land and construct bunds. Prior to planting the firstcrop, and using equipment from the machinery pool at Sapu, the land wouldbe deep plowed and finally levelled.

4.07 Pumping - Each 20-acre scheme would be irrigated by a 5" centri-fugal pump driven by a 7 hp air cooled or water cooled diesel motor. Thepump unit would discharge 30 litres per second (108 m3/hour), sufficient forirrigating 20 acres (Annex 6). Based on 11 hours of operation per day,pumping would be required for 100 days in the dry season and for about halfthis time in the wet season; this is well within the capacity of the unit.The pumps would be purchased by PMU and installed on concrete platformsconstructed by participants under close supervision. PMU would hold inSapu spare engines (10% of total purchases) as reserves for major breakdowns,as well as spare parts required for normal servicing.

4.08 Crop development - The basic agricultural techniques developedunder the ongoing pump schemes would be followed (Annex 3). ImportedIndica rice varieties such as Taichung 1 and Taichung 2 would be used;these are now being multiplied for seed at Sapu. Participants would raiseseedlings in nurseries and transplant them when about three weeks old. Twocrops would be grown each year, one from January to May and the other fromJuly to November. Each crop would receive about 440 lb/acre of compoundfertilizer (equivalent to 110 lb of nitrogen and 44 lb of phosporous).The fertilizer would be applied by hand and divided into three applications;the first application would be ten days after planting and subsequentlyat two week intervals, immediately after weeding. Following the secondweeding, no further labor would be required until harvest when the cropwould be cut by sickle and stacked on the edge of each field to dry forabout one month; thereafter the crop would be mechanically threshed andbagged ready for dispatch. The only mechanical aids provided under theproject would be crop sprayers and pedal-operated threshers. Power tillersfor land preparation have been provided under the present scheme, but thecontinuation of this policy was deemed to be unwise because of high costand problems of maintenance; also there is adequate labor available tocarry out the cultivation operations by hand.

4.09 Seasonal inputs - The PMU would make improved rice seed availableto farmers. GPMB would be responsible for supplying fuel and fertilizersfrom its depot at Sapu and PMU would arrange delivery to the cooperatives.Government now subsidizes fertilizers, but it is reviewing this policy andintends to withdraw the subsidy. The present cost of compound fertilizerdelivered to the project area is about D 220 per ton and this is sold tofarmers at D 90 per ton. By reorganizing shipping and internal handlingmethods the cost could be lowered to D 170 per ton in the project area; atthis price the use of fertilizer by farmers is economic. Assurances wereobtained during negotiations that fertilizer supplied to project farmerswould be unsubsidized.

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4.10 Training - The Director of Agriculture would select two Gambianswho would receive overseas training fellowships in irrigation during the firsttwo project years; they would be appointed to the project as agriculturalsuperintendents on the satisfactory completion of their training. TheDirector of Agriculture would also select about 30 suitably qualified candi-dates for overseas training in general agriculture; the traJnees would attenda 2-year certificate or diploma course at appropriate educational institu-tions, particularly in Nigeria, Ghana and Sierra Leone. The deputy projectmanager would select prolect staff for in-service training courses andtrainees voula be appointed as demonstrators on the satisfactory completionof their courses.

Preparation of an Integrated Agricultural Development Project

4.11 Government has decided to broaden its approach to agriculturaldevelopment and intends to prepare an integrated development project forMID. Studies by UN.DP will provide data on river water flows (Annex 4) andthose by ODA on so-ls, land use, agricultural systems, marketing and othersocio-economic aspects of rural life (Annex 5). Partly through the useof consultants and partly by improving operational facilities for existingMANR staff, additional informatiorn required for project preparation wouldbe obtained under this project as follows:

4.12 Swamp studies -- The riverine swamps, because of their fertilityand location, appear to be highly suitable for intensive rice cultivation;at present, the main constraint on their use is uncontrolled flooding.Rice yields are low (about 900 lb/ac) as fertilizers and improved seedcannot be usecr economically without flood control. Through the developmentof high yielding rice crops or. the swamps, which are not suited for othercrops, the existing irrigated areas could be released for alternative cropspresently imported into The Gambia. The British ODA team will completesoil and topographic surveys of the swamp areas by the middle of 1973,aided by aerial photography which has recently been completed. These surveyswould be followed up under the project through the preparation of detailedfeasibility studies for flood control. A suitably experienced irrigationengineer would be engaged during the first two years of the project. Typicalswamps would he selected and ground surveys made of these swamps. Plansfor flood control and the installation of irrigation equipment would be madeand costs estimated. Based on the information provided by the engineer andfrom results at the Sapu experimental station, PMU would assess whether itwould be physically and economically feasible to develop efficient riceproduction in swamp areas. If the assessment is positive, works would becarried out in one or two small swamps to demonstrate their practicability.Draft terms of reference for the irrigation engineer are at Annex 7.

4.13 Agricultural experimentation - The main agricultural researchstation at Yundum, near Bathurst, is quite well staffed and has reasonablefacilities, but the experimental program has been orientated to coastalconditions and has contributed little suitable information for MID.

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4.14 Under the project three areas on the Sapu station would

be developed and used for experimentation; for swamp rice under floodcontrolled conditions (20 acres); for alternative crops to rice under pumpirrigation (10 acres); and for rainfed crops (20 acres). A qualifiedagronomist responsible to the project manager would be appointed for this

work; he would develop the experimental areas in project year one and draw

up a four-year program to include:

(a) the introduction and testing of varieties of maize,sorghum, and millet;

(b) rainfed crop variety trials, particularly on maize and

groundnuts, in association with fertilizers and insecticides;

(c) high value alternative crops for irrigated rice, particularlyonions, tomatoes and limes; and

(d) rice variety and fertilizer trials under flood controlledswamp conditions.

