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RESTRUCTURING FOR STRATEGIC GROWTH Dr. Joachim Behrendt

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Restructuring Strategic Growth 18.03.10

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  • RESTRUCTURING FOR STRATEGIC GROWTHDr. Joachim Behrendt

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 2Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 3Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NS&P 500 / FTSE 100 / Hang Seng

    After the subprime crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the meltdown of the world financial system could only be avoided by concerted and strong action of central banks and governments

    In addition to putting interest rates close to 0, central banks pumped liquidity at a previously unknown pace into the economy (quantitative easing), governments rescued failing banks, and accounting rules for banks were changed

    The world financial crisis was followed by a deep world recession, simultaneously effecting nearly all countries and all sectors

    To speed up the recovery process, governments implemented fiscal stimulus packages for supporting private consumption and exports

    Since first quarter of 2009, stock markets and business confidence started to recover

    3/22/2010 4Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Source: FT / Thomson Reuters

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NGold / VIX / Employment

    Gold, traditionally a safe haven in times of high economic uncertainty, remains at an all-time high

    The VIX volatily index, Wall streets fear gauge, is still very volatile, and has risen again 36% since 19.1.2010, while the Baltic Dry Index fell 20% since then

    Companies returned to profitability in 2009 mainly due to strict cost and capacity cutting

    Consequently, unemployment rates are rising, depressing a consumption-based economic recovery

    Fiscal stimulus effects are coming to an end, putting further pressure on consumption

    3/22/2010 5Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Source: FT / Thomson Reuters / I-Spirit

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NEconomic Outlook Europe

    3/22/2010 6Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    The economic outlook remains patchy, governmental debt comes into the spotlight

    The underlying reasons of the financial crisis, excess liquidity and a loose regulatory framework, have only partly been tackled; cheap liquidity is still provided by central banks and governments

    In the mid run, central banks will have to take liquidity out of the markets in order to counteract upcoming inflationary trends

    In the mid run, increased government debt has to be repaid, again decreasing liquidity

    Currently, financial markets take again the same medicine that made them ill

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NA New Economic Environment Some Hypotheses

    1. The recovery of the stock markets is driven by yield-searching liquidity, and it is not fully reflecting economic reality. Higher company valuations are partly based on higher earnings, but they are mainly the result of cost cuttings and not of a demand- and sales-driven growth ("zero-job growth").

    2. The worst of the crisis seems to be over, but the effects of upcoming inflationary pressures, governmental debt burdens and the resulting liquidity reductions and austerity measures are currently not priced in. In general, the road to recovery will be long, slow and patchy.

    3. Economic recovery will occur faster in developing economies, especially in countries that have healthy budgets and balances of payments, and that are rich in commodities. USA will follow, Western Europe will be at the end of the train.

    4. Companies and governments are using the current situation to borrow longterm for cheap. On the other hand, these additional funds available will lead to an increased pressure for profitable investments and, among others, increased M&A activities.

    5. The current crisis marks the beginning of the end of the dominating economic position of the Western World, and of the outstanding role of the US-$ as the global reserve currency.

    3/22/2010 7Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NEconomic Indicators Turkey

    Economic discussions are currently dominated by policy uncertainties and an upcoming election year

    Ending the discussions with the IMF on a standby agreement had virtually no effect, treasury could comfortably meet its borrowing requirements

    After recent rating upgrades, Turkey is on the way to become an investment grade country

    Inflationary pressures increased but can probably be well maintained in the upcoming months

    Production is on its way back to sustainable growth, currently mainly domestic-driven (chemical goods, agriculture, but not automotive, metals)

    Inflation and production growth increase the pressure on the Central Bank to increase interest rates in the next months, yield curve is steepening

    Economic recovery helped to increase the tax income, main fiscal risk factor is election spending

    Exports and imports started to recover, balance of payments currently under control

    Compared to other countries, Turkey could maintain and even improve its relative stability

    3/22/2010 8Restructuring for Strategic GrowthSource: Turkstat, ISE, ING Bank

  • FIN

    AN

    CIA

    LC

    RISIS

    & W

    OR

    LDR

    ECESSIO

    NKey Indicator Forecasts (Turkey)

    3/22/2010 9Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Sources: Turkstat, CBT, Treasury, Ministry of Finance, ING Bank , ING Global Forecasts

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 10Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • A Z

    ERO

    -BA

    SEA

    PP

    RO

    AC

    HTurkish Textile Industry

    In 2008, the Turkish textile sector was hit hardest in terms of production cuts. In 2009, clothing experienced a modest recovery relative to other sectors

    Capacity usage, on the other hand, remained virutally unchanged probably due to heavy capacity cuts

    More than 150,000 people lost their jobs in textile and clothing sector in the last year

