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Resources, mathemacis, money and the rest of the world
Horst Lunzer
Dr. Lunzer Energie und Umwelt e.U.
Resources
Renewable
Not renewable
Energy resources
Material resources
Renewable resources you can „harvest“ in future generations too (if you take care of the surrounding conditions). Not renewable resources are gone after use!
To get Material resources you always need Energy resources first to receive them.
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All graphs showing Exponential curves
World population Worldwide energy demand
Mean global temperature and Grenhousegas concentration
Wheat price
a x
How behaves an exponential curve in nature?
e.g. Influenza epidemic
(A) There is a sort of control or self control; it shows a peak, looks like a Gaussian bell curve, reduction (+/-) gently
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(B) A sudden end after a very strong growth
How behaves an exponential curve in nature?
Doubling time
Dt = ---------------- 70
X % Growth
Example: 1,75% anually growth of world population.
Doubling time = 70/1,75 = 40 years
2 n+1
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7
8
9.223.372.036.854.780.000
That would be all wheat corns that are harvested since we do so
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Population Growth
Energy Resources
Material Resources
Growth of Financial market
Social stability
Ecological devastation
means of livelihood for
future generations
How is money generated?
If you lend money from a bank, Numbers are written somewhere, and so a bank has „invented“ new money.
Interest and compounded interest has to be paid to the bank, an you pay back the money. If you can`t, your property belongs the bank.
So your money you lend is the security of the bank. And therefore the bank is allowed to lend this amount 18 times more to others.
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consequences
This system works only, if the amount of money in future is higher than in the past.
Lending procedure and compounded interest produces an exponential curve of growth.
The system only functions if the partners trust in it.
The real value or benefit in this system grows much slower than the amount of money (inflation).
If the difference between real values and virtual money is too large, the system breaks down.
Kondratiev-waves
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Einkommen in der Bevölkerung
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Einkommen
In 10%-Steps
„income“
Verwendung des Einkommens
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
freies Kapital
Steuern
Ausgaben
In 10%-Steps
Brings interest Population and state lends money
„minimum income needed to exist“
State balances „income“
free capital taxes expenses
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World wide Energy demand in history
Till now in history, the amount of use of an energy carrier was never reduced because a new energy carrier was added (Oil didn't replace coal,....)
1Toe=11,63 MWh
Our main energy carier (40% of all energy) peaks now
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Another way to look at the remaining resources
Heavy: oil- Bearing shale
Deepwater Polar Cracking
Baryt
Water pumping
Comes up By itself
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Viewing the exploitation of oil as a function of a doubling rate:
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If we would share our oil fair, how much everyone could use daily?
7.111.960.000 world population on 1.1.2013
3.995.600.000 tons oil exploitet 2012
Means 661 liter oil/inhabitant yearly or 1,8 l oil daily:
= 0,4 l for 115 g of plastic, medicine, fertilizer, products (Synthetic fibres, CD, PVC, lipstick, glue...)
=0,49 l for heat and electricity production (5 kWh)
=0,08 l for flying (134 pkm/year)
=0,83 l for transport on land and water (e.g. 18,5 km with a car, that needs 4,5 l/100 km)
Questions
Can we change from an growing demand (we only have one more doubling rate to exploit all oil) to an reduceing demand?
Can we replace oil, that deliveres 40% of our energy demand with an other energy carrierier, which one?
Will we share the remaining rest or fight for oil?
Will we have cheap energy in future?
What will hapen to transport? (Today 87-95% of the carriage of goods is based on petrol!)
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If we don't develope alternatives for our oil demand.....
Replace oil with gas?
We can win ~20 years. And then?
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We have very much coal world wide
If we replace oil with coal, there is a increase of exploitation:
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Nuclear energy?
1000 t mine dump/t Uran
18.000 t mine dump/t Uran
Conclusions on not renewable energy cariers
We reached the peak of our main energy carier oil. Our transport system depends mainly on it.
We used the better resources first, the remaining rest on fosil energy sources need more energy and more costs to exploit them.
To get the rest means more environmental damage.
In future energy will get more expensive.
If we replace oil with other fosil energy carrier, the other sources will reach their peaks soon too.
