rethinking agency and structure in the study of regime change

8/3/2019 Rethinking Agency and Structure in the Study of Regime Change

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Rethinking Agency and Structure in the

Study of Regime Change

James Mahoney and Richard Snyder

The oscillation of the study of political r egim e cha nge betw een voluntarist andstructural approaches has increasingly led scholars to seek research strategies forsynthesizing the two approaches. This article addresses the conceptual and practi-cal difficulties of achieving such a synthesis by evaluating several strategies forintegrating voluntarist and structural factors in the analysis of regime change. Itexam ines com peting ways of conceptualizing agen cy and structure and assessesthe varied conseq uences that differ ent conceptualizations have fo r explaining re-gim e transformation. The article also a nalyze s three distinct strategies for integrat-

ing agency and structure: the funnel, path-dependent, and eclec tic strategies. Eac hintegrative strategy is anch ored by a differ ent conceptual base and has characteris-tic strengths and limitations. The conclusion explores future directions for devel-oping integrative strategies.

ecent analyses describe the evolut ion of the s tudy of pol i t ical regim e chang e

n terms of a paradigm shif t betwee n two approaches wi th dis tinct mo des of

explana tion (see Levin e 1988, Be rm eo 1990, Karl 1990, R em m er 1991, Kitschelt

1993, and Mu nc k 1994). Ac cord ing to these analyses, an init ial phase of the study

of regime cha nge was do minated by s t ructural approaches , which rel ied on factors

such as class , sector , and world-sy stemic pol it ical ec ono my features to account forpol i t ical regimes) In a subsequent phase, s t ructural approaches were supplanted

by voluntarist approaches , wh ich emph asized the choices and s t rategies of the key

actors involved in processes of regim e t ransi tion. 2

These analyses are uni ted by their prescription that the next s tage in the s tudy of

regim e chang e should synthesize the two divergent approaches . The s t ructural ap-

proaches which characterized the "f i rs t generat ion" of work on regime t ransfor-

The auth ors are hsted in a lphabet ica l order and share equal respons ibihty for the content of this analysis . We

apprecia te helpful comm ents and su ggest ions from Christopher Ansel l . Ruth Berms Col l ier, M ichael Brat ton,

David Colher , Larry D~amond, Gms eppe dl Palma, Peter Evans. John Foran, Jeff Good wm. Tom asz Grabowski ,

Ernst Haas, Stephan Hagg ard, Jonathan Hart lyn. Terry Karl, Steven Levi tsky, Juan Lmz , Gerardo M unck,Pierre Ost lguy, Die t r ich Rueschemeyer , Eric Selbin, Michael Smatra , Jut ta Weldes. Alexander Wendt , and

Brendan Works.

Jame s Maho ney is Assistant Professor of Somology a t Brown Umversi ty . He is current ly f imsh mg a book that

analyzes l ibera l ism and regime change in f ive Centra l American countr ies during the 19th and 20th centuries.

Richard Snyd er i s Assistan t Professor of Poht ica l Science a t the Um versl ty of l lhnols a t U rbana-C hampa lgn.

He has publ ished numerous ar t ic les on both regime change and the poht ics of economic reform. He is cur-

rent ly complet ing a for thcoming book ent i t led Polmcs after Neoliberalism



4 Studies in Com parative International Developm ent / Summer 1999

mat i o n an d t h e v o l u n t a r i s t ap p r o ach es w h i ch ch a r ac t e r i zed t h e s eco n d mu s t n o w

b e i n t e g r a t e d ? T h e g o a l o f th e t h ir d g e n e r a t io n o f s t u di e s s h o u l d b e t o a n a l y z e

r eg i me ch an g e i n a w ay t h a t l in k s s t r u c t u r e s t o t h e s h ap i n g o f co n t i n g en t ac t o rch o i ce . K a rl an d S ch m i t te r ( 1 9 9 1 ,2 7 0 - 7 1 ) u s e t h e ru b r ic " f r o m co n t i n g en t ch o i ce

t o s t r u c t u r ed co n t i n g en cy " t o d e s c r i b e t o t h i s i n t eg r a t i v e ag en d a w h i ch r eq u i r e s

s t r i k i n g a b a l an ce b e t w een t h e s t r u c t u r a l an d ag en t i a l f ac t o r s t h a t s h ap e r eg i me

t r an s f o r ma t i o n s .

Th i s a r t ic l e s eek s t o ad v an ce t h i s i n teg r a t iv e ag en d a b y ad d r e s s i n g t w o i mp o r -

t an t bar ri e r s t o it s imple m en ta t ion . F i r st , advo ca tes o f i n t eg ra t ive app roach es have

s a i d li tt le ab o u t w h a t em p i r ica l an a l y s e s o f r eg i me ch an g e t h a t em p l o y t h e s e ap -

p r o ach es s h o u l d l o o k l i ke . N o r h av e t h ey o f f e r ed g u i d e l in e s f o r co n s t r u c t i n g th eo -

r i es t ha t i n t eg ra t e s t ruc tu ra l and vo lun tar i s t approaches .

S eco n d , t h e i r in j u n c t i o n to c o m b i n e s t ru c t u ra l an d ag en t i a l f ac to r s f o r ce s a co n -f r o n t a t i o n w i t h o n e o f t h e mo s t l o n g s t an d i n g an d i n t r ac t ab l e p r o b l ems o f s o c i a l

s c ien ce : h o w t o r e s o l v e th e p a r ad o x t h a t " h u m an ag en cy i s th e o n l y m o v i n g f o r ce

b eh i n d t h e ac t i o n s , ev en t s , an d o u t co m es o f t h e s o c i a l w o r l d .... [Y e t] h u m an ag en cy

can b e r ea l i zed o n l y i n co n c r e t e h is t o ri ca l c i r cu ms t an ces t h a t co n d i t i o n th e p o s s i -

b i l it i es fo r ac t ion and in f lue nce i ts cour se" (Dess l e r 1989 , 443) . Th i s per s i s t en t

s t u m b l i n g b l o ck , f r eq u en t l y ca ll ed t h e " ag en t - s tr u c t u r e p r o b l em, " p o s es s e r io u s

d i ff icu l ti e s f o r d e v e l o p i n g i n t eg ra t iv e ap p r o ach e s t o t h e s t u d y o f r eg i me ch an g e .4

Th es e d i f fi cu lt ie s h av e n o t b een s a t is f ac to r il y ad d r e s s ed . U n t i l t h e s e i m p ed i me n t s

a r e ack n o w l ed g ed an d e f fo r ts a re m ad e t o o v e r co m e t h em, w e w i ll co n t i n u e t o l a ck

a f i r m b as e f o r co n s t r u c t i n g i n teg r a ti v e th eo r i e s o f r eg i m e ch an g e t h a t r eco g n i zet h e cau s a l e f f ec ts o f b o t h s o c i a l s t r u c tu r e an d h u m an ag en cy .

W e a r g u e t h a t l ay i n g t h e g r o u n d w o r k f o r th e n ex t g en e r a t i o n o f s t u d i e s o f re -

g i m e ch an g e r eq u i re s t w o s t ep s t h a t mo v e u s t o w ar d i n t eg ra t i o n o f s t r u c tu r a l an d

v o l u n t a r is t ap p r o ach es . F ir s t, p r o b l em s o f t h eo r y co n s t r u c t io n i n v o l v ed i n d ev e l -

o p i n g i n t eg r a t i v e ap p r o ach es s h o u l d b e ad d r e s s ed . W e d o s o b y d i s ag g r eg a t i n g

s t ru c t u ra l an d v o l u n t a r i s t ap p r o ach es b o t h i n t e r m s o f t h e ir d i v e r g en t u n d e r l y i n g

co n ce p t i o n s o f h u m an ag en cy an d s o c ia l s tr u c t u r e an d i n t e r ms o f t h e ir me t h o d -

o l o g i ca l an d t h eo r e t i ca l co mp o n en t s . Th i s d i s ag g r eg a t i o n h e l p s i d en t if y t h e t r o u b l e

p o i n t s t h a t p o s e t h e s t r o n g es t im p ed i m en t s to d ev e l o p i n g in t eg r a ti v e ap p r o ach es .

I t a l so es t ab l i shes a c l ear base l ine fo r c l ass i fy ing a par t i cu l a r approach as s t ruc-tural , voluntar i s t , or in tegrat ive.

Th e s eco n d s t ep t o w ar d p r o m o t i n g emp i r i ca l w o r k t h a t i n teg r a t e s s tr u c t u ra l an d

v o l u n t a r is t ap p r o ach es i s t o i d en t i fy s t r at eg ie s f o r o v e r co m i n g t h e d i f f i cu l t i e s r e -

v e a l e d b y t h e f i r s t , d i s a g g r e g a t i v e s t e p . T o t h i s e n d , w e p r o v i d e a m e n u o f

s t r a t e g i e s f o r i n t e g r a t i n g a g e n c y a n d s t r u c t u r e i n t h e s t u d y o f r e g i m e c h a n g e .

W e probe the s t rengths and l im i tat ions of the s t rategies and analyze exem plary applica-

t ions of each. Th e conc lusion considers d i rect ions for fu ture research s trategies .

Structuralist Thesis , Volun tarist Antithesis: Com ponen ts of

Voluntaris t an d Structural Approaches

Desp i t e t he r ecen t p ro l i f e ra t i on o f ca l l s fo r syn thes i s o f vo lun tar i s t and s t ruc-

t u ra l ap p r o ach es , ad v o ca t e s o f i n t eg ra t i v e ap p r o ach es to t h e s t u d y o f r eg i me ch a n g e

h av e n o t ad d r e s s ed i mp o r t an t d i f f e r en ces i n h o w v o l u n t a r i s t an d s t r u c t u r a l ap -



Mahoneya n d S n ~ /d e r 5

proa ches co ncep tu a l i ze agen cy and s t ruc tu re as causa l va r i ab le s . In th is sec t ion ,

we in t rodu ce c ri t e r ia fo r d i f fe ren t i a ting these app roaches in t e rms o f t he i r con cep -

tua l "bases" and the i r me thodo log ica l and theore t i ca l " supe rs t ruc tu res ."

The Metatheoretical Base: C onceptualizing Agency an d Structure

In the i r conc ep t ion s o f agency , vo lun ta r i s t and s t ruc tu ra l approa ches a re d i s tin -

g u i sh e d b y t h e e x t e n t t o wh i c h h u m a n a c t i o n is u n d e r s t o o d as a c o n s e q u e n c e o f

soc ia l r e l a t ions . Volun ta r i s t approaches have an "undersoc ia l i zed" concep t ion o f

agency ; s t ruc tu ra l approaches , by con t ra s t , have an "ove rsoc ia l i zed" concep t ion . 5

In t e rms o f s t ruc tu re , bo th approaches recogn ize a po ten t i a l causa l ro l e fo r soc ia l

s t ruc tu res . However , vo lun ta r i s t approaches concep tua l i ze s t ruc tu res a s ex te rna l

c o n s t r a i n t s , wh i c h a c t o r s m a y o r m a y n o t e n c o u n t e r a s t h e y p u r su e t h e i r g o a l s .S t ruc tu ra l approa ches , on the o th e r hand , conce ive s truc tu res as om nipres en t , "gen-

e ra t ive" re l a t ions tha t d e f ine the iden t i t i e s and in t e re s ts o f ac to rs . 6

Undersoc ia li zed and Oversoc ia l ized Concep t ions o f Hum an Agency . Volun ta -

r i st a p p r o a c h e s c o n c e i v e h u m a n b e h a v i o r a s u n d e r d e t e r m i n e d b y so c ia l s t ru c t ur e s .

In th i s v i ew, ac to r s ' i den t i t i e s and in t e re s t s dur ing reg ime t ransfo rma t ions canno t

b e e x p l a i n e d b y so c ia l o r e c o n o m i c r o le s . Hu m a n a c t io n i s u n d e r s t o o d a s a f o r ce

e x t e r n a l t o a n d d i s e n g a g e d f r o m " o b j e c t i v e " s o c i a l r e l a t i o n s . A c c o r d i n g t o

O ' Do n n e l l a n d S c h m i t te r ( 19 8 6 , 4 ) , to e x p l a i n t r an s i ti o n s to d e m o c r a c y o n e c a n -

no t " re ly on re l a t ive ly s t ab le econ om ic , soc ial , cu l tu ra l , and pa r t i san ca t ego r i e s to

iden t ify , ana lyze , and eva lua te iden t i ti e s and s t ra t eg ie s o f t hose d e fen d ing the s ta -tus quo and those s t rugg l ing to re fo rm or t r ansfo rm i t .. . .[ I ]t is a lm os t imp oss ib l e to

spec i fy ex ante w hich c l a sses , sec to rs , i ns t i tu t ions , and o the r g roup s wi l l t ake wha t

ro l e , op t fo r wha t i s sues o r supp or t wha t a l te rna tive ."

St ruc tu ra l approach es , by co n t ra s t, t r ea t t he iden t i ti e s and in t e re s t s o f ac to r s a s

de f ined by pos i t i ons wi th in soc ia l s t ruc tu res and v iew cho ices and ac t ions a s r e -

su l ts o f t hese pos i t i ons . In the s tudy o f r eg im e change , c l a ss and cu l tu re have been

used in con junc t ion wi th th i s ove rsoc ia l i zed concep t ion o f agency . In O 'Donne l l ' s

(1973) structural ac cou nt of the origins of bureaucrat ic-authori tarianism, for exam ple,

ac tors ' in terests a re def ined m ainly in te rms o f c lass posi t ion, an d c lass-based groups

a re unde rs tood to a l ly o r oppo se one ano the r depend ing on ma te ri a l incen tives .T h e u n d e r so c i a l i z e d c o n c e p t i o n o f a g e n c y c h a r a c te r i zi n g v o l u n t a ri s t a p p r o a c h e s

h i g h l i g h t s h o w o n g o i n g i n t e r a c t i o n s b e t w e e n p u r p o s e f u l a c t o r s s h a p e r e g i m e

c h a n g e . Ye t th i s c o n c e p t i o n d e e m p h a s i z e s t h e p o s s i b i l it y t h a t t h e se i n t e r a c t io n s

may be a f fec t ed by p re -ex i s t ing soc ia l r e l a t ions which shape ac to r s ' i n t e re s t s and

capab i li t ie s . Con sequen t ly , vo lun ta r i s t appro aches o ve rem phas ize imm edia t e , shor t-

t e rm processes , cho ices , an d po l i t i ca l c ra f t ing , w hi l e ignor in g the ex ten t t o w hich

" the poss ib l e" i s cond i t ion ed by soc ia l s truc tu res .

T h e o v e r so c i a li z e d c o n c e p t i o n o f a g e n c y u n d e r l y i n g s t r u c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s su f -

f er s f r o m t h e c o n v e r s e p r o b le m . A l t h o u g h s t r u c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s re g a r d h u m a n

beha v ior a s soc ia lly g roun ded , t hey exc lud e how ac to r s sus t a in and , dur ing t r ans i-t i ons , t r ansfo rm po l i t i ca l r eg ime s t ruc tu res . Th i s concep t ion o f agency c rea t e s a

s t r o n g b ia s f o r e m p h a s i z i n g lo n g - t e r m , i m p e r so n a l p r o c e s se s a n d f o r o v e r l o o k i n g

t h e p o s s ib i l it y t h a t a c to r s m a y h a v e m a r g i n s o f m a n e u v e r a b i l i ty d u r i n g p e r i o d s o f

r e g i m e c h a n ge .



6 Studies in Comp arat ive International D evelopment / Sum mer 1999

Con s t ra in t and Gene ra t i ve Mo del s o f Soc ia l S truc ture . A t f i r s t g l ance , i t may

s e e m t h a t v o l u n t a ri s t a p p r o a c h e s d e n y t h e e x i s t e n c e o f s t ru c t u ra l f a c t o r s a l t o g e th e r .

H o w e v e r , a s O ' D o n n e l l a n d S c h m i t t e r ( 1 9 8 6 , 5 ) r e m a r k , t o e m p h a s i z e t h e r o l e o fagency " i s no t t o deny t ha t t he macros t ruc t u r a l f ac t o r s a r e s t i l l ' t he r e . ' " R a t he r ,

v o l u n t a r i s t s t u d i e s a s s u m e t h a t d u r i n g r e g i m e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s " t h o s e [ s t r u c t u r a l ]

m e d i a t i o n s a r e l o o s e r , t h e i r i m p a c t s m o r e i n d e t e r m i n a t e , t h a n i n n o r m a l c i r c u m -

s t a n c e s " ( O ' D o n n e l l a n d S c h m i t te r 1 9 8 6 , 5 ). 7 F r o m t h is p e r s p e c t iv e , r e g i m e t r a n -

s i t i ons a r e spec i a l t i mes w hen t he causa l i mpac t o f s t r uc t u r a l f ac t o r s i s t empora r i l y

r e l a x e d .

T h i s i d e a t h a t t h e c a u s a l i m p a c t o f s t r u c t u r e s v a r i e s a c r o s s h i s t o r i c a l j u n c t u r e s

d e p e n d s o n a c o n c e p t i o n o f s tr u c t u r e s a s c o n t i n g e n t cons t ra in t s t ha t po t en t i a l l y

( r a t he r than nece s sa r i l y ) l i m i t t he ab i l i t y o f ac t o r s t o ach i eve t he i r goa l s . Th i s c on-

s t ra i n t m o d e l o f s tr u c t u r e a s s u m e s t h a t a c t o r s " p r e - e x i s t " s t r u c t u r e s i n t h a t th e yhave i n t e r e s t s and i den t i t i e s p r i o r t o encoun t e r i ng s t r uc t u r a l cons t r a i n t s . S t ruc t u r a l

f a c t o r s a r e t r e a t e d a s b a r r i e r s e x t e r n a l t o a c t o r s w h i c h m a y o r m a y n o t s t a n d b e -

t w e e n t h e m a n d t h e a c h i e v e m e n t o f t h e i r a u t o n o m o u s g o a l s a n d i n t e r e s t s .