    Textile companies started applying for short working hours, supported by IKur

    Textile exports have dropped by 30% -but not more than other sectors

    However, in 2009, prices in the sector have dropped by more than 5%, showing increased pricing pressure

    On the other hand, companies in the sector have used the crisis for successful restructuring, and for expanding into foreign markets

    3/22/2010 11Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Source: DPT, Ekonomik Gelismeler, Eyll 2009

  • A Z

    ERO

    -BA

    SEA

    PP

    RO

    AC

    HImplications for Textile Businesses

    3/22/2010 12

    Strategic Challenges

    Bank loans expensive

    and difficult to obtain Sector

    remains under-

    capitalized, growth difficult

    Pressure on informal

    parts of the sector will increase

    Sales will remain

    suppressed for some

    time

    Significant Overcapa-

    cities in the sector

    Change of regional demand patterns

    (US, Europe vs. Asia)

    Strong price pressure , especially from Asian countries

    Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • A Z

    ERO

    -BA

    SEA

    PP

    RO

    AC

    HThe Risk of Strategic Drift

    3/22/2010 13Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Phase 1: Incremental strategy changes gradually moving away from environmental changes

    (e.g. victim of own success)

    Phase 2: Strategic drift becomes apparent, or environmental change increases no clear

    strategy direction, fluxx

    Phase 3: Transformational change to adopt to new environment but late and costly

    Phase 4: Alternatively, demise of the organization

    Target: Phase 5 early transformational change ahead of environmental change

    Source: Johnson / Scholes, Exploring Corporate Strategy

  • A Z

    ERO

    -BA

    SEA

    PP

    RO

    AC

    HZero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    Zero-Base Strategy Development

    Question your markets and target customers

    Question your products and services

    Question your pricing and quality strategy

    Question scope and structure of your value chains

    Question your existing production capacities

    Question your workforce

    Question your management and organizational structure

    Imagine you could set up your business from scratch

    3/22/2010 14Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Zero-based budgeting is a technique of planning and decision-making which reverses the working process of traditional budgeting. In traditional incremental budgeting, departmental managers justify only increases over the previous year budget and what has been already spent is automatically sanctioned. By contrast, in zero-based budgeting, every department function is reviewed comprehensively and all expenditures must be approved, rather than only increases. Zero-based budgeting requires the budget request be justified in complete detail by each division manager starting from the zero-base.

    (Source: Wikipedia)

  • A Z

    ERO

    -BA

    SEA

    PP

    RO

    AC

    HStrategy Development Phases

    Analysis of the environment: Opportunities and threats

    Analysis of strategic capabilities: Strengths and weaknesses

    Analysis of relevant stakeholder groups and their expecations

    Phase 1:Strategic Analysis

    Definition of the framework for strategic choice (scope of activities, markets, geographical scope, ownership structure, finances, etc.)

    Development of strategic options

    Evaluation and selection of strategic options

    Phase 2:Strategic Choice

    Organizational structure

    Resource allocation

    Resource control

    Management of strategic change

    Phase 3:Strategy

    Implementation

    3/22/2010 15Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 16Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • 23

    Detailed Statistics by StoresQuarterly Averages of Visitors (1)

    Champ

    Quarter Aks. Ere. Mer. Mal. Umr. Sis. KC-1 KC-2 KC-3 Ave.

