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Page 1: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

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ECOPETROL

Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth Challenges

October 2016

Page 2: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

1

Disclaimer This document was prepared by Ecopetrol S.A. (the “Company” or “Ecopetrol”) with the purpose of providing the market and interested parties certain financial and other information of the Company.

This document may include strategy discussions and forward-looking statements regarding the probable development of Ecopetrol’s business. Said projections and statements include references to estimates or expectations of the Company regarding its future and operational results. Potential investors and the market in general should be aware that the information provided herein does not constitute any guarantee of its performance, risks or uncertainties that may occur or materialize. Actual results may fluctuate and differ from those provided herein due to several factors outside of the control of the Company. Such forward-looking statements speak only as at the date in which they are made and neither Ecopetrol nor its advisors, officers, employees, directors or agents, make any representation nor shall assume any responsibility in the event actual performance of the Company differs from what is provided herein. Moreover, Ecopetrol, its advisors, officers, employees, directors or agents shall not have any obligation whatsoever to update, correct, amend or adjust this presentation based on new information or events occurring after its disclosure. Additional factors that may affect the future results of Ecopetrol are set forth in the section entitled “Risk Factors” in the Company’s Report on Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2015 and in the Company’s other filings with Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), which are available at www.sec.gov.

This presentation is for discussion purposes only and is incomplete without reference to, and should be viewed solely in conjunction with, the oral briefing provided by Ecopetrol. Neither this presentation nor any of its contents may be used for any other purpose without the prior written consent of Ecopetrol.

Page 3: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

2

Agenda

1. Key Highlights

4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update

3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth

2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude Oil Price Environment

Page 4: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

3

Key Highlights

World-class operator of mature assets and a national

leader

Financial excellency and solid corporate governance

Vertically-integrated with diversified revenues

Decreasing lifting cost: 2014: USD$11.23/bl, 2015: USD$7.39/bl and LTM(1): USD$6.1/bl

80% developed proved reserve base (total oil and gas reserves: ~1.8 bn barrels as of December 31st, 2015)

CAGR(2) production of 7.9% (2008 – 2015)

Main Oil (58%) & Gas (60%) Colombian producer

2015/2014 Revenues breakdown(3): Upstream: (49.0%/54.4%), Downstream: (42.9%/40.3%) and Midstream: (8.1%/5.2%)

Largest Ownership of Mid/Downstream infrastructure

Reficar: optimizing feedstock and more valuable mix of products

Majority shareholder support: no dividend distribution in 2016

Discipline of capital and new engineering & projects leadership

Investment Grade(4) despite challenging crude oil price scenario

(1)LTM: Last twelve months, July 2015 to June 2016 (2)CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate (3)Third parties revenues by business segment under IFRS (4)Moodys: Baa3 Negative outlook, S&P: BBB Negative outlook and Fitch: BBB Negative outlook

Page 5: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

4

Ebitda

2015

Crude Basket (USD$/bl)

Savings (USD$ Bn)

1Q 2016 2014

Key Financial Metrics: Resilience to Lower Crude Oil Price Environment

2Q 2016 1Q 2016 1H 2016 1H 2015

4.5 (1) 4.1(1) 8.7

10.3

38.1 25.1 30.7 47.9 (35.9%) (52%)

(9.8%)

Net Income 0.78 (1) 0.36(1) 1.2 (1) 1.7 (1) (29.4%) (117%)

Figures in COP$ Tn except where otherwise noted

(1) Figures under Colombian IFRS (2) Versus the same period a year ago. 1Q 2016: COP$421 Bn expressed in USD$ using the 1Q-16 average exchange rate of COP$3,249 to USD$1. 2Q2016: COP$392 Bn expressed in USD$ using the 2Q2016 average exchange rate of COP$2,994.68 to USD$1 (3) 1H2016: COP$813 Bn expressed in USD$ using the 1H2016 average exchange rate of COP$3,121.86 to USD$1

Ebitda margin 38.5% 39.5% 38.9%

39.2%

(15.5%)

0.13 (2) 0.26 (3) 0.13 (2)

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5

2015 Balance

Proven Reserves 2015 (1)

Costs Optimization

Natural Gas Consumption

Infill Drilling

Foreign Exchange Rate effect over Cost

45% Drop in Sales Prices

2,084 1,849 -251

-404 154 -55

275 47 -1

1P 2014 Efecto Precio(3) ProyectosRevaluados(4)

Consumo Internode Gas(4)

1P 2015

Net Addition: 16 MMBOE

1P 2014 Production Price Effect(3) Additions(4) Revisions(4) Optimization(4) Consumption of

nat. gas(4) Subsidiaries 1P 2015

Million of barrels of oil equivalent (MMBOE)

Source: Ecopetrol (1) SEC methodology (2)Reserve replacement ratio in 2015: 6% (3) Sensitivity over Ecopetrol´s 2014 volumes using 2015 prices 4) Figures for Ecopetrol S.A.