S t r u c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s , b y c o n t r a s t, c o n c e i v e s t r u c t u re s a s genera t i ve f o r c e s t h a t

de f i ne ac t o r s ' i n t e r e s t s and d i r ec t l y de t e rmi ne t he i r behav i o r . S t ruc t u r es a r e unde r -

s t o o d n o t a s c o n t i n g e n t r e l a t i o n s t h a t p r e - e x i s t i n g a c t o r s m a y o r m a y n o t e n c o u n -

ter, bu t as n eces s a r y r e l a ti o n s i n t e r n a l iz e d b y a c t o r s a n d f r o m w h i c h t h e ir i n t e re s ts ,

i d e n ti ti e s, a n d g o a l s d e r i v e . T h e s e g e n e r a t i v e s t r u c t u r e s a r e a s s u m e d t o e x i s t p r i o r

t o ac t o r s s i nce t hey cons t i t u t e t he ve ry p rope r t i e s ( e . g . , i n t e r e s t s and i den t i t i e s )

t ha t de f i ne ac t o r s and mot i va t e t he i r behav i o r .Volun tar i s t and S t ruc tura l i s t Concep tua l Bases . T h e r e i s a n e c e s s a r y a f f i n i t y

b e t w e e n t h e g e n e r a ti v e m o d e l o f st ru c t u re a n d t h e o v e r s o c i a li z e d c o n c e p t i o n o f

a g e n c y , j u s t a s t h e r e i s b e t w e e n t h e c o n s t r a i n t m o d e l o f s tr u c t u r e a n d t h e

u n d e r s o c i a l i z e d c o n c e p t i o n o f a g e n c y . I f s o c i a l s t r u c t u r e s a r e v i e w e d a s g e n e r a t -

i n g t h e e s s e n t ia l p r o p e r t i e s o f a g e n ts , t h e n a g e n c y i s n e c e s s a r i l y c o n c e i v e d i n a n

o v e r s o c i a l i z e d m a n n e r. L i k e w i s e , i f s tr u c t u r e s a r e v i e w e d a s c o n t i n g e n t c o n s t r a i n t s

e x t e r n a l t o a c t o r s , t h e n a g e n c y i s n e c e s s a r i l y u n d e r s t o o d i n a n u n d e r s o c i a l i z e d

m a n n e r . T h e s e a f f i n it ie s a l l o w u s t o i d e n t if y t w o d i s t i n c t " c o n c e p t u a l b a s e s " f o r m e d

b y m o d e l s o f h o w a g e n c y a n d s t r u c t u r e in t e rr e l at e ( s e e F i g u r e 1 ). T h e c o m b i n a t i o n

o f th e o v e r s o c i a l i z e d c o n c e p t i o n o f a g e n c y w i t h t h e g e n e r a t i v e m o d e l o f s t r u c tu r eF I G U R E 1

Conceptions o f Agency and Structure in V oluntarist and Structural A pproaches

V o l u n t a r i s t S t r u c t u r a l i s t

C o n c e p t u a l C o n c e p t u a l

B a s e B a s e

C o n c e p t i o no f A g e n c y

C o n c e p t i o no f S t r u c t u r e

U n d e r s o c i a l i z e d

C o n s t r a i n tM o d e l

O v e r s o c i a l i z e d

G e n e r a t i v eM o d e l



Mahoney and Snyder 7

f o r m s a "s t ru c t u r a li s t co n c ep t u a l b a s e" Th e co m b i n a t i o n o f t h e u n d e r s o c i a l i z ed

co n c ep t i o n o f ag en cy w i t h t h e co n s t r a i n t m o d e l o f s tr u c t u r e f o r ms a " v o l u n t a r i s t

con cep tua l base . '8

M ethodological an d Theo retical Superstructure: B uilding Block s o f Voluntarist,Structural, and Integrative Approa ches

Th e d i f fe r en ces b e t w ee n v o l u n t a r i s t an d s t ru c t u ra l ap p r o ach es can b e c l a ri f ied

b y d i s t i n g u i s h i n g t h e s e ap p r o ach es acco r d i n g t o f o u r c r it e ri a : p r i mar y ex p l an a t o r y

F I G U R E 2B u i l d i n g B l o c k s o f V o l u n t a ri s t, S t r u c t u r a l , a n d I n t e g r a ti v e A p p r o a c h e s

PrinruyE x p l a n a t o r y

Variable

Tenporal

Focus

UseofCorrptMson

Level o fAnalysis

lntegraaveApproach

tar ist Structur

o a c h A p p r o a c h

Sub ject ive S ta tesof.actors

Te l lpa r~yP ro x irmte

Causes

Idiographic

MicroAnalysis

ObjectiveConditions

T~yRemote

Causes

Norr~hetic ~ , tho d

Macro A nalysis



8 Studies in Comparat ive Internat ional Development / Summer 1999

var i ab le , t empo ra l focus , us e o f co mp ar i son , and l eve l o f ana lys i s . Volun ta r is t and

s t ru c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s a r e d e f i n e d b y t h e p o l a r e n d s o f t h e se f o u r d i m e n s i o n s ( s e e

Figure 2 ) . An in t egra t ive approach n eeds to co m bine these po la r a l t e rna tives wi thr e f e r e n c e to a l l f o u r c o m p o n e n t s .

Primary Explanatory Variable. The sub jec t ive eva lua t ions o f t he key ac to r s w ho

" m a k e " t r a n s i t i o n s s e r v e a s t h e p r i m a r y e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e i n v o l u n t a r i s t a p -

p r o a c h e s . Vo lu n t ar is t a p p r o a c h e s a r e b a se d o n t h e a s su m p t i o n t h at d u r i n g r e g i m e

t rans it ions , ac to r s a re soc ia lly d i sem bed ded in the s trong sense tha t t hey enco un te r

v i r tua l ly no s t ruc tu ra l cons t ra in t s . Th i s a ssumpt ion , combined wi th the den ia l o f

s t ruc tu ra l ly -de te rmin ed iden t i ti e s and in t e re s t s , leads to an und e rs t an d ing o f hu-

m a n a g e n c y a s t h e c o n se q u e n c e o f a c t o r s ' s u b j e c t iv e e v a lu a t io n s o f u n c e r t ai n o b -

j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s . T h u s , O ' D o n n e l l a n d S c h m i t t e r d i v i d e t h e m i l i t a r y i n t o

"sof t - l i ne r s" and "ha rd- l ine r s" based on d i f fe rences in sub jec t ive goa l s o f ac to r swh o o c c u p y t h e s a m e i n s ti tu t io n a l p o s i ti o n . L i k e wi se , t h e y s e p a r a te o p p o s i t i o n t o

t h e i n c u m b e n t a u th o r it a ri a n r e g i m e i n t o " m i n i m a l i s t " a n d " m a x i m a l i s t" c a m p s

a c c o r d i n g t o a c t o rs ' s u b j e c t iv e g o a ls , wh i c h m a y o r m a y n o t c o r r e sp o n d t o t h e i r

"ob jec t ive" soc io eco nom ic pos i t i ons (1986 , 15-17 , 63) .

S t ruc tu ra l approac hes , by con t ra s t, r e ly on ob jec t ive cond i t ions a s the p r inc ipa l

e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e . T h i s p r i o r i t i z a t i o n o f o b j e c t i v e c o n d i t i o n s s t e m s f r o m t h e

assumpt ion tha t ac to r s a re de f ined by soc ia l r e l a t ions and , hence , t he i r sub jec t ive

evaluat ions are epiph enom enal consequen ces of m em bersh ip in socia l col lec tivi ties .

Temporal Focus. A se c o n d d i s t i n c t io n b e t we e n s t ru c t u ra l a n d v o l u n t a r i s t a p -

proach es conc e rns how fa r back in h i s to ry to ex tend the ana lys i s t o iden t i fy causeso f r e g i m e c h a n g e . S t r u c t u r a l a p p r o a c h e s e m p h a s i z e l o n g - r a n g e , t e m p o r a l l y r e -

m o t e ca u se s . T h i s l o n g - r a n g e t e m p o r a l f o c u s s t e m s f r o m t h e a s su m p t i o n th a t h u -

man agency i s gene ra t ed by p re -ex i s t ing soc ia l r e l a t ions . Hence , exp lana t ions o f

r e g i m e c h a n g e m u s t l o c a t e c a u se s i n so c ia l s t r u ct u r e s th a t t e m p o r a l l y p r e c e d e t h e

a c to r s w h o c a r ry o u t t h e t r an s f o r m a t io n . An d t h e so c i a l s t r u ct u r es u n d e r s t o o d t o

c a u se r e g i m e c h a n g e o f t e n e x i s t l o n g b e f o r e t h e a c tu a l t r a n s f o r m a t i o n t h at i s t h e

t a rg e t o f a n a ly s is . Fo r e x a m p l e , in B a r r i n g t o n Mo o r e ' s ( 1 9 6 6 ) a c c o u n t o f t h e o r i-

g i n s o f m o d e r n d e m o c r a t i c a n d t o t a li ta r ia n r e g i m e s , t h e se o u t c o m e s a r e t r e at e d a s

s t ruc tu ra l l egac ie s o f h i s to r i ca l ly - remote pa t t e rns o f p re indus t r i a l ag ra r i an c l a ss

re l a t ions .Volun ta r i s t approach es , by con t ra s t , focus on shor t - t e rm, tem pora l ly p rox ima te

c a u ses . T h i s sh o r t -r a n g e t e m p o r a l f o c u s s t e m s f r o m t h e a s su m p t i o n t h a t p re - e x is t -

ing soc ia l r e l a tions cann o t exp la in the beh av io r o f ac to r s . A focus on h i s to r i ca lly

r e m o t e so c i a l s tr u c t u re s i s t h e r e f o re u n n e c e s sa ry . B e c a u se a g e n t s a r e u n d e r s t o o d

to ex i s t p r io r to s t ruc tu res , a t em pora l f r am e tha t cap tu res the i r i n t e rac t ions dur ing

t h e m o m e n t o f tr a n s i ti o n s e e m s a p p r o p r ia t e. Ac c o r d i n g t o O ' D o n n e l l a n d Sc h m i t te r

(1986 , 48) , fo r example , ana lyses o f t r ans i t i ons f rom au thor i t a r i an i sm shou ld be -

g i n b y f o c u s i n g o n h o w i n c u m b e n t e li te s c r e a t e p o l it ic a l o p e n i n g s . W h e n h i s to r i-

ca l f ac to r s a re u t i li zed in voh in ta r i s t approaches , t hey p l ay the causa l ly ins ign i f i can t

r o l e o f p r o v i d i n g a c o n t e x t u a l b a c k - d r o p f o r t e m p o r a l l y p r o x i m a t e p r o c e s se s wh i c h

ac tua l ly do the exp lana to ry work .

Use of Comparison. So c i a l s c i e n c e t h e o r y - b u i l d i n g i n v o l v e s t e n s i o n b e t we e n

seek ing causa l gene ra l i za t ions t rue ac ross many cases and cap tu r ing each case ' s

d i s t inc t ive fea tu res . Th i s t ens ion has fue led much deba te ove r the mer i t s o f i d io -




graph ic ana lys i s , which i s sens i t ive to the un iqueness o f cases, a s oppo sed to no-

mothe t ic ana lys i s , whic h deve lops gene ra l iza t ions tha t acc ount fo r seve ra l o r even

a l l ins tances o f a phen om eno n (Col l ie r 1993) .Volun ta ri s t approaches hav e an a f f in ity wi th the id iograph ic com para t ive me thod .

This a f f in ity is roo ted in the co ncep t ion o f r eg ime t r ans forma t ions a s con t ingen t ,

"unde rde te rm ined" even ts fo r w hich ac to r s ' sub jec t ive pe rcep t ions a re the p r inc i-

pa l exp lana t ion . Hen ce , each t r ans i tion is un iqu e because " the unexp ec ted and the

poss ib le a re a s impor tan t a s the usua l and the p robab le , " and the "normal soc ia l

sc ience" ques t fo r gen e ra l iza t ions and pred ic t ions i s r e jec ted in f avor o f id iograph ic

e x p la n a t i o n s t h a t e mp h a s i z e c h a n c e a n d c o n t in g e n c y ( O 'D o n n e l l a n d Sc h mi t t e r

1986, 3-5).

S t ruc tu ra l approaches , by con t ra s t , have an a f f in i ty wi th the nomothe t ic com-

para tive m e thod . Soc ia l s t ruc tu res , un l ike unde r soc ia l ized agen ts, a re im persona l ,non-con t ingen t , and h ave causa l p rope r t ie s tha t a re r e la tive ly un i fo rm ac ross t ime

and space (M anicus 1980). T he impersona l i ty and non -con t ingen cy of soc ia l st ruc -

tu res o r ien t s t ruc tu ra l approaches toward de ve lop ing causa l gene ra l iza t ions which

expla in , fo r example , why count r ie s wi th s imi la r s t ruc tu ra l f ea tu res expe r ience

s imi la r r eg im e t r ans forma t ions .

Level o f Analysis. Struc tura l and vo lun ta r is t approaches d i f fe r in te rms of the

leve l o f ana lys i s a t which they exp la in r eg ime change . L ike s tuden ts o f in te rna -

t iona l r e la tions , s tuden ts o f r eg ime chan ge face a " leve l o f ana lys i s p rob lem " c re -

a ted by the d i f f icu l ty "of a ssess ing the r e la t ive impor tance o f causa l f ac to r s a t

dif ferent levels of aggregat ion" (Wendt 1991, 387; see a lso Singer 1961) . In thes tudy of r eg ime chan ge , d i f f e ren t unde r ly ing concep t ions o f agency and s t ruc tu re

contr ibute to the pr ior i t iza t ion of causa l fac tors a t d if ferent levels of analysis . Struc-

tu ra l approaches em phas ize mac ro- leve l var iab le s . Volun ta ri s t approaches , by con-

trast , emphasize micro- level var iables .9

F iv e l e v e ls o f a n a ly si s a r e c o m m o n ly e m p lo y e d in s t u d ie s o f r e g im e c h a n g e :

macro- s t ruc tu ra l , domes t ic - s t ruc tu ra l , ins t i tu t iona l , soc ia l g roup , and leade r sh ip

( see Figure 3 ). The mac ro- s truc tu ra l l eve l consis ts o f va r iab le s tha t op e ra te a t the

in te rna tiona l sys tem ic and n a t ion-s ta te leve ls , such a s w or ld - sys tem pos i t ion , de -

gree o f na t iona l econ om ic deve lopmen t , and na t iona l cu l tu re . The dom es t ic -s t ruc -

tu r a l l e v e l e n c o mp a s s e s " o b j e c t i v e " s o c i a l g r o u p s d e f in e d b y f a c to r s s u c h a ssoc ioec onom ic pos i tion . Dom es t ic c la sses and func t iona l ro le g roups a re dom es-

t ic -s truc tura l var iables . The inst i tu t ional level comprises formal domest ic organi-

za t ions and the i r ru le s and procedures . Po l i t i ca l pa r t ie s , mi l i ta ry o rgan iza t ions ,

s tate bureauc rac ie s , and reg im e com ponents , such a s cons t i tu tiona l o r leg is la t ive

ru le s and procedu res , a re ins ti tu tiona l va r iab le s . The f ina l two leve ls o f ana lys i s - -

the soc ia l g roup and leade r sh ip leve ls - - -encom pass sub jec t ive ly -de f ined g roups

and spec i f ic po l i t ica l l eade r s , r e spec t ive ly . Soc ia l m ovem ents , ideo log ica l f ac t ions

wi th in the m i li ta ry , reg im e ha rd- l ine r s and sof t- l ine r s , and m odera te and m axima l i s t

oppos i t ions a re soc ia l g roup va r iab le s . Ind iv idua ls wh o lead sub jec t ive ly -de f ined

socia l groups o r inst i tu t ional- level organiza t ions, such as p ol i t ica l par t ies , govern -ments , and mil i ta r ies , a re leadership fac tors .

S t ruc tu ra l approaches use va r iab le s f rom the macro- s t ruc tu ra l and domes t ic -

s truc tura l levels . Var iables f rom the domest ic-s truc tura l level a re usual ly subordi-

na ted to va r iab le s f rom the m acro- s t ruc tu ra l leve l and t r ea ted a s in te rven ing causes .



10 Studies in Comparat ive Internat ional Development / Summer 1999

F IG U R E 3L e v e l s o f A n a l y s i s i n t h e S t u d y o f R e g i m e C h a n g e

A n a l y t i c A p p r o a c hL e v e l o f

A n a l y s i s

E x a m p l e s o f

V a r i a b l e s

Im , ~ .

<

O

S t r u c t u r a l

A p p r o a c h e s

V o l u n t a r i s t

A p p r o a c h e s

M a c r o -

S t r u c t u r a l

D o m e s t i c -S t r u c t u r a l

I n s t i t u t i o n a l

S o c i a lG r o u p

L e a d e r s h i p

W o r l d S y s t e mP o s i t i o n ;N a t i o n a lC u l t u r e

B o u r g e o i s i e ;M i d d l e a n dW o r k i n g C l a s se s

P a r t y S y s t e m s ;M i l i t a r y ;

C o n s t i t u t i o n a lR u l e s

M i l i t a r y F a c t i o n s

S o c i a lM o v e m e n t s ;

E t h n i c G r o u p s

G o v e r n m e n t ,P a r t y , an d

M i l i t a r y L e a d e r s

A n d r eg a r d l e ss o f t h e b a lan ce o f ex p l an a t o r y p o w er b e t w een t h e s e tw o m ac r o l ev -e l s, t h e " ex p l an a t o r y b u ck " o f s t r u c tu r a l ap p r o ach es s t o p s a t th e d o me s t ic - s t r u c -

tu ra l l eve l . I t does no t t r ave l t o t he soc i a l g roup o r l eader sh ip l eve l s because the

c o n c e p t u a l p r e m i s e s o f s t ru c t u ra l a p p r o a c h e s d e n y a u t o n o m o u s c a u sa l r o l e s t o

fac to r s a t t hese l eve l s .

B y c o n t r a s t, v o l u n t a r i s t ap p r o ach e s u s e v a r i ab le s f r o m t h e s o c i a l g r o u p an d

leade r sh ip leve l s . Th ei r vo lun tar i s t conce p tua l base , wh ich t r ea ts ac to r s as i so l a t ed

f rom soc i a l s t ruc tu res , c rea t es a b l ind - spo t t o t he po ten t i a l causa l ro l e o f macro -

l eve l f ac to r s . F rom th i s per spec t ive , on ly micro - l eve l soc i a l g roup and l eader sh ip

f ac to r s s eem n eces s a r y t o ex p l a i n r eg i m e ch an g e .

Criteria fo r Integrative App roaches. T he cr i t e ri a fo r i n t eg ra t ive approa ches fo l -l o w f r o m t h e co m p o n en t s o f v o l u n t a r is t an d s t ru c t u ra l ap p r o ach es : an i n t eg r a ti v e

a p p r o a c h s h o u l d e m p l o y t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a n d t h e o re t ic a l b u i l d in g b l o c k s o f

b o t h . I n teg r a t iv e ap p r o ach es a r e d e f i n ed b y u s e o f b o t h s u b j ec ti v e ev a lu a t i o n s o f

ac t o rs an d o b j ec t i v e co n d i t i o n s a s p r i ma r y cau s a l v a r i ab le s ; a f o cu s o n t emp o r a l l y




prox imate and rem ote factors; a m ethod ologic al con cern w i th case-specif ic and

genera l causes o f reg ime change; and an emp has i s on mu l t i- l eve l exp lana tions that

span microand

ma cro levels of analys is .