4.15 Transport study - The appraisal mission was unable to recommendfinancing of the roads proposed in the original project because basic

economic and engineering data were lacking. Nevertheless, the feeder

road network and consequently access to main roads from cultivated areas

is limited; new crop evacuation roads will be essential to handle any increased

agricultural development anticipated under the integrated development project

planned for 1975.

4.16 During the second year of project implementation, a road engineer(four months) and a transport economist (two months) would be engaged tostudy the feeder road requirements of MID. Based on information suppliedby the ODA survey and by project management, they would prepare a roaddevelopment program suitable for the area after examining:

(a) estimates of goods and passenger traffic, present andfuture;

(b) proposed road alignments;

(c) availability and location of laterite;

(d) the relative economics of road and river transport between

the project and Bathurst.

The consultants, assisted by MDW staff, would then prepare road specifications,

related cost estimates, and suitable contract documents for construction.

Draft terms of reference for the transport study are set out at Annex 7.

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4.17 Preparation of an integrated agricultural development project -The project manager would collate the information from the various ongoingbnd proposed studies and would thereafter prepare an integrated agriculturaldevelopment project for MID. The project would be prepared in a form suitablefor international financing and would be ready at the end of 1974.

V. COST ESTIMATES AND FINANCIAL ARRANGENENTS

A. Project Costs

5.01 Over the three-year development period, project costs are estimatedat US$1.48 million, with a foreign exchange component of US$0.81 million,or 55% of total costs. Costs are detailed in Annex 8 and summarized inthe following table:

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Summary of Project Cost Estimates

Dalasies '000 US$'000Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total

Rice Component

On-farm costs 177.3 465.7 643.0 92.2 242.2 334.4Staff 403.5 71.0 474.5 209.8 36.9 246.7Vehicles &Equipment 4.4 40.1 44.5 2.3 20.9 23.2

Houses and Offices 93.6 62.4 156.0 48.7 32.4 81.1Services 23.0 17.3 40.3 12.0 9.0 21.0

Subtotal 701.8 656.5 1,358.3 365.0 341.4 706.4

Studies and Surveys

Consultants 2.0 237.0 239.0 1.0 123.2 124.2Civil Works 26.0 14.0 40.0 13.5 7.3 20.8Services 5.7 15.3 21.0 3.0 8.0 11.0Training Program 12.6 167.4 180.0 6.6 87.0 93.6

Subtotal 46.3 433.7 480.0 24.1 225.5 249.6AgriculturalExperiments

Staff 91.5 52.5 144.0 47.6 27.3 74.9Houses and Offices 62.4 41.6 104.0 32.4 21.6 54.0Vehicles, Equip-ment Materials 7.9 32.1 40.0 4.1 16.7 20.8

Services 52.3 52.3 104.6 27.2 27.2 54.4

Subtotal 214.1 178.5 392.6 111.3 92.8 204.1

Contingencies

Physical(Special)/ 135.0 135.0 270.0 70.2 70.2 140.4Physical 59.3 41.7 101.0 30.8 21.7 52.5Price 116.5 120.0 236.5 60.6 62.4 123.0

Subtotal 310.8 296.7 607.5 161.6 154.3 315.9

TOTAL PROJECTCOST 1,273.0 1,565.4 2,838.4 662.0 814.0 1,476.0

/1 Provision for field staff in case of termination of bilateral assistance(Annex 8, Table 2 and para 5.02).

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5.02 Project costs include a special contingency of US$140,000 tocover the cost of field superintendents in case the Republic of China'sbilateral assistance program is terminated. If this contingency is notrequired for this purpose, Government would agree with IDA a suitable usefor these funds under the project. Project costs also include aphysical contingency of 5%, and a price contingency of 5% compoundedannually. Estimates are based on up to date building costs; suppliers'quotations for materials and vehicles; Government salary scales; andconsultants' charges for studies similar to those that would be carried outunder this project. Project costs do not include import taxes, with theexception of fuel provided on credit to participants. The incremental familylabor required to develop the project is not included in costs as there areno alternative employment opportunities for project participants; at currentwage rates the value of this labor is estimated at US$0.16 million. Projectfarmers would also purchase seasonal inputs valued at US$0.21 million, whichare also excluded from project costs.

B. Proposed Financing

5.03 The project would be financed as follows:

Government IDA TotalUS$ 000s % US$ QOOs % US$ oOOs %

Farm loans 23.4 7 311.0 93 344.4 23Vehicles and equipment - - 44.0 100 44.0 3Civil works 10.9 7 145.0 93 155.9 11Staff 22.6 7 299.0 93 321.6 22Services 86.4 100 0 - 86.4 6Training 6.8 7 86.8 93 93.6 6Consultants - - 124.2 100 124.2 8Contingencies 25.9 290.0 315.9 21

176.0 12 1,300.0 88 1,476.0 100

5.04 A credit of US$1.3 million would be made to Government on standardIDA terms to meet 88% of total project costs. US$814,000 or 63% of thecredit would cover project foreign exchange costs; the balance of US$486,000(37% of the credit) would finance 74% of local currency costs. Theremaining 12% of project costs, totalling US$176,000, would be metfrom Government budgetary allocations. Assurances were obtained duringnegotiations that funds for the project unit (PMU) would be made availableon a quarterly basis in order to maintain balances sufficient to meetexpenditures expected in the following 3 months.

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C. Procurement

5.05 International competitive bidding would be used to procure pumps,vehicles, and equipment valued at US$161,000. Assurances to this effect wereobtained from Government during credit negotiations. GPMB would supplyfertilizers and sprays valued at US$50,000, which would be procured togetherwith Gambia's other fertilizer requirements according to competitive biddingprocedures that are acceptable to the Association. Civil works, house andoffice construction valued at US$156,000 would be carried out by PMU orMinistry of Works on force account. Consultant services totalling US$124,000would be obtained under the World Bank Group's normal procedures. TheGambia has some preferential tariffs for British Commonwealth countries, butthese would not influence project procurement as items procured by interna-tional competitive bidding under the project would not be liable to importtaxes.

