Resource and Limit of GrowthResource and Limit of Growth:An Introduction:An Introduction

Manish Kr. SemwalManish Kr. SemwalGMISGMIS

Basic QuestionsBasic Questions

• Is there a limit for natural resources?• Can society operate without natural resources?• Is there an interrelationship between resources?• Is there an interrelationship between the rich and the poor?• What is globalization?• What is “sustainable development”?• How can we create a world with a balance in economic

activities, social stability, and environmental quality?

The Limit to Growth The Limit to Growth

Natural resources

Processingand use

Waste and pollution

Sources Society Sinks

The human population and economy depend upon constant flows of raw materialssuch as air, water, mineral, fossil fuel from earth. The human society use thoseresources to produce product for consumption. The processes constantly emit wasteand pollution back to the earth. The limit to the ability of the planetary sources to provide those stream of material and energy, and limits to the ability of the planetarySinks to absorb the pollution and waste are limits to growth for the human society.

In other words, the limits to growth are limits to the flow of materials and energyneeded to keep the society functioning.

throughput throughput

Food Determine ByFood Determine By

• 1. Socio- Cultural Setup• 2. Economical Benefits• 3. Ecological Need

The First ConclusionThe First Conclusion

• Human use of many essential resources and generation of many kinds of pollutants have already surpassed rates that are physically sustainable. Without significant reductions in material and energy flows, there will be in the coming decades an uncontrolled declined in per capita food output, energy use, and industrial production.

The Second ConclusionThe Second Conclusion

• This decline is not inevitable. To avoid it, two changes are necessary. The first is a comprehensive revision of policies and practices that perpetuate growth in material and energy consumption (supply-side management). The second is a rapid, drastic increase in the efficiency with which materials and energy are used (demand-side management).

The Third ConclusionThe Third Conclusion• A sustainable society is still technically and economically

possible. Based on the principle of sufficient economy, it could be much more desirable than a society that tries to solve its problem by constant expansion. The transition to a sustainable society requires a careful balance between long and short term goals, and between economics, social, and environmental viability. It emphasis on sufficiency, equity, and quality of life rather than on quantity and outputs. It require more than technology; it also requires maturity, compassion, and wisdom to manage the society.

Sustainable Development Sustainable Development ModelModel

Social

Economic Environment

(based on deep ecology)

(based on sustainable economy)

(based onAppropriate technology)

The Underlying Concepts for The Underlying Concepts for Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

• The concept of Sustainable Economy• The concept of Deep Ecology• The concept of Appropriate Technology

and Clean Production

Characteristics of a Sustainable Characteristics of a Sustainable EconomyEconomy

• Strives for constant GDP (growth in some area of the economy, shrinkage in the others)

• Stresses product durability, avoid throwaway (disposable) product

• Emphasis efficiency in resources use to ensure long-term supplies

• Minimizes waste and pollution in the total system, relying on reduce, reuse, recycling

• Minimize transportation by decentralize certain production

• Strives for equitable distribution of wealth

The Concept of Deep EcologyThe Concept of Deep Ecology

• Deep ecology– Harmony with nature– All nature has intrinsic

worth/biospecies equality– Simple material need (for

the purpose of self realization)

– Earth “supplies” limited– Doing with

enough/reuse/recycling– Social equality– Diversity

• Dominant view– Dominance over nature– Natural environment as

resources for human– Materialism– Economic growth for the

purpose of self-demand– Earth “supplies” unlimited– High technological progress as

solution for resources and waste

– Consumerism– National/centralized

community

Characteristics of Appropriate TechnologyCharacteristics of Appropriate Technology• Machines size are compatible with human• Man-machine interaction is simple• Decentralized uses of material and energy• Based on local resources• Use renewable resources whenever possible• Efficient use of energy and material• Less waste or pollution• Less capital intensive• Stress meaningful work, allowing workers to perform a variety of

tasks• Product are generally for local consumption• Product are durable, interchangeable, recyclable, reusable• The means of production are compatible with local

norms/culture/lifestyle

GlobalizationGlobalization

Producer Consumergoods, services, recruitment

Labour, consumption

Natural Environment

resources

resources Pollution/waste

Pollution/waste

International Agreements and politics

Arousing more

consumption

Technology

International money market

reinvestment

investment

Major Challenges to SustainabilityMajor Challenges to Sustainability

-greenhouse gases-use of toxic materials

-contaminated land-urban and minority

unemployment

-industrial emission-contaminated water

-lack of sewage treatment

-scarcity of materials-insufficient reuse

And recycling

-overexploitation ofRenewable resources

-overuse of waterFor irrigation

-migration to cities-lack of skilled workers

-income inequality

-population growth-discrimination

-dislocation

-deforestation-overgrazing

-soil loss

-dung and woodBurning

-lack of sanitation-ecosystem destruction

Pollution Depletion Poverty

Developedeconomies

Emergingeconomies

Survivaleconomies

A Framework for Sustainable Enterprise ManagementA Framework for Sustainable Enterprise Management

social

economic

environmentsufficiency

efficiencyconsistency

sustainability

“eco-justice”

“eco-efficiency”“socio-efficiency”

Problems: over-consumption, resources depletionSolutions: - fair resources allocation - equal access rights - redirection of consumer behavior

Problems: poverty, income disparitySolutions: - greening the supply chain - efficient income distribution

Problems: pollution, externalitiesSolutions: - innovative technology - pollution reduction

Population GrowthPopulation Growth

Year

Popu

latio

n

in B

illio

ns

Birt

hs &

Dea

ths

per 1

000

per Y

ear

Total Population AddedTotal Population AddedM

illio

ns o

f Peo

ple

Add

ed p

er Y

ear

Industrial ProductionIndustrial Production

Year

2004 Projection for 1900 - 2004 Projection for 1900 - 21002100

Resources

Population

Pollution

Food

One Index of Overshoot - the One Index of Overshoot - the Global Ecological FootprintGlobal Ecological Footprint

Year

Num

ber o

f Ear

ths R

equi

red

Reserve Lifetimes in Reserve Lifetimes in Limits to Limits to GrowthGrowth

Nonrenewable Resources - Petroleum• Known Global Reserves: 455 x 109 bbls (US Bureau of

Mines)• Static Index: 31 years• Static Index with 5 Times Known Reserves: 155• Average Projected Annual Growth Rate (%): 3.9• Exponential Index: 20 years• Exponential Index with 5 Times Known Reserves: 50• Of course the actual nonrenewable resource availability

in the next few decades will be determined by factors much more complicated than can be expressed by either index.

The Challenge of Man’s FutureThe Challenge of Man’s Future• Within a period of time which is very short compared with

the total span of human history, supplies of fossil fuels will almost certainly be exhausted. This loss will make man completely dependent upon waterpower, atomic energy, and solar energy for driving his machines. There are no fundamental physical laws which prevent such a transition, and it is quite possible that society will be able to make the change smoothly. But it is a transition that will happen only once during the lifetime of the human species. .. if machine civilization should, because of some catastrophe, stop functioning, it will probably never again come into existence.

•Thank You all • Manish Kr. Semwal