    09:00-09:14 2,5 1,8 2,2 3,7 1,9 2,9 1,0 0,4 1,1 1,9

    09:15-09:29 2,6 2,4 2,6 4,5 1,8 1,6 1,1 0,5 0,8 2,0

    09:30-09:44 3,1 2,7 3,0 4,6 1,9 1,7 1,3 0,6 1,0 2,2

    09:45-09:59 3,1 2,9 3,6 6,0 1,7 2,8 1,6 0,3 1,3 2,6

    10:00-10:14 3,6 3,3 4,0 6,5 1,3 2,3 1,3 0,6 0,9 2,7

    10:15-10:29 4,1 3,2 3,5 7,5 1,4 2,6 1,2 0,6 1,5 2,9

    10:30-10:44 4,6 3,2 3,1 6,8 1,8 3,2 1,6 0,9 1,3 3,0

    10:45-10:59 4,0 3,3 4,2 8,1 1,6 3,1 1,7 0,7 1,1 3,1

    11:00-11:14 4,8 3,4 3,9 9,1 2,1 3,6 1,9 0,9 1,6 3,5

    11:15-11:29 4,8 3,4 2,9 8,8 2,1 3,8 1,9 1,0 1,5 3,4

    11:30-11:44 4,7 3,6 4,3 9,8 2,8 4,5 1,9 0,9 1,7 3,8

    11:45-11:59 6,5 3,0 5,3 9,5 2,9 3,5 2,0 0,9 1,7 3,9

    12:00-12:14 6,4 4,5 5,9 11,3 3,2 3,9 2,3 0,7 2,1 4,5

    12:15-12:29 8,6 3,7 6,0 13,7 2,8 5,7 1,8 0,8 1,5 5,0

    12:30-12:44 6,6 3,4 6,5 13,4 2,4 8,1 3,4 1,1 2,2 5,2

    12:45-12:59 6,9 3,4 7,1 14,5 4,1 6,2 3,0 1,6 2,2 5,5

    13:00-13:14 7,4 4,1 5,3 14,1 4,4 5,7 3,9 1,5 2,1 5,4

    13:15-13:29 6,8 4,4 6,3 15,1 4,2 6,1 4,0 1,9 2,1 5,7

    13:30-13:44 6,5 4,4 6,3 15,2 4,6 6,1 3,1 1,5 2,1 5,5

    13:45-13:59 7,1 3,4 6,3 13,3 3,8 6,1 3,5 1,8 1,6 5,2

    14:00-14:14 9,8 3,8 7,0 13,6 3,9 8,1 3,3 1,4 2,1 5,9

    14:15-14:29 8,4 3,8 6,0 11,6 3,7 7,3 2,9 1,9 2,4 5,3

    14:30-14:44 9,2 3,6 6,5 13,8 3,7 9,3 2,9 1,5 2,2 5,8

    14:45-14:59 8,2 3,6 5,0 14,2 3,6 6,9 2,8 1,3 2,2 5,3

    15:00-15:14 8,5 3,4 6,6 12,2 4,0 6,1 3,0 1,7 2,1 5,2

    15:15-15:29 6,6 3,9 6,8 15,4 4,1 7,6 3,8 2,0 2,4 5,7

    BimCarrefour ExpMigros

    STR

    ATEG

    ICA

    NA

    LYSIS

    & O

    PTIO

    NS

    Analysis Example: Market Research Retail

    3/22/2010 17Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Strategic analysis is looking from

    customer market perspective

    Key to strategic analysis: comprehensive

    market research

    Example: Shopper Trends (Nielsen)

    Example: Market research for

    number of store visitors and daily

    distribution according to age and

    gender (nexum / Akademetre)

    11

    General Statistics by MarketsDaily Distribution of Visitors

    6.0

    11

    6.0

    29

    2.2

    19

    2.5

    97

    6.2

    08

    5.4

    97

    2.5

    01

    2.0

    98

    5.8

    44

    5.8

    00

    2.4

    70

    2.0

    50

    5.8

    73

    3.9

    87

    2.4

    82

    2.1

    05

    5.7

    07

    4.6

    80

    2.4

    48

    2.2

    09

    7.5

    63

    7.2

    19

    4.1

    27

    2.6

    03

    7.6

    28

    3.5

    71

    2.3

    10

    8.8

    54

    0

    1.000

    2.000

    3.000

    4.000

    5.000

    6.000

    7.000

    8.000

    9.000

    Migros Carrefour Exp ChampionSA Bim

    Market

    Nu

    mb

    er o

    f V

    isit

    ors

    15.01.07 16.01.07 17.01.07 18.01.07 19.01.07 20.01.07 21.01.07

    6

    M Migros / Erenkoy

    AkademetreCurrent Views of the Stores

    BIM / K.Cekmece-1

    BIM / K.Cekmece-2

    BIM / K.Cekmece-3

    Carrefour Express / Maltepe

    ChampionSA / Sisli

    Carrefour Express / Umraniye MM Migros / Aksaray

    MMM Migros / Merter

  • STR

    ATEG

    ICA

    NA

    LYSIS

    & O

    PTIO

    NS

    SWOT Analysis Textile Industry

    3/22/2010 18Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Developed market infrastructure

    Ability to adopt new technologies & trends

    Adoptation of EU standards

    (e.g. environment)

    Developed sectoral labor force

    Entrepreneurial spirit

    Abundance raw materials (e.g. cotton)

    Modern machinery & equipment

    Elasticity and flexibility

    Input costs, especially labour & energy

    Insufficient proprietary / venture capital

    Deficiencies cash / financial management

    Lack of access to distribution channels

    Large informal market segments

    Lack of R&D & established quality control

    Burdensome bureaucracy, insufficient

    legal infrastructure & copyright protection

    Insufficient process & IT management

    Price competition China / other

    Asian countries

    Taxation / Export-import legislation

    Political instability foreign relations

    Lack of resources

    Restrictions on free trade

    Development of EU relations

    Scarce, expensive, short-term financing

    Overvalued currency

    Geographical proximity to EU, Middle East

    and ex-Soviet countries

    Developing relationships regional countries

    Increasing opportunities to penetrate new

    markets due to quota removals

    Small-scale production support exclusive

    demand

    Turquality

    Absorb job losses from developed countries

    ST

    RE

    NG

    TH

    S

    Source: Kocak, A.M., Turkey in

    Transition, January 2006; Own

    research

    Outside-inn view: Markets

    Inside-out view: Resources

  • STR

    ATEG

    ICA

    NA

    LYSIS

    & O

    PTIO

    NS

    Options for Strategic Growth

    3/22/2010 19Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    The growth trap