D. Disbursement

5.06 Disbursement of the credit would be against 100% of the cif costof imported irrigation pumps, PMU vehicles and equipment, and of consultantservices (US$285,200); 93% of staff salaries and allowances (US$311,000)and of civil works (US$133,000); and 93% of loans issued to farmers otherthan irrigation pumps (US$194,000). Contingencies amounting to US$290,000would be unallocated. The estimated rate of disbursement of the proposedIDA credit is at Annex 9. Expenditure would be evidenced by contracts andcertified records of expenditure. Disbursements against farmers loans andstaff salaries would be made against a certificate of expenditure, the docu-mentation for which would not be submitted for review, but would be retainedby the borrower and available for inspection by the Association during thecourse of project supervision. Any savings would be subject to cancellation.

E. Accounts and Audit

5.07 The PMU would be responsible for maintaining project and farmerloan accounts. All accounts would be kept in accordance with establishedaccounting principles and with due regard to Government regulations andwould be audited by an auditor satisfactory to the Association. The presentgovernment regulations and audit system carried out by the Office of theAuditor General are acceptable to the Association. The audited accounts forPMU and for participating cooperative societies, together with copies ofthe auditor's report, would be submitted to IDA within four months of theclosing of each financial year. During negotiations, assurances to theseeffects were obtained from Government.

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VI. ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT

A. General

6.01 The Ministry of Agriculture would establish a project managementunit (PMU) within the Department of Agriculture headed by a project managerstationed in Bathurst (see para 6.02). He would be responsible for allproject operations and would coordinate project activities with GovernmentDepartments and Technical Assistance Agencies. To advise the projectmanager, Government would establish a committee comprising permanent secre-taries from relevant Ministries, and the Manager of GPMB, under the chairman-ship of the Development Secretary. Assurances were obtained during negotia-tions that the advisory committee would be set up with memberships and termsof reference mutually acceptable to Government and IDA. Project fieldheadquarters would be at Sapu, where a deputy manager would be responsiblefor daily project operations and for supervising ongoing extension activitiesof MANR in MID during the development period; a committee chaired by theCommissioner of MID, and including divisional government officers andrepresentatives of local farmers, would advise the deputy manager.

B. Staffing

6.02 The project manager would be a person qualified and experiencedin agricultural field work and planning. The deputy manager would be anexperienced Gambian agricultural officer. The project manager and hisdeputy, their terms of reference and conditions of service, would bemutually acceptable to Government and IDA; assurances to this effect wereobtained from Government during negotiations. It is also a condition ofeffectiveness that they will have been appointed.

6.03 Government would appoint a senior accountant, and an experiencedcooperative inspector and auditor, to the project unit at Sapu. The Republicof China would provide ten supervisors for rice irrigation under its technicalassistance program; however, project costs include finance for alternativestaff (para 5.02) in the unlikely event that the program is terminated.Agricultural assistants and rice demonstrators would be obtained partly fromexisting schemes and partly from new recruits for in-service training. TheDirector of Surveys would assign two locally-trained Gambian levellers tothe project, and would arrange for their supervision by a qualified surveyor.Field staff requirements during the development period would be as follows:

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Total

Chinese supervisors 5 5 - 10Agricultural assistants 10 - - 10Demonstrators 17 17 17 51Levellers 2 - - 2

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An assurance was obtained during credit negotiations that the Governmentwould appoint the staff to the project as scheduled above.

C. Pump Irrigation

6.04 Field Operations. Chinese supervisors and Gambian agriculturalassistants, working together, would oversee the agricultural demonstratorsand would surprvise participants levelling land and building bunds inaccordance with the survey plans. They would also instruct participantsin cultivating rice, and in the installation and maintenance of theirrigation pumps.

6.05 Cooperatives. A cooperative inspector, assigned to the projectby the Cooperative Department, would assist the agricultural assistants anddemonstrators in forming rice growing cooperatives; each cooperative wouldhave at least 20 members and would include all participants on a pumpingscheme site. Since cooperatives have suffered recently from poor manage-ment (para 2.12), under the Cooperative Amendment Act of 1968 the Ministerof Agriculture would appoint PMU staff members to cooperative managementcommittees to assist with management until the cooperatives prove competentto run their own affairs. The PMU staff would organize the work of cooperativesin the supply and payment of seasonal inputs, the operation of the pumps andthe delivery of the crop to GPMB. Cooperatives from their second year underthe project would also employ and pay for an agricultural demonstrator whowould perform. the duties of secretary of the cooperatives in his area; itwould be a condition for participating in the project that a cooperative hadagreed to employ a demonstrator selected by the project unit for this purpose.An auditor assigned to the project by the Cooperative Department of MANRwould audit cooperative accounts annually.

6.06 Credit. The Gambia does not have an established agriculturalcredit institution, but Government intends to set up a Commercial and Develop-ment Bank. However, since the credit required under the project would besmall (US$334,400) and the new Bank has not been established, PMU woulddisburse project credit. Loan repayments would be paid to central Governmentrevenues also through PMU.

6.57 Only one loan would be made under the project, which would includethe initial cost of pumps, equipment, and final levelling; and first plowing,fertilizers, and seed for the first crop (Annex 8, Table 3). Loans would bechannelled in kind through cooperatives and would be repaid over five yearsin ten equal installments, beginning with the second harvest. The loans wouldbear interest at 10%, the current on-lending rate of GCU to cooperativesocieties in The Gambia.

6.08 Under the terms of the loan agreements, participants wouldundertake to sell paddy to the GPMB, which would be authorized to deductloan repavments and transport costs from the proceeds of sales, and to

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pay these deductions to the PMU. It is a condition of effectivenessthat Government will have agreed with IDA the form of loan agreements.