Good Production Performance

Page 7: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

6

Agenda

1. Key Highlights

4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update

3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth

2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude Oil Price Environment

Page 8: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

7.4

4.8 5.4 6.1

0

2

4

6

8

2015 1T 2016 2T 2016 U12M 2015 1Q 2016 (1) 2Q 2016(1) LTM (1)

7

(1) Q1 and Q2 lifting cost has low seasonality; LTM: Last twelve months, July 2015 to June 2016 (2) Dilution factor: percentage of diluent to dilute the total volume of heavy crudes and extra- heavy crude standardized to Castilla quality conditions (12 API). ( 3) cST: centistock. The exchange rates used for the calculation of the costs are: 2014 (COP$2,000 to US$1), 2015 (COP$2,743 to US$1), 1Q-2016 (COP$3,249 to US$1) and 2Q 2016 (COP$2,994.7 to US$1). Cost reductions reflects the impacts of COP$/USD$ devaluation, austerity measures and activity reduction.

Sustained Lifting and Dilution Cost Reduction Enhances Heavy Crude Profitability

Key drivers for lifting reduction: Optimized subsurface and above ground

maintenance

Increased self generation with less expensive fuels and lower tariffs

Optimization of fluids treatment process and lower fees

Dilution and transportation cost reduction by means of: Greater use of multipurpose pipelines vs. trucking

Use of light crude oil as diluent (from Floreña, La

Punta and Ocelote fields)

Pipeline transportation of crudes with higher viscosity, from 300 cSt to 405 cSt.(3)

20.0% 18.5% 17.8%

16.8%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

2014 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016

Lifting cost USD$/barrel

Dilution factor % (2)

(18%)

Page 9: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

- 5.7

12.1

1.8

2014 2015 2016

Viscosity: 200 cSt 300 cSt 405 cSt 600 cSt

Years

Dilution Costs in heavy and extra heavy crude as structural reduction example

Optimization Emphasis

Dilution factor decrease (% diluent / Normalized heavy crude volume)

20.0%

18.5%

16.8%

2014 2015 Jun-2016

Decrease of 210 trucks per day and 608,000 Km/year

Take advantage of the increase in capacity of Pozos-Galán

pipeline

Codilution

Increase of cSt

Ah

orr

o D

ilu

ye

nte

KB

D

Dilution Optimization Strategies

Dilution total savings

Real efficiency Dec of 2016 Forecast

394

332

726

177 177

509 903

2015 2016 Acumulado

CO

P B

n

Accumulated D

iluen

t Sa

vin

gs

MB

D

Page 10: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Significant drilling-days reduction Standardized designs and operations

Cutting-edge drilling technology

Operational discipline

Fee renegotiation and improved

procurement process

Upstream Optimization Achievements

Drilling Days in the Company´s Main Fields

34 36

26 26

19 21

14 14

Castilla Chichimene

2014 2015 2016 to date Record* 2015

12

Production: 1H-2016: 126 mbod

2015: 123 mbod 2014: 104 mbod

Production: 1H-2016: 76 mbod

2015: 78 mbod 2014: 56 mbod

(44%) (42%)

9

Record *2016

*Record: Lowest number of drilling days accomplished

Page 11: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

4.0 3.4 3.4 3.8

2014 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016

7.2 4.4 3.5 4.3

2014 2015 1Q 2016 2Q 2016

Initiatives Aimed to Increase Efficiency and Reduce Cost in Down & Midstream

Refining cash cost(1)

USD$/barrel

Downstream:

Strategies for optimization in maintenance and support services

Renegotiation of contracts and new procurement strategies

Midstream:

Lower operating cost on maintenance materials, security, attention of contingencies.