A t te m p t s a t S y n t h e s i s : I n t e g r a t iv e S t r a t e g ie s

This section evaluates strategies for integrating voluntarist and structural ap-proaches . We f i r st cons ider the " funne l" s trategy, wh ich in tegra tes agency and

structure by c om bining variables from m ult ip le levels of analys is . Ne xt we exam -ine the "path -dep ende nt" s trategy, w hich l inks a nteced ent h is tor ical -s tructural fac-

tors to subsequent actor choice during periods of regim e change. Finally, w e co nsider

"eclec t ic" st rategies , w hich ac hieve in tegrat ion at the ex pen se of theoret ical parsi -

mo ny. Figure 4 serves as a gu ide to the discuss ion that fo l lows.

FIGURE 4

S t r a t eg i e s f o r I n t e g r a t i n g V o l u n t a r i st a n d S t r u c t u r a l A p p r o a c h e s

F u n n e l P a t h - D e p e n d e n t E clecticS t r a t e g y S t r a t e g y S tra tegy

ConceptualBase

Model

ofCausation

Limitations

Exemplary

Applications

V o l u n t a r i s t

V e c t o r

M o d e l

P r i v i l eg esA g e n c y T h ro u g h

O n e - w a yCausa l i ty

L i n z & S t ep an ;A l m o n d ,

F l an ag an , &

M u n d t

Structural is t

E v o l u t i o n a ry

M o d e l

P r i v i l eg es

St ruc tu re

T h r o u g h

Pa t h -d e t e rmi n i s r r

Co l l i e r & Co l l i e rR u e s c h e m e y e r ,

S t ep h en s , &

S t e p h e n s

No

C o n s i s t e n tC o n c e p t i o n

Co r re l a t i o n a l

M o d e l

N o t P a r s i m o n i o u sIn d i s c r i mi n a t e l y

Pr i v i l eg esb o t h A g e n c y

an d S t ru c tu re

D i a m o n d , L i n z

& Lipse t ;H u n t i n g t o n



12 Studies in Com parat ive International Development / Summ er 1999

Construct ing a F unnel o f Causal i ty: The Fun nel Strategy

O n e i n t e g ra t i v e s t ra t e g y i s t o c o n s t r u c t a n e x p l a n a t i o n u s i n g s y s t e m a t i c , u n i d i -r e c t io n a l j u m p s a c r o s s t h e f iv e l ev e l s o f a n a l y s i s in F i g u r e 3 . T h e s e j u m p s c o n s i s t

o f t h e s e q u e n t i a l i n t r o d u c t i o n o f v a r i a b l e s f r o m n e w l e v e l s o f a n a l y s i s a f t e r t h e

e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r o f v a r i a b le s a t a l r e a d y - e x a m i n e d le v e ls h a s b e e n e x h a u s t e d .

Var iab les a t a pa r t i cu la r l eve l o f ana lys i s a r e under s tood to exp la in part of a r e -

g i m e o u t c o m e ; h e n c e , o n e m u s t c o n s i d e r v a r i a b l e s f r o m a l l l e v e l s t o a p p r o x i m a t e

a " fu l l " exp lana t ion .

M o v e m e n t a c r o s s l e v e l s o f a n a l y s i s i s systematic b e c a u s e i t i s g u i d e d b y t h e

a n a l y s t ' s j u d g m e n t t h a t v a r i a b le s a t a p a r t i c u la r l e v e l c a n n o t c o n t r i b u t e f u r t h e r to

t h e e x p l a n a t i o n ( i. e ., t h a t t h e y a r e n e c e s s a r y b u t n o t s u f f i c i e n t c a u s e s ). T h i s j u d g -

m e n t j u s t i f i e s m o v i n g t o a d i f f e r e n t l e v e l in o r d e r to f i n d a d d i t i o n a l n e c e s s a r yc a u s a l f a c to r s . T h e s e j u m p s a c r o s s le v e l s a r e unidirectional b e c a u s e c a u s a t i o n i s

t r e a t e d a s n o n - r e c i p r o c a l b e t w e e n l e v e l s . O n c e t h e a n a l y s t d e c i d e s t h a t t h e e x -

p l a n a t o r y p o w e r o f a l e v e l h a s b e e n e x h a u s t e d a n d s h i f t s to a l o w e r l e v el , it is n o t

n e c e s s a r y t o r e t u r n t o t h e " e x h a u s t e d " l e v e l , b e c a u s e i t h a s a l r e a d y m a d e i t s f u l l

c o n t r i b u t i o n to e x p l a i n i n g t h e r e g i m e o u t c o m e . In g e n e r a l , t h e s e j u m p s f o l l o w t h e

h i e r a r c h i c a l o r d e r i n g o f l ev e l s o f a n a l y s i s a s p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 3 , m o v i n g v e r t i -

c a l l y d o w n f r o m t h e m a c r o - s t r u c t u r a l t o w a r d t h e l e a d e r s h i p l e v e l.

I n t h e p r o c e s s o f b r id g i n g m i c r o a n d m a c r o l e v e l s, t h is s t r a t e g y c o m b i n e s t h e

o t h e r c o m p o n e n t s o f v o l u n t a r i s t a n d s t r u c t u r a l a p p r o a c h e s . A n a l y z i n g t h e m a c r o -

s t ru c t u r a l a n d d o m e s t i c - s tr u c t u r a l le v e l s i n c o r p o r a t e s s t ru c t u r a l e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i-a b le s , t e m p o r a l l y r e m o t e c a u s e s , a n d s t im u l a t e s b r o a d l y c o m p a r a t i v e

g e n e r a l i z a ti o n s . A n a l y z i n g t h e s o c i a l - g r o u p a n d l e a d e r s h i p l e v e ls i n c o r p o r a t e s a c -

t o r s ' s u b j e c t i v e e v a l u a t i o n s , t e m p o r a l l y p r o x i m a t e c a u s e s , a n d t h e s p e c i f i c f e a -

tu r es o f cases .

W e c a l l t h i s m e t h o d f o r i n t e g r a t i n g v o l u n t a r i s t a n d s t r u c t u r a l a p p r o a c h e s t h e

" f u n n e l s tr a te g y . 'a ~ T h e f u n n e l m e t a p h o r d e s c r i b e s th e p r o c e s s t h r o u g h w h i c h m o r e

c a u s e s a r e a c c o u n t e d f o r a s t h e a n a l y s i s d e s c e n d s f r o m h i g h e r t o l o w e r l e v e l s o f

a g g r e g a t i o n . T h e m a c r o - s t r u c t u r a l le v e l c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d t h e " t o p " o f t h e f u n n e l

b e c a u s e i t i s t h e m o s t a g g r e g a t e d l e v e l , a n d t h e r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e o u t c o m e s c o m -

pa t ib le wi th v a r iab les a t th i s l eve l i s b roades t . As the an a lys i s sh i f ts dow nw ard , ther a n g e o f p o s s ib l e o u t c o m e s c o n t r ac t s a s t h e e x p l a n a t o r y f o r c e o f i n c r e a s i n g ly m o r e

v a r i ab l e s is e x h a u s t e d . T h e l e a d e r s h i p l e v e l c a n b e c o n s i d e r e d t h e " b o t t o m " o f t h e

f u n n e l b e c a u s e i t i s t h e l o w e s t l e v e l o f a g g r e g a t i o n a n d t h e r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e o u t -

c o m e s i s n a r r o w e s t .

A Vector Model of Causation. The f u n n e l s t r a t e g y r e l ie s o n a m o d e l o f c a u s a t io n

i n w h i c h v a r i a b l e s f r o m d i f f e r e n t l e v e ls o f a n a l y s i s a r e t r e a t e d a s i n d e p e n d e n t v e c -

t o rs w i t h d i s t in c t f o r c e s a n d d i r e c t i o n s Y T h e " d i r e c t i o n s " o f t h e s e v a ri a b l e s a r e

t h e i r t e n d e n c y t o f a v o r c e r t a in t y p e s o f r e g i m e o u t c o m e s o v e r o t h e rs . T h e " f o r c e s "

o f t h e s e v a r i a b le s a r e t h e r e l a ti v e i n t en s i t ie s w i t h w h i c h t h e y f a v o r t h e o u t c o m e s

t o w a r d w h i c h t h e y a r e d i re c t e d . T h i s m o d e l o f c a u s a ti o n l e a d s t o a n u n d e r s t a n d i n g

o f e x p l a n a ti o n a s t h e r e s o l u t io n o f v e ct o rs : r e g i m e o u t c o m e s a r e e x p l a i n e d b y s u m -

m i n g f o r c e s a n d d i r e c t i o n s o f v a r ia b l es .

T h i s c o n c e p t i o n o f e x p l a n a t io n a s t h e re s o l u t i o n o f v e c t o r s i s t h e s o u r c e o f th e

f u n n e l s t r a t e g y ' s p o w e r t o i n t e g r a te v o l u n t a r is t a n d s t ru c t u r al a p p r o a c h e s . T h e p r o b -




l e m o f c o m b i n i n g d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f v a r i a b l es i n t o a s i n g l e e x p l a n a t i o n i s s o l v e d b y

u s i n g v e c to r s a s a c o m m o n d e n o m i n a t o r t o w h i c h t h e s e d i f fe r e n t t y p es c a n b e

r e d u c e d . T h u s , w o r l d - s y s t e m c o n d i t i o n s , i n s t i t u t i o n a l f a c t o r s , l e a d e r s h i p c h o i c e s ,a n d s o f o r th b e c o m e e q u i v a l e n ts f o r t h e p u r p o s e o f e x p l a n a t io n b e c a u s e t h e y a re

a l l c o n v e r t e d i n t o d i r e c t i o n a l f o r c e s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o t h e r e g i m e o u t c o m e . C o n v e r t -

i n g d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f v a r i a b l e s i n t o v e c t o r s t r a n s f o r m s t h e d i f f i c u l t p r o b l e m o f

b r i d g i n g l e v e ls o f a n a l y s is i n t o a s i m p l e q u e s t io n o f a d d i n g t h e e x p l a n a t o r y w e i g h t s

o f v e c t o r s .

Limitations of the Funnel Strategy. A l t h o u g h t h e f u n n e l s t r a t e g y s a t i s f i e s t h e

c r i te r i a f o r a n i n t e g r a t i v e a p p r o a c h , i t h a s i m p o r t a n t l i m i t a t io n s . F i r s t , t h e s t r a t e g y

r e l ie s o n a v o l u n t a r i s t c o n c e p t u a l b a s e: s t r u c tu r a l a n d a g e n t i a l fa c t o r s c a n b e c o n -

v e r t e d t o d i s c r e t e , i n d e p e n d e n t v e c t o r s o n l y i f a c t o r s a n d s t r u c t u r e s a r e c o n c e i v e d

a s m u t u a l l y i s o l a t e d . T h i s v o l u n t a r i s t c o n c e p t u a l b a s e c r e a t e s a b u i l t - i n b i a s t op r i v il e g e a g e n c y i n e x p l a i n in g r e g i m e c h a n g e .

M a c r o - s t r u c t u r a l a n d d o m e s t i c - s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s a r e u n d e r s t o o d t o f i l t e r d o w n

t h e f u n n e l o f c a u s a l i ty , t h e r e b y c o n s t r a i n i n g s o c i a l g r o u p s a n d p o l i t ic a l l e a d e r s.

B e c a u s e s t r u c t u r e s a r e c o n c e i v e d a s d i s e n g a g e d f r o m t h e s e u n d e r s o c i a l i z e d a c -

t o r s , h o w e v e r , t h e y c a n n o t e x p l a i n a c t o r s ' i d e n t i t i e s o r i n t e r e s t s a n d , h e n c e , c a n

o n l y p a r t i a l l y e x p l a i n t h e i r b e h a v i o r . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n t h a t s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s c a n -

n o t h e s u f f i c i e n t c a u s e s o f h u m a n a c t i o n f o s t e r s t h e p e r c e p t i o n b y t h e a n a l y s t t h a t

a m a r g i n o f a c t o r m a n e u v e r a b i l i t y always e x i s t s a m o n g t h e c r e v i c e s o f s t r u c t u r a l

c o n s t r a i n t s , a s i t u a t io n t h a t is u n d e r s t o o d t o c r e a t e o p p o r t u n i t i e s f o r a c t o r s t o a v e r t

r e g i m e o u t c o m e s s t r o n g l y f a v o r e d b y s t r u c t u r a l f o r c e s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , a l t h o u g hs t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s a r e r e c o g n i z e d a s c o n t r i b u t i n g t o r e g i m e c h a n g e , t h e " s t r a i n s "

t h e s e f a c t o r s p l a c e o n a r e g i m e " h a v e t o b e b r o u g h t t o a c r i s i s p o i n t b y a c t o r s "

( S t e p a n 1 9 7 8, 1 2 0 ). A n d s i n c e a c t o rs a r e u n d e r s t o o d t o e x is t i n d e p e n d e n t l y o f

s t r u c tu r e s , i t f o l l o w s t h a t t h e y a l w a y s h a v e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y not t o b r i n g s t r u c t u ra l

p r e s s u r e s t o a c r is i s p o i n t . I n s u m , s t r u c t u r a l v a ri a b l e s a r e w e i g h t s t h a t a r e n e c e s -

s a r y , b u t n e v e r s u f f i c i e n t , f o r " b r e a k i n g t h e r e g i m e ' s b a c k . " O n l y t h e p r i v i l e g e d

" s t ra w " o f l e a d e r s h ip c a n c a t a ly z e r e g i m e t r a n sf o r m a t i o n .

A s e c o n d l i m i t a t i o n o f t h e f u n n e l s t r a t e g y c o n c e r n s i t s in s e n s i t i v i t y to i n t e ra c -

t i v e c a u s a t i o n a c r o s s l e v e l s o f a n a ly s i s . B e c a u s e t h e a n a l y s t c a n n o t m o v e b a c k u p

t h e f u n n e l a ft e r a l e v e l ' s e x p l a n a to r y p o w e r h a s b e e n e x h a u s t e d , c a u s a t io n b e c o m e sa " o n e - w a y s t re e t. " T h i s o n e - w a y c a u s a l i t y i n h i b i t s c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f h o w , f o r e x -

a m p l e , m i c r o - l e v e l f a c t o r s m a y i n f l u e n c e t h e f o r c e a n d d i r e c t i o n o f m a c r o - l e v e l

f a c t o r s .

Exem plary Applications o f the Funnel Strategy. S e v e r a l c o n t r i b u t o r s t o The Break-down o f Democratic Regimes ( 1 9 7 8 ) , e d i t e d b y J u a n J . L i n z a n d A l f r e d S t e p a n , u s e

t h e f u n n e l s t r a t e g y t o c o m b i n e v o l u n t a r i s t a n d s t r u c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s . 12 A l t h o u g h

t h e v o l u m e ' s e m p h a s i s o n p o l i t i c a l l e a d e r s h i p h a s o f t e n l e d s c h o l a r s t o l a b e l i t a

v o l u n t a ri s t w o r k ( B e r m e o 1 9 90 ; O ' D o n n e l l a n d S c h m i t t e r 1 9 86 , 1 9) , t h e p r o j e c t 's

p a r t ic i p a n ts s o u g h t e x p l ic i tl y t o i n t ro d u c e h u m a n a g e n c y i n to t h e e x p l a n a t i o n o f

r e g i m e c h a n g e w i t h o u t d e n y i n g t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f s t r u c tu r a l f a ct o rs . T h u s , i n th ep r o j e c t ' s t h e o r e t i c a l v o l u m e , L i n z ( 1 9 7 8 , 1 0 0 ) w r i t es : " L e a d e r s h i p i s, f o r o u r p u r -

p o s e s , a r e s i d u a l v a r i a b l e t h a t u l t i m a t e l y . . . c a n n o t b e i g n o r e d ; b u t i t s h o u l d n o t b e

i n t r o d u c e d b e f o r e t h e e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r o f o t h e r [ i. e. , s t r u c tu r a l ] v a r i a b l e s h a s

b e e n e x h a u s t e d . " S t e p a n ' s ( 1 9 7 8 ) a n a l y s is o f t h e b r e a k d o w n o f d e m o c r a c y i n B r a-



14 Studies in Com parative Internationa l Development / Summ er 1999

z i l i n 1964 of fe r s an e spec ia l ly v iv id example o f how the funne l s t ra t egy can be

used to cons t ruc t an in t egra t ive exp lana t ion . 13

S tepan con s t ruc t s a funne l o f causa l i ty by sepa ra t ing exp lana tory va r i ab les in tot w o l e v e l s o f a n a ly s i s: m a c r o - p o l i ti c a l a n d m i c r o - p o l i t ic a l . T h e m a c r o - p o l i ti c a l

l eve l , which encompasses macro-s t ruc tura l , domest i c - s t ruc tura l , and ins t i tu t iona l

v a r ia b le s , f o r m s t h e t o p o f S t e p a n ' s f u n n e l b e c a u se h e e x h a u s t s t h e e x p l a n a t o r y

pow er o f these va r i ab les f ir st . Th e m ic ro-po l i t i ca l l eve l, whic h enco m pas ses soc ia l

g r o u p a n d l e a d e r sh i p v ar ia b l es , f o r m s t h e b o t t o m o f S t e p a n ' s f u n n e l b e c a u se h e

i n c o r p o r at e s t h e se v a r ia b l es o n l y a f te r e x h a u s t i n g t h e e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r o f m a c r o -

pol i t ica l var iables .

W i th d r a w a l o f f o r e i g n i n v e s t m e n t a n d a i d t o B r a z il i s t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t m a c r o -

s t ruc tura l va r iab le . Th i s w i thdrawa l s t rongly cons t ra ine d the ab i l ity o f reg ime in -

c u m b e n t s t o c a r ry o u t p o l i c y p r o g r a m s . S t e p a n a l so c o n s i d e r s d e m o g r a p h i c sh if tsa n d d e c l i n e in e c o n o m i c g r o w t h , w h i c h h e u n d e r s t a n d s to h a v e p l a c e d se v er e " l o a d s"

on the po l i t i ca l sys t em, p red i spos ing i t t o co l l apse . F ina l ly , a t t he ins t i tu t iona l

l ev e l, S t e p a n a r g u e s t h a t t h e i n c r e a s i n g ly f r a g m e n t e d s t r u c t u r e o f t h e Br a z i li a n

p a r t y sy s t e m w e a k e n e d t h e r e g i m e ' s c a p a c i ty t o c o p e w i t h g r o w i n g m a c r o - s t ru c -

tu ra l and domest i c - s t ruc tura l p ressures .