D. Preparation of an Integrated AgriculturalDevelopment Project for MID

6.09 The project manager would be responsible for preparing theproject during the first two project years. He would be assisted by PMWAand consultants employed for the studies under this project.

6.10 Swamp Development Feasibility Study. Government would employ aqualified consultant irrigation engineer to undertake the study during thefirst two project years. He would be assisted by project survey staffand would be responsible to the project manager. During credit negotiationsassurances were obtained from Government that the engineer, his terms ofreference, and conditions of service would be mutually acceptable to Governmentand IDA.

6.11 Agricultural Experiments. Government would appoint a qualifiedagronomist, responsible to the deputy project manager, to carry out thecrop experimental program. Specialist research officers (rainfed andirrigated crops) at the Ministry's Yundum research station would assistthe agronomist to draw up and carry out a four-year research program.The agronomist and the research program would be mutually acceptable toGovernment and IDA; assurances to this effect were obtained from Governmentduring credit negotiations.

6.12 Transport Study. Government would obtain a qualified consultantroad engineer and a transport economist to undertake this study. Theywould be responsible to the project manager. During credit negotiationsassurances were obtained from Government that the consultants, their termsof reference, and conditions of service would be mutually acceptableto Government and IDA.

VI. YIELDS, PRODUCTION, MARKET, PRICESAND FINANCIAL RESULTS

A. Yields and Production

7.01 Experiments with fertilizer on irrigated rice in the projectarea have shown that paddy yields as high as 9,400 lb/acre can be obtainedfrom a single crop (Annex 3), and that 20 varieties yielded an average of7,000 lb/acre. Farm yields from the on-going scheme have averaged 4,400lb/acre in the wet season and 4,300 lb/acre in the dry season. Forthe project, an annual paddy yield of 7,000 lb/acre from two crops has

been assumed. The annual incremental production from the project wouldbe 7,800 tons of paddy, equivalent to about 5,000 tons of milled rice.

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B. Markets and Prices

7.02 All project paddy would be sold and consumed on the domesticmarket thereby helping to reduce imports of rice. Imports averaged 10,000tons per year in the period 1965/66 - 1970/71, aind without increaseddomestic output would increase by about 2-3% annually. The Bank's EconomicsDepartment's forecast of world prices, for rice of similar grade (42%brokens) during the next decade, is US$81.45/ton fob Rangoon; equivalentto US$104.47 per ton (D. 207) cif Bathurst. The wholesale price of suchimported rice after handling, transportation and storage costs are addedwould be D 217 (Annex 10, Table 1). With a 66% milling outturn of rice topaddy, a milling cost of D 13 per ton and a storage and handling costof about D 12 per ton, the import substitution value of paddy at farm gateis calculated to be D 118/ton (US$61) which is D 16/ton (US$9) below thepresent producer price (Annex 2). For economic analysis a price of US$61(D 118) has therefore been used. Since Government does not intend to supportdomestic paddy prices in future, farmer returns have also been calculated atthis import substitution price; at this value, US$9 per ton less thanpresent prices, returns are satisfactory to the farmer.

C. Farmers' Benefits

7.03 Irrigated rice cultivation is labor intensive and most participantsin the project would have either to reduce the area of swamp they now farm,or hire labor. There is no accurate information on project area farmingpatterns, however, observations and available data on crop labor require-ments indicate that the average farm family of six could cultivate about4 acres of groundnuts, sorghum, and millet, and 1.8 ac of swamp rice(traditional farm plan, Anex 10, Table 2). One acre of irrigated ricerequires about 170 man-days annually; and to accommodate the labor needsof this crop the family, participating in the project and employing nohired labor, would have to reduce its traditional activities. For thepurpose of this report, it is assumed that the average project participantwould retain the present area under groundnuts and give up about one acreof swamp rice (the project plan, Annex 10, Table 2).

7.04 Net farm family income (including US$10.0 per capita from annualsubsistence production of fish and animal products) from the traditionalplan is about US$270 or US$45 per capita. Net farm family income from theproject plan would be about US$340 or US$57 per capita, (Annex 10, Table 7),an increase of 26% over present incomes. Such increased returns are adequateto attract farmers to participate in the project as demonstrated by theongoing scheme (para 3.08). While the project would increase incomes substan-tially, beneficiaries would still have relatively low incomes compared withthe present per capita GDP of US$120.

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D. Impact of Project on Government Budget

7.05 During the 3-year project development and IDA credit disbursementperiod, Government would provide some D 380,000 (US$180,000) to meet costsnot covered by the IDA credit. Thereafter it would provide about D 60,000(US$30,000) annually to cover the recurrent costs of project administrationand extension services.

7.06 Currently project participants pay annual taxes at a rate ofD 12.50 per compound and, in addition, poll taxes on cattle of D 0.5 perhead. Participants are not liable for income tax and would not become so asa result of increased cash earnings induced by the project. Consequently,the project would not increase Government revenues from direct taxation(Annex 11). As the project would cause a reduction in rice imports, onwhich taxes are levied, there would be a small reduction (D 144,000 at fulldevelopment) in Government revenues. This could be offset, for example,by reduced fertilizer subsidies or imposing a compensatory tax on consumersof domestic rice. The effect of this project on Government's financialsituation indicates that the budget implications of future development projectsinvolving large scale import substitution should be examined carefully.Therefore the project manager would review the issue with Governmentofficials, and would include proposals for the collection of Governmentrevenue for the Integrated Agricultural Development Project that would beprepared under this project (para 4.11) should this be necessary.

VIII. BENEFITS AND JUSTIFICATION

A. Pump Irrigation

8.01 The principal benefit of the project would be the incrementalproduction of about 5,000 tons of milled rice annually at full development,as from project year 5. Participating farm families would be more fullyemployed in the dry season when alternative employment is virtually non-existent. It is estimated that 3,000 families will each be able to workabout 400 days per year, compared with a maximum of about 357 days atpresent. Consequently, the incomes of a poor section of the populationwould be increased by about 27% above present levels (para 7.04).

