22.07.2013

1

Resources, mathemacis, money and the rest of the world

Horst Lunzer

Dr. Lunzer Energie und Umwelt e.U.

office@drlunzer.eu

Resources

Renewable

Not renewable

Energy resources

Material resources

Renewable resources you can „harvest“ in future generations too (if you take care of the surrounding conditions). Not renewable resources are gone after use!

To get Material resources you always need Energy resources first to receive them.

22.07.2013

2

All graphs showing Exponential curves

World population Worldwide energy demand

Mean global temperature and Grenhousegas concentration

Wheat price

a x

How behaves an exponential curve in nature?

e.g. Influenza epidemic

(A) There is a sort of control or self control; it shows a peak, looks like a Gaussian bell curve, reduction (+/-) gently

22.07.2013

3

(B) A sudden end after a very strong growth

How behaves an exponential curve in nature?

Doubling time

Dt = ---------------- 70

X % Growth

Example: 1,75% anually growth of world population.

Doubling time = 70/1,75 = 40 years

2 n+1

22.07.2013

4

7

8

9.223.372.036.854.780.000

That would be all wheat corns that are harvested since we do so

22.07.2013

5

Population Growth

Energy Resources

Material Resources

Growth of Financial market

Social stability

Ecological devastation

means of livelihood for

future generations

How is money generated?

If you lend money from a bank, Numbers are written somewhere, and so a bank has „invented“ new money.

Interest and compounded interest has to be paid to the bank, an you pay back the money. If you can`t, your property belongs the bank.

So your money you lend is the security of the bank. And therefore the bank is allowed to lend this amount 18 times more to others.

22.07.2013

6

consequences

This system works only, if the amount of money in future is higher than in the past.

Lending procedure and compounded interest produces an exponential curve of growth.

The system only functions if the partners trust in it.

The real value or benefit in this system grows much slower than the amount of money (inflation).

If the difference between real values and virtual money is too large, the system breaks down.

Kondratiev-waves

22.07.2013

7

Einkommen in der Bevölkerung

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Einkommen

In 10%-Steps

„income“

Verwendung des Einkommens

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

freies Kapital

Steuern

Ausgaben

In 10%-Steps

Brings interest Population and state lends money

„minimum income needed to exist“

State balances „income“

free capital taxes expenses

22.07.2013

8

World wide Energy demand in history

Till now in history, the amount of use of an energy carrier was never reduced because a new energy carrier was added (Oil didn't replace coal,....)

1Toe=11,63 MWh

Our main energy carier (40% of all energy) peaks now

22.07.2013

9

Another way to look at the remaining resources

Heavy: oil- Bearing shale

Deepwater Polar Cracking

Baryt

Water pumping

Comes up By itself

22.07.2013

10

Viewing the exploitation of oil as a function of a doubling rate:

22.07.2013

11

22.07.2013

12

22.07.2013

13

22.07.2013

14

22.07.2013

15

22.07.2013

16

22.07.2013

17

22.07.2013

18

22.07.2013

19

22.07.2013

20

If we would share our oil fair, how much everyone could use daily?

7.111.960.000 world population on 1.1.2013

3.995.600.000 tons oil exploitet 2012

Means 661 liter oil/inhabitant yearly or 1,8 l oil daily:

= 0,4 l for 115 g of plastic, medicine, fertilizer, products (Synthetic fibres, CD, PVC, lipstick, glue...)

=0,49 l for heat and electricity production (5 kWh)

=0,08 l for flying (134 pkm/year)

=0,83 l for transport on land and water (e.g. 18,5 km with a car, that needs 4,5 l/100 km)

Questions

Can we change from an growing demand (we only have one more doubling rate to exploit all oil) to an reduceing demand?

Can we replace oil, that deliveres 40% of our energy demand with an other energy carrierier, which one?

Will we share the remaining rest or fight for oil?

Will we have cheap energy in future?

What will hapen to transport? (Today 87-95% of the carriage of goods is based on petrol!)

22.07.2013

21

If we don't develope alternatives for our oil demand.....

Replace oil with gas?

We can win ~20 years. And then?

22.07.2013

22

We have very much coal world wide

If we replace oil with coal, there is a increase of exploitation:

22.07.2013

23

Nuclear energy?

1000 t mine dump/t Uran

18.000 t mine dump/t Uran

Conclusions on not renewable energy cariers

We reached the peak of our main energy carier oil. Our transport system depends mainly on it.

We used the better resources first, the remaining rest on fosil energy sources need more energy and more costs to exploit them.

To get the rest means more environmental damage.