    Customer focus is misinterpreted as

    serving all customer needs

    Growth pressure or the apparent

    saturation of the target market often lead

    managers to broaden the companys

    strategic position

    Too often efforts to grow may undermine

    the strategy by blurring uniqueness,

    Rather deepen the strategic position than

    broadening and compromising it

    Ways to grow

    Internal development

    Acquisition

    Joint venture / alliancesSource: Johnson / Scholes, Exploring Corporate Strategy

  • STR

    ATEG

    ICA

    NA

    LYSIS

    & O

    PTIO

    NS

    Ways for Healthy Growth

    Own branding

    Move from contract production to brand ownership

    Examples: Vakko, Mavi, LTB, Collins, Balizza, Mudo (home textiles), ...

    Foreign outlets

    Mainly after domestic branding succeeded, especially Russia / Ex-Soviet countries

    Examples: Mavi, Colins, Bilsar, Kiili, Sarar, Sabra, Sabri zel, Cross Jeans, T-Box, ...

    Foreign investments / subcontracting

    Directly investing in foreign countries, or entering into long-term partnerships

    Examples: Baha Tekstil (Uzbekistan), Atateks (Jordan), ahnler (China etc.), ....

    Differentiation by design influence fashion

    Some companies hired well-known designers, or use top models

    Examples: Vakko, Balizza, Zeki Triko

    3/22/2010 20Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • STR

    ATEG

    ICA

    NA

    LYSIS

    & O

    PTIO

    NS

    Ways for Healthy Growth (contd)

    Subcontracting for international brands

    Production, sometimes distribution for foreign brands

    Examples: Yeim Tekstil (Nike, Banana Republic etc.), Orta Anadolu Group (Levi

    Strauss, Marks&Spencer), etc.

    Technical and functional textiles

    Fields: Agriculture, building technologies, geology, medical uses, ecology, packing

    industry, protective clothing, sportive clothing, ....

    Markets both domestic (e.g. Armed Forces) and foreign (e.g. glass fibers)

    Highly automated integrated production facilities

    Target: shift from labour- to capital-intensive production

    Examples: Bossa Denim, Isko, Gap Gneydou

    3/22/2010 21Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 22Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Strategy Evaluation

    Does the strategy fit with organization and environment?

    Screening and ranking of the available strategic options

    Scenario planning

    Suitability

    Profitability analysis

    Cost-benefit analysis

    Risk analysis: Sensitivity analysis / simulation modelling

    Stakeholder reactions (political dimension)

    Acceptability

    Funds flow analysis / liquidity planning

    Break-even analysis

    Resource deployment analysisFeasibility

    3/22/2010 23Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Suitability: Product Lifecycle Analysis

    3/22/2010 24Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Not every growth strategy fits to every product

    Product lifecycles reduce strategic options

    Source: Johnson / Scholes, Exploring Corporate Strategy

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Suitability: Sustainability of Core Competencies

    3/22/2010 25Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Choice of strategy depends on sustainability of base competencies

    Is the

    competence

    valuable?

    Is the

    competence

    rare?

    Is the

    competence

    difficult to

    imitate?Are there no

    substitutes?

    no

    no

    no

    no

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes

    Yes Yes

    Disadvantage

    Parity

    Temporary

    Advantage

    Incremental

    Advantage

    Sustainable

    Advantage

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Acceptability: Profitability

    3/22/2010 26

    Carve Out Object 1 - Income Statements - Modul 8

    2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

    01-12 01-12 01-12 01-12 01-12 01-12 01-12

    T Ist Ist Budget Planung Planung Planung Planung

    Nettoumsatz 12,150,665 14,278,000 16,183,752 16,624,456 17,300,355 17,973,886 18,649,304

    Wareneinsatz -9,889,251 -11,950,316 -13,539,521 -13,978,107 -14,554,434 -15,160,772 -15,752,529

    Warengruppenspanne 2,261,413 2,327,684 2,644,231 2,646,350 2,745,921 2,813,114 2,896,774

    Nicht kalkulierte Vergtungen 219,045 151,530 150,331 170,741 176,542 182,258 187,715

    Logistikkosten -278,957 -100,380 -180,592 -116,000 -137,227 -129,218 -133,816

    Inventurdifferenzen -42,115 -55,161 -55,548 -57,962 -59,721 -61,539 -63,336

    -102,026 -4,011 -85,810 -3,221 -20,407 -8,499 -9,438

    Rohertrag 2,159,387 2,323,673 2,558,421 2,643,129 2,725,514 2,804,615 2,887,337

    Personalkosten -1,051,694 -1,205,040 -1,301,078 -1,330,691 -1,358,563 -1,392,016 -1,427,982