8.02 The economic rate of return of the project is about 30%. Detailsof the analysis are at Annex 12. Major assumptions include:

(a) a project life of 16 years, which is approximately thelife of the irrigation works and buildings; the projectcost stream includes the replacement of pumps after7 years;

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(b) the rice yields, production and prices given inChapter VII; and

(c) an opportunity cost of zero for the incremental familylabor required for the project; this incremental laborwould be needed only in the dry season when alternativeemployment opportunities are virtually nonexistent.

8.03 Sensitivity Analysis. The project is particularly sensitive tothe shadow price used for incremental family labor. If incremental familylabor requirements were costed at the official wage rate of D 1.4/mandayfor unskilled labor, the rate of return would be 13%. The project is alsosensitive to any decline in benefits, which might occur through declines inyields or in prices, or a combination of both; a 10% decline would reducethe rate of return from 30% to 19%. The return is somewhat less sensitiveto increases in costs, a 10% increase resulting in a fall in the rate ofreturn to about 22%. A combination of a 10% increase in costs, and a 10%decline in benefits would reduce the return to about 11%; however, costsand yields used in the analysis are considered conservative and such acombination of adverse factors is highly improbable.

8.04 The rate of return has been tested also for the impact of a year'sdelay in the accrual of benefits without a commensurate delay in projectexpenditures; this would reduce the rate of return to about 19%.

B. Preparation of an Integrated Agricultural Projectfor the MacCarthy Island Division

8.05 The project's preinvestment activities, together with ongoingresource studies, would enable Government to prepare detailed plans formuch needed development in MID. These plans would include improvementsin rural services, institutions and infrastructure needed to improve landuse farming systems and cropping patterns; diversify output; increase percapita incomes; and reduce the sensitivity of incomes to changes in worldmarket prices for groundnuts. Without such improvements agriculture inMID will at best stagnate, and due to increasing population pressure andunfavorable terms of trades for the principal cash crop - groundnuts - percapita incomes may in fact decline.

IX. RECOMMENDATIONS

9.01 During negotiations assurances were obtained that:

(a) fertilizer supplied to project farmers would beunsubsidized (para 4.09);

(b) funds for PMU would be made availableon a quarterly basis, in order to maintain balances

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sufficient to meet expenditures expected in thefollowing 3 months (para 5.04);

(c) international competitive bidding would be usedto procure pumps, vehicles and equipment (para 5.05);

(d) audited accounts for the project unit and participatingcooperatives, together with copies of the auditor'sreport, would be submitted to IDA within four months ofthe closing of each financial year (para 5.07);

(e) an advisory coamittee would be set vp with membershipsand terms of reference acceptable to Government and IDA(para 6.01);

(f) the project manager, and his deputy, their terms ofreference and conditions of service would be mutuallyacceptable to Government and IDA (para 6.02);

(g) Government would appoint the Gambian to the projectas scheduled in para 6.03;

(h) the engineer for swamp studies, his terms of reference,and conditions of service would be mutually acceptableto Government and IDA (para 6.10);

(i) the agronomist and the agricultural research programwould be mutually acceptable to Government and IDA(para 6.11); and

(j) the consultants for the transport study, their terms ofreference and conditions of service would be mutuallyacceptable to Government and IDA (para 6.12).

9.02 Conditions of effectiveness are that the:

(a) project director and his deputy will have been appointedand with terms of reference and conditions of servicemutually acceptable to Government and IDA (para 6.02);

(b) Government will have agrped with IDA the form of loanagreements for cooperative societies (para 6.08).

9.03 The project is suitable for an IDA credit of US$1.3 million.

August 3, 1972

ANNEX 1Page 1

TiE GAMBIA

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMIENT PROJECT

The Cooperative Societies

1. The Cooperative Movement is controlled by the 1965 CooperativeSocieties Act, and the Amendment Act of 1968. There is one CooperativeUnion, The Gambia Cooperative Union, Ltd. (GCU) and 51 primary marketingsocieties, of which 11 are in McCarthy Island Division (MID). The totalmembershiip of cooperative societies is about 50,000.

2. The Cooperative Department of the Ministry of Agriculture isresponsible for enforcing the law. It has a small headquarters staff,including tiue Registrar and his assistant, and an audit unit with twoexpatriate auditors and four Gambian trainees. Field staff include 4 assis-tant registrars and 27 inspectors.

3. Groundnut marketing is the main cooperative activity. In 1970/71cooperatives delivered 32,000 tons of groundnuts to GPYIB, accounting forabout 23%Z of the total crop. The GCU is a licensed buying agent (LBA) forthe Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GP1IB) and the societies are appointedsub-agents. The LBA allowance is divided equally between GCU and societies.

4. The cooperative movement is the only source of farmer credit.!lost loans are short-term cash credits for members' subsistence, amountingto about D 1.5 million annually. Cooperative societies have also issued atotal of about D 300,000 in loans for fertilizers, tractor ploughing, boatsand trucks. Loan funds and crop finance are provided to the GCU by theCentral Bank and guaranteed by Government. The Central Bank's currentinterest rate is 6%, and funds are provided to GCU at 7%; GCU on-lends fundsto individual societies at 10%.

5. The repayment record for subsistence loans was good, until thelate 1960's, wlhen overdue debts of cooperative societies to GCU were about 13%of annual lending, and overdue repayments of members to their societies about20% of annual lending. The repayment position of other cooperative loans wasvery poor and overdue debts amounted to about 50%.