Only a combination of replacement with renewable energy sources and growing energy efficiency could be a solution.
At the moment we need fosil energy to produce RES-sites. We have to use this time-window (~10 a).
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Enough RES?
Fosil energy ressources
World wide stock
Worldwide energy demand
Yearly solar radiation on earth surface
Material resources
Copper – static range 32,5 years Ore deposit in earlier days
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and today:
The hole is 1 km deep, 4 km in diameter, 2% of the world delivery rate; 2004-2019 0,2% copper ore
A lot of fossil energy is needed to exploit copper
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0,2% copper means
500 kg mine dump for 1 kg copper
Mine is closed 2013 because of landslide
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Silver
Static range: 13,5 years
World wide exploitation: 20.000 ton/year
Use as „money“ as well as in medicine, LED, PV, lot of futer technologies
Energy needed: 464 MWh/ton
Extraction costs in some mines: ~$30,-/ounce
official market price $20,-/ounce
(but difficult to get it)
€/oz
Rare Earth – range is no problem
but...
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Its extraction is an environmental problem
Pollution, waste, radiation
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Phoshor
Static range: 90 years
95% for fertilizer (doubles the harvest of food)
But at the moment we have an increase in world population of 2%
2033 the demand will be larger than the supply
Recycling would be necessary (manure, sewage sludge) but is problematic cause of heavy metalls
A problematic resource: Sand!
Not every sand is useable (dessert sand not); fluviatile sand soon gets rare (no figures for range)
Eg. Dubai imports sand from Australia,
Singapur is digging whole indonesian islands away
Last dubling time in 4 to 5 years, now 2012 in one year!. ~22 Mio ton Q-sand in 2011.
More used than oil (in food, cosmetics, electronic, cleaners, fracking) an main use: concrete (1 cement + 2 sand)
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Conclusions on not renewable materials
The potential range of a material depends on its concentration
Ore/materials in high concentration are already exploited
Resources in low concentration remain as our future potential
This potential will have more mining dump, will produce more environmental pollution, will need a lot more energy for mineing and will cost much more money
Because fossil energy will run short in future, it is very uncertain that lower concentrations are possible as resources.
A solution could be to close material cycles (eg.Recycling/Reuse)
Not every material is recycleable (contaminations) and therefore not useable for miscellaneous products.
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renewable resources Food:
Best fishgrounds are overfished
Best soil is devasted, contamined Lost because of concrete
Our renewable main resource: fresh water
We need clean water for living 1/6 of world population don't have it Pollution is main problem Food production and industy need plenty fresh water War on water ?
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Only for short, but most important: Environment
Global warming and environmental stress will change our maps and living
The extinction of a species is a loss which could be important for our survival in future
Worldwide pollution is growing and reduces the quality of living dramatic
Radioactive waste will last longer than mankind, produces cancer, genetic defects,...
Our effects on environment works slow, but sometimes are not reversible anymore
So back to our „finance pressure“ Typical solution for
Kondratieff winter was a world war to destroy material and restart building up again (with our financial system the rich and mighty can win again)
As we have reached for the first time the fossil energy peaks, we can not build up our system as high as it is now
If we risk a world war (and survive), we will not reach a developement standard on the remaining population like now
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Further Developement with or without war:
Pollution will increase
Food and industrial production will peak
Gobal warming and climate stress will get stronger
conclusions We sure get a final energy crises on fossil energy
We have to change our energy system to renewable energy, energy efficency (as long as we have fosil energy too)
We also have to reuse and recycle materials (at low energy input)
The finance system must be based on „real worth“ and not on debt (otherwise we will not sucessfully change into cycle systems in time, brings more fairness for the individuals)
Our environment has highest priority
Birth control is necessary and functions if you are educate, free and have your human rights and women rights
High quality of products is better than a big amount of „trash“
All measurements need to be done (and more) in combination
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Thank you for listening. (Horst Lunzer)
10.000 people more per hour (world)
In an overpopulation democracy can not survive (Asimov)
Smart growth? = sinking on the Titanic in first class and with taste
You have to control money, energy and food, than you control the whole population (Kissinger)
Money has only the worth if the wished benefit still exists
Happy people are not buying much (brain-research)
Thanks to Martensens for some graphics.