Transportation cost (1)

USD$/barrel

The exchange rates used for the calculation of the costs are the following: 2014 (COP$2,000 to USD$1), 2015 (COP$2,743 to USD$1) , 1Q-2016 (COP$3,249 to USD$1) and 2Q 2016 (COP$2,994.7 to US$1). Cost reductions reflects the impacts of COP$/USD$ devaluation, austerity measures and activity reduction by Ecopetrol.

(5%)

(40%)

10

Page 12: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

11

152

87

110 8 53

213

172

214

1,009

Cost P&L ECP 2015 Capex Dilution & Sales Subsidiaries Total 2015

Supply Labor CostsAssociation Contracts Inventories OptimizationConsulting, Trucks, Energy

2015 Savings*

USD$ Millions

Fixed and Variable Costs

192

Operational Expenses

68

Total Savings 260

Cost Efficiencies: Opportunities Realized since 2015

410

1H 2016 Additional

Savings

USD$ Millions

2015: COP$2,800 million expressed in USD$ using the 2015 average exchange rate of COP$2,743 to USD$1. 1H 2016: COP$813 Bn expressed in USD$ using the 1H2016 average exchange rate of COP$3,121.86 to USD$1

Dilution and

Logistics

2016 Savings

Target:

USD$512

million

Page 13: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Δ 2014 - 2016

%

CAPEX 2011 - 2016

USD$ Billions

12

(25%)

2016 Budget adjusted

3.0

1.0

2012

8.7

4.1

2.1

1.3

1.0

0.2

2011

9.4

3.9

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.2 0.0 0.5 0.0

0.0

0.0

8.7

4.3

1.9

1.0

1.4

0.1

2013

9.2

4.1

1.9

1.7

1.3

0.2

1.0

0.4

0.3

0.0 0.3

2015

6.7

3.3

1.8

0.9

0.6

0.1

2014

(66%)

Corporate

Downstream Exploration

Midstream Others *

Production

Production

Downstream

Exploration

Corporate

(76%)

(80%)

(49%)

(56%)

(77%)

Capital Discipline: Capex Adjustment since 2015 with Significant Cuts

Midstream

* Others : contingent investments

CAPEX 2011-2016

USD$ Bn

Upstream 26

Downstream 11

Midstream 7

Corporate and others

2

TOTAL 46

Page 14: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Agenda

1. Key Highlights

4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update

3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth

2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude Oil Price Environment

Page 15: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

14

1. Challenging price

scenario

2. Ambitious saving

targets

0.3

0.8

0.7

1.1

0

1

USD (Bn)

+38%

+120%

Aug 2016 2015

Target 2020

USD 1,5 Bn

Real / Estimated

Initial Goal

3. Efficient cost

reductions

9.1

7.1

6.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

2015 2014 FC 2016

-18%

COP (Bn)

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

01

20

15

03

20

15

05

20

15

07

20

15

09

20

15

11

20

15

01

20

16

03

20

16

05

20

16

07

20

16

09

20

16

Brent USD/bl

-31% -61%

CAGR

Since 2014, cash flow focus has been the pillar of a solid financial basis

Page 16: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Recent Exploratory Discoveries and 2016 Activity Basin Potential – Main Countries

ECOPETROL AMERICA • 2Q 2016: APPRAISAL

WELL ‘LEON 2’ UNDER EVALUATION

• 3Q 2016: DRILLING “WARRIOR” WELL

(OPERATOR: ANADARKO)

Orca

GoM West

Mid Magdalena

Lower Magdalena

Llanos

GoM East

Campos

Potiguar

OFF-SHORE COLOMBIA 2014: ORCA discovery 2015: KRONOS

discovery 4Q 2016: BEGINNING

DRILLING OF “PURPLE ANGEL-1” WELL

Colombia:OffShore

ON-SHORE COLOMBIA 2014: discoveries: CPO

09, Cacica y Tiribita 2015: discoveries: CPO

(Nueva Esperanza 2 and 3)

2Q 2016: DRILLING

“PAYERO-1” WELL

Beginning of the Cardon seismic program with a target of 228 km 2d seismic

CPO-09

Brazil

North America

Potential Discovery per Basin (MMBOE) (1)

50 to 100

100 to 250

250 to 1000

> 1000

(1) Source: Wood Mackenzie. Ecopetrol Exploration Review 2015

Kronos Colombia

ECOPETROL BRAZIL

2Q: PROCESSING 854 Km2 OF 3D SEISMIC POT-M-567 BLOCK

NISCOTA- PAYERO-1

CARDON

15

REASSESSMENT OF MATURE FIELDS INTEGRATING EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION TEAMS

Exploration: Pursuing high-value and quality prospects

Page 17: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Start up

Jul/2016

Stabilization

2H 2016

Optimal Operation

2017

Refining: Completion of Reficar's start up

16

The start up of the 34 units of the modernization project was completed in July

Begin of the stabilization stage and performance tests:

• Design capacities test

• Performance and operational limit verification

• Economic benefit maximization

Page 18: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

60%

35%

2%

3%

Output

Propylene

LPG

Naphta &Gasoline

Mid-

Distillates

Bottoms

Reficar

Downstream: Improved Refining Capacity; High-Value Products and Clean Fuels

17

Processing ~100 MBD of Heavy Crude, Extra Heavy Crude and Sour

70% local crude and 30% imported crude

International Fuel Quality Standards: Gasoline of less than 50 ppm vs. 2400 ppm and Diesel of 10 ppm vs. 800 ppm of Sulphur

165 KBD

Page 19: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

2016: Ongoing Transformation into a more Efficient and Competitive Company

Capital Discipline

Profitable Barrels

• Focus on capital discipline and cash flow protection • 2016 CAPEX reduction

• Value over volume: 715 mboed targeted production • Sustained Reduction in Operational Costs

• Ecopetrol Group´s savings amounted USD$260 million in 1H 2016(1) Efficiency Focus

Procurement Strategy

• Supply Chain Intervention

Divestment Plan • Divestment program 2016-2017: in 2016 USD$242 million raised from

ISA and EEB(2)

• Proceeds of the Program are not considered in the cash flow planning

18

(1) COP$813 Bn expressed in USD$ using the 1H-16 average exchange rate of COP$3,121.86 to USD$1. (2) ISA: Interconexion Electrica S.A. COP$ 377.08 billion and EEB: Empresa de Energia de Bogota COP$347.8 billion at the exchange rate of COP$3,000 to USD$1.

Page 20: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Ecopetrol´s Employees*

19

Optimizations: Reduction in Direct and Indirect Employees

Ecopetrol´s total employees, including outsourcing, decreased from 53,600 in December 2014 to 28,400 in June 2016 (47% reduction)

* Figures correspond to period end. Rounded figures.

9,150 8,700 8,700

44,450

30,300 19,700

2014 2015 2Q 2016

Direct Employees Indirect Employees

53,600

39,000

(47%)

28,400

Page 21: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

2016 Cost-efficient Financing Strategy: ~85% of Requirements Fulfilled

Company Total (%)

Ecopetrol 13,489 75%

Reficar 2,915 16%

Bicentario 561 3%

ODL 323 2%

Bioenergy 165 1%

Ocensa 500 3%

Propilco 0 0%

Total 17,953 100%

(1) Figures expressed in USD$ millions using June 30, 2016 exchange rate. (2) Last Twelve Months EBITDA. (3) February 22, 2016, exchange rate, date of credit resolution. Original amount of the transaction was COP$990 billion.

175

295

300

500

2016 Financing

Remaining Financing

Reopening

Bilateral Loan (ExportDevelopment Canada -EDC)

Bilateral Loan(Bancolombia)

Bilateral Loan (Bank ofTokyo-Mitsubishi)

1,500 - 1,900

Outstanding Debt

USD$ million

2016 Financing Needs

USD$ million

Average life (years) 9.38

Average cost in COP$ 8.63%

Average cost in USD$ 4.67%

Financial Debt/Ebitda(1) (2) 3.25x

1,270

20

(3)

Page 22: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Public Offering

2Q 2016

Data Room Access

2Q 2016

Auction

4Q 2016

Assets Transfer

2Q 2017

Council of Ministers

2Q 2016

Release of Decree

3Q 2016

First Stage

4Q 2016

Second Stage

2017

377

ISA EEB

348

21

2016-2017 Divestment Program: Portfolio Rotation to Generate Cash

2Q 2016 Divestments (COP$ Bn)

Divestments proceeds are not included in our Cash Flow planning Plan 2016-2017: USD$400-USD$900 million

Divestment in Minor Fields

Page 23: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Agenda

1. Key Highlights

4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update

3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth

2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude Oil Price Environment

22

Page 24: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

23

Strict Capital

Discipline

Cash flow focus &

cost efficiency

Transformation

Program

Reserves &

Production

growth

Ecopetrol’s 2020 Corporate Strategy Pillars

Page 25: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

24

-80 -60 -40 -20 0

1. Efficiencies normalized to crude prices, diluent prices and exchange rate.

Upstream Midstream

Dowstream

Ecopetrol S.A.