    Deckungsbeitrag 1 1,107,693 1,118,633 1,257,343 1,312,438 1,366,952 1,412,599 1,459,355

    Abschreibungen -98,219 -102,194 -117,797 -126,572 -128,779 -131,008 -133,242

    Mietkosten -426,140 -461,986 -525,172 -532,194 -549,517 -564,470 -582,105

    Werbung -52,403 20,891 -7,697 -4,860 -3,425 -1,945 -452

    Instandhaltung -63,250 -76,341 -118,249 -84,937 -90,980 -93,232 -95,882

    Materialverbrauch -28,603 -38,170 -36,867 -35,258 -36,109 -36,976 -37,860

    Fuhrpark -165,139 -199,014 -225,613 -232,735 -236,818 -245,003 -255,888

    Sonstige Sachkosten/Ertrge -66,385 -88,602 -252,993 -77,902 -78,045 -78,196 -78,350

    Sonstige operative Posten 64,048 16,748 175,802 339 339 339 339

    Operative Kosten -836,091 -928,669 -1,108,586 -1,094,118 -1,123,332 -1,150,490 -1,183,439

    Deckungsbeitrag 2 271,602 189,964 148,758 218,320 243,619 262,109 275,916

    Direktkosten 0 - - -0 -0 -0 0

    Deckungsbeitrag 3 271,602 189,964 148,758 218,320 243,619 262,109 275,916

    Indirekte Kosten -11,305 - - - - - -

    DB 4 - EBITA 260,296 189,964 148,758 218,320 243,619 262,109 275,916

    Bereinigungen/Anpassungen -36,297 -4,400 - - - - -

    Bereinigtes/angepates EBITA 224,000 185,564 148,758 218,320 243,619 262,109 275,916

    Zinsergebnis -13,173 -29,021 -21,655 -23,821 -23,907 -23,996 -24,090

    Beteiligungsergebnis - - - - - - -

    Abschreibungen a.d. FAV - -2,000 - - - - -

    Finanzergebnis -13,173 -31,021 -21,655 -23,821 -23,907 -23,996 -24,090

    Andere auerordentliche Ergebnisse - 984 - - - - -

    Ergebnis vor Ertragsteuern 247,123 159,927 127,103 194,498 219,713 238,113 251,826

    Steuern - - -17 - - - -

    Ergebnis nach Ertragsteuern 247,123 159,927 127,086 194,498 219,713 238,113 251,826

    Kennzahlen (in % des Nettoumsatzes)

    Warengruppenspanne 18.6% 16.3% 16.3% 15.9% 15.9% 15.7% 15.5%

    Rohertrag 17.8% 16.3% 15.8% 15.9% 15.8% 15.6% 15.5%

    Personalkosten 8.7% 8.4% 8.0% 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 7.7%

    Operative Kosten 6.9% 6.5% 6.8% 6.6% 6.5% 6.4% 6.3%

    EBITA 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%

    Wachstumsraten (p.a.)

    Nettoumsatz k.A. 17.5% 13.3% 2.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.8%

    Warengruppenspanne k.A. 2.9% 13.6% 0.1% 3.8% 2.4% 3.0%

    Rohertrag k.A. 7.6% 10.1% 3.3% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9%

    Personalkosten k.A. 14.6% 8.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6%

    Operative Kosten k.A. 11.1% 19.4% -1.3% 2.7% 2.4% 2.9%

    EBITA k.A. -27.0% -21.7% 46.8% 11.6% 7.6% 5.3%

    For each strategic option, detailed financial planning required (business plan)

    Based on detailed business plans, pro-forma financial statements for several periods will be prepared

    Preferred: Preparation of set of integrated set of financial statements with balance sheets, income statements, indirect cash flow statements

    Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Acceptability: Risk Simulation Modelling

    3/22/2010 27Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Frequency Chart

    .0 0 0

    .0 0 7

    .0 1 4

    .0 2 1

    .0 2 8

    0

    7

    1 4

    2 1

    2 8

    -5 0 0 .0 0 -2 5 0 .0 0 0 .0 0 2 5 0 .0 0 5 0 0 .0 0

    1'000 Trials 4 Outliers

    Forecast: F12

    Frequency Chart

    .000

    .007

    .014

    .021

    .028

    0

    7

    14

    21

    28

    -500.00 -250.00 0.00 250.00 500.00

    1'000 Trials 4 Outliers

    Forecast: F12

    Frequency Chart

    .000

    .007

    .014

    .021

    .028

    0

    7

    14

    21

    28

    -500.00 -250.00 0.00 250.00 500.00

    1'000 Trials 4 Outliers

    Forecast: F12

    Strategic option 2

    provides less risk at

    comparable returns

    Market risk

    (quantities / prices)