In future energy will get more expensive.

If we replace oil with other fosil energy carrier, the other sources will reach their peaks soon too.

Only a combination of replacement with renewable energy sources and growing energy efficiency could be a solution.

At the moment we need fosil energy to produce RES-sites. We have to use this time-window (~10 a).

22.07.2013

24

Enough RES?

Fosil energy ressources

World wide stock

Worldwide energy demand

Yearly solar radiation on earth surface

Material resources

Copper – static range 32,5 years Ore deposit in earlier days

22.07.2013

25

and today:

The hole is 1 km deep, 4 km in diameter, 2% of the world delivery rate; 2004-2019 0,2% copper ore

A lot of fossil energy is needed to exploit copper

22.07.2013

26

0,2% copper means

500 kg mine dump for 1 kg copper

Mine is closed 2013 because of landslide

22.07.2013

27

Silver

Static range: 13,5 years

World wide exploitation: 20.000 ton/year

Use as „money“ as well as in medicine, LED, PV, lot of futer technologies

Energy needed: 464 MWh/ton

Extraction costs in some mines: ~$30,-/ounce

official market price $20,-/ounce

(but difficult to get it)

€/oz

Rare Earth – range is no problem

but...

22.07.2013

28

Its extraction is an environmental problem

Pollution, waste, radiation

22.07.2013

29

Phoshor

Static range: 90 years

95% for fertilizer (doubles the harvest of food)

But at the moment we have an increase in world population of 2%

2033 the demand will be larger than the supply

Recycling would be necessary (manure, sewage sludge) but is problematic cause of heavy metalls

A problematic resource: Sand!

Not every sand is useable (dessert sand not); fluviatile sand soon gets rare (no figures for range)

Eg. Dubai imports sand from Australia,

Singapur is digging whole indonesian islands away

Last dubling time in 4 to 5 years, now 2012 in one year!. ~22 Mio ton Q-sand in 2011.

More used than oil (in food, cosmetics, electronic, cleaners, fracking) an main use: concrete (1 cement + 2 sand)

22.07.2013

30

Conclusions on not renewable materials

The potential range of a material depends on its concentration

Ore/materials in high concentration are already exploited

Resources in low concentration remain as our future potential

This potential will have more mining dump, will produce more environmental pollution, will need a lot more energy for mineing and will cost much more money

Because fossil energy will run short in future, it is very uncertain that lower concentrations are possible as resources.

A solution could be to close material cycles (eg.Recycling/Reuse)

Not every material is recycleable (contaminations) and therefore not useable for miscellaneous products.

22.07.2013

31

renewable resources Food:

Best fishgrounds are overfished

Best soil is devasted, contamined Lost because of concrete

Our renewable main resource: fresh water

We need clean water for living 1/6 of world population don't have it Pollution is main problem Food production and industy need plenty fresh water War on water ?

22.07.2013

32

Only for short, but most important: Environment

Global warming and environmental stress will change our maps and living

The extinction of a species is a loss which could be important for our survival in future

Worldwide pollution is growing and reduces the quality of living dramatic

Radioactive waste will last longer than mankind, produces cancer, genetic defects,...

Our effects on environment works slow, but sometimes are not reversible anymore

So back to our „finance pressure“ Typical solution for

Kondratieff winter was a world war to destroy material and restart building up again (with our financial system the rich and mighty can win again)

As we have reached for the first time the fossil energy peaks, we can not build up our system as high as it is now

If we risk a world war (and survive), we will not reach a developement standard on the remaining population like now

22.07.2013

33

Further Developement with or without war:

Pollution will increase

Food and industrial production will peak

Gobal warming and climate stress will get stronger

conclusions We sure get a final energy crises on fossil energy

We have to change our energy system to renewable energy, energy efficency (as long as we have fosil energy too)

We also have to reuse and recycle materials (at low energy input)

The finance system must be based on „real worth“ and not on debt (otherwise we will not sucessfully change into cycle systems in time, brings more fairness for the individuals)

Our environment has highest priority

Birth control is necessary and functions if you are educate, free and have your human rights and women rights

High quality of products is better than a big amount of „trash“

All measurements need to be done (and more) in combination

22.07.2013

34

Thank you for listening. (Horst Lunzer)

10.000 people more per hour (world)

In an overpopulation democracy can not survive (Asimov)

Smart growth? = sinking on the Titanic in first class and with taste

You have to control money, energy and food, than you control the whole population (Kissinger)

Money has only the worth if the wished benefit still exists

Happy people are not buying much (brain-research)

Thanks to Martensens for some graphics.