S tepan conc ludes tha t these s t ruc tura l and ins t i tu t iona l fac tors were necessa ry

b u t n o t su f f i c ie n t c a u se s o f r e g i m e c o l l a p se b e c a u se t h e y l e f t a " sm a l l m a r g i n o f

maneuverab i l i ty" w i th in which mic ro-po l i t i ca l f ac tors cou ld have ave r t ed the re -

g im e brea kdo wn (1978 , 122, 133-34). By c l a im ing to have exha us ted the exp lana -

to ry power o f macro-po l i t i ca l va r i ab les ye t f a l l en shor t o f a fu l l exp lana t ion fo rr e g i m e b r e a k d o w n , S t e p a n j u s t if i e s a d o w n w a r d j u m p t o t h e m i c r o -p o l i ti c a l l ev e l.

T h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e a n a ly s i s f o c u se s o n so c ia l g r o u p s a n d l e ad e r s , sh o w i n g h o w

p o o r l e a d e r sh i p sq u a n d e r e d t h e o p p o r t u n i t y t o a v e r t r e g i m e b r e a k d o w n o f f e r e d b y

t h e sm a l l m a r g i n o f m a n e u v e r a b i l it y .

A t the soc ia l g roup l eve l, S tepan con s ide rs the sub jec t ive eva lua t ions o f opp os i -

t ion groups and mi l i t a ry fac t ions , who he a rgues pe rce ived the reg ime as i l l eg i t i -

m a t e . H o w e v e r , S t e p a n f o c u se s m a i n l y o n l e a d e rsh i p , e sp e c i a ll y t h e a c t io n s o f t h e

ch ie f execu t ive , P res iden t Jo~o Goula r t . Ac cord ing to S tepan (1978 , 133) , "Co m -

bined wi th the s t ruc tura l weakn esses in the reg ime , Gou la r t ' s po l i t i ca l ac t s, s t r at e -

g ies and s ty le s pav ed the way for the f ina l b reakdow n."Desp i t e i ts su ccessfu l use o f the funne l s t ra tegy to co ns t ruc t an in t egra t ive ex-

p lana t ion , S tepan ' s ana lys i s has l imi t a t ions s t emming f rom the s t ra t egy ' s r e l i ance

on a vec tor mod e l o f causa t ion . G oula r t ' s de c i s ions a re tr ea ted a s a d i sc re t e causa l

vec tor tha t i s sepa ra te f rom o the r exp lana tory fac tors , such as demographic , eco-

nom ic , and ins t i tu t iona l va r i ab les . Cons equen t ly , a s sug ges ted by S tep an ' s desc r ip -

t i o n o f G o u l a r t ' s c a u sa l r o l e a s t h e " r e a l m o f t h e n o n - i n e v i t a b l e , " G o u l a r t i s

conce ived as an undersoc ia l i zed ac tor s t r ipped f rom h i s soc ia l moor ings . S tepan ' s

c o m m i t m e n t t o a v o l u n t a r is t c o n c e p t u a l b a se l e ad s h i m t o e x c l u d e q u e s t i o n s a b o u t

why G o u l a r t a c t ed a s h e d i d , m e n t i o n i n g su c h q u e s t io n s o n l y i n t h e c o n c l u s i o n a s

a p rom is ing a rea fo r fu ture re sea rch (1978 , 132-33).

G a b r i e l A l m o n d , S c o t t F l a n a g a n , a n d Ro b e r t M u n d t ' s ( 1 9 7 3 ) e d i t e d v o l u m e ,

Crisis, Choice, and Change, a l so exemp l i f i e s the us e o f a fu nne l s tra tegy . In h i s

in t roduc tory chap te r, A lm on d (1973 , 28-30) ou t l ines a funn e l o f causa l i ty by sepa -

ra t ing macro-s t ruc tura l f ac tors , which he cons ide rs "necessa ry bu t no t suf f i c i en t "




c a u se s o f r e g i m e c h a n g e , f r o m m i c r o - l e v e l e l it e c h o i c es , w h i c h h e c o n s i d e r s n e c e s -

sa ry fo r a fu l l exp lana t ion . Macro - l eve l va r iab le s , which co m pr i se the top por t ion

o f t h i s e x p l a n a t o r y f u n n e l , i n c l u d e f a c t o r s " e x o g e n o u s" t o t h e p o l i t i c a l sy s t e m ,su c h a s i n t e rn a t i o n a l m i l i ta r y p r e s su re s a n d e c o n o m i c c o n s t ra i n ts , g l o b a l d e m o n -

s t ra t ion e f fec t s , domes t i c soc ioeconomic s t ruc tu res , l eve l s o f soc ia l mobi l i za t ion ,

a n d e t h n i c cl e av a g e s . T h e m a c r o l e v el a lso i n c l u d e s " e n d o g e n o u s" fa c t o rs w i t h i n

the po l i t i ca l sys t em , such a s i t s " s truc tu ra l and cu l tu ra l f ea tu res ," wh ich m ay p re -

d i spose i t t o c ri s i s and t r ansfo rm a t ion (A lm on d 1973, 31-33) . A lm on d e t al. unde r -

s t and these macro- l eve l f ac to r s a s "cons t ra in t s , p re ssures , and oppor tun i t i e s" tha t

a r e n e c e s sa r y b u t n o t su f f i c ie n t t o e x p l a i n r e g i m e c h a n g e . T h e y t h u s ju s t i f y a d o w n -

wa r d sh i ft to wa r d t h e l e a d e rsh i p l e ve l: " W e m o v e f r o m t h e n e c e s sa r y c o n d i t i o n s o f

c h a n g e t o t h e su f f i c i e n t o n e s , f r o m c o n s t r a i n i n g c o n d i t i o n s t o c h o i c e " ( A l m o n d

and M un dt 1973, 63 0) . ~4I n h i s a n a l y s is o f I n d i a d u r i n g t h e m i d - 1 9 6 0s , p u b l i sh e d i n t h e A l m o n d , F l a n a g a n ,

a n d M u n d t v o l u m e , T h o m a s H e a d r i c k ( 1 9 7 3) m a k e s i n n ov a ti v e u s e o f t h e f u n n e l

s t ra tegy to exp la in the absence o f r e g i m e c h a n g e i n a c a se wh e r e a n a n a l y s is l i m -

i t ed to s t ruc tu ra l f ac to r s wo uld have p red ic t ed it. H eadr i ck f i r s t ana lyzes ho w so-

c i o e c o n o m i c p r e s su r e s , e t h n i c c l e a v a g e s , a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n s t a b i li t y c a u se d a

po l i t ica l c r is i s be tw een 1964 and 1967 w hich p red i sp ose d the reg im e to co l l apse .

De sp i t e t h e se p r e s su r e s t h e " b a s ic s t ru c t u r e o f t h e I n d i a n p o l i ti c a l sy s t e m r e m a i n e d

u n a l t e r e d " He a d r i c k a r g u e s t h a t t h e p r i n c i p a l c a u se s f o r t h e a b se n c e o f r e g i m e

breakdown were mic ro- l eve l f ac to r s o f po l i t i ca l l eade rsh ip and e l i t e " s ty l e ." Ac-

c o r d i n g t o He a d r i c k ( 1 9 7 3 ,6 0 0 ) , " T h e l e a d e r sh i p sh o w e d r e si li e n c e a n d c r ea ti v it y .I t cons t an t ly rede f ined i s sues to na r row the a reas o f d i sagreement and to inc rease

t h e i n c e n t i v e s f o r c o m p r o m i se . "

He a d r i c k ' s ( 1 9 7 3 , 5 6 0 , e m p h a s i s a d d e d ) d e sc r i p t i o n o f h is c a se a s a " p e r i o d

o f f e r in g t h e potential fo r t he deve lo pm ent o f se r ious c r i si s [ i n which] a c r is i s d id

no t occur" ra i se s in t r igu ing con t ra s t s wi th S tepan ' s ana lys i s o f Braz i l , where the

po ten t i a l fo r c r i s i s became rea l i t y . As ana lyzed by Headr i ck and S tepan , Ind ia in

1967 and B raz i l i n 1964 a re cases w here s imi l a r s truc tu ra l cond i t ions l ed to d i f fe r -

e n t r e g i m e o u t c o m e s b e c a u se o f v a r ia t io n s i n i n c u m b e n t s ' l e a d e r sh ip s t y le s . Ju x ta -

p o s i n g He a d r i c k ' s a n d S t e p a n ' s a n a l y se s a l l o ws u s t o m a k e e x p l i c i t t h e i m p l i c i t

c o u n t e r f ac t u a l a s su m p t i o n s o n w h i c h e a c h a u t h o r b a ses h i s c l a im t h a t l e a d e r sh i pwa s t h e d e ci s iv e ca u se o f t h e r e g i m e o u t c o m e : Ha d Go u l a r t a c te d i n a m o r e " m e -

d i a t o r y a n d r e c o n s t r u c t i v e " m a n n e r , l i k e h i s I n d i a n c o u n t e r p a r t s , r e g i m e b r e a k -

d o w n w o u l d n o t h a v e o c c u r r e d i n B r a z il ; a n d , c o n v e r se ly , h a d t h e I n d i a n l e a d e r sh i p

a c t e d in a m o r e i n f l a m m a t o r y a n d r e c k l e s s m a n n e r , l ik e Go u l a r t, r e g i m e c o l la p se

w ou ld hav e o ccur red in Ind ia . ~5

T h e f u n n e l o f c au s a li ty e m p l o y e d i n t h e A l m o n d , F l a n a g an , a n d M u n d t v o l u m e ,

l ike tha t used in the L inz and S tep an vo lum e , i s p rone to p r iv i l ege leade rsh ip . Th i s

t e n d e n c y is p e r h a p s m o s t o b v i o u s i n W a y n e C o r n e l i u s ' s ( 1 9 7 3 , 3 9 5 ) e m p h a s i s o f

the " sk i l l f ac to r" to exp la in the d ramat i c t r ansfo rma t ion o f t he Mexican po l i t i ca l

sy s t e m i n t h e 1 9 3 0 s d u r i n g L ~ z a ro C ~ d e n a s ' s p r e s id e n c y . Ac c o r d i n g t o C o r n e l i u s ,C ~ d e n a s ' s l e a d e r sh ip sk il ls we r e so p o t e n t th a t h e wa s a b l e t o " o v e r r i d e " s tr u c -

tu ra l cons t ra in t s and "choose ou t s ide the s t ruc tu ra l ly p red ic t ed se t o f ou tcomes"

( A l m o n d a n d M u n d t 1 9 7 3, 6 3 5 ) . T h i s v i e w o f C ~ ir de na s a s an a c t o r w i t h

"supras t ruc tu ra l " ab i l i ti e s r e f lec t s t he vo lun ta r i s t concep tua l base u nde rg i rd in g the



16 Studies in Com parative International Development / S umm er 1999

funnel s t rategy---Cg_rdenas is t reated as an undersocial ized actor d isengaged from

and , hence , po ten t ia l ly unenc um bere d by s t ruc tu ra l cons t ra in ts .

Almond e t a l . , l ike Linz and S tepan , regard l eadersh ip as a "b lack box" var i -ab le . Th u s , A l m o n d an d M u n d t c o n c l u d e i n t h e v o l u m e ' s f i na l ch ap t e r t h a t " sk e t ch -

ing in the l eadersh ip var iab le goes beyond the da ta base o f ou r p rogram. . . .What

r an g es o f f r eed o m o f ch o i ce t h e re m ay h av e b een i n h i s t or i ca l co n tex ts , o r m ay b e

in con tem porary s i tua tions , and how leadersh ip and ch o ice qua l it i es may a f fec t the

exp lo i ta t ion o f these oppor tun i t i es , a re the p rob lems o f fu tu re research" (1973 ,

6 4 1 ) . A l m o n d an d Mu n d t m ak e ex p l i c i t t h e v o l u n t a r i s t a s s u m p t i o n s u n d e r l y i n g

the i r in teg ra tive approach by ackn ow ledg ing the par t i c ipan ts' "b ias fo r hop e" and

em p h as i z i n g t h a t o n e o f t h e i r m a i n g o a l s i s t o " r eh ab i l i t a t e t h e ro l e o f h u m an

cho ice and creat iv i ty in deve lopm enta l prob lem solvin g" (1973, 642). 16 T he fun nel

s t ra tegy wou ld seem to have spec ia l appea l fo r those wh o have th is b ias fo r hope ,ye t seek in teg ra t ive (ra ther than vo lun ta f is t ) exp lana tions o f reg ime change . Scho lars

wi t h t h is n o rm a t iv e co m m i t m en t w i l l f in d co m fo r t i n t h e a s s u m p t i o n u n d e rp i n -

n ing the funne l s t ra tegy tha t, ev en in the m os t s t ruc tu ra l ly -cons t ra ined contex ts ,

as tu te l eaders can f ind marg ins fo r m aneuver .

Constructing a Causal Pathway: The Pa th-Dependent Strategy

A second in teg ra t ive s t ra tegy uses h i s to r ica l sequences to es tab l ish a causa l l ink

be tw een reg ime t ransfo rmat ions and tem pora l ly - remote events . The h i s to r ica l even ts

tha t in te res t those w ho em ploy th i s pa th -dependen t s tra tegy a re founda t iona l mo -me n ts , o r "c r i t i ca l junc tu r es , " wh en po l i t i ca l ac t ion c rea ted s t ruc tu res tha t had

pers is tent causa l effects w hic h shaped subseq uent t ra jectories of pol i t ical change.17

Th e p a t h -d ep en d en t s t r a teg y a l s o fo cu s e s o n t em p o ra l l y i n t e rm ed i a t e pro ces s es

tha t ca r ry fo rward the s t ruc tu ra l l egac ies o f h i s to r ica l junc tu res and u l t imate ly

conn ec t pas t c r i t ica l junc tu re s to subsequen t reg ime change . These in te rm ed ia te

processes const i tu te an h is torical t ra jectory , or "path ," which s i tuates the choices

tha t ac to rs m ake dur ing subsequen t reg im e t rans fo rmat ions in the con tex t o f long-

te rm s t ruc tu ra l e f fec t s o f p r io r c r i t ica l junc tu res .

The pa th -depen den t s tra tegy i s p remised on the as sumpt ion tha t "h i sto ry b i nd s" - -

even ts a t a g iven po in t in t ime l imi t fu tu re ou tcomes- -and tha t consequen t ly re -g i m e ch an g e can n o t b e ex p l a i n ed w i t h o u t a t t en t io n t o l o n g - t e rm e f f ec ts o f p a s t

events . Th e s t rategy shares th is "ant i -pre sent is t" com m itm en t w ith s tructural , "des-

t ined pa thway s" s t ra teg ies exem pl i f i ed by the w orks o f Barr ing ton M oore (1966) ,

Gu i l l e rmo O 'Do nne l l (1973) , and Grego ry Lu ebber t (1991) . 18 In ou r v iew, how -

ever, i t i s importan t to d is t inguish in tegrat ive, path- dep ende nt s t rategies fro m these

non-in teg rat ive, s tructural s trategies . O ur goal is to h ighl ight how the path-d epen -

den t s t ra tegy can t ranscend the s t ruc tu ra l i sm o f such des t ined pa thways ana lyses

by com bin ing vo lun ta r i st and s t ruc tu ra l approaches .

The ana lys t seek ing to use the pa th -depend en t s t ra tegy to cons t ruc t an in teg ra-

t ive exp lana t ion has two ove rarch ing ob jec t ives ( see A m inzad e 1992 , Krasn er 1988 ,and C o l l i e r and Co l l i e r 1991). T he f i r s t is to acc oun t fo r the g enes i s du r ing h i s to ri -

ca l junc tu res o f s t ruc tu res and ins t itu t ions hypo thes ized to have c r i t ica l ly shaped

subsequ ent pol i t ical tra jectories . Th e in tegrat ive ch al len ge is to avoid t reat ing events

dur ing c r i t i ca l junc tu re s as p re -de te rm ined by an tecede n t s t ruc tu ra l fac to rs . R a ther,




e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h e g e n e s i s o f s t ru c t u re s d u r i n g t h e se j u n c t u r e s sh o u l d r e l y o n

c h o i c e a n d c o n t in g e n c y .

The second ob jec t ive i s t o accoun t fo r t he endur ing e f fec t s o f t hese s t ruc tu resu p t o t h e m o m e n t o f r e g i m e c h a n g e . L i n k i n g p a s t c o n s t r a in t s c r e at e d d u r i n g c r it i-

c a l j u n c t u r e s t o f u t u r e re g i m e o u t c o m e s is a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h a " p r o c e s s t r a c in g "

proc edu re tha t uses h i s to r ica l na r ra tive to tr ace the in t e rac t ion o f agenc y and s t ruc -

tu re ove r t ime (George and McKeown 1985) . Here the in t egra t ive cha l l enge i s t o

a v o i d t r e a ti n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t a l p a t h l i n k i n g h i st o r ic a l j u n c t u r e s a n d su b se q u e n t

reg ime change a s the "de l ive re r o f t he inev i t ab le" : cap tu r ing the endur ing e f fec t s

o f p a s t s t r u c tu r e s m u s t b e b a l a n c e d a g a i n s t a l lo wi n g r o o m f o r a c to r s t o p l a y a u -

t o n o m o u s c a u sa l r o l e s i n su b se q u e n t r e g i m e t r an s f o r m a t io n s . 19

In pa th -dependen t ana lyses , c r i t i ca l j unc tu res a re pe r iods o f po l i t i ca l i ns t i t u -

t i o n a l f o r m a t i o n 7~ Po l i t i ca l i ns t i t u t ions se rve a s "ca r r i e r s o f t he pas t " ; t hey em-b o d y c h o i c e s a n d d e c i s i o n s t h a t a c t o rs m a k e d u r i n g c r it ic a l j u n c t u r e s a n d t r a n sm i t

t h e i r e f f e c t s f o r wa r d t o f u t u r e p e r i o d s o f r e g i m e c h a n g e . T h i s e m p h a s i s o n t h e

form a t ion and e f fec t s o f po l i ti ca l i ns t it u t ions d i ffe ren t i a te s pa th -d epe nde n t ana ly -

ses f rom s t ruc tu ra l and vo lun ta r i s t ana lyses , which typ ica l ly ignore the ins t i t u -

t iona l l eve l o f ana lys i s ( see Sny der and Ma ho ne y 1999). A fo cus on ins t i t u tions

a l so h e l p s o v e r c o m e t h e t wo i n t eg r a t iv e c h a l le n g e s d e sc r i b e d a b o v e .