-30 -20 -10 0

-30 -20 -10 0

-9% -20%

-12% -11%

OPEX

CAPEX

-19%

-9% -8%

-9% -3%

-60 -40 -20 0

-21% -20%

-60 -40 -20 0

-38% -13%

-57% -23%

% Reduction 1H 2016 vs 2015

% Reduction 2015 vs 2014

Fluid treatment cost

(COP/bl)

Energy cost (COP/KWH)

Dilution cost (USD/bl)

Transportation cost

(COP/bl)

Transport maintenance

cost (COP/bl)

Refining cash cost

(COP/bl)

Contract

management

(COP/bl)

Drilling Cost

(USD/PP)

USD

480 MM

USD

340 MM

USD

230 MM

USD

25 MM

USD

150 MM

Total cost reduction USD 1.2 Bn

Improving efficiency and operational indicators (2015-2016)

Page 26: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

25

CAPEX

Reduction

25% between

2014 and 2015

54% between

2015 and 2016

due to challenging

prices

Financial strength

3.0 to 3.5

Gross Debt/EBITDA

ratio

Projects

100% units of the

New Cartagena

Refinery in

operation

Capital Discipline: Lower investments while achieving goals

Page 27: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

26

Surroundings

• New model for

shared

development

•Elimination of

the “division” between

Ecopetrol’s

operation and

communities

Leadership

•18 new Senior

Management

members, out of 20

•Middle Managers

Training

Procurement

• New procurement model

• ˜3400 reduction in

external headcount

• Renegotiation of 4,000

contracts

Transformation Model Changes in leadership, procurement & surroundings relations

Page 28: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

27 (1) Includes OPEX efficiencies and initiatives for revenue maximization

Efficiencies through the Transformation plan(1)

(USD Bn)

0,3

0,8 1,1 1,2 1,4

1,5

0,7 1,1

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Target Accumulated result

+130%

Competitive Growth Operational excellence and additional efficiencies by 2020

Page 29: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

28

Investment level optimization Focus on Upstream vs. Mid & Down

0

10

20

30

@ 70

USD/bl

Ecopetrol Total Capex, 2017-20 (USD Bn)

31%

@ 50 USD/bl Previous plan

(80 USD/bl)

85%

Includes project breakeven reduction from

CAPEX optimization of ~USD 2.0 Bn

(Transformation Plan 2.0)

47

75

12

15 41

10 100

80

60

40

20

0

Capex distribution by segment (%)

2017-2020 2014-2016

Development & Production

Exploration

Mid & Down

Total

Upstream 59% 90%

13

(3,3/year)

17

(4,3/year)

24

(6,0/year)

Profitable production growth Flexible investment plan focused on Upstream

Page 30: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

Business plan secures the company’s profitability and sustainability at 50 USD/bl

44

50

70 70 70

44

50 50 50 50

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Business plan @70 Business plan @50

Brent (USD/bl)

Previous Plan 80

Planning the Strategy at 50 USD/bl

An increase in

prices is not

contemplated

in the financial

plan

Page 31: Resilient and Transitioning to Overcome Growth …...2 Agenda 1. Key Highlights 4. 2017-2020: Business Plan Update 3. 2016: Transitioning to Growth 2. 2015: Navigating the Low Crude

30

715 760

830 870

0

250

500

750

1,000

2020 @ 80

USD/bl

2020 @

70 USD/bl

2020 @

50 USD/bl

Expected

2016

+6%

Production (Mboed)

Growth between 6% and 22% Profitable barrels

EBITDA/barrel at 760 Mboed (USD/bl)

Business

plan

May/2015

16% 22%

7

12

25

30

0

10

20

30

71%

Expected

2016

2020 @

50 USD/bl 2020 @

70 USD/bl 2020 @ 80

USD/bl

257%

328%

Profitable production growth 760 Mboed in 2020 at 50 USD/bl, upturn is subject to price performance

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Profitable production growth Current assets portfolio is the base for 2020 production target

340

49

1839314

340

715

346

69

49

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

26

830

2020 @ 50

USD/bl

760

(mboed)