6. The movement operated efficiently and grew rapidly during the early1960's. By 1970, however, management at the Union and society level hadweakened and the Cooperative Department was not enforcing the cooperative law.Although the GCU received a large income from groundnut marketing, it lostmoney on its banking and lending activities. Trading profits were mismanagedand sometimes used illegally; funds were misused at the society level, loanswere made to non-members often received low and delayed payments for theirproduce. Consequently, both farmers and Government lost confidence in themovement and, in 1970, Government set up a commission of enquiry into thecooperative movement. The Commission's report highlighted management weakness

ANNEX 1Page 2

in the Cooperative Department, the GCU and in individual societies; it notedthat society accounts were not audited annually as required by law, and thatthe GCU accounts were not audited in time for scrutiny at annual meetings.Since the Commission reported, senior staff of the Cooperative Departmentand the GCU have been replaced, the audit unit has been strengthened, and theGCU has relinquished its banking activities. Lending throughout the movementhas been brought under tighter control; both cooperative societies and membersdefaulting on credit repayments are now refused new loans. Farmers areregaining confidence in the movement under new leadership, and former weaknessand abuses are gradually being corrected.

June 21, 1972

ANNEX 2Page 1

THE GAMBIA

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

Gambia Produce Marketing Board

1. A Gambia Oilseeds Marketing Board (GOMB) was established in 1966

under the act were:

(a) to fix prices to be paid to producers of oilseeds, subject

to ministerial approval;

(b) to purchase and dispose of oilseeds;

(c) to appoint licensed buying agents (LBAs);

(d) to fix price to be paid to LBAs: and

(e) with the approval of the Minister, to assist development

of the oilseed industry for the benefit of producers.

2. In November 1970 the scope of the GOMB's activities was enlarged

by thle Cabinet to allow it to handle other agricultural produce, although

the full extent of its new role will be defined by legislation now under

preparation. Immediate results of the 1970 Cabinet decision are that GOMB

has talcen on responsibility for importing, milling, and marketing rice, and

is now known as the Gambia Produce Marketing Board (GPMB.).

3. In 1971, GPEB purchased 113,000 tons of groundnuts valued at D 19.2

million, and sold 78,000 tons of decorticated and undecorticated nuts valued

at D 38.3 million; purchases and sales of palm kernels amounted to about

2,000 tons. GPMB purchases oilseeds tihrough 7 LBAs (six private companies,and Thie Gambia Cooperative Union); LB,As appoint and finance sub-agents, whto

purchase oilseeds for farmers. The LBAs main functions are to bulk the

farmers' produce and to deliver it to GPMB at Kaur and Bathurst; they receive

an allowance and transportation fee for this service. Payment to producers

and to LbAs for the 1971/72 buying season were:

Palm Kernels Groundnuts(Tons) (Tons)

Producer Price D 180.0 D 180.0Buying Agents Allowance D 27.0 D 13.99Sub Agents Allowance - D 17.14Est. Average TransportCost D 14.95 D 14.95

ANNEX 2Page 2

4. GPMB exports all palm kernels and about 40% of its groundnutpurchases for export groundnuts are decorticated at Kaur, and shipped toEurope as shelled nuts. The remaining groundnuts are delivered to Batlhurstand sold to two private milling companies for processing and export as oiland cattle cake. Overseas sales and shipping are handled by the London basedGambia Oilseeds Iarketing Company, which is a wholly owned GPMB subsidiary.

5. The Rice Control Act regulates and controls arrangements for riceimportation, marketing, and wholesale and retail prices. (Rice imports forthe last five years have averaged 10,000 tons). Before 1971, rice wasimported by a consortium of three private companies, and distributed throughabout 80 licensed distributors. When GPMB took over responsibility forimporting rice, it inherited most of the rice distributors from the conisor-tium, but it intends to reduce the number to streamline sales and distribu-tion arrangements. Only limited amounts of locally produced rice are marketedthrough GPMB because most of the present production is used for subsistenceor bartered in local markets. With the prospect of increased production,however, GPMB has arranged to purchase and mill locally grown paddy.

6. For the 1971/72 season, paddy is being purchased at Sapu whereGPMB has 600 tons of silo storage and a 2,500 ton/year rice mill; by February1972, GPMB had milled 240 tons of paddy at Sapu. Additional milling capacityof 5,000 ton/year is being installed at Kuntaur (MID) to mill paddy producedon the North bank of the river; this extra capacity will absorb thc increasedproduction resulting from this project. The Paddy must not have a moisturecontent above 12%, and foreign matter and damaged grain must be less than 2%.:it is purchased at D 134.40/ton and LABs receive an allowance of D 16.5/ton,plus a transport payment determined by the location of the buying stationbut not exceeding D 12.5/ton.

7. GPMB, which has a small headquarters staff, is well managed andoperates efficiently. At September 30, 1971, its assets were valued atD 22.7 million of which fixed assets amounted to D 3.0 million and therenAainder cash, short term bank deposits and well placed investments (seeTable 1). Trading profits for the year were D 9.7 million (Table 2).Details of produce turnover for the last three years are shown in Table 3.

June 21, 1972

ANNEX 2

THE GAP1BIA Table 1

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOP14NT PROJECT

GA BIA PRODUCE LARKIEMTIG BOARD

Statement Showing Increase in 1Net Wlorth of The Gambia Produce

M4arketing Board for the Year Ended 30th September 1971

1969/70 1970/71 Increase DecreaseD. D. D. D.