Po l i t i ca l i ns t i t u t ions a re meso-s t ruc tu res tha t s t and be tween ac to r s and macro-

l eve l s t ruc tu res . The causa l impac t o f human ac to r s on ins t i t u t ions and the causa l

i m p a c t o f i n s t i t u t i o n s o n h u m a n a c t o r s a r e u n m e d i a t e d b y i n t e r v e n i n g l e v e l s o f

a n a ly s i s. T h i s " c l o se n e s s " o f i n s t i tu t i o n s to a g e n c y m a k e s t h e m a p o w e r f u l o p t i cf o r a n a l y z i n g t h e r o l e o f h u m a n d e s i g n b o t h i n c r e a t i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s

dur ing c r i ti ca l j unc tu res and in s us t a in ing tho se s t ruc tu res a f t e r j unc tu res . 21

Th e use o f h i s to r i ca l na rra t ive to ana lyze h ow ins t i tu t ions c rea t ed dur ing c r i t ica l

j u n c t u r e s a f f ec t su b se q u e n t p o l i t ic a l t r a je c t o ri e s h e l p s o v e r c o m e t h e i n t e g r a ti v e

c h a l l e n g e o f a v o i d i n g t e l e o l o g i c a l a r g u m e n t a t i o n . T h e " p a t h " o f p a t h - d e p e n d e n t

e x p l a n a t io n s i s a n a l y z e d t h r o u g h " t e m p o r a l l y o r d e r e d , s e q u e n ti a l, u n f o l d i n g a n d

o p e n - e n d e d ' s t o r i e s ' f r a u g h t w i t h c o n j u n c t u r e s a n d c o n t i n g e n c y " ( Gr i f f i n 1 9 9 2 ,

4 0 5 ). T h e se n a r ra ti v e s r ev e a l h o w i n s ti tu t io n a l r e p r o d u c t i o n a n d c h a n g e d e p e n d o n

t h e p u r p o s i v e , c o n t i n g e n t b e h a v i o r o f so c i a l g r o u p s a n d i n d i v i d u a l s . H i s t o r ic a l

na r ra t ive a l so he lps t ease ou t con t ingenc ie s and p robe coun te r fac tua l s i n o rde r t op inp o in t a lt e rna t ive pa ths tha t we re no t t aken (M ahon ey 1999).

An E volutionary M odel of Causation. Pa t h - d e p e n d e n t a n a l y se s r e l y o n a n e v o -

lu t iona ry mode l o f causa t ion tha t t r ea t s i ns t i t u t ions c rea t ed dur ing c r i t i ca l j unc -

tu res a s endur ing "gene t i c s tock" tha t de l imi t s a r ange o f poss ib l e t r a j ec to r i e s o f

po l i t i ca l chan ge (K rasne r 1988). Th ese t r a j ec to r i e s a re v i ew ed as l a t en t po ten t i a l i -

t ie s con ta ined by the ins t i t u t iona l gene t i c ma te r i a l c rea t ed d ur ing the c r i ti ca l j unc -

t u re . A l t h o u g h t h e se i n s ti tu t i o n a l " g e n e s" d o n o t b y t h e m se l v e s d e t e r m i n e wh i c h

t ra jec to ry f ro m the range o f poss ib i l i t ie s i s " se l ec t ed ," the evo lu t ion o f a po l i t ica l

sy s t e m i s u n d e r s t o o d a s a p r o c e s s o f a c t i v a t i o n a n d u n f o l d i n g o f p o t e n t i a l i t i e s

de f ined by founda t iona l i ns t i t u t ions .T h i s e v o l u t i o n a r y m o d e l c o r r e sp o n d s t o t h e " p u n c t u a t e d e q u i l i b r i u m " m o d e l

pro m inen t i n the f i e ld o f evo lu t iona ry b io logy (E ldredg e 1985 , Go uld 1982). L ike

e v o l u t i o n a r y b i o l o g i s t s wh o e m p l o y t h e p u n c t u a t e d e q u i l i b r i u m m o d e l , s t u d e n t s

o f r e g i m e c h a n g e w h o u se t h e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t st ra t e g y s t u d y f o u n d a t i o n a l e v e n t s



18 Studies in Comparat ive International D evelopment / Summ er 1999

t h a t b r e a k w i t h t h e p a s t a n d h a v e a d e c i s i v e i m p a c t o n f u t u r e c h a n g e . T h i s c a u s a l

m o d e l c o n t r a s t s w i t h " g r a d u a l i s t " e v o l u t i o n a r y m o d e l s w h i c h a s s u m e c o n s t a n t ,

i n c r e m e n t a l c h a n g e .A p u n c t u a t e d m o d e l o f c h a n g e a p p e a l s t o s c h o l a rs s e e k i n g t o c o m b i n e a g e n c y

a n d s t r u c t u r e b e c a u s e i t m a k e s i t e a s i e r t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e m o m e n t s c h a r a c t e r i z e d b y

p l a st ic i ty a n d c o n t i n g e n c y f r o m m o m e n t s w h e n p o l it ic a l p r o c e s s e s a re m o r e s t r u c-

t u r a l l y d e t e r m i n e d . " P u n c t u a t i o n s " c o r r e s p o n d t o p e r i o d s w h e n s t r u c t u r a l f a c t o r s

a re l e a s t d e t e r m i n i n g a n d w h e n a c t o r s h a v e t h e g r e a te s t d e g r e e o f f r e e d o m t o s h a p e

s u b s e q u e n t c h a n g e . C o n v e r s e ly , " e q u i li b r ia " c o r r e s p o n d t o p e r io d s w h e n s tr u c -

t u r a l f a c t o r s a r e p r i m a r y a n d a c t o r s h a v e t h e l e a s t a b i l i t y t o i n f l u e n c e s u b s e q u e n t

c h a n g e . G r a d u a l i s t e v o l u t i o n a r y m o d e l s , b y c o n t r a s t , a s s u m e " c o n s t a n t c a u s e s "

a n d t h u s o f f e r n o m e c h a n i s m s f o r d i s t i n g u i sh i n g p e r i o d s w h e n v o l u n t a r is t f ac t o rs

d o m i n a t e f r o m t h o s e w h e n s t ru c t u ra l f a c to r s d o m i n a t e . 22Limitations o f the Path-D ependent Strategy. Th e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t s t ra t e g y 's c o m -

m i t m e n t t o c a p t u ri n g l o n g - t e r m e f fe c t s o f p a st e v e n t s c r e a te s a s t r o n g t e n d e n c y t o

p r i v i l e g e s t r u c t u re o v e r a g e n c y . T h i s s t r u c tu r a l i st b i a s s t e m s f r o m t h e d i f f ic u l t y o f

c o m b i n i n g a n a p p r e c i a t i o n f o r h i s t o r ic a l c o n t i n u i t i e s a n d e n d u r i n g in s t i t u t io n s w i t h

a s e n si ti v it y t o th e d y n a m i s m o f h u m a n a g e n cy . T h e p u n c t u a t e d e v o l u t io n a r y m o d e l

o f c a u s a t i o n r e i n f o r c e s t h is b i a s : t h e a d v a n t a g e s t h e m o d e l o f f e r s fo r d i f f e re n t i a t-

i n g p e r i o d s w h e n a g e n c y i s p r i m a r y f r o m p e r i o d s w h e n s t r u c t u r e i s p r i m a r y a r e

p u r c h a s e d a t t h e p r i c e o f c o n f i n i n g a g e n c y t o m o m e n t s o f p u n c t u a t i o n ( i . e . , t o

c r it ic a l j u n c t u r e s ) . C o n f i n i n g h u m a n a g e n c y t o s u c h j u n c t u r e s o b s c u r e s t h e d y -

n a m i c i n t e r a c ti o n o f a g e n c y a n d i n s t it u t io n a l s t r u c t u r e s a c ro s s t i m e a n d e n c o u r -a g e s a r e l i a n c e o n s t r u c tu r a l e x p l a n a t i o n s f o r t h e o r i g i n s o f j u n c t u r e s .

A s n o t e d a b o v e , t h e e m p h a s i s o n p o l i t i c a l i n s t i t u t i o n s m i t i g a t e s t h e s e s t r u c t u r -

a l i s t t e n d e n c i e s , a n a d v a n t a g e t h a t e n a b l e s p a t h - d e p e n d e n t a n a l y s e s t o i n t e g r a t e

a g e n c y a n d s t r u c tu r e b e t te r t h a n d o d e s t i n e d - p a t h w a y s a n a l y se s . F o c u s i n g o n i n -

s t i t u t i o n s , h o w e v e r , d o e s n o t c o m p l e t e l y e l i m i n a t e s t r u c t u r a l i s t b i a s e s . B e c a u s e i t

e n c o u r a g e s c o n f i n e m e n t o f a g e n c y t o c ri ti c al j u n c t u r e s , t h e p u n c t u a t e d - e q u i l ib -

r i u m m o d e l c o n t r ib u t e s t o a p e r c e p t i o n o f i n s ti tu t io n s c r e a t e d d u r i n g j u n c t u r e s a s

f r o z e n s t r u c t u re s w h i c h " l o c k i n " a f u t u r e tr a j e c t o r y o f c h a n g e , d e t e r m i n i n g a p ar -

t i c u l a r p a t h r a t h e r t h a n d e l i m i t i n g a r a n g e o f p o s s i b l e p a t h s . T h i s s t a t i c

c o n c e p t u a l i z a t io n o f i n s t it u t io n s o b s c u r e s t h e i r p r o x i m i t y t o a g e n c y , r e d u c i n g t h e mt o r i g i d c a rr i e rs o f p a s t c o n s t r a in t s . S u c h a c o n c e p t u a l i z a t i o n , w h i l e n o t n e c e s s a r -

i l y d e n y i n g t h e r o l e o f h u m a n a g e n c y i n i n s t i t u t i o n a l creation d u r i n g j u n c t u r e s ,

l e a d s t o a n i n s t i tu t i o n a l d e t e r m i n i s m t h a t st ri p s f r o m post-juncture a c t o r s t h e a b i l-

i t y t o a l t e r i n h e r i t e d i n s t i t u t i o n a l s t r u c t u r e s . 23

P a t h - d e p e n d e n t a n a l y s e s m a y a l s o t e n d t o w a r d d e t e r m i n i s m i n e x p l a i n i n g t h e

o r i g i n s o f c r i ti c a l j u n c t u r e s . I f in s t i t u t i o n s a r e c o n c e i v e d a s f r o z e n c o n s t r a i n t s ,

t h e n e n d o g e n o u s , a g e n t - c e n t e re d c a u s e s o f t h e l o o s e n i n g o f t h e se c o n s t r a in t s a r e

e x c l u d e d . H e n c e , t o t h e o r i s t s w h o u s e t h e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t s t r a t e g y , o n l y e x t r a -

i n s t it u t io n a l , e x o g e n o u s f a c t o r s m a y s e e m r e l e v a n t f o r e x p l a i n i n g o r i g i n s o f c r it i-

c a l j u n c t u r e s . T h e s e t h e o r i s ts u s u a l l y p o i n t t o e x o g e n o u s , " g e n e r a t i v e " c l e a v a g e s

o r c r i s e s - - t y p i c a l l y s h o c k s f r o m c h a n g e s i n m a c r o - s tr u c t u r e s s u c h a s t h e g lo b a l

e c o n o m y - - a s c a u s e s o f c r i ti c a l j u n c t u r e s . 24 T h i s f o c u s o n g e n e r a t i v e c le a v a g e s

c r e a t e s t h e r i s k o f r e d u c i n g i n s t i t u t io n s f o r m e d d u r i n g c r i ti c a l j u n c t u r e s t o p r o d -

u c t s o f te m p o r a l l y - p r i o r s t r u c t u r a l fo r c e s . R a t h e r t h a n r e p r e s e n t i n g k e y c h o i c e




poin t s , t hen , c ri t ica l j unc tu res m ay be t r ea t ed a s even t s de t e rm ined by an teced en t

m a c r o - s t r u c t u r e s .

Exemplary Applications of the Path-Dependent Strategy. R u t h B e r i n s C o l l i e ra n d D a v i d C o l l ie r ' s Shaping the PoliticalArena (1991) i s an impor t an t compara -

t ive reg im e s tudy tha t uses the pa th -d epe nd en t s tr a t egy to in t egra t e s t ruc tu ra l and

vo lun ta r i s t approach es . Co l l i e r and C ol l i e r ana lyze a c r i t ica l j un c tu re ex pe r i enc ed

i n e i g h t L a t i n Am e r i c a n c o u n t r i e s: t h e i n c o r p o r a t io n o f l a b o r i n to t h e n a t i o n a l p o -

l it ica l a rena . Di f fe ren t t ypes o f l abor inco rpora t ion a re a rgue d to have se t cases on

d e v e l o p m e n t a l p a t h s t h a t u l ti m a t e l y le d t o f o u r r e g i m e o u t c o m e s : m u l t i p a r ty p o -

l a r iz ing sys t em s in B raz i l and Chi l e , e l ec to ra l s t ab il i ty an d soc ia l conf l i c t i n Co-

lom bia and Urugu ay , s t a l ema ted pa r ty sy s t ems in Argen t ina and Pe ru , and in t egra t ive

p a r t y sy s t e m s in M e x i c o a n d Ve n e z u el a .

C o l l i e r a n d C o l l i e r ' s a n a l y s i s o f l a b o r i n c o r p o r a t i o n d u r i n g c r i t i c a l j u n c t u r epe r iods i s sens i t i ve to bo th agency and s t ruc tu re . In t e rms o f s t ruc tu ra l f ac to r s ,

l a b o r i n c o r p o r a ti o n is u n d e r s t o o d a s a p r o c e s s c a u se d b y a so c i o e c o n o m i c c l e a v -

age expe r i enced in a l l e igh t cases : a d ramat i c inc rease in work ing c l a ss s t r eng th

a n d p r o t e s t re su l t in g f r o m su s t a in e d n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c g r o wt h i n t h e e a r l y t we n t i -

e th cen tu ry . Th i s s t ruc tu ra l c l eavage l ed p o l i t ica l l eade rs to r eco gn ize tha t p rev i -

o u s r e p r e s s i v e re sp o n se s t o l a b o r m o b i l iz a t io n w e r e n o l o n g e r a d e q u a t e a n d t h a t

n e w i n s t i t u t i o n a l a r r a n g e m e n t s we r e n e e d e d t o m a n a g e i n d u s t r i a l r e l a t i o n s . R e -

ga rd ing h um an agency , t he cho ices o f soc ia l g rou ps an d po l i t ica l leade rs a re t r ea ted

as impo r t an t f ac to r s d i f fe ren t i a t ing types o f l abor incorpora t ion . Acco rd ing to the

a u t h o r s ( 1 99 1 , 5 0 ) , " I f o n e w i sh e s t o e x p la i n w h y t h e i n c o r p o r a t io n p e r i o d s t o o kt h e sp e c i fi c f o r m t h e y d i d i n e a c h c o u n t ry , t h e a n sw e r w i l l f o c u s . . . o n t h e d y n a m i c s

of in t rae l it e po l i t ic s and cho ices b y ac to r s w i th in the s t a te . " In fac t, t he s t ar t o f a

c r i ti ca l j unc tu re o f t en co in c ides wi th the t imin g o f a spec i f ic l eade r ' s r e fo rm agenda .

The ana lys i s o f h i s to r i ca l pa ths l i nk ing c r i t i ca l j unc tu res to subsequen t r eg ime

outc om es a l so in t egra te s ag ency and s t ruc tu re . Ins t it u t ions e s t ab l i shed dur ing c r it i ca l

j u n c t u r e s a r e u n d e r s t o o d t o h a v e t r i g g e r e d c o m p l e x s e q u e n c e s o f p o l i t i c a l r e a c -

t io n s a n d c o u n t e r -r e a c ti o n s t h at c u l m i n a t e d i n d i s t in c t r e g im e s . O n t h e o n e h a n d ,

these reac t ions a re p rodu c t s o f i ns t i t u t ions c rea t ed dur ing c r i t i ca l j unc tu res an d a re

t h u s o u t c o m e s o f a n t e c e d e n t m e so - s t r u c tu r a l ca u se s . Fo r e x a m p l e , i n B r a z il a n d

Ch i l e , l abor incorpo ra t ion was ca r r i ed ou t unde r au thor i ta r i an reg imes , w hich t rig -g e r e d a n t i - a u t h o r i t a r i a n o p p o s i t i o n t h a t r e s t o r e d c o m p e t i t i v e , e l e c t o r a l r e g i m e s

(Col l i e r and C ol l i e r 1991, 353) . O n the o the r hand , t he ana lys i s o f pos t - junc tu re

p a t h s a l so e m p h a s i z e s h u m a n a g e n c y . T h e r e p r o d u c t i o n o f i n s t i tu t io n a l le g a c ie s i s

ana lyzed th rou gh h i s to r i ca l na r ra t ive tha t h igh l igh t s sub jec t ive dec i s ions by l ead-

e r s and soc ia l g roups . For example , t he au thors (479-83) exp lo re coun te f fac tua l

" p a t h s n o t t a k e n " b y su g g e s t i n g t h a t Pe r u m i g h t h a v e f o l l o we d a d i f f e re n t tr a je c -

to ry had i t no t been fo r a s t r a t eg ic b lunde r by the l eade rsh ip o f a ma jor po l i t i ca l

pa r ty rega rd ing i t s cho ice o f a l li ance pa r tne r s .

Ho w e v e r , a s c h a r a c t e ri z e s e v e n i n te g r a ti v e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t a n a l y ses , Shaping

the PoliticalArenanever the le ss t ends to p r iv i l ege s t ruc tu re ove r age ncy in ana lyz -

ing bo th the gene s i s o f c r i ti ca l j unc tu res a nd the pa ths tha t l ink these junc tu res to

su b se q u e n t r e g i m e o u t c o m e s . C o l l i e r a n d C o l l i e r 's u l t im a t e e x p l a n a t i o n f o r t y p e s

of l abor incorp ora t ion is dom es t i c c la ss s t ruc tu re . The o l iga rch y ' s po l i t ica l s t r eng th

and power re l a t ive to midd le sec to r r e fo rmers de f ine the coa l i t i ona l a l t e rna t ives



20 Studies in Comparat ive International Development / Summ er 1999

a v a i l a b l e t o t h e s e r e f o r m e r s a n d t e n d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i r c h o i c e s d u r i n g c r i t i c a l

j u n c t u r e s . F o r e x a m p l e , i n B r a z il a n d C h i l e , w h e r e t h e o l i g a r c h y w a s q u i t e s t ro n g

a t t h e o n s e t o f l a b o r i n c o r p o r a t i o n p e r i o d s , t h e a u t h o r s a r g u e t h a t m i d d l e s e c t o r sd i d n o t h a v e t h e o p t i o n o f m o b i l i z i n g t h e w o r k i n g c l a s s a n d , c o n s e q u e n t l y , w e r e

f o r c e d t o p u r s u e a s t r a te g y a i m e d a t c o n t r o l l in g t h e l a b o r m o v e m e n t .