    Raw material price risk

    Personnel cost risk

    Currency risks

    Interest rate risk

    Risks considered

  • STR

    ATEG

    YE

    VA

    LUA

    TION

    Feasibility: Cash Flow Planning

    3/22/2010 28Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Nakit 10 Satclar 30

    M.Kymetler 0 Avanslar 40

    Alclar 30 B. Kredileri 0

    Stoklar 30 Sermaye 30

    S. Kym. 30

    Toplam 100 Toplam 100

    XYZ Proforma Bilano - 01.01.05

    Aktif Pasif

    Nakit 0.5 Satclar 40

    M.Kymetler 0 Avanslar 50

    Alclar 50 B. Kredileri 15

    Stoklar 40 Sermaye 30

    S. Kym. 60 Donem Kr 15.5

    Toplam 150.5 Toplam 150.5

    XYZ Proforma Bilano - 31.12.05

    Aktif Pasif

    Haslat 100

    SMM 50

    Brut Kar 50

    Sat & Datm Gid. 10

    G. Yn. Gid. 10

    Amortisman 10

    Faaliyet Kr 20

    Finansman 4.5

    Kar 15.5

    XYZ Proforma Gelir Tablosu - 2005

    Brt Kar 50

    Alclardaki Deiim -20

    Stoklardaki Deiim -10

    Satclardaki Deiim 10

    Avanslardaki Deiim 10

    Brt Faaliyet Nakit Akm 40

    Sat & Datm Gid. -10

    Dier F. Giderleri ve Gel. -10

    Amortisman -10

    G. Vergisi 0

    Faaliyet Nak it Akm 10

    S. Kymet Yatrmlar -30

    Yatrm Nak it Akm -30

    Datlan Kar 0

    Sermaye Artrm 0

    Kredi Art/Azal 15

    Faiz Gelir/Giderleri -4.5

    Finansman Nak it Akm 10.5

    Toplam Nakit Akm -9.5

    Nakit Deiimi -9.5

    1.1.2005 tibariyle Nakit 10

    31.12.2005 tibariyle Nakit 0.5

    XYZ - Proforma Nakit Akm Tablosu - 2005

    Integrated pro-forma financial statements for each strategic option

    Liquidity planning is integrated (indirect cash flow statements)

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 29Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    Typical Restructuring Issues Textile Sector

    Insufficient funds, improper financing patterns

    Competition by price

    No investment in market reserach, R&D

    Cost cutting by flight into informal market segments

    Underestimated effects of weaknesses in quality and reliabilty

    Inefficient production, non-optimized processes

    No proper information about cost drivers and profitability products / customers

    Insufficient investments into ERP and other IT systems

    Over-centralized decision making process, lack of professional managers

    3/22/2010 30Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    Restructuring

    31

    Replacing an existing structure with a new one- Debt (or debt-equity) restructuring- Asset restructuring- Operational restructuring- Organizational restructuring- Legal restructuring- ....

    Example: Manufacturing Company 2009- Debt / Equity Structure- Cash Management- Management Accounting- Financial Accounting- Production Planning

    Example: Turkish Textile Company 2009- Organization- HR- Operations- Strategy- Product portfolio

    Example: Retail Group 2008- Legal- Tax- Participations- HR- Assets- Organization

    3/22/2010 Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    Workstream Finance & Legal

    Accounting / controlling, income statement

    Accounting / controlling, balance-sheet related

    Finance / Treasury: Cash man., liquidity planning

    Finance: Debt & equity structure, risk management, banking & investor relations

    Tax: Income taxes, VAT, special consumption taxes, stopaj, wage-based taxes, SSK&Bagkur, special restructuring tax laws

    Legal: corporate law, articles of association, third-party contracts

    Workstream Organization & HR

    Organizational design (functional, divisional, matrix, etc.)

    Organizational chart (management structure, legal structure, profit/cost center structure)

    Employee analysis, legal aspects salaries & remuneration, contractual & legal rights, out-sourced personnel, relation to capacity planning

    Employee analysis, abilities standarizing skill set definitions, standarizing job descriptions, key personnel definition

    Workstream Operations

    Sales: Forecast & scenarios, price sensitivity analysis, customer analysis

    Production: High-level production planning, capacity planning

    Purchasing: MRP, Supplier analysis

    Overhead analysis and allocation system

    Value chain analysis

    Cost behaviour analysis fixed vs. variable cost in relation to time

    Workstream Strategy

    Strategy implemementation planning

    Definition of strategic tasks

    Strategic control

    Change management

    Markets & customers

    Pricing & quality

    Scope and structure of the company value chain

    Financing and investments

    Marketing & PR

    3/22/2010 32

    Each workstream provides different perspectives on the company

    Each workstream is managed separately in each project phaseRestructuring for Strategic Growth