Assets

Fixed Assets 2,564,375 2,950,223 385,848Investments 1,233,690 1,233,690 - -Stocks 867,310 1,149,880 282,570 -Sunday Debtors andaccrued Char-ges 1,604,570 2,597,650 993,080 -

Short Term Depositswith Bankers 5,750,000 13,711,823 7,961,823 -

Cash at Banks andin Hand 947,560 1,106,039 158,039 -

D.12,967 5,5 n2,7fj9,305

Liabilities

Sundry Creditors andaccrued chargos 623,975 718,733 _ 94,758

General. Reserve 5,539,814o 5,359,84o _ -Price Stabilizat, cln

Reserve 6,983, 690 6 ?-3V'9013,0'2,203

1970/71 Profit 9,68'7,0l,2 9_687____!_912'L7,0 _ _ _ _ _~ 1 2 70 2~O~b ~ ~ 7 31, t5C'0 9 _/~Tz hi

Ilotes

(1) The i.nrrease in Fi.xed3 Asset;s rcnresent cxDenditure on storaje.

(2) Thiucr'sr:- e in Lt"ocks reprc,vt a lar-er than usual carry ovel,of Palm Kernels and Rice.

(3) The increase i.n DebLors is due on I'illers Accounts.

(4) The increase in Cas' and D.-posit Accounts reflect the profit onthe year's trading,

ANNEX 2

THE GAMBIA Table 2

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

GAMBIA PRODUCE MARKETING BOARD

Trading Profit for the Year Ended September 30, 1971

(per ton figures based on 113,230 tons of produce purchased)Actual

Producer Price D. 170.00 D. 19,249,100Buying Agents Allowance 13.77 1,559,177Trader's allowance 16.43 1,860,369Zonal freight 14.73 1,667,742Transit Handling 3.41 386,002Pest control - Produce Inspection 1.04 118,065Seednut improvement 0.76 _ 86,250

Basic Delivered Cost D. 220.14 D. 24,926,705

Crop Finance 0.49 55,897Crop Insurance 0.10 _ 10,950

Basic Instore Cost D. 220.73 D. 24,993,552

Milling Overheads - GPMB 6.17) 5.50 345,417Milling Overheads Allowed Millers 5.87) 277,381Bags: Sacks - GPMB 3.93) 5.46 220,845Bags: Sacks Allowed Millers 8.41) 397,406Office Overheads 1.48 168,040Workshop Overheads 0.37 42,106Membership African G/Nuts Council 0.56 62,984Grants: Agriculture Department 2.50 283,650

D. 236.60 D. 26,791,381Converted to Decorticated Basis 70.95%

D. 333.48

Sales Tax 27.15 D. 2,181,278Harbour Dues - GPMIB 1.25 41,351Harbour Dues allowed to Millers 58,067Other Allowances to Millers 2.35 189,016

F.O.B. Cost Bathurst D. 364.23 D. 29,262,093

SALES FOB BATHURST

Tonnage D/Ton D.

80,339. 476.80 38,305,654

Profit on Groundnut Trading D. 112.57 9,043,561Profit on Palm Kerne'l Trading 12,000Profit on Rice Marketing 297,863Sunday Investment Incone and UnusedProvisions Less Sundry Expenditure 333,618

D. 9,687,042

ANNEX 2Table 3

THE GAMBIA

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

GAMBIA PR4OWUCE MARKETING BOARD,

Produce Purchases and Sales 1968/69-1970/71

---------------Purchases---------------('000 tons

1968/69 1969/70 1970/71

Undecorticated Groundnuts 124.0 112.2 113.2

Palm Kernels 2.2 2.2 2.0

…___-S_ales------('000 tons)

1968/69 1969/70 1970/71

Groundnut Kernels

(a) Overseas Sales 49.5 33.2 25.0(b) Local Millers 1.9 10.9 11.0

Undecorticated Groundnmts

(a) Senegalese Buyers 8.0 _ _(b) Local Millers 43.5 47.9 36.3(c) Other - 0.4 1.6

Palm Kernels 2.4 1.6 2.3

June 21, 1972

ANNEX 3Page 1

THE GAMBIA

AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT PROJECT

AGRICULTURE AND LAND TENURE IN THE PROJECT AREA

Climate

1. The project area has a five-month rainy season (June to October)and a seven-month dry season. The average rainfall is 38 inches, but thereare considerable annual variations. The standard deviation, when expressedas a percentage of the mean for September and October (critical monthsfor rainfed crops), is 37%. Average monthly rainfall figures for 1960-70 were:

Montii Inches Month Inches

Jan. 0.00 July 7.82Feb. 0.10 Aug. 10.93March 1.00 Sept. 9.88April 0.04 Oct. 3.57May 0.30 Nov. 0.08June 4.96 Dec. 0.03

2. Mean maximum temperatures range from 89°F in August/September to104'F in March/April and the mean minimum for 76°F in December to 87°F inApril. The average monthly temperatures in Georgetown for 1960-70 were:

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Juy Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

Max.(°F) 95 100 104 104 93 97 91 89 89 92 96 93Min.(°F) 59 63 66 70 67 74 73 76 73 73 66 59Mean 77 82 85 87 80 86 82 81 81 82 81 72

Pan evaporation is about 75 inches per year.

Soils

3. A 1958 land use survey is the only source of general informationon soils. The Overseas Development Administration (ODA) of the BritishGovernment, however, is carrying out a new land use and soil survey (Annex 5).Soil maps at 1":125,000 scales are being made for the whole country, maps at1":5-10,001) scale for swamps selected for rice development, and maps at1:50,000 scale for areas suitable for cotton and groundnut production.

4. Project area soils fall into two major associations: upland andlow-lying alluvial soils. Upland soils are usually sandy, well leached,low in plant nutrient, and contain a lateritic hard pan. The alluvial

ANNEX 3Page 2

soils vary in character, but are rich in organic matter and high in plantnutrients; river bank soils are mostly loamy clays with a gley layer, whileswamp soils are heavy clays.

5. The Gambia River flows for about 100 miles through MID; inseveral places it divides into separate channels, and there are about300 miles of river bank in the Division. The irrigable area within 1,000yards of the river (the practical limit for small pump irrigation), extendsto about 100,000 acres. Existing land use maps indicate that half of thisland area is a loamy clay and the balance heavy clays; both are suitablefor intensive irrigated rice production.