A l t h o u g h C o l l i e r a n d C o l l i e r d o e x p l o r e c o u n t e r f a c t u a l " p a t h s n o t ta k e n , " i n st i-

t u t io n s c r e a t e d d u r i n g c r i t i c a l j u n c t u r e s t e n d t o l o c k i n a f u t u r e t r a j e c t o r y o f c h a n g e ,

l e a v i n g a c t o r s w i t h l it t le o r n o a b i l i t y t o a c t a g a i n s t m e s o - s t r u c t u r a l i m p e r a t i v e s.

T h e a u t h o r s ' c r it iq u e o f S t e p a n 's a n a l y s i s o f t h e b r e a k d o w n o f d e m o c r a c y i n B r a -

z i l in 1964 i l lus tra te s th i s t end en cy to p r iv i l ege s t ruc tu re :

the present analysis wo uld em phasize the s tructural context of polarization and po licy

imm obilism in Brazil . S om e analysts , su ch as Stepan, have pointed to G oulart 's defi-cient leadership in analy zing the collapse of his government. W hatever these deficien-cies m ay have been, i t is the present argum ent that polarization, as the outco m e of aprocess that can be traced back to the nature of the incorporation period, was a lreadywell advance d by the t ime G oulart s tepped into the presidency. In this contex t, thepolitical space for a centrist coalition was fast disappearing. (Collier and Co llier 1991,539)

H e n c e , f o r C o l l i e r a n d C o l li er , t h e c a u s e s o f t h e r e g i m e o u t c o m e a r e f o u n d i n

e n d u r i n g i n s t i t u t i o n a l g e n e t i c s t o c k c r e a t e d d u r i n g B r a z i l ' s l a b o r i n c o r p o r a t i o n

p e r i o d , n o t i n G o u l a r t ' s a c t i o n s.W hi le i t i s imp or tan t to recog n ize these s t ruc tu ra l t enden c ie s , Co l l i e r and C ol l i e r ' s

w o r k n o n e t h e l e s s q u a l i f i e s a s a n i n t e g r a t i v e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t a n a l y s i s b e c a u s e i t

s u c c e s s f u ll y c o m b i n e s t h e c o m p o n e n t s o f v o l u n ta r is t a n d s tr u c tu r a l a p p r o a ch e s .

I t s s e n s i ti v i ty t o t h e r o l e o f h u m a n a g e n c y i s f a r g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t o f s tr u c t u r a l,

d e s t i n e d - p a t h w a y s a n a l y se s .

In Ca pitalist Developm ent and Dem ocracy, D i e t ri c h R u e s c h e m e y e r , E v e l y n e

H u b e r S t e p h e n s , a n d J o h n S t e p h e n s ( 1 9 9 2 ) a l s o u s e t h e p a t h - d e p e n d e n t s t r a te g y to

a n a l y z e r e g i m e c h a n g e . T h e a u t h o r s s e t o u t " t o c o n s t r u c t a f r a m e w o r k th a t is in

p r i n c i p l e e q u a l l y w e l l a t t u n e d t o t h e s t u d y o f p r o c e s s [ i. e. , v o l u n t a ri s t f ac t o r s ] a n d

to the recog n i t ion o f s t ruc tu ra l cons t ra in t s . " Ye t they a l so "en te r t a in s e r ious re se r -v a t io n s a b o u t t h e v o l u n t a r is t ic b i a s " o f m u c h o f t h e l i t e r a tu r e o n d e m o c r a t i c t r a n -

s i t i o n s a n d r e a c t a g a i n s t t h i s b i a s , n o t i n g t h a t t h e i r " i n t e r e s t s d o c e n t e r o n t h e

s t ru c t u ra l c o n d i t i o n s o f d e m o c r a c y r a th e r t h a n o n a p r o c e s s a n a l y s i s o f r e g i m e

t r a n si t io n s " ( p. 3 3 ). H e n c e , a s R u e s c h e m e y e r , S t e p h e n s, a n d S t e p h e n s t h e m -

s e l v e s s u g g e s t , Capitalist Developm ent and Dem ocracy e m p l o y s a n i n t e g r a -

t i v e s t r a t e g y w i t h s t r u c t u r a l i s t b i a s e s . I n f a c t , t h e i r a n a l y s i s o f t e n c o n f o r m s

c l o s e l y to t h e s t r u ct u ra l , d e s t i n e d p a t h w a y s a p p r o a c h e x e m p l i f i e d b y t h e w o r ko f B a r r i n g t o n M o o r e . 25

R u e s c h e m e y e r , S t e p h e n s , a n d S t e p h e n s s e e k to e x p l a in t h e e m e r g e n c e a n d

s u b s e q u e n t s t a b i l iz a t io n o r b r e a k d o w n o f d e m o c r a t i c r e g i m e s i n t h i r ty - e i g h tc a s e s f r o m s e v e r a l w o r l d r e g i o n s . T h e y f r a m e t h e i r a n a l y s i s a r o u n d t h e l o n g -

t e r m d e v e l o p m e n t o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c c la s s e s a n d t h e f o r g i n g o f c la s s c o a li -

t i o n s , z6 T h e h i s t o r ic a l e p i s o d e s w h e n t h e s e c l a s s c o a l i t io n s f o r m e d a r e t r e a t e d

a s c r i t i c a l j u n c t u r e s , a n d t h e b a l a n c e s o f c la s s p o w e r a n d p a t t e r n s o f c l a ss a ll i-




ances cha rac te r i z ing each case a re a rgued to have c ruc ia l ly in f luenced the l i ke l i -

ho od o f fu tu re dem ocra t i za t ion . Spec i f ica l ly , the au tho rs a rgue tha t the w e l l -e s t ab-

l i sh e d c o r re l a t io n b e t we e n c a p i ta l is t d e v e l o p m e n t an d d e m o c r a c y e x is ts b e c a u sec a p i ta l is t d e v e l o p m e n t s t r en g t h e n s p r o - d e m o c r a t i c su b o r d i n a t e c la s ses , e sp e c i a ll y

t h e wo r k i n g c l as s , a n d we a k e n s a n t i -d e m o c r a t ic l a n d e d u p p e r c l as se s.

Th i s " re l a t ive c l a ss power" mode l i l l umina te s the ro l e s tha t agency and s t ruc -

t u r e p l a y i n t h e f o r m a t i o n o f c l a ss a l li a n ce s f o r o r a g a i n s t d e m o c r a c y . A l t h o u g h t h e

au thors a ssume tha t soc ia l c l a sses have s t ruc tu ra l ly -de f ined , "ob jec t ive" in t e re s t s

v i s -a -v is dem ocracy , t hey und e rs t and the ac tua l beh av io r o f h i s to r ica l c l a ss ac to r s

a s a so c i a l l y - c o n s tr u c t e d p h e n o m e n o n in f l u e n c e d b y c o n t i n g e n t c o n d i ti o n s . T h u s ,

c l a ss a c to r s d o n o t a l wa y s p l a y t h e r o l e s i n d e m o c r a t i z a ti o n p r o c e s se s p r e d i c te d b y

the i r s t ruc tu ra l ly -de te rm ined in t ere s t s. For ex amp le , t he au thors exp la in the w eak

d e m o c r a t i c i m p u l se s o f t h e wo r k i n g c l as s i n p o s t - wa r Ar g e n t i n a as a c o n se q u e n c eo f t h e p r o - wo r k i n g c l as s , y e t a u th o r i ta r ia n , g o v e r n m e n t o f Ju a n D o m i n g o Pe r 6 n

(1946-1955) .

In im por t an t ways , how ever , t he ana lys i s f a il s t o in t egra t e s t ruc tu ra l and vo lun-

t ar is t a p p r o a c h e s . F i r st , b e c a u se c r it ic a l j u n c t u r e s a r e u n d e r s t o o d a s p e r i o d s o f

c l a ss fo rm a t ion and c l a ss coa l i t i on-bu i ld ing , po l i t i ca l i ns t i t u t ions do no t p l ay the

r o l e o f " c a rr ie r s o f t h e p a s t" t h a t e m b o d y a c t o r s' c o n t i n g e n t c h o i ce s a n d t r a n sm i t

t h e e f f e c ts o f t h e se c h o i c e s t o f u t u r e p e r i o d s o f r e g i m e c h a n g e . 27 He n c e , r e g i m e

c h a n g e t e n d s t o b e e x p l a i n e d a s a d i r e c t o u t c o m e o f m a c r o - s t r u c t u r a l c a p i t a l i s t

d e v e l o p m e n t a n d r e l a t e d c h a n g e s i n d o m e s t i c c la s s s t r u c tu r e s , r e g ar d l es s o f a c -

to r s ' cho ices . S econd , the ana lys i s does n o t use h i s to r ica l na r ra tive to exp lo re howt h e p u r p o s i v e a n d c o n t i n g e n t b e h a v i o r o f so c i a l g r o u p s a n d l e ad e r s r e p r o d u c e d t h e

l egac ie s o f c r it i ca l j unc tu re s . Ra the r , t o the ex ten t tha t t he au thors d o em plo y h i s-

to r ica l na r ra tive , t hey o f t en p resen t i t wi thou t r e fe rence to spec i f i c acto r s . Con se -

quen t ly , desp i t e t he in t egra t ive in t en t ions o f t he au thors , Capitalist Developmentand D emocracy end s up c lose r t o a s t ruc tu ra l t han an in t egra t ive approach .

Balancing Parsim ony an d Integration: Eclectic Strategies

T h e q u e s t f o r a n i n t e g r a ti v e a p p r o a c h i s o f t e n a " c o m p l e x i f y i n g " e n d e a v o r t h at

s a c ri fi c es p a r s i m o n y i n t h e e f f o r t t o c o m b i n e m u l t ip l e t y p e s o f e x p l a n a to r y f a c -t o rs . W i t h o u t d e v ic e s f o r m a n a g i n g t h i s c o m p l e x i ty , s c h o la r s w h o se e k t o c o m b i n e

a g e n c y a n d s t ru c t u r e r u n t h e r i sk o f c r ea t in g u n wi e l d y f r a m e w o r k s i n wh i c h " e v -

e ry th ing m a t t e rs . " Th e fu nne l and p a th -de pen den t s t r a teg ie s mi t iga t e th i s t r ade -of f

b e t we e n p a r s i m o n y a n d i n t eg r a t io n w i t h p o w e r f u l i n te g r a ti v e m e c h a n i sm s . I n t h e

case o f t he funne l s tr a t egy , t he l eve l s o f ana lys i s h i e ra rchy se rves a s a s ca f fo ld fo r

so r t in g a n d we i g h t i n g d i f f e re n t ty p e s o f e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b le s . T h e p a t h - d e p e n -

den t s t ra t egy , by co n t ra s t , r e li e s on c r i ti ca l j unc tu res to d i f fe ren t ia t e pe r iods w hen

v o l u n t a r is t fa c to r s d o m i n a t e f r o m p e r i o d s w h e n s t ru c t u ra l f a c t or s d o m i n a t e . T h e se

i n t e g r a t i v e m e c h a n i sm s e n a b l e t h e t wo s t r a t e g i e s t o s e r v e a s m e t h o d s f o r c o n -

s t ru c t in g e x p l a n a ti o n s o f r e g i m e c h a n g e t h a t a r e i n te g r a ti v e an d p a r s i m o n i o u s .No t a ll i n t e g r at iv e s t ra t eg i e s h a v e su c h m e c h a n i sm s . So m e su c c e s s f u l l y c o m -

b ine vo lun ta r i s t and s t ruc tu ra l approaches ye t l ack c l ea r gu ide l ines fo r we igh t ing

d i f f er e n t t y p e s o f v a r i a b le s a n d sp e c i f y i n g " wh a t m a t te r s w h e n . " A l t h o u g h su c h

s t ra teg ie s a re l ess t idy and sys t em a t i c than the pa th -d epen den t and fu nne l s t r a te -



22 Studies in Comparat ive International Development / Summ er 199 9

gies , those wh o fee l pa r s imon y has been ove rva lued in the soc ia l sc iences wi l l find

v i r tues in the i r complex i ty . Fur the rmore , a s no ted in o ur ana lys i s o f the l imi ta t ions

of the funne l and pa th -dep enden t st ra teg ie s, the ve ry me chan isms tha t g ive themin tegra t ive pow er and e leg ance can have the undes i r ab le conse quenc e o f p r iv i leg-

ing s truc tura l or voluntar is t fac tors . Legi t imate reasons thus exis t for choosing an

ec lec t ic in tegra t ive s t ra tegy tha t i s l e ss e legan t than the fu nne l o r pa th -depen den t

strategies, ye t avoids som e of their r igiditie s and pitfalls.

The con t r ibu tors to the vo lum e Democracy in Developing Countries, e d i t e d b y

Lar ry Diam ond , Juan J . L inz , and Sey m our Mar t in L ipse t (1988-89), em ploy an

in tegra t ive s tr a tegy roo ted in exp l ic i t re jec t ion o f pa r s imony as a pa ramo unt goa l

in ana lyz ing reg ime change . In the i r d i scuss ion o f the p ro jec t ' s theore t ica l ap-

proach , Diamond , L inz , and L ipse t exp la in , "Ra the r than pur su ing some new, e l -

e g a n t, ' p a r s i m o n i o u s ' m o d e l , w e d e l i b e ra t e l y e s c h e w e d m o n o - c a u s a l a n dreduc t ion is t in te rpre ta t ions in f avor o f an exhaus t ive examina t ion o f the h i s to r i -

c a l , c u l t u r a l , s o c i a l , e c o n o mic , p o l i t i c a l a n d i n t e r n a t i o n a l f a c to r s t h a t m ig h t

a f f e c t t h e c h a n c e s f o r s t a b l e d e mo c r a c y " ( x i i i ) . I n c a s t i n g a w id e n e t e n c o m-

p a s s i n g s o m a n y d i f f e r e n t c o m p o n e n t s , D i a m o n d , L i n z , a n d L i p s e t ' s f r a m e -

w o r k s a t is f i e s o u r c r i te r i a f o r a n i n t e g r a t i v e a p p r o a c h . I t c o m b i n e s

g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a b o u t h o w ma c r o - a n d d o me s t i c - s t r u c tu r a l f a c to r s ( e . g . , i n t e r -

n a t io n a l s y s t e m i c c o n d i t io n s , l e v e l s o f s o c i o e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t , t y p e s o f

po l i t i ca l cu l tu re , and c la ss s t ruc tu re ) f avor o r inh ib i t dem ocra t ic r eg ime s wi th a

focus on po l i ti ca l l eade r sh ip and s t ra teg ie s o f sub jec t ive ly -de f ined soc ia l g roups

(e .g ., fac t ions o f the arm ed forces , and assoc ia t ions represen t ing regional or e thnicgroups) (Diamond , L inz , and L ipse t 1990 , 9 -34) . Ins t i tu t iona l va r iab le s a re in -

c luded th rough D iamo nd, L inz , and L ipse t ' s focus on po l i ti ca l pa r ty sys tems and

constitutional structures (1990, 25-29).

The case ana lyses in Democracy in Developing Countries em ploy an h is to r ica l

approach tha t weaves toge the r agen t ia l and s t ruc tu ra l va r iab le s by cons ide r ing the

"en t i r e h i s to ry o f a cou nt ry ' s expe r ience wi th dem ocracy . . . [ encompa ss ing] pe r i -

ods of democra t ic pers is tence , c r is is , author i ta r ianism, and renewal . . . . in order to

exp la in the ove ra ll pa th o f a coun t ry ' s po l i ti ca l deve lopm ent" (Diamo nd , L inz , and

Lipse t 1990 , 4 ). In i t s focus on h is to r ica l sequences , D iam ond , L inz , an d L ipse t ' s

f r amew ork re semb les the pa th -dep enden t s tr ategy . H owever , the ir f r amew ork lacksan in tegra t ive mech an ism for a t t ribu t ing d i f fe ren t we igh ts to va r iab le s a t d i s t inc t

po in ts in h i s to r ica l sequ ences o f r eg im e change . W hi le thi s in tegra tive s t ra tegy has

the advan tage o f min imiz ing the r i sk o f p remature r educ t ion ism and ana ly t ic r i -

g id i ty , the lack o f a mechan ism for spec i fy ing re la t ionsh ips be tween va r iab le s

encou rages the i r r ando m in t roduc t ion and fos te r s an " ind isc r imina te ec lec t ic i sm"

tha t does no t p roduce sys tema t ic exp lana t ions o f r eg im e chang e .28

In h is book , The Third Wave, Sam ue l P . Hun t ing ton (1991) deve lops an ec lec t ic

s t r a tegy tha t i s more sys tema t ic than Diamond, L inz , and L ipse t ' s . Hunt ing ton

organ izes h i s ana lys i s a round a d i s t inc t ion be twee n "cau ses" and "cause r s" o f t r an-

s i tions to dem ocracy . "Causes" a re soc ia l , econom ic , and in te rna t iona l s truc tu ra lf ac to rs tha t c rea ted a co n tex t f avorab le fo r dem ocra t iza t ion ac ross a l l the approx i -

ma te ly th i r ty count r ie s tha t fo rme d wha t Hunt ing ton ca l l s the " th i rd wave " o f de -

m ocra t iza t ion ( i. e ., those count r ie s tha t dem ocra t ize d be tw een 1974 an d 1990).

Hu ntingto n (1991, 107) asser ts tha t these gene ra l causes of the third wave did not




m ake dem ocra t iza t ion a necessa ry ou tcome: "A dem ocra t ic reg im e is ins ta lled no t

by t r ends bu t by peop le . Democrac ie s a re c rea ted no t by causes bu t by cause r s . "

Ac cord ing to Hunt ing ton (1991 , 108) , these "cau se r s" a re po l i t ica l l eade r s ands o c i al g r o u p s w h o e i t h e r c o n s c io u s ly p ro mo te d e mo c r a t i z a t io n o r t a k e a c t io n s ,

such a s pa r t ia l l ibe ra liza tion , tha t ind i rec t ly m ake dem ocrac y more l ike ly .

Through h is ana lys i s o f "causes" and "cause r s , " Hunt ing ton combines s t ruc -

tu ra l and vo lun ta r i s t approaches . The "causes" o f con tempora ry democra t iza t ion

inc lude ma cro- s t ruc tu ra l fac to r s such a s changes in the g loba l eco nom y dur ing the

1970s and 1980s, the spread o f in te rna t iona l norms favor ing democracy , and in -

c reas ing leve ls o f economic deve lopment . These f ac to r s a re t r ea ted a s a common

s t ruc tu ra l backdrop aga ins t which p rocesses o f r eg ime change wi th d i s t inc t dy-

nam ics unfo lded w i th in ind iv idua l coun t r ie s.