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 33Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • IMP

    LEMEN

    TATIO

    N&

    CO

    NTR

    OL

    Formalized Strategic Planning Process

    Involvement of all managers, individual presentation tasks, weekend / evening sessions

    Start October, completion including budget December 20043/22/2010 34Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    ANALYSIS SECTION

    --------------------------

    1. Introduction

    2. Outside-Inn Analysis: Market

    2.1. Sectoral Customer Markets

    2.2. Consulting Market Turkey

    2.3. HR Market

    3. Inside-Out Analysis: Nexum

    3.1. Sales & Account Management

    3.2. Profitability Analysis

    3.3. Project Management

    4. SWOT analysis nexum bogazici

    5. Branding & Positioning

    5.1. Competitor Analysis NM

    5.2. Competitor Analysis IT

    5.3. Positioning

    6. Our Services 2003

    6.1. New Media Services

    6.2. IT Services

    6.3. Consulting Services

    7. Next Steps

    PLANNING SECTION

    ----------------------------

    1. Competence Center Pharma

    2. Competence Center Tourism

    3. Competence Center Textile

    4. E-Learning Solutions

    5. Consulting Solutions

    6. IT

    7. NM

    8. Overall Project Management & Organization

    9. Overall Marketing Strategy

    10. Overall Sales Strategy

    11. Eskisehir

    12. Administration & Accounting

    13. LoginIT

  • IMP

    LEMEN

    TATIO

    N&

    CO

    NTR

    OL

    Assignment of Strategic Tasks

    Assignment of strategic targets and strategic tasks for every manager

    Deadlines: initial January, afterwards quarterly

    3/22/2010 35Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Task For

    Tar-

    get #

    Responsible Finalization

    Date

    Definition of services and service levels for all services Board 15.1.

    Review and adjustment of all sales materials / websites according to

    service definitions

    Sales 31.1.

    Definition of A- and B-accounts, assignment to board members and AMs Board / Sales 15.1.

    Improvements of CC file new profit center structure, services review, budget controlling tools for trainings and investments

    Con 31.1.

    Netsis / sales file new profit center structure reflectioin Acc Asap

    Prepare sales Germany Sales / Joa 15.1.

    Formalized departmental evaluation criteria HR 15.1.

    Definition of quantitative targets and bonus system for AMs Sales / Board 15.1.

    Transfer nectar projects and employees creative - IT Creative / IT 1.1.

    Setup of organization for running complete website projects IT 31.1.

  • IMP

    LEMEN

    TATIO

    N&

    CO

    NTR

    OL

    Quarterly Review of Targets and Tasks

    Quarterly presentation of managers about reaching individual strategic targets / completing individual strategic tasks

    Presentation in management meetings with decision about followup measures

    3/22/2010 36Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Main Objective Area Availability

    Date

    Nexum Bogazici Software Development Standard Usage (Java) Developm. 31.10.2002 28.02.2003

    Develop & Continue Partnership Relation with MS Partnership 31.09.2002 On-going

    To be Advanced Level IBM Partner Partnership N/A N/A

    Develop and Implement Oracle i-store, Portal builder solutions Project N/A N/A

    Complate Auction Module development : B2C->B2B Developm. 31.10.2002

    Complate Work Done Automation System Developm. 31.11.2002 31.11.2002

    Adaptade to MS .NET tools Developm. 31.11.2002 31.01.2003

    Enrich Operating System solution platforms (XP) System 31.09.2002

    Develop Expertization Level at Implementation of GoldMine CRM tool Project 31.08.2002

    Learn IBM Lotus-Domino products to support E-Learning project and others? Project 31.07.2002

    Learn OLAP Solutions: MIS Project 31.10.2002 31.01.2003

  • IMP

    LEMEN

    TATIO

    N&

    CO

    NTR

    OL

    Strategic Performance Evaluation

    3/22/2010 37Restructuring for Strategic Growth

    Dept. Function Persons Criterion Weight Target fig. Actual fig. Calculation Source Respon. Frequency Range % Sign

    Managem.

    Dept. Man.

    IT Company net sales 13%

    Budgeted net

    sales

    Actual net

    sales

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig. Budget Didem quarterly 50 - 200 +

    Company operating

    P/L 13% Budgeted net P/L Actual net P/L

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig. Budget Didem quarterly -100 - 300 -

    IT capacity usage

    projects/ventures/

    products 13%

    Hs.*25%+#other

    s*70%

    Hs+all

    sysads + all

    others

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Performance

    control Didem quarterly 0 - 250 +

    IT resource usage

    projects/ventures/

    products 13% 100%

    Dept.Res.Use

    d P/V/Pr :

    Res.sched.