+6%

Upturn Exploration

45%

2020 @

70

USD/bl

+9%

2016

Plan

Infill Drilling Secondary

Recovery

Basic Tertiary

Recovery

Production breakdown 2020 and comparison at 2016

Source: Ecopetrol

94% on

current

assets

USD 9.0 Bn in development investments between 2017-2020

(USD 2.2 Bn average per year)

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0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Ta

sa

de

Cru

do

(B

PD

)

Incremental

production

through water

injection

Primary

production

Infill

Drilling

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Cru

de

Ra

te (

BO

D)

Incremental

Production

through infill and

water injection

Current recovery factor: 22%

Expected recovery factor: 32%

Current recovery factor 21%

Expected recovery factor: 29%

‘La Cira Infantas’ – Mid-Magdalena Valley – Partnership

‘Yariguí Cantagallo’ – Mid-Magdalena Valley – Direct Operation

Infill and water injection recovery program

since 2005. Reserves increased in 259

Mmboe through the increase of the

recovery factor.

Water injection recovery program since

2009. Reserves increased in 41 Mmboe

through the increase of the recovery

factor.

Profitable production growth Proven ability to add production and reserves through Recovery Factor

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• Infill Wells

• ~USD 790 MM

investment towards

2020

• Infill Wells

• ~USD 1.400 MM

investment towards

2020

Rubiales

• Infill Wells

• ~USD 470 MM

investment towards

2020

Caño Sur

Castilla

• Infill Wells

• ~USD 370 MM

investment towards

2020

Quifa

• Chichimene, Apiay, Sur,

Casabe, Yariguí,

Piedemonte, Lisama,

Palagua, Dina, Hocol

• ~USD 2.850 MM

towards 2020

Other

• Secondary recovery

• ~USD 460 MM

investment towards

2020

La Cira Infantas

Profitable production growth Focus on main development and production assets

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Profitable production growth Colombia´s offshore is the best long term gas supply opportunity

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35

Onshore

Colombia

Offshore

Colombia

Latam

• Mexico

• Ecuador

• Brazil

• Argentina

• Venezuela

Offshore GOM-US

Mature Fields

(Mid-term)

Off-shore

(Mid-longterm)

Estimated reserves growth Financial flexibility will allow further development in the Americas

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36

75

300 50

70

55

110

240

180

720

2017 2020

Operational excellence represents USD 0.7 Bn of impact in EBITDA by 2020

1. Calculated with high impact range of commercialization Source: Ecopetrol, Strategy team analysis ECP - BCG

Reficar Efficiencies

B/meja Efficiencies

Midstream efficiencies

Improved Commercialization

Transportation: Investment

rationalization and profit

maintenance

Downstream: Profit and cashflow

maximization

Commercialization: Increase of

barrel revenue of 1 USD/bl

Profitable growth in Midstream and Downstream Cash flow generation and profit maximization

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Capacity

Thousand barrels per day (mbd)

B/Bermeja

Ayacucho

Santa Marta

Cartagena Coveñas

Vasconia

Apiay

Santiago

Tumaco

Orito

Tenay

Rubiales

Monterrey Araguaney

Cusiana Porvenir

Sebastopol Banadia

Main Pipelines

1,096 1,276 1,301 1,310

1,445

307 307 352 385 385

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 e

Crude Products

Maintenance CAPEX: USD 155 million per year.

EBITDA 2020: USD 2.6 Bn

2017: Transportation of crudes with higher

viscosity: from 405 to 600 cSt.

cSt: centistokes

Midstream, a cash flow source The expansive cycle has been fulfilled

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(USD Bn)

21.3

4.8

16.5

4.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

Sources:

Operating Cash flow

And Divestments

Uses:

CAPEX and Interest

payments

Available cash

@ 50 USD/bl

Additional cash

@ 70 USD/bl

Sources and Uses of cash, 2017-2020

Financial Sustainability Group´s viability at 50 USD/bl and upside with higher prices

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Divestment of non-strategic

assets

Focus on profitable projects

40% Payout

Reduce leverage

Maintain strict

Capital Discipline

Reduce

financial leverage

3.6

2.5

0

1

2

3

4

Target

2020

3,0

2016

Financial strength Reduce Debt/Ebitda and preserve Investment Grade rating

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Segments

Main Pillars

2017-2020 Business plan : Seven main pillars

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Para uso restringido en Ecopetrol S.A. Todos los derechos reservados. Ninguna parte de esta presentación puede ser reproducida o utilizada en ninguna forma o por ningún medio sin permiso explícito de Ecopetrol S.A.