Agriculture

6. Sorghum and millet are the traditional food crops but, since theearly 1940's, rice has gained in importance and is now an important partof the diet. Groundnuts, which are the main crop, were the only significantcashi crop until intensive rice production was introduced in 1966.

7. Traditionally, work on crop production is divided between menand women within a 'compound' (family group eating together). Men areresponsible for the growing of millet and sorghum for subsistence and theproduction of groundnuts as a cash crop. Women are normally solely responsi-ble for growing subsistence rice and divide their time between swamp andupland cultivation. As rice gains importance, both as a subsistence andcash crop, the traditional division of labor is changing and men are nowparticipating in the production of rice.

8. Agricultural techniques are simple. Rain fed crops are grownon a bush fallow system, with fallow periods limited to between 3 and 7years. Most cultivation is by hand but, over the last five year, Governmenthas encouraged the use of ox-drawn implements for rainfed crops; by 1971,farmers thought Gambia had purchased about 1,500 ox plows. Plowing of swamprice land by Government tractors has reached about 4,500 acres annually butthe financial aspects of the operation have not been successful; manyfarmers have not repaid their credit and annual operation costs have beenmuch higher than anticipated; government losses amount to D 70,000 annually.

9. Some improved seeds and seasonal inputs have been introduced forgroundnut cultivation, and the demand for fertilizers is growing only slowlyalthougii heavily subsidized. Most food crops are grown from unselectedseed and without artificial fertilizers. Animals, however, are sometimestethered to apply manure to the land.

10. The most significant breakthrough in introducing modern techniquesfor food crop production has been made by a scheme of intensive rice produc-tion under irrigation. A Republic of China technical assistance team issupervising the scheme. By 1972, about 2,500 acres for double cropping ricehad been developed, and of this, 1,700 acres were in MID. The scheme breaksaway from traditional agricultural practices, and familiarizes farmers withmacihines (pump engines and small cultivators), improved seeds, fertilizers,and water control for irrigation.

ANNEX 3Page 3

11. Under the scheme, farmers cultivate about one acre of rice. Eachfarmer is provided with small tools for land clearing. Clearing is done inSeptember and October wghen stumping is easy; the felled material is subse-quentlv burned during the next dry season. After burning, the area issurveyed and laid out for irrigation; farmers do most of the levelling andbund construction by hand, although a small amount of final land clearingis done by tractors. Before the first crop is planted, the land is deepplowed, anid a pump and engine is installed to lift water from the river.

12. Improved rice seed is given to the farmer in the first year andevery second year thereafter at the rate of 40-50 lb/acre. The seed isfirst planted in nurseries of about one-tenth of an acre. Seedlings aretransplanted at 9" x 8" intervals, with 5 per hole, when they are about2 - 3 weeks old and 4" high.

13. 'No rice crops are grown annually; the dry season crop is sownmid-January and harvested in May wlhile the rainy season crop is sown by mid-July and harvested in November. Each crop receives 440 lb/acre of compoundfertilizer (110 lb N and 44 lb P equivalent). Three dressings are applied;thc first 10 days after transplanting followed by two at fortnightly intervals.The rice is weeded immediately before each fertilizer dressing.

14. Initial plowing is done by tractor, and subsequent plowing isby power tillers, imported and serviced by the Chinese team. Harvestingis by hand, and the paddy is threshed in small pedal-operated machines.

15. Pests and diseases have not yet effected the Chinese varieties toany extent. There has been some blast, but this does not seem to be aserious problem, and light infestation of stem borers have been controlledby insecticides. The most serious cause of crop loss is grain-eating birds,but they can be controlled by children.

16. Labor requirements to develop and cultivate an acre of rice underthe Chiinese scheme are estimated to be: 100 days for initial land clearingand levelling, 30 days for land cultivation, 5 days for the nursery, 20days for transplanting, 15 days for weeding and fertilizing, and 20 daysfor harvesting and threshing.

17. The average yields obtained on the present scheme are shown below:

1968 1969 1970 Average

lb Paddy/Acre

Dry Season 4,510 3,857 4,500 4,300Rainy Season 4,203 4,453 4,500 4,400

Research

18. The majority of experiments on rainfed crops in the past five yearshave been at the Ministry of Agriculture's Yundum Research Station, ten milesfrom Bathurst, and 100 miles from the project area. The results have been of

ANNEX 3

Page 4

little value for application in the project area, where the climate and soilsare different.

19. The Senegal 28/206 groundnut, however, has been established intrials as superior to all other varieties. Yield increases of about 30%have been achieved by treating seed against insect pests with Gamma BHCand Aldrin.

20. Several maize and sorghum varieties have been imported and haveachieved yields of about 3,700 lb/acre; these compare favorably with thelocal sorghum control yield of 1,400 lb/acre. Nevertheless, there is in-sufficient information on the new varieties to make field recommendations.

21. Experiments have been carried out in the project area on importedrice varieties, and the effect of fertilizer on irrigated rice. Understandard experimental conditions the best imported rice (Kaoshiung I No. 4)yielded 9,400 lb/acre compared with 2,000 lb/acre for local varieties; about20 imported varieties exceeded 7,000 lb/acre. Fertilizer trials on importedvarieties have shown that yields can be increased from 3,700 lb/acre to7,600 lb/acre by applying 120 lb nitrogen (N) and 54 lb phosphate (P)/acre.Fertilizer trials on traditional swamp rice areas have been impossible due tolack of water control.

Future Agricultural Policy

22. Although population pressure on the land is not critical, thereis evidence that it is increasing and that it would become critical unlessthe level of technology is raised and farming systems improved. Cattleare already overstocked and fallow periods under shifting cultivation areshort. Before the position gets worse, Government is anxious to increaseproductivity and to make the best use of agricultural land. It hasinitiated studies (Annexes 4 and 5), an