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Resource

    control Didem quarterly 50 - 200 -

    IT output quality NA 0.25

    #IT bucks

    alphatesting :

    IT P/V/Pr hrs

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Error report

    Alphatest

    PM's,

    aggregation

    Didem quarterly 0 - 500 -

    Personal + Manag.

    Performance 25% Average 3,0

    Average

    evaluation 1-

    4

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Employee

    evaluation

    Filiz,

    Joachim quarterly 33 - 133 +

    Strategic Target

    Performance 25% Average 3,0

    Average

    evaluation 1-

    4

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Strategy

    review

    Filiz,

    Joachim quarterly 33 - 133 +

    Consulting Consultant Booked Sales 10% 42.298,67

    Amount own

    signed offers

    of month

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig. CRM

    Tlay,

    aggregation

    Didem quarterly 50 - 200 +

    Offer Success 10% 30%

    Signed offers

    month /

    written offers

    month

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig. CRM

    Tlay,

    aggregation

    Didem quarterly 0 - 200 +

    Project Milestones 10% 100%

    Act.days - last

    MS/start :

    Proj.days

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Resource

    control Didem quarterly 75 - 150 -

    Invoiced Sales 10% 38.453,33

    Amount

    invoiced

    sales of

    month

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Workdone

    Summary Didem quarterly 0-200 +

    Resource usage

    projects/ventures/

    products 10% 100%

    All

    Proj.Res.Use

    d P/V/Pr :

    Res.sched.

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Resource

    control Didem quarterly 50 - 200 -

    Rebooking rate 10% 35%

    Signed offers

    old cust.

    month /

    written offers

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig. CRM

    Tlay,

    aggregation

    Didem quarterly 0 - 200 +

    Personal

    Performance 25% Average 3,0

    Average

    evaluation 1-

    4

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Employee

    evaluation

    Filiz,

    Joachim quarterly 33 - 133 +

    Strategic Target

    Performance 15% Average 3,0

    Average

    evaluation 1-

    4

    Actual fig. :

    Target fig.

    Strategy

    review

    Filiz,

    Joachim quarterly 33 - 133 +

  • AG

    END

    AFinancial Crisis and World Recession A New Economic Environment

    A Zero-Base Approach to Strategy Development

    How to Take Advantage Strategic Analysis and Strategic Options

    Suitability, Acceptability and Feasibilty The Evaluation of Strategic Options

    Restructuring Adopting Your Business to a Healthy Growth Strategy

    Strategy Implementation and Control Managing the Workstreams

    Key Success Factors The Role of the Restructuring Team

    3/22/2010 38Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    TEA

    MProject Team

    Project Owner

    Top management and / or company owners

    Steering Committee

    Project owner, board, top management

    Project Management / Project Office

    BIC partner

    Second internal project manager (senior manager) to be provided by client

    Project office staffed by BIC and by client

    Project Team

    Members of client team from all relevant departments

    BIC consultants experienced in restructuring projects and / or relevant workstreams

    Senior managers and specialists from BIC Business Network, under management of BIC project manager

    Experts and interim managers from partner companies in BIC Partner Network, under management of BIC project manager

    3/22/2010 39Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    TEA

    MProject Approach

    Key Success Factors

    Involvement of all relevant parties

    Deep and broad skillsets (expert knowledge) represented in project

    Confidentiality

    Speed and rigid decision and implementation process

    Project Management Requirements

    Deep understanding of all workstreams and project issues

    Application of proven project management methodology

    Project manager acts as initial decision maker for all relevant decisions

    Project Office

    Supports project during all project phases until project completion

    Provides detailed, phase- and workstream-specific project plans, task lists and checklists

    Supports project status reports, status meetings, reports to steering committee, etc.

    Responsible for planning and followup of tasks, timeline, budget, project success

    Responsible for formalized information gathering, documentation, distribution, central point of communication

    Managed by and reporting to project manager

    3/22/2010 40Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    TEA

    MProject Tools

    3/22/2010 41Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • RESTR

    UC

    TUR

    ING

    TEA

    MWhy Restructuring with BIC?

    Deep functional knowledge, especially in accounting, finance, and restructuring

    Hands-on-approach and significant management experience

    Application of solutions according to international standards customized for Turkish businesses

    Comprehensive BIC Business Network and BIC Partner Network

    Highly structured, proven restructuring project management approach

    Commitment to speed and rigid decision and implementation process

    Moderate fees and success-based fee component

    3/22/2010 42Restructuring for Strategic Growth

  • BIC BEHRENDT INTERNATIONAL CONSULTINGDr. Joachim Behrendt

    Phone: +90 212 328 1939Fax: +90 212 328 1933

    www.behrendt.com.trBlog.behrendt.com.tr

    Email: [email protected]