In h i s ana lys i s o f "cause r s , " Hunt ing ton sh i f t s the focus to these p rocesses ,em phas iz ing s t ra teg ic in te rac tions am ong sub jec t ive ly -de f ined ac to rs . H is focus

on s t r a teg ie s em ploy ed by f ive g roups - - s tandpa t te r s , l ibe ra l r e fo rmers , and dem o-

c ra t ic r e fo rmers wi th in the incumbent r eg ime , and revo lu t iona ry ex t remis t s and

d e mo c r a t i c mo d e r a t e s i n t h e o p p o s i t i o n - - in c o r p o r a t e s t h e c o mp o n e n t s o f v o lu n -

tar is t appro ache s (1991, 121-22). A lthou gh Hun tingto n 's focus on s tra tegic in ter -

ac t ions am ong sub jec t ive ly -de f ined po l i ti ca l g roups r e sem bles tha t o f vo lun ta r is t

approaches , he avo ids excess ive vo lun ta r i sm by em bedd ing h is ana lys i s o f in te r-

ac t ions wi th in meso-s t ruc tu ra l con tex ts de f ined by the ins t i tu t ions o f incumbent

au thor i ta r ian r eg imes . D i f fe ren t types o f a n c i g n s r e g i m e s a r e unders tood to de f ine

va r ied con tex ts o f s t r a teg ic in te rac t ion by shap ing ac to r s ' ba rga in ing pow er , coa l i-t iona l op t ions , and pe rcep t ions o f the cos t s and payof f s o f d i s t inc t s tr a teg ie s (1991 ,110-21).

Hunt ing ton thus o f fe r s a soph is t ica ted f r amework tha t success fu l ly combines

the components o f vo lun ta r i s t and s t ruc tu ra l approaches . A l though i t ach ieves a

grea te r degree o f pa r s imony and r igor than does D iamo nd , L inz , and L ipse t ' s f r ame-

w o r k , H u n t in g to n ' s a p p r o a c h n e v e r th e l e s s l a c k s a c l e a r me c h a n i s m f o r l i n k in g

macro- leve l "causes" to mic ro- leve l "cause r s . " The ana lys i s inc ludes no exp l ic i t

b r idg ing dev ices fo r connec t ing macro- leve l f ac to r s , such a s leve ls o f economic

deve lopm ent , p reva i l ing g loba l norms , and chang es in the g loba l econo my , to the

strategic ch oic es of actors d uring processes o f democratization in specific cou ntries. 29The inab i l i ty o f e c lec t ic s tr a teg ie s to ach ieve sys tema t ic in tegra t ion s tems f rom

the i r lack o f in tegra tive mecha n isms fo r com bin ing m ul t ip le causa l va r iab le s . Ra the r

than em ploy such an o rgan iz ing dev ice , these s t ra teg ie s r e ly ins tead on a "cor re la -

t iona l mode l" o f causa l i ty . In a cor re la t iona l mode l , "exp lana t ion i s ach ieved by

show ing an even t to be a type o f occur renc e a ssoc ia ted o r r egu la r ly con jo in ed wi th

specif ied fac tors , condit ions, and s ta tes-of-af fa irs" (De ssler 1991, 339) . Hu nting-

ton and Diam ond, L inz , and L ipse t use th is m ode l to exp la in r eg im e ou tcom es by

cons ide r ing a mul t ip l ic i ty o f va r iab le s tha t appe a r to be cons is ten t an teceden ts to

dem ocracy . How ever , in con t ra s t to s tanda rd quan ti ta tive cor re la t iona l ana lyses ,

which r e ly on s ta t i s t ica l me thods ( in pa r t icu la r , r egress ion ana lys i s ) to p inpo in tdom inan t causa l f ac to r s and thus ach ieve pa r simony , q u a l i t a t i v e s tud ies o f r eg im e

chan ge tha t r e ly on the cor re la t iona l causa l mode l have lacked a m e thod fo r ad ju -

d i c a t i n g a mo n g th e mu l t i p l e v a r i a b l e s t h a t c o - v a r y w i th r e g ime o u t c o me s ( s e e

Ragin 1987, 56) .



2 4 S t u d i e s i n Com p arati ve In t ern at i on a l D eve l op men t / S u m m e r 1 99 9

T h e f a i l u r e o f e c l e c t i c s t r a te g i e s t o s p e c i f y t h e c a u s a l w e i g h t o f a g e n t i a l a n d

s t r u c tu r a l v a r i a b le s i s r e f l e c t e d i n th e i r t e n d e n c y t o p r i v i l e g e a g e n c y a n d s t r u c t u r e

i n d i s c r i m i n a t e l y . A n a l y s t s w h o e m p l o y s u c h s t r a t e g i e s t y p i c a l l y d o n o t r e l y o n ac o n s i s t e n t c o n c e p t u a l b a se , a s i tu a t io n t h a t e n c o u r a g e s t h e r a n d o m i n t r o d u c t io n o f

a h o s t o f a g e n t ia l a n d s t r u c tu r a l v a ri a b le s . F o r e x a m p l e , D i a m o n d , L i n z , a n d L i p s e t

( 1 9 9 0 , 1 6 ) t r e a t s o c i e t a l p o l i t i c a l c u l t u r e a s a g e n e r a t i v e m a c r o - s t r u c t u r e t h a t c o n -

s t it u t es " t h e b e l i e fs a n d v a l u e s c o n c e r n i n g p o l i t ic s t h a t p r e v a i l w i t h i n b o t h t h e e l i t e

a n d t h e m a s s . " A t t h e s a m e t i m e , h o w e v e r , t h e y v i e w l e a d e r s h i p i n a n u n d e r s o c i a l i z e d

m a n n e r , b e c a u s e i n c u m b e n t e l it e s ar e u n d e r s t o o d a l w a y s t o h a v e t h e o p p o r t u n i t y

t o a v e r t d e m o c r a t i c b r e a k d o w n s ( 1 9 9 0 , 1 5) . L i k e w i s e , H u n t i n g t o n ' s d i s t in c t i o n

b e t w e e n " c a u s e s " a n d " c a u s e r s " e n t a i l s a l e a p f r o m a s t r u c t u r a l i s t t o a v o l u n t a r i s t

c o n c e p t u a l b a s e .

Sum mary and Suggest ions for F uture Research

T h i s a r t i c l e h a s p r o b e d t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n v o l u n t a r i s t a n d s t r u c t u r a l a p -

p r o a c h e s t o t h e a n al y s is o f r e g i m e c h a n g e a n d i n t r o d u c e d i n t e g r a t i v e r e s e a r c h

s t r a t e g i e s f o r c o m b i n i n g t h e s e t w o p e r s p e c t i v e s . W e h a v e s o u g h t t o m o v e b e -

y o n d p r e v i o u s p r o g r a m m a t i c c a l l s f o r s y n t h es i s o f a g e n c y a n d s t ru c t u re b y

s h o w i n g h o w s c h o l a r s h a v e a c t u a l l y a t t e m p t e d s u c h a s y n t h e s i s i n e m p i r i c a l

w o r k . T h e f u n n e l , p a t h - d e p e n d e n t , a n d e c l e c t i c s t r a t e g i e s h a v e a l l b e e n e m -

p l o y e d t o c o n s t r u c t i n t e g r a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s . T h e s e s t r a t e g i e s s h o u l d s e r v e a s

t o o l s t h a t f a c i l i t a t e f u r t h e r e f f o r t s t o e s t a b l i s h a n i n t e g r a t i v e m i d d l e g r o u n db e t w e e n t h e v o l u n t a r is t a n d s t r u c t u r a l e x t r e m e s t h a t h a v e d o m i n a t e d w o r k o n

r e g i m e c h a n g e . 3~

W e d o n o t c l a i m t o o f f e r a n e x h a u s t iv e m e n u o f s t ra t e g ie s f o r f i n d i n g th i s m i d d l e

g r o u n d : t h e th r e e s t ra t e g i e s i n t r o d u c e d h e r e a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e o n l y m e t h o d s

f o r a c h i e v i n g i n t e g r a t i v e e x p l a n a t i o n s . N o r d o w e c l a i m t o p r o v i d e a d e f i n i t i v e

s o l u t io n t o t h e a g e n t - st r u c tu r e p r o b l e m i n th e s t u d y o f r e g i m e c h a n g e . A l t h o u g h a l l

t h re e s t r at e g ie s i n t e g r at e t h e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a n d t h e o re t ic a l c o m p o n e n t s o f v o l u n -

t a ri st a n d s t r u c tu r a l a p p r o a c h e s , o u r a n a l y s i s o f t h e l i m i t a t i o n s o f t h e s e s t r a te g i e s

r e v e a l s t h a t a l l a r e p r o n e t o p r i v i l e g e a g e n c y o r s t r u c t u r e b e c a u s e t h e y c o m b i n e

i n t e g r a t i v e m e t h o d o l o g i c a l a n d t h e o r e t i c a l s u p e r s t r u c t u r e s w i t h non - i n t e g r a t i v e( i . e . , v o l u n t a r i s t o r s t r u c t u r a l i s t ) c o n c e p t u a l b a s e s . A f u l l y i n t e g r a t i v e a p p r o a c h

r e q u i r e s a n i n t e g r a t i v e c o n c e p t u a l b a s e t h a t g o e s b e y o n d u n d e r s o c i a l i z e d a n d

o v e r s o c i a li z e d c o n c e p t i o n s o f a g e n c y a s w e l l a s c o n s t ra i n t a n d g e n e r a t i v e m o d e l s

o f s t r u c t u r e .

F o r t u n a t e ly , t h e s e e x i s t i n g c o n c e p t i o n s o f a g e n c y a n d s t r u c t u r e a r e n o t o u r o n l y

o p t i o n s . R e c e n t w o r k i n s o c ia l th e o r y o f f e rs n o v e l u n d e r s t a n d i n g s o f t h e a g e n t -

s t r u c t u r e r e l a t i o n s h i p t h a t c o u l d b e u s e d t o b u i l d a n i n t e g r a t i v e c o n c e p t u a l b a s e .

A m o n g t h e m o s t p r o m i s i n g o f t h e s e c o n c e p t u a l f o r m u l a t i o n s a r e t h e n o t i o n s t h a t

s t r u c t u r e s a r e r e s o u r c e s a n d t h a t h u m a n a g e n c y i s t h e c a p a c i t y t o a p p r o p r i a t e a n d

p o t e n t i a l l y t r a n s f o r m s t r u c tu r a l r e s o u r c e s i n a s e l f - c o n s c i o u s , r e f l e x i v e m a n n e r . 3~A s F i g u r e 5 i ll u st ra te s , t h e s e c o n c e p t i o n s o f a g e n c y a n d s t r u c tu r e c a n b e c o m b i n e d

t o f o r m a t h i r d - - i n t e g r a t i v e - - - - c o n c e p t u a l b a s e .

C o n c e p t u a l i z i n g s t r u c tu r e s a s r e s o u r c e s h i g h l i g h t s h o w t h e y s i m u l t a n e o u s l y

e n a b l e a c t i o n b y p r o v i d i n g t o o l s a c t o r s u s e t o p u r s u e t h e i r p o l i t i c a l p r o j e c t s a n d




F I G U R E 5Voluntarist , Structu ralist , and Integrative C oncep tual Ba ses

V o l u n t a r i s t S t r u c t u r a l is t I n t e g r a t iv e

C o n c e p t u a l C o n c e p t u a l C o n c e p t u a l

B a s e B a s e B a s e

Conceptionof Agency

Conceptiono f S ~

Undersocialized

ConstraintModel

Oversocialized

GenerativeModel

Reflexive

ResoLlrOe

Model

co n s t r a i n ac t i o n b y d e l i m i t i n g th e r an g e o f p o s s i b l e p r o j ect s . Th e i d ea t h a t s t r u c-

t u r e s b o t h en ab l e an d l im i t h u m an ag en cy d i f f e ren t i a te s t h e re s o u r ce m o d e l f r o m

t h e g en e r a t iv e an d co n s t r a i n t mo d e l s , w h i ch o b s c u r e t h e em p o w er i n g p r o p e r t ie s o f

s t ru c t u r e s b y h i g h l i g h t i n g o n l y h o w t h ey i m p o s e l i m i t s o n ag en cy .

T h e r e s o u r c e m o d e l i s f u r t h e r d i s t i n g u i s h e d f r o m c o n s t r a i n t a n d g e n e r a t i v e

m o d e l s b yhow

s t ruc tu res a re unde r s too d to l imi t ac tion . In t he cons t r a in t m ode l ,s t ruc tu res a re v i ew ed as bar r i e r s t ha t obs t ruc t t he des igns o f ac to rs . In t he r esou rce

mo d e l , b y co n t ra s t , s t ru c t u r e s li m i t ag en cy n o t b y o b s t r u c ti n g , b u t b y m ak i n g av a il -

ab l e a f i n i te r ep e r to i r e o f t o o ls f o r ac t i o n - - a r ep e r t o ir e ac t o rs can p o t en t i a ll y mo d i f y

an d i m p r o v e . I n t h e g en e r a t iv e mo d e l , s t ru c t u r e s d ir ec t ly d e t e r m i n e h u m an b e h av -

io r. I n t h e r e s o u r ce m o d e l , b y co n t r a s t, s t r u c t u r e s o p e r a t e a s en v i r o n m en t s t h a t

d e l i m i t t h e r an g e o f p o s s i b l e ac t i o n s w i t h o u t d e t e r mi n i n g ac t i o n . F r o m t h i s p e r -

spec t ive , peop le ac t t h roug h s t ruc tu res , r a ther t han s t ruc tu res ac t ing th rou gh peop le ,

a s i n t h e g en e r a t iv e m o d e l .

T h e r e fl e xi v e c o n c e p t i o n o f h u m a n a g e n c y e m p h a s i z e s h o w a c to r s s e l f- c o n-

s c i o u s l y d ep l o y s t ru c t u ra l r e s o u r ces an d m o d i f y t h e i r b eh av i o r i n r e s p o n s e t o ch a n g -

ing s i t ua t ions . Th i s no t ion tha t agency i s t he appropr i a t i on o f s t ruc tu ra l r esources

co n t r a s t s w i t h t h e u n d e r s o c i a l iz ed v i ew t h a t ag en cy o c cu r s i n i s o l a t io n f r o m s t ru c -

t u ra l co n s t r a in t s . L i k ew i s e , t h e u n d e r s t an d i n g th a t a c t o r s can c h o o s e h o w t o u s e

s t ruc tu ra l r esources and po ten t i a l l y improve these r esources d i f f e r s s t a rk ly f rom

t h e o v e r s o c i a l iz ed v i ew o f ag e n cy a s a r e s u l t o f g en e r a t i v e s o c i a l s tr u c tu r e s . Tak en

t o g e th e r , th e r e s o u r ce m o d e l o f s t r u c tu r e an d t h e r e fl ex iv e co n ce p t i o n o f ag en cy

fo rm an in t eg ra t ive con cep tua l base t ha t cou ld anc ho r fu tu re in t eg ra t ive st r a teg i es .

To o u r k n o w l ed g e , th i s in t eg r a ti v e co n ce p t u a l b a s e h a s y e t t o b e em p l o y ed in

em p i r ica l w o r k o n r e g i me ch an g e . H o w ev e r , r ecen t re s ea r ch o n p o l it ic a l le a r n i n g ,

p u b l i c p ol icy , an d s o c i a l m o v e m en t s h a s em p l o y e d re f lex i v e mo d e l s o f ag en cy an d

r e s o u r ce mo d e l s o f s t r u c t u r e . F o r ex amp l e , i n an a l y s e s o f p o l i t i c a l l e a r n i n g an d

d emo cr a t i za t i o n , s ch o l a r s h av e d r aw n o n a r e f l ex i v e mo d e l o f ag en cy b y emp h a -

s i z ing how "cogn i t i ve change" and the ab i l i t y o f ac to r s t o r edef ine t he i r i n t e res t s

an d g o a l s can h e l p ex p l a i n t r an s i t i o n s t o d emo cr acy ( B e r meo 1 9 9 2 ; H i g l ey an d



26 Studies in Com parative International Development Summ er 1999

Gu nther 1992 ; Mc Co y 1999 ; Weffo r t 1989). In w ork on the in te rac t ion o f po l icy

ideas and s tate ins ti tu t ions, scho lars have em ploy ed a resource m ode l o f s t ruc tu re

by v iew ing ins ti tu tiona l s t ruc tu res as s it es fo r agenc y tha t can po ten t ia l ly s t imu-la te innovat ion and insp i re c rea t iv i ty (Hal l 1992 , Thelen and S te inmo 1992) . A

resource m odel o f s t ruc tu re has a l so been u t i l i zed by s tuden ts o f soc ia l m ove me nts

w ho v iew cu l tu re as a reper to i re o f id ioms and sym bols f rom w hich po l i ti ca l en tre -

p ren eu r s d ev i s e "c o l l ec t i v e ac t i o n f r am es " t o m o b i l i ze s u p p o r t (T a r ro w 1 99 2;

McAdam, Tarrow, and T i l ly 1997) . These d iverse examples sugges t how compo-

nen ts o f the in teg ra t ive concep tua l base sk e tched ear l i e r can be used in em pi r ica l

ana lys is . Works such as these shou ld o f fe r f ru i tfu l in s igh ts fo r s tuden ts o f reg im e

change seek ing to use an in teg ra t ive concep tua l base as a foundat ion fo r fu tu re

integrat ive s t rategies .

The cha l lenge o f deve lop ing an in teg ra t ive concep tua l base ra i ses the b roaderq u es t io n o f t h e p o t en ti a l co n t ri b u ti o n o f m e t a - t h eo ry - -o r " t h eo ry ab o u t t h e o r y " -

to des ign ing research s t ra teg ies fo r comp ara t ive ana lys is . Com para t iv is t s have o f -

ten no t been se l f -consc ious abou t impor tan t meta- theore t ica l i s sues , such as the

u n d e r l y i n g co n cep t u a l fo u n d a t i o n s o f t h e i r an a l y s e s (L i ch b ach an d Z u ck e rm an

1997). O ne cou ld a rgue tha t th i s l ack o f awaren ess i s o f l i tt l e conce rn , s ince meta-

theore t ica l commitments do no t necessar i ly de te rmine the subs tan t ive con ten t o f

theor ies . We ag ree tha t purely me ta- theore t ica l d i scuss ions do indeed r i sk becom -

ing "dead ends" (Skocpo l 1987) .

How ever , ou r ana lys i s o f vo lun tari s t, s t ruc tu ra l , and in teg ra tive approaches re -

vea l s tha t in s tud ies o f reg ime ch ange m eta- theore t ica l as sumpt ions have s t rong lys h ap ed t h e co n t en t o f em p i r i ca l an a l y s i s : d i v e rg en t co n cep t i o n s o f ag en cy an d

s t ruc tu re have led scho lars to e m phas ize very d i f fe ren t fac to rs in t ack l ing s im i la r

emp i r ica l puzz les . As w e have a t tempted to show, in a reas o f subs tan t ive research

charac te r ized by d iverse , compe t ing approaches , m eta- theore t ica l too ls o f fe r pow -

e r fu l re s o u rces fo r u n d e r s t an d i n g t h e l o g i c s o f t h e s e ap p ro ach es an d c l a r ify i n g

the i r b iases, C ompara t iv i s t s cou ld benef i t s ign i f ican t ly f rom grea te r sens i tiv i ty to

meta- theory , p rov id ing th i s sens i t iv i ty i s l inked c lose ly to em pi r ica l work .

