resilient by nature update 27012017

Resilient by Nature Innova&ve Approach Towards Climate Change Impact Solu&ons

Marco Pluijm Senior Specialist Port & Marine ⏐ Experience Based Solu<ons

27 01 2017 UPDATE

Climate Change Impact Extreme Weather Impact in the Media


NatCatSERVICE

© 2016 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at February 2016

Natural loss events worldwide 2015 Geographical overview

1,060Loss events

Source: Munich Re, NatCatSERVICE, 2016

DroughtUSA, Jan–Dec

EarthquakeNepal, 25 Apr

Winter Storm NiklasEurope, 30 Mar–1 Apr

Severe stormsUSA, 7–10 Apr

Typhoon MujigaeChina,1–5 Oct

Severe stormsUSA, 24 Dec–2 Jan 2016

EarthquakePakistan, Afghanistan, 26 Oct

Heat waveIndia, Pakistan,May–Jun

TornadoChina, 1 Jun

Winter stormAustralia, 19–24 Apr

Flash floodsChile, 23–26 Mar

Flash floodsGhana, 2–5 Jun

FloodsMalawi, Mozambique,Jan–Mar

LandslideGuatemala, 1 Oct

Flash floodsUSA, 2–6 Oct

Winter stormUSA, 16–25 Feb

WildfiresUSA, 12 Sep–8 Oct

Heat waveEurope,Jun–Aug Typhoon Soudelor

China, Taiwan, 2–13 Aug

Meteorological events(Tropical storm, extratropical storm, convective storm, local storm)

Hydrological events(Flood, mass movement)

Climatological events(Extreme temperature, drought, forest fire)

Geophysical events(Earthquake, tsunami, volcanic activity)

Selection ofcatastrophes

Loss events

Severe stormsUSA, 23–28 May

FloodsUnited Kingdom,Dec

Natural Loss Events Worldwide 2015

Climate Change Impact


Much Faster, More Intense

Ra#onale : Climate Change Impacts come much faster and are more intense than originally an#cipated for Tradi#onal project based plan and design of coastal infrastructure is no longer adequate Urgent need for another, more effec#ve, system based, holis#c approach


Climate Change puts Pressure on Design Data

•  Design Data are based on trend analyses and scenarios

•  All trends show considerable varia#on •  Actual changes in trends are only included aEer

considerable #me

•  Trend Breaches are by defini#on not included

•  Data are therefore basically outdated when it comes to accelerated climate change


Ra#onale : When extreme weather and hurricanes hit an area, most aJen#on goes to the damage they cause Hardly or no aJen#on is given to those areas which have been hit too, but facing hardly any damage and the natural ability to recover quickly Resilient by Nature is about what can be learned from those systems and how to translate their characteris#cs to other areas which are less resilient by themselves

Resilient by Nature


Dauphin Island : •  Barrier Island in the Mississippi Delta •  Located about 6 km offshore •  Natural barrier island and sand spit •  Popula#on approx. 1400 inhabitants.

Hurricanes which have hit Dauphin

Island

Year Name 1979 Frederic 1985 Elena 1997 Danny 1998 Georges 2004 Ivan 2005 Katrina 2012 Isaac

The Example of Dauphin Island, USA


overflow during the event

Erosion and deposition process

situation before and after the event

•  “Unlike typical storm surge effects on a mainland coastline and affected waterways, on an island the surge moves around and over the land mass without the mounding up of water experienced on the mainland.“

•  “Storm surge and waves were not high enough to destroy many of the elevated homes on the less-‐protected western end of the populated part of the island”

The Example of Dauphin Island, USA Effec<veness / Post Katrina Impact Assessment

Ref. NOAA, Pilebuck and wikipedia.org/wiki/Dauphin_Island,_Alabama#Hurricanes Marco Pluijm Senior Specialist Port & Marine ⏐ Experience Based Solu<ons

Resiliency Quality Features : •  Relevant processes and data have been analyzed and assessed

•  Characteris#cs which can be translated into climate change impact resilient breakwaters in other regions and climates

•  Supported with similar cases known within the area of origin itself

and from elsewhere •  The rela#ve small footprint also limits direct storm impact on the

dry surface area

Ref. USGS

Extreme Impact Resilient Breakwater


Other Systems with Proven Natural Resiliency Eco-Shields / Mangroves

Ref. Mekong Delta, K. Schmitt, 2010


Eco-‐shields / Mangroves Effec<veness

www.nature.org/media/oceansandcoasts/mangroves-‐for-‐coastal-‐defence.pdf


Resiliency Quality Features : •  Effec#ve with regard to Wave Impact Reduc#on (physical distance

and mangrove type dependent)

•  Not effec#ve with regard to Accelerated Sea Level Rise

•  Suitable for similar marine habitat condi#ons elsewhere

•  Vulnerable for changes in ambient condi#ons, such as temperature and silta#on

•  Not direct suitable for other climate zones

USGS

Eco-‐shields / Mangroves


Extreme Impact Resilient Eco-‐Polder •  Polder type, diked area as extreme impact relief facility (buffer)

•  Designed to get flooded under extreme condi#ons by means of spilling levees or weirs

•  Allowing the water to come in controlled, thus reducing and slowing down the direct impact on the mainland

•  Adequate layout and vegeta#on in the polder enhances overall effec#veness and impact resiliency

•  Applying Sustainable Dikes improves impact resiliency, enhances embedding in the natural habitat and creates value added benefits


Resiliency Quality Features : •  Well tested, global concept with basically very few restric#ons

•  Extensive research has been done such as in Northern Germany [Ref. H.D. Niemeyer, 2001]

•  Extremely effec#ve in terms of wave and water level set up reduc#on


Extreme Impact Resilient Eco-‐Polder

Other Systems with Similar Impact Resiliency Quali<es

www.biorock.org/content/gallery-random-biorock-shots

www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/aug/08/

Ref : www.mumm.ac.be/NL/Monitoring

Other systems with natural built in resiliency with regard extreme weather impacts are : •  Coral Reefs / Ar#ficial Reefs

In analogy with hurricane shaped barriers •  Sequen#al Breakwaters

in analogy with mega-‐ripples

•  Salt Marshes

In analogy with mangroves In principle within the same window of opportunity as the the systems just presented


The “Resilient by Nature” Approach •  Learn from systems with proven built in natural resilience in terms

of dimensions, behaviour, relevant processes, etc.

•  Translate their characteris#cs to other places which are equally exposed but less resilient

•  On the basis of an holis#c approach, Implement as systems instead of individual, engineered projects

•  The “Resilient by Nature” toolbox provides a number of systems with built in natural resilience, maximum flexibility and internal back-‐up and redundancy

•  Resilient by Nature is a Game Changer


“Resilient by Nature” versus “Building with Nature” Building with Nature •  Method for coastline maintenance, on a project by project basis •  Planned and designed according to – by defini#on -‐ dated design guidelines in

a rapid changing climate •  Puts a heavy burden on the environment due to it’s repe##ve and cyclic

nature •  By defini#on not a game changer, nor sustainable Resilient by Nature •  Solu#on provider, based on enhancing natural coastal features and

implementa#on of coastal system components with proven resiliency •  Planned and designed according to their full scale characteris#cs •  Adding those unique capabili#es to other, more vulnerable coastal systems •  Enhancing both safety and overall resiliency on a permanent basis •  Game changing, sustainable approach


Economy

•  The economics behind what’s feasible or not will mainly be determined on the basis of what’s already there, how much modifica#on is required and what natural resiliency component(s) to add, including related planning and #me scales

•  Balanced against the immense costs of the material and immaterial damage each major extreme weather event causes

•  Offers the poten#al of substan<al addi<onal social and economic benefits from mul#-‐usage of the implemented systems, such as the extreme impact resilient breakwater, eco-‐polder system, eco-‐shield, etc.

•  The Resilient by Nature approach is flexible, fully scalable to local

needs, means and possibili#es, thanks to its unique natural system based characteris#cs


Source : Daily News

Source : Daily News

•  Given the rapid changes and related uncertain#es and unknowns in

design data, there is definitely a need for a systems experience based, holis#c approach

•  Resilient by Nature offers the tools and experience to follow and implement such an approach

•  Un#l full acceptance, it is recommended to compare and check what

has been planned and designed conven#onally with the Resilient by Nature iden#fied systems and solu#ons and modify where applicable

•  The Resilient by Nature Reference Document is available for poten#al partners

Resilient by Nature, the Way Forward

Email : [email protected] Marco Pluijm Senior Specialist Port & Marine ⏐ Experience Based Solu<ons

resilient by nature update 27012017

Environment