The spec i f ic top ic o f th i s a r t i c le - - the agen t -s t ruc tu re p rob lem in the s tudy o f

r eg i m e ch an g e - - s u g g es t s an ev en m o re s i g n i f i can t ad v an t ag e t h a t m e t a - t h eo ry

cou ld o f fe r : concep tua l too ls fo r mak ing ba lanc ed assessmen ts o f poss ib il it i es fo rdem ocra t ic chang e tha t transcend bo th the fa ta l i sm o f s t ruc tu ra l perspec t ives and

the na ive op t imism o f vo lun tar i s t ones . We have a t tempted to sho w ho w such too ls

can be used to cons t ruc t an in teg ra t ive concep tua l base tha t g ives a rea l is t i c v iew

of the po ten t ia l fo r ac to rs to t rans fo rm po l i t i ca l sys tems . Rather than lead ing to

dead en ds , meta- theory m ay p rov ide the bes t van tage po in t fo r deve lop ing rea l is t i c

theor ies o f po l i t i ca l change tha t ne i ther exaggera te nor underes t imate the poss i -

b i l it i es o f hu m an agency .

No t e s

St r uc tu ra l a na lyse s a r e a s soc i a t e d m o s t s t r ong ly w i th t he de pe nd e nc y t r a d i ti on a nd a t t e m pt t o

e xp la in t he r is e o f a u thor i ta r i a n r e g im e s i n t he 1960s a nd 1970s . Se e , f o r e xa m ple , O ' D onn e l l

( 1973) a nd Sc hm i t t e r ( 1974). Se ve r a l e xe m pla r y s t r uc tu r a l a na lyse s , how e ve r , f a ll c h r ono log i -

c a l l y ou t s ide t h i s ge ne r a t ion . Se e , f o r e xa m ple , M oor e ( 1966) a nd L u e bbe r t ( 1991).




2 . V o l un t a r i s t a na l yse s a r e a s soc i a t e d w i t h t he l i t e r a t u r e on t r a ns i t ions t o de moc r a c y i n L a t i n

A m e r i c a a nd S ou t he r n E ur ope i n t he 1970s a nd 1980s . S e e O ' D on ne l l , S c hmi t t e r , a nd W hi t e -

he a d ( 1986) a nd e spe c i a l l y O ' D on ne l l a nd S c hm i t t e r ( 1986) . S e e a l so Ma l l oy a nd S e l i gson

(1987) , Ba loyra (1987) , Di Pa lma (1990) , Bova (1991) , and Hunte r (1995) .3 . T h i s p r e sc ri p t i on c o r r e sponds t o t he st a nda r d me t ho do l og i c a l a dv i c e tha t w he n t w o r i va l a p -

p r oa c he s t o t he s a me sub j e c t ma t t e r c ompe t e f o r s c ho l a r s ' a t t e n t i on , i t i s a good p r a c t i c e t o

de s i gn r e se a r c h s t r a t e g i e s t ha t e xa mi ne t he t w o a ppr oa c he s s i mul t a ne ous l y . S e e Cha mbe r l i n

( 1965) .

O n t he a ge n t - s t r uc tu r e p r ob l e m se e A l m ond a nd G e n c o ( 1977), A l e xa n de r e t al . (1987) , Bour d i e u

(1977) , Giddens (1984) , Bhaskar (1979) , Sewel l (1992) , and Wendt (1987) .

T h e t e r m s " o v e r s o c i a li z e d " a n d " u n d e r s o c i a l i z ed " a r e f r o m G r a n o v e t t e r ( 1 98 5 ) a n d W r o n g

( 1961) .

O n t he d i s t i nc t ion be t w e e n c ons t r a i n t and ge ne r a t i ve mod e l s o f s t r uc tu r e s e e Bh a ska r ( 1979 ,

53- 55) a nd W e nd t ( 1987 , 346- 47). F o r d i s c us s i on s o f a l t e r na t ive c onc e p t ua l i z a t ions o f soc i a l

s t ruc ture see Sewel l (1992) and Manicas (1980) .

7 . O ' D onn e l l a nd S c hm i t t e r ( 1986 , 18 - 19) d i s t i ngu i sh be t w e e n t r ans i t i ons f r om a u t hor i t a r ia n i smand t rans i t ions to a u t hor i t a ri a n i sm, a r gu i ng t ha t vo l un t a r i s t a ppr oa c he s a r e m or e su i t a b l e fo r

a na l yz i ng t he f o r me r .

8 . A t h i r d , i n t e g r at i ve c onc e p t ua l ba se i s d i s c us se d in t he c onc l us i on .

9 . O n t he mi c r o - m a c r o d i s t i nc ti on , s e e A l e x a nde r e t a l . ( 1987) .

10 . T he i de a o f a " f unne l o f c a usa l i ty" is f ound i n Ca m pbe l l e t a l . (1960 , 24 - 32) . Ca m pbe l l e t a l .

u se t he f unne l t o e x p l a i n vo t i ng be ha v i o r .

11 . O n c a usa l mo de l s a nd me t a phor s , s e e H a a s ( 1983).

12 . T he m os t no t a b l e a pp l i c a t ions o f t he funne l s t r a t egy a r e by S t e pa n ( 1978), L e ps i us ( 1978) , a nd

L e v i ne ( 1978).

13 . S e e a l so S t e pa n ( 197 l , c hs . 6 -9 ) .

14 . A l m ond a nd M und t ' s u sa ge he re o f the t e rms "ne c e s sa r y" a nd " su f f ic i e n t " i s mi s l e a d i ng . I f

s t ruc tura l condi t ions a re necessary c ond i t i ons o f c ha nge , t he n i t i s l og i c a l l y i nc ons i s t e n t fo rc ho i c e s t o be su f f ic i e n t c ond i t i ons o f c ha nge . Ra t he r , s t r uc tu r a l f a c to r s a nd c ho i c e s m us t bo t h

be ne c e s sa r y c a use s .

15 . O n c oun t e r f a c t ua l s i n t he soc i a l s c ie nc e s , s e e F e a r on ( 1991) a nd T e t l oc k a nd Be l k i n ( 1996).

16. He re the authors fo l low Hir sch m an (1971).

17 . T he l a be l "pa t h - de pe nde nc e " i s f r om D a v i d ( 1985 , 332- 37). S e e a l so A r t hu r ( 1994) , P i e r son

( 1997), a nd M a hone y ( 1997) . O n "c r i t i c a l j unc t u r e s , " s e e Co l l i e r a nd C o l l i e r (1991 , e sp . c ha p .

1).

18 . T he t e r m "d e s t i ne d pa t hw a ys" i s f rom F u l b r ook a nd S koc po l (1984).

19. The phra se "de l ive re r of the inevi table " i s f rom Ar thu r (1994, 27) .

20 . F o r e xa m pl e s o f po l i t i c a l i n s t it u t i ons s e e F i gur e 3.

21. Th e len and Ste inmo (1992, 10); Kra sner (1988).

22 . O n "c o ns t a n t c a uses , " s e e Co l l i e r a nd Co l l i e r ( 1991, 35 - 38).23 . O n punc t ua t e d - e qu i l i b r i um mode l s a nd i ns t it u t iona l de t e r mi n i sm, s e e T he l e n a nd S t e i nm o (1992 ,

15-17) .

24 . O n "ge n e r a t i ve c l e a v a ge s" s e e Co l l i e r a nd Co l l i e r ( 1991, 30 ).

25 . A s Mu nc k ( 1992- 93 , 227) r e ma r ks in h i s r evze w o f Capitahst Development and Democracy," t he ba s i c f r a me w or k i s t ha t ou t l i ne d by Ba r r i ng t on Moor e e xpa nde d t o i nc l ude t he w or k i ng

c l a s s . "

26 . I n a dd i t i on t o soc i a l c la s se s , t he a u t hor s c ons i de r s t a te a nd t r a nsna t i ona l s t ruc t u r es ( pp . 63 - 75) .

H ow e ve r , t he y a c kno w l e dge t ha t soc i a l c l a s s i s t he "m a s t e r ke y" t o t he i r a na l ys i s (p . 5 ).

27 . I n c ha p t e r f ive on L a t i n A me r i c a , how e ve r , po l i ti c a l pa r t y f o r ma t i on p l a ys a c e n t r a l r o l e i n t he

a na l ys i s . T h i s c ha p t e r, a s w e l l a s a n e a r l i e r a r t i c l e on w h i c h i t i s ba se d , f i t s mo r e c l ose l y ou r

c r i t e r i a fo r a n i n t e g r at i ve , pa t h - de pe nd e n t s t r a te gy . S e e H ube r S t e phe ns ( 1989).

28 . S i m i l a r c r i t ique s a re ma de i n H ube r S t e phe ns ( 1989 , 331- 32) a nd Re m me r (1991 , 485) .29 . S e e Mun c k ' s ( 1994 , 357) c r it i que o f H un t i ng t on ' s e c l ec t i c i sm.

3 0 . S e e , f o r e x a m p l e , S n y d e r ( 1 9 9 8 ), w h i c h u s e s a m o d i f i e d fu n n e l s t r a t e g y to i n t e g r a te i n -

s i g h t s f ro m s t r u c t u r a l is t t h e o ri e s o f r e v o l u t i o n w i t h i n s i g h t s f r o m v o l u n t a r i s t w o r k o n r e -

g i m e t r a n s i t i o n s .

4.

5.

6 .



28 Studies in Com parative Internationa l Development / Summ er 1999

31 . O ur d i s c us s i on o f a l t e r na t ive c onc e p t i ons o f s t ruc t u r e a nd a ge nc y d r a w s on Bha sk a r ( 1979),

D e ss l e r (1989), E m i r ba ye r a nd M i sc he ( 1998), E m i r ba ye r a nd G oo dw i n ( 1994), G i dde ns ( 1984),

Sew el l (1992) , Sko cpo l (1985) , Sw idle r (1986) , and W endt (1987).

R e f e r e n c e s

A L E X A N D E R , J E F F R E Y C ., B E R N H A R D G I ES E N , R I C H A R D M U N C H A N D N E l L J,

S M E L S E R , E D S .

1987 The Mic ro- Mac ro L ink . Be r ke l e y : U n i ve r s i ty o f Ca l i f o r n i a P r e s s .

A L M O N D , G A B R I E L A .

1973 A pp r oa c he s t o de ve l opm e n t a l c a usa t i on . I n Crisis, Choice, an d Change: H istor ical

S tud i e s o f P o l i ti c a l D e v e lopm e nt , e ds . G a br i e l A . A l mon d , S c o t t C . F l a na ga n a nd

Robe r t J . Mund t . Bos t on : L i t t l e , B r ow n a nd Compa ny .

A L M O N D , G A B R I E L A . , S C O T F C . F L A N A G A N A N D R O B E R T J. M U N D T , E D S.1973 Cris is , Choice , and Change: His tor ical Studies o f Pol i t ical Deve lopm ent . Bos t on :

L i t t l e , B r ow n a nd Compa ny .

A L M O N D , G A B R I E L A . A N D R O B E R T J . M U N D T

1973 Cr is i s , choice , and change : Som e tenta t ive conc lus ions . In Crisis, Choice, and

Change: His tor ical Studies of Pol i tical Deve lo pm ent , e ds . G a br i e l A . A l mo nd , S c o t t

C . F l a na ga n a nd Ro be r t J. Mund t . Bos t on : L i t t le , B r ow n a nd Com pa ny .

A L M O N D , G A B R I E L A . A N D S T E P H E N J . G E N C O

1977 C l ouds , c l oc ks , a nd t he s t udy o f po l i t i c s. World Poli t ics 29: 489-522.

A M I N Z A D E , R O N A L D

1992 H i s t o r i c a l soc i o l o gy a nd t i me . Soc io log i c a l Me thods and R e se arc h 20: 456-480.

A R T H U R , W . B R I A N .

1994 I nc re asing R e turns and P a th D e pe nde nc e i n t he E c onom y . A nn A r bor : U n i ve r s i t y o fMi c h i ga n P r e s s .

B A L O Y R A , E N R I Q U E , E D .

1987 Com paring New Dem ocracies: Transit ion and Consolidat ion in Med i terranean Eu-

rope and the Sou the rn Cone . Boul de r , CO : W e s t v i e w P r e s s .

B E R M E O , N A N C Y

1990 Re t h i nk i ng r e g i me c ha nge . Comparat ive Pol i t ics 22: 359-377.

1992 D e m oc r a c y a nd t he l e s sons o f d i c t a to r sh i p . Comparat ive Pol i t ics 24: 273-292.

B H A S K A R , R O Y

1979 The Poss tbi l i ty of Natural i sm. Br i gh t on , U .K . : H a r ve s t e r P r e s s.

B O U R D I E U , P I E R R E

1977 O ut l ine o f a The ory o f P rac t i c e . Ca mbr i dge : Ca mbr i dge U n i ve r s i t y P r e s s .

B O V A , R U S S E L L1991 P o l i t i c a l dyna mi c s o f t he pos t - c om mu ni s t t r a ns i ti on : A c om pa r a t i ve pe r spe c t i ve . I n

Liberal i zat ion and Democrat t zat ion: Change in the Sov ie t Union and Eastern Europe ,

e d . N a nc y Be r me o . Ba l t i mor e : Johns H o pk i ns .

C A M P B E L L , A N G U S , P H I L IP E . C O N V E R S E , W A R R E N E . M I L L E R A N D D O N A L D E .

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1960 The American Voter . New York: John Wiley.

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1993 T he c om pa r a t i ve me t hod . I n Pol i t ical Sc ience: The S tate o f the Disc ipl ine , e d . A d a W .

F i n i f te r . Wa sh i ng t on , D .C . : A m e r i c a n P o l i t i c a l S c i e nc e A ssoc i a t i on .

C O L L I E R , R U T H B E R I N S A N D D A V I D C O L L I E R1991 Shaping the Pol i t ical Arena: Cri tw al Junctures, the Labor Mo vement , an d Regime dy-

nam ic s i n La t in A m e rwa. Pr ince ton: Pr ince ton Univers i ty Press .

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1973 N a t i on bm l d i ng , pa r t i c i pa ti on , a nd d i s t ri bu t i on : T he po l i t i c s o f soc i a l r e f o r m unde r




C ~ d e n a s . I n Crisis , C hoice, and Change: Historical Studies o f Political

De v e lopme nt , e ds . G a br i e l A . A l mo nd , S c o t t C . F l a na g a n , a nd Rob e r t J. M und t .

Bos t on : L i t t l e , B r ow n a nd Compa ny .

D A V I D , P A U L A .1985 C l i o a nd t he e c onom i c s o f Q WE RT Y . Ame r ic an Ec onomic Re v ie w 75: 332-337.

D E S S L E R , D A V I D

1989 W ha t 's a t stake in the agent-structure deba te? International Organization 43: 441-473.

1991 Be yo nd c o r r e l a ti ons : T ow a r d a c a usa l t he o r y o f w a r. International Stud ies Quarterly

35: 337-355.

D I P A L M A , G I U S E P P E

1990 To Craft Democrac ies: An Essay o n Dem ocrat ic Trans it ions . Be r ke l e y : U n i ve r s i t y o f

Ca l i f o r n i a P r e s s .

D I A M O N D , L A R RY , J U A N J . L IN Z A N D S E Y M O U R M A R T I N L I PS E T , E D S .

1988- 1989 Democracy in Deve loping Countr ies . f ou r vo l ume s . Bou l de r : L ynne R i e nne r .

1990 I n t r oduc t ion : Com pa r i ng E xpe r i e nc e s w i t h de moc r a c y . I n Pohtics in Developing Coun-

tries: Com paring Exper iences with Dem ocracy , e ds . L a r r y D i a mond , Jua n J . L i nz a ndS e ymour Ma r t i n L i pse t . Bou l de r : L ynne R i e nne r .

E L D R E D G E , N I L E S

1985 l im e Frames: The Rethink ing o f Darw inian Evolution and the Theory , of Punctua ted

Equilibria. New York: S imon & Schuste r .

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1994 N e t w o r k a na l ys i s , c u l t u re , a nd t he p r ob l e m o f a ge nc y . Am erican Jou rnal o f Soc iology

99: 1411-1454.

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1998 . W ha t i s a ge nc y? Ame r ic an J ourna l o f Soc io logy 103 : 962- 1023 .F E A R O N , J A M E S D .

1991 Counteffactuals and hyp othesis testing in poli t ical science. Worm Politics 43 : 169- 195 .

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in historical sociology, e d . T he da S koc po l . Ca mbr i dge : Ca mbr i dge U n i ve r s i t y P r e s s .

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1985 Ca se s t ud i e s a nd t he o r ie s o f o r ga n i z a t i ona l de c i s i on ma k i ng . Advances in Information

Processing in Organizations. Vol . 2 . Santa Barbara : JAI Press .

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P o l i t y P r e s s .

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1982 T he me a n i ng o f punc t ua t e d e qu i l i b r ium, a nd i t s r o l e i n va l i da t i ng a h i s t o r i c a l a ppr oa c h

t o ma c r oe vo l u t i on . In Perspectives On Evolution, e d . Roge r Mi l kma n . S ou t he r l a nd ,

Mass . : S inauer .G R A N O V E T T E R , M A R K

1985 E c ono mi c a c t i on a nd soc i a l s t ruc t u re : T he p r ob l e m o f e mb e dde dne ss . American Jour-

nal of Soc iology 91: 485-510.G R I F F I N , L A R R Y J .

1992 Tem pora l i ty , events , and exp lana t ion m his tor ica l soc io logy : An in troducUon. Socio-

logical M ethods and Research 20: 403-427.H A A S , E R N S T B .

1983 Wo r ds c a n hu r t you ; o r, w ho sa i d w ha t t o w hom a bou t r e g i me s . I n Internat ional Re-

gimes , ed. S t e phe n D . K r a sne r . It ha c a : Cor ne l l U nw e r s i t y P r e s s.H A L L , P E T E R A .

1992 T he mov e me n t f r om K e yn e s i a n i sm t o mon e t a r i sm: I ns t i tu t i ona l a na l ys i s a nd Br i t i sh

e c onom i c po l i c y in t he 1970s. I n Structuring Politics: Historical Institutionalism mComparative Analysis, e ds . S ve n S t e mmo, K a t h l e e n T he l e n a nd F r a nk L ongs t r e t h .

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